Pick 6 = Carryover Hollywood Thursday

[jayfree41]

What a nice carryover for Thursday - but I challenge anyone to find a single in the card = very difficult sequences. I predict another carryover into Friday.

[andymays]

How about a $24 ticket 3 by 2 by 1 by 1 by 1 by 2!

[Cadillakin]

Interesting that Chris Kotulak just said on TVG that he feels the pick 6 is very hittable.. He asserts that the 15 horse in the last, Senor Affortunado is a single - who he is "all over".

By the way, I hate that style of horse breaking from the outside in sprints.. He's not fast enough to outrun most of them, but just fast enough to be parked 4 wide..

I tend to agree with you that it is very tough to find a legit single in the sequence.. After I saw your posting, I went over it again.. I couldn't find any horses whom I assessed with a very high percentage of winning.

I've got a couple I might bet if the pricing is generous.. but they aren't qualified to be singles..

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I tend to agree with you that it is very tough to find a legit single in the sequence.. After I saw your posting, I went over it again.. I couldn't find any horses whom I assessed with a very high percentage of winning.

I've got a couple I might bet if the pricing is generous.. but they aren't qualified to be singles..You've piqued my curiosity now.... time to take a look.

[miesque]

I used one single on my ticket and it was :1: Sweatpea in Race 6, not that I think she is a lock in any way, but that last race of hers made an impression when I was watching it in real time which was reinforced upon watching the replay and there was no horse in any other race that even remotely close to giving any confidence in singling.

[cmoore]

Interesting that Chris Kotulak just said on TVG that he feels the pick 6 is very hittable.. He asserts that the 15 horse in the last, Senor Affortunado is a single - who he is "all over".

By the way, I hate that style of horse breaking from the outside in sprints.. He's not fast enough to outrun most of them, but just fast enough to be parked 4 wide..

I tend to agree with you that it is very tough to find a legit single in the sequence.. After I saw your posting, I went over it again.. I couldn't find any horses whom I assessed with a very high percentage of winning.

I've got a couple I might bet if the pricing is generous.. but they aren't qualified to be singles..

I like outside speed..Jockey gets a good look to see whats going on...Perfect spot to sit behind the duel up front if there is one..

[Hajck Hillstrom]

1x1x1x2x2x3.... My three singles would be:

Race 4 :12: BEST OF INTENTIONS
Race 5 :6: DAILIES
Race 7 :8: SKY CAPE (with a better start today)

.... and that is my 2 cents worth. Hmmm, it appears as though I have a thing for the female trainers today. Gaines, Walsh, and Mulhall....

[jayfree41]

It's true Cadillakin - the 15th horse in the last leg does have ROSARIO, but a difficult post to close from indeed. Nonetheless, the race is chock-full of speed - helping his cause.

After further consideration - I could see the pick 6 hit - but it's still a question mark - in the 6th race, for instance - if Bejarano and Mullins DON'T wire it (the #1 horse) - any single horse could close and win.

Good luck all. I will be making a small stab at it.

[cmoore]

Here's a single..Holly race 4..:11: Jacob's Little Bro..An In Excess runner shortening up and back on the dirt..Very good workout tab..

[jayfree41]

I have decided NOT to play the pick 6 - but just so my handicapping doesn't go into thin air:

3rd race - wide open.
4th race - Lots of speed setting up Papoose #8 and Puype MSW dropper #11
5th race - #3 Frankel - can close without much speed up front and #5 Wire possibility.
6th race- #1 Bejarano - Mullins to wire it, but #8 Quinonez to pick up potential pieces.
7th race
Interesting stat - Mike Mitchell (#2 horse) - Layoff sprint turf race after TOP BEYER - 1 for 14 - pretty bad stat for him. I'd go with the #8 Bejarano to close on the speed or #5 Nakatani - surprise horse.
8th race
Things should set up for #15 - but that post really sucks as Cadillakin mentions above.

Good luck folks.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

...utilizing Theresia's Singleton along with my 3....

