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View Full Version : Exacta combo hit percent


dav4463
06-26-2009, 06:37 PM
If you are doing a study on exacta combinations, where should the cutoff point be set.

If a combination hits 10% of the time, it's an obvious one to follow and you can tell what your payoff needs to be for a profit. If it pays $20, you break even and you would need $30 for a fifty percent overlay.

What about a combo that hits 2% of the time, but always pays so well that it actually shows a profit over a thousand races? With a 2% hit rate though, you may see a zero hit rate over the next thousand races! But, it could go the other way too!

Where should the cutoff be...... 8%, 5%, 3%, 2% ?

sjk
06-26-2009, 06:57 PM
I play horses on top that I give at least a 6% chance of winning over horses that I give at least 3% chance of finishing second so the lowest chance I play would be down around .2%. That would probably be one of a number of combinations played in the race.

fmolf
06-26-2009, 08:17 PM
I play horses on top that I give at least a 6% chance of winning over horses that I give at least 3% chance of finishing second so the lowest chance I play would be down around .2%. That would probably be one of a number of combinations played in the race.
excellent money can be made using one way exactas with the favorite on top
even money and higher....you can turn an even money horse into a 2/1 or 3/1 with some careful handicapping.favorites on the bottom sometimes are underlaid because lots of people box and reverse.....this is why i use barry meadows overlay exacta chart.....

Robert Fischer
06-26-2009, 10:09 PM
I like high payouts and a high hit%.

Remember, you don't have to bet. This isn't baseball where the pitcher can backdoor you with a changeup and get a called third strike(unless this is your only source of income). Shit, baseball has called strikes and Ted Williams still walked 150 times a year waiting for a fat pitch. Imagine if baseball was like horseracing with no called strikes?!
Williams would have been up there all year, until the pitcher eventually threw him a fastball down the middle,
-or beaned him :eek: