What is your favorite angle to play at the track?

[jkgoose5]

I know everyone has their own favorite track to play. Mine is Indiana Downs. I love betting Thomas Amoss at the downs when he ships in a horse from Churchill. So far this year he has won 8 out of 11 while doing this.

I have a blog about Indiana Downs everyday but i am not sure if i am allowed to post it on here.

[Fastracehorse]

For a brief period, mayb a month, a trainer is firing with everything in his barn.

There is the problem of overestimating their chances in certain races and underestimating value elsewhere, so while blindly betting them mayb good, 'capping is also good

fffastt

[andymays]

Gelded since last race, competent Trainer, up in class, good works since gelded, and poor previous form. 10-1 or more!

[jkgoose5]

What is your favorite angle to play when your capping?

[acorn54]

why would i make a profitable angle i know available to the public. so people can
use it and deflate the odds i get?

[Bettowin]

3rd race off a layoff of over 90 days.

There are other factors combined with the above that grab my attention better but I always look a bit closer at horses running their 3rd off a layoff.

[fmolf]

why would i make a profitable angle i know available to the public. so people can
use it and deflate the odds i get?
never bet any low % trainers with low % jockeys, riding inconsistent horses!

[LottaKash]

why would i make a profitable angle i know available to the public. so people can
use it and deflate the odds i get?

Acorn, I struggle with the same thing....I want to share, especially with the newer ones, but not everything...:cool:

best

[fmolf]

Acorn, I struggle with the same thing....I want to share, especially with the newer ones, but not everything...:cool:

best
we can share methodology without sharing specific angles that we have uncovered.like any horse first after the claim....let them uncover for themselves which trainers/trainer maneuvers are successful after the claim.... or class drop /track switch but you need to do the research on what tracks and trainers ship successfully to which tracks

[juanepstein]

bottom key trifectas

look for 4 horses you like in a race then decide which of the 4 you think will hit the bottom end of the trifecta(X). put the other 3 on the top then one more that will go up and down in the 2nd and third spot with horse X.

ABC
X
ABCD

ABC
ABCD
X

[fmolf]

bottom key trifectas

look for 4 horses you like in a race then decide which of the 4 you think will hit the bottom end of the trifecta(X). put the other 3 on the top then one more that will go up and down in the 2nd and third spot with horse X.

ABC
X
ABCD

ABC
ABCD
X why don't you use x in the win spot making him only have to hit the board to hit the tri provided your other horses run in?

x/abc/abcd....abc/x/abcd....abc/abcd/x......

only costs an extra nine dollars

[juanepstein]

why don't you use x in the win spot making him only have to hit the board to hit the tri provided your other horses run in?

x/abc/abcd....abc/x/abcd....abc/abcd/x......

only costs an extra nine dollars

i do rarely. but ive found out that a key horse has a bigger hit % in the place and show spot so if i want to increase the amount of my ticket ill add in extra horses on the bottom end.

abc
x
abcdef

abc
abcdef
x

i just keep the key on the bottom end and not stray from it. its bound to hit and when it hits usually the amount is for way more than you put in. a nice bankroll to begin with helps from not getting scared and straying away.two nights ago i came on for night racing and made $1008 likety split with an hour and a half without even handicapping. was just useing morningline patterns and pools.

[KidCapper]

Horses that run on Tuesdays, under lights, with a z in the their name, while ridden with a jockey with a z in his name and trained by a trainer under .06% with a z in his name, horse must be on the turf while wearing bar shoes and the jockey must carry a pro-cush whip, and the temp must be under 75 degrees in a field size of at least 10 with 3 of them being 1st time starters! :D :lol:

[fmolf]

Horses that run on Tuesdays, under lights, with a z in the their name, while ridden with a jockey with a z in his name and trained by a trainer under .06% with a z in his name, horse must be on the turf while wearing bar shoes and the jockey must carry a pro-cush whip, and the temp must be under 75 degrees in a field size of at least 10 with 3 of them being 1st time starters! :D :lol:
whats the roi on this one! :lol:

[jkgoose5]

I agree with you on why you would not want your odds to deflate, but if everyone wanted to share their info then you could pick up on more secrets and angles that you can profit from, the same way they profit from you.

