What do YOU have to offer?

[OffNPacing]

I would like to start a thread for passing on knowledge. You may post how you play trotting races. Or maybe Pacing races. Higher/Lower class. Possibly what you look for when looking at the PP's. Maybe post some info on your specialty, such as horses coming off Qual's. If you play 1 specific type of race only, when it may come up, possibly post why you do this, and some hints at what maybe to look for.

I had seen in the archives where this was started awhile back and wasn't favored much by many people, and can't see why. We all have a great deal of knowledge to offer. By posting some useful information on here, especially harness information, the odds won't fall much if they do at all, and you will be helping an individual step their game up a notch. So why not help people that may have come to this wonderful website seeking help/information.


So come on, post some of your helpful hints, styles, or whatever YOU have to offer the rest of the HARNESS handicappers on this website.

[OffNPacing]

I will be the first to start this thread.


My favorite races to wager on is low-level Pacing races. This is due to the fact that favorites win few of these races, and offer a good handicapping a great deal of value.

Where to start? Well first, I look at the M/L favorite, and go from there. Have a starting point. By looking at ALL of that horses PP's, and where the post is today, make a hypothetical FINISH time of that horse. Now look at the 2nd M/L favorite, and do the same. When you're done, you will either have close figures, or find that 1 horse may stick out. If that 1 horse isn't the M/L favorite, bet it. Otherwise, if the standout horse is the M/L favorite, and the class is low-purse, pass the race.


The main thing to find, is a horse, that is not the M/L favorite, that can compete in today's race. Also, another thing to look for is current form/condition. A horse, that is not the M/L favorite, and yet has acceptable form or has made a brilliant move last race, and closed well, is a bet. The idea behind this is value. At most tracks, the M/L favorite will be the Post Time favorite, in low-level races. If you can find a horse at decent odds, that can compete, its worth a shot. If you hit 2 out of 7 or 8 races, at decent odds, you can still make a profit!!!



The reason for choosing low-level Pacing races, instead of Trotting races, is due to the fact that in low-level Trotting races, the races are filled with Chronic Losers, that may break at any time, even without showing a break in the PP's.


Feel free to share some information!!!

[Ray2000]

I'll list the races I avoid.

I use a computer program to search for possible "Playable" Races in all North American tracks for the current day.
It is set to summarily reject any race based on:

Race is for Maidens
Race is for Amateur Drivers
Race has Distance other than a mile
Race has less than 8 or more than 10 starters
Race has coupled entries
Race has a Trackmaster Class rating < 68 or purse <1500
Race has any entry with no past performance line in last 100 days
Race has any entry with a Morning Line < 2/1 (depends on track)
Race has any entry with a 80%+ win %
Race has 4 or more entries showing a race line with a break in past 3 months

The first 4 reasons are the most important.
Some 7 horse fields might be playable but a single scratch will turn it into a stretch type sprint.

[OffNPacing]

I'll list the races I avoid.

I use a computer program to search for possible "Playable" Races in all North American tracks for the current day.
It is set to summarily reject any race based on:

Race is for Maidens
Race is for Amateur Drivers
Race has Distance other than a mile
Race has less than 8 or more than 10 starters
Race has coupled entries
Race has a Trackmaster Class rating < 68 or purse <1500
Race has any entry with no past performance line in last 100 days
Race has any entry with a Morning Line < 2/1 (depends on track)
Race has any entry with a 80%+ win %
Race has 4 or more entries showing a race line with a break in past 3 months

The first 4 reasons are the most important.
Some 7 horse fields might be playable but a single scratch will turn it into a stretch type sprint.


Good retrospect Ray. I agree on all of your reasons to avoid races. Thanks for the reply!

[Stick]

For me I have always done better at a few select tracks than tracking certain types of plays or horses at all tracks. Unfortunately, this limits the amount of bettable races dramatically.

At my home track I have used a simple process for years to flush out overlays in the win pool. First, I eliminate NW 1,2,3 and races for 2 and 3yr olds. All other races are playable. I then highlight any horse who has what I view as a form line ( modified Al Stanley line) in its last race. I use a tiebreaker to rank the horses that have a form line. I play my top choice at minimal acceptable odds of 3-1 for posts 1-7 and odds of 5-1 for post 8-10. What happens is this. Many times my horse will be under 3-1 and I pass the race. The overlays come from horses that are moving up in class or where the public has become enamored with another horse for some reason. Usually because of a drop, barn change, or driver change.
Now I now that when my first choice is bet down I should look for value with one of the other contenders, but this has led to zigging and zagging and so I keep it to my top choice at the right odds.

