News from America's #1 Analyst

[jonnielu]

Which is not me, it is Chuck Berndt. The only successful analyst for 65 years running on the NY circuit, that has never written a book. He says he never will. He reminds me, that he is the only man in America to consistently draw over 1000 to seminars at a racetrack.

I called him last night for my semi-annual check in which I've been doing for the last four years. He has been waiting for my ratings to fall apart too. He seemed more disappointed then usual last night. He said:

The game can not be beaten with only information from the racing form because that handicapper has no way to ascertain physical condition today from past performances.

You can not win on grass or poly, it can not be done, he can't do it.

What do you say?

I say, an open mind works best.

jdl

[jfdinneen]

The game can not be beaten with only information from the racing form because that handicapper has no way to ascertain physical condition today from past performances.
jdl,

Chuck is right but for the wrong reason.

He is right that information in the DRF is public and, therefore, probably baked into the parimutuel (Zero-Sum Game!) prices. He is also right that unless you can uncover hidden private information you cannot win in the long-term. However, he is wrong if he focuses exclusively on physical condition - any hidden information with a positive Actual Expected Index (AEI) will work.

Best wishes,

John

[fmolf]

jdl,

Chuck is right but for the wrong reason.

He is right that information in the DRF is public and, therefore, probably baked into the parimutuel (Zero-Sum Game!) prices. He is also right that unless you can uncover hidden private information you cannot win in the long-term. However, he is wrong if he focuses exclusively on physical condition - any hidden information with a positive Actual Expected Index (AEI) will work.

Best wishes,

John
paddock inspection will work,trip handicapping will work...speed and pace figures will work if you make your own,studying trainer angles/maneuvers specific to your home track will work...anything the general public is not doing will work.So will careful thorough reading of the pp's and good careful patient wagering and money management theory.Easier said then done.

[jonnielu]

paddock inspection will work,trip handicapping will work...speed and pace figures will work if you make your own,studying trainer angles/maneuvers specific to your home track will work...anything the general public is not doing will work.So will careful thorough reading of the pp's and good careful patient wagering and money management theory.Easier said then done.

Sorry, but Chuck says that unless you can ascertain physical condition today, all of that other stuff is a guaranteed loser. And, grass or poly, you just can't win period. He was quite insistent. Did I mention that he has made his living at the track?

jdl

[fmolf]

Sorry, but Chuck says that unless you can ascertain physical condition today, all of that other stuff is a guaranteed loser. And, grass or poly, you just can't win period. He was quite insistent. Did I mention that he has made his living at the track?

jdl
Yes you did..so body language and paddock inspection is the way to go!Why aren't all the backstretch workers making a fortune?If i believed all that i would not play this game!

[jonnielu]

Yes you did..so body language and paddock inspection is the way to go!Why aren't all the backstretch workers making a fortune?If i believed all that i would not play this game!

Well, I guess the average backstretch worker can not properly assess ability, if they can properly assess condition. But, what about grass? Chuck says that you just can't win on grass, he can't play Belmont anymore because of all the grass races. And, he has 65 years of experience.

I told him I win on grass, but he still says it can't be done.

jdl

[fmolf]

Well, I guess the average backstretch worker can not properly assess ability, if they can properly assess condition. But, what about grass? Chuck says that you just can't win on grass, he can't play Belmont anymore because of all the grass races. And, he has 65 years of experience.

I told him I win on grass, but he still says it can't be done.

jdl
i win when i'm smokin it :cool:

[senortout]

Maybe the old guys just wrong....

[CincyHorseplayer]

i win when i'm smokin it :cool:

:lol:

[raybo]

I've been saying (and believing) that unless you can make a fair estimate of each horse's current form (physical condition) all the other numbers/figures mean nothing. I disagree with his statement that you can't ascertain a horse's current form from the past performances. I've been doing it for years now. Yes, I'm wrong sometimes but I'm way ahead of what I would be if I couldn't make an educated estimate of the form of the horses involved in a race.

The ability to "read between the lines" is one gained by years of experience. It includes, among other things, analysis of past races, workouts, trainer intent and trainer ability to put his horse in the correct situation to be successful, etc.. Pattern recognition is the key here, as most here, who have the skill, will tell you.

You have to know what the horse needs and if the trainer has given him/her that.

Again, IMO, current condition is the most important factor in racing. Those who have the ability to ascertain it most of the time are "head and heels" ahead of those who don't have it.

