Rachel or Zenyatta?????

[duckhunter3]

Who is the best? Both victories yesterday were super impressive, with Zenyatta carrying 16 lbs more than anyone in the field (theoretically 2 lbs is supposed to be equivalent to 1 length, so that is spotting the field 8 lengths) and still winning handily under a hand ride, and Rachel setting a new stakes record at BEL with 1:46 and change and 20+ lengths at the wire. Rachel beats the boys and Zenyatta is 11 of 11, and more lightly raced since she is much older than Rachel.

It would be great to see a match race between the two, no other horses to cause pace issues or traffic problems. Just the two on a fast dirt track at 1 1/8 miles, and let them duke it out.

I have a sentimental spot in my heart for Zenyatta since her trainer and jock are the connections to Giacomo. I was sitting at the first turn in 2005 when Giacomo won the Derby over Closing Argument.

So interested to hear opinions on which is the best. Man, they both seem to be super females.
duck

[depalma113]

It would be great to see a match race between the two, no other horses to cause pace issues or traffic problems. Just the two on a fast dirt track at 1 1/8 miles, and let them duke it out.
duck

Rachel Alexandra would bury Zenyatta in a match race.

[cj]

There is no way in the world two pounds equals one length, so why even mention it?

[bane]

Right now...and I mean right now... Zenyetta would beat her in a field of 6+, RA would beat her in a match race and we will never see that. RA in my opnion will be unbeatable in August/

[cj's dad]

Match races are a disaster in the making. Please, just say no !!!

[duckhunter3]

There is no way in the world two pounds equals one length, so why even mention it?

You ask for opinions on this board, and man, you get them!

[duckhunter3]

Match races are a disaster in the making. Please, just say no !!!

Yes, you really do get opinions- whether right or wrong.

[broadreach]

Rachel for me, and a match race would generate lots of hype, and thats a good thing for racing.
Put up 100k for the winner and add a pacemaker.

[Bison]

Race run on plastic = Zenyatta
Race run on dirt = RA

[Cadillakin]

Race run on plastic = Zenyatta
Race run on dirt = RA
Zenyatta raced one time on the dirt.. It was the 4th race of her career. She shipped to run in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park against much more seasoned fillies and mares. After the race was over, the Blood Horse stated; "Zenyatta Blows Away Her Foes in the Apple Blossom."

Conversely, as DanG and a couple of others have pointed out in this forum, Rachel ran brilliantly over the tough Keeneland synthetic...

So, I think there is no basis whatsoever for thinking one or the other will gain a definitive advantage over dirt versus synthetic.

[andymays]

Pro Ride at Santa Anita is not like any other synthetic surface. It is made and applied differently!

[Bison]

Zenyatta raced one time on the dirt.. It was the 4th race of her career. She shipped to run in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park against much more seasoned fillies and mares. After the race was over, the Blood Horse stated; "Zenyatta Blows Away Her Foes in the Apple Blossom."

Conversely, as DanG and a couple of others have pointed out in this forum, Rachel ran brilliantly over the tough Keeneland synthetic...

So, I think there is no basis whatsoever for thinking one or the other will gain a definitive advantage over dirt versus synthetic.

That's the beauty of horse racing. Everyone's got an opinion.

[GMB@BP]

Pro Ride at Santa Anita is not like any other synthetic surface. It is made and applied differently!

agree completely, its still not as bad as Kee poly or DMR poly, if which I refuse to bet.

If it was at Hol that would be completely fair.

[itrysohard]

I feel it all comes down to the running style, ultimately. If they two ran today, it would definately be RA with her current running style. Z is pretty set in her style at this point in her career. If RA's style changes as she matures, who know? Will they ever run against each other? It would be awesome for the sport.
Don't get me started on surfaces, it just makes me mad.
:mad:

[DanG]

I just hope they meet…somewhere.

We all know so well that thoroughbreds of this quality are like comets; once you see one…it’s usually gone. The window of opportunity is so narrow by the time this thread is archived we often don’t have these animals in training any longer to even discuss.

The stars are aligned after Moss’s comments yesterday and if I’m NYRA I apply the full court press of a lifetime to make it happen at Saratoga. Bribe the trainer, the owner, the groom, make Calvin’s girlfriend her favorite Étouffée, bake each horse a triple layer carrot cake…whatever it takes.

BTW: A meeting would be bitter / sweet for me; I love them both. I feel Rachel is the best thoroughbred in our country of any age and I also think (in general) east of the Mississippi that Zenyatta is not getting anywhere close to the credit she has earned.