[JoeG]

My method of play is very simple and based on the fact that I have very little time to play. My database spits out the plays for me to bet. I've already queued up my bets for today.

1) No restrictions on the type of race. If I have time I will avoid a race that has more than 1 horse with 1 or 0 running or qualifying lines

2) I take into account 3 factors only. These are two track/post adjusted speed figures and an adjustment figure that accounts for the horses post position today. First speed figure is the best figure of past 75 days, race or qualifier (with a slight adjustment based on the other figures during that period). The second speed figure is best figure last 6 races, race only, adjusted for late speed. The third figure is a simple adjustment figure based on post position that adjusts both speed figures.

3) Next I only look at a horse whose two adjusted figures are within 1 point (length) of the top figure in each category. That horse is a spot play. If I play live (rare these days) I only bet horses at 8/1 or greater. If I bet in advance I play horses with ML 6/1 or greater.

Example race:


Today Trk Rce Gait PP Horse ML Spot aFT aB6 Adj

6/15/2009 MOH 10 PACE 6 FRONT PAGE 6 Spot 100 100 0
6/15/2009 MOH 10 PACE 1 HARRAHS BEST 5 91 87 1
6/15/2009 MOH 10 PACE 4 BIGMIZNDRSTNDING 12 89 91 1
6/15/2009 MOH 10 PACE 2 SILVER DRAGON 7 89 74 1
6/15/2009 MOH 10 PACE 7 LIVEFREEORDIEHARD 6 88 87 2
6/15/2009 MOH 10 PACE 9 GRAVEL CRUSHER 7 87 72 3
6/15/2009 MOH 10 PACE 5 SANTAS SPECIAL 7 86 74 1
6/15/2009 MOH 10 PACE 3 SMOKEYS LUCK 6 85 73 2
6/15/2009 MOH 10 PACE 8 NEOCON 4 84 73 2

[justin13892002]

My favorite spot play is a driver change, as well as a drop in class.

Ex: Trot, at Mohawk. If a horse drops and picks up Trevor Richie, or Jamieson, I bet it regardless of the odds.

Another nice spot play, in my opinion, is a closer from the rail. If I see a horse from PP1 or PP2, especially in a trot, that has the fastest closing time, or close to it, and the final times are close with the rest of the field, I bet.

Just a few ideas! Good idea for a thread ONP.



JOE, can you go more in depth on how to create the figures? Are they trackmaster figures?

[OffNPacing]

Some good stuff so far!!! I see there has been 90 views of this thread, but nobody is posting information? Come on guys, I am not saying give out your secrets, but share some information, maybe why you play a specific type of race, or specific type of horse. Good ideas so far guys!!! Keep them coming.

Also, Joe.... as Justin asked, how do you come up with your figures? If you don't mind posting.

[Stick]

Justin,

At what track(s) do you find the dropping driver change work best.

[JoeG]

Speed figures are composed two different ways:

1) The 75 day figure is more of a straight figure that adjusts for pace, track and post position of the race. Also I include qualifiers as some horses don't have a race in the past 75 days. The figure take each quarter, adds it together, and adjusts for horses used hard in fast quarters.

2) The best of last 6 races ignores qualifiers. This speed figure is adjusted by late pace, track and post position.

I used to use form but this took me off a lot of big payoffs, despite an increase in win%. Also I stopped looking at driver, trainer, win%, etc as these factors keep me away from some good winner and really hurt my ROI.

Now I spend about 20 - 40 minutes depending on how many tracks are running to get my spot plays. I have not automated the process of collecting the data I need, so I need to spend a bit of time collecting and processing it. My current win % is just above 15%.

I believe you could use trackmaster figures or simubet though I now use my own homegrown figures.

[JoeG]

Here is a starting point for using speed:

1) Take the best SR from trackmaster over the past 45 days. Use the post position figures for track they list (a number from -100 to +100) for the horses PP today and convert PP value (PP#/30). Add SR+(PP#/30). For some reason 45 days worked well when I used their figures. I have never tried 75 days with trackmaster.

