Favorites Winning More?

[LemonDropKid]

Here are the percentage of winning favorites from the current BRIS at a glance. Sure is making it tougher to find an overlay. Only 5 tracks out of 20 with 33% or less winning favorites.

Arlington 33%
Belmont 35%
Calder 41%
Charles Town 41%
Churchill 35%
Colonial 33%
Delaware 41%
Emerald 36%
Evangeline 35%
Hollywood 33%
Lone Star 44%
Monmouth 39%
Mountaineer 37%
Penn National 32%
Phila Park 36%
Prarie Meadows 42%
River Downs 42%
Suffolk Downs 47%
Thistledown 42%
Woodbine 32%

The Kid

[redeye007]

I've noticed at several of the larger tracks several of the entrants have almost identical odds. I've seen 5 runners all at 5-1 in a field of 10. I'm wondering if groups of professional dutchers are keeping the odds down.

[fmolf]

I've noticed at several of the larger tracks several of the entrants have almost identical odds. I've seen 5 runners all at 5-1 in a field of 10. I'm wondering if groups of professional dutchers are keeping the odds down.
i think it s a product of their being less horses and more races the discrepency in talent is now more apparent than ever.shrewd trainers now have softer spots to place their horses in.

[cmoore]

Here are the percentage of winning favorites from the current BRIS at a glance. Sure is making it tougher to find an overlay. Only 5 tracks out of 20 with 33% or less winning favorites.

Arlington 33%
Belmont 35%
Calder 41%
Charles Town 41%
Churchill 35%
Colonial 33%
Delaware 41%
Emerald 36%
Evangeline 35%
Hollywood 33%
Lone Star 44%
Monmouth 39%
Mountaineer 37%
Penn National 32%
Phila Park 36%
Prarie Meadows 42%
River Downs 42%
Suffolk Downs 47%
Thistledown 42%
Woodbine 32%

The Kid

It seems like a chalkfest for some time now..It's getting old. Throw in the 2nd choice and many of those tracks are probably over 60%. When you see Evangeline at 35% with the biggest fields in racing..You know something isn't right..Could it be these tracks want the favorites to win so they get a higher rate of churn. More the winnings are spread out..More likely they will be bet back through the windows..Which means more take for the track. Just an idea..Maybe I'm way off..

[CincyHorseplayer]

Bottomline is that if you don't know to make money when favorites win,you are just handicapping yourself waiting for bombs IMO.And looking at those numbers I guess that statement is even truer now.Jeez!!

[fmolf]

Bottomline is that if you don't know to make money when favorites win,you are just handicapping yourself waiting for bombs IMO.And looking at those numbers I guess that statement is even truer now.Jeez!!
you and i both know how to make money with first and second choices on top and a horse with a dissimilar running style beneath...or my favorite exacta play two quality speed horses in form(if they are the only two speeds in the race)just box em up....

[Space Monkey]

Could it be these tracks want the favorites to win so they get a higher rate of churn. More the winnings are spread out..More likely they will be bet back through the windows..Which means more take for the track. Just an idea..Maybe I'm way off..

Cmoore, I enjoy reading your posts and agree with you a lot of the time, but I think your conspiracy theory is way off. If you're right in saying that track management has that much of a say in the outcome of the races, then we should all quit right now.

I think its more a sign of the times. I'll venture to say that these stats show that the game is as honest as its ever been. There's much less "setting a horse up for a price" as there was decades ago. I think, from a small track point of view, that the economy is playing a major factor. Trainers, owners need the cash to keep their operations going. They can't afford to pull back a horse anymore.

[CincyHorseplayer]

you and i both know how to make money with first and second choices on top and a horse with a dissimilar running style beneath...or my favorite exacta play two quality speed horses in form(if they are the only two speeds in the race)just box em up....

Looking at the last 10 favorites I've bet on Fmolf.I have had 4 exactas with my top contender/top combination,have cashed 4 other $1 tickets,and had 2 busts.

[Space Monkey]

Cincy, what did they pay?

[Skanoochies]

Interesting stats.

The lowest are Arl. Holly. Wood. Col. and Penn.

Three artificial tracks, Col. mostly turf races, and well, Penn.

Bring back the dirt! :lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cincy, what did they pay?

When I play single contender exactas with a favorite I like,I always play them $10 on top and $4 on the bottom with 1,2,or 3 other contenders at $1 box($18 avg) or $180 invested.

The $10 exactas I had paid 19.20,26.00,17.20,12.00 for a total of 372.00.

