Pick 6 - Carryover Hollywood FRIDAY NITE

[jayfree41]

Today's thread was enjoyable as the pick 6 carried into Friday. Thanks for everybody's input as the the card trudged along. Amazing how many (potential) singles won - #1 in the 6th Bejarano/Mullins and Rosario's #15 in the last - and it still carried over!

Friday nite's card is tricky - but perhaps doable. Lots of horses and a few puzzling maiden claiming events.

From the first leg - is it possible to eliminate - the 9/5 m/l favorite of Gomez and Drysdale? I thinking it may very well be a flawed favorite.

Enjoy your comments - see you tomorrow for continued thread.

[fmolf]

Today's thread was enjoyable as the pick 6 carried into Friday. Thanks for everybody's input as the the card trudged along. Amazing how many (potential) singles won - #1 in the 6th Bejarano/Mullins and Rosario's #15 in the last - and it still carried over!

Friday nite's card is tricky - but perhaps doable. Lots of horses and a few puzzling maiden claiming events.

From the first leg - is it possible to eliminate - the 9/5 m/l favorite of Gomez and Drysdale? I thinking it may very well be a flawed favorite.

Enjoy your comments - see you tomorrow for continued thread.
thats because their seems to be no consistency to the polytrack races....whats in the pool now?

[jayfree41]

$520,000 plus carryover.

Hollywood is the most consistently speed favoring track of the polytracks in my opinion.

According Davidowitz at drf.com - Hollywood is even more speed favoring at NIGHT TIME when the track is cooler.

[fmolf]

$520,000 plus carryover.

Hollywood is the most consistently speed favoring track of the polytracks in my opinion.

According Davidowitz at drf.com - Hollywood is even more speed favoring at NIGHT TIME when the track is cooler.
i had heard that on a number of occasions on other threads here that temperature fluctuations have an effect on track speed...what % of races are won wire to wire?.....i never play the ca. tracks i'm an east coaster..plenty to choose from here....not a big fan of the polytracks anyway.

[jayfree41]

a rough average from brisnet track bias charts - wire to wire rate for sprints ....about 34%.at Hollywood..less than I thought.

[fmolf]

a rough average from brisnet track bias charts - wire to wire rate for sprints ....about 34%.at Hollywood..less than I thought.
what about the early speed bias number and the winners beaten lengths?.....maybe i should take a small ticket on the p6... i never play it ever .....what might the pool get to tomorrow?

[Cadillakin]

i had heard that on a number of occasions on other threads here that temperature fluctuations have an effect on track speed...what % of races are won wire to wire?.....i never play the ca. tracks i'm an east coaster..plenty to choose from here....not a big fan of the polytracks anyway.
You can play Cushion track at Hollypark just like you would a dirt track. In some ways it's superior to the old dirt track, in that for many years, the Hollypark chute races 6.5 - 7.5 furlongs (which they card alot) had a terrible bias against inside runners.. It was if they were running in quicksand down there...

Cushion track has no such bias.. nor does it play anything like Polytrack. It's fair for all runners..

[andymays]

They stopped spending money to add the correct materials so they've been adding dirt and sand for a while now. It's basically a dirt track!

[Cadillakin]

They stopped spending money to add the correct materials so they've been adding dirt and sand for a while now. It's basically a dirt track!
Maybe so.. but even in it's first season, it was an easy transition for the handicapper.. Nothing at all like Poly or Pro-Ride.

[andymays]

Maybe so.. but even in it's first season, it was an easy transition for the handicapper.. Nothing at all like Poly or Pro-Ride.

Nothing's like Pro Ride and it's 50% carryover rate(Hocus Pocus Junk in my opinion)!


Don't get me started!

[andymays]

Maybe so.. but even in it's first season, it was an easy transition for the handicapper.. Nothing at all like Poly or Pro-Ride.


Are you playing a ticket tonight?

[fmolf]

You can play Cushion track at Hollypark just like you would a dirt track. In some ways it's superior to the old dirt track, in that for many years, the Hollypark chute races 6.5 - 7.5 furlongs (which they card alot) had a terrible bias against inside runners.. It was if they were running in quicksand down there...

Cushion track has no such bias.. nor does it play anything like Polytrack. It's fair for all runners..
these numbers are the difference between the cushion track winners average pace to the 4f (sprints)and 6f(routes) marks.cushion track pace is slower for every distance so do not tell me it plays the same!that is a crock of bunk.

6f-slow .36

6.5f-slow .44

7f-slow .33

7.3f-slow .65

8f-slow .71

9f-slow .80

you can see from these numbers that jockeys are trying to slow the races down

[Bison]

these numbers are the difference between the cushion track winners average pace to the 4f (sprints)and 6f(routes) marks.cushion track pace is slower for every distance so do not tell me it plays the same!that is a crock of bunk.

6f-slow .36

6.5f-slow .44

7f-slow .33

7.3f-slow .65

8f-slow .71

9f-slow .80

you can see from these numbers that jockeys are trying to slow the races down

I agree fmolf,
It really becomes a trip game now. I had a couple of horses yesterday that were full of run and nowhere to go. Too many horses herded together on the turn IMO.

[fmolf]

I agree fmolf,
It really becomes a trip game now. I had a couple of horses yesterday that were full of run and nowhere to go. Too many horses herded together on the turn IMO.
some people want to believe that it plays like a dirt track when in reality it plays more like a turf track!

[fmolf]

They stopped spending money to add the correct materials so they've been adding dirt and sand for a while now. It's basically a dirt track!
what does the vaunted CHRB have to say about that!...and how will these despicable actions skew their impeccable safety record? :rolleyes:

[andymays]

what does the vaunted CHRB have to say about that!...and how will these despicable actions skew their impeccable safety record? :rolleyes:


I think they're just winging it!

[Cadillakin]

these numbers are the difference between the cushion track winners average pace to the 4f (sprints)and 6f(routes) marks.cushion track pace is slower for every distance so do not tell me it plays the same!that is a crock of bunk.

6f-slow .36

6.5f-slow .44

7f-slow .33

7.3f-slow .65

8f-slow .71

9f-slow .80

you can see from these numbers that jockeys are trying to slow the races down
Slow, compared to what? I think you are extrapolating what you have read in the forums about jockeys adjusting to Pro-Ride over to HollyParks Cushion. There is no anti-speed bias at HollyPark.. Jockeys arent taking their speed back into the pack to give themselves a winning chance.. Horses aren't collapsing off slow fractions....

If you don't want to take my advice on a track that I have a very hefty postive ROI over, I don't care..

Do as you please.

[Cadillakin]

Are you playing a ticket tonight?
Nope. I rarely play the pick 6.. but I would for that kind of money if I liked the sequence.. But I don't.

[andymays]

Nope. I rarely play the pick 6.. but I would for that kind of money if I liked the sequence.. But I don't.


I don't like it either so I will put in a very small one again!

[DeanT]

You can play Cushion track at Hollypark just like you would a dirt track. In some ways it's superior to the old dirt track, in that for many years, the Hollypark chute races 6.5 - 7.5 furlongs (which they card alot) had a terrible bias against inside runners.. It was if they were running in quicksand down there...