Also, some of my largest payouts have been turf races. Now, can one live on the grass exclusively? I don't know because I've never tried it, nor would I want to. I only occasionally wager on turf races but am way ahead with them ROI-wise. It's a different game from dirt and must be treated that way.

[turfnsport]

Maybe the old guys just wrong....

I would think since he is the #1 analyst in all the land he would come up on google or Bing or Something..Oh, I forgot who started this thread :lol:

never mind.

[lamboguy]

physical condition means more than any racing form, sheet, or pace number's put together. in this year's kentucky derby there were 2 horses, both that took tons of money, that had no chance to run a good race just by looking at them on television.

also there are plenty of crew's that go all over the country to look for horses running on turf for the first time to see if they have the foot for the turf. same thing with mud horses. the newest deal today is that there are guys that specialise with synthetic surfaces. personally, i stay away from the synthetic alltogether. they burried me right away with it in keeneland. so i refuse to even study those racecards.

[cj]

...I told him I win on grass, but he still says it can't be done.

jdl

We are all well aware you could win on moon dust or molten lava from any distance between and including 2f to 5 miles.

[proximity]

We are all well aware you could win on moon dust or molten lava from any distance between and including 2f to 5 miles.

are you implying that jonnielu's game would be vulnerable at the distance of 5 miles and 40 yards?:)

[dav4463]

I think great handicapping is overrated. You can win by making smart bets and keeping good records of your own plays.

I think an average handicapper/smart bettor will outperform a great handicapper/dumb bettor.

A poor handicapper/smart bettor might even be OK.

Poor handicapper/dumb bettor is in trouble!

[fmolf]

I think great handicapping is overrated. You can win by making smart bets and keeping good records of your own plays.

I think an average handicapper/smart bettor will outperform a great handicapper/dumb bettor.

A poor handicapper/smart bettor might even be OK.

Poor handicapper/dumb bettor is in trouble!
i agree...but their are ways of ascertaining current form of the horses using the pp's ...increased early speed ,decreasing turn times,decreasing final fractions....increasingly faster workouts.Can i know exactly how a horse feels today when he wakes up ...no

[FUGITIVE77]

Which is not me, it is Chuck Berndt. The only successful analyst for 65 years running on the NY circuit, that has never written a book. He says he never will. He reminds me, that he is the only man in America to consistently draw over 1000 to seminars at a racetrack.

I called him last night for my semi-annual check in which I've been doing for the last four years. He has been waiting for my ratings to fall apart too. He seemed more disappointed then usual last night. He said:

The game can not be beaten with only information from the racing form because that handicapper has no way to ascertain physical condition today from past performances.

You can not win on grass or poly, it can not be done, he can't do it.

What do you say?

I say, an open mind works best.

jdl

Sounds a lot like the late Dave Feldman, if he can't win then nobody can. Nobody knows more about handicapping than Dave, (according to Dave).

[Imriledup]

I agree with a lot of this stuff. If you are really good at looking at body language, coat, etc it can really help you win money. Can you win if you know nothing about looking the horse over carefully on race day? You might, but its much harder imo.

[jonnielu]

I've been saying (and believing) that unless you can make a fair estimate of each horse's current form (physical condition) all the other numbers/figures mean nothing. I disagree with his statement that you can't ascertain a horse's current form from the past performances. I've been doing it for years now. Yes, I'm wrong sometimes but I'm way ahead of what I would be if I couldn't make an educated estimate of the form of the horses involved in a race.

The ability to "read between the lines" is one gained by years of experience. It includes, among other things, analysis of past races, workouts, trainer intent and trainer ability to put his horse in the correct situation to be successful, etc.. Pattern recognition is the key here, as most here, who have the skill, will tell you.

You have to know what the horse needs and if the trainer has given him/her that.

Again, IMO, current condition is the most important factor in racing. Those who have the ability to ascertain it most of the time are "head and heels" ahead of those who don't have it.

Also, some of my largest payouts have been turf races. Now, can one live on the grass exclusively? I don't know because I've never tried it, nor would I want to. I only occasionally wager on turf races but am way ahead with them ROI-wise. It's a different game from dirt and must be treated that way.

Chuck has been all over trainer patterns for at least 30 years, but he still insists that his physicality demands are met before he will head to the window. Three horses might be in the gate before his final green or red light.

His goal each day is 0 losses.

He says, that you can not win on the grass, because there is no pace, and "pace makes the race". And, you can't win on poly at all period.

