TVG analysts on record.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Now, I'm just throwing this out there to forum members that might have some interest in this concept.

Allow me to preface this idea with the fact we all know how difficult it is to post one's picks in advance on races one may never consider playing, but with a public posting should come some degree of responsibility. If a TVG subscriber can click on an anylist's ticket and wager on it accordingly, I think it might benefit all to see just how well those picks do, i.e. hit rate and ROI.

I am proposing that I set up a site where daily tabulations of all TVG analysts are tallied. This will require a daily observation of all tickets posted by TVG analysts on their web site, and an accumulative record of those tickets.

It is my belief that if analysts are held accountable for their postings, they will do a better job. A "watchdog" site, as it were, might be a positive for all.

Any suggestions or interest in such a site? I have way too much time on my hands these days, and am curious if anyone would share my curiosity in the results of such a program?

This being said, Betfair might change the entire program format rendering the program moot, but in the meantime, would anyone click on such a site once every couple of weeks to see how the TVG analysts are doing? :) If for no better reason than a smile?

[slew101]

I think you'd get a ton of hits on such a site. Not to knock the pickers, like you said, tough and thankless job. But just to see how they are doing.

I always thought TVG wasted too much time on Pick 4 and Pick 6 tickets. I think Pick 3s might offer more value, or just focusing on key races/horses that the hosts might like that day.

This being said, Betfair might change the entire program format rendering the program moot, but in the meantime, would anyone click on such a site once every couple of weeks to see how the TVG analysts are doing? :) If for no better reason than a smile?

[Bison]

Why limit it to TVG analysts?
There are a lot of really bad race analysts out there.
Call them all out for what they are. The Good Bad and the Ugly.

[slew101]

That would take a lot of work. I often wanted to chart Mike Watchmaker's stakes plays each weekend in the summer to see his strike rate since he often played longshots. But since I don't buy the Form much anymore, I don't always see his plays.

Why limit it to TVG analysts?
There are a lot of really bad race analysts out there.
Call them all out for what they are. The Good Bad and the Ugly.

[Marshall Bennett]

Go for it !! May put an end to Matt Carothers and his " aggresive " singles on his pick4 / pick6 tickets . When he see's , and knows everyone else can see his piss poor ROI , maybe he'll think twice about screwing the public .

[the little guy]

Here's an idea.....why don't you all give your daily picks as well so that they can be compared to all these public handicappers you want to call out.

[slew101]

I would like to see a "spot play" kinda format. Don't force it every day, but have Matt or someone else have their key horse list and list the horse when it runs. Problem would be TVG would want him to list a play every day, and that's not how it should work.

I think Dave Litfin did that at Saratoga in 2007 for DRF, but he didn't do it last year for whatever reason. Picking a day in advance was often tough, but most of his plays did end up running.

Many of us utilize the equibase virtual stable for that type of format. You can sometimes go a week without your horses showing up, then 4 can show up on one weekend.

[wisconsin]

Go for it !! May put an end to Matt Carothers and his " aggresive " singles on his pick4 / pick6 tickets . When he see's , and knows everyone else can see his piss poor ROI , maybe he'll think twice about screwing the public .


How is he screwing the public? Sounds to me like you play his picks. Nobody is twisting anyones arm off on TVG. I highly doubt that the majority of players are plaing anyones pick 4 selections on a regular basis, or the pick 4 for that matter. Most players don't have the bankroll to stand it. If you think he is screwing the public, shame on you. If you know his actual roi, you obviously are on a witch hunt. You would need to hold every picker anywhere from tout sheets to newspapers to DRF to on-track hosts in the same light.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Here's an idea.....why don't you all give your daily picks as well so that they can be compared to all these public handicappers you want to call out.An excellent call. :eek: I wanted to do this, but didn't want it to appear that I was creating a forum to do so. My caveat would be that I would only submit tickets that I actually play, but would adhere to the same restrictions (i.e. $50 limits, $144 Pik6 limits).

[Marshall Bennett]

Here's an idea.....why don't you all give your daily picks as well so that they can be compared to all these public handicappers you want to call out.
We're not getting paid to prepare tickets and offer them to a television audience . I beleive they should be held to a higher standard . I'm not saying they're all bad either , but a few of them are , and I see nothing wrong with their audience knowing who they are .

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Why limit it to TVG analysts?
There are a lot of really bad race analysts out there.
Call them all out for what they are. The Good Bad and the Ugly.I would have all the TVG analysts selections available to me on a single site, but wouldn't have a problem with creating an industry observation if online sites were provided to me. I'm not targeting TVG analysts with this concept, but am addressing my "Thin veil of ignorance" philosophy. All big hits will be duly noted in hope that the general public, and this forum as well, will take note of such opportunities.

[JimG]

Why publicize how poorly public handicappers perform? Any thoughtful, experienced player knows their roi will be negative as it has been pointed out it is very difficult to lay picks out there for every race well in advance. I want the masses following those picks and thinking "today is going to be the day". After all, we are betting against each other and the more occasional players follow the "experts" that rely on conventional methods, the better.

Jim

[wisconsin]

We're not getting paid to prepare tickets and offer them to a television audience . I beleive they should be held to a higher standard . I'm not saying they're all bad either , but a few of them are , and I see nothing wrong with their audience knowing who they are .

The are not getting paid for their picks, per se. They are paid as educated TV personalities, most with a journal or broadcasting degree, who happen to be hosting a racing show. Most of them have experience on-track as well. If you have sour grapes over crummy picks, remember that you are not paying them, TVG is. Take their picks with a grain of salt.

[Marshall Bennett]

The are not getting paid for their picks, per se. They are paid as educated TV personalities, most with a journal or broadcasting degree, who happen to be hosting a racing show. Most of them have experience on-track as well. If you have sour grapes over crummy picks, remember that you are not paying them, TVG is. Take their picks with a grain of salt.
I already do . Okay , they're payed a salary , and they're offering tickets on-line at their website . What's the problem with holding them accountable as to where they stand as a handicapper ? Perhaps not all horse players are as wise and intelligent as yourself , perhaps they're new or just not as experienced as you . They choose to put their money in their hands by playing their tickets . I see no problem in having credentials offered to them as well .

[Sid]

If any tourists or clueless habituals do play the TVG analysts' picks, they will do much better than if they had not.

On the whole TVG's talking heads are quite decent as public handicappers go.

It has been decades since I've bet as much as $2 because of someone else's opinion, but I enjoy listening to -- or reading -- informed opinion nonetheless . . . not to hear WHO the picker has picked, but to hear WHY the picker has made that pick. That's the way any horseplayer should listen and react, whether listening to some anointed expert or to the railbird sitting next to you.

In truth, I don't know any experienced horseplayer who would disagree with anything I've said in this post.

As someone else suggested, the biggest beef I have with TVG is its unmitigated insistence on touting the pick six and the pick four. Idiotic. If someone really is deep into conspiracy theories about racetracks having these guys' ears regarding what to say on the air (I am not), that would be it. I am surprised all their breathless hype about lottery wagers hasn't created a return of the twin trifecta.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

....Nick Hines posted 2 Pik4's today at different tracks, a single Pik3, and a dime superfecta.

One of the Pik4's were of the fiddy cent variety, costing $36, the dollar Pik4 cost $48, the Pik3 came in at $16, and the dime super at $7.20.

$97.20 wagered on the day. Let's see his outcome in a later thread.

Seriously.... it is my hope that he posts a return of four figs.

[Sid]

....Nick Hines posted 2 Pik4's today at different tracks, a single Pik3, and a dime superfecta.
Cursory observation tells me that ALL the announcers ARE REQUIRED to pick pick fours and such, and I believe they ALL pick a horse to WIN in every race. If I were paying any attention to these guys, which I am not, it would be on their WIN picks.

Which you don't mention.

I don't watch TVG much, because of the pick six / pick four mania. Tell me, now that Nick is a TV studio type, does he tear the joint up after a win the way he did when he was a trainer?

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Cursory observation tells me that ALL the announcers ARE REQUIRED to pick pick fours and such, and I believe they ALL pick a horse to WIN in every race. If I were paying any attention to these guys, which I am not, it would be on their WIN picks.

Which you don't mention.My scrutiny is the postings that the analysts place on their website that the public can access and are utilized to drive handle. I haven't subscribed to TVG for over a year now, but plan to re-up soon, so following their race by race top selection might be arduous, albeit available in the race by race tabulation of their horizontal wagers.

Allow me to reiterate that my position is to illustrate the positive, not accentuate the negative. Since the programming format is to drive horizontal wagers, the public should realize that the hit rate will be extremely low and the ROI minimal. The strength of the illustration will lie in the potential of the play, which will be realized.

Sadly, Nick Hines was one of the on-air analysts I found somewhat unwatchable as his persona made me uncomfortable. He seems to have a chip on his shoulder at times, and though I truly admire his passion, his perspective is not one that gels well with mine.

[Marshall Bennett]

Tell me, now that Nick is a TV studio type, does he tear the joint up after a win the way he did when he was a trainer?
No , he breaks down in tears , the way he did as a trainer . :lol:

[InsideThePylons-MW]

It is my belief that if analysts are held accountable for their postings, they will do a better job. A "watchdog" site, as it were, might be a positive for all.

I hope you think it will stop them from doing things like this.......


8-26-2008 OK....Matt C should be fired and there is no argument against it

2nd race Prairie Meadows $1 P-4

Matt gives out his ticket and then starts explaining his selections.

2nd race he says he is using #1 Incidental Affair and Simon informs him that Incidental Affair is scratched but the other half of the entry is still in......

Matt says "that's good, I get Clay Hill and we all know that's good because when a trainer scratches one half of an entry, that means the one still racing is very live"

Are you kidding me you moron?

The entry was the 5/2 fav on the ML and Incidental Affair would have been 8/5. Clay Hill, the remaining half of the entry had no chance and went off at 14-1 (would have been more but there are other dolts out there who don't know(but they aren't getting paid as experts or all-stars))

Well Clay Hill got distanced as expected and Matt burned up more of the flocks money because he can't get the scratches.

The worst part is that after being told he made an error, he justified it with a blatant lie that was criminal.

[Cadillakin]

Sadly, Nick Hines was one of the on-air analysts I found somewhat unwatchable as his persona made me uncomfortable. He seems to have a chip on his shoulder at times, and though I truly admire his passion, his perspective is not one that gels well with mine.
I don't see that in Nick.. the chip on the shoulder. He's a good hearted dude.. I can tell that much..

When I watch him, I'm just very grateful that he is on the Horse Channel and not teaching the kids English Grammar...

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I don't see that in Nick.. the chip on the shoulder. He's a good hearted dude.. I can tell that much.. Check him out when he is on set with Todd Schrupp. It is definitely evident then. I want to like the Sarge, I really do, but my senses won't allow me. Maybe it isn't the chip on his shoulder as much as the defensive posture he takes at times.

[andymays]

The guys just hyper sensitive and extremely competitive! He has learned to lighten up quite a bit over the last year.

Nick Hines is a good guy. His handicapping has improved a ton since he started using the sheets.