Cushion track has no such bias.. nor does it play anything like Polytrack. It's fair for all runners..
You are right on young fella :ThmbUp:

Although if I agree with you maybe you want to change your opinion :D

[andymays]

You are right on young fella :ThmbUp:

Although if I agree with you maybe you want to change your opinion :D


I agree for the most part. It's much closer to a dirt surface than a synthetic surface.

[miesque]

Personally I have never had a problem capping the Hollywood Park Cushion Track and it plays logically to me, but then again I have hit the ground pretty hard coming off a horse a few times (ok, more then a few times) so that may have something to do with it because Arlington Park's Polytrack also seems pretty logical to me. :D

[fmolf]

Slow, compared to what? I think you are extrapolating what you have read in the forums about jockeys adjusting to Pro-Ride over to HollyParks Cushion. There is no anti-speed bias at HollyPark.. Jockeys arent taking their speed back into the pack to give themselves a winning chance.. Horses aren't collapsing off slow fractions....

If you don't want to take my advice on a track that I have a very hefty postive ROI over, I don't care..

Do as you please.
slow compared to the same winnerstimes on the old dirt track....you said yourself(on another thread) that times fluctuate wildy at hollywood...well what is it...positive roi has nothing to do with how a track plays or how one perceives it to be playing..the figures are from a website pace-figures.com

[Cadillakin]

slow compared to the same winnerstimes on the old dirt track....you said yourself(on another thread) that times fluctuate wildy at hollywood...well what is it...positive roi has nothing to do with how a track plays or how one perceives it to be playing..the figures are from a website pace-figures.comIt doesn't matter one iota what the old dirt track played like.. Just because a new track surface plays slower than the old track surface does not mean it doesn't play like a dirt surfaces... If Gulfstream plays faster than Calder, does Calder then play like synthetic? Is that what you are saying? Where do you get this stuff? They have a website, you say? Who cares?

Furthermore, I never said that Hollywood Park fluctuates wildly... You again took some information you read and improperly extrapolated it.. When I refer to the variance that occurs with synthetics, I'm referring to ProRide and Poly, not Cushion Track.. I've already written volumes on the subject.. Cushion track plays very much like a fast dirt surface.. Period.

[Cadillakin]

Today's thread was enjoyable as the pick 6 carried into Friday. Thanks for everybody's input as the the card trudged along. Amazing how many (potential) singles won - #1 in the 6th Bejarano/Mullins and Rosario's #15 in the last - and it still carried over!

Friday nite's card is tricky - but perhaps doable. Lots of horses and a few puzzling maiden claiming events.

From the first leg - is it possible to eliminate - the 9/5 m/l favorite of Gomez and Drysdale? I thinking it may very well be a flawed favorite.

Enjoy your comments - see you tomorrow for continued thread.I have opinions in the first leg, but I'm not sure my input will be that helpful.. but I've got a lot of time to fill till tonights card.. ;)

Drysdale's filly faced a couple of pretty good fields in her first two.. but in both, she looked loaded, lugged out when it counted, and finished poorly. Her last over the grass.. it looked like she was a spectator watching the other horses when she came across the dirt.. and again she lugged out.. She ran about 50 yards when the horse passed her... but other than that.. I'm not impressed.. If Bejarano can't get her to behave and finish, it's doubtful others can. If she is much best from a class standpoint, perhaps she takes this.. But IMO, she looks like she would rather stay home and eat some grass - rather than race on it..

Gumption is not suited to anything beyond 6 furlongs, so her form looks worse than it is.. In longer races, she ran pretty well to the furlong grounds with Hard Kisses and Ride Me Fast which should make her dangerous in here.. Nevertheless, I'm not impressed with this gal. She is not quick, nor does she finish with any gusto.. She needs to be included on any ticket.. but if I could find anybody that had a good upside, I'd bet against her

Shiksa finished her first race, as genuine.. Very good field too. Note, she ran by Hard Kisses in the lane who came back to graduate and handled Gumption easily... But did the slower ProRide move her up? Can she run faster than the 47 half's she ran in her last two races? If not, she is going to turn for home 6-8 lengths behind the field.. and that is not how you win races on the Hollypark Turf. I do like her pedigree to love the grass, however.

Guillot's filly didn't run that well on the grass and appears not to have much speed, nor does she finish well.. She is alot like Gumption, but seemingly slower.

Hess's filly on the rail is interesting.. Rahy can get some very fast horses and her dam already produced a top class grass runner and a couple of others who did well over the surface.. You wonder why she is coming across the country to enter this race? Does Keeneland have no grass sprints for maidens? If not, that strengthens the move.. One work out of the gate, maybe purposely slow to qualify...

The outside filly has a good tab and showed brief speed in her last.. It wouldn't be a shocker seeing Pedroza putting her on a clear lead.. As to what she will do with that clear lead, your guess is as good as mine.. She sure didn't run very far last time..

And then there is another filly, a homebred that looks like she can't run who gets Koriner and Bejarano for her Western debut.. On form, she looks 30-1, but with those connections, she might be half of that..

I would definitely take a long look at the rail filly... Action and presence.. I'm not a big proponent of first timers but this field looks fairly slow and without much class. If she has any quality, she might sprint away from these..

Other than the inside filly, I haven't any real leanings... about who to put on and who to throw out

[fmolf]

It doesn't matter one iota what the old dirt track played like.. Just because a new track surface plays slower than the old track surface does not mean it doesn't play like a dirt surfaces... If Gulfstream plays faster than Calder, does Calder then play like synthetic? Is that what you are saying? Where do you get this stuff? They have a website, you say? Who cares?

Furthermore, I never said that Hollywood Park fluctuates wildly... You again took some information you read and improperly extrapolated it.. When I refer to the variance that occurs with synthetics, I'm referring to ProRide and Poly, not Cushion Track.. I've already written volumes on the subject.. Cushion track plays very much like a fast dirt surface.. Period.
well here are your exact words from the thread "speed is it really what it once was?"(post 47)
"but i will remind you,we play synthetics,and sometimes final times are widely divergent on those surfaces from one day to the next,and week to week.All socal players can vouch for that"...if not times to judge how fair a track plays then what do we have to go by?

[BombsAway Bob]

Los Alamitos tonite has a Guaranteed $75,000 Early Pick-4 (10:15pm/ET)
kicking off with fields of 8-8-9-8, & Three of the four are T'Bred Races!
here's the entry betting sheet: http://www.losalamitos.com/laqhr/entries/20090619.pdf (http://www.losalamitos.com/laqhr/entries/20090619.pdf)
Don't Miss budding Superstar FREAKY
(who's set TWO LosAL track records in his last three starts) in the Featured ED BURKE FUTURITY.
Late P4 starts @ 12:30am/ET, The Ed Burke goes around 1:30am/ET.
Here's ML man/Track Announcer ED BURGART's Pick-4 plays & comments:
http://www.losalamitos.com/laqhr/handicap.cfm (http://www.losalamitos.com/laqhr/handicap.cfm)
good luck!

