View Full Version : Question on Speed Figs
markgoldie
06-25-2009, 04:44 PM
I've been using Bris figs for quite some time, but recently it seems to me that the final odds line is being made with something stronger. This has been a trend for some time now but it is becoming more and more apparent with each passing month.
I know there are "whale" syndicates out there that are paying for figs that are probably custom made. Assuming these things would not be available, does anyone out there have first hand knowledge of figs that can be purchased which in your opinion are significantly stronger than Bris or Beyer figs. Obviously the "Sheets" and Thorograph guys believe their figs are stronger and maybe they are. But these have been on the market for years and the effect I'm talking about is much more recent. So I'm pretty sure what I'm seeing is not a result of the use of those numbers.
Or is what's going on now simply a result of the whale effect and there's nothing which can be done about it? I guess Dave Schwartz might be the go-to guy on this question, but I know we have other dedicated numbers guys here as well.
Mark
raybo
06-25-2009, 05:35 PM
I've been using Bris figs for quite some time, but recently it seems to me that the final odds line is being made with something stronger. This has been a trend for some time now but it is becoming more and more apparent with each passing month.
I know there are "whale" syndicates out there that are paying for figs that are probably custom made. Assuming these things would not be available, does anyone out there have first hand knowledge of figs that can be purchased which in your opinion are significantly stronger than Bris or Beyer figs. Obviously the "Sheets" and Thorograph guys believe their figs are stronger and maybe they are. But these have been on the market for years and the effect I'm talking about is much more recent. So I'm pretty sure what I'm seeing is not a result of the use of those numbers.
Or is what's going on now simply a result of the whale effect and there's nothing which can be done about it? I guess Dave Schwartz might be the go-to guy on this question, but I know we have other dedicated numbers guys here as well.
Mark
I believe you'll find that the consensus on this forum, concerning pace and speed figures, is that CJ makes the best ones. I don't know if he's taking new members, however.
Warren Henry
06-25-2009, 08:13 PM
I believe you'll find that the consensus on this forum, concerning pace and speed figures, is that CJ makes the best ones. I don't know if he's taking new members, however.
The man who was my most influential mentor in horse betting taught me something about figures that I think is more important than whose are best.
He said that ANY reasonably accurate figure that was not widely used would outperform a much better figure which was widely used. I thought he was nuts, but it wasn't until after a season long contest that I realized the truth of his statement.
He was the grizzled old handicapper, and I was the fresh young hard charger who knew a little about handicapping and a lot about computers. Using his expertise, we had developed some profitable software that relied heavily on speed figures. For the test, I used straight DRF Speed plus Track Variant. He used the same figures, but did a simple adjustment based on weight on or weight off.
It was an interesting season full of back and forth joshing when one of us would have a winner that the other didn't have. Quite often we agreed on the top figure horse. But there were enough differences to make it interesting.
At the end of the season, we had almost exactly the same winning percentage for our top picks. HOWEVER, his picks had a MUCH better ROI. His figures weren't necessarily more accurate than mine, but they were exclusive.
fmolf
06-25-2009, 10:34 PM
The man who was my most influential mentor in horse betting taught me something about figures that I think is more important than whose are best.
He said that ANY reasonably accurate figure that was not widely used would outperform a much better figure which was widely used. I thought he was nuts, but it wasn't until after a season long contest that I realized the truth of his statement.
He was the grizzled old handicapper, and I was the fresh young hard charger who knew a little about handicapping and a lot about computers. Using his expertise, we had developed some profitable software that relied heavily on speed figures. For the test, I used straight DRF Speed plus Track Variant. He used the same figures, but did a simple adjustment based on weight on or weight off.
It was an interesting season full of back and forth joshing when one of us would have a winner that the other didn't have. Quite often we agreed on the top figure horse. But there were enough differences to make it interesting.
At the end of the season, we had almost exactly the same winning percentage for our top picks. HOWEVER, his picks had a MUCH better ROI. His figures weren't necessarily more accurate than mine, but they were exclusive.
personally i do not believe their is much difference in any of the commercial speed figures out there.I believe it all lies with the interpretation of them.the study of them as they relate to the race results.
