Morning Lines

[Molock]

Another newbie type question (though I've been horsing around with this hobby for awhile):

Who does the Morning Lines? It's my understanding that it's one guy at each track, but how does he get the job? Does he stay with one track or does he follow a circuit? And does anyone know about HIS system?

Thanks in advance.

[Dave Schwartz]

Back in the '80s I studied morning lines and consensus picks for SoCal and NY. After a database was built I found that I could tell when the DRF guy that made the line went on vacation or took a day off.

While it seems to be a relatively predictive factor (of who the public will wager on, mostly) it does not seem to have too much real value.

So, in answer to your question, I am under the impression that you cannot count on the line being made by the same person everyday.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[so.cal.fan]

In So. Calif. Santa Anita and Del Mar morning lines are made each day by Jeff Tufts. He is a clocker and studies the video tapes very carefully. His morning line odds on maiden first starters are pretty good. If he hangs one up at long odds, they usually can't run, especially if they have trained at Santa Anita, where he clocks horses.
Hollywood is done by Russ Hudack, another clocker and handicapper.
These guys have done these tracks for years and in my opinion are very good.

[Figman]

The Aqu, Bel & Sar morning line is made by Don LaPlace. After making the line for NYRA for many years, he retired a few years ago. After going thru a couple of young "hotshots" who were "less than accurate" and in some cases did not even balance their morning lines, NYRA lured LaPlace out of retirement and rehired him. He now lives year around in Saratoga Springs and works from home. He has been back on the job about two years.

[Dave Schwartz]

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I studied this stuff around 15 years ago. That info is certainly dated.

However, one caveat that I believe is still suitable:

No matter how good the guy is that makes the line, he still takes a vacation or calls in sick once in awhile. Just be aware that the DRF does not say, "Our line today was not made by the regular guy."

Back then I also tracked Jerry Antonucci for ahwile. As I recall, he made the line for the LA Examiner. His line was amazingly accurate, mnore than any other I had seen.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[karlskorner]

Dave;

It has always been my contention that the purpose of the M/L maker was to estimate what the public would send the horse off at and not to point out the winner.

A decent handicapper realizes that the odds board is "underlaid" at both extremes. Bettors tend to go overboard on the chances of many favorites. On the other hand, numerous players waste their money on hopeless longshots, either from ignorance or simply to play a horse at a big price. Many horses that start at
20-1 really should be 100-1, but in order to balance out his M/L to 125% he will list their M/L at 20-1.

Karl

[Dave Schwartz]

Karl,

I agree completely. The job of the linesmaker is to predict how the public will wager. Of course, that is not how most people look to use it which is why it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy kind of thing. ("Hey look. That horse SHOULD be 3-1 and he's 8-1. I'm going to make a bet!")

Nevertheless, IMHO when a good linemaker is MIA the substitute linemaker is likely to produce a different line.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[takeout]

Since it is done way in advance, can they get some form of PPs to work with or do they use results charts or do it some other way?

I know it's supposed to be their assessment of how the public will bet the race but lots of times it seems to be a mixture of that and their own betting line.

Does anyone know why DRF doesn't have a morning line in it?

[karlskorner]

Takeout;

The 2 M/L makers that I know keep an excellent set of charts, plus a set of 3/5 cards on each and every horse on the grounds. When there is a shipper involved they usually phone the M/L maker at the other track to get a line on the horse.

The one thing you don't want to do is mingle the choices of the M/L maker with a public handicapper (DRF, tout sheet, etc) as their opinions will differ. The 1 M/L maker that I know also publishes a tout sheet and there is a difference of opinion between his M/L and sheet.

Karl

[karlskorner]

Takeout;

The 2nd part of your post. The DRF publishes 2 days early from the 'overnights" in order to have the paper at the track a day before. You will find the same thing with BRIS, you can get the card early, but you will not find the M/L, you have to wait till the afternoon prior to the races being run.

Karl

[takeout]

karlskorner,

Thanks for the answers about the M/L makers.

Something's weird here, though. Maybe it's something I'm doing wrong but I don't think so. I just went to the DRF site and downloaded a card of races that have already been run today and I can't find a M/L in them. After that I went to BRIS and then TSN and both of them already have cards for Tuesday that that have M/Ls. TSN even has some up for Wed. already that have M/Ls in them. At TSN they don't put them up until they have a M/L. You don't have to look for the little p. I might be losing it but every time I have ever picked up a DRF, either hardcopy or download, it has not had a M/L in it. Seems awfully strange. I may have to take Marc up on that offer.

