Question on Bris Prime Power

[markgoldie]

In the just-concluded first race at Arlington today, 6/26, the top Bris Prime Power number "Skirting Disaster" won and paid $18.60 to win. The margin of advantage was over 5 points. I understand this is a rarity, however...

Question: Does anyone run ROI stats on top Prime Power horses either by margin of advantage or final odds or both?

Thanks.

Mark

[fmolf]

In the just-concluded first race at Arlington today, 6/26, the top Bris Prime Power number "Skirting Disaster" won and paid $18.60 to win. The margin of advantage was over 5 points. I understand this is a rarity, however...

Question: Does anyone run ROI stats on top Prime Power horses either by margin of advantage or final odds or both?

Thanks.

Marki use bris ultimates and this particular i find to be very accurate...i am not a databaser, but more art than science :lol: but alas i do use numbers alot but i also go by feel....it is this way with this rating. I have a good feel when it is on target, or out of whack. Kind of like a false favorite but the top prime by 3 or more does win about 40% at belmont and monmouth.The two tracks I am currently playing.

[markgoldie]

Hey fmolf:

A 40% win rate should give you a positive ROI. No?

Mark

[cj]

Hey fmolf:

A 40% win rate should give you a positive ROI. No?

Mark

Not if the average odds are 3 to 2 or less.

[bettheoverlay]

Of the last approx 2k Prime Power 5+ advantage horses I have, wins were 759/2059 37%W .85 ROI. There were only 20 horses with this parameter going off at 8/1 or better. None won.

[markgoldie]

Of the last approx 2k Prime Power 5+ advantage horses I have, wins were 759/2059 37%W .85 ROI. There were only 20 horses with this parameter going off at 8/1 or better. None won.
Thanks, Overlay. I guess 1 for 21 is not enough. Thought it was a rarity and it is at less than 1 % occurrance.

[fmolf]

Thanks, Overlay. I guess 1 for 21 is not enough. Thought it was a rarity and it is at less than 1 % occurrance.
with a little selectivity and knowledge of what a false favorite looks like it is a profitable albeit only slightly way to play....most solid favorites are usually odds on especially if ranked first in bris clas also which most of the solid fav's are!

[lansdale]

In the just-concluded first race at Arlington today, 6/26, the top Bris Prime Power number "Skirting Disaster" won and paid $18.60 to win. The margin of advantage was over 5 points. I understand this is a rarity, however...

Question: Does anyone run ROI stats on top Prime Power horses either by margin of advantage or final odds or both?

Thanks.

Mark

Mark,

I believe Jeff Platt, who uses the Bris figures in his research, mentioned that Bris Prime Power, at whatever level of advantage, basically loses the track take - similar to the .85 figure noted by bettheoverlay. Maybe Jeff can confirm or comment if he has time.

Cheers,

lansdale

[cj]

Mark,

I believe Jeff Platt, who uses the Bris figures in his research, mentioned that Bris Prime Power, at whatever level of advantage, basically loses the track take - similar to the .85 figure noted by bettheoverlay. Maybe Jeff can confirm or comment if he has time.

Cheers,

lansdale

Just a note, people often compare how a certain statistic does relative to track takeout. In fact, betting every horse equally will lose significantly more than the track takeout.

[Tom]

Does BRIS offer any statistics on it's PP rating?
I would think that if were worth looking at, they would be promoting it.

[dutchboy]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=primepower

[bettheoverlay]

For those wishing to pursue 5+ advantage PP horses, and have the patience to be a toteboard watcher - when these horses are the second choice in the wagering it dramatically increases the ROI possibilities.

[fmolf]

For those wishing to pursue 5+ advantage PP horses, and have the patience to be a toteboard watcher - when these horses are the second choice in the wagering it dramatically increases the ROI possibilities.
they advertise that if the favorite is not the prime power top horse it wins less than its fair share i believe a smidgoen less than 30%

[InFront]

In the just-concluded first race at Arlington today, 6/26, the top Bris Prime Power number "Skirting Disaster" won and paid $18.60 to win. The margin of advantage was over 5 points. I understand this is a rarity, however...

Question: Does anyone run ROI stats on top Prime Power horses either by margin of advantage or final odds or both?

Thanks.

Mark

I have sliced and diced the Power ratings through large databases in every way imaginable and never seen any great value. Such as by ranks, gaps, mlo, post odds, track, distance, class, etc. and nothing with any decent amount of plays came back profitable. Since they are formulated from many racing factors the public is in very tune with these factors. So that horse that won with such a gap and at that price was a rarity overall. I wish it were that simple.

On that note I'm not saying Power ratings are useless but they must be incorporated with other handicapping factors to may have some value to them.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have not ever used the Prime Power rating. However, I have used many other "high-level" numbers (i.e. factors made up of many other factors).

My experience has been that any main stream number - anything that is readily available - has almost no chance of producing profit.

The real bad news is that even a high-level number that is not readily avaialbe is generally not much for producing profit unless its "building blocks" (i.e. the factors that make it up) are also not readily available.


I know it doesn't add much to this thread but it might get people to understand why even relatively exclusive numbers have limited value.

The weighting is the key, of course.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[fmolf]

I have sliced and diced the Power ratings through large databases in every way imaginable and never seen any great value. Such as by ranks, gaps, mlo, post odds, track, distance, class, etc. and nothing with any decent amount of plays came back profitable. Since they are formulated from many racing factors the public is in very tune with these factors. So that horse that won with such a gap and at that price was a rarity overall. I wish it were that simple.

On that note I'm not saying Power ratings are useless but they must be incorporated with other handicapping factors to may have some value to them.i am not a computer guy and do not have any databases i was wondering if you knew a range of how many points from the top prime most winners come from ....say within 8 pts or within 5 pts....

[InFront]

I'm not sure what you mean by "most" winners but would say horses that are NOT within 20 points of the top horse have very bad rois in worse than .50 range. But also that is were the big longshots come from since their average payoff is over $22.

[fmolf]

I'm not sure what you mean by "most" winners but would say horses that are NOT within 20 points of the top horse have very bad rois in worse than .50 range. But also that is were the big longshots come from since their average payoff is over $22.
you think barring any other positive factors that 20 points is a good number to use for elimination purposes?

[coach_lowe]

One of the more powerful angles that I use with Prime Power involves identifying a bad favorite who is also at the top of the ratings. I then use the second rated horse as my starting point if it's a legitimate contender.

If you encounter a race with very few questions regarding recent form, etc.... Prime Power can be very useful.

[nalley0710]

I use the prime power rating as a good quick and dirty gauge to see how the horse relates to others in terms of traditional handicapping principles (i.e. How the public will likely bet). They are a good way to stalk the crowd and look for a vulnerability. They can be a very valuable tool for quickly ranking a field when doing research on nontraditional methods.

[InFront]

:cool: you think barring any other positive factors that 20 points is a good number to use for elimination purposes?

Yes I think any group of horses that can produce even worse than a .55 roi is a good eliminator. But when testing any "eliminator group" you also want one that eliminates a lot of horses as well such as at least 20%+ of all horses that run.

[fmolf]

:cool:

Yes I think any group of horses that can produce even worse than a .55 roi is a good eliminator. But when testing any "eliminator group" you also want one that eliminates a lot of horses as well such as at least 20%+ of all horses that run.
i agree sometimes in some smaller field races the numbr needs to be smaller or just do not use it at all..another angle i like to look for is a horse 3rd or 4th or lower with a reasonably close to the top prime number who is tops on current class..sometimes this will pop at a price!