[cj's dad]

OTM Al,

I was one day off :lol:

[Canarsie]

Let me start a long winded post here and I've been at this game a long time and remember the Lawton tip sheets and Belmont and Aqueduct in their heyday.

First their main ambition is to make you gamble as an ADW they make most of their money from that. The more picks they give out the more you may wager as least in their opinion. A person who bets every race won't be gambling more than a few months at best unless they hit a huge gimmick by mistake. You can't win win an 18%+ takeout doing that. If they still charge a surcharge for wagers I compare it to usury fees it's criminal. I would be interested in how many people on here actually use them I live in NJ and stuck with NJBets by law.

The thing that annoys me the most (I can't believe I pay $5 a month for it) is that Ken Rudolph constantly says "bet, bet, bet". Then in another instance he says "I have to replenish my account" basically saying I'm broke and a lousy capper. He annoys me the most as by far there is no bigger "pimp" on TVG to wager even though I don't mind the rest of his act. At least Matt Carothers says he only bets the NY and California circuits but he's forced to give picks on all races. Do you really think when it's busy they give more than a few minutes to cap a race at PI or FL?

See how they brag that they now handle Churchill and Calder? It's all about wagering but they don't make picks for those tracks because I bet their cut is way lower then lets say Hollywood or Belmont. They even stated the handle Meadows Harness a place that does about $200,000 handle a night with 15 races.

Maybe if you are going to track them it can be done by track my guess is their minus ROI would be better at Belmont or Hollywood compared to lets say even Monmouth ( they show them on tape delay a lot :bang: ) and see how that plays out.

A big thanks to those who are doing the tracking it's a very interesting subject especially for people who are passionate about the game which many are here on PA.

One last thing that's a little off topic I guess. If I had to meet one guy on TVG it would be Rich Perloff as he takes the time to explain things and gives logic into his picks. Christina Olivares is a real good interviewer (not fluff) and imo has a future with ESPN down the road.

[cj's dad]

As you stated " have been in the game a long time" what is your reason to care what the analysts at TVG pick as their selections ?? WHAT do you care ?

I recommend that you use TVG as an outlet to watch races as they occur live in most cases or occasionally on tape delay.

[craigbraddick]

Firstly, do not construe this as someone not as prominent in the horse race broadcasting business as the personalities on TVG are, having a go at anyone because I am jealous.

The TVG presenters are covering racing from many tracks, if they indepthly study for say two of the six tracks they might be covering in a shift, they would have done hours of prep work. My prep work for each day here at Arapahoe doing picks, the color charts, keeping stats, watching workouts easily works out to 4-5 hours a day, not including on air time.

If I were to work at TVG the chances are, I could only really concentrate on being serious about my handicapping at one meeting per day and the other picks for the other races would be mainly for entertainment value. Yet, if a presenter admitted that, he would probably be berated online for not working hard enough along with his other duties.

I would love to work for TVG and if I had any sway on the presentation of my shift, I would have the presenters dressed more casually and explain throughout the show my serious picks today are for the meeting at XXXXXX but we will also be looking at YYYYY and ZZZZZ and maybe we can pick a few winners by comparing form notes and how the horses look on their way to post.

A different approach, 2 guys (or ladies) sitting together and talking racing and including the viewers in as their friends with the format I suggested above would attract more people than besuited people pretending to be an expert on everything from a $5k claimer to a $1m stakes race.

Craig.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

....Nick Hines posted 2 Pik4's today at different tracks, a single Pik3, and a dime superfecta. One of the Pik4's were of the fiddy cent variety, costing $36, the dollar Pik4 cost $48, the Pik3 came in at $16, and the dime super at $7.20.

$97.20 wagered on the day. Pik4: $84 wagered $0 returned
Pik3: $16 wagered $0 returned
Superfecta: $7.20 wagered $0 returned

Now, I would probably have to configure the spreadsheet to analyze the different tracks wagered on, as well as the types of wagers. Still looking for the needed response for such an effort to be made.

Yeah :ThmbUp: or Neigh :ThmbDown:?

[OTM Al]

OTM Al,

I was one day off :lol:

Its June for sure now.

I wish to go on the record saying I really like TVG. I really like the ability to see the big races as they happen. If I could get HRTV I would also. I have occasionally compared an analyst's picks to my own, though only once have I ever added a horse to a ticket because of what one of them said, and it was I thought a very valid point that was made.

I could care less what the analyst's ROIs are. They aren't showing you what they really are betting. They are showing simple tickets to try to get entertainment bettors to bet. That's what pays their bills. TVG isn't for the vast majority of people on this board other than an outlet to be able to watch the races in your livingroom. I would also venture to say that there are a couple guys on that network that get regularly bashed here would make a lot of those nay sayers look like pikers.

TVG is what it is. You don't like it, go to the track or OTB or watch on your computer. We have more options today than ever, which seems to be forgotten, or maybe you'd just rather listen to a scratchy call on the radio and not be able to bet unless you were at the trakc like the "good" old days.

End of rant.

Til July :)

[MickJ26]

Now, I'm just throwing this out there to forum members that might have some interest in this concept.

Allow me to preface this idea with the fact we all know how difficult it is to post one's picks in advance on races one may never consider playing, but with a public posting should come some degree of responsibility. If a TVG subscriber can click on an anylist's ticket and wager on it accordingly, I think it might benefit all to see just how well those picks do, i.e. hit rate and ROI.

I am proposing that I set up a site where daily tabulations of all TVG analysts are tallied. This will require a daily observation of all tickets posted by TVG analysts on their web site, and an accumulative record of those tickets.

It is my belief that if analysts are held accountable for their postings, they will do a better job. A "watchdog" site, as it were, might be a positive for all.

Any suggestions or interest in such a site? I have way too much time on my hands these days, and am curious if anyone would share my curiosity in the results of such a program?

This being said, Betfair might change the entire program format rendering the program moot, but in the meantime, would anyone click on such a site once every couple of weeks to see how the TVG analysts are doing? :) If for no better reason than a smile?


One of the local newspapers here in New York (I don't remember which) did that recently with the local weather prognosticators. They kept track of their five day forecasts over a certain time period. They gave them a certain amount of leeway and turns out most of them weren't even close most of the time. They have access to satellite and computer information and yet, still wrong.
The weather I'd assume would be easier to predict than a horse race, much less four or six of them in a row. I go by the old adage that even the best handicappers in the world are wrong most of the time.

[fmolf]

part of the reason they do all of those p4's and 6's and p3's is they can look better because then they can select more than one horse....it is a tough job making selections and posting for every race.....not many here could do a better job....if you pick favs your a "chalk eating bum".....pick longshots your told your win % stinks....they cannot win

[Hajck Hillstrom]

No analyst could possibly show a positive ROI under such conditions that the TVG producers place on their on-air personalities, yet the format of the program requires them to construct tickets for the perusal of the viewer.

What if, though, Simon Bray showed a flat bet profit on his Saratoga Pik4's, and we discovered that Rich Perloff showed similar results with his Philly Park Pik3's? What if Dave Weaver's dime supers at the Meadowlands were 1-10 with a positive ROI, but his similar action at Los Al were 3-7 with a negative ROI?

Any positive result should be looked upon with amazement over a period of time. I would think that TVG personnel would embrace such a forum that would analyze their on-air analysis. After all, the goal wouldn't be to condemn their analysis, but merely to illustrate it.

We know they wouldn't actually play an early Pik4 in the slop at AQU with 21 entries in the sequence and two of the races taken off the turf, so maybe a $12 ticket might make more sense than a $48 play.

I seriously doubt that a single analyst would pay attention to the results though, unless they were positive, and that is the objective. POST SOMETHING POSITVE!

It has never mattered if TVG analysts post a losing or winning ticket on-air. Why not make it matter for something, even if the something is as minor as a mere observation of the record?

I like looking at the analysts tickets. I'm interested that they are spreading with 5 horses in a race I'm singling, or that they are singling in a race I'm spreading in. It opens up my perspective on a given circumstance

Methinks the public might be surprised by some of the results... in a positive vein. I'm leaning towards a trial run.... let's say a 6/7 week run during the Saratoga/Del Mar meetings and all corresponding meets.

[MakinItHappen]

Yeah :ThmbUp: or Neigh :ThmbDown:?

Chalk me up as a Yeah:ThmbUp:.

I for one would find it interesting. Perhaps it is just the beancounter coming out in me, but I guess it is in my nature to occassionally like to know what the score is... :lol:! I mean, listening/watching pick after pick is somewhat analagous to watching a sporting event play-by-play that goes on for days on end and you never get to see the score! :lol: Kind of starts to get to you after awhile...:lol:

It sounds to me like you are considering doing it for all the right reasons... no agenda... just facts! Personally, I would have no time for anyone bashing there negative ROI, unless they were right there picking against them day after day with the same constraints and doing better.

Best of Luck To You Hajck!

MakinItHappen

[turfnsport]

Hack,

I think your energy would be better spent trying to get the TVG execs to change the paradigm for broadcasting horse racing.

This everyday Pick 4 and Pick 6 mania makes for TERRIBLE television.

The second race at Belmont Park is no longer "the second race from Belmont Park"....It is the "first leg of the early Pick 4" according to TVG.

If I hear Ken Rudulph squeal "carrrrryyyyooovver!" one more time after a longshot hits I am going to jump off a cliff.

That crap and Pick 6 Central is complete and utter nonsense.

It's just BAD TV that seems to appeal to nobody.

[Cadillakin]

Most of us know that pace analysis is the backbone of handicapping, but has anybody else in this forum ever noticed that the TVG announcers or analysts never mention a pace edge that one competitor has over the others?

Am I deaf? Is my sound turned down too low?

And would somebody please tell Kenny when he is fumbling around talking about lone speed IN NEARLY EVERY RACE that a horse who goes in 46.2 and 1:11.2 cannot be pressed in the two turn race before him by a bunch of horses that run 47.4 and 112.3. God, I want to strangle that guy or yell into his face... "Can't you see right there in the form that horse is FASTER than the others. Of course, he got a lonely lead. He didn't steal the goddamn race.. He outran them."

I have to turn the TVG sound off to maintain my sanity! No kidding.

[rokitman]

We're not getting paid to prepare tickets and offer them to a television audience . I beleive they should be held to a higher standard . I'm not saying they're all bad either , but a few of them are , and I see nothing wrong with their audience knowing who they are .
Thanks for spelling out what should be very obvious to
Little so I didn't have to.

[Cadillakin]

If I hear Ken Rudulph squeal "carrrrryyyyooovver!" one more time after a longshot hits I am going to jump off a cliff.

That crap and Pick 6 Central is complete and utter nonsense.

It's just BAD TV that seems to appeal to nobody.
I think you and I might be jumping off the same cliff together one day. Obviously, Ken Rudolph is affecting us both in a similar way.

[Canarsie]

As you stated " have been in the game a long time" what is your reason to care what the analysts at TVG pick as their selections ?? WHAT do you care ?

I recommend that you use TVG as an outlet to watch races as they occur live in most cases or occasionally on tape delay.