A $50 ticket:

:2::4::5::6::7:
:12:
:6:
:1:
:8:
:2::6::7::13::15:

...hence making the :1: or :3: outstanding opportunities in the opening leg. :lol:

[Cadillakin]

I like outside speed..Jockey gets a good look to see whats going on...Perfect spot to sit behind the duel up front if there is one..
Except he isn't outside speed.. He is outside no-speed.. usually positioned about mid-pack.. or slightly further back.

[andymays]

5th Race I like the #4 because she’s sharp and the speed of the race!
6th Race I like the #5 because she was entered above her conditions last and didn’t get beat by much. Think the pace will be fast and the race will set up well for her!
7th Race I like the #5 because he showed a form reversal in last showing speed when he never had before and ran a big #. Think he will stalk a fast pace and be their at the wire! The #1 and #2 are questionable because of poor form in last for the #1 and the layoff for the #2!

I played a small ticket so I can't get hurt and I have the prices as singles to kill the giants(big tickets) if I can.


ACCEPTED: 35898940285224 HOL #3 $2 Pick-6 5,6,WT,8,11,12,WT,4,WT,5,WT,5,WT,3,7,15 <none> $ 36.00

[jayfree41]

Correct on the #15 horse - no speed - he seems to be the lone closer in the race.

[miesque]

The ticket I ended up with for $96

:1: :6:
:5: :9: :12:
:3: :8:
:1:
:2: :8:
:7: :15:

[cmoore]

only got the first 3 done...

:2::6: / :11: / :8:

[Hajck Hillstrom]

OK... got the $38 horse home.... now for the Singletons....

Ladies, show us your stuff!

[jayfree41]

Well looks like we will have a CARRYOVER!-

the longest shot on the board opens it up - the #7 at 18 to 1

Good luck all on your 5/6's. Be back tomorrow for more shenanigans and what should be a juicy pot.

[cmoore]

...utilizing Theresia's Singleton along with my 3....

A $50 ticket:

:2::4::5::6::7:
:12:
:6:
:1:
:8:
:2::6::7::13::15:

...hence making the :1: or :3: outstanding opportunities in the opening leg. :lol:

You got the big one to start it off..:jump:

[jayfree41]

p.s. Rosario is a stud. Fantastic jock.

[andymays]

5th Race I like the #4 because she’s sharp and the speed of the race!
6th Race I like the #5 because she was entered above her conditions last and didn’t get beat by much. Think the pace will be fast and the race will set up well for her!
7th Race I like the #5 because he showed a form reversal in last showing speed when he never had before and ran a big #. Think he will stalk a fast pace and be their at the wire! The #1 and #2 are questionable because of poor form in last for the #1 and the layoff for the #2!

I played a small ticket so I can't get hurt and I have the prices as singles to kill the giants(big tickets) if I can.


ACCEPTED: 35898940285224 HOL #3 $2 Pick-6 5,6,WT,8,11,12,WT,4,WT,5,WT,5,WT,3,7,15 <none> $ 36.00

The coldest man on the planet is still cold! That race was sooooo ugly. Unless you had the #7!

[Cadillakin]

That was one of the races I was taking a look at to bet...

Life by RR, I thought might have a shot to take these all the way... But I also realized she might do the el-foldo too.. I put her at 6-1, like the linemaker..

Good thing all the dummies bet her down to half that price... So, this dummy (me) saved some bucks..

[Hajck Hillstrom]

...had :7: TIDAL DANCE on top of their Race Summary.

I took a hard look and Rosario up made me utilize him and his 18-1 price tag.

Going 5 deep was worth catching that price, but now the hard part begins.

Theresia, if the racing gods are smiling, there is a bonus in it for ya!

[Cadillakin]

p.s. Rosario is a stud. Fantastic jock.
Yep. Powerful.

[Cadillakin]

...utilizing Theresia's Singleton along with my 3....

A $50 ticket:

:2::4::5::6::7:
:12:
:6:
:1:
:8:
:2::6::7::13::15:

...hence making the :1: or :3: outstanding opportunities in the opening leg. :lol:
Great start..

I've hit a number of pick 6's over the years.. When I spread such as you did in that first leg, and a favored horse comes in, it's usually a bad omen.

One can almost sense they aren't keyed-in when that occurs.. But when you get that price, as you hoped for, the world looks pretty rosy for the next 20 minutes...