[Cadillakin]

well here are your exact words from the thread "speed is it really what it once was?"(post 47)
"but i will remind you,we play synthetics,and sometimes final times are widely divergent on those surfaces from one day to the next,and week to week.All socal players can vouch for that...if not times to judge how fair a track plays then what do we have to go by?
I was NOT referring to Hollywood Park in that quotation. Even though it's labeled synthetic, it doesn't play like one.. I don't know how many times I have to say the same thing.. andymays and the few others that joined this thread all agree that Hollypark plays like a dirt track, so it's not all about me... or my singular opinion. I was trying to give you some helpful advice, that's all. If you don't want to take it from a player who consistently wins at that track, that's up to you..

As to your last question, if not times, what do we have to go by?

To be perfectly clear, I do study pace segments and acceleration, but as for making numbers and adjusting final times, that's not my bag. Ok?

Racing is about horses trying to win... It's about matchups.. It's match races within the races.. Get a sense of who is better than whom and under what conditions, and you might then get a path to consistent winnings... Other than that, I haven't much more to add..

[fmolf]

I was NOT referring to Hollywood Park in that quotation. Even though it's labeled synthetic, it doesn't play like one.. I don't know how many times I have to say the same thing.. andymays and the few others that joined this thread all agree that Hollypark plays like a dirt track, so it's not all about me... or my singular opinion. I was trying to give you some helpful advice, that's all. If you don't want to take it from a player who consistently wins at that track, that's up to you..

As to your last question, if not times, what do we have to go by?

To be perfectly clear, I do study pace segments and acceleration, but as for making numbers and adjusting final times, that's not my bag. Ok?

Racing is about horses trying to win... It's about matchups.. It's match races within the races.. Get a sense of who is better than whom and under what conditions, and you might then get a path to consistent winnings... Other than that, I haven't much more to add..
just the fact that their adding dirt now tells me all i need to know....if you say it plays like a dirt track then so be it i do not play it anyway......how do you compare shippers and horses moving up in class then?

[Cadillakin]

just the fact that their adding dirt now tells me all i need to know....if you say it plays like a dirt track then so be it i do not play it anyway......how do you compare shippers and horses moving up in class then?
I use charts and class comparisons... in conjunction with pace and final time. I never said that final time was to be ignored, only that I do not spend time making or adjusting figures..

You can look at that synopsis above .. the 3rd at HollyPark.. that's how I view a race.. Note that I make reference to horses being slow or not fast enough, or their pace segment unimpressive...

So, again, I'm not blind.. I see the final times.. but the point is.. time by itself, not placed in the context of competition is not very meaningful to me.

[jayfree41]

Cadillakin - thanks for your cogent analysis of the first leg of the pick 6.

It is again a difficult pick 6 - and I may layoff - not decided yet.

The only horse that sparkles to me somewhat is Gumption the Mike Smith/Headley horse - who's siblings really do well on the grass.

I am intrigued with the Hess horse too.

It is certainly a race that you should go wide in - but that goes for every one of the races below it - which means - we may just have a massive pick 6 carryover into Saturday - while I am on a cruise ship to Alaska!!!!!

[Cadillakin]

Cadillakin - thanks for your cogent analysis of the first leg of the pick 6.

It is again a difficult pick 6 - and I may layoff - not decided yet.

The only horse that sparkles to me somewhat is Gumption the Mike Smith/Headley horse - who's siblings really do well on the grass.

I am intrigued with the Hess horse too.

It is certainly a race that you should go wide in - but that goes for every one of the races below it - which means - we may just have a massive pick 6 carryover into Saturday - while I am on a cruise ship to Alaska!!!!!
What, no wireless on the cruise ship to pick off that carryover? Just kidding.. :)

I just visited Alaska for the first time last year.. My middle daughter is married to an Air Force man and they're stationed up there.. It was a lot of fun...

I agree about the difficulty of the card... Yesterday, I had Life by RR and Andalacia down as possible plays.. but I didn't get my price on either. Today, I don't see any races in the sequence that I can hone in on... Nothing.. I could play 5 in every race and I'm not sure I would even get 5 of 6.

It's that tough for me... But others of course, will see it differently and perhaps will do very well..

[markgoldie]

Here's my unsolicited analysis of Holly's Pick 6 tonight. Please be kind enough to keep in mind that I am not charging for this and therefore, I feel confident that you'll find it's worth what you paid for it.

Hollywood Analysis of Pick Six:

Race #3:

Apparent contenders: #1 Seduced, #3 Shiksa, #5 Royal Fortune, #6 Gumption, #8 Meili.

Note: #2 Surprises Welcomed is apparently mis-categorized as an E/P by Brisnet. Clearly this is a straight E-type, the evidence being a failure to gain lengths from the pace call to the finish in all career starts save one in which she picked up ½ length but apparently only due to the collapse of another horse or horses. She is very unlikely to have the lead or win. #4 Mocha D’oro is easily eliminated on final figs. #7 firster Miss Anime is eliminated on the weakness of trainer, sire, and workout record.

#1 Seduced is eliminated on the basis of the training record, which shows the horse to be a problem child to say the least. After a couple of works in the fall of her 2-yr. old career, she was put to bed until April, where she came out flying with a :35.3 three F drill. This work apparently set her way back as we then have a series of lackluster works. By the end of May, she is showing some signs of life only to be recently-shipped West. Her lone work at Hollywood shows no indication that the new environs have helped. Hess is a low-percentage firster trainer and a low-percentage turf trainer.

#8 Meili is a difficult-but-necessary elimination. Difficult because Steve Klein’s sophisticated speed-point model has her faster than Royal Fortune and in my experience, that means she is very likely to have the lead in this race. Unfortunately, the speed bias at this distance and surface favors P-types, so Meili may have a strong influence on the outcome while not getting the job done herself.

#6 Gumption racked up a high final fig as a beaten favorite in last, but has been racing steadily in an attempt to graduate without success in five chances. In my opinion, she is also mis-categorized by Bris as an E/P, when her consistent loss of lengths from the 2nd pace call to the wire are all negative. She is a straight E-type and will probably be chasing at least two horses. Headley’s turf and first turf records are terrible. Necessary elimination.

This leaves us with Royal Fortune and Shiksa. #s 3 and 5


Race #4

When you have a strong, legitimate S (0) horse like #7 Bestdressed, the most likely horse to beat him would be the speed survivor. The question is, who is the speed survivor in this race? The answer to that question would seem to revolve around the race that Principle Secret will run. This is a 5-yr. old with apparent soundness problems who makes a career out of perpetual training more than his infrequent races. It would be nice if he always brought his “A” game after a layoff, but this is not the case. One would expect Bejarano to get whatever he has out of him, but just what does he have? Assuming you cannot depend on him to be the speed survivor, who else is there? Klein says either Lang Field or Saint Paul are the most likely candidates to make the pace of the others, but each have form and recency problems. Soda Pop Kid and Yankee Visionary both may find themselves well-positioned to pounce on the early speed, but neither one has adjusted final figs that should be good enough to win.

Clearly, this race could eliminate a bunch of players but with nothing more solid to go on, unless the speed turns out to be Principle Secret, it should collapse and leave the race to Bestdressed.

