What do you look for physically?

[FantasticDan]

When you're at the track and evaluating horses in the paddock or post parade, what are you looking for? What are the criteria for a horse that's ready to roll vs. one that has no shot?

As a novice bettor with a layman's eye, I really don't know what to look for. Obviously a shiny coat is a sign of good health, but beyond that..

Some horses are bright and bouncy in the paddock, while others have their heads down and look like they'd rather be taking a nap. The latter can be tricksters tho - maybe they're just conserving their energy.. :rolleyes:

Just curious what experienced bettors and horse folk have to say on the topic. :ThmbUp:

[MNslappy]

someone posted this a while back

[jonnielu]

When you're at the track and evaluating horses in the paddock or post parade, what are you looking for? What are the criteria for a horse that's ready to roll vs. one that has no shot?

As a novice bettor with a layman's eye, I really don't know what to look for. Obviously a shiny coat is a sign of good health, but beyond that..

Some horses are bright and bouncy in the paddock, while others have their heads down and look like they'd rather be taking a nap. The latter can be tricksters tho - maybe they're just conserving their energy.. :rolleyes:

Just curious what experienced bettors and horse folk have to say on the topic. :ThmbUp:

Glad to hear that you are interested enough in horse racing to delve into this particular area of analysis. The first thing to consider here is that most horseplayers give this entire subject 0 attention, and only enough thought to dismiss it within 2 seconds of consideration.

The first thing to remember as you enter into this area is that it is not a thing where you compare one horse to the other for which one looks best. This is the biggest mistake handicappers make when they try this, and it cause them to give up real fast. At most major tracks, all of the horses will look pretty good, and those that are in poor condition today are easy enough to spot.

Some will look as if they will surely die in the tunnel, and as they cross the wire four in front, you will swear that there is no way to do this well. But, then you will realize that something caused you to take notice of the horse in the first place, and that is when you will begin to learn.

There is no formula, it can't be tabulated, or anything like that. You are trying to get a sense of the horses spirit. It just hits you, is the only way that I can describe it. It just takes practice, the hard part it realizing that you have received some information, and acting on it.

In 1983, we went to GP to get a look at the TC material in the FOY (if memory serves) after watching Caveat run down the stretch, I remarked to my friends, there is a good Belmont Stakes horse. As I watched Caveat bust through a crack at the top of the lane on Belmont day, I thought I had seen that horse somewhere before.

jdl

[fmolf]

someone posted this a while back
i look for dappling on the hind quarters.....defined muscling in the buttockswith a visible line from the lower thigh up to the top of the back.....and a defined conditioning muscle(the muscle under the belly)

[cj's dad]

Breaking away from the lead pony early on in the post parade and galloping away from the rest.

[Bruddah]

If you will Google "The Body Language of a Race Horse" you will find it for sale on DVD. It's by Bonnie Ledbetter and Chris McCarron. It is the "Gold" standard for information on what a fit and ready horse will demonstrate at the track (or not demonstrate. It's worth every penny you will spend and pay for itself many times over.

I suggest watching it many many times and learning it. The information is invaluable if you are playing at the track :ThmbUp:

[fmolf]

If you will Google "The Body Language of a Race Horse" you will find it for sale on DVD. It's by Bonnie Ledbetter and Chris McCarron. It is the "Gold" standard for information on what a fit and ready horse will demonstrate at the track (or not demonstrate. It's worth every penny you will spend and pay for itself many times over.

I suggest watching it many many times and learning it. The information is invaluable if you are playing at the track :ThmbUp:
I read the book she did with ainslie in the 80's....By the same name i believe.she is excellent god rest her soul......It also helps to make notes on horses appearances so you can compare from race to race,this will help you see if a horse is feeling healthier than last time out.

[Bruddah]

I read the book she did with ainslie in the 80's....By the same name i believe.she is excellent god rest her soul......It also helps to make notes on horses appearances so you can compare from race to race,this will help you see if a horse is feeling healthier than last time out.

In 1999, I caught a $106 winner at Oaklawn, using the physicality taught by this video. The horse was dappled to the max, while dancing on it's toes with his neck arched. I still have the video on 8 track. I suppose I should upgrade to DVD. :D :ThmbUp:

[cmoore]

:ThmbUp:

36-24-36;)

[fmhealth]

As a 100% physicality 'capper (no DRF, no program). This is what I look for.