I told him that I win on poly, and he says to call him back in 3 months.



jdl

[jonnielu]

I would think since he is the #1 analyst in all the land he would come up on google or Bing or Something..Oh, I forgot who started this thread :lol:

never mind.

Hey, he is still at his winter home in Hollywood, you could ask him yourself. He's been in the GP clubhouse every season since 1949. Check the Miami Herald, the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, and the Daily Racing form archives. Don't take my word for it. He'll be sitting there at Saratoga too, passing grass races.

PS I blocked you on Twitter by accident, if you want to make another request, I'll click the right button. I'd like you to do TrackSideEye at Calder.

jdl

[jonnielu]

physical condition means more than any racing form, sheet, or pace number's put together. in this year's kentucky derby there were 2 horses, both that took tons of money, that had no chance to run a good race just by looking at them on television.

also there are plenty of crew's that go all over the country to look for horses running on turf for the first time to see if they have the foot for the turf. same thing with mud horses. the newest deal today is that there are guys that specialise with synthetic surfaces. personally, i stay away from the synthetic alltogether. they burried me right away with it in keeneland. so i refuse to even study those racecards.

Personally, I am shocked that a man with Chuck's analytical ability would simply turn his back on an entire segment of the game. In the 15 minutes to post, he can plug himself into a racetrack the way that R2D2 plugged into the DeathStar.

But, he restricts himself to the NY circuit, and now doesn't plug into Belmont either. He started me on physicality, but I have always believed that it is his conservatism that carries the day for him. His motto has always been "be conservative, to win".

jdl

[DanG]

With all due respect to “Chuck”. The Chuck’s of the world are why there will always be profit in this game until we draw our last breath.

We have all heard a thousand times how this method can’t work and why this approach “must” be used. It’s like the reformed ‘red meat consumer’ who feels the need to stand on a Tofu podium and preach to the flock why their way is the ‘only’ way to conduct your life.

We each bring something different to the table; the entire key to anything you approach is to maximize the gifts you have and never let the negative influences that surround gambling drag you into their abyss.

Paraphrasing the great David Mamet dialogue in Glengarry Glen Ross…

Rickey Roma (Al Pacino): When you die you're going to regret the things you don't do. A hell exists on earth? Yes. I won't live in it. That's me.

Part of our gambling “Hell on earth” is the negativity that permeates our game. As Pacino said and it’s easier said then done… hell does exists within our sport…choose not to live in it.

[fmolf]

With all due respect to “Chuck”. The Chuck’s of the world are why there will always be profit in this game until we draw our last breath.

We have all heard a thousand times how this method can’t work and why this approach “must” be used. It’s like the reformed ‘red meat consumer’ who feels the need to stand on a Tofu podium and preach to the flock why their way is the ‘only’ way to conduct your life.

We each bring something different to the table; the entire key to anything you approach is to maximize the gifts you have and never let the negative influences that surround gambling drag you into their abyss.

Paraphrasing the great David Mamet dialogue in Glengarry Glen Ross…



Part of our gambling “Hell on earth” is the negativity that permeates our game. As Pacino said and it’s easier said then done… hell does exists within our sport…choose not to live in it.
Only the individual player can make his decision on what methodology he is personally comfortable with.A personal methodology is usually modified remodified and adapts with what is working this week ,month or year.An astute handicapper refines his game to match the demands of the races before him.Over time he finds what his best methodology is. With bankroll growth or erosion being the ultimate barometer of the need for change.Many different methods will work the key is to perform with due diligence and process information in whatever vein, in a way that is contrarian to how the crowd is interpreting the same information.Or do your due diligence and uncover information that most of the general public is not privy to.

[jasperson]

Which is not me, it is Chuck Berndt. The only successful analyst for 65 years running on the NY circuit, that has never written a book. He says he never will. He reminds me, that he is the only man in America to consistently draw over 1000 to seminars at a racetrack.

I called him last night for my semi-annual check in which I've been doing for the last four years. He has been waiting for my ratings to fall apart too. He seemed more disappointed then usual last night. He said:

The game can not be beaten with only information from the racing form because that handicapper has no way to ascertain physical condition today from past performances.

You can not win on grass or poly, it can not be done, he can't do it.

What do you say?

I say, an open mind works best.

jdl

This reminds me of an Engineering Space conference I attended in 1960 where a presenters opinion was that it was impossible to rendezvous 2 objects in space. Of course he was right if you tried to do it the way he suggested it be done.
Jack

[jonnielu]

We are all well aware you could win on moon dust or molten lava from any distance between and including 2f to 5 miles.