2) Subscribe to simubet ($90/year or $9/month). Take either the BR# on their sheet OR 2nd best BR on the BR figures sheet of last 6 races (a better option). Again adjust by post. Also look at trackmaster lines and put LQ time for chosen BR race. Add up to 2 points for best LQ.

This gives you a good idea of how I come up with my figures. Experiment with different formulas for creating a speed figure. I forgot to mention that I take off time for being 1st over and more for 2nd over. Also I take off time if horse runs on lead.

[JoeG]

BTW, for those who use Youbet, the ROI feature is a big improvement. Youbet has been a little late to come around but they are making strides. Their batch betting has been a big help too.

[justin13892002]

Justin,

At what track(s) do you find the dropping driver change work best.


I find that Mohawk works the best. Sometimes Balmoral, and I have found Chester/Big M if the Driver change is to Tetrick, off a drop.

I believe just last week, Tetrick drove a dropper, and won at 7-1.
Trevor Richie drove a dropper at Mohawk 2 or 3 days ago, and hit a nice winner at 5-1.


It has to be a POSITIVE driver change, and a drop in class. Sometimes the payout on these can be good! So to answer your question, I would have to say Mohawk is the best, Balmoral on occasion you will find one, and Chester/Big M if the dropper picks up Tetrick.

[Ray2000]

JoeyG

I noticed you don't include the Daily Track Variance... is that because

You don't have any faith them.
Simubet BRs already include them? (not sure)
Simubet uses a different DTV system (no positive variances)



My speed ratings are very similar, using the horses final time, adjusted for racing wide in turns, DTV daily track variance, post (corrected for trailer), my track speed rating, and small corrections for pace and driver.

I do the same for the final quarter time and the ADD the final time and 4thQ time together. This addition accounts for the pace.

I do this for all lines no older than 100 days, no qualifiers or break lines. and then use a trend projection for todays race

Lowest total projected time 'wins' this part of the rating factors.


BTW I really like Youbets batch submission and myROI features. Wish Twin would do the same for my Pocono, Meadows, Chester wagers.

GL

[OffNPacing]

I will go in-depth, in a new direction.

This is more of a higher % of win horses type of selection than Value. Sometimes you will get value, but most times, it is a way of predicting a good amount of winners. Basically, this will pick a SOLID key horse about 75-80 % of the time. THIS IS FOR PACE RACES ONLY!!!! Trots are too unpredictable.


1.) Take a quick run through of the PP's. Find the FASTEST adjusted mile of the last 2 races.

Qualifier at same track ONLY = Time - 2 Seconds
1/2 mile to 5/8= Time - 2 Seconds
5/8 mile to 7/8= Time - 1.2 Seconds
7/8 Mile to 1 Mile= Time - 0.3 Second

Now use this smart. If a horse is going from a 1/2 mile to a 1 mile track, you would use Time - 4 Seconds. Also use vise versa, if they are going from a 1 mile to a 1/2 mile, you would ADD time + 4 seconds. Its a ladder system. This is only to get a rough time estimate.


2.) Write down each horses fastest adjusted mile in the last 2 races. If possible, use the fastest mile at the track the race is at today.


3.) Get rid of all horses not within 1 second of the fastest mile.


4.) Now with the remaining horses, get rid of all horses that did not finish in the top 4 in the race in which you selected.


5.) If you reach this step and have more than 3 horses left, pass the race. Okay, now step 5.

Out of the horses left, your selection is the horse that has the BEST driver on any 5/8, 7/8 or 1 mile track. This is chosen based on the best UDR.

On a 1/2 mile track, your selection is the BEST post.



This has been one of my best methods for a KEY horse for many years!!! Hope it helps some people.

[Stick]

I approach different tracks in different ways. Is this something that works better at certain tracks? If so, which ones?

[OffNPacing]

I will go in-depth, in a new direction.

This is more of a higher % of win horses type of selection than Value. Sometimes you will get value, but most times, it is a way of predicting a good amount of winners. Basically, this will pick a SOLID key horse about 75-80 % of the time. THIS IS FOR PACE RACES ONLY!!!! Trots are too unpredictable.


1.) Take a quick run through of the PP's. Find the FASTEST adjusted mile of the last 2 races.