[Hajck Hillstrom]

the world looks pretty rosy for the next 20 minutes...I did note a certain spring in the step.....

I do like that the :12: BEST OF INTENTIONS, (of which I have nothing but) is favored in both the Pik3 and Pik4 pools.

[andymays]

...had :7: TIDAL DANCE on top of their Race Summary.

I took a hard look and Rosario up made me utilize him and his 18-1 price tag.

Going 5 deep was worth catching that price, but now the hard part begins.

Theresia, if the racing gods are smiling, there is a bonus in it for ya!


Best of Luck!

[andymays]

I've had Vienna on all his other winners at the meet. This ones works were way too slow. The others had slow works on the SA training track but this ones were extra slow!

[cmoore]

...had :7: TIDAL DANCE on top of their Race Summary.

I took a hard look and Rosario up made me utilize him and his 18-1 price tag.

Going 5 deep was worth catching that price, but now the hard part begins.

Theresia, if the racing gods are smiling, there is a bonus in it for ya!
sire gets an 8.1 AWD also..top figure by far..

[Cadillakin]

Adam Suances... I could have had that horse..
.
.
.
.
.
.
If I went 9 deep

[cmoore]

I've had Vienna on all his other winners at the meet. This ones works were way too slow. The others had slow works on the SA training track but this ones were extra slow!

I thought the same thing Andy..Works were slow..Don't know too much about the sire Suances..The one thing I did notice..The trainer got a 530 layoff factor for bringing horses back longer then 60 days..Average being 100..Here's the link..http://www.breedingwinners.com/aspspecial/pdfdisplay.asp?filename=racereports/20090618-HOL-T.PDF

[andymays]

The times seem a little slower than normal for this meet. Did they dig it up a little for the weekend? I'm always suspicious!

[Cadillakin]

I did note a certain spring in the step.....

I do like that the :12: BEST OF INTENTIONS, (of which I have nothing but) is favored in both the Pik3 and Pik4 pools.
You made a good selection. He was well clear of the others for second. It's always good when your horses are firing, even if you didn't cash.

[andymays]

I thought the same thing Andy..Works were slow..Don't know too much about the sire Suances..The one thing I did notice..The trainer got a 530 layoff factor for bringing horses back longer then 60 days..Average being 100..Here's the link..http://www.breedingwinners.com/aspspecial/pdfdisplay.asp?filename=racereports/20090618-HOL-T.PDF


For anyone that doesn't know the training track at Santa Anita is inside the turf course. It has very tight turns and a 6f work is a two turn work. Vienna has always liked the training track.

[riskman]

breedingwinners.com had the 9 on top.

[4] 9 ADAM SUANCES
11 JACOB'S LITTLE BRO
8 PAPOOSE LA MOOSE

http://www.breedingwinners.com/aspspecial/pdfdisplay.asp?filename=dailypicks/dpDailyPicks-HOL-20090618.PDF

[riskman]

Sorry ---did not see the posting by C.Moore

[cmoore]

Sorry ---did not see the posting by C.Moore

That 530 layoff figure is why he chose him..

[miesque]

Well the good news is the real longshot in my Pick 6 won. The bad news is I was kicked out on the first leg and was too busy to make a win bet on the horse.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

....but the :9: ADAM SUANCES, was atop the Brisnet Late Pace last race category with a number 6 points higher than the second fastest closer, making him a contender in my methodology. My search of a single caused me to discount this $38 horse I would have normally used.

Time to take the blinkers off and play a $30 Pik4.

:1::4::6:
:1::5:
:8:
:2::6::7::13::15:

[jayfree41]

i took a small stab at pick 4 for fun

1 3 5/
1/
1 5 7 8/
9, 15/

$24 sad little bucks.

good luck all. Welcome back Pedroza! Wow. Yes those works sucked but he almost wired it: Vienna is hot!

[andymays]

....but the :9: ADAM SUANCES, was atop the Brisnet Late Pace last race category with a number 6 points higher than the second fastest closer, making him a contender in my methodology. My search of a single caused me to discount this $38 horse I would have normally used.

Time to take the blinkers off and play a $30 Pik4.

:1::4::6:
:1::5:
:8:
:2::6::7::13::15:


First Time Starter!