The $1 tickets I had paid 7.50,4.50,24.10,15.80 for a total of 51.90.The favorite finished 2nd in 2 of these.

$423.90 total return to 180.00 bet.243.90 net.

I'm on a run with favorites in Ohio though.I usually hit around 3 of these bets with the top combo and cash 3 other tickets.Since 2001 the horse I like win place at about 30/60% which is why I play exactas more than being a win bettor.But my percentages are obviously less in a bad run but it's a solid pet play.

[Space Monkey]

Ok, help me out here. Don't misunderstand me, I'm not trying to knock you down. You made a nice profit, but if my math is right, you got back 5-2 on your $180 investment. Thats from hitting 80% of the races bet?? If I'm right, thats not going to work over the long haul. You see, I try my best not to play chalk exactas. I don't think the payoffs, versus the probability of cashing, justifies it.

[cmoore]

Could it be these tracks want the favorites to win so they get a higher rate of churn. More the winnings are spread out..More likely they will be bet back through the windows..Which means more take for the track. Just an idea..Maybe I'm way off..

Cmoore, I enjoy reading your posts and agree with you a lot of the time, but I think your conspiracy theory is way off. If you're right in saying that track management has that much of a say in the outcome of the races, then we should all quit right now.

I think its more a sign of the times. I'll venture to say that these stats show that the game is as honest as its ever been. There's much less "setting a horse up for a price" as there was decades ago. I think, from a small track point of view, that the economy is playing a major factor. Trainers, owners need the cash to keep their operations going. They can't afford to pull back a horse anymore.

I don't mean the races are fixed in any way..Here are the responsibilities of a racing secretary. The one in bold will pop right out at you.
MAIN RESPONSIBILITIES:
•

Confers with track management personnel to plan types of races to schedule and to
determine purse for each race;
•

Assist in setting conditions for each race of the race meeting, regulating the
nomination of entries and determining the amounts of purses and to whom they are
due;
•

Familiarize with the age, class, sex and competitive ability of all horses racing at the
meeting;
•

Classify horses in accordance with these rules and list horses in the categories in which
they qualify;
•

Examine all entry declarations to verify information set forth therein and provide the
listing of the horses for the daily program;
•

Analyzes official papers and past performance records to arrange races between horses
of equal experience and ability; :lol:
•

To maximize the field of each race, handicaps horses using knowledge of handicapping
based on data, such as age, sex, total winnings of horse, and races won;

Maybe the goal of each racing secretary is to write racing conditions that lean towards favorites..Maybe this is all done by computer now. Higher the favorites, higher the churn. Racing secretary then looks like a genius. When have you ever seen so many tracks with such a high favorite winning percentage??

[CincyHorseplayer]

Ok, help me out here. Don't misunderstand me, I'm not trying to knock you down. You made a nice profit, but if my math is right, you got back 5-2 on your $180 investment. Thats from hitting 80% of the races bet?? If I'm right, thats not going to work over the long haul. You see, I try my best not to play chalk exactas. I don't think the payoffs, versus the probability of cashing, justifies it.

Even if I never hit the top combinations I'm still going to cut my losses in half because this is a high cash percentage type of play.

I hit 4 of 10 top combinations(40%) which is fairly common for betting favorites in the 1-1 to 6/5 range with the average payoff being $93 on those 4.With an average payoff of $5 to win and a $45 payoff on an $18 win bet I've essentially turned these favorites into 4-1 shots.

So what I have is a 136% ROI on 10 bets of $18.If I get none of the top combos or my favorite finishes 2nd I cut losses ordinarily in the 40-60% range because the cash % on these bets is so high.Two opportunities that would not exist if I bet to win because of ROI %,cash %,and finish position.

[cmoore]

Seriously..I bet a track knows it's exact takeout difference when the favorites win at a 27% clip over any stretch compared to when they win at 38%. They probably have this down to a science now..We just need to start taking advantage of it. I can't count the times my 10-1 to 40-1 has come in 2nd, 3rd and 4th. It's getting old..Maybe I need to change my ways.

[fmolf]

Even if I never hit the top combinations I'm still going to cut my losses in half because this is a high cash percentage type of play.

I hit 4 of 10 top combinations(40%) which is fairly common for betting favorites in the 1-1 to 6/5 range with the average payoff being $93 on those 4.With an average payoff of $5 to win and a $45 payoff on an $18 win bet I've essentially turned these favorites into 4-1 shots.

