Ray2000
06-09-2009, 08:06 AM
I'll post this in the Harness Forum because it mostly applies to small tracks where Win pools can be quite small.
The attached spreadsheet will show how a positive Overlay can diminish to zero if you bet too much.
It assumes ones handicapping skills can predict the Fair Odds Line for a horse (and we all know how difficult that is) but given a good Line for a horse and the current Odds Board Line and Win Pool Size, it will show how the Overlay changes with your bet size.
Of course the Odds Board will change as other bets come in, but this would give an idea of your maximum bet if you had the chance to make the last bet.
As an example:
If you believe the the Fair Line to be 3/1 on a horse currently at 9/2 in a pool size of $2000 then...
You can bet up to $140 before you drive the Overlay negative. But getting 6/1 on a horse you believe to be 5/1 in a $1500 pool limits you to $30 max.
Have fun and good luck with your bets...
The attached spreadsheet will show how a positive Overlay can diminish to zero if you bet too much.
It assumes ones handicapping skills can predict the Fair Odds Line for a horse (and we all know how difficult that is) but given a good Line for a horse and the current Odds Board Line and Win Pool Size, it will show how the Overlay changes with your bet size.
Of course the Odds Board will change as other bets come in, but this would give an idea of your maximum bet if you had the chance to make the last bet.
As an example:
If you believe the the Fair Line to be 3/1 on a horse currently at 9/2 in a pool size of $2000 then...
You can bet up to $140 before you drive the Overlay negative. But getting 6/1 on a horse you believe to be 5/1 in a $1500 pool limits you to $30 max.
Have fun and good luck with your bets...