I don't care who they pick but it's a tough watch when this guy is screaming "bet, bet, bet" every few minutes or talking about their great new video features. Obviously I'm not the only only one it bothers as others have commented about him "pimping" betting on your TVG account just look at page 3.

I think your wrong about the live part even when Keenland opens up they put Aqueduct on tape delay which is absurd. To tell you the truth Monday and Tuesday nights when they play just music suits me just fine.

Just my two cents I always like opposite viewpoints as it makes for healthy discussion.

[BombsAway Bob]

No analyst could possibly show a positive ROI under such conditions that the TVG producers place on their on-air personalities, yet the format of the program requires them to construct tickets for the perusal of the viewer.
What if, though, Simon Bray showed a flat bet profit on his Saratoga Pik4's, and we discovered that Rich Perloff showed similar results with his Philly Park Pik3's? What if Dave Weaver's dime supers at the Meadowlands were 1-10 with a positive ROI, but his similar action at Los Al were 3-7 with a negative ROI?
Any positive result should be looked upon with amazement over a period of time. I would think that TVG personnel would embrace such a forum that would analyze their on-air analysis. After all, the goal wouldn't be to condemn their analysis, but merely to illustrate it.
We know they wouldn't actually play an early Pik4 in the slop at AQU with 21 entries in the sequence and two of the races taken off the turf, so maybe a $12 ticket might make more sense than a $48 play.

I seriously doubt that a single analyst would pay attention to the results though, unless they were positive, and that is the objective. POST SOMETHING POSITVE!
It has never mattered if TVG analysts post a losing or winning ticket on-air. Why not make it matter for something, even if the something is as minor as a mere observation of the record?
I like looking at the analysts tickets. I'm interested that they are spreading with 5 horses in a race I'm singling, or that they are singling in a race I'm spreading in. It opens up my perspective on a given circumstance

Methinks the public might be surprised by some of the results... in a positive vein. I'm leaning towards a trial run.... let's say a 6/7 week run during the Saratoga/Del Mar meetings and all corresponding meets.
I love reading everyone's opinions on TVG. I've been watching them on-and-off for 3 1/2 years now.IMHO, They're the top Horseracing Network I can see!
Hajck, I think it would be a FABULOUS IDEA to make a record of TVG Pick-4 & Pick-6 Tickets between July 4th through Labor Day. :ThmbUp:
Racing quality is about as good as it gets at tracks big and small during mid-summer months.
P.S.: If anyone opens a Future Book on "Best Show ROI" during the 2-month-study, let me know. I've been tracking LosAl & Ed Burgarts selections for +14 months now, & Ed and the guys (Les,Dave,Mike,et al.) on "The Quarters" are SOLID! (But they have an advantage covering only Los Al racing year-round.)
I think TVG misses the broadcasting boat Big Time not taping segments of Mark & Nancy @ Mountaineer between races Mon/Tue nights, when "Nightgames" Muzak fills the airtime. Hard-core & new horseplayers could learn much of the Mounts' condition book, & races run on days with noticable track Bias's listening to M&N.(I Know I do!)
And can Anyone tell me Why Mr.Andy Serling is not doing a daily segment between 12:35-12:40pm/Et with Greg & Mr.B.? TLG could give out a "Pick of the Day", & maybe a "Dunce Cap Special" from time-to-time. That would be "Must-See-TV!" :jump:

[menifee]

I never play the TVG plays. However, I do watch the Quarters. It's quarterhorse racing and I always take an interest in watching the show.

They publish Ed Burgart's pick 4 and Les Onaka's pick 4. They also have Chris Kotulak (sp?) sometimes. These guys are really good. I've come to the conclusion that Ed Burgart is the best on-track handicapper and morning line maker in America. He is also a very good race caller. Les Onaka develops very good speed figures based on trouble and hits quite a bit. He does tend to be a bit chalky, but once in awhile he will hit a bomb.

In any event, the TVG analysts have had quite a run with the Pick 4's lately at Los Al. They have been hitting them quite consistently.

I would also say that certain analysts are excellent at certain tracks. Jill Byrne is very good at the Keenland meet. At Turfway, she gets weaker. Rich Perloff is the man at Fairplex (though he does not cover it for TVG, I think he is the trackside analyst).

On Blinkers Off, Matt Carothers and Mike Watchmaker do publish their ROI for the races they handicap for that show. Carothers had a positive ROI last year, though he is getting killed this year.

These guys are forced to handicap and publish their picks for races that coincide with their shift. You cannot honestly hold them accountable for those picks as I assume they are forced by the network to publish those picks.

What would be refreshing is to actually hear an analyst say: "You can't bet this race" or "This is a terrible race, save your money" They can't do it because they have to sell the ADW service.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If you want to buy someone's picks daily, good question as to people's ROI, but to find out how good a handicapper,
****I would say the person should pick what races and bets to use to figure ROI.
When I did public 'cappping, most PH's had to use the biggest circuits(NYRA, FL, Ca, IL, KY) as that is what the customers wanted. I got hired on because I was willing to settle for small and some medium size tracks. Bragging rights were based on # of races and wins for 1st choice + top 3 choices, not ROI. I listed my ROI over 3 manoths, but not many cared how much +ROI I scored at LRL, Oaklawn, NorCal, Thistleton, Lone Star, etc. IMO on that site, people would rather win a few stakes at big tracks and lose overall than get a +ROI overall.
With other cappers probablty the same way.
What bugs me is after the race the TV hosts will say "this $11 winner won his last 3 before this race!". Thanks a lot!!

[Track Phantom]

Les Onaka develops very good speed figures based on trouble and hits quite a bit. He does tend to be a bit chalky, but once in awhile he will hit a bomb.

You're obviously joking. Les Onaka is the all time worst...hands down. We watch The Quarters sometimes just to tabulate how many favorites Les will take on top. It is absurd. It's guys like Les Onaka that make people want to start a forum to track their selections. Les has never hit a pick 4 that paid over $31.20 in his life. In fact, he's never put a combination in that would allow him to hit for higher. To me, it is completely puzzling. I would slit my wrists if I were to sit on set and pick the morning line favorite in every race.

I've always said...."can we get more racing and Less Onaka?"

[Imriledup]

Here's an idea.....why don't you all give your daily picks as well so that they can be compared to all these public handicappers you want to call out.

He's not 'calling anyone out'. Now, if the TVG analyst takes it that way, that's a him problem not a Hajck problem.

[judd]

the only announcer who knows what hes doing is aaron vercruysse hrtv!

[statepierback]

Dave Weaver's Pick 4's are always $48.00. Its entertainment! Lets see if we can stay alive because its better tv. Thats the thinking. Les picks trouble horses frequently. Ed by far is the most professional and a solid capper. M.J can be solid but often falls into that entertainment capping mode. C.K. has knowledge but Ed's better imho because he's there every day.
Mr. B is old school and if I were to get touted he's the one. Todd's Fox play of the day could be worthy of an roi study. He seems like one of the regular "sickies" at the track. Matt will single the 6/1 speed and fade every time. He's useful because he's informative and does get hot at times. But a steady diet of following his picks is a road to the poorhouse. Christina will mention the workout reports {as does Mr.B} and I like that. More facts less opinion. I didn't know Nick used the sheets. That's useful. Plus the effort is there. He could improve on his relationships with his peers. Simon will pick every Marty Jones runner. Plus sometimes he will pick horses makes no sense what so ever then bs his way through it. He's strengthis at the bigger events. Ken gets people to react. I've spoken to people who don't care for the pimping. But that's his job. I think he's great as a host. Todd also very solid as a host. Rich is educational and underrated.
At the end of the day there mission is to get handle moving via their companies service. Any roi study will be tinted because of that fact and not fair to them as individuals. :13:

[eastie]

i used to do my best handicapping after about a case of Bass and an 8 ball. I had to start writing comments on every horse because the next day at the track I was asking myself, what did i see in that plug ?

i wish that a little more of the selections were vertical instead of horizontal. Why don't these guys put out exacta boxes or tri boxes or eve Superfecta partwheels ?

[garyoz]

At the end of the day there mission is to get handle moving via their companies service. Any roi study will be tinted because of that fact and not fair to them as individuals. :13:

This is really the point. To the extent that they encourage handle, they keep the network solvent and on the air. That's all I care about-- I bet through TVG with about 30% of my action just to support the economics of the network.

[Light]

I just wish I could book their tickets.

[the little guy]

I just wish I could book their tickets.


I imagine the feeling is mutual.

[Rocklane]

Pik4: $84 wagered $0 returned
Pik3: $16 wagered $0 returned
Superfecta: $7.20 wagered $0 returned

Now, I would probably have to configure the spreadsheet to analyze the different tracks wagered on, as well as the types of wagers. Still looking for the needed response for such an effort to be made.

Yeah :ThmbUp: or Neigh :ThmbDown:?

Hines also played a $3.20 Superfecta just before departing. No luck.

I honestly think TVG may hurt themselves with the Pick 4 and Pick 6 tickets. My thoughts are if those guys can't (or rarely hit) with all the information available to them provided by the network, how could I, a weekend player, possibly compete? The mantra from the industry is they gotta get new and younger players into the game. Well, consistently giving out losing tickets is not going to be the ticket. I agree with the guy who believes they should give out more horizontal plays. I say yeah to you Mr. Hillstrom. :ThmbUp:

[andymays]

These guys are there to generate action for TVG first and foremost.

Other than that their do a decent job of entertaining the viewer.

[46zilzal]

HRTV shows some intelligence. Something SORELY lacking in the couple of times I had to try and stomach TVG. Don't these clowns realize that the audience knows a bit about horse racing or they wouldn't have turned on the station?

Idiots talking to their audience as we were all first graders, handicapping wise.

[Rocklane]

These guys are there to generate action for TVG first and foremost.

Other than that their do a decent job of entertaining the viewer.


I understand completely. They are a gambling operation disguised as a sports channel.

If they gave out more winners, they would indeed get more action.

[Light]

I imagine the feeling is mutual.

How would you know?

[menifee]

You're obviously joking. Les Onaka is the all time worst...hands down. We watch The Quarters sometimes just to tabulate how many favorites Les will take on top. It is absurd. It's guys like Les Onaka that make people want to start a forum to track their selections. Les has never hit a pick 4 that paid over $31.20 in his life. In fact, he's never put a combination in that would allow him to hit for higher. To me, it is completely puzzling. I would slit my wrists if I were to sit on set and pick the morning line favorite in every race.

I've always said...."can we get more racing and Less Onaka?"

You are wrong. He is really respected at that track and a lot of times when he singles a horse or plays the pick 4, the horse will really get bet down. The Pick 4's he plays always pay more than $31.20. He hit one last weekend that paid a couple hundred. He does a lot of handicapping forums out west and he is a fairly well respected handicapper. He has had nights where he is has run the card. That's incredible at a quarterhorse track where you can be eliminated two feet out of the gate.

[thruncy]

As you stated " have been in the game a long time" what is your reason to care what the analysts at TVG pick as their selections ?? WHAT do you care ?

