The Dwyer

[Valuist]

I normally find Steven Crist's columns in the DRF interesting and well written. I have to take exception to some of what was written about the Dwyer:

"The Dwyer feels like a great way to start the second half of the racing year because it has a strong field of promising 3 year olds, not one of whom contested a Triple Crown race.....several have shown the potential to become important players in races such as the Haskell and Travers later this summer."

While I believe in speed figures, this race points out the problem of focusing on big figures earned against inferior competition, most of which were earned with the aid of good trips. Strong field?? I believe that if the races were graded AFTER the fact, as they should be, this year's Dwyer would likely be ungraded. Crist mentions that not one of the runners contested a Triple Crown race; that's probably because NONE of the runners in the Dwyer entered the race with a stakes win. Even the heavy favorite Warriors Reward had not won more than a NW1X. I'll go out on a very small limb; this years Travers winner did not run today in the Dwyer.

[slew101]

Like a fool, I didn't play Kensei today after being on him at like 30-1 in his last start where he missed 2nd by a nose. Didn't notice the rider switch to Prado.

Kensei will likely be pointed towards the King's Bishop. He broke his maiden at Saratoga last summer. They could try and stretch him out in the Jim Dandy to see if he can go 2 turns and then wheel back in the Bishop if he doesn't like the distance.

[joanied]

I normally find Steven Crist's columns in the DRF interesting and well written. I have to take exception to some of what was written about the Dwyer:

"The Dwyer feels like a great way to start the second half of the racing year because it has a strong field of promising 3 year olds, not one of whom contested a Triple Crown race.....several have shown the potential to become important players in races such as the Haskell and Travers later this summer."

While I believe in speed figures, this race points out the problem of focusing on big figures earned against inferior competition, most of which were earned with the aid of good trips. Strong field?? I believe that if the races were graded AFTER the fact, as they should be, this year's Dwyer would likely be ungraded. Crist mentions that not one of the runners contested a Triple Crown race; that's probably because NONE of the runners in the Dwyer entered the race with a stakes win. Even the heavy favorite Warriors Reward had not won more than a NW1X. I'll go out on a very small limb; this years Travers winner did not run today in the Dwyer.

No small limb...you are 100% correct...I'd be surprised if any of them even run in the Travers.

[Tom]

I think the winner is showing good late development and I figure him to trounce the so-called top 3 yos that ran early in the season. I had him because I did not like the favorite at all. As far his 113 Beyer - I though no way - he never ran it, it is a mistake, it means nothing. I don't know what it is this year, but I think The 3 yos are getting way to high mumbers - none of them are running as good as INvasor did. The numbers are secondary - it was a NW2x race, not a stakes.

The upside is, few of the early 3yos are stakes quality either.
Give me the late bloomer who looks to have been managed smartly.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Kensei will likely be pointed towards the King's Bishop. He broke his maiden at Saratoga last summer. They could try and stretch him out in the Jim Dandy to see if he can go 2 turns and then wheel back in the Bishop if he doesn't like the distance.

Munnings will be pointed toward the King's Bishop so I would expect a relatively short field for a G-I at Saratoga.

Then Gozzip Girl may be going to the dirt and the Alabama if Rachel doesn't go there. That one could be interesting.

[Quagmire]

The Kings Bishop will probably be a better race then the Travers this year. Munnings, Zensational, and Capt Candyman. Not bad.

[classhandicapper]

While I believe in speed figures, this race points out the problem of focusing on big figures earned against inferior competition, most of which were earned with the aid of good trips.

I agree, but I am not complaining about the fact that others often misinterpret the quality of many performances. ;)

[joanied]

"Then Gozzip Girl may be going to the dirt and the Alabama if Rachel doesn't go there. That one could be interesting."

That would be interesting...better so if Gozzip Girl goes AND Rachel is in there too...it's getting to be time now where the fillies are gonna have a hard time avoiding each other...and I think Rachel's competition will get better...as long as the trainers/owners of the other stakes fillies have the courage to run with her...if not, I guess Jackson will have no choice but to run RA against the colts again.

[cj]

The Beyer given for the Dwyer was 105. I'm not sure how they arrived at that number.

[classhandicapper]

The Beyer given for the Dwyer was 105. I'm not sure how they arrived at that number.

I haven't looked at the day yet, but based on your comment I'm assuming that means they broke the race out from the rest of the day????.

Either way, Beyer and associates are getting more and more like TG every year. Whatever they can't explain, they attribute to the track changing speeds and simply adjust the figure to a level they feel is sensible. I don't like it and think it's a POOR way of making SPEED figures. If you want to make performance figures that incorporate pace, trip etc... right into them just call them PFs and not speed figures. Tracks do change speed, but that should not be the default value.

[cj]

I haven't looked at the day yet, but based on your comment I'm assuming that means they broke the race out from the rest of the day????.

Either way, Beyer and associates are getting more and more like TG every year. Whatever they can't explain, they attribute to the track changing speeds and simply adjust the figure to a level they feel is sensible. I don't like it and think it's a POOR way of making SPEED figures. If you want to make performance figures that incorporate pace, trip etc... right into them just call them PFs and not speed figures. Tracks do change speed, but that should not be the default value.

Even if there was some legitimate reason to break the race out, what would lead the figure maker to assume these horses would run that fast? Certainly not their history.