1- Horse with a energy level that is obvious but controlled.

2- Head must be erect.

3- Tail must be noticeably off the hind quarters. Flat tail horses win far fewer races than their odds would indicate.

4- No sweat whatsoever.

5- Horse must be "on his toes" (aka "The happy horse").

I only bets tracks that give me a good look in the paddock. AP I believe is the best, BEL runs second. Using the above criteria it only takes a few seconds to throwout most entries. Sometimes the entire field can be tossed.

Today was a typical day. Bet four races, first two bets at BEL ran 2nd & 4th. Third bet at AP ran out & the fourth won the fourth at AP(paid $38.00, which is FAR higher than usual).

The fourth at AP is a good example of embracing this strategy. Only two horses looked ready to run. The 2 & 4. The 2 was 18-1 the 4, 2-1. Easy decision. Another benefit is the time I save pouring over & paying for the DRF & track program. I still average around a 25% hit rate, although, unfortunately my ROI remains in the red.

After 50 years playing the horses I find physicality is the "New Frontier" that's as arcane as it is facinating. Best of luck. The money you will save by simply eliminating contenders you ferret-out beforehand will be worth the "price of admission" to this very small cadre of 'cappers.

[46zilzal]

Physicality is dependent upon changes in an INDIVIDUAL as general rules of "look" do not translate across the board.

Over the years I have had seasoned trainers comment to me about this very thing and each one of them agreed it only works in viewing changes of the individual as many horses, based upon the general rules, look horrible and that is THEIR NORMAL.

[Grits]

If the race is on the turf look closely at the animal's gait/step before galloping off in the post parade. Pay attention to the reach of his back hooves, note which horse has greater length of reach in his step. Pay little attention to the entry with the shorter, choppy gait.

If the race is on the dirt, and the track is muddy or sloppy look for the horse who steps onto the track and doesn't turn a hair or flatten its ears. Right away, you'll note some will lighten their step even if only a bit, not liking the slop, and their ears will flatten. The contented runner will gallop on, ready to go, not phased in the least by the rain or the mud.

If you're at Saratoga, watch them along the walking path on the way to the paddock. When horses are walking one behind the other, in line before being saddled, it is easier to observe which is the more fit. Easier to note too, which is the larger in shoulder and hind. The dapples will be evident as well.

If the race is for two year olds, look for the least goofy one in the bunch. If they're fillies, they, quite possibly, will all be goofy. Either way, don't hang over the rail in the paddock. They can flip, jump, attempt to run off and generally create more aggravation for their groom and trainer in 2 minutes than you and I could conjure up in 2 years.

Observing horses is great, its part of what makes being at the track such a tremendous joy. One that far exceeds betting races from home.

Have fun watching them. Learning to do so, will enhance your reading of past performance lines.

Much good luck!

[jonnielu]

As a 100% physicality 'capper (no DRF, no program). This is what I look for.

1- Horse with a energy level that is obvious but controlled.

2- Head must be erect.

3- Tail must be noticeably off the hind quarters. Flat tail horses win far fewer races than their odds would indicate.

4- No sweat whatsoever.

5- Horse must be "on his toes" (aka "The happy horse").

I only bets tracks that give me a good look in the paddock. AP I believe is the best, BEL runs second. Using the above criteria it only takes a few seconds to throwout most entries. Sometimes the entire field can be tossed.

Today was a typical day. Bet four races, first two bets at BEL ran 2nd & 4th. Third bet at AP ran out & the fourth won the fourth at AP(paid $38.00, which is FAR higher than usual).

The fourth at AP is a good example of embracing this strategy. Only two horses looked ready to run. The 2 & 4. The 2 was 18-1 the 4, 2-1. Easy decision. Another benefit is the time I save pouring over & paying for the DRF & track program. I still average around a 25% hit rate, although, unfortunately my ROI remains in the red.

After 50 years playing the horses I find physicality is the "New Frontier" that's as arcane as it is facinating. Best of luck. The money you will save by simply eliminating contenders you ferret-out beforehand will be worth the "price of admission" to this very small cadre of 'cappers.

This is a great example of how two experienced people can see different things, or the same things differently.

I find the paddock view at AP to be poor enough, that I get more out of the post parade. At Belmont, the cameraman may as well have as well have the lense up his butt. They all need to tune up coverage of warmup. This is one area where tracks stupidly offer grandpa's video feed as if everybody can get to the second floor to view with their binoculars anyway. Like many things in racing, it is techniques of the 70's, 40 years later. Still works, but, nowhere near as well as it could.