This is more directed at the many brief 2 & 3yo campaigns in the last two decades that were abbreviated once a good figure was achieved and / or classic race was won and not necessarily these two.

The days of each graded victory / high figure (anywhere) equaling an Arab / Irish winning lottery ticket have been suspended; somewhat. We can start risking individual accomplishment for the sake of the sport again. Having said that; if I owned (say; Smarty Jones in my present circumstances) I would have a hard time turning down a fortune that would set up several generations of my family.

[duckhunter3]

Beautifully said, Dan. Very artful in form, very perceptive in substance. Thanks for adding something special to this thread.
duck

[joanied]

There is no way in the world two pounds equals one length, so why even mention it?

cj...he may have gotten that from TVG or HRTV...crap, I can't recall which because I was watching both...but they (I beleive Gary Stevens?) were discussing Zenyatta's high weight and said that 2lbs equals about a length...they had a chart and everything....
go figure!

[joanied]

Match races are a disaster in the making. Please, just say no !!!

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Happy is saw your post first because I was gonna say the same thing...and I hope a match isn't what Moss or Jackson would have in mind...
besides, considering their running styles, it really would not be a match race at all...just 2 horses running several lengths apart and not hooking up until the 1/16th pole.

Ditto, cj's dad..just say NO:ThmbDown:

[duckhunter3]

There is no way in the world two pounds equals one length, so why even mention it?

Okay, well, then how much weight DOES equal one length? And on what basis do you make the claim? there have been some sarcastic comments here. I don't know if any of you are former jockeys (like Gary Stevens), but if you want to criticize what he says, then let's hear your answer and the BASIS for your answer. I personally have no idea and hope I said that THEORETICALLY, according to Stevens, 2 lbs equals one length.

The race officials obviously thought much more weight in this Handicap race was the way to go with Zenyatta, probably because of her win in the MiLady, as I recall.

In any event, if we want to learn, let's have some explanation here instead of just off-hand dismissals.

I am here to learn. So tell me, all of you, did the track officials UNDERWEIGHT Zenyatta for the true purpose of a handicap? Obviously they are trying their best to get it right, and make it an "at the wire" finish. That is the purpose of a handicap race as I understand it.

So come on and be a race official here and tell us what you would have done.

I have never thought weight meant anything for handicapping unless it was over 5 pounds and in a route. This was much, much more.
duck

[Dinomantis]

Zenyatta raced one time on the dirt.. It was the 4th race of her career. She shipped to run in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park against much more seasoned fillies and mares. After the race was over, the Blood Horse stated; "Zenyatta Blows Away Her Foes in the Apple Blossom."

Conversely, as DanG and a couple of others have pointed out in this forum, Rachel ran brilliantly over the tough Keeneland synthetic...

So, I think there is no basis whatsoever for thinking one or the other will gain a definitive advantage over dirt versus synthetic.
Oaklawn is my home track, and I saw that race. She didn't really have much competition entered, in my view.

As for the dirt vs. synthetic, it's well known that it's easier for most horses to go from synthetic to dirt than vice versa.

It's a tough call, and I'm a fan of both horses, but I'd lean towards Rachael, mostly because she seems to have more heart, whereas Zenyatta is all class. In any race, where two horses are "the greatest," the heart always wins, if present form isn't an issue.

Not to mention the fact that Borel would probably be on her, and while it may seem nonsense to many a handicapper, I think they like one another almost like a man and his favorite dog. I've seen them interact, and she responds to Calvin, whereas Mike Smith and Zenyatta seem to have merely a professional relationship, even though she is sometimes playful before races.

In a game where it's well known that if you make them happy, they'll do anything they can for you, I would likewise give that tilt to Rachael. Zenyatta wins with greater ease, but in a race of two hearts, she will lose.

[ghostyapper]

Oaklawn is my home track, and I saw that race. She didn't really have much competition entered, in my view.

It's a tough call, and I'm a fan of both horses, but I'd lean towards Rachael, mostly because she seems to have more heart, whereas Zenyatta is all class. In any race, where two horses are "the greatest," the heart always wins, if present form isn't an issue.

Not to mention the fact that Borel would probably be on her, and while it may seem nonsense to many a handicapper, I think they like one another almost like a man and his favorite dog. I've seen them interact, and she responds to Calvin, whereas Mike Smith and Zenyatta seem to have merely a professional relationship, even though she is sometimes playful before races.

In a game where it's well known that if you make them happy, they'll do anything they can for you, I would likewise give that tilt to Rachael. Zenyatta wins with greater ease, but in a race of two hearts, she will lose.