[jkgoose5]

Gelded since last race, competent Trainer, up in class, good works since gelded, and poor previous form. 10-1 or more!

i was wondering what effect a first time gelding would have on a horse

[andymays]

i was wondering what effect a first time gelding would have on a horse


Gelded since last race, competent Trainer, up in class, good works since gelded, and poor previous form. 10-1 or more!


Sometimes it means nothing and sometimes it means everything. Follow the criteria I listed above and you'll make some good scores when the situation comes up.

[acorn54]

unfortunately according to my database which covers some 5 years ALL profitable angles become well known very fast and ALL become overbet.

[cmoore]

unfortunately according to my database which covers some 5 years ALL profitable angles become well known very fast and ALL become overbet.

My database goes back 10 years and I still have profitable angles..I'll never share them..I take that back.. juanepstein is the only person I've told..;)

[fmolf]

My database goes back 10 years and I still have profitable angles..I'll never share them..I take that back.. juanepstein is the only person I've told..;)
profitable angles are made profitable thru sensible handicapping and not playing the angle blindly.

[acorn54]

My database goes back 10 years and I still have profitable angles..I'll never share them..I take that back.. juanepstein is the only person I've told..;)


i meant to say profitable angles made public.

[acorn54]

profitable angles are made profitable thru sensible handicapping and not playing the angle blindly.

i think owners of jcapper would beg to differ with you. jeff platt and others have angles from the jcapper software that are profitable, thank you very much

[Hajck Hillstrom]

.....key to the vault.

A horse stepping up off a drop and an out of money finish.

Remember where you got it.

[acorn54]

.....key to the vault.

A horse stepping up off a drop and an out of money finish.

Remember where you got it.

are you basing this on a database of past results or is this just anecdotal, from memory?

[fmolf]

i think owners of jcapper would beg to differ with you. jeff platt and others have angles from the jcapper software that are profitable, thank you very much
i believe their are angles that work for a short time ..trainer/jockey angles...trainer "a" dropping two classes using jockey "b"....trainer "a" 3yr olds first turf sprint....certain trainers shipping to certain tracks dropping/raising in class...their out there ,but how long do they stay profitable for?

[cmoore]

profitable angles are made profitable thru sensible handicapping and not playing the angle blindly.

I was just kidding..I don't have no stinking database..

[magwell]

I have a interesting angle that may have some potential. It would be interesting to run It thru a database to see if its as good as it seems. It deals with dropping and stretching with just a few rules

[kenwoodallpromos]

i was wondering what effect a first time gelding would have on a horse
Less wind resistance...Oh, sorry, that is for fair racing pigs!!

My best angle which covers all my +ROI angles= Predictable horses in predictable races, unpredictable horse in unpredictable races (very few middle-odds horses). Seriously!

[acorn54]

I have a interesting angle that may have some potential. It would be interesting to run It thru a database to see if its as good as it seems. It deals with dropping and stretching with just a few rules



found nothing in my tests. i am curious why would you think if you drop a horse in class at the same time that you stretch out the horse in distance it would mean anything?

[Bruddah]

I believe angles work, if you know your track and trainers. Smart trainers move their stock to meets with goals. Know those trainers and why they have horses stabled at that track. Keep a good db and your roi will shoot up and you will be profitable.

[Imriledup]

I try and stay away from angles and try to bet on the fastest horse. Angles are for people who haven't been able to identify the fastest horse.