Anyway, #2 in the 4th did nothing for me, although it did warmup reasonably. The #8 hit me with what I prefer to see, well enough for me to make #8 the TrackSideEye paddock star, and warmup star. I was reluctant to bet the horse, because of post position, so I passed the race.

This race may look completely different to the in-tune tote board analyst. #2 was the only firster in the top 3 ML, only to be completely let go by the handicappers for PT 18-1. Then for the physical man, presented no negatives. There is a living to be had right within these parameters.

I get excited about betting when my top pick hits me from the post parade and warmup.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Physicality is dependent upon changes in an INDIVIDUAL as general rules of "look" do not translate across the board.

Over the years I have had seasoned trainers comment to me about this very thing and each one of them agreed it only works in viewing changes of the individual as many horses, based upon the general rules, look horrible and that is THEIR NORMAL.

You can always depend on most people with really simple jobs to tell you how difficult things are, and how hard they work.
jdl

[eastie]

If you are watching the horses in the paddock, look around for the biggest bettor who is on the fence watching. Stand next to him or as close as possible. Every horse should look over at this person as soon as they come into eyeshot of him. A horse who is sharp and ready to run will be aware of his surrondings. look at the horse's eyes and you will see him try to make eye contact with the big guy. If a horse walks past without looking, he will beable to see them all at the end of the race.
If a horse makes any of those sounds... like when there is a filly around, his mind is elsewhere and he won't run well that day. If they are thinking about fillies...fagettaboutit. It's amazing that someone with this great insight can't even turn the freakin italics off on a computer, but can tell you who just outlooked the field in a filled with 11fast 2 year olds.

[DanG]

Physicality is dependent upon changes in an INDIVIDUAL as general rules of "look" do not translate across the board.
I agree 46;

If I could only bet from viewing the post parade I would be bagging groceries within a month. It’s caused me more trouble then benefit, but I admire anyone who has the talent for it.

Years back there was a man in the Hialeah grandstand who took notes like a stenographer from the walking ring to the warm up. I saw him every single day and eventually struck up a conversation asking him how he retrieved all those notes when they run back. He said he used index cards and alphabetized them / and pulled them for the entries.

He wouldn’t go into great detail what he looked for; but he did talk about ‘change’ was far more important then any general clues about equine health. Of course; change meant you needed to follow a circuit full time to build a catalogue and in those days animals ran more often so it was easier to gather profiles quickly.

Great skill to have; and its edge isn’t going away anytime soon.

BTW-I: The best player I know has his wife retrieve hand written notes as they run back. Maybe we should try and convert our databases to index cards! :D

BTW-II: Yet another opportunity to mention how much I miss those days at Hialeah.

[fmolf]

I agree 46;

If I could only bet from viewing the post parade I would be bagging groceries within a month. It’s caused me more trouble then benefit, but I admire anyone who has the talent for it.

Years back there was a man in the Hialeah grandstand who took notes like a stenographer from the walking ring to the warm up. I saw him every single day and eventually struck up a conversation asking him how he retrieved all those notes when they run back. He said he used index cards and alphabetized them / and pulled them for the entries.

He wouldn’t go into great detail what he looked for; but he did talk about ‘change’ was far more important then any general clues about equine health. Of course; change meant you needed to follow a circuit full time to build a catalogue and in those days animals ran more often so it was easier to gather profiles quickly.

Great skill to have; and its edge isn’t going away anytime soon.

BTW-I: The best player I know has his wife retrieve hand written notes as they run back. Maybe we should try and convert our databases to index cards! :D

BTW-II: Yet another opportunity to mention how much I miss those days at Hialeah.
Most literaturethat i have read..leadbetter...trillis parker...takach all agree that change is very important. If a horse has adull coat for three races then shows up with a shiny dappled one.....or exudes energy one day when he hasn't for the past three races.This would mean readiness.I believe the gentleman who does not handicap would increase his roi by just checking his pp's to make sure that the horse is at the right distance and footing anf realistically placed before he blindly bets.I do not get to the track more than once but i do get some good priced winners using body language and handicapping combined...my success with this method from home is not as good.I do not make many bets but generally do not rely on paddock inspection except to look for severe negative aspects.