The oaklawn race included ginger punch, the reigning champion mare so I don't know how you can say there wasn't much competition there.

And how could you possibly say that rachel gets the edge in heart when zenyatta has never lost?

[joanied]

Rachel for me, and a match race would generate lots of hype, and thats a good thing for racing.
Put up 100k for the winner and add a pacemaker.

NOT:ThmbDown:

[cj]

The oaklawn race included ginger punch, the reigning champion mare so I don't know how you can say there wasn't much competition there.

And how could you possibly say that rachel gets the edge in heart when zenyatta has never lost?

Ginger Punch and Rachel Alexandra, even a 3 year old Rachel, are light years apart on ability.

[joanied]

Okay, well, then how much weight DOES equal one length? And on what basis do you make the claim? there have been some sarcastic comments here. I don't know if any of you are former jockeys (like Gary Stevens), but if you want to criticize what he says, then let's hear your answer and the BASIS for your answer. I personally have no idea and hope I said that THEORETICALLY, according to Stevens, 2 lbs equals one length.

The race officials obviously thought much more weight in this Handicap race was the way to go with Zenyatta, probably because of her win in the MiLady, as I recall.

In any event, if we want to learn, let's have some explanation here instead of just off-hand dismissals.

I am here to learn. So tell me, all of you, did the track officials UNDERWEIGHT Zenyatta for the true purpose of a handicap? Obviously they are trying their best to get it right, and make it an "at the wire" finish. That is the purpose of a handicap race as I understand it.

So come on and be a race official here and tell us what you would have done.

I have never thought weight meant anything for handicapping unless it was over 5 pounds and in a route. This was much, much more.
duck


Duck.... This is a quote from a handicapping glossary:

"As a very rough rule of thumb, 1lb equates to one Length, so if a horse wins a race by 4 Lengths, all other things being equal, he can expect his handicap mark to rise by a similar amount."

Gary Stevens is great, but he does make a mistake now & then...either that, or the above quote got it wrong... no doubt you could do a little research and get your own information about this...but, IMO...the 1lb is correct...

if it isn't...someone will jump in here...cj...where are ya?

IMO...the weight assigned to Zenyatta for the Vanity was fair...obviously, she won with her ears up...it seemed like a ton to put on her, but a mare like that can deal with it....

Good for you to ask questions so you can learn the game...and shame on anyone that replies with snide remarks (IMO, cj was not being mean spirited, Duck...he just threw in a one sentence reply...prob'ly more surprised that Stevens said it was 2 lbs than anything else:) )....

anyway...everyone is 'green' about something at one time or another...and one way to learn is to ask questions...
:) :) :)

[duckhunter3]

Duck.... This is a quote from a handicapping glossary:

"As a very rough rule of thumb, 1lb equates to one Length, so if a horse wins a race by 4 Lengths, all other things being equal, he can expect his handicap mark to rise by a similar amount."

Gary Stevens is great, but he does make a mistake now & then...either that, or the above quote got it wrong... no doubt you could do a little research and get your own information about this...but, IMO...the 1lb is correct...

if it isn't...someone will jump in here...cj...where are ya?

IMO...the weight assigned to Zenyatta for the Vanity was fair...obviously, she won with her ears up...it seemed like a ton to put on her, but a mare like that can deal with it....

Good for you to ask questions so you can learn the game...and shame on anyone that replies with snide remarks (IMO, cj was not being mean spirited, Duck...he just threw in a one sentence reply...prob'ly more surprised that Stevens said it was 2 lbs than anything else:) )....

anyway...everyone is 'green' about something at one time or another...and one way to learn is to ask questions...
:) :) :)

I am really confused now. You seem to be saying that the rough rule of thumb is that Zenyatta spotted the field 16 lengths. I just heard from CJ on the other thread I started on this issue, and unless I am plain stupid (and I don't think I am), his research seemed to be saying something like less than 6 lengths for the weight and the distance.

But I appreciate you very kind response. We should have more of that here.
duck

P.S. Meanwhile, I think I will continue to ignore weight as I always have, except in rare circumstances. I doubt it has cost me much money. and I darn sure don't worry about it in bread and butter races like cheap claimeers, except, as someone here mentioned, there is a situation where two horses have run against each other and are now switching weight advantages big time.

thanks for the reply. Hope you learn something here also.
duck

[cj]

I mean this in all seriousness...if you want to know how much influence something has on results, using the following pecking order:


serious bettors
trainers
everybody else
jockeys

[andymays]

I mean this in all seriousness...if you want to know how much influence something has on results, using the following pecking order:


serious bettors
trainers
everybody else
jockeys



Right on the money CJ!

