Beyer "explains" the Derby

[karlskorner]

It's all a matter of position

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/sports/columns/beyerandrew

[SAL]

I agree with Beyer on this. Funny Cide will not win the Triple Crown, IMHO. He did get the perfect trip, and a better trip by at least a couple of horses may have kept him out of the winners circle.

But with some defections in the Preakness (Empire Maker, Buddy Gil) he has a shot at the second leg. I had a bet on Atswhatimtalknbout and I believe he would have been right there with a clean trip.

[rastajenk]

I had to wait until the next to last sentence for him to dispel any sense of sour grapes, but he came through for me: " I picked Ten Most Wanted, so he was doomed." :D Overall, I tend to agree with him, but, so what? Any race is likely to produce different results with a different shuffle of the cards. Thanks for stating the obvious to put it all in perspective, Andy.

[Early]

Just what the sport of horse racing needs. A journalist who explains that the winner of the only race most people know the name of basically just lucked out. Nothing like put a negative spin on things.

No credit to the winner or the winning trainer/jockey. The whole thing was just a fluke.

The race may have proved that the Illinois Derby figs were seriously inflated (no mention of that).

If he is such a brilliant handicapper and in hindsight the inside trip won the race for Funny Cide, then why on earth would he bet a horse starting 15 wide? Did he think Pat Day would hug the rail all the way around? Or did his brilliant figures show that Ten Most Wanted was probably 6 or 8 lengths the best, therefore he would win with a wide trip?

Has Beyer ever seen a track surface where the inside isn't the best part of the surface. Man, I'd love to see him go down in flames at Belmont some days.

Finally, Beyer shows no knowledge of pedigree.

[Early]

Originally posted by SAL@NETCAPPER
I agree with Beyer on this. Funny Cide will not win the Triple Crown, IMHO. He did get the perfect trip, and a better trip by at least a couple of horses may have kept him out of the winners circle.

But with some defections in the Preakness (Empire Maker, Buddy Gil) he has a shot at the second leg. I had a bet on Atswhatimtalknbout and I believe he would have been right there with a clean trip.

Beware betting against a horse who had a perfect trip next time out. If he has a good post and good tactical speed, chances are he may get a similar trip.

Bet against the perfect trip winner, if you have real reason to believe the same scenario won't develop again. Many of those golden rail, wire to wire winners at Keeneland have already flunked next time out.

Beware betting on a horse next time out, simply because he had a bad trip. Atsmyhorriblename has the running style that will always make it tough to work out a trip. Could be waiting a long time for him to get the right set up and trip to win at what will always be relatively low odds.

Bet the bad trip horse next time out, if you really believe the trip made the difference and if there is real reason to believe he will get a far better trip next time.

Of course you know all that. You are probably a far better handicapper than me. My question is, after all that rambling, who should I bet on in the Preakness?

Of course, the worst trip horse who is still unknown is Indian Express. Gets jockey change and a better break and the entire pace scenario changes.

[plainolebill]

Great stuff Early, Thanks for the commentary. I agree with everything you said. I like what some other writers have said: Funnycide probably will be good for the sport, they won't retire him from racing after this season or after his first bad race.

[ranchwest]

When you look at Ten Most Wanted's four fractions in the Illinois Derby, you find that he actually slowed significantly in the third fraction only to come up the stretch really fast. He would not get such a soft opportunity in the Derby. Sometimes final times just don't tell enough of the story.

[andicap]

I don't like Beyer's column either, but horses with outside posts have done very very well in recent Derbys.

You can't eliminate a horse based on the post position. They often get the best trip because they aren't in the middle of all the horses getting the crap beat out of them.

[azibuck]

Early, I told a friend of mine this morning the exact same things you said, including Atsmyhorriblename!!

The last part Beyer wrote about pedigree and the Belmont may be the stupidest thing he's ever written. Not only does he not know pedigree, he doesn't know Belmont (the track) or Belmont (the Stakes).

As for Funny Cide's perfect trip, umm, he still had to run it. It was his superior tactical speed that put him in that great position. Beyer implies FC loped around and just picked up the pieces. God, how far off the pace was he? Two lengths at most? That means FC ran fast early, middle, and late. It was a clean, but not easy trip. I don't think going 10f at the pace he did was "easy".

I don't know why FC "can't" win the TC. He has all the attributes people were applying to Empire Maker. The early speed to avoid trouble, and now proven (again) at a distance. It will take racing luck, but that's true for any horse. It's not like he dominated, but he, not friggin Dynever, is the best 3yo right now. Period.

[Early]

Originally posted by Netcapperazibuck
Early, I told a friend of mine this morning the exact same things you said, including Atsmyhorriblename!!

What's that they say, oh yeah, great minds think.

Was that a slow pace? Looked pretty hot up front. Peace Rules and Funny Cide both ran terrific races. It's not easy to stalk a pace like that and finish full of run. How many times have you had a horse in the garden spot, only to see a complete meltdown and the race fall apart? That is when a horse like Atswhatimtalkinbout come along and pick up the pieces. Sorry, rambling again.

Please God hear my prayer. Please enable Funny Cide to win the Preakness, so Mr. Beyer can write how unfair the race was, how lucky Funny Cide was and that at least four real horses in the race were more deserving. Then, please have Mr. Beyer attend the Belmont live and in person and have him introduced to the good New York fans over the public address system. Then we'll see who gets a tough trip.