Qualifier at same track ONLY = Time - 2 Seconds
1/2 mile to 5/8= Time - 2 Seconds
5/8 mile to 7/8= Time - 1.2 Seconds
7/8 Mile to 1 Mile= Time - 0.3 Second

Now use this smart. If a horse is going from a 1/2 mile to a 1 mile track, you would use Time - 4 Seconds. Also use vise versa, if they are going from a 1 mile to a 1/2 mile, you would ADD time + 4 seconds. Its a ladder system. This is only to get a rough time estimate.


2.) Write down each horses fastest adjusted mile in the last 2 races. If possible, use the fastest mile at the track the race is at today.


3.) Get rid of all horses not within 1 second of the fastest mile.


4.) Now with the remaining horses, get rid of all horses that did not finish in the top 4 in the race in which you selected.


5.) If you reach this step and have more than 3 horses left, pass the race. Okay, now step 5.

Out of the horses left, your selection is the horse that has the BEST driver on any 5/8, 7/8 or 1 mile track. This is chosen based on the best UDR.

On a 1/2 mile track, your selection is the BEST post.



This has been one of my best methods for a KEY horse for many years!!! Hope it helps some people.


Also if you like playing exotics. This is a GREAT way to hit a good deal of them. If you get to step 5, and have 2 or 3 horses left, BOX them in an exacta!

[OffNPacing]

I approach different tracks in different ways. Is this something that works better at certain tracks? If so, which ones?

This works excellent at all tracks!!! I am now running many Trots in my database to see if Trots work as well.

[OffNPacing]

Here is the entire Adjusted Time Chart


Qualifier at same track ONLY = Time - 2 Seconds

1/2 mile to 5/8= Time - 2 Seconds
1/2 mile to 7/8= Time - 2.3 Seconds
1/2 Mile to 1 Mile= Time - 3 Seconds

5/8 Mile to 1/2 Mile= Time + 2 Seconds
5/8 mile to 7/8 Mile= Time - 1.2 Seconds
5/8 Mile to 1 Mile= Time - 2.3 Seconds

7/8 Mile to 1/2 Mile= Time + 2.3 Seconds
7/8 Mile to 5/8 Mile= Time + 1.2 Seconds
7/8 Mile to 1 Mile= Time - 0.3 Second

1 Mile to 1/2 Mile= Time + 3 Seconds
1 Mile to 5/8 Mile= Time + 2.3 Seconds
1 Mile to 7/8 Mile= Time + 0.3 Seconds

[OffNPacing]

Example of Race Step by Step

BALMORAL Race 3
PACE


1.) Qual Minus 2 Seconds= 1:56
Race = 2:00

2.) 1/2 Mile Minus 3 Seconds to 1 Mile track = 1:59.4
1/2 Mile Minus 3 Seconds to 1 Mile track = 1:55.1

3.) Race = 1:58.1
Qual at different track = XXXXXX

4.) Race = 1:57.3
Race = 1:59.3

5.) Race = 1:55.3
Race = 1:55.1

6.) Race = 1:55.4
Race = 1:54.4

7.) Race = 1:58.2
Race = 1:58.1

8.) Qual Minus 2 Seconds = 1:55.1
Qual DNF = XXXXXX

9.) SCRATCHED
Qual at Different Track = XXXXX

10.) Race = 1:58.3
DNF = XXXXX



Next step. 1:54.4 was the fastest. The horses need to match a 1:55.4 to stay alive. That leaves 2-5-6-8.

Now they all finished in the top 4 in the selected race, so you could either PASS or choose the TOP 3 horses out of the 4, that have the Best Driver, based on UDR. This selects 2-5-8. Box them in an Exacta.


Finished 5-8-9.

[LottaKash]

All good stuff guys....All, I got some nice insights and a lot of food for thought....Thx for sharing...:jump:

As for final time, I was just looking at OffnP's, track adjustments for the final times, (good stuff OnP, btw) and after dwelling on them for a good bit, it kind of dawned on me, I hardly even look at the final times anymore...Somewhere along the way I sort of abandoned it (not completely, of course)...I can't quite explain it, but I just don't pay that much attention to it, as I used to...I mean I see it, and respect it, but I don't use it as a very important tool any longer...Somewhere along the way it just slipped away as being THAT important in my search for winners...