I recommend that you use TVG as an outlet to watch races as they occur live in most cases or occasionally on tape delay.Leave it on mute, watch and bet YOUR races and think for thine own self, brothers & sisters. You are the electric, tuned in, turned on, TV generation(s). Learn what really happened in Croatia & Serbia in the '90s....People beating on pots & pans outside the TV station in Belgrade. Look what's happening in Iran now! Communicate with each other.

[turfnsport]

These guys are there to generate action for TVG first and foremost.


And they are doing the EXACT OPPOSITE. They are basically telling viewers that two of the hardest bets to hit, the Pick 4 and Pick 6, are the way to wager.

How many newbies do you think dropped $500 in their account and went bankrupt by playing $48 Pick 4's and Pick 6 tickets for a week and never made a second deposit, instead going back to playing online poker or some other form of gambling?

They should emphasize easier wagers for a newbie to hit, like WP, doubles, and exactas, to keep these newbies in the game for a longer period of time with their bankroll.

Their bankrolls would last longer, and TVG would have greater churn and in the long run make more money.

This Pick 4 and Pick 6 mania of TVG is truly one of the dumbest and annoying things I have seen in this game.

[andymays]

And they are doing the EXACT OPPOSITE. They are basically telling viewers that two of the hardest bets to hit, the Pick 4 and Pick 6, are the way to wager.

How many newbies do you think dropped $500 in their account and went bankrupt by playing $48 Pick 4's and Pick 6 tickets for a week and never made a second deposit, instead going back to playing online poker or some other form of gambling?

They should emphasize easier wagers for a newbie to hit, like WP, doubles, and exactas, to keep these newbies in the game for a longer period of time with their bankroll.

Their bankrolls would last longer, and TVG would have greater churn and in the long run make more money.

This Pick 4 and Pick 6 mania of TVG is truly one of the dumbest and annoying things I have seen in this game.

Agree, but it's not just a coincidence that they're the highest takeout wagers!

The Tracks want them to push these wagers. Especially the P-4's. How many misguided Handicappers play 3 and 4 hundred dollar P-4 tickets to hit the damn thing for a dollar? Then add in the Plastic surface and you know why these guys do what they do. Unpredicatable high takeout wagers! Bend over and do it with a smile!

[Sid]

IMHO, almost everybody has this all wrong. (I guess that is called contrarianism.)

Hard-core gamblers would just as soon have nothing but all the tracks' races, and all the tracks' audio/video feed. That's out there and available, and is about to be available on more platforms ($90 a month, as I recall). OK by me. And when you have every racetrack in the country in all its audio/video glory coursing through your high-def TV, you are not going to hear one-tenth as much blather about picks sixes and pick fours as you do on TVG.

I believe the answer to that is very simple, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with takeout levels. It is this: Ordinary people -- newbies, tourists, and the clueless -- love this crap. It is a story line. It is like the gang down at your liquor store buying their lottery tickets and having a serious discussion about "what numbers THEY are going to RELEASE tonight" (well, it's a LITTLE more elevated intellectually than that). But that's it.

Surely a lot of people here remember the twin trifecta mania. Racetracks could give away handicapping books, kewpie dolls, free hot dogs, $2 vouchers, a chance to sit in the booth with the announcer . . . but NOTHING brought 'em in like a twin trifecta carryover. Biggest takeout on the wagering menu, and ordinary people never hit the thing more than about five percent of the time (although a few ordinary people did sell their live tickets to the sharks who showed up only after ordinary people had thrown enough money down the toilet to make it worthwhile).

I spent a season as a turf writer back in that era. As an amusement, once a week I wrote an item bitching that management refused to card an exacta in Race Five (first leg of the twin tri) so real horseplayers had something to bet on. Management kept saying it would diminish the pool in the twin tri. But after half a season of being embarrassed once a week, they relented and carded the exacta. Twin tri handle did not decrease one penny, and gamblers who had been sitting on their hands produced a fine exacta pool, thank you very much.

And on carryover days I and everybody else sat around and asked who had hit the damned thing -- Wolfie maybe? Or did a tourist finally hit it playing the second half of his street address? Yada yada. It's a story line. Put a lottery-sized payout on the TVG set and they have something to blather about. You and I, I hope, might be enthralled by a discussion of whether the $6.20 horse or the $8.40 runner is the one in the next race. I would not expect much in the way of ratings, however.

[MickJ26]

These are high risk/high reward bets.
I'd rather take that $48. and part-wheel a triple instead.
By the way, for those who are keeping track, Frank M. on TVG hit the late pick 3 at MTH for $63. on a $6. play.
Frankie Voices scored one for the TVG boys.

[Marshall Bennett]

yeah , only to leave the favorite and eventual winner off his pick4 ticket in race 8 . Not bad though cashing on a 6 dollar ticket earlier .

[Cadillakin]

yeah , only to leave the favorite and eventual winner off his pick4 ticket in race 8 . Not bad though cashing on a 6 dollar ticket earlier .
I like Frank Miramahdi's style. He picks one horse to win, not five horses. He gives good reasons for doing so. He doesn't vacillate and hedge.. And when he loses, he takes it right in stride..

He acts like a winner to me.

[discodog]

Why would anyone listen to another, unless your looking for an excuse. Who cares what the TVG guys pick. I find most of them to be snake oil sellers. When they do get lucky which isn't often they screem about it for a week.
When you dance every dance, which they do, you wind up with HOLES is your shoes

[andymays]

Why would anyone listen to another, unless your looking for an excuse. Who cares what the TVG guys pick. I find most of them to be snake oil sellers. When they do get lucky which isn't often they screem about it for a week.
When you dance every dance, which they do, you wind up with HOLES is your shoes


It's entertainment to some and not so much for others. It's better with TVG on the air than not.

I would like it better if they could have an independent voice but that's not possible at this time.

The only one that really drives me nuts is Ken Ruduph but not all the time. When he attempts to break down a race (pace,class, etc..) it's embarrassing. The Guy's been involved in Horse Racing now for several years and still can't come close to breaking down a race in any sensible way.

Play their picks at your own peril! (except for Christina)

[jasperson]

Why would you want to follow these picks? I am sure that most of the handicappers on this forum would come up with the same horses if asked to pick the most logical winner. I do pay attention to the handicappers that are at the track they are handicapping. They might have some infor that is available to them because they know the horses and trainers at the track.

[Inglewood Flamingo]

I worked for TVG for two years as a Researcher/Handicapper and helped launch the network and at the time we had a department of real horseplayer types behind the scenes crunching stats, selecting the backtracks and making selections for ourselves that were shown on air in addition to the hosts and analysts. I was also on the air as an analyst and went three for three my first time I was on with Matt and Ken! I think this is why most people seem to think that Rich Perloff's selections and insight is better than most since he originally started out as a Researcher for the network. Bottom line is that that job is MUCH harder than anyone can imagine unless you have done it yourself and I have been there. Horseplayer Magazine actually interviewed me regarding the position back in 2000 detailing the job responsibilities,perks,etc. Ah what it was like to get paid to read the Form and The Sheets. I also proposed a show that would have focus on educating the beginner with much less risky types of wagers based on the premise that how many times is a newbie going to reload his account if he can't learn to generate at least some kind of return?

[Marshall Bennett]

I beleive most of us would admit we're better off with the two networks than without them . I myself watch often . I'm not turned off by the racing analysis . I've knocked Matt many times with his picks , but in my opinion his analysis and break down of the races is quite good and informative . Bob Baedeker on the other hand puts me to sleep , though if you can stay awake he makes sense . All and all I like these guys , some more than others . Production can probably be blamed for much of our discontent ( pick6 central needs to GO ) but as I said earlier , we're better off with them than without .

[samyn on the green]

A good tout keeps track of their ROI and makes it easily accessible. (http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/search/label/play%20of%20the%20day)

[phatbastard]

bring back Exactorman and mr lucky.....they added humor and attempted to give reasons for every bet....no pick-4 and p-6's....even had a forum and inter-acted with patrons...it was great tv


former F-Trooper

[itrysohard]

I find it interesting when there are guests and visitors for a different perspective. I especially enjoyed the classy Gary Stevens. Good luck Gary with your new venture!
As far as the TVG regulars, Rich Perloff is right there, a real pro.
I am newbie to this forum, but who has loved the game since the late 80's. Keep up the good work with taking TVG to task. We SHOULD monitor the ROI's; it would be fun to see if they mention it on-air.
BTW, anyone know what P Val is doing these days? He cost me a pick-6 in 1991 with a take-down at Hollywood...but that is another story.

[phatbastard]

pval has 5 mounts @ Louisiana downs today

[KingChas]

Hajck Hillstrom; " I am proposing that I set up a site where daily tabulations of all TVG analysts are tallied. This will require a daily observation of all tickets posted by TVG analysts on their web site, and an accumulative record of those tickets."

Hajck,you got to much free time. :D

"It is my belief that if analysts are held accountable for their postings, they will do a better job. A "watchdog" site, as it were, might be a positive for all."

Why kill the Pied Pipers?
Since it's pari-mutual wagering.I really do enjoy a bad analyst sweetening the pot. ;)

[zerosky]

One of the local newspapers here in New York (I don't remember which) did that recently with the local weather prognosticators. They kept track of their five day forecasts over a certain time period. They gave them a certain amount of leeway and turns out most of them weren't even close most of the time. They have access to satellite and computer information and yet, still wrong.
The weather I'd assume would be easier to predict than a horse race, much less four or six of them in a row. I go by the old adage that even the best handicappers in the world are wrong most of the time.

Good Point, there is a wealth of information about 'Forecasting Skill' one of the best I have stumbled on is here http://tinyurl.com/muxnal
It's a pdf about halfway down the page entitled "Use of the "odds ratio for diagnosing forecast skill " The Math is a little heavy but there are useful formulaes for evaluating forecast accuracy.

[rokitman]

A good tout keeps track of their ROI and makes it easily accessible. (http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/search/label/play%20of%20the%20day)
Good point,Sam. Nobody should need to be tracking your plays for you. You should be doing it yourself- unless you are in the business of playing fools. Making losers of new players in the Pick 4 pools isn't good for anybody.

I don't think they should stop following their pick 4's on there. Quite the contrary. I think they should keep doing what they are doing. It just should be known what it is all adding up to, just as Hajck has proposed.

[Tom]

Why kill the Pied Pipers?
Since it's pari-mutual wagering.I really do enjoy a bad analyst sweetening the pot.


Excellent point!

[Hajck Hillstrom]

After rereading the 70+ responses to this idea, I remain on the fence. It is a pretty mixed response, and as is often the case in this sport, a good deal of negativity weaves it way through the fabric of the industry.

I am always amazed how the positive is rarely accentuated.

I wasn't looking to "call out" the much respected analysts at TVG as Andy Serling thought I was, as much as looking to recognize them. As it stands today, quite often when one of the analysts do connect with one of these on-air tickets, the only way they can address it might be in a self-congratulatory manner. Sure, the reward is in cashing the ticket, but these guys aren't playing all the tickets they post.