[BIG HIT]

I don't think will ever lose your price on them.The late jerry stokes had a half dozen or so.I won a online contest useing them few year's back these angle's still work today.The last longshot recall was B.C. classic.ML was 50 to1 gave to all my pal's at the track way before race and they know i am pretty good with longshot's plus the horse was comeing off a win still none put him on top of tri or exacta or bet him to win.
Why who knows like some one posted on another post the horse think was derby all three horse in the money were thrid off lay off.How old is that angle? Oh ya the horse B.C. classic volponi.Just my opinion

[magwell]

found nothing in my tests. i am curious why would you think if you drop a horse in class at the same time that you stretch out the horse in distance it would mean anything? A couple of things, For one it's a hidden double drop in class.Other factors are speed and pace in the right spots thats why the rules......:)

[acorn54]

A couple of things, For one it's a hidden double drop in class.Other factors are speed and pace in the right spots thats why the rules......:)

please explain how it is a hidden drop in class

[Rapid Grey]

Used to use the mis-spelled horse name in the workouts quite a bit. Tracks have tightened up on that one though. DRF used to list stake nominations as well that produced more than one nice score.

Turnback in distance is one I'll always use too, stongest is when you have a speed horse on the turf cutting back from a mile and an eighth to a flat mile.

[magwell]

please explain how it is a hidden drop in class Most of the time, sprints come up tougher then route races for the same tag.

[Light]

The bad news: Most angles are fairy tales,myths and heresay and fall flat on their face when subjected to a physical study of their ROI and hit rate.


The good news:If you take an angle one step further,you will find subsets of the angle where certain criteria and/or parameters turn a losing angle 180 degrees around.

For example in one of my latest studies of routes to sprints,I looked at 74 horses who switched distances. Of those 74 horses, 20 qualified with a specific criteria and 5 won for an investment of $40 and a return of $61.

Of other 54 who did not qualify with this criteria,(only 3 factors involved),only 2 won. That investment would be $108 and a return of $19.

The point is you cant take any angle like turn back in distance and say,"I love horses doing that". You need to know what you are talking about.

[Rapid Grey]

The bad news: Most angles are fairy tales,myths and heresay and fall flat on their face when subjected to a physical study of their ROI and hit rate.


The good news:If you take an angle one step further,you will find subsets of the angle where certain criteria and/or parameters turn a losing angle 180 degrees around.

For example in one of my latest studies of routes to sprints,I looked at 74 horses who switched distances. Of those 74 horses, 20 qualified with a specific criteria and 5 won for an investment of $40 and a return of $61.

Of other 54 who did not qualify with this criteria,(only 3 factors involved),only 2 won. That investment would be $108 and a return of $19.

The point is you cant take any angle like turn back in distance and say,"I love horses doing that". You need to know what you are talking about.

Your ROI is based on win prices. Playing turnbacks is more likely to be successful for exotic wagering rather than straights. Your ROI theory may be more suited to horses going from Maiden Specil Weight to Maiden Claiming, where running styles are still largely undetermined.

[fmolf]

Your ROI is based on win prices. Playing turnbacks is more likely to be successful for exotic wagering rather than straights. Your ROI theory may be more suited to horses going from Maiden Specil Weight to Maiden Claiming, where running styles are still largely undetermined.
i said earlier and i still stick to it....we all know what angles are profitable....3rd off the layoff.... first off the claim.....running for a tag for the first time.....big middle move.....increased early or late speed......first time blinkers...etc...etc....these angles bet blindly will lose money...these angles , paying attention to specific trainer /jockey/track with a good in form fit and ready horse can be profitable...

[Rapid Grey]

i said earlier and i still stick to it....we all know what angles are profitable....3rd off the layoff.... first off the claim.....running for a tag for the first time.....big middle move.....increased early or late speed......first time blinkers...etc...etc....these angles bet blindly will lose money...these angles , paying attention to specific trainer /jockey/track with a good in form fit and ready horse can be profitable...

Really doubt anyone who spends time posting here would be a "bet blindly" type of player, some of you are taking these opinions literally, as if it's the only angle used and we bet it EVERY TIME. The only people I know who play the same angle every time are those who play their "numbers."

[Sid]

Every "angle," IMHO, is something that remains subject to handicapping. Meaning, if I were to post a favorite angle, and you went to the PPs for the third race from Bowie tomorrow, and said: "Look, you like Old Soandso and he's 150/1!" . . . then I might well say I wouldn't be that horse with your money. And that might be true if he were 8/5.