So let’s ask one of the two to take the event.

# 3 Principle Secret, #7 Bestdressed


Race #5

This event is apparently #1 Pacific Halo’s to lose. Has been close in every start and comes off a short freshening following his career worst outing. A return to any one of his other 3 lifetime efforts should make him a winner as he is the only horse to have ever beaten par for the class.

There is a rule of thumb in maiden races that says if the field has generally not shown the ability to run at or better than the par, then you might consider a first-time starter. With the exception of Pacific Halo, as noted, this is the case in this field. So if he fails to run, one of the firsters could do it. Of the two, #10 El Rifle is working much better with a bullet 5F work to his credit.

Of the rest, while I am not in love with his adjusted final figs, #13 Great Raid may be better “positioned” than the rest of the field. He makes his third start as a 3-yr, old and returns to the main track after a fast move on the turf at two turns. In addition, he hits the claiming ranks for the first time, although I am a believer in the strength of the race more than whether or not it carries a tag and Brisnet’s Race Ratings show that the company he’s been keeping is only marginally better than the claimers. Still he makes sense in a race that could be wide open. So let’s include him.

Selections: #1 Pacific Halo, #10 El Rifle, #13 Great Raid

Race #6

The best overall adjusted final figs in this race go to #2 Honoramongfriends, #11 Forest Phantom, #4 Lunch Time, #7 Ata Benchmark, and #9 Scott’s Spirit in that order. These should represent the major contenders. Unfortunately, there are too many to use them all, so we move to a pace analysis for further elimination. The first to go is #7 Ata Benchmark on the reasoning that he is the second-best S-type of the group and since S-types win infrequently, there is even less of a chance when you’re not even the best S in the race.

The pace profile of the event shows little in the way of high speed issues and therefore, this could be a spot for someone to steal the race on the front. Brisnet says we have a 34% wire rate at the distance and a 1.57 IV for E types. But which one of the weak E types in this race is actually the fastest? Here’s where I rely on Klein because the Quirin pace numbers are all bunched at 3 and 4 points. Klein says # 9 Scott’s Spirit is the fastest and I am inclined to believe him. While this horse shows a string of turf races recently, an analysis of his form shows that he does just as well on the all-weather.

#2 Honoramongfriends sports the highest final fig ratings, an acceptable E/P running style, and a switch to Bejarano. The double class drop is a little worrying, but Mullins does it with some frequency and has a 35% win rate when he does. Not a prospect for a single, but a must-include.

#4 Lunch Time is listed as a P by Brisnet and he could be a P type at two turns and in his best form, but neither case prevails. He will be more of an S-type here and more than that, he looks like a failed claim that Morey just wants to dispose of. I base this on the quick turn-around time and drop after his dismal beaten-favorite performance last out. All good reasons to eliminate.

#11 Forest Phantom has good final fig numbers, takes a logical drop in class and if an S-type can win this race, it should be him. Even if the pace profile does not show much early speed, it may be balanced enough to create dueling and if so, it could work to his advantage. A must-include.

Horses: #2 Honoramongfriends, #9 Scott’s Spirit, #11 Forest Phantom


Race #7

Tough race. You have at least 4 horses with adjusted final-fig turf numbers easily good enough to beat the others. Then you have a foreign invader who may be a little cheap, but is training well and has Bejarano. The other problem with elimination of an invader is that while the field is very well balanced, the final fig numbers are well below the class par.

The pace profile also doesn’t do much to help us here. At this distance on the turf, we have 29% going wire-to-wire but the presser types have the best impact values.

# 7 Hovig looks to be the best speed. Moreover, he is the type of 3-yr. old who could build on his lifetime best number last out. His spacing is good and he has been working steadily since the last race. No reason to think the win was a fluke against cheaper because his 2nd pace call was a +2. That means he did not have an easy stroll on the lead against inferior company with which to post a large final number.

If #1 Position A were really an E (4) as Brisnet says, you might be tempted to throw him out on the basis that he needs the front to win and probably will not get it here. However, a close look at the lines shows that he is really an E/P type who can and has closed from his pace-call position. This is a horse who has run pretty much right where the odds say he’ll run, so if they make him the favorite, lookout! According to Brisnet class ratings, Position A’s drop in class is more in name only.

#6 Sognatore is certainly not very exciting. It’s just that the horse is a good fit for the competition. He is a legitimate E/P type, with rock-solid numbers for this group.

#3 Fu Peg He Rat, aside from having a name which I’m sure we can all relate to, is listed as a P (4) runner who, again, has strongly competitive numbers for this group. However, while this horse makes a very shaky elimination, I’m inclined to do it for one reason only- that being I think he is actually an S (0) at this distance. He should be coming strong late, but I think he will be short a few strides.

As mentioned earlier, in my opinion, you must use #5 Itshim if for no other reason that you should not let a complete unknown beat you out of the gimmick.

Race #7 Horses: #1 Position A, #5 Itshim, # 6 Sognatore, #7 Hovig


Race #8

The finale has one thing going for it. As the last race, if you are alive, you should have had the foresight to save a healthy piece of change for the cover win bets.

Of the horses who have raced. #6 Tribal Fire has very legitimate early speed and should be at least near the front.. The other experienced horse that must be used is #2 Kay S. She raced to within 3 fig points of the class par in her only outing and the switch in jockey alone is enough to put her over the top.

The firsters appear to be led by the Jeff Mullins’ trained #3 Cactus Flyer. Mullins’ win % with firster maiden claimers is only 10% however. Naturally, the works look good.

#10 Suances de Espana is an interesting firster based on sire and trainer statistics more than anything else. The sire wins 17% and Vienna wins at a 20% clip when the firster is in a claimer.

Not much to analyze here. A cross-your-fingers kind of event.

Horses: #2 Kay S., #3 Cactus Flyer, # 6 Tribal Fire, # 10 Suances de Espana.



Recap:

Race 3: #3, #5

Race 4: #3, #7

Race 5: #1, #10, #13

Race 6: #2, #9, #11

Race 7: #1, #5, #6, #7

Race 8: #2, #3, #6, #10

Now. If you're a Steve Crist and you have some extra cash, you would boil this group into what you'd call your "A" selections. (This assumes that the strategy is to just hit the thing with one ticket and not to play multiples). Keep the "A" selections to one or two horses per race. Then go to your horses that you like but who didn't make the cut, so to speak. Play each of them on a separate ticket with the "A" horses in the other five races.

On my sheet, my "A" horses would be:

Leg 1: 3,5
Leg 2: 3,7
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 2
Leg 5: 1,7
Leg 6: 2,6

Now, I see that some of you like #6 Gumption in the first leg. So you would create the following ticket:
6
3,7
1
2
1,7
2,6 which is 8 combinations.

And the idea is you keep doing that with all your "near" eliminations from your main play.

Good luck tonight.

Mark

[Cadillakin]

There is a pick 6 calculator at the Del Mar site that will assist you in putting tickets together such as Mark mentions...

http://www.dmtc.com/handicapping/pick6/index.php

[jayfree41]

Cadillakin - I look forward to Alaska trip. Sorry to miss any massive carryoverx. I appreciate your insight as always.

