andicap
05-06-2003, 05:03 PM
I have never been very good at keeping records -- a real personal failure that I hope to conquer this year.
Anyway, the recent PA contest was ready made for record keeping
and the results fascinated me. I don't post them here to brag because
58 races sure as hell ain't a legitimate sample, only something
to build on. But it is encouraging
What's weird is that with all the problems you would think the BRIS figures have, I still do well using them The PA tournament gave them a good test and for 5 weeks (plus the 2 qualifying rounds where I played 4 more cards profitably) I made money. It makes me think, would I do better using my formulas with better figures -- like Colts Neck or HTR?
In the win category, there were 58 races. If I passed a race where my top two contenders were both below 3-1 -- a common sense move -- I had 50 bettable races.
Betting horses at 3-1 and over I hit at a 23.7% rate for an ROI of 33%.
And that includes one race where a 30-1 shot had one of my top numbers, but I inexplicably didn't use it. (ah, human error, you can never correct for that.) I hit nothing over 6-1 and still had a profit. Discouraging and encouraging at the same time!! Should I abstain from long shots? I'll do more testing and see. Besides if I had pulled the trigger on the $60 horse that would have changed everything.
Other interesting findings
-- 1 way exactas. enourmously profitable on a very low hit rate: (10%). Interestingly, boxing my top two fared much worse as the reverse exacta only broke even. Again, probably a factor of a very small sample.
-- Place betting was profitable 22% on odds 3-1 and up.
-- My biggest profits came from the rolling pik-3s with the simple 2x2x2.
-- My worst day was on the sloppy track card although I still hit a few pik-3s.
-- I did just as well or better with so-called "chaotic" races like maidens and cheap claimers than with higher class allowances and stakes. I believe bad races might be easier because there are so many lousy horses to eliminate and some of these horses bounce more easily. I also feel more in tune with the form cycles of maidens.
-- My top two decisions were often based on odds -- I would purposely put a favorite in a lower spot to try for a higher payoff in the tournament. Would I handicap the same way when playing with serious money?
Due to lack of time, I used no track bias or in-depth trainer handicapping (other than what's on the BRIS pps). Would spending the extra hour per day on bias/trainer help me that much more at the risk of sleeping through my work day?
-- I handicapped in a two-hour period rather than between the races as I often do when I go to Belmont. This worked out much much better.
I feel I am at a crossroads in my handicapping where I want to get much more serious about it -- the tournament was extremely encouraging to me although I failed miserbly to help my team win since I hit no longshots or big pik 3s.
Again, I'm not trying to brag, just trying to decide how to proceed from here to best use my time. Another problem: I can't sit in front of the PC and look at the odds either during the week or on weekends. Can I use the ML? (just bet on horses 4-1 and up for example).
Research often brings more questions than answers, that's for sure.
Anyway, the recent PA contest was ready made for record keeping
and the results fascinated me. I don't post them here to brag because
58 races sure as hell ain't a legitimate sample, only something
to build on. But it is encouraging
What's weird is that with all the problems you would think the BRIS figures have, I still do well using them The PA tournament gave them a good test and for 5 weeks (plus the 2 qualifying rounds where I played 4 more cards profitably) I made money. It makes me think, would I do better using my formulas with better figures -- like Colts Neck or HTR?
In the win category, there were 58 races. If I passed a race where my top two contenders were both below 3-1 -- a common sense move -- I had 50 bettable races.
Betting horses at 3-1 and over I hit at a 23.7% rate for an ROI of 33%.
And that includes one race where a 30-1 shot had one of my top numbers, but I inexplicably didn't use it. (ah, human error, you can never correct for that.) I hit nothing over 6-1 and still had a profit. Discouraging and encouraging at the same time!! Should I abstain from long shots? I'll do more testing and see. Besides if I had pulled the trigger on the $60 horse that would have changed everything.
Other interesting findings
-- 1 way exactas. enourmously profitable on a very low hit rate: (10%). Interestingly, boxing my top two fared much worse as the reverse exacta only broke even. Again, probably a factor of a very small sample.
-- Place betting was profitable 22% on odds 3-1 and up.
-- My biggest profits came from the rolling pik-3s with the simple 2x2x2.
-- My worst day was on the sloppy track card although I still hit a few pik-3s.
-- I did just as well or better with so-called "chaotic" races like maidens and cheap claimers than with higher class allowances and stakes. I believe bad races might be easier because there are so many lousy horses to eliminate and some of these horses bounce more easily. I also feel more in tune with the form cycles of maidens.
-- My top two decisions were often based on odds -- I would purposely put a favorite in a lower spot to try for a higher payoff in the tournament. Would I handicap the same way when playing with serious money?
Due to lack of time, I used no track bias or in-depth trainer handicapping (other than what's on the BRIS pps). Would spending the extra hour per day on bias/trainer help me that much more at the risk of sleeping through my work day?
-- I handicapped in a two-hour period rather than between the races as I often do when I go to Belmont. This worked out much much better.
I feel I am at a crossroads in my handicapping where I want to get much more serious about it -- the tournament was extremely encouraging to me although I failed miserbly to help my team win since I hit no longshots or big pik 3s.
Again, I'm not trying to brag, just trying to decide how to proceed from here to best use my time. Another problem: I can't sit in front of the PC and look at the odds either during the week or on weekends. Can I use the ML? (just bet on horses 4-1 and up for example).
Research often brings more questions than answers, that's for sure.