I might move forward with the idea, and I might not, but the format won't be set up to bash their results. I do think it might illustrate some programming flaws at TVG, and shouldn't the end result be a better product for all to see? I enjoy watching the network. I look forward to the changes (enhancements?) that Betfair will bring to the table.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, it is time for the horsePLAYER to be recognized. These are the guys I relate to. These are the people I associate with. Again, I'm not looking to bash these individuals, but merely looking to provide a forum that might better illustrate their handicapping chops.

When a TVG analyst goes on a 0-24 Pik4 streak and than hits a $984 signer, 95% of the viewing audience only realizes the losing streak. They will get raked over the coals in forums such as this one, and be treated like carrion.

If I were a TVG analyst told to come up with X amount of plays a day to post on the website, my pride would make me do the best job possible with that task. If my results were being tabulated, I might make an even stronger effort. It won't illustrate that Matt Carothers has a propensity for the turf, but a positive ROI in his Pik4's at Saratoga might lend credence to his observations at that oval, and when I'm enduring his diatribe on 58 Flat, at least I'll know there is a good reason that I am doing so. :D

[the little guy]

I wasn't looking to "call out" the much respected analysts at TVG as Andy Serling thought I was, as much as looking to recognize them. As it stands today, quite often when one of the analysts do connect with one of these on-air tickets, the only way they can address it might be in a self-congratulatory manner. Sure, the reward is in cashing the ticket, but these guys aren't playing all the tickets they post.




My comment was a suggestion that you should try standing in somebody's shoes before criticizing them. That is what I was thinking.

[rokitman]

My comment was a suggestion that you should try standing in somebody's shoes before criticizing them. That is what I was thinking.
Listening to you, a person might think you were talking about someone working in a coal mine, or landing on the beaches at Normandy.

[Light]

When a TVG analyst goes on a 0-24 Pik4 streak and than hits a $984 signer, 95% of the viewing audience only realizes the losing streak. They will get raked over the coals in forums such as this one, and be treated like carrion.



I totally disagree. When Pearloff or TLG pick something that pays halfway decent,there are posts about it here that would make you think you can throw away your racing form and follow these pied pipers to the bank. In the meantime,I do monitor these guys and most of the time their results are as blasai as any other handicapper. And any other handicapper does shine in the sun occasionally. I dont see these guys doing any better than anyone else. It just seems like they do cause they get all this hype when they hit and there is no ROI monitor.

My comment was a suggestion that you should try standing in somebody's shoes before criticizing them.

I did imagine standing in the shoes of a public handicapper. And what I realized is that,ITS YOUR JOB TO PICK HORSES. I think that would make your handicapping more professional,not less. Public handicappers have no excuses for not producing a positive ROI for the public. I do have an excuse. Its not my job. The excuse that public handicappers have when they dont produce a positive ROI is that "most horseplayers lose". Well no one needs help in that department. We can all do that on our own with absolutely no effort.The only ones who would actually play a public handicappers picks are losers,not winners.

[Sid]

Public handicappers have no excuses for not producing a positive ROI for the public.
That's silly.

The only ones who would actually play a public handicappers picks are losers,not winners.
That's correct.

[KingChas]

And any other handicapper does shine in the sun occasionally. I dont see these guys doing any better than anyone else.


This whole thread kind of throws me.
What are we looking for the "Secretariat of Analyst"

If this were to happen the sport would be destroyed.
Chalk forever.$20 pick-6's etc.....

Analyst have strengths and weakness's like any other handicapper.
I like it that way.

You can better the sport,create more horseplayer organizations,but handicapping and betting for the most part will always be individually independent.

PS;Light, I quoted you because I agree with you. ;)

[Tom]

Here's a case where I use public handicappers - harness races. I am no expert by any means and have a lot to learn. I have my own way of handicapping, but I still get a lot of insight from Pandy and the guy at the Big M (just bought his new book). Not that I am playing there picks, but they do offer comments that help me understand that game better.

I think T-Bred bettors can learn from guys like Litfin, TLG, etc.
Selectors who just throw out numbers, to me, are worthless.
I can sitll hear the old tip shet sellers in the lobby at FL years ago, "Yesta-day, THREE winners! One on top!:D

[BillW]

Here's a case where I use public handicappers - harness races. I am no expert by any means and have a lot to learn. I have my own way of handicapping, but I still get a lot of insight from Pandy and the guy at the Big M (just bought his new book). Not that I am playing there picks, but they do offer comments that help me understand that game better.




You need Melman's 800 # ... 1-800-CHA-CHING :lol:

[Marshall Bennett]

Much of Light's post makes sense ( unlike a lot of what he post in off-topic ) :D I would say however where the pick6 is concerned TVG analyst are severely limited to the size ticket they can constuct , thus making any possitive results in the long run virtually impossible . I do beleive they should be held to a higher standard than your average handicapper where other wagers are concerned , that to me is a no-brainer .

[KingChas]

Beginning of thread quote by HH;
"It is my belief that if analysts are held accountable for their postings, they will do a better job. A "watchdog" site, as it were, might be a positive for all."

This is what scares me about this thread.

Held accountable + Money involved = alot of things.

Nothing Good.

[the little guy]

Funny, when I read this latest flurry oif posts, I can't help but think of the final verse from " Positively 4th Street. "

[Hajck Hillstrom]

My comment was a suggestion that you should try standing in somebody's shoes before criticizing them. That is what I was thinking.:lol: :lol:

Do you really think I was criticizing them? Really? That is what you got from my line of questioning and position on this topic?

As for those not familiar with the final line from Positively 4th Street....

I wish that for just one time you could stand inside my shoes
and for just that one moment I could be you
Yes, I wish that for just one time you could stand inside my shoes
You'd know what a drag it is to see you.

Pretty strong dose of the negativity I was referring to.

Gertrude might have said, "methinks thou dost protest too much."

[ezrabrooks]

Give the Public Handicappers a break. Not sure about the guys on TVG, but most have to make a opinion on every race on the Card...which is tough duty.

Ez

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Funny, when I read this latest flurry oif posts, I can't help but think of the final verse from " Positively 4th Street. "I'm getting a pretty strong Jim Rome vibe from you Andy. Is it your intent to alienate yourself?

[the little guy]

I'm getting a pretty strong Jim Rome vibe from you Andy. Is it your intent to alienate yourself?

You infer a lot of things that make me scratch my head. The " Positively 4th Street " reference ( which I love that you got ) was not meant for you.

I think if your original intentions were as different as you later claimed, you should have realized that beforehand, and perhaps worded your thread-starter differently.

As for alienating myself.......the ones who are alienated did it for their own reasons. One gives what one gets.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

This is what scares me about this thread.

Held accountable + Money involved = alot of things.

Nothing Good.Fair play. I respect this position, though I might argue the other side of the coin.

My position has always been one to accentuate the positive, but I can see the result that more harm than good might be caused, hence my line of questioning.

[1st time lasix]

I use public handicapper's i respect---names like Brad free, David litfin, Mike Welsh, Andy Serling, Mike Watchmaker, Mike Hammersly, Davidowitz, Beyer etc not as a substitute for my own study/handicapping....but to see if they have an insight i may have overlooked. Particularly in Pick 4 and pick 6 play. It doesn't mean i am going to use their selections .....but they might know the connections, saw a replay or have a different pace scenario that I might envision. One thing i have learned is that there is more than one way to skin a cat and a "what if this happens" mentality can be useful in multirace exotics. I don't hold them to their picks made way in advance either. They can't forsee the surface condition, a track bias or make an adjustment based on a key race participant. They also generally have to pick every race too. There are some cheap chaos races I would much rather pass that take a stand and be rated on.

[the little guy]

Gertrude might have said, "methinks thou dost protest too much."



Being that it's fair to assume that if you use this line you are also familiar with Hamlet, I think it is also fair for me to point out that you make a lot of conflicting statements, and thus the difference between your posted words and later claims becomes even murkier.

Aside from your now more obvious intentions, I am more than comfortable with my opinions, and the thought processes I convey while giving them. Pick them apart all you want.

[Marshall Bennett]

I think you guys are digging way to deep , the original concept at the beginning of the thread is back at the surface ^^^^ . :)

[Hajck Hillstrom]

You infer a lot of things that make me scratch my head. The " Positively 4th Street " reference ( which I love that you got ) was not meant for you.Good. I thought you were still mad at me for throwing popcorn at you during our viewing of Factotum.

I think if your original intentions were as different as you later claimed, you should have realized that beforehand, and perhaps worded your thread-starter differently. My original intentions were multilayered, and readdressed throughout the thread, but never was there a negative intent professed in any of it. The life of the public handicapper is a fascinating one to me. I love listening to various perspectives on the canvas we are all trying to paint. I guess my position has always been this, if I were a public handicapper, I would want to keep score.

[the little guy]

I still haven't figured out how Bukowski ended up at Canterbury Downs.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I still haven't figured out how Bukowski ended up at Canterbury Downs.:lol: :lol:

[cmoore]

I totally disagree. When Pearloff or TLG pick something that pays halfway decent,there are posts about it here that would make you think you can throw away your racing form and follow these pied pipers to the bank. In the meantime,I do monitor these guys and most of the time their results are as blasai as any other handicapper. And any other handicapper does shine in the sun occasionally. I dont see these guys doing any better than anyone else. It just seems like they do cause they get all this hype when they hit and there is no ROI monitor.



I did imagine standing in the shoes of a public handicapper. And what I realized is that,ITS YOUR JOB TO PICK HORSES. I think that would make your handicapping more professional,not less. Public handicappers have no excuses for not producing a positive ROI for the public. I do have an excuse. Its not my job. The excuse that public handicappers have when they dont produce a positive ROI is that "most horseplayers lose". Well no one needs help in that department. We can all do that on our own with absolutely no effort.The only ones who would actually play a public handicappers picks are losers,not winners.
You tell'em Light... We always here that so and so hit this or had that cold..But when you dig deeper..It's a long term loss..No public handicapper can pick all the races on a card and make a profit. Most couldn't pick half the races on a card and show a positive ROI..They could of been out late the night before getting drunk and handicapped the whole card in about 30 minutes..We don't know..It's fine to listen to these guys or gals and take in any information they may have...Most the time it's blah blah blah and I turn down the volume...For anyone to succeed at this game..YOU have to the work YOURSELF!!!!

[the little guy]

CMoore is essentially right. It is virtually impossible for a public handicapper to have a long term positive ROI. Secondly, people should do their own handicapping. Isn't that what makes the game fun anyway?

I have always said, if you want to listen to what we ( or anyone ) says, try to follow their logic......if it isn't something you had thought of, think about it, and if it makes some sense to you, maybe you want to include the given horse. If it doesn't....don't. Ultimately, the decisions are up to you. It's like when someone says " that guy talked me off that horse. " The right answer is " no he didn't....you talked yourself off the horse. "

[Hajck Hillstrom]

....the slop and scratched fields has given you ample opportunity to participate here today. I guess Belmont's loss in a thinned out version of today's card is our gain.

I've listened to your analysis for a couple of years now, and have discovered, I know you will find this hard to believe, you are my Angel Cordero....my kryptonite. Understand that there is NO disrespect with this statement.