Mark, thanks for your generous analysis of the Hollywood card. I will review it later!!!

[Cadillakin]

#1 Seduced is eliminated on the basis of the training record, which shows the horse to be a problem child to say the least. After a couple of works in the fall of her 2-yr. old career, she was put to bed until April, where she came out flying with a :35.3 three F drill. This work apparently set her way back as we then have a series of lackluster works. By the end of May, she is showing some signs of life only to be recently-shipped West. Her lone work at Hollywood shows no indication that the new environs have helped. Hess is a low-percentage firster trainer and a low-percentage turf trainer.

Mark, I won't critique your entire post.. but there is something here that I think you may have misconstrued regarding Seduced's first work over the Keeneland track. You characterize it as a flying work and further suggest that it may have set her back...

I think you misunderstand that aspect of her training record... Most trainers will tell you once they know the gas is there, they don't need to see it again... In fact, many of them when they first see high intense speed will purposely slow and lengthen the works.. working primarily on relaxation.. as is somewhat the pattern shown by this filly..

Years ago, there was a very fast filly about to make her first start. Her name was Grenzen, owned by Doc Woolsey. He purchased her at a local sale for a pittance.. Her trainer was Loren Retelle. Woolsey also purchased a Matsadoon colt named Doonesbury for almost nothing back in the 70's. That colt made some bucks too ..Woolsey had the knack, using a measuring tape from here to there and there to here on the horses that interested him...

I knew Loren well. My wife and his sister-in law, Jeannie were good friends. Loren worked his horses slow as molasses.. I mean really slow.. but he trained some rockets in his day... Beira and others... 5f in 102.2 would be the norm for him... So, Loren is bringing Grenzen up to her first race.. She is to go that very day.. Her pattern is 38.4, 50.2, 1:03, etc.. works in that range.. very slow.. Nothing at all is showing in the Form..

In those days, I purchased the Racing Digest and it reveals that Grenzen worked 34 flat, first time on the track, some many months ago, before she bucked her shins, etc.. So, I approach Loren that day and I say.. "She's a flyer, ain't she"?... He smiles and said, "How do you know"? I said; The Racing Digest caught that 34 flat back in March" He smiles again and mumbles, "Shoot."

Grenzen raced like a bolt of lightning that day and later on became a major stakes winner.... Prior to her debut, there was but one sign that reached the public and that was many months prior in a 3f work.. Just one tiny peak at her brilliant speed.. and if the trainer had known how very fast she was.. he would have not let her show that much.. But on that day, she got away from the boy..

That very first work over the track sometimes can be very revealing.. Notice also that Seduced's first work from the gate is MUCH faster than the works that precede it.. suggesting they weren't anywhere near pulling the trigger on her in those long slow works

I'm not betting her regardless.. but I wanted to make that point about work patterns.

[andymays]

SEDUCED 06/14 Hol/ft 5f 102.1hg
Seduced and Escape Plan, from the Koriner barn worked together from the
gate. Seduced had head in front throughout while working evenly. Went in
24.4, 49 and 102.1. Looked OK while Escape Plan was on Seduced's Hip
throughout. Finished alongside late.

By the way that's from Bruno De Julio out of www.todaysracingdigest.com
or www.racingwithbruno.com


I'm going to use it. The work I have doesn't really say much. It looks like when Hess went to Keenland he made a deal to bring a few back with him.

The coldest man on the planet says #1 and #5 in the first leg!

[andymays]

In the third race the one that kind of puzzles me is #3 Shiksa. The last work said under wraps and looked good. Last raced March 28th then no works till May 31st and then June 11th. I have to throw it out because of the gap in activity but I don't feel good about throwing it out!

[markgoldie]

Cadillakin;

I take your point and understand what you are saying. Here's the thing: If the work did not set her back and if she were destined to be a sprinter anyway, why all these slow long works? Were she ticketed to be a a sprinter all along, you would logically follow the bullet with a slow work, then maybe a 4 or preferably a 5F move from the gate and we're ready to race. If she were thought to be so short that we needed all these longer works to go 6F, then she is either the most stamina-challenged horse imaginable, or only a stone moron would have worked her so fast in her first work. If we're training long slow works for manners purposes, what kind of manners do we really need to win a 6F sprint? Had we been aiming at 1 1/4 mile races on the turf, then yes.

All I'm saying is something stinks here. Something doesn't add up and I'd bet the connections would take less than 50% of the 80K purchase price for her right now, no questions asked.

That's just my opinion, though. I could easily be wrong.

Mark

Edit: As someone just pointed out, maybe she was recently sold.

[Cadillakin]

That's just my opinion, though. I could easily be wrong.

Mark
Handicappers are used to being wrong... That's the norm...

Normally, I don't dig for mysteries or reach for a 1st timer.. but this field is less than inspiring and seems lacking for sustained early speed..

That opens the door for a speed horse.. Maybe its the rail, maybe not... Maybe she breaks in back of the field and trails and shows nothing...

I'm not predicting she will run... I'm simply backing her pedigree in this context and the opportunity that a horse of good speed can have with these ordinary maidens..

[andymays]

Mark, what do you think of the inactivity of Shiksa?

The works for Seduced are about right for Hess in my opinion.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

.....races this evening are carded at the bastard distance of 7 furlongs... the 4th and the 6th. I wouldn't be too shocked to see the apple cart upset in either.

In the 4th race, the horse that jumps off the page at me is :2: LANG FIELD (8-1 ML). It is hard to fault Art Sherman's numbers with his droppers, and it appears to me as if this gelding might have the right running style for the course. His last win came off a similar layoff, and he has won at the distance before. There is a glaring caveat as Sherman is 0-11 with his route to sprinters in the last year, but one has to wear the contrarian badge for a reason. This one will be overlooked in the wagering and I will definitely include him in any/all horizontal and vertical wagers.

As for the 6th race, a lower level claimer that wouldn't surprise me to see any win, and that includes the :5: MOUNTAIN ROUTE (30-1 ML), as I can even make an obscure case for him, returning to a sprint from a route at the distance he last won at, and stepping up off the drop and an out-of-money finish. I've seen these types win before, and this races screams upset, hence you should probably single the chalk, but that in itself could be a difficult task to land on. Will it be the :2: HONORAMONGFRIENDS or :11: FOREST PHANTOM, and certainly Carla Gaines' :9: SCOTT'S SPIRIT will be taking some serious action., which I would like better if she had a go-to rider up, but it won't deter me here, and you have to love this one's style shortening up tonight if speed is holding.

My initial $24 foray might look something like this:

:5:
:2:
:10::12::13:
:9:
:5::7:
:2::10:

(This missive is intended for entertainment purposes only. Please do not wager on this information as it will ultimately cut into my winnings should I cash.:lol: )

[Cadillakin]

Cadillakin;

I take your point and understand what you are saying. Here's the thing: If the work did not set her back and if she were destined to be a sprinter anyway, why all these slow long works? Were she ticketed to be a a sprinter all along, you would logically follow the bullet with a slow work, then maybe a 4 or preferably a 5F move from the gate and we're ready to race. If she were thought to be so short that we needed all these longer works to go 6F, then she is either the most stamina-challenged horse imaginable

It has nothing to do with stamina Mark... Horses are often given easy long works to counteract the intensity and nervousness that is inherent in the breed. Training calmly and within themselves is a learning tool to let them know racing is ok.. and allowing them to gain some confidence that what they are doing won't hurt them...