I also look for the tail to be hanging off the buttocks and not laying flat.This is the sign of a healthy happy horse.

[Rocklane]

Physical appearance: Shiny coat, fresh track marks.
Equipment change: Blinkers off, rubber tube syringe on.

I have a great ROI with this combination. :D

[fmolf]

Physical appearance: Shiny coat, fresh track marks.
Equipment change: Blinkers off, rubber tube syringe on.

I have a great ROI with this combination. :D


:lol:

[LutherCalvin]

Looking at the horses up close is one of the great joys of going to the track.

I look at the general energy level of the horse.

Is the horse interested and curious about his surroundings?

I look at the mane to see if it is fuzzy and standing up as opposed to flat and listless.

I look to the tail to see if there is a space between it and the rump of the horse.

I like to see a wild excited look in the horse's eyes and how he responds when the jockey gets on board.

[Bruddah]

My favorite is if the horse is switching or popping it's tail from side to side, along with it's ears pinned back. If so, the horse is irritated and a bet against. The tail should be slightly off the rump and pumping up and down.

[BIG HIT]

Like tail off rump on his toe's best of all cantoring.What don't like dull coat,horse has head on out rider's pony.

[Grits]

One poster declares, I've been at this 50 years, and have now found the "new frontier". What occured the other four and a half decades that led you to decide you were moving in the wrong direction? LOL

Not to be outdone, another poster speaks up, "two experienced people can see different things, or the same things differently."

This probably combines 80 years of horseplaying knowledge between two gentlemen, yet, fact is--of the five notes listed by the 100% physicality 'capper, each have been written verbatim in every book authored on the subject. Each chapter shared by every horseplayer across the continent of North America.

Not to rain on you guys' parade or anything with this abundance of knowledge and all but everyone at home looking at their computer screen is seeing the five tell tale signs you've touted--the same signs that are landing you on these double digit winners.

Like fmolf, I don't think I'd throw out my PPs just yet.

And Luther Calvin, thanks, you have some fine observations. Like you, I feel nothing compares to being at the track. I don't care how many years of experience one can boast.

I only have 10 years at the track, and those aren't daily, but damn, whatta I know.:lol:

Some of you guys are hilarious.

"I'm the best, if you don't believe me, just ask me, and I got decades to prove it.":lol:

[fmolf]

One poster declares, I've been at this 50 years, and have now found the "new frontier". What occured the other four and a half decades that led you to decide you were moving in the wrong direction? LOL

Not to be outdone, another poster speaks up, "two experienced people can see different things, or the same things differently."

This probably combines 80 years of horseplaying knowledge between two gentlemen, yet, fact is--of the five notes listed by the 100% physicality 'capper, each have been written verbatim in every book authored on the subject. Each chapter shared by every horseplayer across the continent of North America.

Not to rain on you guys' parade or anything with this abundance of knowledge and all but everyone at home looking at their computer screen is seeing the five tell tale signs you've touted--the same signs that are landing you on these double digit winners.

Like fmolf, I don't think I'd throw out my PPs just yet.

And Luther Calvin, thanks, you have some fine observations. Like you, I feel nothing compares to being at the track. I don't care how many years of experience one can boast.

I only have 10 years at the track, and those aren't daily, but damn, whatta I know.:lol:

Some of you guys are hilarious.

"I'm the best, if you don't believe me, just ask me, and I got decades to prove it.":lol:
:lol: ....exactly....none of us are experts.....i readily admit i am not and use body language as more of an elimination tool,than as a gotta bet this horse tool.
Trillis parkers books have a few intesting and different concepts in them such as the racing muscle running up both hind legs toward the rump.She likes this to be highly defined.then the racing muscle as she calls it is the on the bottom of the stomach running the length of a horses carriage.she likes this to be easily identified,last but most important according to her she likes to see three defined "tootsie rolls" u[ high on a horses back between the saddlecloth and where the hind leg begins on both sides.

[Robert Fischer]

I look for the horse to NOT be fighting the handlers, rearing, resisting. I don't want the handlers or jockey to have to force the horse to move out on the track. I'd prefer the horse not be raining sweat from his kidneys and cream cheesed out in the rear.

If the horses have well established form, that is pretty much it other to note for later if the horse looks like crap or looks like a powerful athlete.