Trust me, brother, you will NEVER talk me down off a horse. :lol: The kiss of death is when we agree.

Shocking.

[KingChas]

My position has always been one to accentuate the positive, but I can see the result that more harm than good might be caused, hence my line of questioning.

Perhaps someone could refresh my memory.
Years ago wasn't someone stalking a TVG host?
PR stunt or real?
Was it pick related?

[Track Phantom]

I think everyone is a bit harsh on the TVG guys (and gals). They do have a tough job.

[Marshall Bennett]

Hajck , maybe in hindsight had you gone on with your plan to do this unannounced , and then offer up your results say in 30 days , the reaction would have been more favorable here . I still think its a good idea and beleive you should move forward . MB

[Canarsie]

If somebody really has the time :lol: I would love to see the top cappers (don't count me in) here do an all star ticket against the TVG picks and see who comes out on top. I think it would make an interesting discussion to say the least.

I have found this to be a very entertaining discussion to say the least.

[statepierback]

My favorite part of TVG is the all-access format which is run on Sunday's. I'd rather stay at home than be at the local off track betting center. I've gotten some nice winner down the road from information obtained during those broadcasts. :ThmbUp:

[Imriledup]

CMoore is essentially right. It is virtually impossible for a public handicapper to have a long term positive ROI. Secondly, people should do their own handicapping. Isn't that what makes the game fun anyway?

I have always said, if you want to listen to what we ( or anyone ) says, try to follow their logic......if it isn't something you had thought of, think about it, and if it makes some sense to you, maybe you want to include the given horse. If it doesn't....don't. Ultimately, the decisions are up to you. It's like when someone says " that guy talked me off that horse. " The right answer is " no he didn't....you talked yourself off the horse. "

I agree with this post....any player is supposed to incorporate the public handicapper's comments and information into their own already solid handicapping. People are not supposed to just blindly bet on another person's picks. If they do, they get what they deserve.

[NY BRED]

why not post a challenge to TVG.?

Each week, one member of our forum would pick individual races as
an additional anaylst and a comparison could be made on ROI's.

These scenario could lead to a larger audience base for TVG.


Ps: If we proved superior perhaps we could have our own
handicapping station:jump: :eek: :jump:

[Cadillakin]

I agree with this post....any player is supposed to incorporate the public handicapper's comments and information into their own already solid handicapping. People are not supposed to just blindly bet on another person's picks. If they do, they get what they deserve.
Perhaps..

When I was a kid starting out, the local paper had the number of winners at the meeting listed beside the handicappers name.. It became apparent to me after following these guys for a while, that our local guy, Roy Betz, was much better than the syndicated guy, Ernie Mason..

I sometimes went to the races with the adults and followed along with the newspaper. My mom would give me $2 once or twice at the track.. I tried to make it count.. Should I bet on a whim or should I follow the guy who I knew was much better than Ernie Mason - who was hawked all over the racetracks?

$2 was a lot of money for me.. So, for me and many thousands of others, following the better handicappers, either thru the newspapers or the tip sheets was the way to go... And to our benefit, the Long Beach Press Telegram kept track of which handicapper was picking the most winners.

I think keeping track of the handicappers can only benefit the novice player and those who want to dabble a bit.. At least they have a sense they are following good advice...

[Sericm]

Held accountable for what? Horse racing picks. Be serious! Who cares what their Roi is. Todd hit a pick 4 at Keeneland a few months back for $24,000, on a $36 or $48 dollar ticket. What would that make his ROI for the year. C'mon, the only reason I tune in to TVG is to watch the races. I use the website for betting, MY OWN SELECTIONS. Watching the telecast is entertainment. Any one who actually wagers on these guys selections has to be nuts. Lyons, Baedeker, Jill Byrnes and Christina are the only ones I would consider placing a bet on their selections. The others are doing a job as personalities and announcing. I never play the P6 and have never put more than $12 in a pick 4 and have hit enough to make it worth my while.

SERICM

[The Hawk]

Perhaps..

When I was a kid starting out, the local paper had the number of winners at the meeting listed beside the handicappers name.. It became apparent to me after following these guys for a while, that our local guy, Roy Betz, was much better than the syndicated guy, Ernie Mason..

I sometimes went to the races with the adults and followed along with the newspaper. My mom would give me $2 once or twice at the track.. I tried to make it count.. Should I bet on a whim or should I follow the guy who I knew was much better than Ernie Mason - who was hawked all over the racetracks?

$2 was a lot of money for me.. So, for me and many thousands of others, following the better handicappers, either thru the newspapers or the tip sheets was the way to go... And to our benefit, the Long Beach Press Telegram kept track of which handicapper was picking the most winners.

I think keeping track of the handicappers can only benefit the novice player and those who want to dabble a bit.. At least they have a sense they are following good advice...

It's amazing that it's still the same -- people still clip picks out of the local paper, and the local papers generally keep track of how a handicapper's doing based on the number of winners picked, rather than ROI. The number of winners picked is not nearly as important as ROI, obviously. A lot of the local guys would have high percentages, and people would think that was great, but meanwhile they were picking all favorites and would bury you over time, if you followed that advice.

[DanG]

I can’t even imagine picking 1, 2 sometimes 3 days in advance. I’ve discussed major races with Massa hours before they occur and bet in another direction 3 minutes before post. (He’s done the same btw; as we all have.)

Remarkable some achieve what they do and hats off to the ones who are working their tails off. Every time I see Litfen I know he’s grinding because the phrase ‘sleep deprivation' comes to mind. :eek:

[Sid]

Long post. Story. If you don't like such, go ahead and scroll down to the next post.

The realities of being a newspaper handicapper were considerable. (None of which matters with the impending death of newspapers and the near-absence of turf writing in those papers still with us, but I'll post this anyway.)

Newspaper handicappers obviously had to make picks before knowing scratches or track conditions or the toteboard. But that's nothing. Through most of newspaper 'capping's history, picks had to be made without PPs.

That's the setting for the process, which included clipping and saving piles of Racing Form charts (and in some cases clipping and pasting from those to make one's own PPs).

The target audience, meanwhile, included both recreational/occasional/tourist/office-party racegoers (remember them?) as well as the degenerate gambler. Everyone on this board knows that your Uncle Harley and your cousin Vince, when they ask you about an upcoming race, want to know just one thing: Who is going to win? Period. On boards like this you will read thousands of posts stating that is exactly the wrong question to ask (an assertion that could be quarreled with, but that's another story). Point is, for most newspaper readers the imperative was to put a winner on top.

I came into horseplaying in a town that still had two newspapers and two turf writers who handicapped the local races.

One' writer's philosophy seemed to be that on a dead-nuts perfect day he would have the favorite on top in every race. Laugh if you must, but keep in mind that he operated without seeing past performances, making this no easy trick. He also, of course, on numerous occasions ran the card with winners or came within a race or two of doing so. And this, further of course, would result in a blurb in his newspaper's sports section extolling his picking prowess. Again, there is reason both to laugh and applaud. His "best bet" of the day was, again of course, really his "most likely winner."

The other writer's philosophy was: "You don't need to buy a newspaper to know who the $(%*&@ favorite is." He was a very good handicapper. His "best bet" of the day was really his, well, best bet -- meaning there was likely some value to the proposition.

This long post began, believe it or not, with me intending a response to the widely held belief that newspaper handicappers and, for that matter, the morning line have huge impact on final tote prices. I do not believe that at all. I don't believe it because of what one sees on toteboards every day at racetracks where lousy lines are written (and revealed as lousy by what appears on toteboards). And I don't believe it because of what I witnessed one day while I was making picks for one of the newspapers mentioned above.

I was writing and picking for the afternoon paper (remember them?), which had a morning street-sales edition. I had to file my picks two nights before the races. The internet was brand-new, and one could not find PPs there, early OR final. The track arranged for the Form to fax me PPs as soon as they were available at the Chicago office. With late draws to fill races, it was not unusual for me to be sitting in the press box at midnight, with no one else on the grounds except security.

One such night I made my picks and punched them into the programmed machine the paper had installed for this purpose. One quirk of the machine was that after you punched "send" there was no way of proofreading. And what came out in the paper on this occasion was me putting on top a horse that I figured had no chance whatsoever, and should go at no less than 35/1.

The press box hung from a cantilevered roof and my desk was at the end of the press box, meaning the window at my left looked straight down about 80 feet at grandstand seats where I could see retirees sitting with clippings of my selections after making three bus transfers to go wager their Social Security check. I had visions of old dudes living on cat food for a month because they saw that I had made my highest-priced selection of the meet. This did not feel good.

When the race was run, my alleged top selection ran around the track at the back of the field, finished right where he should have -- and at the price he should have . . . or maybe five ticks higher.

And that is the way public handicapping goes. I also do not believe Beyer speed figures have much of an impact on the tote -- any more than my friend who tried to put the favorite on top of every race had much of an impact on the tote. The tote largely indicates the entrants' chances of winning better than any handicapper, or tout, or computer program, or set of figs could do. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to do better on the bottom line. If you do, it won't be because somebody led the money by the nose in the wrong direction. It will be because the best picker in the business was wrong, as "he" is two-thirds of the time.

Sorry for the bandwidth.

[Cadillakin]

Fabulous Sid...

Your writing transports me to places I've never been and lets me know about things I've never done...

[Cadillakin]

It's amazing that it's still the same -- people still clip picks out of the local paper, and the local papers generally keep track of how a handicapper's doing based on the number of winners picked, rather than ROI. The number of winners picked is not nearly as important as ROI, obviously. A lot of the local guys would have high percentages, and people would think that was great, but meanwhile they were picking all favorites and would bury you over time, if you followed that advice.
Well, in this case, you're wrong with your supposition... Roy Betz not only picked more winners than Ernie Mason, he picked better prices too... He was clearly the better handicapper - in every sense.

If one follows a certain handicapper, we sometimes learns their affinities by way of their comments.. Betz might say, "upset special" on the 5th horse listed in a 10 horse race..which denotes "may be live at a price." He might comment, "Much better than looks" on his 3rd pick, which might denote a horse coming off a troubled trip.. Both might be ready for their best and have a higher than normal percentage than his normal 3rd or 5th picks.. Those of us who follow him might recognize the subtle nuance. Furthermore, a favorite that he considers beatable... he might unenthusiastically comment "The one to beat" while placing him 2nd.. And if he likes the favorite, he might comment, "Beat him for all the money" while placing him first...

In a sense, if you know your guy, it's like him being right there with you at the track and giving you a little advice on every race. But it doesn't end there..

Those of us who follow(ed) the newspaper guys don't blindly bet their picks in every race.. We develop our own little methods to increase the overall ROI of our bets using their selections as one of our tools.. We might also watch the odds board and take a look at the horse in the paddock too.. We might have favorite trainers and jockeys and/or combinations.. and we may be advanced enough to have favorite sires that we can use from the program pedigree line.. The approach may vary quite a bit...

No doubt in my mind.. some of the casual tip sheet/newspaper players may have a better understanding of the horses they play and a much higher ROI than many of the handicappers in this forum who use the language of the logician and/or the tools of an advanced technician but who know almost nothing about the horses they are playing...