A horse can be brought to fitness without showing much speed at all. Neil Drysdale can bring a horse up to run in the highest class races in the world without working them faster than 1:16. Training is not all about attaining fitness.. or displaying speed.. It is also about training them to be at ease with their environment, so they can learn their lessons and realize their potential.. Rating, running between horses, taking dirt in the face, running pinned on the rail, passing horses, leaving the gate straight and true, etc... are all functions of training that have nothing to do with showing speed, per se. All of those are best accomplished in a relaxed, easy training mode..

Long slow works are easy on the horse, both mentally and physically, and is a very common tool of many of our best trainers..

[andymays]

It has nothing to do with stamina Mark... Horses are often given easy long works to counteract the intensity and nervousness that is inherent in the breed. Training calmly and within themselves is a learning tool to let them know racing is ok.. and allowing them to gain some confidence that what they are doing won't hurt them...

A horse can be brought to fitness without showing much speed at all. Neil Drysdale can bring a horse up to run in the highest class races in the world without working them faster than 1:16. Training is not all about attaining fitness.. or displaying speed.. It is also about training them to be at ease with their environment, so they can learn their lessons and realize their potential.. Rating, running between horses, taking dirt in the face, running pinned on the rail, passing horses, leaving the gate straight and true, etc... are all functions of training that have nothing to do with showing speed, per se. All of those are best accomplished in a relaxed, easy training mode..

Long slow works are easy on the horse, both mentally and physically, and is a very common tool of many of our best trainers..

Darrell Vienna (over 40% wins at this meet) is a very good and very recent example of a guy that works em slow and has two going tonight!

[andymays]

Nobody's put their official ticket up yet.

Everyone must be waiting for mine so they can throw my picks out of their ticket! :D

I have a $16 ticket and will put it up when they're going in the gate.

[DeanT]

I made a few tickets, but I am about as confident in them as the time I emailed Charlize Theron and asked her for a date.

Tough sledding this pick 6 tonight I think. I should take a $2 one with whatever the songs are played for the post parade instead.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Nobody's put their official ticket up yet.

I continue to be told I'm a nobody.... but sometimes I just have to refute the notion. I'm somebody, damn it, I'm somebody.......


:5:
:2:
:10::12::13:
:9:
:5::7:
:2::10:
:D

[andymays]

.....races this evening are carded at the bastard distance of 7 furlongs... the 4th and the 6th. I wouldn't be too shocked to see the apple cart upset in either.

In the 4th race, the horse that jumps off the page at me is :2: LANG FIELD (8-1 ML). It is hard to fault Art Sherman's numbers with his droppers, and it appears to me as if this gelding might have the right running style for the course. His last win came off a similar layoff, and he has won at the distance before. There is a glaring caveat as Sherman is 0-11 with his route to sprinters in the last year, but one has to wear the contrarian badge for a reason. This one will be overlooked in the wagering and I will definitely include him in any/all horizontal and vertical wagers.

As for the 6th race, a lower level claimer that wouldn't surprise me to see any win, and that includes the :5: MOUNTAIN ROUTE (30-1 ML), as I can even make an obscure case for him, returning to a sprint from a route at the distance he last won at, and stepping up off the drop and an out-of-money finish. I've seen these types win before, and this races screams upset, hence you should probably single the chalk, but that in itself could be a difficult task to land on. Will it be the :2: HONORAMONGFRIENDS or :11: FOREST PHANTOM, and certainly Carla Gaines' :9: SCOTT'S SPIRIT will be taking some serious action., which I would like better if she had a go-to rider up, but it won't deter me here, and you have to love this one's style shortening up tonight if speed is holding.

My initial $24 foray might look something like this:

:5:
:2:
:10::12::13:
:9:
:5::7:
:2::10:

(This missive is intended for entertainment purposes only. Please do not wager on this information as it will ultimately cut into my winnings should I cash.:lol: )


I thought I noticed yours wasn't officially in yet. I meant no disrespect whatsoever!

[markgoldie]

Andymays;

Here's what I think about Shiksa: You have a filly who brought a lot of money as a yearling, and while most of these go down the drain anyway, I think they might be going cautious with her. They got some very encouraging works from her before her first race and they got a reasonably strong performance in that event. After that race, they did they right thing, backed off (assuming sufficient tightness) and gave her some easy works leading up to the second event. I don't make a study of trainers on this circuit, so I don't know how much of a negative sign the adding of lasix in her second start was.

I do know that the second start was a big disappointment for them as well as the betting public who made her the favorite. After that disappointment, it made sense to back way off. Do a round or two of blood work, scope her to see the status of the lungs, etc.

Now. Here's why the game is so hard to predict on the limited information we have: Either they found something correctable or they didn't. If they did, there's a good chance that we could see a good effort tonight. If they didn't, she's probably destined for the claimers.

So the gap in training could have been to rest a minor leg and/or foot problem. Or it might have been to give the lungs a chance to heal a little if she bled some.

The Ragozin Sheets guys would probably just say she bounced a little and will come right back to the first effort. Maybe, maybe not. We'll see.

Mark

[andymays]

You may be right Mark. I can't use Shiksa because of the two months of inactivity prior to her last two works. Both Clockers I have say she worked well in her last workout.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I meant no disrespect whatsoever!;) None taken! Just inserting a lil' levity, as is my nature.

[Cadillakin]

I made a few tickets, but I am about as confident in them as the time I emailed Charlize Theron and asked her for a date.


What a babe, huh..

[Hajck Hillstrom]

...of the Longshot variety.

Race3 :4: (20-1)
Race4 :2: (8-1)
Race5 :2: (20-1)
Race6 :5: (30-1)
Race7 :3: (12-1)
Race8 :10: (8-1)

Now, if this ticket hits, and you are holding it, you have swept the pool. :lol:

[andymays]

I made a few tickets, but I am about as confident in them as the time I emailed Charlize Theron and asked her for a date.

Tough sledding this pick 6 tonight I think. I should take a $2 one with whatever the songs are played for the post parade instead.


Take a shot on a small ticket but use a David vs. Goliath approach because there will be more than a few 20k tickets and many 10k and 5k tickets. Single a couple of Bombs like they're 1-5 and sit back.

[DeanT]

R1: 5 6 8
R2: 2 3
R3: 1 2 13
R4: 2
R5: 7
R6: 2 3 6 8 12

Best I can do, which ain't saying much. If I win I am emailing Charlize again.

[andymays]

A friend of mine called me earlier and I gave him a $384 ticket and he added to it. My deal is 30% after the withholding with no money from me for the ticket. I will post my $16 ticket when they're going in the gate.

:1: :5: :6:
:2: :4:
:1: :2: :10: :13:
:1: :2: :9:
:4: :7:
:2: :3: :10: :13:

$1152 I think. I hate big tickets and never play them myself anymore.

