Exacta strategy

[Stick]

Need some help on how to put together exacta tickets with one top choice that is showing a long term profit in the win pool. Basically, after tossing unplayable races, I rank contenders and can show a profit on my top choice at MAO 3-1 or MAO 5-1 if the horse has a bad post. I am trying to make exactas in those races to take advantage. The problem is that although the horses can be ranked, I do not have an odds line on these other horses and do not know what an acceptable payoff would be, especially when I have 4 or more contenders or if there are short fields. Any help would be appreciated.

[Dave Schwartz]

What is "MAO?"

[Robert Fischer]

as long as you're not taking an MAO inhibitor, you should be fine...





:D sorry, disregard this reply

[markgoldie]

I think it's something smeared on a BLT.

:D Sorry, disgregard. Or disregard as the case may be.

[Stick]

Sorry about that guys. Minimal acceptable odds. So the horses has to be 3-1 or higher or 5-1 or higher with a bad post.

[Robert Fischer]

Need some help on how to put together exacta tickets with one top choice that is showing a long term profit in the win pool. Basically, after tossing unplayable races, I rank contenders and can show a profit on my top choice at MAO 3-1 or MAO 5-1 if the horse has a bad post. I am trying to make exactas in those races to take advantage. The problem is that although the horses can be ranked, I do not have an odds line on these other horses and do not know what an acceptable payoff would be, especially when I have 4 or more contenders or if there are short fields. Any help would be appreciated.

If your top choice is showing a long term profit in the win pool, you may not need to worry about the exacta pool at all.

[46zilzal]

Mark Cramer wrote a very good booklet called Eleven Winning Exacta Situations

[fmolf]

Need some help on how to put together exacta tickets with one top choice that is showing a long term profit in the win pool. Basically, after tossing unplayable races, I rank contenders and can show a profit on my top choice at MAO 3-1 or MAO 5-1 if the horse has a bad post. I am trying to make exactas in those races to take advantage. The problem is that although the horses can be ranked, I do not have an odds line on these other horses and do not know what an acceptable payoff would be, especially when I have 4 or more contenders or if there are short fields. Any help would be appreciated.
i assign my win odds to my horse then i select my underneath horses ..usually two or three then i consult barry meadows exacta overlay chart to see what the payoffs should be to make the bet...these payoffs are based on the win odds of the underneath horses...(after all the place is just a race to win second)....I check the track pays and make the bets on the overlaid combos

[Stick]

Robert,

I just am not getting enough races to play. I am able to do this at my home track, not every track. On weekdays, 75% of the races are cheap and not playable. So I thought it would be better to try to go after different pools in the playable races instead of betting to win on races I am unsure of. Putting together underneath horses in ex's, tri's, and supers has always been the weakest part of my game.

[Track Collector]

Need some help on how to put together exacta tickets with one top choice that is showing a long term profit in the win pool. Basically, after tossing unplayable races, I rank contenders and can show a profit on my top choice at MAO 3-1 or MAO 5-1 if the horse has a bad post. I am trying to make exactas in those races to take advantage. The problem is that although the horses can be ranked, I do not have an odds line on these other horses and do not know what an acceptable payoff would be, especially when I have 4 or more contenders or if there are short fields. Any help would be appreciated.

IMO, you are not approaching this in the correct way. What you really need to do is to make up a database, or group of records where you can study the races where this one top choice is played, and then determine which if any ranked underneath choices can be played for profitability. Please feel free to send me a Private Message if you need further assistance on this database/record collection.

[Stick]

I think you are right Track Collector. I will get started with that. Thanks

[riskman]

This should be of help to you.

http://www.brisnet.com/library/software/allnews/jul08brs.pdf

[Stick]

Thanks Riskman. This is exactly what I was looking for. I can do the math and see which contenders in the place spot offer an acceptable exacta price.

[dav4463]

How many combinations are too many?

[dav4463]

If your 4th, 5th, and 6th pick on top of your 2nd pick shows the greatest exacta profit over 1,000+ races......should you keep playing those combos or work on your handicapping to get those 4th, 5th, and 6th picks to rank a little higher?

[fmolf]

How many combinations are too many?depends on the payoffs but i generally use no more than three underneath and two on top ...two on top only if i have two nicely overlaid win horses

[Stick]

Depending on the race the number of contenders for me usually ranges from 0-6. My first choice at the right odds clearly outperforms my other contenders. This I know. So wouldn't it be wise for me to only use this horse in the win slot of the exacta?
Another question. If I play, for instance, 3 ex's in a race and my acceptable price for my lowest is $40 and I look at the board at post and it is paying $40, how do I take into account the fact that I have played 2 other ex's? I am really only getting back $36 now. Would the acceptable price now be $44?

[fmolf]

Depending on the race the number of contenders for me usually ranges from 0-6. My first choice at the right odds clearly outperforms my other contenders. This I know. So wouldn't it be wise for me to only use this horse in the win slot of the exacta?
Another question. If I play, for instance, 3 ex's in a race and my acceptable price for my lowest is $40 and I look at the board at post and it is paying $40, how do I take into account the fact that I have played 2 other ex's? I am really only getting back $36 now. Would the acceptable price now be $44?
this depends on personal preference and what your hit rate and roi is...dick mitchell in "Common Sense Betting" recommends that yes you need to be overlaid enough to cover your losing wagers...which is why i use so few combos and usually always in conjunction with my win bets....i use the exacta simply as a way to extract more value out of my win horse betting only two or three overlaid combos

[dav4463]

Anybody play up to 12 or so combos with more money on the most likely, but throwing a little on the ones that may pay $250+? Just a couple of big ones make up for the money you spend. An example would be:

$10 ex 1-2
$4 ex 2-3, 1-3, 2-4
$2 ex 1-4, 1-5, 2-5, 3-2
$1 ex 3-4, 4-3, 5-2, 5-3

Total $34, but worth it if all the combos meet your price.