Warren Henry
06-25-2009, 11:24 PM
personally i do not believe their is much difference in any of the commercial speed figures out there.I believe it all lies with the interpretation of them.the study of them as they relate to the race results.
Personally, I use speed numbers as just another way to measure class. Fine tuning them to the Nth degree doesn't do me much more good than doing minute adjustments to purse-class numbers. I use all of the numbers to attempt to judge "does the horse belong here"
fmolf
06-25-2009, 11:51 PM
Personally, I use speed numbers as just another way to measure class. Fine tuning them to the Nth degree doesn't do me much more good than doing minute adjustments to purse-class numbers. I use all of the numbers to attempt to judge "does the horse belong here"
i use them like you as well, but i think i put more weight in them as far as determining thefastest horse in the race.Speed figs are all we have,except for raw times.
proximity
06-26-2009, 07:59 AM
does anyone out there have first hand knowledge of figs that can be purchased which in your opinion are significantly stronger than Bris or Beyer figs....
first off, the beyer figures are significantly stronger than the bris figures..... especially track to track. sometimes within a track i do feel that the beyers can be overly reliant upon long term par time data and static relationships between distances.
are there stronger figures out there than the beyers?
to this question i would definitely say yes, but as to whether such numbers are significantly stronger than the beyers.... i would lean towards answering no.
in my own play i came to a point where i felt the computerized figures were costing me multiple bets per week (false overlays)..... i'm not saying that a player can't win with these numbers, but i just found myself growing increasingly uncomfortable with them..... so i switched over to john del riccio's henry kuck ratings. and when john stopped producing the kuck ratings, i started using the cj's.
right now i'm trying to switch over to the moss figures (which just started up for one of my main tracks- ct). i feel there is a small drop in quality from the cj's to moss, but i can get the moss numbers to print out right on my drf pps and there is also a 1/2 mile rating for route races which i like.
sorry for the long post.....:)
Cratos
06-26-2009, 09:44 AM
I've been using Bris figs for quite some time, but recently it seems to me that the final odds line is being made with something stronger. This has been a trend for some time now but it is becoming more and more apparent with each passing month.
I know there are "whale" syndicates out there that are paying for figs that are probably custom made. Assuming these things would not be available, does anyone out there have first hand knowledge of figs that can be purchased which in your opinion are significantly stronger than Bris or Beyer figs. Obviously the "Sheets" and Thorograph guys believe their figs are stronger and maybe they are. But these have been on the market for years and the effect I'm talking about is much more recent. So I'm pretty sure what I'm seeing is not a result of the use of those numbers.
Or is what's going on now simply a result of the whale effect and there's nothing which can be done about it? I guess Dave Schwartz might be the go-to guy on this question, but I know we have other dedicated numbers guys here as well.
Mark
I would like to re-phase your topic to read “Question on the science and statistics of Speed Figs development and use” because until that discussion is made it is all “smoke and mirrors.”
I would like to re-phase your topic to read “Question on the science and statistics of Speed Figs development and use” because until that discussion is made it is all “smoke and mirrors.”
Of your 700+ posts, haven't about 100 of them said exactly this in one form or another?
Cratos
06-26-2009, 04:04 PM
Of your 700+ posts, haven't about 100 of them said exactly this in one form or another?
What learned from MIT that redundancy can be emphatic and very educational, but I suppose you spurious comments are more relevant?
If you want to start that thread, do it, otherwise you comments are just as spurious.
I honestly don't really understand you last post. It reads poorly.
Cratos
06-26-2009, 04:27 PM
If you want to start that thread, do it, otherwise you comments are just as spurious.
I honestly don't really understand you last post. It reads poorly.
Sorry, but I just can't help it, I just don't write well enough and maybe I need a remedial writing course?.
Sorry, but I just can't help it, I just don't write well enough and maybe I need a remedial writing course?.