[Dinomantis]

The oaklawn race included ginger punch, the reigning champion mare so I don't know how you can say there wasn't much competition there.

And how could you possibly say that rachel gets the edge in heart when zenyatta has never lost?
I meant the Apple Blossom was more of a match race last year. It's often light in the number of horses, compared to other Grade I's run on the East and West coasts. I suspect because of location, purse, etc. It's the only Grade I run at Oaklawn too.

The "heart" issue is subjective to individual observation. I was merely giving an opinion of what I've seen. Again, I'm an equal fan of both horses, and would be happy if either won.

[Cadillakin]

Oaklawn is my home track, and I saw that race. She didn't really have much competition entered, in my view.
That wasn't the point that I was making when you quoted me. I thought I said pretty clearly that both horses seem to handle either surface very well.

As for the dirt vs. synthetic, it's well known that it's easier for most horses to go from synthetic to dirt than vice versa.
Just who is it well known to? In theory, both should be equally disadvantaged, in that both will be developing habits, tendencies, and muscling suited to the surface they normally train and race over. A synthetic horse may not act well when the pace is quite fast as he will be used to more moderate pacing.. Also, he may be taking kickback which he normally doesn't encounter.. Conversely, a dirt horse might find the synthetic much too demanding .. and his natural ability to express his speed and stay the distance might be much inhibited.


In any event, whatever the answers are, they differ from one individual to the other... Rachel and Zenyatta have handled all surfaces in a superior manner...

[ghostyapper]

Ginger Punch and Rachel Alexandra, even a 3 year old Rachel, are light years apart on ability.

Where was I comparing those 2? All I said was the oaklawn race was not a light field. A race does not have to have rachel in it in order for the field to be strong.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not so sure how easy it is to compare Zenyatta and Rachel.

Rachel had a very lively pace in front of her and easily overtook some very overmatched foes after they torched each other setting a pace that was too fast for their current level of ability. It was a very good trip for maximizing a figure.

Zenyatta was well off a pedestrian pace that picked up a lot in the middle, but almost certainly prevented her from earning her best possible figure. In addition, even though I'm not a big fan of weight adjustments, Zenyatta carried quite a load in her race.

Personally, I don't think it's possible to compare these fillies using speed figures or margins of victory because of the different nature of racing between dirt and synthetic tracks. I think they are probably a lot closer than it appears based on any numerical measurement.

Zenyatta is not undefeated and didn't beat one of the best Ladies Handicap fields we have had in a long time because she's a very good horse. IMO she's a monster with figures that do not reflect her ability and talent.

If they were to meet on dirt, I would have to give Rachel the edge. But if they met on a synthetic track or on a track that wasn't speed favoring, I think Rachel would hear some serious hoofbeats at around the 1/8th pole and the horse coming at her would be a lot better than Mine That Bird.

[Marshall Bennett]

Match races are a disaster in the making. Please, just say no !!!
Those two lined up in a common race would result in that anyway . :)

[Hank]

I mean this in all seriousness...if you want to know how much influence something has on results, using the following pecking order:



serious bettors
trainers
everybody else
jockeys



Bingo.A bookmaker could live well with just the jocks room action.

[Hank]

Who is the best? Both victories yesterday were super impressive, with Zenyatta carrying 16 lbs more than anyone in the field (theoretically 2 lbs is supposed to be equivalent to 1 length, so that is spotting the field 8 lengths) and still winning handily under a hand ride, and Rachel setting a new stakes record at BEL with 1:46 and change and 20+ lengths at the wire. Rachel beats the boys and Zenyatta is 11 of 11, and more lightly raced since she is much older than Rachel.

It would be great to see a match race between the two, no other horses to cause pace issues or traffic problems. Just the two on a fast dirt track at 1 1/8 miles, and let them duke it out.

I have a sentimental spot in my heart for Zenyatta since her trainer and jock are the connections to Giacomo. I was sitting at the first turn in 2005 when Giacomo won the Derby over Closing Argu

So interested to hear opinions on which is the best. Man, they both seem to be super females.
duck

A quality speed is almost always the superior animal.RA

[joanied]

I really don't think you can use their race stats to really compare Z and RA...one is older and fully matured, the other is still maturing and they have completely different running styles...pretty hard to compare.
I think to answer is that they are both equal in talent, heart and class:)

[statepierback]

I would play the better price of the two and enjoy the race. Its a very tough call. :bang:

[joanied]

Those two lined up in a common race would result in that anyway . :)

We best not hold our breath...