If the horse does NOT have established form, I also weigh more how the body looks and compare the horse physically to his rivals. I also try to get out ahead of them before they go on the track and watch their front legs as they walk to hopefully spot any major confirmation flaws.

all that and I am not a physicality handicapper, but maybe I had 3 FTS maidens going in and now I can toss 1 of them.

[Bruddah]

I didn't see anyone calling themselves experts. I did read those, including me, which had preferences for those things which indicated a fit and ready horse. Yes, some of us have been answering a question(s) by an individual asking for answers. The only know it all has been a handicapper with 10 years experience. If he doesn't like the answers, he should go find a thread on this web site where he might learn something. I doubt that is possible because he knows so damn much. :mad:

[Grits]

He's a she, and she doesn't claim to know a damn bit more than the guy next to her. Never has. She's taking your advice though, for sure. She's gonna hang her head, duck her tail, go back to the corner and keep digging in old threads, hoping she'll learn something.

In the meantime, clue her in on where you read her call anyone an expert? What she did note was--the listed and experienced telltale signs, as she said, are in every book ever printed on the subject. And it doesn't take 50 years at the track to know these. And that's not for herself or for anyone else.

She only has 1,000 posts here, few by comparison to many others. She's grateful to you and thanks you for reminding her to understand her place.

Finally, she hopes you're done.

I didn't see anyone calling themselves experts. I did read those, including me, which had preferences for those things which indicated a fit and ready horse. Yes, some of us have been answering a question(s) by an individual asking for answers. The only know it all has been a handicapper with 10 years experience. If he doesn't like the answers, he should go find a thread on this web site where he might learn something. I doubt that is possible because he knows so damn much. :mad:

[riskman]

You can always depend on most people with really simple jobs to tell you how difficult things are, and how hard they work.
jdl


Are you also the Public Relations manager for Horseplayer U ? If so, you should seriously consider finding a replacement for this position.
"It is a great ability to be able to conceal one's ability" so says Francois de La Rochefoucauld (1613 - 1680), Maxims, 1665

[Bruddah]

He's a she, and she doesn't claim to know a damn bit more than the guy next to her. Never has. She's taking your advice though, for sure. She's gonna hang her head, duck her tail, go back to the corner and keep digging in old threads, hoping she'll learn something.

In the meantime, clue her in on where you read her call anyone an expert? What she did note was--the listed and experienced telltale signs, as she said, are in every book ever printed on the subject. And it doesn't take 50 years at the track to know these. And that's not for herself or for anyone else.

She only has 1,000 posts here, few by comparison to many others. She's grateful to you and thanks you for reminding her to understand her place.

Finally, she hopes you're done.

Then my post has accomplished what it was intended to do. My bad and apologies for not being able to discern you were a female. Now, I am done young lady. ;)

P.S. If your remarks were not intended for any of us, nor yourself, who were they meant for?

[Grits]

I don't know your age, but I'm not young. I'm 57. Quite possibly, as old, or older, than yourself. Please, do me a sweet favor if you will. Find someone else to pound on with your intent.

You're in Mississippi, I've resided in the South all of my life, and where I'm from we have a saying--

IF YOU'VE GOT IT, I'LL KNOW IT; YOU WON'T HAVE TO TELL ME.

And this applies to all of life, be it knowledge, wealth, grace or whatever........it works.

We all benefit when exercising a small bit of humility, even horseplayers.

Amen, and thanks for being done, I appreciate it.

Then my post has accomplished what it was intended to do. My bad and apologies for not being able to discern you were a female. Now, I am done young lady. ;)

[Charli125]

I don't know your age, but I'm not young. I'm 57. Quite possibly, as old, or older, than yourself.


I love it when you old folks start to get all rowdy! :)

[Bruddah]

I love it when you old folks start to get all rowdy! :)

:lol: :lol: :ThmbUp: :D

[jonnielu]

Are you also the Public Relations manager for Horseplayer U ? If so, you should seriously consider finding a replacement for this position.
"It is a great ability to be able to conceal one's ability" so says Francois de La Rochefoucauld (1613 - 1680), Maxims, 1665

Why would you say that??

jdl

[jonnielu]

This probably combines 80 years of horseplaying knowledge between two gentlemen, yet, fact is--of the five notes listed by the 100% physicality 'capper, each have been written verbatim in every book authored on the subject. Each chapter shared by every horseplayer across the continent of North America.