No idea, maybe I need a reading course. Why not start the thread you are so anxious to discuss?
nobeyerspls
06-28-2009, 10:42 AM
I have nothing worthwhile to add to this thread and demand extra credit for knowing that.
fmolf
06-28-2009, 10:51 AM
I have nothing worthwhile to add to this thread and demand extra credit for knowing that.
awesome :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
speed figures are only a measurement of how fast a horse ran in relationship to something that has already taken place.They are not a measurement of how fast a horse will run today.
phatbastard
06-28-2009, 11:04 AM
amen
cj's dad
06-28-2009, 11:14 AM
awesome :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
speed figures are only a measurement of how fast a horse ran in relationship to something that has already taken place.They are not a measurement of how fast a horse will run today.
Brilliant !!
So, by your logic a baseball player batting .325 is not more likely to get a hit then a player hitting .210 ??
Hey, I have an idea. Why don't you project today's speed figures at Belmont and we can win every race, assuming that they are accurate.
You can't beat CJ'S figures.
I know guys that used all the others and tell me it is so and are willing to get on CJ’S waiting list.
I hit several races a day at Suffolk Downs just betting CJ’S underlined horses, by underlined I mean on the condensed pp's speed points, PF, LP, that go off at good odds. I also look at the pace- pace numbers.
The only problem is I told everybody and now the prices stink.
cj's dad
06-28-2009, 05:36 PM
You can't beat CJ'S figures.
I know guys that used all the others and tell me it is so and are willing to get on CJ’S waiting list.
I hit several races a day at Suffolk Downs just betting CJ’S underlined horses, by underlined I mean on the condensed pp's speed points, PF, LP, that go off at good odds. I also look at the pace- pace numbers.
The only problem is I told everybody and now the prices stink.
Shhhhhh !!!!
fmolf
06-28-2009, 05:51 PM
Brilliant !!
So, by your logic a baseball player batting .325 is not more likely to get a hit then a player hitting .210 ??
Hey, I have an idea. Why don't you project today's speed figures at Belmont and we can win every race, assuming that they are accurate.
a speed figure from last weeks race can only tell me how fast a horse ran in his last race under certain conditions...that is fact...batting average tells me how a hitter has performed in all his at bats ....but not how he will perform against todays pitcher in todays game.to put it in perspective yes i would rather bet on a horse who has run faster in the past and have a higher average hitter up in a clutch spot....but neither statistic istelling me anything concrete about what will happen today...they are only educated guesses
As are ALL handicapping factors. A guess at today's results.
Some guesses area better than others.
Same speed figures are interpreted differently by many people.
fmolf
06-28-2009, 08:03 PM
As are ALL handicapping factors. A guess at today's results.
Some guesses area better than others.
Same speed figures are interpreted differently by many people.
some people think figures are the be all and end all ...it is all a matter of handicapping preference.....all the different methods work...for me all the speed figs are relatively the same...i only use them as one part of my handicapping process
some people think figures are the be all and end all ...it is all a matter of handicapping preference.....all the different methods work...for me all the speed figs are relatively the same...i only use them as one part of my handicapping process
People say that a lot, but I don't really know any supposed "figure" handicappers that actually believe that. Maybe a few Sheets and TG guys, but I don't know any of them, just read the board now and then.
fmolf
06-29-2009, 08:14 AM
People say that a lot, but I don't really know any supposed "figure" handicappers that actually believe that. Maybe a few Sheets and TG guys, but I don't know any of them, just read the board now and then.
i am not knocking anybodys method just making an observation.Different methods put more weight on the figs whichever ones you use.This is totally a matter of preference.I am certainly not trying to discredit anyone who puts a lot of faith in them.I use them just not to the extent that some others do.I have my own methods of trying to predict how a horse will run today.Speed/pace figures are only a part of my process.Everyone says your figures are excellent so i will not dispute that I commend you for it.The way i use speed /pace figs I am quite happy with what is provided in the bris ultimate pp's
proximity
06-29-2009, 07:37 PM
i am not knocking anybodys method just making an observation.
i dunno? you sure you aren't one of those posters with personal vendettas against andy beyer?:D ....... which,btw, always seems to make speed ratings and variants completely irrelevant!! :rolleyes:
fmolf
06-29-2009, 09:08 PM
i dunno? you sure you aren't one of those posters with personal vendettas against andy beyer?:D ....... which,btw, always seems to make speed ratings and variants completely irrelevant!! :rolleyes:
damn I've been uncovered! :lol:
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