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51442/zenyatta-rachel--duel-unlikely-before-bc?utm_source=BreakingNews&utm_medium=email

If it's left up to the Zenyatta camp...there will be no meeting until maybe after the BC....Moss now says Z won't ship out of CA...

but, you are right...Z & RA with 7 or 8 other's in there, and it would be a match race from the 1/4 pole to the wire.

[cj]

For this reason alone, Zenyatta will never be considered a great in my opinion. The racing in Cali is a joke right now. Winning one race on dirt outside that state is hardly legendary stuff.

Like Jackson or not, he is obviously much more sporting than the guys connected with Zenyatta.

[BlueShoe]

Am firmly in the Z camp,but in a match race the early speed horse always has a huge edge over the closer.Rachel is brilliant,but Z is a polished pro who does just what she needs to do in order to get the job done.In a full field with a swift contested pace against older fillies and mares Rachel Alexandra would be hearing some ominous footsteps when Zenyatta came calling in the stretch,and,in my opinion,Zenyatta would tie her to the rail in the last sixteenth.

[slewis]

For this reason alone, Zenyatta will never be considered a great in my opinion. The racing in Cali is a joke right now. Winning one race on dirt outside that state is hardly legendary stuff.

Like Jackson or not, he is obviously much more sporting than the guys connected with Zenyatta.

CJ,

Good point....

The Z team knows what they are doing.... and they know Rachel will whip their fillie anywhere outside of California so it's foolish for people to throw fantasy around.
Rachel brings her game to any track. She's beaten a very underrated group of 3 yr old colts. She's in more competent hands with Asmussen and will probably improve.

This race will never happen.

[Java Gold@TFT]

You've got to love the new excuses. First Moss criticizes Jackson because Curlin's performance on synthetic would stop Rachel from running in the BC and then says he won't race in NY because of the way Giacomo reacted to the detention barn. Giacomo was going to get wooped in the Belmont no matter what he did in the detention barn so now Zenyatta shouldn't be subjected to that hideous intrusion on her race day preps?

The saga will continue.

[rokitman]

Maybe we can get a load of slots players' money for the purse and run the race on Equisim.

[FenceBored]

Dagnabit, I can't resist anymore.

<outragous conspiracy nut stuff>
"But what we need to do, and how (trainer) John (Shirreffs) operates, is to have her at her peak for the Breeders’ Cup.”

And what is there about how Shirreffs operates that makes him believe putting her through the detention barn means she wouldn't be at her peak for Breeders' Cup? Har, har, har.

</outragous conspiracy nut stuff>

C'mon people, don't lob a slow one over the center of the plate, fer cripes sake.

[Cadillakin]

CJ,
Rachel brings her game to any track. She's beaten a very underrated group of 3 yr old colts.

My experience is that nobody really knows the if the crop is strong until the 3 year olds venture outside of restricted races. Unless there is the unusual circumstance where you have two or more colts racing in different locales, such as Affirmed and Alydar, that are dominant in every race and every area of the country.. Then we know. There is nobody close to that caliber in the 3 year old ranks at the moment. I don't think there is a valid argument otherwise.

In the West, we had The Pamplemousse who lit up the deeper synthetics.. He was brilliantly fast and the only horse I saw through the whole season on either coast that was putting together pace segments befitting a potentially great horse... (Other than Rachel) On dirt, he might have been any kind.. But the rest of them; Oh well.. not much to say... Nothing good, anyway.

IMO, the older horses on both coasts are nothing to brag about... But, seemingly, your opinion differs and you're thinking these 3 year olds should venture outside the restricted ranks, get a couple lbs and prove best over Einstein and company? We shall see...

Speaking for myself, I'm not impressed with a single one of them. Rachel is the only top class 3 year old I've seen other than The Pamplemousse. I didn't see the other 3 year olds of good potential in the East who went to the sidelines early.

So, I take issue with your categorization of these 3 year olds as much underrated.. Without Rachel, IMO, they are a very sad lot.

[Cadillakin]

Zenyatta is not undefeated and didn't beat one of the best Ladies Handicap fields we have had in a long time because she's a very good horse. IMO she's a monster with figures that do not reflect her ability and talent.

I try to be fair to both.. They are both great.. But the one thing that really perplexes me about the numbers guys is why they aren't doing backflips over some of Zenyatta's third-fourth quarter moves... In at least 3 of her races, she has raced from the 3/8ths to the 1/8th pole in 22.4 or faster - ON THE TURN WHILE RACING WIDEST. In the other races, she travels nearly that fast. In the Breeders Cup, she went 22.3 from the 3/8ths to the 1/8th pole.