I don't know how many of the books have been sold or read, but you will find very few bettors following the activities of the horses in the pre-post minutes.

100% physicality will leave you a minute late and $2 short just as frequently as 100% PP analysis, or measurement. But, if I could chose which to do without, it would be PP's all day long.

jdl

[Grits]

100% physicality will leave you a minute late and $2 short just as frequently as 100% PP analysis, or measurement. But, if I could chose which to do without, it would be PP's all day long.

jdl

If I recall, Keeneland is one of your favorite places JLU, and one could do well parked there, by the paddock, having the advantage of both--one's view of the horses and one's past performances. Many an afternoon I've walked from the paddock, to the window, to my seat. Back again, to the paddock, to the window, to my seat. How many, many times.

[delayjf]

Physicality is dependent upon changes in an INDIVIDUAL as general rules of "look" do not translate across the board.

I'm going to agree with Dan and 46, change is the thing. I've seen horses who had looked horrible in the paddock of his last race and come back in his next race looking totally different (better) and go on to run a much improved race or get hot and lathered in the post parade in his last race and show up today high and dry.

IMHO, One of the better skills you can develop as a physicality handicapper is the ability to determine the effect a race has on a horse, especially the winner and relate that to his form cycle. I.E. being able to judge if a race has exhausted a horse can lead to big dividends when that same horse returns for his next start probably as one of the favorites. Some horses will exist the winners circle walking with their head low and others will still be on their toes with their head erect.

[jonnielu]

If I recall, Keeneland is one of your favorite places JLU, and one could do well parked there, by the paddock, having the advantage of both--one's view of the horses and one's past performances. Many an afternoon I've walked from the paddock, to the window, to my seat. Back again, to the paddock, to the window, to my seat. How many, many times.

4/20/08 - At KEE, I usually bring my chair and hang by the steps going down right where the #5 is being saddled. Right now, I was looking directly at one of the most well conditioned race horses I have ever seen. I looked down at my sheet to see that this horse had not been marked as a stickout by me this morning.

Oh yeah, I'm still on a speed kick and #6 is a touch faster, and I'm so anxious to see the odds on Fav.#7 go down in flames that I hurriedly grabbed the #6 for being 4 points faster with the same rating. Usually, the kiss of death for an odds on fav. Especially with two solid closers, #3 more so, and #1, that figure to be in it.

My peak at the form told me that this magnificent looking animal last set foot on a race track almost 2 years ago for a Belmont mile, in which his 9th by 29 finish could not successfully hide his 55/93 ability for this 8.5f from my ratings.

There was nothing hidden in his calm presence either as the trainer calmly saddled him in his picture ready jacket and tie. I also noted that the stable had seen fit to call on the services of Robby Albarado for the ride. A jockey that is known for competence.

This horse was also fully qualified on a class level to compete in this race, and I don't know why he has been away, but he is likely here today, looking to win a horserace.

If there were any questions left at all, they were answered with the fantastic warmup that this horse recieved, jockey and horse worked willingly all over the track without an out-rider with one of the most telling warmups I have seen at KEE.

Clearly, no preparation has been missed in the maximum effort to win this race. Only a blind man could fail to make a living at the track, by tuning in to just these goings on.

With odds at 17-1, I bet to win without backing up.

#5 ran a race that equalled his magnificent presence and warm-up, only to be nipped by a neck, by #3, the better rated closer with Calvin Borel doing the steering. Annoying, but satisfying at the same time. My exacta would easily cover me on the win bet, and I am alive in the Pk4.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I'm going to agree with Dan and 46, change is the thing. I've seen horses who had looked horrible in the paddock of his last race and come back in his next race looking totally different (better) and go on to run a much improved race or get hot and lathered in the post parade in his last race and show up today high and dry.

IMHO, One of the better skills you can develop as a physicality handicapper is the ability to determine the effect a race has on a horse, especially the winner and relate that to his form cycle. I.E. being able to judge if a race has exhausted a horse can lead to big dividends when that same horse returns for his next start probably as one of the favorites. Some horses will exist the winners circle walking with their head low and others will still be on their toes with their head erect.

No doubt, whatever "it" may be, horseplayers will always enjoy arguing the minutia of what "it" is and what "it" is not. Like all the parts of a complete analysis, physicality is one part that has its place where it can be quite useful, and in other places, not so significant.

