Important Factors

[mwilding1981]

I have been looking at creating new factors for my model and would like to get everyones opinion on here about what factors they feel are important in predicting a race. I am not looking for anyone to suggest how to create the factor just a comprehensive list of what it should measure for everyone on PA. Being based in the UK and not having sectionals obviously makes it difficult to assess pace but still anyone who knows about them please put them in for the use of everyone.

Let me start with a few, probably more obvious, ones.

Speed
Predicted speed under todays conditions
Collateral form under todays conditions
Collateral form
Collateral speed
Class level
Class level increase/decrease from lto
Risk of fall
Volatility of speed
Volatility of class
Current fitness
Optimal fitness
Preference for going, course, distance
Preference for similar going, course, distance
Affect of lto winner on this horse
Likelihood of increased performance
Preference for race type
Pace advantage
Quality of race
Form rating
Optimum DSLR
Difference between Optimum DSLR and todays DSLR
Competitiveness
Performance level lto
Likely effect of todays weights
Draw bias
Track bias
Number of races in lifetime

Trainers SR at todays conditions
Jockeys SR at todays conditions
Jockeys competitive performance level at todays conditions
Jockeys preference for course, going, distance
Jockeys prefernce for similar course, going, distance

[LottaKash]

I use many factors in my handicapping some of them are Key, some are strong but not key, and many others that support the key things...But, I have found that understanding where a contender may be, in his form-cycle..,Is he staying the same, improving, or regressing in form ? I believe this is the most important consideration of all, after all the leg-work is finished....

best,

[Robert Goren]

I start by trying to figure who is the best horse. Then I try to figure how he can get beat. The second is easier than the first.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Well, if you are talking about European or English turf races, where most of the horses finish with a length of another horse, I would dump any horse who finished less that neck behind any other horse= not competitive enough.
If the winer of a race was a loser last out, study how far behind the horse just in front it finished last race.

[harntrox]

Trouble Time
Top Winning Stable 10%
Jock/Trainer Top 3 Win %
Trainer ReClaim
Appraisal value
Pedigree
Workouts
Class Shipper 1st time this Track
Stranger Danger (trainer or jock)
Seasonal 3Yo lengths adjust
Females vs Males lengths adjust