Enjoyed your post Netcapperazibuck, thanks.

[Suff]

Originally posted by Early


Please God hear my prayer. Please enable Funny Cide to win the Preakness, so Mr. Beyer can write how unfair the race was, how lucky Funny Cide was and that at least four real horses in the race were more deserving. Then, please have Mr. Beyer attend the Belmont live and in person and have him introduced to the good New York fans over the public address system. Then we'll see who gets a tough trip.




AMEN ..........................To THAT.

[lousycapper]

Andy is a good writer and he's not about to quit his job with the WP and make betting on the horses his vocation any time soon. He'll write some more books too so he'll have money to continue gambling.

-L.C.

[SAL]

Don't get me wrong, Funny Cide fully deserved his victory. BUT-and that's a big BUT, it takes a special horse to win the TC, and Funny Cide does not have the look of a special horse to me.

I agree with the fact that Funny Cide has tactical speed, and I love betting early running horses. They are the ones that can benefit if the pace is slow or fast. Some of the best horses I've seen run (Cigar, Holy Bull, Skip Away) were early pressers. They make their trip.

The point I was trying to make is that in my opinion at least a couple of other horses would have been a lot closer with clean trips. If Funny Cide is fortunate enough to get two more clean trips against Grade 1 competition and win, so be it. I don't think it's gonna happen.

SAL

[Speed Figure]

I have not seen Beyer pick a winner in a long long time.

[tanda]

I agree with much of the above.

First, outside posts have done well.

Also, horses with tactical speed get good trips as a result of their ability not luck. Slow horses, like Atswhatimtalknabout get bad trips not by luck but due to their lack of speed.

How many times did Dollar Bill get a bad trip and his connections and supporters whine about his "bad luck"?

Beyer and others don't seem to notice that it is always the fast horses getting the "good luck" and vice versa.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by SAL@NETCAPPER
Don't get me wrong, Funny Cide fully deserved his victory. BUT-and that's a big BUT, it takes a special horse to win the TC, and Funny Cide does not have the look of a special horse to me.
SAL

Hey Sal......he doesn't have to look special etc. He just has to be better than these other horses. And have some good luck. Do any of them look special? You have to take it into context of the year he is running in.

I think this horse won because his running style suited the post position and his rider made the right decisions etc. That is why I bet him. No matter how I looked at it I figured he would be second tier down the back and able to be close to the lead down the stretch. He had shown he could run with the best horses in the race and the Favorite was going to have the toughest trip of his career. You have to size it up like any other race. If he has the same advantages in the next two.....he could win it. Enough said. He doesn't have to be magical. He doesn't have to pass any litmus test. He just has to beat this years crop. He ran the final time in the top 10 ever in the Derby. There are 119 other horses that look worse on paper now. It doesn't matter how he looks, it's how he runs, against this crop. When I looked at this race and saw that he had already competed with peace rules and Empire maker to the tune of a 4 length loss total to them in two seperate races, I knew he could compete with them. He improved a little and got the trip. At 12-1 it was damn good value. The tri was easy after that. These three stood out. :cool:

[JustRalph]

I don't know why it posted twice...disregard this one

[PaceAdvantage]

Funny Cide made his own trip, and will much of the time....nuff said.

He's now proven TWICE that Empire Maker isn't the superhorse people were making him out to be.....

Not saying Funny Cide is going to win the Triple Crown, or even the Preakness, but let's not say he doesn't derserve anything. He deserves EVERYTHING he wins and earns....

[steve fierro]

This board as usual has it right. I had mentioned to some very astute racing fans over dinner Saturday night following the Derby that Horse Racing is the only sport where it's writers slam nice performances and articles of this type would be written ( I bet Peace Rules by the way). This is why we have no heroes! You would never see a golf writer say the Masters was won because the winner had lucky putts and the rest of the field had bad luck. Beyer is also dead wrong that Empire Maker winning would be best for the sport. If Funny Cide wins the Preakness ( a very tough task), you have the Cinderella story of Cinderella stories. A N.Y. Bred going in the Belmont Stakes to try and win the Triple Crown. This would be a huge national story based on the events in N.Y. over the last couple of years. It would only be downplayed by the writers in the sport of kings themselves of course that while the rest of the nation will be getting excited and cheering for this to happen, they would make sure they would dampen the party by making sure they let everybody know he has no shot. By the way Beyer also states: He has no shot at the Triple Crown. Two things. 1.) That is a very safe call. 2.) One thing is a fact, Funny Cide is the only one that does. What else can we expect from the person who the Beyers are named after that past the top figure in last years derby at over 20/1. Karl, thanks for always posting these articles. I am always pressed for time and I know I can count on this board for this type of info. Steve Fierro

[Tom]

A NY Bred, going into the Belmont with the triple crown at stake?
This could interrupt the time/space continuum, it could initiate harmonic convergence, it could end the world.
You have to be real careful meddling with the laws of physics.
You could unleash forces of mass destruction upon the world.

:rolleyes:

[delayjf]

Don 't be so sure that FC will not be competitive, he's only had three starts as a three year old, lots of room for improvement. From what I saw in the drf, he's breed to run all day.