I find it to be most useful when win betting, and much less useful for exotics. It is great to see evidence that a favorite is being stiffed so that you can confidently exclude it from a Superfecta or maybe a Pk, but even a stiffed favorite is likely to run 3rd.

For win betting today's game, you need all the help you can get, winning on purpose has always required an edge, today, the requirement is only greater. Experience in physicality has the most value today when used as a go, no go tool.

Chances are, the past performance handicapper is fairly locked in when the horses are coming through the tunnel anyway. At this point, seeing negatives, or not seeing positives can be a good tip to pass, watch, and learn.

If you miss one, don't worry about it, it will only help you to recognize the positives better, and as the decided edge that you need.

jdl

[Tom]

They all look alike to me!

[ranchwest]

To me, asking what to look for is about like asking how to play a musical instrument. It takes a lot of practice to get good at it and there's a WHOLE LOT to know.

I think negatives are the easiest to convey because some are absolute.

Tracks with a "soft solid" walking ring, like Lone Star, are good for spotting bad "poop". If it splatters, that is an automatic no questions asked toss out for me. If it hits regular dirt, it isn't as easy to tell. That's my only absolute no questions asked 100% every time toss out, though I have a few others that are nearly as bad.

I don't like horses that don't put full weight on one or more legs. This has saved me untold money over the long haul. Every great once in a while I'm wrong, but these horses seldom run well. Of course, it is often difficult to tell the difference between a hop and a wince movement.

I don't like horses with cuts and similar blemishes. These are often signs of gate problems or other bad experiences and if the blemish is fairly fresh I think the horse probably remembers the bad experience. I could be wrong there, but that's my viewpoint.

Some people can smell linament, but my nose doesn't work very well so that hasn't helped me any.

[proximity]

36-24-36;)

in the paddock i'm looking for what cmoore is looking for. :)

as far as the horses, i'm much more concerned with the warmup..... or lack thereof. if there are multiple times when the jockey stands up and the horse basically just keeps walking..... i don't like this.

[CincyHorseplayer]

in the paddock i'm looking for what cmoore is looking for. :)

as far as the horses, i'm much more concerned with the warmup..... or lack thereof. if there are multiple times when the jockey stands up and the horse basically just keeps walking..... i don't like this.

I know.How did that beauty of a comment go for nought??!!!

I'm lookin at all kinds of flesh too Cmoore:ThmbUp:

[eastie]

in the paddock i'm looking for what cmoore is looking for. :)

as far as the horses, i'm much more concerned with the warmup..... or lack thereof. if there are multiple times when the jockey stands up and the horse basically just keeps walking..... i don't like this.

there are some who say that if a speed horse running off a layoff and is walked to the gate...look out, he'll be 3 in front before you can blink. I've seen it, but it doesn't happen often. It's usually an older jock too.

[jonnielu]

To me, asking what to look for is about like asking how to play a musical instrument. It takes a lot of practice to get good at it and there's a WHOLE LOT to know.

I think negatives are the easiest to convey because some are absolute.



Salient points, quite often they all look good.

[NY BRED]

36-24-36;)


Odds or measurements:) :eek: ?

[fmolf]

Odds or measurements:) :eek: ?
:lol: ...at the upper tier tracks most horses look the same to me.I find it easier to use physicality to disqualify than to qualify....for me at my age odds are way more important! :D

[nalley0710]

There was a good post before on another thread where a guy gave a checklist for the paddock that was very good. I have all the books and tapes and have been using body language for 15 years. I keep records of all my bets and the reasons for making those bets and when I shy away from body language my returns drop. I tallied 1995 to 2007 and my roi was a little over 20 % percent for all bets made mostly at small tracks. At big tracks I've had problems using body language on simulcast but played Santa Anita live quite a bit while my brother lived within walking distance of the track and played Hawthorne live quite a bit and did extremely well using body language and traditional handicapping at the live track. I think it works best at the smaller tracks especially when simulcasted. I bet every day now year around at four small tracks and am starting to learn that different techniques work at different small tracks, one live the other three simulcast. I have a standard form I use that has the track, race and date on top. Handicapping eliminations next, Paddock inspection next, going out to track third and On track fourth. If you take notes on races for a couple of months and compare them to the past performances and look back you will see certain patterns at certain tracks. Sometimes the pattern is that body language doesnt work at the track believe it or not. Sometimes warmups don't mean that much and sometimes they do. I saw a horse that looked real calm in the paddock and then just tore up the track on his warm up and caught my eye. His pps looked mediocre but had some back class and all the other horses looked uninspired. I normally wouldnt even bet this horse but I bet him off the warm up only and back class. He paid 60-1. Its always been good for me but I'll warn you that you will be very busy during the races and people I've tried to teach it to have all said that its too much work. Its a lot more intuitive and ambiguous than handicapping the form. It took me years to fit the form and visual inspection together into a method. I should also mention that I don't bet on 85% of races I look at and there's probably a lot of other methods that pay as well when you are that selective so that was probably as big a factor in that roi. Hope this helps some.