I have never seen a single horse in my lifetime that made a move like that in route (two turn) races on the dirt on that last bend. NOBODY. Furthermore, Zenyatta would much benefit from torrid fractions out in front of her.. but in fact, with the exception of one race where Mike Smith inexplicably moved her early chasing a rabbit down the backside, she has raced far behind moderate (par) or lesser paces. This puts the stretch runner at great disadvantage in that the entire field gets first run on her and nobody is coming back to her. A runner of that sort needs an overwhelming class advantage.

So, i agree with you wholeheartedly, ClassHandicapper. She is a monster, but most of the figure guys can't see it...

That IS the hole in their game.

[joanied]

I'm very disappointed that Moss has changed his mind about shipping Z and using Giacomo's freak out in the D Barn seems flimsy at best...to me Z seems like a mare that never gets her feathers ruffled...that she has such a good mind, is very intelligent, and that something like time in the D barn wouldn't effect her at all.

Didn't Rachel have to stay in the D Barn before the Mother Goose? If she can deal with it...I'm sure Z could also.
Lame excuse. Keeping Z in CA is not fair to the mare...she should go down in the history books as one of the best...but staying in CA is going to put an * next to her name...what a shame.

We all want trainers/owners to do the right thing for their horses...but, IMO, there is no good reason not to ship Zenyatta...when they shipped her to Oaklawn, didn't she stay in their D Barn before her race there...and when they took her to Churchill, wouldn't she have had to stay in the D Barn there if they'd not scratched her?

Geeze:faint:

[DanG]

Speaking for myself, I'm not impressed with a single one of them. Rachel is the only top class 3 year old I've seen other than The Pamplemousse. I didn't see the other 3 year olds of good potential in the East who went to the sidelines early.

So, I take issue with your categorization of these 3 year olds as much underrated.. Without Rachel, IMO, they are a very sad lot.

I agree Cad if you’re considering the entire crop, but when 'I Want Revenge' following a wire-wire stk with getting left and winning the Wood it showed real talent…and Quality Road (when healthy...huge if) is one serious race horse imo.

A tuned up Quality Road vs. a tuned up Rachel and you will see vapor trails back to 3rd. :eek:

[tucker6]

I'm very disappointed that Moss has changed his mind about shipping Z and using Giacomo's freak out in the D Barn seems flimsy at best...to me Z seems like a mare that never gets her feathers ruffled...that she has such a good mind, is very intelligent, and that something like time in the D barn wouldn't effect her at all.

Didn't Rachel have to stay in the D Barn before the Mother Goose? If she can deal with it...I'm sure Z could also.
Lame excuse. Keeping Z in CA is not fair to the mare...she should go down in the history books as one of the best...but staying in CA is going to put an * next to her name...what a shame.

We all want trainers/owners to do the right thing for their horses...but, IMO, there is no good reason not to ship Zenyatta...when they shipped her to Oaklawn, didn't she stay in their D Barn before her race there...and when they took her to Churchill, wouldn't she have had to stay in the D Barn there if they'd not scratched her?

Geeze:faint:
Are you insinuating that the excuse is flimsy at best?? :faint:

[socal]

I'm very disappointed that Moss has changed his mind about shipping Z and using Giacomo's freak out in the D Barn seems flimsy at best...to me Z seems like a mare that never gets her feathers ruffled...that she has such a good mind, is very intelligent, and that something like time in the D barn wouldn't effect her at all.

Didn't Rachel have to stay in the D Barn before the Mother Goose? If she can deal with it...I'm sure Z could also.
Lame excuse. Keeping Z in CA is not fair to the mare...she should go down in the history books as one of the best...but staying in CA is going to put an * next to her name...what a shame.

We all want trainers/owners to do the right thing for their horses...but, IMO, there is no good reason not to ship Zenyatta...when they shipped her to Oaklawn, didn't she stay in their D Barn before her race there...and when they took her to Churchill, wouldn't she have had to stay in the D Barn there if they'd not scratched her?

Geeze:faint:


I know everyone wants to see these two run against each other.
I know I do.Why put the onus on Z and her connections,when it seems RAs connections are the ones avoiding the breeders which should be the focus of years end.
Moss wants another breeders cup race and there are good races here in cali leading up to that.
It would be silly to ship back and forth and put that goal in question.
Lets not be mistaken,its RA camp that is ducking out.

[andymays]

I know everyone wants to see these two run against each other.
I know I do.Why put the onus on Z and her connections,when it seems RAs connections are the ones avoiding the breeders which should be the focus of years end.
Moss wants another breeders cup race and there are good races here in cali leading up to that.
It would be silly to ship back and forth and put that goal in question.
Lets not be mistaken,its RA camp that is ducking out.