So what I have is a 136% ROI on 10 bets of $18.If I get none of the top combos or my favorite finishes 2nd I cut losses ordinarily in the 40-60% range because the cash % on these bets is so high.Two opportunities that would not exist if I bet to win because of ROI %,cash %,and finish position.
i play exactas in a very similar fashion as you know and also make large prime bets in the win pools...lots of times i have the shaky favorite in the second slot also....i prefer these strategies rather than the trend towards the exotic exotics.

[Space Monkey]

I've never seen it this high cmoore. I've said for awhile now that writing "conditional claiming races" has harmed the game. More favorites and its one of the reasons why its becoming almost impossible to attract new handicappers. An intelligent newbie wants to know the conditions of a race. That explanation b4 you even start to explain a PP line scares most of them off. OC races too. Now they have these $65,000 PHONY Stakes races. They used to be overnight handicaps and if you had a standout you carried a lot more weight. But the trainers boycotted them. The basic structure of a daily racing card has been transformed from competitive racing into a trainer friendly favorite fest.

If I'm being disciplined, I usually only bet 3 or 4 races a card. On a good day.

[fmolf]

I've never seen it this high cmoore. I've said for awhile now that writing "conditional claiming races" has harmed the game. More favorites and its one of the reasons why its becoming almost impossible to attract new handicappers. An intelligent newbie wants to know the conditions of a race. That explanation b4 you even start to explain a PP line scares most of them off. OC races too. Now they have these $65,000 PHONY Stakes races. They used to be overnight handicaps and if you had a standout you carried a lot more weight. But the trainers boycotted them. The basic structure of a daily racing card has been transformed from competitive racing into a trainer friendly favorite fest.

If I'm being disciplined, I usually only bet 3 or 4 races a card. On a good day.
same here and i think that i am betting more maiden and maiden claimers than i ever have.this is where i have been finding value lately.

[Space Monkey]

:lol: Me too on the maiden thing!! My favorite is MCL 3,4,5 yr olds on the dirt. I stay away from baby races or races with multiple FTS. Turf races with many who have never run on it are also throwouts.

[fmolf]

Seriously..I bet a track knows it's exact takeout difference when the favorites win at a 27% clip over any stretch compared to when they win at 38%. They probably have this down to a science now..We just need to start taking advantage of it. I can't count the times my 10-1 to 40-1 has come in 2nd, 3rd and 4th. It's getting old..Maybe I need to change my ways.
what happens with all these low priced favorites is mor money is bet into the exotic pools trying to extract some value from the race.these pools have a higher takeout.....james quinn i think said..you know your good when you can make money off the low priced favorites....when i have a solid favorite in a race and i can hook him up with one or two horses paying overlaid prices in the exacta i make the play....i use the barry meadows overlay exacta chart

[Dave Schwartz]

If you want MY take on this phenomenon, you could watch this 22-minute video introduction to a set of seminar videos I am building.

http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/Videos/Promos/K2M.exe

This is a Camtasia file inside its own player. Just download the entire video and "open" it to watch.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[cmoore]

what happens with all these low priced favorites is mor money is bet into the exotic pools trying to extract some value from the race.these pools have a higher takeout.....james quinn i think said..you know your good when you can make money off the low priced favorites....when i have a solid favorite in a race and i can hook him up with one or two horses paying overlaid prices in the exacta i make the play....i use the barry meadows overlay exacta chart

I've been doing that lately also..I refuse to play the single digit exactas..Find where the favorite with a 8-1 all the way up to 30-1 is an overlay and make the bet.

[Robert Goren]

Shorter fields and better information are the main reasons. The whales with their complex computer programs can spot a horse who would have been a false favorite and bet enough money on the real likely winner to turn it into the betting favorite. I see late money move the second or third betting choice at the 1 MTP in to favorite at least once every day.

[fmolf]

Shorter fields and better information are the main reasons. The whales with their complex computer programs can spot a horse who would have been a false favorite and bet enough money on the real likely winner to turn it into the betting favorite. I see late money move the second or third betting choice at the 1 MTP in to favorite at least once every day.
very true and also very aggravating when i have that same horse at 5/2 and going around the first turn he becomes 7/5!

[CBedo]

If you want MY take on this phenomenon, you could watch this 22-minute video introduction to a set of seminar videos I am building.

http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/Videos/Promos/K2M.exe

This is a Camtasia file inside its own player. Just download the entire video and "open" it to watch.


Regards,
Dave SchwartzDave, two questions:

1) Where do the numbers you cite for the top 5 & the top 25 come from?