[Imriledup]

On Saturday July 4th, Ken Rudulph released a horse named On Vapors in the 2nd race. This was a horse with absolutely no chance to win and he suggested the public make a play. This horse should have been 99-1 and he recommended a play on this steed at 20-1. When he gave out this horse the first thing i thought was that it was pretty hot out for April 1st.

[andymays]

On Saturday July 4th, Ken Rudulph released a horse named On Vapors in the 2nd race. This was a horse with absolutely no chance to win and he suggested the public make a play. This horse should have been 99-1 and he recommended a play on this steed at 20-1. When he gave out this horse the first thing i thought was that it was pretty hot out for April 1st.


Every time he talks about a race they should put a disclaimer below saying "this man does not know what he's talking about" or "if you want to go to the poor house listen to Ken".

I don't know why they continue to let him mislead newbies and novice handicappers. I guess they don't really care!

[Marshall Bennett]

Every time he talks about a race they should put a disclaimer below saying "this man does not know what he's talking about" or "if you want to go to the poor house listen to Ken".

I don't know why they continue to let him mislead newbies and novice handicappers. I guess they don't really care!
He continues to try to duplicate his fluke pick of Giacamo in the derby . He'll pick nearly anything Mike Smith rides as well . Most of the analyst picks I take with a grain of salt , with Ken I don't even pay attention .

[andymays]

He continues to try to duplicate his fluke pick of Giacamo in the derby . He'll pick nearly anything Mike Smith rides as well . Most of the analyst picks I take with a grain of salt , with Ken I don't even pay attention .


It's really irritating to hear him ramble on about his pick. If he kept it down to a few words it wouldn't be so bad.

[fmolf]

Sid i agree with almost everything you said except the beyer numbers have a huge impact on the tote board.Just ask any speed handicapper who made his own figures, before the racing times began to publish them.they changed the game because all novices and weekend players or tourists have to do now is buy a program and play one of the top two highest rated last race beyer horses!This is generally what does happen driving prices down on horses that 25 yrs ago would have been hidden form price horses.otherwise an excellent post.

[Imriledup]

Every time he talks about a race they should put a disclaimer below saying "this man does not know what he's talking about" or "if you want to go to the poor house listen to Ken".

I don't know why they continue to let him mislead newbies and novice handicappers. I guess they don't really care!

I agree, i mean, i don't mind the guy picking a longshot, but you can tell just by the way he talks that he doesn't really know the game and really has made no attempt to learn. He's been around for what, 10 years? 5 years? He's been in this game for enough time to at least START to learn the ins and outs. His horseplaying and handicapping knowledge has stopped growing. He's a young guy who has some energy and passion for this game yet he doesn't appear to have learned anything over the years he's been sitting there. He's a smart enough guy in real life, he just isn't putting in the work to get better.

[Bruddah]

I agree, i mean, i don't mind the guy picking a longshot, but you can tell just by the way he talks that he doesn't really know the game and really has made no attempt to learn. He's been around for what, 10 years? 5 years? He's been in this game for enough time to at least START to learn the ins and outs. His horseplaying and handicapping knowledge has stopped growing. He's a young guy who has some energy and passion for this game yet he doesn't appear to have learned anything over the years he's been sitting there. He's a smart enough guy in real life, he just isn't putting in the work to get better.

Where I am from, we would say he is a "Know it Alll" or he was "To Smart to Learn". That's my diagnosis and I'm stickin to it! :lol:

[Imriledup]

[/B]

Where I am from, we would say he is a "Know it Alll" or he was "To Smart to Learn". That's my diagnosis and I'm stickin to it! :lol:

I agree with that somewhat. I think Ken will poke fun at himself on occasion that he doesnt' know a heck of a lot, but i think that part of him really believes he's an expert.

[Tom]

Strange business model - put on a channel to show races and hire no-nothing loud mouths to talk newbies into betting losers to grow their ADW business.
Nothing like losing your ass on hopeless long shots to bring 'em back in droves.
And it's only July 5! ;)

[Imriledup]

Strange business model - put on a channel to show races and hire no-nothing loud mouths to talk newbies into betting losers to grow their ADW business.
Nothing like losing your ass on hopeless long shots to bring 'em back in droves.
And it's only July 5! ;)

haha. good post, very true!:lol:

[Imriledup]

Way to Go Christina, She gave out the winner of the Oaks the other night on the works program. Good stuff from the little lady!

[cj's dad]

Strange business model - put on a channel to show races and hire no-nothing loud mouths to talk newbies into betting losers to grow their ADW business.
Nothing like losing your ass on hopeless long shots to bring 'em back in droves.
And it's only July 5! ;)

Please PA people, get a life. TVG is a broadcast network; thank them for televising the races and ignore their picks. Please stop being so anal.

[Imriledup]

Please PA people, get a life. TVG is a broadcast network; thank them for televising the races and ignore their picks. Please stop being so anal.

Thank them?:lol:

[Tom]

I want to publicly thank the talking heads of TVG for being lousy handicappers and piss-poor announcers. I apologize to them for having had some sort of expectation of standards of good TV andgood racing. I have alwas been a loose cannon. There.
:lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

I think the talking heads on TVG deserve every single bit of criticism flung their way concerning their selections and the performance or non-performance of said selections.

There have been analysts over the year's who have taken tons of shit from people on message boards...guys doing picks in the paper, analysts for NYRA getting tons of shit on NYRA's own message board (when they had one)...and these people kept a public record of their selections...hell, I remember one NYRA analyst who actually showed a positive ROI more than once for an entire meeting, but God-forbid that analyst started showing a negative ROI or a low win% during the next meet, and the critics would fly out of the woodwork like vultures....

That's the nature of the business. Hell, the TVG folks don't even keep a public record of how their picks do...

My point in all this is that TVG should NOT be exempt from the time-honored tradition of stringing up horse racing analysts for all their worth...especially analysts who are too chicken to keep public records of their performance.

So, as Hjack Hillstrom loves to say:

Carry on, carry on....(or is that carrion????:lol: )

[castaway01]

I agree, i mean, i don't mind the guy picking a longshot, but you can tell just by the way he talks that he doesn't really know the game and really has made no attempt to learn. He's been around for what, 10 years? 5 years? He's been in this game for enough time to at least START to learn the ins and outs. His horseplaying and handicapping knowledge has stopped growing. He's a young guy who has some energy and passion for this game yet he doesn't appear to have learned anything over the years he's been sitting there. He's a smart enough guy in real life, he just isn't putting in the work to get better.

Isn't his role to play the part of the "newbie" or "fan" while the other guys are the "experts"? Of course his picks are useless, but I assumed he was intentionally asking naive questions that the new viewer at home might ask and taking shots at "fun" hunch plays like a casual bettor might.

[andymays]

Isn't his role to play the part of the "newbie" or "fan" while the other guys are the "experts"? Of course his picks are useless, but I assumed he was intentionally asking naive questions that the new viewer at home might ask and taking shots at "fun" hunch plays like a casual bettor might.


That's probably what his role should be. I think the "newbies" or the "causal fans" are misled by what he does. I said jokingly before in a thread that they should put a disclaimer up when he speaks but maybe they really should. How many "newbies" or "casual fans" play his stuff thinking he knows what he's talking about and lose their collective asses. They will probably become less involved in Horse Racing because of Ken and not more involved because of the bad experience when they follow his advice!

I have a strong feeling that he won't be around after his contract expires

[Marshall Bennett]

I have a strong feeling that he won't be around after his contract expires
He's been there since day one 10 years ago , why would anything change now ?

[BUD]

I in the morning have been watching some Brit racing--With that came across a slew of (tipsters)With most of the (Naps) they keep a record of the hit %--I mean some are 0fer 33--And such--So in a way nothing is wrong with keeping track--Lashing out & calling them idiots? dunno about that---But thats part of life----I spent my life being called a Pig--BFD--But having a nephew in the NFL--I efffen hate when he gets cut up by bloggers or in the press---But as he said to me--BFD---I collect my pay no matter what they say----

So in the spirit of a Great One
"carry on"

[castaway01]

That's probably what his role should be. I think the "newbies" or the "causal fans" are misled by what he does. I said jokingly before in a thread that they should put a disclaimer up when he speaks but maybe they really should. How many "newbies" or "casual fans" play his stuff thinking he knows what he's talking about and lose their collective asses. They will probably become less involved in Horse Racing because of Ken and not more involved because of the bad experience when they follow his advice!

I have a strong feeling that he won't be around after his contract expires

Andy, he's been there for TEN YEARS. Obviously TVG likes him in this role or he would have changed or been gone many years ago. Just simple common sense.

[KingChas]

Please PA people, get a life. TVG is a broadcast network; thank them for televising the races and ignore their picks. Please stop being so anal.

You are so right!

Thank god horseracing is on TV every day,I prayed for this years ago.

Being a capper for over 30yrs I've always been trying to improve every aspect of my play.I was never concerned about Manny,Moe or Jacks picks.
I find it hard to believe any serious player would get as you say so anal over worrying about others selections.

TVG needs a TVG East crew.At an east coast track.Right now it is so west coast oriented it's pathetic.They could also have a guest picker every weekend.I'm talking one of us.

There are a lot of wannabes here.
Wasn't that the original agenda of this entire thread. ;)

[cj's dad]

My sole criticism is that they choose to show Woodbine ahead of belmont when the two line up within a minute or so of each other.

I would assume that their wagering handle is larger on WB than it is on Belmont. That to me would be the logical explanation.

[BillW]

My sole criticism is that they choose to show Woodbine ahead of belmont when the two line up within a minute or so of each other.

I would assume that their wagering handle is larger on WB than it is on Belmont. That to me would be the logical explanation.

I think WO pays for that.

[cj's dad]

I think WO pays for that.

Bill, can you elaborate

[BillW]

Bill, can you elaborate

I believe WO signed an exclusive agreement with TVG a few weeks ago. I'm guessing that one of the privileges of exclusivity is priority on races aired (Emphasis on "guessing", I don't really know)

[Marshall Bennett]

I believe WO signed an exclusive agreement with TVG a few weeks ago. I'm guessing that one of the privileges of exclusivity is priority on races aired (Emphasis on "guessing", I don't really know)
I would guess that would be the case or close to it , why else would they have Belmont in the backseat ? I doubt Woodbine would take priority over Hollywood Park though , not in a million years .

[OTM Al]

It would also make sense for them because WO has never been on their network before. They need to sell hard to get their own handle up there. I'm sure the exclusivity is in play as well since NYRA tracks are now on both channels.

[cj's dad]

I would guess that would be the case or close to it , why else would they have Belmont in the backseat ? I doubt Woodbine would take priority over Hollywood Park though , not in a million years .

TVG has prover 1,000 times over that HP takes precedence.

[BillW]

TVG has prover 1,000 times over that HP takes precedence.

Another exclusive - my guess is a bigger deal than WO.

[OTM Al]

It's their "home" track, so that makes perfect sense. I would only question if they did that but were not based in LA. That all access stuff they do there is kind of fun anyway as I'm more of a watcher when TVG is on than a bettor.