I understand what your saying but at this point I think Zenyatta needs to step up and show the world how good she really is. If that means the boys in the Breeders Cup Classic then so be it.

We all want to see the best she has.

Having said that, the connections have the right to do whatever they want with her.

[socal]

I understand what your saying but at this point I think Zenyatta needs to step up and show the world how good she really is. If that means the boys in the Breeders Cup Classic then so be it.

We all want to see the best she has.

Having said that, the connections have the right to do whatever they want with her.

I agree about the classic.
she`ll need that if shes to over take anyone for HOY.
Thats why I believe she stays home.The pacific should be a great spot.
I`ll take the surf liner down for that.

[classhandicapper]

I try to be fair to both.. They are both great.. But the one thing that really perplexes me about the numbers guys is why they aren't doing backflips over some of Zenyatta's third-fourth quarter moves... In at least 3 of her races, she has raced from the 3/8ths to the 1/8th pole in 22.4 or faster - ON THE TURN WHILE RACING WIDEST. In the other races, she travels nearly that fast. In the Breeders Cup, she went 22.3 from the 3/8ths to the 1/8th pole.

I have never seen a single horse in my lifetime that made a move like that in route (two turn) races on the dirt on that last bend. NOBODY. Furthermore, Zenyatta would much benefit from torrid fractions out in front of her.. but in fact, with the exception of one race where Mike Smith inexplicably moved her early chasing a rabbit down the backside, she has raced far behind moderate (par) or lesser paces. This puts the stretch runner at great disadvantage in that the entire field gets first run on her and nobody is coming back to her. A runner of that sort needs an overwhelming class advantage.

So, i agree with you wholeheartedly, ClassHandicapper. She is a monster, but most of the figure guys can't see it...

That IS the hole in their game.

Her style is suited to that surface, but I think you are identifying harder to measure aspects of her ability that sometimes don't how up in numbers and especially don't often show up in numbers on synthetics.

It's a shame we won't get to see her on dirt a couple of more times because I think she'd adjust and crush the best dirt fillies also (with the possible exception of Rachel who IMO is also freakishly good).

[classhandicapper]

I'm very disappointed that Moss has changed his mind about shipping Z and using Giacomo's freak out in the D Barn seems flimsy at best...to me Z seems like a mare that never gets her feathers ruffled...that she has such a good mind, is very intelligent, and that something like time in the D barn wouldn't effect her at all.

Didn't Rachel have to stay in the D Barn before the Mother Goose? If she can deal with it...I'm sure Z could also.
Lame excuse. Keeping Z in CA is not fair to the mare...she should go down in the history books as one of the best...but staying in CA is going to put an * next to her name...what a shame.

We all want trainers/owners to do the right thing for their horses...but, IMO, there is no good reason not to ship Zenyatta...when they shipped her to Oaklawn, didn't she stay in their D Barn before her race there...and when they took her to Churchill, wouldn't she have had to stay in the D Barn there if they'd not scratched her?

Geeze:faint:

I think what we are dealing with here is that both camps know that dirt tends to favor speed and most synthetics tend to favor a big kick at a route of ground. There really isn't a neutral surface and location and neither wants to put their filly at a disadvantage.

Maybe instead of thinking in terms of surface, they should be thinking in terms of distance.

How about an 8 1/2F race on synthetic or a 10F race or dirt (something like that)????

[GMB@BP]

I think the surface is holding her back, I have always felt her best race, the race she seemed to move the best, was at OP, a very speed friendly track.

I am cool going from the Distaff to the Clark, but whats in it for RA, she has everything to lose and nothing to gain.

[joanied]

Are you insinuating that the excuse is flimsy at best?? :faint:

At best....I used the term 'lame'...which now that I think about it, is a bad word in racing :bang: ...flimsy is better:ThmbUp:
:) :) :)

[joanied]

I think what we are dealing with here is that both camps know that dirt tends to favor speed and most synthetics tend to favor a big kick at a route of ground. There really isn't a neutral surface and location and neither wants to put their filly at a disadvantage.

Maybe instead of thinking in terms of surface, they should be thinking in terms of distance.

How about an 8 1/2F race on synthetic or a 10F race or dirt (something like that)????