Well, with that, you would be just adding to myth.

The only reason that I will go down to 4.5f now, is because I can combine physicality with ratings. I used to pass any race with 3 or more firsters. I also didn't get grass, or 12f and beyond. So, I worked on that too.

I told Chuck that I did well on the grass now, and he said to call him in three months.

jdl

[fmolf]

Well, with that, you would be just adding to myth.

The only reason that I will go down to 4.5f now, is because I can combine physicality with ratings. I used to pass any race with 3 or more firsters. I also didn't get grass, or 12f and beyond. So, I worked on that too.

I told Chuck that I did well on the grass now, and he said to call him in three months.

jdli think he meant 3 hours

[fmolf]

taking a flyer on hough horse belmont 's first....third off the layoff showing early speed first time and faster 5f work 6/30...horse is # 7

[fmolf]

taking a flyer on hough horse belmont 's first....third off the layoff showing early speed first time and faster 5f work 6/30...horse is # 7
chuck is right...you can't win on the grass....call him back!

worth a flyer at 24/1...caught wide all the way from post 7...ran evenly...maybe next race in a softer spot

[robert99]

I wonder if Chuck ever wonders about what they do in Europe and Australia where the racing is predominantly on turf and now going to polytrack.

Whatever the track make up, whatever the country, the favourites still win an average of 30%. Racing is 70% unpredictable whatever type of surface it is.
The trick is the knowledge and skill to avoid 100% of the most unpredictable races.

[jonnielu]

chuck is right...you can't win on the grass....call him back!

worth a flyer at 24/1...caught wide all the way from post 7...ran evenly...maybe next race in a softer spot

Chuck would say that flyers are your downfall. What amazes me is that he continues to be successful even while his scope becomes narrower. What gets me though is that he would do just as well on poly as he does on dirt, he just doesn't need to bother with it while he can still make a year out of Toga and GP.

I can't call him back today either, I had 2 on the lawn today and won 2, the rest was on poly, and I can't back him up with those results either.

jdl

[fmolf]

Chuck would say that flyers are your downfall. What amazes me is that he continues to be successful even while his scope becomes narrower. What gets me though is that he would do just as well on poly as he does on dirt, he just doesn't need to bother with it while he can still make a year out of Toga and GP.

I can't call him back today either, I had 2 on the lawn today and won 2, the rest was on poly, and I can't back him up with those results either.

jdlI'd go against chuck if i were you....stay off the dirtbet only poly and grass races!

[pandy]

I'm not surprised that so many players refuse to bet the AW tracks, but these tracks are probably more predictable than dirt tracks. However, you have to know how to spot the live stalkers, especially in sprints, and concentrate on horses that can finish. It's just the opposite of dirt tracks where you have to bet mostly on horses that are the main speed in sprints, or inside speed in routes. So basically you just have to make a few minor adjustments to win. The only speed that wins is high-class speed.

[jonnielu]

I'm not surprised that so many players refuse to bet the AW tracks, but these tracks are probably more predictable than dirt tracks. However, you have to know how to spot the live stalkers, especially in sprints, and concentrate on horses that can finish. It's just the opposite of dirt tracks where you have to bet mostly on horses that are the main speed in sprints, or inside speed in routes. So basically you just have to make a few minor adjustments to win. The only speed that wins is high-class speed.

That is the one thing that never occured to me, except lately, it has become obvious. I still say that the $395 I paid Chuck in 1981 for a 24 hour seminar is the best money I ever spent. Because it sent me on a path of discovery that I probably wouldn't have followed on my own.

The method worked just fine on the NY circuit, and because of that GP/HIA made sense once Chuck had filled you in. But, everything would fall apart if you didn't head north and were trying to stay awake at Calder during summer afternoons. Even back then, the simple solution was to blame it all on Calder's artificial Tartan surface of the time. But, that wasn't what it was.

The big difference was just in the quality of racing from top to bottom. At the time, quality racing was the more predictable variety. Chuck's current complaint is that it is all much more unpredictable and competitive, and that is not because of surface differences.

The thing that shocked me, was to find that after all of this time and experience Chuck hasn't changed a thing, and instead of applying his analytical ability to find the solution, he walks away. No poly, and no more Belmont because of to much grass. It was disappointing to me, because I always thought that wanting the answers was another thing I had in common with this very successful horseplayer.

jdl