Can anyone here add to this?

[misscashalot]

I'm interested in knowing how many races of no wins happens in bet order with a win percentage of 35% - 40% - 45%. Whether its 8 losses or more or less and how many of these loss runs in your sample and how many races in sample sample. I have a sample of 135 races, with a win percentage of 42% and most consecutive losses is 8 and this happens twice. Can anyone add to this?

[Cangamble]

Here is a site a just searched for:
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Streak+Calculator.aspx

I put 135 in the first box.
I put different numbers in the second box.
And I put 58 (chance of losing) in the final box.

Apparently you have a 51% chance of losing 8 in a row at one point in your 135 race run. This doesn't give the percentages of having 2 or more such bad streaks.

By putting 8 and 8 in the first two boxes, you have a 1.281 chance of going scoreless in any new run.

[DanG]

I'm interested in knowing how many races of no wins happens in bet order with a win percentage of 35% - 40% - 45%. Whether its 8 losses or more or less and how many of these loss runs in your sample and how many races in sample sample. I have a sample of 135 races, with a win percentage of 42% and most consecutive losses is 8 and this happens twice. Can anyone add to this?
The “theoretical” run out (or gamblers ruin) for 42% is 13 in a series of 1,000 gambles.

.35 = 16
.40 = 14
.45 = 12

[misscashalot]

Thanks to both of you. Very interesting and helpful to me.

[DanG]

This thread speaks to the issue Cash and post #6 has an Excel formula that can get you in the ballpark.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52592&highlight=GAMBLERS+RUIN

[misscashalot]

This thread speaks to the issue Cash and post #6 has an Excel formula that can get you in the ballpark.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52592&highlight=GAMBLERS+RUIN

Yes Dan I went there and see that 42% is 8, and that is exactly what I have.

[DanG]

Yes Dan I went there and see that 42% is 8, and that is exactly what I have.
Paraphrasing Jimi; “If 8 was 13” :blush:

Sorry for the confusion;…the “13” I posted was on a 1,000 gamble projection and the thread (“8”) is based on 100.

[CBedo]

I just built a simple simulator in excel, and running 1000 simulations of sample size of 135, these were the results I got:

For 35%, min longest losing streak was 5 in any sample, median was 9 (avg like 9.5ish). When I asked it how many losing streaks of 8 or more, these were the results:
0 19.3%
1 35.0%
2 26.9%
3 13.7%
4 04.4%
5 00.7%

for 42%, min longest losing streak was 3, median was 7 (avg closer to 8).

Losing streaks of 8 or more:
0 44.0%
1 41.7%
2 12.4%
3 01.6%
4 00.3%

The numbers were relatively stable when I reran the 1000 sample simulation multiple times.

[misscashalot]

Really great numbers CB. Would you mind giving me the XLS formula so I can run a few trials with some changes? Thanks Matt

[CBedo]

Really great numbers CB. Would you mind giving me the XLS formula so I can run a few trials with some changes? Thanks MattDOH! I didn't even save the sheet. I'm sure there are more efficient ways to do it than I did it, but it works (sort of a brute force method). It's not too hard to recreate. I don't know if I'll have time to do it tonight, but if not, I'll recreate it tomorrow and email you the sheet if you'll pm me your email address.

[misscashalot]

Thanks CB. Ill PM you that info