[Hajck Hillstrom]

First Time Starter!??? He raced at Golden Gate last year.

[andymays]

??? He raced at Golden Gate last year.


My error you're right GG May 25th 2008 finished 7th out of 8.

[andymays]

Vienna has another one in the last race Friday night. It's #10 Suances de Espana. Firster with slow training track works but only one at 6 furlongs. This one did work on the same day as Adam Suances on June 7th SA Tr.t 6f fst 1:16 3/5. Adam Suances who won thursday at 17-1 worked on the same day at the same distance in 1:19 4/5!

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Vienna has another one in the last race Friday night. It's #10 Suances de Espana. Firster with slow training track works but only one at 6 furlongs. This one did work on the same day as Adam Suances on June 7th SA Tr.t 6f fst 1:16 3/5. Adam Suances who won thursday at 17-1 worked on the same day at the same distance in 1:19 4/5!Good stuff! Noted.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

The ticket I ended up with for $96

:1: :6:
:5: :9: :12:
:3: :8:
:1:
:2: :8:
:7: :15:

Here is hoping you get a couple of consolations and enough to play back tomorrow night with an aggressive ticket!

[andymays]

The ticket I ended up with for $96

:1: :6:
:5: :9: :12:
:3: :8:
:1:
:2: :8:
:7: :15:


Good Luck Miesque! Hope you get 5!

[Cadillakin]

Here is hoping you get a couple of consolations and enough to play back tomorrow night with an aggressive ticket!
Consolations will pay a ton today!

[andymays]

It carry's over to everyone except the 9! #9 pays $522,957

#7 pays $1002 for 5

#15 pays $1419 for 5

[Cadillakin]

It carry's over to everyone except the 9! #9 pays $522,957

#7 pays $1002 for 5

#15 pays $1419 for 5
I'm surprised.. I thought those would pay at least twice that much..

I thought it was a very tough day to get 5 winners.. Congrats to Miesque for getting this far.

[andymays]

I think a lot of people singled the last winner in the 7th!

[cmoore]

It carry's over to everyone except the 9! #9 pays $522,957

#7 pays $1002 for 5

#15 pays $1419 for 5
I'm pretty sure u got it..It's a head BOB!!!!!

[Dr Win]

:6: :15: :bang:

[cmoore]

It carry's over to everyone except the 9! #9 pays $522,957

#7 pays $1002 for 5

#15 pays $1419 for 5

miesque

Ok..You got the photo..now it's time to get by the objection..

[miesque]

I am watching the replay and I don't think its enough for him to come down.

[andymays]

How lame is Ken Rudulph. The man is just not competent to comment on anything serious.

Good Job Miesque!

[cmoore]

miesque

Ok..You got the photo..now it's time to get by the objection..

What a race for Miesque...Are you going to let it ride tomorrow night???:lol:

[DeanT]

Great handicapping Theresia.

Oh, and the next time I say to myself "I reallllly need this horse to win", I will think of the dude that had the nine in the last leg today for the whole shebang.

[andymays]

What a nice carryover for Thursday - but I challenge anyone to find a single in the card = very difficult sequences. I predict another carryover into Friday.



I'm glad you put this up for today. We might as well do it again for tomorrow!

[Dr Win]

Congratulation to Miesque !!! ~˙·٠•●·‘`·.¸¸.·´¯`·...¸><)))º>

[miesque]

What a race for Miesque...Are you going to let it ride tomorrow night???:lol:

:D No, unfortunately I just don't have the time to properly prepare since I wasn't planning on playing tomorrow's card and I have 12 races on the Saturday card at Colonial Downs to cap since I am heading over there for the Colonial Turf Cup.

[miesque]

Thanks everyone for helping to root me on, much appreciated. :)

Hopefully I will do as or almost as well when I am actually at Hollywood Park in three weeks. :D

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Nicely done, Theresia.

Next time, let's syndicate a ticket. (I'm dangerous when spreading 5 deep) :lol: :lol:

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Our tickets combined would have only cost $1,080, and if we went only two deep in the final leg, the ticket comes in at $432.

Over half a million? I'd be happy to spend my quarter mil contributing my one with your five at a cost of $216. :D