[andicap]

OK, I'm far from an expert on this subject, so this truly is just a question.
If the ML is supposed to reflect what the public will do rather than be a predictor of the outcome, why do ML makers have to go to all that trouble to make the line? Why all the 3x5 cards, etc., when all they have to look at is the DRF. After all, that's all most of the people betting are looking at?
OR, since much of the betting money comes from big so-called "smart-money" bettors, are the ML makers simply trying to keep up with them?

[takeout]

Originally posted by andicap

If the ML is supposed to reflect what the public will do rather than be a predictor of the outcome, why do ML makers have to go to all that trouble to make the line?


It is odd, isn't it? If the ML maker's top pick wins as a longshot, then he's done a terrible job. :)

[Molock]

The interesting thing I noticed (and the spark for my original post) was that with HTR you can get a profile of how each corrollary (for lack of a better term) compares with the final result, such as how often the top pace horse won (or was in the Top 6), and I quickly saw that no matter what the percentage for Speed, Class, etc, the Morning Line proved to be a percentage point or two better. For most tracks, the winner was in the Top 3 ML, the single best factor compared to any others. Of course let me qualify that by saying that there were a couple of tracks (Tampa Bay in particular), where the ML was a horrible indicator of the winner. While most tracks had the winning horse in the Top 3 anywhere from 72-76% of the time, TB was around 52%.

Living in Santa Rosa, I went to the track Friday (No Cal Fair) and decided to simply take the Top 3 ML horses and dutch them based on the public's current odds (as close to post as I could get). I hit every race I bet (6 altogether, then I had to get home before the wife realized I was playing hooky), and even managed to walk away with a profit, albeit a small one, but it was a profit nonetheless.

Just a thought...

[karlskorner]

Originally posted by takeout
karlskorner,

Thanks for the answers about the M/L makers.

Something's weird here, though. Maybe it's something I'm doing wrong but I don't think so. I just went to the DRF site and downloaded a card of races that have already been run today and I can't find a M/L in them. After that I went to BRIS and then TSN and both of them already have cards for Tuesday that that have M/Ls. TSN even has some up for Wed. already that have M/Ls in them. At TSN they don't put them up until they have a M/L. You don't have to look for the little p. I might be losing it but every time I have ever picked up a DRF, either hardcopy or download, it has not had a M/L in it. Seems awfully strange. I may have to take Marc up on that offer.


Takeout;

The one thing you are overlooking is that the "shake" for post positions for a future race is done in the Racing Sec. office 48-72 hours prior to the the running of the race. the earlier the "shake" the sooner the M/L can be posted, hence TSN & BRIS can publish "p's" 48 hours in advance in some cases.

Forget DRF, once they publish, what you see is what you get. DRF has to get tomorrow's paper to the track today. The M/L maker can't wait for tomorrow's edition therefore he must keep his own records.

Karl

[takeout]

Originally posted by karlskorner


Takeout;

The one thing you are overlooking is that the "shake" for post positions for a future race is done in the Racing Sec. office 48-72 hours prior to the the running of the race. the earlier the "shake" the sooner the M/L can be posted, hence TSN & BRIS can publish "p's" 48 hours in advance in some cases.

Forget DRF, once they publish, what you see is what you get. DRF has to get tomorrow's paper to the track today. The M/L maker can't wait for tomorrow's edition therefore he must keep his own records.

Karl

Thanks. That explains the paper product but what about their online product? All the other online sellers of PPs have a ML in them. (?)

[Rick Ransom]

I think what determines actual odds most is whatever is in the program. Morning line is one of those things that is in every program. Also, jockey and trainer stats and earnings. Speed ratings of various types for a few previous races should also have an impact, but the type used would be different depending on the track. The reason? That's the only information the vast majority of the public has.

If less than 10% of the people have DRF, I wouldn't expect it to have a big impact on odds. In fact, based on a small sample I did a couple of years ago, I'd say that when one of the DRF handicappers picks a horse on top and it's morning line is 4-1 or higher, you have a pretty good bet for not doing any handicapping at all.

That being said, I do have respect for their opinion. If I set a minimum ML odds for playing a horse, I can expect my win % to decrease more as I set it at higher odds. But that's what you have to do to increase your ROI. If your horse is the morning line favorite, you almost always have an underlay no matter how good you think the horse is. If the actual odds go too high, it'll usually get bet down at the end just because a lot of people think they're the only ones who've noticed the "overlay".

[andicap]

OK, 10% have the DRF, but how much of the wagering handle do people with DRF (or BRIS or someother PP) represent? I'd say a pretty high %.

[Rick Ransom]

andicap,

That's a good point. But I do think the things I mentioned pretty much determine the "dumb money", whatever percentage of the handle that is.