[cmoore]

Here's my ticket Fellas...I have 4 singles...

:6: / :2::3::4::7: / :9::12::13: / :9: / :3: / :12:

A Whopping 24 bucks...:D

Race 3)..:6: Gumption..I Like the More Than Ready Filly trying the turf for the first time..She has shown early speed before and in her last she ran a 97 late pace. So She's versatile and Mike will use her wisely..

Race 4).:2::3::4::7:...I have 2 early speed types and 2 closers..I threw the 6 out..A seconditis type of late with 6 starts...3 seconds and 1 third..I don't like the 5 neither.

Race 5)..:9::12::13:....The 13 showed good early pace ratings on the turf and was 2nd at the 6 furlong mark before tiring....Drops down down and shortens up..The 12 broke last and still managed to get with 3.5 lengths..Likely to improve..The nine ran a good race on June 12th pressing the pace..Second race off long layoff..Another one who could improve a lot..

Race 6)..:9: Scott's Spirit..The speed of the speed..A wire job hopefully.

Race 7)..:3:.Fug He Rat..All runners in race are E/EP style except for the 3..Solis will stalk and make his move late..

Race 8)..:12: K Note..The sire Memo has produced 5 of 10 winners in this race type at a distance less the 6 furlongs..The broodmare sire Siphon has produced 5 of 9 winners at < 6 furlongs.Both are tops figures in the distance category...Layoff factors for the sire are 299...Broodmare sire 166...Trainer 272...Average is 100 for each..

[andymays]

ACCEPTED: 09783825137292 HOL #3 $2 Pick-6 1,5,WT,2,WT,2,WT,9,WT,4,WT,2,3,10,13 <none> $ 16.00

I've been told that in Vegas they have the over/under on my ticket listed at 2 winners. Over 2 is plus 150 and under 2 is pick em. That's how much confidence they have in my picks! :D

I thought the #3 Shiksa looked good on the track and that is the one I'm worried about.

[andymays]

The #1 didn't know what the hell to do from the rail. Very Green!

We all should have singled the #5 now that it's over right?

[cmoore]

The #1 didn't know what the hell to do from the rail. Very Green!

My 6 ran good for about 4 furlongs then hit a wall..

I'm alive for 5. :lol:

[Hajck Hillstrom]

of music for the 4th race Post Parade.....

Bad, Bad Leroy Brown.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

We all should have singled the #5 now that it's over right?Some of us did..... :ThmbUp:

[andymays]

4 got completely screwed! I would have had to go 4 deep to use the 6.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

....at TVG.

Rich Perloff's $128 ticket goes 4 deep in the 5th with his remaining ticket looking like this:

:1::5::7::13:
:9:
:3:
:3::10:

[Dr Win]

r3: :5:
r4: :3:
r5: :1: :10:
r6: :10: :11:
r7: :6: :7:
r8: :2: :6: :10: :12:

[jayfree41]

hey all congrats - if you are alive in the pick 6

I am alive in the pick 4

:9: -winner
:8: :10:
:1: :5: :7:
:3: :6: :6: :10: :13:

You can't count out Quinonez sometimes (on the #9) - he's like Rosario but with not as good an agent.

[markgoldie]

Is it just me or does the speed tonight on the synth look dead?

Just in case I'm right, constructing a super play in the 6th to try to get back all this pick 6 money I already lost:

:2: :4: :7: :9: :11: // :2: :4: :7: :9: :10: :11: // :1: :2: :4: :7: :9: :10: :11: // :1: :2: :3: :4: :7: :9: :10: :11: . $62.50 for each dime.

[DeanT]

Speed seems awful, imo. The 11 in this race is probably taking serious money because of that.

[andymays]

Misery :bang:

[markgoldie]

Needed the 7 a tad closer to make any money.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Needed the 7 a tad closer to make any money.Yeah, that super was a lil' chalky.

[markgoldie]

They showed the photo for 4th and it looked like a dead heat on the computer but I guess they had their magnifying glasses out.

Anyway, we're in this deep, let's keep going.

7th trifecta:

:1: :5: :6: :7: // :1: :3: :5: :6: :7: // :1: :3: :5: :6: :7:

$36 for each dollar increment.

Biggest risk is #2 on the ticket somewhere but betting he's too cheap for this bunch.

Correction: $48 for each dollar increment.

[menifee]

I like the bomb in the 7th.

Keying the 4 in all spots in the tri.

[andymays]

I like the bomb in the 7th.

Keying the 4 in all spots in the tri.


That's who I liked. Didn't run at all. Misery :bang:

Good night all!

[markgoldie]

Bed time on the East Coast. A quick trip to the loan sharks tomorrow and I'll be back in business.

[cmoore]

Solis started the :3:'s run too late in race 7..He had the most horse left at the wire...He got into a little trouble at the top of the stretch..The 2 wins who just broke his maiden in a weak field..4-1 was very low imo..

[menifee]

That's who I liked. Didn't run at all. Misery :bang:

Good night all!

Martin needs to get to Fairplex. How do you take a horse 20 lengths back in a 6f sprint turf. Horse would not have won - but still....

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Vienna has another one in the last race Friday night. It's #10 Suances de Espana. Firster with slow training track works but only one at 6 furlongs. This one did work on the same day as Adam Suances on June 7th SA Tr.t 6f fst 1:16 3/5. Adam Suances who won thursday at 17-1 worked on the same day at the same distance in 1:19 4/5!This is a fine post you placed yesterday with outstanding results!

[andymays]

This is a fine post you placed yesterday with outstanding results!


Bet way down. Many Horseplayers are now on the Vienna train. The value has left with the train from now on.

[fmolf]

Bet way down. Many Horseplayers are now on the Vienna train. The value has left with the train from now on.
glad i did not play...was it just me or did the main track races look like the turf races?...mad dashes down the stretch...blanket finishes....

[andymays]

glad i did not play...was it just me or did the main track races look like the turf races?...mad dashes down the stretch...blanket finishes....


Last night kind of looked that way.

[Cadillakin]

There is sometimes an illusion that the track is favoring stretch runners when the speed is of poor quality.. runners who would quit over any surface...

Race 2:
Kaffienator: Horse running for 25k two months ago, now running for 8k. Needs clear lead for best. Didn't get it.. Had to duel for lead
Orientation Hall; Pressed Kafeinator all the way from disadvantaged inside position, a half length back,.. Hung on well for 3rd.

Race 4:
Principle Secret.. Tailed off in last, coming off layoff, ordinary pattern
Saint Paul .. Always quits
Soda Pop Kid.. Slightly off pace horse loops horses in front of him, carries speed all the way, and battles back against a stretch runner

Race 5:
Company Tiger; 40-1 shot, beaten 20 lengths in both prior efforts.
Moutain Guide: Recently quitting at 5.5 and 6 furlongs, now running 7
Pacific Halo: Coming off 110 day layoff. Worked only once in April, 3 times in May, and twice in June. Pressed all the way from rail. Ran well for 3rd.

Race 6
Scotts Spirit.. Stopped in stretch last 7 races, every surface, every distance.