2) Is the intro music you use in the video what you play on your ipod? :lol:

[fmolf]

I've been doing that lately also..I refuse to play the single digit exactas..Find where the favorite with a 8-1 all the way up to 30-1 is an overlay and make the bet.
its a good way to play when a solid well bet favorite is in the race....i use the pace profile a lot to fill in my second place horse then bet two sometimes three overlaid one way exactas.i never play single digit payoffs either..i use meadows chart for determining overlaid exacta payoffs

[Edward DeVere]

Ok, help me out here. Don't misunderstand me, I'm not trying to knock you down. You made a nice profit, but if my math is right, you got back 5-2 on your $180 investment. Thats from hitting 80% of the races bet?? If I'm right, thats not going to work over the long haul. You see, I try my best not to play chalk exactas. I don't think the payoffs, versus the probability of cashing, justifies it.

Actually, he got back only about 7-5 on his $180 invested.

But that's phenomenal! Now, you're correct that he's not likely to continue hitting 80% of that race subset. But he doesn't need to - a 1-5 return on the investment would mean that he would get back $2.50 (average payoff of a 1-5 shot with dime breakage) for every $2.00 wagered.

Where I come from, that's 25% profit.

[Dave Schwartz]

CBedo,

I can disclose neither of those answers. (Okay... no, the intro music was some free stuff I downloaded.)

However, #1 is relatively well-known among the whales and would-be whales.

It is a small world out there.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[CBedo]

Thanks.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Actually, he got back only about 7-5 on his $180 invested.

But that's phenomenal! Now, you're correct that he's not likely to continue hitting 80% of that race subset. But he doesn't need to - a 1-5 return on the investment would mean that he would get back $2.50 (average payoff of a 1-5 shot with dime breakage) for every $2.00 wagered.

Where I come from, that's 25% profit.

My return was 423.90 on 180.00 bet.That's 136% ROI.25% profit would be 45.00 net.I netted 243.90

Let's take the same payoff average of $93 and say all the $1 tickets averaged the cost of a bet($18),which is usually easily the case,very often more.

If the hit rate drops to 30% and the cash rate to 60%($279 + $54=$333),that still a profit of 85%.

If the hit rate drops to 20% and cash rate to 50%($186 + $54=$240),it's a 33% profit.

If you have no big hits but the cash rate remains at 50%,which it often does with this bet,you have a 50% loss.

That a horse can win or place in this bet makes long losing streaks a rarity.I have had profitable weeks simply off place outcomes.Win bettors will never experience this luxury.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Predictable races occur more in good weather, at smaller tracks, and where pools are smaller, faster tracks, cheaper races, smaller fields, on turf, in sprints. Means less contenders in each race.

[BeatTheChalk]

Could it be these tracks want the favorites to win so they get a higher rate of churn. More the winnings are spread out..More likely they will be bet back through the windows..Which means more take for the track. Just an idea..Maybe I'm way off..

Cmoore, I enjoy reading your posts and agree with you a lot of the time, but I think your conspiracy theory is way off. If you're right in saying that track management has that much of a say in the outcome of the races, then we should all quit right now.

I think its more a sign of the times. I'll venture to say that these stats show that the game is as honest as its ever been. There's much less "setting a horse up for a price" as there was decades ago. I think, from a small track point of view, that the economy is playing a major factor. Trainers, owners need the cash to keep their operations going. They can't afford to pull back a horse anymore.

I said ...months ago ..that I thought the tracks are setting up races ..
where the Favorites look like the real deal. It only makes sense to me.
Playback is automatic found money. Period. IMHO of course. I have
erected a fence to protect me from the CRITICS. ##############
:lol: :eek: :( :blush: :cool:

[cmoore]

Here are the percentage of winning favorites from the current BRIS at a glance. Sure is making it tougher to find an overlay. Only 5 tracks out of 20 with 33% or less winning favorites.