[BUD]

Handle is declining-People want to see their $$$ run---I remember CJ saying that the similcasting here is Dog sh-t----One track should differ 5 minutes--Then maybe some would wager on both --I hate races on tape delay----If I can not see it live they don't see my $$$$-EZ is that.

[BMeadow]

Occasionally on this forum there is the following bashing of folks on TVG or in the Form or their local paper, which goes something like this:

"Jimmy is an idiot. If you followed his selections you'd be down $2 trillion for this meet. I could do a better job of handicapping than he can. Why don't they give me the job?"

There is a vast difference between "professional handicapper" and "professional gambler." One has nothing to do with the other.

A professional handicapper has to turn in his work on time (if working for a newspaper) or show up at the studio for his shift every day. He has to prepare to either talk about or write about upcoming races. He has to follow the format required by the people who hire him (make a pick 6 ticket each day, select three best bets for a phone line, pick one horse in every race, say nice things about even the most incompetent trainer, etc.).

It is completely irrelevant to his being hired and retained whether he has ever made any money gambling.

The professional gambler has an opinion and takes personal financial risks; the professional handicapper simply has an opinion.

A professional handicapper doesn't have to earn any money from gambling. Whether he never gambles, plays for small stakes, or has lost every year of his life doesn't matter. His expertise at the windows, or lack thereof, has pretty much no effect on his ability to earn a living with his opinion of the races. I doubt that any television or newspaper handicapper has ever been fired because he picked too few winners or had a lousy ROI.

On television, they're hired to entertain, fill the space between races, and encourage people to play via their particular betting service. On radio, they push their 900 line or are there to sell commericals. In a newspaper, they satisfy certain customers who buy the paper solely to read the daily handicap.

Should you pay attention to the opinion of a professional handicapper? If you haven't seen a particular race and a professional handicapper tells you that A's win was a bias-aided setup, or if you don't attend the morning workouts and a clocker lets you know that B is suddenly training much sharper than usual, you can benefit from these professionals' expertise.

Just don't take their selections seriously.

And give these guys a break.

[ryesteve]

Should you pay attention to the opinion of a professional handicapper? If you haven't seen a particular race and a professional handicapper tells you that A's win was a bias-aided setup, or if you don't attend the morning workouts and a clocker lets you know that B is suddenly training much sharper than usual, you can benefit from these professionals' expertise.

Just don't take their selections seriously.
If you shouldn't take their selections seriously, why would you give any credibility to their subjective assessments of bias and workouts?

I understand you're trying to stick up for these guys, and it's not like I've been part of this pile-on in the first place, but this seems contradictory to me. If someone's picks are terrible, I'd feel more comfortable ignoring everything from them that isn't factual in nature.

[Imriledup]

Occasionally on this forum there is the following bashing of folks on TVG or in the Form or their local paper, which goes something like this:

"Jimmy is an idiot. If you followed his selections you'd be down $2 trillion for this meet. I could do a better job of handicapping than he can. Why don't they give me the job?"

There is a vast difference between "professional handicapper" and "professional gambler." One has nothing to do with the other.

A professional handicapper has to turn in his work on time (if working for a newspaper) or show up at the studio for his shift every day. He has to prepare to either talk about or write about upcoming races. He has to follow the format required by the people who hire him (make a pick 6 ticket each day, select three best bets for a phone line, pick one horse in every race, say nice things about even the most incompetent trainer, etc.).

It is completely irrelevant to his being hired and retained whether he has ever made any money gambling.

The professional gambler has an opinion and takes personal financial risks; the professional handicapper simply has an opinion.

A professional handicapper doesn't have to earn any money from gambling. Whether he never gambles, plays for small stakes, or has lost every year of his life doesn't matter. His expertise at the windows, or lack thereof, has pretty much no effect on his ability to earn a living with his opinion of the races. I doubt that any television or newspaper handicapper has ever been fired because he picked too few winners or had a lousy ROI.

On television, they're hired to entertain, fill the space between races, and encourage people to play via their particular betting service. On radio, they push their 900 line or are there to sell commericals. In a newspaper, they satisfy certain customers who buy the paper solely to read the daily handicap.

Should you pay attention to the opinion of a professional handicapper? If you haven't seen a particular race and a professional handicapper tells you that A's win was a bias-aided setup, or if you don't attend the morning workouts and a clocker lets you know that B is suddenly training much sharper than usual, you can benefit from these professionals' expertise.

Just don't take their selections seriously.

And give these guys a break.


These talking heads have no such deadline, they can give out selections right up until post time, they are not required, like Brad Free, to handicap days in advance.

I guess there is a fine line between being a person who can release winning selections and information and actually turning that into profit. Many folks don't want to give these analysts credit because they feel that if their picks are so good, why aren't they keeping their information and betting it themselves?

But, like you said, winning money for a living and reasing winning information are two seperate things. Handicappers can cherry pick what information they want to from what the talking heads have to say.

[PaceAdvantage]

I doubt that any television or newspaper handicapper has ever been fired because he picked too few winners or had a lousy ROI.Well, if that were the criteria, a majority of them would be out of work. With that said though, some are treated more harshly than others, despite similar performance (or lack thereof).

[Imriledup]

Well, if that were the criteria, a majority of them would be out of work. With that said though, some are treated more harshly than others, despite similar performance (or lack thereof).

I actually think that what ticks people off is that these experts come across like they are lifetime winners. There's ego there. In order to chop down that ego, fans of the sport don't appreciate the swagger from these tv personalities when the fans at home know these guys wouldn't be able to win if they had no other source of income. If one of these talking heads came out and said "i'll admit, if i had to make a living betting horses, there's no way i could do that, i'm not good enough" I think that would go a long way, replace the ego with honesty, i think that would go a long way with the fans who criticize these guys.

[fmolf]

I actually think that what ticks people off is that these experts come across like they are lifetime winners. There's ego there. In order to chop down that ego, fans of the sport don't appreciate the swagger from these tv personalities when the fans at home know these guys wouldn't be able to win if they had no other source of income. If one of these talking heads came out and said "i'll admit, if i had to make a living betting horses, there's no way i could do that, i'm not good enough" I think that would go a long way, replace the ego with honesty, i think that would go a long way with the fans who criticize these guys.
Rich Perloff has said exactly that.he is the only one.I cannot get to upset by their on air attitudes.I have learned to cull the information i feel pertinent from them and their is not much...the backtracks are a nice feature..Simon bray...ron ellis and tom amoss whenever he is on are interesting for their insights into the training game.Bray not so much any longer.I am gonna assume that if matt or mr b is betting their value selections as personal wagers they are prohibited from saying "i will bet this horse if he is over 3/1" as that would be bad for business....it's an easy job what they do...but they do not get much love from us handicappers and rightly so.no reported roi...no reported hit rate...no reported win %....they would do better picking longshots so at least when they do hit people would remember!.. they hit as many serial wagers that lose money as make money!

[bishlap]

aren't the exacta pools the largest? if this is correct then why doesn't anyone on the networks (save Dave Weaver) ever post exactas? Wouldn't that benefit the so called casual bettor that TVG/HRTV are supposedly aiming for...wagering a $1 or $2 box per race seems more reasonable and hittable than $48 pick 4's not to mention the immediacy of a potential payoff per race.

[fmolf]

aren't the exacta pools the largest? if this is correct then why doesn't anyone on the networks (save Dave Weaver) ever post exactas? Wouldn't that benefit the so called casual bettor that TVG/HRTV are supposedly aiming for...wagering a $1 or $2 box per race seems more reasonable and hittable than $48 pick 4's not to mention the immediacy of a potential payoff per race.
They want to promote the higher takeout wagers.these are the wagers that they make the most money off of.

[Imriledup]

aren't the exacta pools the largest? if this is correct then why doesn't anyone on the networks (save Dave Weaver) ever post exactas? Wouldn't that benefit the so called casual bettor that TVG/HRTV are supposedly aiming for...wagering a $1 or $2 box per race seems more reasonable and hittable than $48 pick 4's not to mention the immediacy of a potential payoff per race.



ICE COLD!
exactas!:jump:

[WinterTriangle]

[QUOTE=Bison]Why limit it to TVG analysts? There are a lot of really bad race analysts out there.
[QUOTE]


Do the TVG analysts use a software program to make their picks?

Usually, they give their reasons for liking a horse *on paper*. Seems like they handicap the old fashioned way.

I can go to any site, including this one, and read thru people's picks......or, sites where people PAY FOR picks.........and they aren't right more than the usual ratio. :confused:

I guess I don't get the complaint. I just tune in for the the summary details, like what the horse did last race, who was in the race, trainer stats, etc and other stuff I may not have looked at becuase I don't always use PPs, I sometimes just physicality handicap the post parade.

So, you're saying the analysts owe us not an analysis, but WINNING PICKS as well? :confused:

[Imriledup]

[QUOTE=Bison]Why limit it to TVG analysts? There are a lot of really bad race analysts out there.
[QUOTE]


Do the TVG analysts use a software program to make their picks?

Usually, they give their reasons for liking a horse *on paper*. Seems like they handicap the old fashioned way.

I can go to any site, including this one, and read thru people's picks......or, sites where people PAY FOR picks.........and they aren't right more than the usual ratio. :confused:

I guess I don't get the complaint. I just tune in for the the summary details, like what the horse did last race, who was in the race, trainer stats, etc and other stuff I may not have looked at becuase I don't always use PPs, I sometimes just physicality handicap the post parade.

So, you're saying the analysts owe us not an analysis, but WINNING PICKS as well? :confused:

I think they owe us at least a break-even ROI after a long series of trials. MOst of the analysts at TVG have had enough shots to prove they can break even or win or they shouldn't be giving out picks.

OR, if they are lifetime losers with their picks, there should be somewhere that TVG shows their ROI.

Of course, we all know that every TVG analyst is down lifetime on what he or she has given out on the air. There's really no way they CAN be up unless they've hit some huge 100k pick 6.

In fact, what is the largest pick 6 that a TVG analyst has hit on air? Everytime there's a carryover, the are putting 100 or 150 bucks into the bet, you would think by dumb luck that ONE analyst has showed a HUGE pick 6 score.

I think Chris Kotulak hit a 15k pick 6 one time, but i don't know for sure.

TVG should show the ROI, its not hard for them to keep track of their own analysts bets and how much they've invested and how much they've cashed for.

[Pell Mell]

I think that most miss the point that this is TV. The mindset of TV in general over the last 5-10 yrs. is to keep the audience in suspense in order to keep them hanging in there. If you can keep the audience hanging on it just creates more opportunity for commercials to be seen.

I never watch TVG so have no idea as to the commercials they show, if any. I would think they show commercials and by concentrating on the horizontal bets, they have a better chance to keep the audience tuned in. After all, if you bet an exacta or two and blow your allowance for the day, your gone.

[Imriledup]

Matt is now recommending trifecta bets at Penn National? Really?

Wow, that's bad.

No difference between that and standing in front of an AA meeting handing out cans of Budweiser.