Race 8
Horses running 1-2-3 on turn, finished 1-2-3.

So you see, sometimes a simple analysis is just that.. simple. Every single horse on the front end last night who quit had a hole or holes in them..

[DeanT]

I agree that bias is usually overused, however I do disagree with last night.

Race 2 we can chuck, but closers finished well. Top three late ranked horses were 3, 5 and 9. Came 3-9.
Race 4, the rail horse closed from dead last to finish second. Not only was he last, he was last by about five lengths at the second call. I cant find too many horses who have done that this meet.
Race 5, Cj's pace figures had the 9 as the top ranked late, and 7 as a good closer. They ran one two.
Race 6, top ranked late was 11. He won closing.

In the past few weeks these horses have not been getting a sniff. Last night they were winning, so I think there was more to it than simply an aberration. If you took a shot on some pick 6's with closers keyed after seeing race two, you could have walked away with $500k.

[cmoore]

There is sometimes an illusion that the track is favoring stretch runners when the speed is of poor quality.. runners who would quit over any surface...

Race 2:
Kaffienator: Horse running for 25k two months ago, now running for 8k. Needs clear lead for best. Didn't get it.. Had to duel for lead
Orientation Hall; Pressed Kafeinator all the way from disadvantaged inside position, a half length back,.. Hung on well for 3rd.

Race 4:
Principle Secret.. Tailed off in last, coming off layoff, ordinary pattern
Saint Paul .. Always quits
Soda Pop Kid.. Slightly off pace horse loops horses in front of him, carries speed all the way, and battles back against a stretch runner

Race 5:
Company Tiger; 40-1 shot, beaten 20 lengths in both prior efforts.
Moutain Guide: Recently quitting at 5.5 and 6 furlongs, now running 7
Pacific Halo: Coming off 110 day layoff. Worked only once in April, 3 times in May, and twice in June. Pressed all the way from rail. Ran well for 3rd.

Race 6
Scotts Spirit.. Stopped in stretch last 7 races, every surface, every distance.

Race 8
Horses running 1-2-3 on turn, finished 1-2-3.

So you see, sometimes a simple analysis is just that.. simple. Every single horse on the front end last night who quit had a hole or holes in them..

Easily said after the races..

[Sid]

Easily said after the races.
The very best time for doing post-mortems, which can be useful.

[fmolf]

The very best time for doing post-mortems, which can be useful.
i did some research on winning favorites at hollywood and found out that the 33% figure is skewed because in msw races the favorites won over 41% of the time....the other class races the number is somewhere below 30%....

[Cadillakin]

I agree that bias is usually overused, however I do disagree with last night.

Race 2 we can chuck, but closers finished well. Top three late ranked horses were 3, 5 and 9. Came 3-9.
Race 4, the rail horse closed from dead last to finish second. Not only was he last, he was last by about five lengths at the second call. I cant find too many horses who have done that this meet.
Race 5, Cj's pace figures had the 9 as the top ranked late, and 7 as a good closer. They ran one two.
Race 6, top ranked late was 11. He won closing.

In the past few weeks these horses have not been getting a sniff. Last night they were winning, so I think there was more to it than simply an aberration. If you took a shot on some pick 6's with closers keyed after seeing race two, you could have walked away with $500k.
As far as I know.. a bias is usually when horses who figured to do poorly, do well because of some kind of aberration in the track... Is bias now defined more broadly to include horses that figure well and win from various positions within the races? And how does that differ from a fair racing surface that allows all runners a good chance, providing of course, they are amongst the best contenders?

[Cadillakin]

Easily said after the races..
Easily said before the races too...

[DeanT]

As far as I know.. a bias is usually when horses who figured to do poorly, do well because of some kind of aberration in the track... Is bias now defined more broadly to include horses that figure well and win from various positions within the races? And how does that differ from a fair racing surface that allows all runners a good chance, providing of course, they are amongst the best contenders?
I play biases whenever I think they show up via some study. Computers (ie Jcapper and Dave's stuff) can help show me what is supposed to happen (eg expected wins) versus what is happening (actual wins) in a dispassionate way, using baselines for late horses and pace horses. This helps me quite a bit.

Hollywood for sprints for the meet, showing what the track has been doing over all sprints (using subsets by distance is helpful, but this tends to give me an overall look before doing more digging) shows speed is good there. I have found the track to be detrimental to late pace horses, except for last night, which kinds of sticks out. I find, as you do, we seem to see the track play very similar to dirt. The 1.0 rating HOL gets is similar to places like MTH or MNR. A fair track is rated a 2.5 where horses win from everywhere, based on ability and pace, and a closing track is rated a 5.0, where front runners do not win as much as expected.

[Cadillakin]

I play biases whenever I think they show up via some study. Computers (ie Jcapper and Dave's stuff) can help show me what is supposed to happen (eg expected wins) versus what is happening (actual wins) in a dispassionate way, using baselines for late horses and pace horses. This helps me quite a bit.

Hollywood for sprints for the meet, showing what the track has been doing over all sprints (using subsets by distance is helpful, but this tends to give me an overall look before doing more digging) shows speed is good there. I have found the track to be detrimental to late pace horses, except for last night, which kinds of sticks out. I find, as you do, we seem to see the track play very similar to dirt. The 1.0 rating HOL gets is similar to places like MTH or MNR. A fair track is rated a 2.5 where horses win from everywhere, based on ability and pace, and a closing track is rated a 5.0, where front runners do not win as much as expected.
IMO, horses who are racing in the back are usually there because they are slower than the others.. so it is no surprise that they are at a disadvantage in racing... particularly so in sprints..

I was just taking a look at Turfday Superstats.. on Hollypark routes.. Using 5-11 horse fields, there has been 137 races run

They break it down into four categories..
Wire to Wire
Stalkers
Mid Pack
Late Runners..

I didn't break it down exactly because it would take a little more math than I want to do right now.. but approximately 30% of the races are being won by the wire to wire horses.. and 20% are winning as Late Runners...

It seems fair to me.. One must always consider the horses under study before attributing bias... and as I noted in last nights card.. every single speed horse had a hole in them... so it follows they would fold and the runners behind them would run on..

One night does not make for good science.. but in reviewing the numbers, I don't see anything standing out, one way or the other... My win percentage at this meet is very high... Mostly I play speed or stalkers, on all surfaces..

[DeanT]

I cant play today, but we will have a better idea after today's card is run. Keep and eye on it and let me know if you see a pattern with the swoop type finishes, or the staggered speed ones.

[Cadillakin]

Below are screen shots of Hollypark Sprints provided by Turfday SuperStats.. I don't think Mr Selvin will mind this display of his data.. at least I hope not.. It seems to be that when sprinting.. a stalking position is probably best.. but I notice also that in full fields, mid packers and late runners are fairly represented. Speed horses seem to be consistently represented at all field sizes..

I see no indications of bias in this data.. Of course, others may see it differently.

http://i41.tinypic.com/34xnh3s.jpg

http://i42.tinypic.com/jqpzig.jpg

[cmoore]

Easily said before the races too...

Then why didn't you???