Arlington 33%
Belmont 35%
Calder 41%
Charles Town 41%
Churchill 35%
Colonial 33%
Delaware 41%
Emerald 36%
Evangeline 35%
Hollywood 33%
Lone Star 44%
Monmouth 39%
Mountaineer 37%
Penn National 32%
Phila Park 36%
Prarie Meadows 42%
River Downs 42%
Suffolk Downs 47%
Thistledown 42%
Woodbine 32%

The Kid
.......................Thru 06/28
Arlington 33%..........32% Down
Belmont 35%...........36% UP
Calder 41%.............42% UP
Charles Town 41%....40% Down
Churchill 35%...........35%
Colonial 33%............34% UP
Delaware 41%..........42% UP
Emerald 36%............36%
Evangeline 35%........34% Down
Hollywood 33%.........33%
Lone Star 44%..........44%
Monmouth 39%.........39%
Mountaineer 37%......37%
Penn National 32%.....32%
Phila Park 36%..........36%
Prarie Meadows 42%..41% Down
River Downs 42%.......44% Up
Suffolk Downs 47%....48% UP
Thistledown 42%.......41% Down
Woodbine 32%..........32%

Favorites winning percentages have gone up even more since the last time LemonDropKid posted..Suffolk is at 48%..:D Eight tracks are => 40%. :D:D
All tracks combined average 37.9%.

[pandy]

It seems like a chalkfest for some time now..It's getting old. Throw in the 2nd choice and many of those tracks are probably over 60%. When you see Evangeline at 35% with the biggest fields in racing..You know something isn't right..Could it be these tracks want the favorites to win so they get a higher rate of churn. More the winnings are spread out..More likely they will be bet back through the windows..Which means more take for the track. Just an idea..Maybe I'm way off..

It's just the opposite, any track that has a Pick 6, the racing secretary is trying to make the races are hard to predict as possible. They have admitted this in So. California.

[Bruddah]

It's just the opposite, any track that has a Pick 6, the racing secretary is trying to make the races are hard to predict as possible. They have admitted this in So. California.

Obviously, the Racing Secretaries are doing a good job of being unpredictable at the So. Cal tracks. Short fields and unpredictability makes for big Pick 6's. All this time, I thought they were just bad handicappers in La La Land.

Personally, I spread my tickets vertically. I never got into the horizontal gimmicks.

[John]

Most Favorites at Suffolk Downs pay less than $4.00. If you play all favorites and hit 45%. you still lose money. It amazes me who can make a claiming $4000 non-winner of two races life time 3/5.

[jcrabboy]

Many of you may already do this, but due to the favorite situation I now use the TSN free instant program as a filter. I go thru all tracks offered by my adw for the day and Identify races that meet my field size and conditions criteria.

I am very rigid about races I will play. This saves me a lot of time and money as I only purchase cards that have passed the program filter.

I am essentially a longshot and exacta guy. This strategy helps to keep me out of the weeds.

Jimmie

[fmolf]

Many of you may already do this, but due to the favorite situation I now use the TSN free instant program as a filter. I go thru all tracks offered by my adw for the day and Identify races that meet my field size and conditions criteria.

I am very rigid about races I will play. This saves me a lot of time and money as I only purchase cards that have passed the program filter.

I am essentially a longshot and exacta guy. This strategy helps to keep me out of the weeds.

JimmieI only follow two tracks and and play win and exacta only. There are times when i will not play a solid favorite in the win pool,but use him in one way exactas with logical horses underneath, if they are paying better than fair odds .

[InFront]

You would think with all this new technology that came out over the past two decades such as computer software, new class/speed ratings, racing sheets, figures, products, Internet, etc. that favorites these days would win at even a higher rate? From what I read decades ago favorites won at a 33% clip and over the last 2 years based at all U.S. tracks they won at only a 34.8% clip. Less than a 2% raise from decades ago. So I guess all this new technology doesn't effect favorites winning at much higher rate and doesn't even effect average payoffs of all winners which are still under $13.

[Dave Schwartz]

I do about the same thing every day.

I have the software eliminate races at shorter than 4.5f, more than 2 FTS and races that are not at the tracks I am interested in. That leaves me about 85 races on a typical wednesday.


Dave

[FormalGold1]

Dave,

Your promo K2M download was very eye-opening, informative, and somewhat depressing for handicappers. A few questions :

1. Why do whales receive a higher rebate at night tracks ?

2. Can you provide a loose description of 'Artificial Odds' ?

[kenwoodallpromos]

You would think with all this new technology that came out over the past two decades such as computer software, new class/speed ratings, racing sheets, figures, products, Internet, etc. that favorites these days would win at even a higher rate? From what I read decades ago favorites won at a 33% clip and over the last 2 years based at all U.S. tracks they won at only a 34.8% clip. Less than a 2% raise from decades ago. So I guess all this new technology doesn't effect favorites winning at much higher rate and doesn't even effect average payoffs of all winners which are still under $13.
Weakening of the breed + shorter fields = same fav win %!!