For sure, final time can't be ignored, but it really doesn't enter into my calculations as a prime factor any longer....I use the TM-SR, my PIPS, and especially the pace numbers and, the three-half mile times, and the 2 3/4-times....They tell me the real story, I think, especially when you combine them....TrackMaster takes care of the variant and the post positions, as well as other factors when they give you their Speed Ratings....I accept them at face value and just go with them to measure one horse to another, but only to find the top-contenders, as the SR is only a pointer, in my opinion..(still sometimes there will be a vastly superior SR and it is not the fastest final time)

ONe powerful way I Do Use It (final time), is when a horse will have a distinct final-time advantage over all of the other contestants and contenders, and if he isn't being bet strongly, I will try to attack him as, if he is DOB (dead on the board) that is a strong statement against his winning the race, and I will look to bet another powerful contender or two in that race, as the crowd nor the barns rarely ignore final time...But for me that is as far as it goes, final timewise...

Pace makes the race, and when one understands, thru the pace of the race, a horses's running line will reveal how a horse won and lost his race, and how he may have come out of that race.. For me, understanding the explanation of pace and the running line of a horse, speaks the loudest to me....It is something like, what is the difference between 1:56 or 1:56.3..?...There are so many ways that the 1:56 horse may not be the best horse... Variance's due to, Date, Wind, Temp, track surface (dry, hard, sloppy, good, drying out, etc.) or at night, or in the daytime...I think often enough this explains how a 1:57 hoss can beat that 1:56...So, why put so much emphasis on it if this is true, and it is, often time ?....There has (must) to be a better way to get a winner than final time....Besides, I believe (final time) it is the most used, abused, and over used thing that there is in harness racing....And, when your contenders and the crowds opinion of them are the same, there just isn't any edge, or enough of one to get you to the paydirt in the long run... When you can't find something different than the general crowd I believe you will have a hard time winning in the long haul, the track take is just too much to overcome....We all know that only a handful of players are way ahead of the game, so if you are always on the crowds favorites or 2d and 3d choices, well that is like admitting that you are not in that handful of winning players....Sure you win some races, maybe a lot of races, and that is a good thing, but if you keep using final time as the key, you will probably never be in that handful of players...

Try and understand me, this is not intended to be a lecture about the wonders or perils of using final time, it is just my perspective and my way of going at the races....Final time IS important, but I can prove to you often enough that the elements and fractions that got that final time is what it is most important....If a horse that had the "best" final time won his race, I will bet you that the fractions of that race, and how the race was contested, and by whom, were really the reasons for the win, and not the final time itself...This final time may have been just an illusion and coincidence that happened to stand out on the winner in his last race...

Recently Track Master implemented their new Pace-Performances, and I was kicking and screaming about the exhorbitant new price on these new fangled past performances....I said I wouldn't get them, and I tried to rationalize why I wouldn't....Still after seing a model or two of them, I knew in my deep down, that I just needed to see more....So I bought a subscription, and I have never looked back....They offer all the individual horses's 1/4 mile fractions, their (2)-3/4 mile fractions, and their (3)-1/2 mile fractions as well as a quantified perspective of those same fractions....In the beginning, I lunged right in with the new numbers, and if you saw my win and profit results in the first month or two, it would resemble something like the graph of the 29'-market crash ! I always dread those times when I am restructuring my handicapping to include some new things, don't you ?...So after the initial shock therapy, I cooled it a for a bit, and took the numbers to task, and I measured their performance at all the tracks that I usually wager at, including some of the others that I also play from time to time....Keep in mind I never recorded anything or kept any records, except what this old gray matter can still mange to hold on to, but after awhile I began to see some very repeatable and powerful patterns in these numbers....I have been at this game for a good while now, and have gathered much experience and knowledge during that span, and I will tell you if you are honest in your approach, and use what knowledge that you may have learned so far, when you add these numbers into you handicapping, you will be amazed how, when you respect them, they are so remarkably powerful, as they will give you a RED-light, GREEN-light, when making your plays....I am also just beginning to get the hang of the patterns, enough so, to be able to get some of those really difficult underneath horses in the gimmicks, the ones that have been eluding me all these years, the "surprisers"....That is good news for me, as I have always been weak in that department....

