How Do We Distinguish the Late Running Sprinter from the Natural Router?

[Cadillakin]

Simon Bray has been around horses the better part of his life and he doesn't know.. He thinks that runners who win sprints from off the pace are late-running sprinters.. He doesn't which is which. Pedigree is useful of course, but that's not what I'm looking for... When a player examines running lines, how does he know which runner will likely stretch out and which runner won't? What do late running sprinters do that "routers running in sprints" don't do?

Who knows?

[cj]

Most horses I have seen that successfully stretch out show pretty decent early speed sprinting, but doing it without urging. Horses that lag at the back rarely stretch out well.

[andymays]

I've got a feeling I should wait for you to tell us.

[senortout]

Gonna try and respond.

Simon Bray mentions late running sprinters as opposed to late runners at any distance....this makes sense to me because some horses, although taking a bit longer to attain full stride, are not suited to longer distances....wonder why Bob Baffert kept his BC champion sprinter at short distances..he came late with a big run.....

Its a stamina thing.

[46zilzal]

SIMPLE: energy distribution...has worked for over 25 years and I see no reason for it to disappear anytime soon.

What appears to be late running sprinters (except the REAL ones like Lit de Justice of Aldebaran) usually only get close to the board when the pacesetters totally collapse as to the predicted pressers. They only get there when the pace scenario gives it away.

[fmolf]

SIMPLE: energy distribution...has worked for over 25 years and I see no reason for it to disappear anytime soon.

What appears to be late running sprinters (except the REAL ones like Lit de Justice of Aldebaran) usually only get close to the board when the pacesetters totally collapse as to the predicted pressers. They only get there when the pace scenario gives it away.
early speed is effective across all distances.....I would say e/p and p types stretch out the best.....rating is more important at the route distances in my estimation.Sprinters who run even races seem to stretch out best.

[Tom]

Look for sprinters who run router energy patterns - ie, if routes run 52.00 - 52.50%,, you don't wnat a sprinter who runs 53.87% stretching out.
Or, if using Quirin, if routes are coming in +3 ( 100-103, 95 - 98....)
don't look at sprinters who run -7 (100-93, 106-97).

Check out Michicken's posts here - he has a neat way of measuring energy with BRIS numbers.

[Cratos]

Simon Bray has been around horses the better part of his life and he doesn't know.. He thinks that runners who win sprints from off the pace are late-running sprinters.. He doesn't which is which. Pedigree is useful of course, but that's not what I'm looking for... When a player examines running lines, how does he know which runner will likely stretch out and which runner won't? What do late running sprinters do that "routers running in sprints" don't do?

Who knows?
A sprinter is a sprinter whether it has a late running style, a pressing style, or a front-running style and the same goes for a router.

My experience have shown me that a winning racehorse effective winning distance is typically 1/8 mile beyond its optimum winning distance regardless of running style.

What that is saying is that a solid 5f sprinter could probably “stretch” and win at 6f, but at 6 ½f or 7f it would lose more often than win. The same goes for a router who optimized wins at a mile; its winning ways will come between 1m and 1 1/8 miles.

Are there exceptions to this assertion? Yes there are, but finding them is not easy and typically they happen when a horse with more class than its opposition moves up or down in distance.

[Robert Fischer]

most horses can't stretch out significantly.

so by default, the majority of those closing sprinters who have never proven otherwise will have problems stretching out significantly.

The misconception is that because a horse closes, he is somehow more likely
to enjoy a stretchout. Although it is getting almost as popular to say "he's a closing sprinter" as it is to assume "he'll love added distance with his style".

to address
how does he know which runner will likely stretch out and which runner won't? What do late running sprinters do that "routers running in sprints" don't do?
- one thing I do look at is to see if a horse is actually relaxing and rating off the pace or if he was really sprinting hard the whole way and just continued to grind after being outrun early. In short sprints a horse can be an unrateable speedball and still be considered a medium depth closer as long as he breaks slowly, and/or is not as quick early as his competition. When he grinds home consistently it gives the illusion of closing.

the trips they have been getting are also tremendous indicators. He broke slow, was rushed up by a bonehead jock, dueled with the heavy favorite, moved prematurely, went 5 wide on the turn, and still finished gamely including a gallop out! (of course the same jock might be back lol)

I know you want running lines but seeing the physical look matters a lot. You would prefer a big beast of a horse that just effortlessly cruises to the front, as opposed to a little powerpack who looks like he is running all his might. Pedigree matters a ton. Trainers matter.

Sometimes in pace lines it's ok for the late pace to tail off a little , if the step up in distance is gradual and you figure he is a lone speed - that's seldom a closer though

[nobeyerspls]

When a maiden stretches out for the first time, my first screen is conformation. This means a trip to the paddock to look at the horse. If they played football, two-turn horses would be wide receivers (lanky) and sprinters would be fullbacks (stocky). This has served me very well over the years.
It's nice if the breeding confirms the visual inspection but I do not rely on the Tomlinsons.
There is a race at Churchill today where this method may uncover a nice priced winner.

[BIG49010]

I look at height, and build.

[CBedo]

I use energy distribution as well, but one simple way for me to quickly judge a stretchout candidate by looking at the running lines has been to look for horses who ran fairly even in their sprints, and the closer up at the first call the better. So a horse that ran something like 4th by 3, 5th by 3 1/2, 4th by 3 1/2 and finished 5th by 4. These even runners will be up closer in the route and seem to have a better chance of having the stamina to hang around.

I've never been a big fan of the big closer in sprints stretching out.

[andicap]

To me, the best way of figuring out which sprinters stretch out is do your own research. I've sometimes found when I follow someone else's suggestion I don't do as well with it because that person knows all the nuances, exceptions, etc. that goes with that idea. Now, suggestions are great because they give you a head start in your research, a good point of reference to begin with.

The best way to do this is have a way of copying a horse's PPs to a word document or some other such program. Or you can print them out and cut and paste or if you use a paper form, literally cut and paste. If you subscribe to HTR for example (and probably other fine programs) its easy to print a race to file and save the winners PPs.

Find as many stretchout winners as you can across the tracks you play and look for patterns, etc. You'll see when certain ideas work and when they don't. I like to make notes next to the PP as well -- something like the pace picture in the race, a class drop, wet track, etc.

For what it's worth, I've found the whole idea of deceleration a worthwhile study for stretchouts -- really just another way to look at energy. Remember, except for grass races horses that look like their speeding up in the stretch are just slowing down. Horses that have more even energy patterns are often good candidates for stretching out. No firm rules -- some trainers are better than others in doing this, a horse might run into an adverse pace scenario or is just simply going out of form.

[andymays]

C'mon Cadillakin, many of us want to know!