[Dave Schwartz]

1. Why do whales receive a higher rebate at night tracks ?

The smaller tracks (and night tracks certainly fit that category) offer larger rebates because it makes their product more competitive. They depend upon that handle.

2. Can you provide a loose description of 'Artificial Odds' ?

Sure. It is a tool for predicting what the odds should be. Think of it as handicapping to figure out how the public will bet. You can play against THAT line, determining who the best bets are. This way, when you see your horse plummet from 7/2 to 6/5 you know you are in agreement with the whales. Of course, this does not mean that you are going to make money with that horse. That is what the rest of the strategy is for - to help you bet the best bets that the whales didn't bet.


Dave

[dav4463]

Lone Star was ridiculous tonight. Favorite after favorite after favorite! Finally I hit one solid non-favorite race that allowed me to almost break even.

The favorites that continued to win race after race......most of them looked beatable......that's what gets irritating!

[fmolf]

Lone Star was ridiculous tonight. Favorite after favorite after favorite! Finally I hit one solid non-favorite race that allowed me to almost break even.

The favorites that continued to win race after race......most of them looked beatable......that's what gets irritating!
I did not follow lone star....did all the low priced favs have the same running style?...or after looking at the charts were they all on or near the lead last night?...I think because of so many races and not enough horse we are either going to have to be more patient and more selective to survie or we will need to learn how to use these low priced winners in our betting.....in exactas,tri's and possibly even in the p3's and p4's

[dav4463]

I am learning not to bet on any vulnerable favorite trained by Steve Asmussen. If I bet on Asmussen; he loses. If I try to beat him he wins. He is my nemesis!

[lamboguy]

I am learning not to bet on any vulnerable favorite trained by Steve Asmussen. If I bet on Asmussen; he loses. If I try to beat him he wins. He is my nemesis!i think he won 5 or 6 races last night at lone star. but he ain't giving away anything, this man know's what he is doing at all times, and must get it all at the window's.

[dav4463]

Prices of winners at Indiana Downs today. How do you make money on a day like this?

5.40, 5.20, 6.80, 3.60, 8.00, 4.20, 6.40, 4.20, 3.20, 6.00, 4.80, and oh yeah....$45.80 (just missed this one, had the exacta backwards!)

$4.20 winners and $12.20 exactas just don't cut it for me! How can I predict when the chalk or near chalk is going to dominate?

[nalley0710]

This is the greatest thing ever. People are just pounding the favorites. I've had multiple tickets over the last 3 months that I bet at 17 to 20-1 and won and ended up paying 30 to 55 to one because of late money. Its longshot heaven out here. Needless to say the favorites are being overbet.

[rusrious]

Im betting the favorites, everyday, tracks that are fast, progressive style, and clearing $75 daily

Today, my 2 tracks I worked where Thistle and Fingerlakes, track was fast, and profited $79.

Just sayin, if the favorites are running good, bet them, progressivly.

JMO

[fmolf]

Im betting the favorites, everyday, tracks that are fast, progressive style, and clearing $75 daily

Today, my 2 tracks I worked where Thistle and Fingerlakes, track was fast, and profited $79.

Just sayin, if the favorites are running good, bet them, progressivly.

JMO
one of my favorite plays is a solid favorite with two logical underneath horses in the exacta.the place horses must offer value and i never reverse them.

[senortout]

It seems like a chalkfest for some time now..It's getting old. Throw in the 2nd choice and many of those tracks are probably over 60%. When you see Evangeline at 35% with the biggest fields in racing..You know something isn't right..Could it be these tracks want the favorites to win so they get a higher rate of churn. More the winnings are spread out..More likely they will be bet back through the windows..Which means more take for the track. Just an idea..Maybe I'm way off..

Big fields(Evangeline) don't really cut down the high % of favorites winning, especially at Evangeline, just my opinion, but I played last nite and some of those huge fields only had one or two really live horses with a solid chance of winning!....so where's that leave you?

[dav4463]

I'm playing Evangeline tonight. The brisnet at a glance shows that the average exacta payoff at that track is $114, so of course tonight...when I bet....not a single one has paid over $95 and most are in the $20-$35 range!

Oh well, one race to go. :(

[dav4463]

I'm playing Evangeline tonight. The brisnet at a glance shows that the average exacta payoff at that track is $114, so of course tonight...when I bet....not a single one has paid over $95 and most are in the $20-$35 range!

Oh well, one race to go. :(



note: last race payed a whopping $11.80 ! :(