That said, within the genre of the "turf-to-dirt" angle, I stop and actually think about it if it's a front-running horse.

[Light]

Your ROI is based on win prices. Playing turnbacks is more likely to be successful for exotic wagering rather than straights. Your ROI theory may be more suited to horses going from Maiden Specil Weight to Maiden Claiming, where running styles are still largely undetermined.

You're missing something much more important to ROI and the reason I undertake these studies.

ROI has more to do with avoiding losers than it does with hitting winners. Thats because most bets within an angle are losing ones, and will destroy a bankroll. Knowing when to bet an angle is the key.

[Rapid Grey]

This thread is turning into Handicapping 101.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

you went to the PPs for the third race from Bowie tomorrow, I would be caught in a time warp...... :D

[Hajck Hillstrom]

.... and how one uses angle plays. I will utilize longshot angle plays on Pik4 and Pik6 tickets in a spread race with a vulnerable fave. Hard to measure their ROI over a period of time, but they have been instrumental in taking down some pretty decent hits over the years.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

are you basing this on a database of past results or is this just anecdotal, from memory?From the hip, brother. Check it out for yourself. You will see that you won't need a very high hit rate.

[riskman]

I would be caught in a time warp...... :D

You are not aware of the "Time Warp" angle ? I made a killing with that spot play at Hialeah this winter. :)

[dav4463]

bottom key trifectas

look for 4 horses you like in a race then decide which of the 4 you think will hit the bottom end of the trifecta(X). put the other 3 on the top then one more that will go up and down in the 2nd and third spot with horse X.

ABC
X
ABCD

ABC
ABCD
X

I really like this one. I am pretty good at picking some high odds horses that I can use for X. I would also put a few bucks to win on Horse X as well because it would really suck to pick a 40-1 shot to hit the board and he wins and I don't have a win bet on him!

[fmolf]

You are not aware of the "Time Warp" angle ? I made a killing with that spot play at Hialeah this winter. :)
can't wait for rockingham to open for its summer meet

[overthehill]

a couple of ideas food for thought:

years ago I made some amazing scores betting horses trained by frank wright who were maidens making their second starts after a poor effort in their first start. maybe 5 or 6 times they won at prices over 20-1. this was before data bases.

On the other hand at the time the casinos were opening up in atlantic city I made my only trip to atlantic city to bet on a filly in a stake race. the filly was well beaten by a Jerkens filly. I said to someone that I hadnt expect the winner to run so well, and he responded why not she won the same race last year. I had forgotten this until noticing that Thorn something won a stake at CD paying 9-1 and it too was a race on turf he had one last year. The same thing happens with trainers who seem to know or point to one particular race.
I dont know if this angle is profitable but i expect it might well be given the payoff excedding 5-1 for winner. When woody won 5 belmonts in a row the prices were pretty square for many of his winner. I think only one was under 2-1.

[Overlay]

On the other hand at the time the casinos were opening up in atlantic city I made my only trip to atlantic city to bet on a filly in a stake race. the filly was well beaten by a Jerkens filly. I said to someone that I hadnt expect the winner to run so well, and he responded why not she won the same race last year. I had forgotten this until noticing that Thorn something won a stake at CD paying 9-1 and it too was a race on turf he had one last year. The same thing happens with trainers who seem to know or point to one particular race. I dont know if this angle is profitable but i expect it might well be given the payoff excedding 5-1 for winner. When woody won 5 belmonts in a row the prices were pretty square for many of his winner. I think only one was under 2-1.

Ainslie once commented on taking the old handicapping maxim about never betting on a horse to do something today that it hadn't been able to do previously, and turning it on its head by finding a horse that was being given a chance to repeat a victory in a race today under conditions such as class and distance that were the same as a race that it had won earlier (perhaps much earlier, to the extent that the previous race was no longer visible in the horse's past performances). The horse's recent form didn't matter, as long as it had been racing and working frequently enough to indicate that it was basically physically sound.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

.....key to the vault.

