dav4463
06-26-2009, 06:37 PM
If you are doing a study on exacta combinations, where should the cutoff point be set.
If a combination hits 10% of the time, it's an obvious one to follow and you can tell what your payoff needs to be for a profit. If it pays $20, you break even and you would need $30 for a fifty percent overlay.
What about a combo that hits 2% of the time, but always pays so well that it actually shows a profit over a thousand races? With a 2% hit rate though, you may see a zero hit rate over the next thousand races! But, it could go the other way too!
Where should the cutoff be...... 8%, 5%, 3%, 2% ?
If a combination hits 10% of the time, it's an obvious one to follow and you can tell what your payoff needs to be for a profit. If it pays $20, you break even and you would need $30 for a fifty percent overlay.
What about a combo that hits 2% of the time, but always pays so well that it actually shows a profit over a thousand races? With a 2% hit rate though, you may see a zero hit rate over the next thousand races! But, it could go the other way too!
Where should the cutoff be...... 8%, 5%, 3%, 2% ?