[Tom]

There is an article on this subject by Steve Davidowitz in the July 12 issue of Simulcast weekly. It's also in the Drf Plus articles.

[fmolf]

There was a good post before on another thread where a guy gave a checklist for the paddock that was very good. I have all the books and tapes and have been using body language for 15 years. I keep records of all my bets and the reasons for making those bets and when I shy away from body language my returns drop. I tallied 1995 to 2007 and my roi was a little over 20 % percent for all bets made mostly at small tracks. At big tracks I've had problems using body language on simulcast but played Santa Anita live quite a bit while my brother lived within walking distance of the track and played Hawthorne live quite a bit and did extremely well using body language and traditional handicapping at the live track. I think it works best at the smaller tracks especially when simulcasted. I bet every day now year around at four small tracks and am starting to learn that different techniques work at different small tracks, one live the other three simulcast. I have a standard form I use that has the track, race and date on top. Handicapping eliminations next, Paddock inspection next, going out to track third and On track fourth. If you take notes on races for a couple of months and compare them to the past performances and look back you will see certain patterns at certain tracks. Sometimes the pattern is that body language doesnt work at the track believe it or not. Sometimes warmups don't mean that much and sometimes they do. I saw a horse that looked real calm in the paddock and then just tore up the track on his warm up and caught my eye. His pps looked mediocre but had some back class and all the other horses looked uninspired. I normally wouldnt even bet this horse but I bet him off the warm up only and back class. He paid 60-1. Its always been good for me but I'll warn you that you will be very busy during the races and people I've tried to teach it to have all said that its too much work. Its a lot more intuitive and ambiguous than handicapping the form. It took me years to fit the form and visual inspection together into a method. I should also mention that I don't bet on 85% of races I look at and there's probably a lot of other methods that pay as well when you are that selective so that was probably as big a factor in that roi. Hope this helps some.I play belmont and i use body language to get me off a horse that i may have as my top contender.This has saved me countless bad bets.Most of the horses look similar at the top tier tracks.Most of my body language plays though come from smaller tracks.I believe sore horses are easier to spot at delaware,suffolk.....philly..etc..etc..

[castaway01]

When a horse comes out on the track carrying an Uzi with a bandanna on its head, I run to the windows...

Seriously though, it helps if you know what the horse usually looks like. A horse could come out looking sore, tired, and sweaty, yet if that is what it looks like every time it runs and it wins, it doesn't mean anything. You really have to study each start and be able to say "Okay, this horse usually looks fit but today it looks washed out and not on the muscle." Which is something most of us don't have time to do, but those who do can make it work, I agree.

[11cashcall]

Lots of good points,a few i would like to add:

A)Not to long in neck,this causes to much rebound action when running.
b) Long defining shoulder muscles.
c)During warm -up watch to see if horse (s) have high extended knee action.
d)See which horse's are walking short:example-back hoof should normally touch on or near where front hoof imprint was left in surface.

[juanepstein]

its hard to explain to people what you see. work backwards and take notes,do experimental betting with the notes youve taken instead of going to the paddock and taking guesses and blowing your money.

ive always suggested look at the parade and take notes of horses physical features and leg actions. then look at the top 4 finishers in the race and make comparisons.then to refine everything move to video work, horses heading to the gate in the last minute for 2nd eliminations.alot can happen within that 10 minute window from the parade to the gate.

once youve pretty much have what youve been looking for now use that in the paddock. you will notice how quick you eliminate half the field before doing parade and backstretch video work.

find that this comes in handy once youve done all your capping in advance. if your handicapping and trying to do this you wont have time and you will rush and lose or pretty much give up on it all.

happy capping:)

[post time]

most jockeys will take a sore horse away from the pony in a attempt to loosen him her up