As a result, I am back to my near 40% winners again....Keep in mind, tho, that I am just a spot player, and I don't bet all that many races...But now, I have even more confidence in my picks, in fact more than at any other time in my "handicapping life".....

So, I believe because I have shifted my primary focus from final-times, to these powerful numbers and the "special patterns" that they evoke, that remarkably, my bottom line has dramatically changed, and they (pace-performances) are available for just the price of a program, nice....I now find myself betting fewer low price horses (still, a low priced overlay is always a bet) and I am connecting with much more confidence, on some of the biggies that in times past, I would've looked right past....Three Cheers Trackmaster !!....I think I would quit playing if these numbers were taken away from me now...:eek:

Good (especially hidden) Form, & especially "approaching good form"; a competitive or Top- TM-SR (the SR usually takes care of the final-time), proven class & ability (especially a class horse on a comeback or layoff, or a young lightly raced one),(or a horse with a new lease on life, that no one believes): and a superior Pace-pattern, and it ususally is a Green light GO....simple ?....(maybe)... I have one more thing that I use the most, but right now, it is too proprietary to share, it is that powerful....sorry.....(I call it S/L, if you can guess what that means, I will reveal the whole deal to you personally)

I listed the above things, because after getting used to the new pace-patterns, I have found that the majority of winners, all have these things in common to one degree or another....Even those "Big Bombers" that one might have thought were just freak accidents, maybe so, but most of them were possessors of a superior fraction or a powerful pace pattern, and usually hidden good form, and/or a nice Trainer-angle.....Numbers don't lie, so when you see a horse's running line and match it up with a powerful pace pattern and/or fractions, you can tell after awhile, almost instinctively, if this horse is in shape to win a race...

In regards to final times and shippers...While OffnP, has the right approach to transferring final times to another track and one would be foolish I think, to ignore the adjustment....And, TM-SR's still leaves something to be desired and has us guessing on the shippers...Thru the years I have learned a few things about shippers.....There is a always a reason for the change of tracks.....Two things that I use the most are, one a positive and one a negative.....The negative is a horse who has been racing on a big track lately, and has been caught up in some fast races and especially some back to back brutal fractions...This type (with a smart trainer) will leave the big mile and go to a lesser and smaller track for some easier fractions and some muscle relief....The "Positive shipper" is the one that I like the most, and it is a horse that has been racing in "good form" and final time and is shipping to a bigger track with more kash to be made while the good-form is still good....The "trick" (becuase you can be tricked, and even the barn connections can be tricked as well) is to be sure that the shipping horse, off of his last race, has a superior or a very competitive (for the new class/track,) 1st-half along with a very fast or superior last quarter, or two back to back superior 1st-1/4's and a competitive last -1/4, or a 3/4 time that is competive with the new tracks class and it's 3/4-times with a superior or very competitive last 1/4....No matter what ,the last 1/4 has to be very, very good, as he has to be able to finish his mile.....The emphasis on the last 1/4 cannot be stressed enough, as A fast final time in these cases is not enough......

Two more un-lated thoughts...Many handicappers think that because a horse had a damn good excuse for his loss, that he has something hidden from the people who didn't notice...For me, if a horse wasn't competitive in his last race, no excuse is gonna get him to the winners circle tonite, unless he has some superior pace patterns and/or hidden form....Some of these handicappers go on believing that because they tabbed a troubled horse and he won, that all troubled horses do well in their next start...I'll bet you that the winning troubled horse had a superior pace pattern and some nice hidden form...that is why the other troubled horses will not win, they never had it to beging with, the trouble is just an illusion and a promise of nothing to come...

Also, when a horse has a superior pace pattern and good form, he can almost always; set or overcome any pace and final time that may be thrown at him...Did you ever notice that some of your plays, horses with best final times will have their knees buckled when setting the pace or going first over, and will wilt long before they reach the wire. ?.. And, there we were scratching our heads in disbelief, saying "but he had the fastest final time"...These are the horses that did not have any pace pattern advantage whatsoever, so even tho their final time was the best, they did not win.....Now the horse with the superior pace-pattern advantage, can change his racing style (within reason) go first over, and sometimes the whole mile at that...pace pattern superiority again...Did you ever notice the plodder or closer that suddenly wires the field, or the stone-cold closer that suddenly is attacking the leader at the 3/8's ?....These are all recent superior pace-pattern horses...and often times they do not have the best final times...But, awh, you knew that....