If the Pro Ride favors the big kick...then why was it that last year's BC races were being touted as front runner races...
seems to me, folks can't make up their minds about how the Pro Ride plays...and from what I've read, it seems to change by the hour....which is prob'ly why folks can't make up their minds about wether it's a late kick or a front runner surface.:confused:

As for Zenyatta shipping here and there leading up to the BC and being at a disadvantage because of it...no one expects them to start shipping her every month...just a time or two before BC Day...and after all, there is plenty of time for Z to ship out, kick some ass on the dirt, and be back home with at least several weeks before BC day...in fact, they said in a story I just read about all this stuff that she is an excellent shipper...which also maintains my position about the Detention Barns...Z is too intelligent, to professional, and too laid back to be bothered with a stay in the D Barn...which I assume she did when she was at Oaklawn.
:)

[slewis]

My experience is that nobody really knows the if the crop is strong until the 3 year olds venture outside of restricted races. Unless there is the unusual circumstance where you have two or more colts racing in different locales, such as Affirmed and Alydar, that are dominant in every race and every area of the country.. Then we know. There is nobody close to that caliber in the 3 year old ranks at the moment. I don't think there is a valid argument otherwise.

In the West, we had The Pamplemousse who lit up the deeper synthetics.. He was brilliantly fast and the only horse I saw through the whole season on either coast that was putting together pace segments befitting a potentially great horse... (Other than Rachel) On dirt, he might have been any kind.. But the rest of them; Oh well.. not much to say... Nothing good, anyway.

IMO, the older horses on both coasts are nothing to brag about... But, seemingly, your opinion differs and you're thinking these 3 year olds should venture outside the restricted ranks, get a couple lbs and prove best over Einstein and company? We shall see...

Speaking for myself, I'm not impressed with a single one of them. Rachel is the only top class 3 year old I've seen other than The Pamplemousse. I didn't see the other 3 year olds of good potential in the East who went to the sidelines early.

So, I take issue with your categorization of these 3 year olds as much underrated.. Without Rachel, IMO, they are a very sad lot.

Thank you for reading my post and taking issue...

You state: "Without Rachel, they are a very sad lot"...

Caddy, I think you need to watch a replay of the Preakness. Another 50-100 feet and Rachel runs second to MTB.
Considering she didn't demolish the colts in a hand ride, which is it???
Is she now just "mediocre" or is MTB very good??? You cant have it both ways.

Next, Pioneer ofthe Nile ran a credible KD and he was no slouch in Southern Cal prior to. He ran so well that Ron Anderson choose him for Garrett Gomez over the highly touted Dunkirk, who was just beaten by the Super Horse (who I dont think is that super) Quality Road.
Summer Bird, lightly raced going into, ran a VERY good Arkansas Derby, probably didn't care for the wet strip at CD, and won the Belmont.

You're off base on the 3 yr olds, especially when you bring up the name Einstein... I'll give you a minimum of 5 (five) 3 yr olds in training that are better than Einstein on the dirt.

[Dinomantis]

Summer Bird, lightly raced going into, ran a VERY good Arkansas Derby, probably didn't care for the wet strip at CD, and won the Belmont.

I agree, and I think that it's time to make the Arkansas Derby a Grade I. :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

I know everyone wants to see these two run against each other.
I know I do.Why put the onus on Z and her connections,when it seems RAs connections are the ones avoiding the breeders which should be the focus of years end.
Moss wants another breeders cup race and there are good races here in cali leading up to that.
It would be silly to ship back and forth and put that goal in question.


I agree. If I were an owner, what would I rather have on my horse's racing history? A Breeders Cup victory, or a match race with a filly in some other part of the US?



Not saying anyone is ducking anybody else, though. Match races don't appeal to me, so I don't care if they race against each other or not. They don't even favor the same surface! Unless they ran one on dirt, then one on the fake stuff. That's the only *fair* match and you would have to have 2 races.

(However, that said, usually when one horse is a champion, and another one is "up-and-coming", then isn't the onus on the latter one to go and meet up with the previous champ? IF you were into match races, which I'm not.) What is the protocol? In any sport, I've never seen the oldster champion "RUN" to the up-and-coming begging for a match, have you? :confused:


I probably shouldn't say this, but I always wished Curlin had stayed with Helen Pitts. Let's just say I have a "hunch" and it has something to do with Rachel leaving Wiggins for this crew.

[joanied]

Winter T....

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2009/07/01/rachel-vs-zenyatta-how-to-make-it-happen.aspx

Just say NO to match :ThmbDown: races....but read Haskin's blog piece (above)...he's come up with a pretty good idea.

You got me kitty-cat curious about your 'hunch' :)

[socal]

This is what I like.
An idea that goes beyond the norm.Let all connections follow their hearts and meet at the right moment, in a race that could be generational.