A horse stepping up off a drop and an out of money finish. Today's closing leg of the early Pik4 at Belmont..... WORDTOTHEWISE. Was dropped from MSW to Mcl20 and ran 5th. Steps up one level to Mcl25 to WIN and pay $113.50, keying a Pik4 payout of $3,990.00! :ThmbUp:

[Light]

WORDTOTHEWISE... Steps up one level to Mcl25

IMO she was dropping in class. The last 2 you are talking about were on dirt. 3 back she sprinted on the inner turf for $35k finishing only 4 lengths back. I dont understand why you would reference her dirt form when it is a grass race. Don't you think it would be more accurate to reference her grass race? If you do that,you get a drop from the last time she was on that surface.(This is another reason why a single paceline is superior to averaging pacelines,but that's another subject.)

Now look at the favorite at 8/5. Same class and distance(as the 55-1 shot) in only turf try finishing 6 lenghts back. 2 lengths farther back than the 55-1 shot in their respective races! Bris gave both these horses the same race rating;107.Race rating is the measurement of the overall quality of horses which actually competed in a race - the higher the number, the tougher the competition..

A CLASS RATING measures a horse's actual performance in a race - the higher the number, the better the performance.The favorite had earned a 2 point higher CR than the 55-1 shot. 109 to 107. You got to ask yourself are those 2 points worth the difference between 55-1 and 8/5. Considering that turf variants are much more shaky than dirt variants,that difference may not even exist since the CR includes a variant.

I didn't play the race,so I'm not redboarding. I'm only pointing out this angle since this is the topic of this thread. The point is,if the public held the favorite in such high regard out of that turf race,that legitamized the 55-1 shot since her numbers were about the same in her only turf start in exactly the same distance,class and surface. That they ran 1-2, further legitamizes this angle.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I dont understand why you would reference her dirt form when it is a grass race. Don't you think it would be more accurate to reference her grass race? The title of the thread is "What is your favorite angle?"

Earlier in the thread, I listed mine as "A horse stepping up off a drop and an out of money finish."

The recent posting was an illustration of the potential of the play. Another response was that this is a useful tool in consideration of contenders in a horizontal wager... perhaps in a chaotic race where a spread might be utilized.

This was a tough one to come up with as the trainer hadn't put one in the winner's circle in over a year, and hadn't shown me that he could step a horse up and win, but it is a simple longshot contender criteria, and not all that common of an angle.

I don't have the data to back up the theory, but from what I've experienced over the years, it has been the key to the 5 figure signer.

No problem from me in dismissing the angle, and feel free to complicate it to your heart's content. I was sharing a profitable perspective, and have no issue with any/everyone :lol: :lol: it off.

[Imriledup]

My favorite angle is to play the fastest horse. I don't know if that's an angle, but that's what i look for, the steed with the most talent.

[Light]

The title of the thread is "What is your favorite angle?"

Earlier in the thread, I listed mine as "A horse stepping up off a drop and an out of money finish."



I see what you're saying. I guess I would have missed out because I would have referenced the grass race and not considered the horse as stepping up. But the method I outlined would have brought the winner into question as well.

[delayjf]

This horse changed barns prior to his win yesterday, whatever Edmond Pringle did with this horse worked.

Her previous turf race was competitive with the favorites in this field, she did improve her speed figure a bit which suggested he might like that surface he ran his best late pace rating to date (80 - TSN pace numbers) which was only one point away from the fields best (81). I suspect they were sending her in his next start on the turf but when that race was taken off and run on dirt, I think the trainer opted to use that race as a conditioner.

Her last race may have also been a conditioner saving her best until they could get her back on the turf. Who knows, perhaps there were no MC turf races available after her second race back or perhaps she failed to draw in. But if you drop a horse in class and it gets bet down from 30-1 to 4-1 and runs poorly (possibly by design) then you will get a good price when you raise her back up in class in her next start. And Light is correct in terms of the turf, this horse is dropping in class from 35k to 25k, but the crowd precieved it as a rise in class based on its last race claiming price of 20k.

All the above would have made more sence to me if the same trainer had been calling the shots - the switch in barns would have thrown me off.