All of the above, is "nothing new under the sun"...I just like to talk about how I view final times and fractional times, and that recently, I have a "newer way of going", and I just wanted to share that with all of you.....I love this game and enjoy the challenge of it all, even after all these years....

best,

[OffNPacing]

LOTTAKASH!!!!!!

That was very insightful and I will have to start looking for all that. I hit, sometimes a good 60% Win horses, and others around 10%. I see this stuff you posted, and am awed! Excellent post!!!! That is the type of information I was looking to see posted when I started the thread. I have no clue what S/L stands for, but I will be pondering it for A VERY LONG TIME, because, if you have any information better than what you posted, it would def. be game changing for me, as I feel as though I am missing 1 or 2 things to be complete. So you may be getting a PM soon taking some guesses at S/L lol. Thanks for the post. Hopefully we will get a follow-up or some posts from others with great information such as this!!! Thank You!!!

[Stick]

LK

I agree with you 100% concerning pace and final times. When I described earlier in this thread how I look for form lines, I am basically looking for horses that were competitive in all parts of the race. Early speed, contention during the middle fractions, and closing ability are all needed for me to consider the horse a contender. What happens many times is there is a horse who sat on the rail for 3Q and came home strong to win in his last race. He generally will have the best time in the last race. This is the type of chalk I want to bet against.

Those of you that have Balmoral SAT the 13th card can follow along. In the 6th race we have a heavy favorite #5 Chop Chop. This horse does not have a form line in his last race. All he did was sit rail and close. Many times if these horses are set out early or asked to make a brush , they fold up ( like LK said). Now look at #2 Steve N Harvey and #4 Red River Restless. Both of these horses have form lines that I am interested in. #2 was 1st over and competitive at all calls of the race. #4 was parked out in the back and continued to finish nicely. Notice the difference between his line and Chop Chop who never left the rail.

For those that do not have this race, here are the lines in crude form. All from the same race.
fractions of the race 28:4 57:1 126 154:1

Chop Chop 8-8-8-8-7-1st by a nose- no quarters parked out

Steve N Harvey 3-4-4-2-2-4th by 1 length - parked out middle quarters 1st over

Red River Restless 6-7-7-7-6-3rd by 3/4 of a length- parked out middle quarters.

Important note: horses that park out by the 2nd Q call are attempting to move early. Just because the cover flow is stalled, does not mean the horse did not try to move early.

Just my view, Stick

[OffNPacing]

LK

I agree with you 100% concerning pace and final times. When I described earlier in this thread how I look for form lines, I am basically looking for horses that were competitive in all parts of the race. Early speed, contention during the middle fractions, and closing ability are all needed for me to consider the horse a contender. What happens many times is there is a horse who sat on the rail for 3Q and came home strong to win in his last race. He generally will have the best time in the last race. This is the type of chalk I want to bet against.

Those of you that have Balmoral SAT the 13th card can follow along. In the 6th race we have a heavy favorite #5 Chop Chop. This horse does not have a form line in his last race. All he did was sit rail and close. Many times if these horses are set out early or asked to make a brush , they fold up ( like LK said). Now look at #2 Steve N Harvey and #4 Red River Restless. Both of these horses have form lines that I am interested in. #2 was 1st over and competitive at all calls of the race. #4 was parked out in the back and continued to finish nicely. Notice the difference between his line and Chop Chop who never left the rail.

For those that do not have this race, here are the lines in crude form. All from the same race.
fractions of the race 28:4 57:1 126 154:1

Chop Chop 8-8-8-8-7-1st by a nose- no quarters parked out

Steve N Harvey 3-4-4-2-2-4th by 1 length - parked out middle quarters 1st over

Red River Restless 6-7-7-7-6-3rd by 3/4 of a length- parked out middle quarters.

Important note: horses that park out by the 2nd Q call are attempting to move early. Just because the cover flow is stalled, does not mean the horse did not try to move early.

Just my view, Stick



Excellent follow up! I am truly enjoying all of your guys' views!!! Hope they keep coming!!!! This thread has had almost 400 views, so many are learning!!! Thanks, and hope you guys have more in your bags!