Bris Figs and Pace Visualization Test

[michiken]

Having alot of time on my hands, I constructed the attached pace graph which shows a recently run race at Evangeline Downs. The distance was 5 furlongs on the dirt.

For the purposes of illustration I have constructed two lines to graph the ability time and speed figures for all the horses. Each axis was labeled starting at the top and working downward. This produced a skewed axis set which set the maximum for ability time and speed figure. In other words, it is non linear.

For those unfamiliar with ability time it is the pace call + second fraction. It attempts to show a horse that is accelerating. It can be used to assess if the horse can get the lead.

When using bris pace and speed figures, it is only natural to assume that higher is better but sometimes one needs to read between the lines. Like all speed and pace figures, these measure static velocity. It is static because beaten lengths are measured on a photograph that only records the leaders time and every other horses figure backwards from there..

When using these figs, I also calculate my tweaks such as calculating turn time and final fraction. I constructed this as a mode of dynamic analysis (internal fractions) and generated this graph to illustrate its possible effect.

The winner of this race was the :3: who had the best early acceleration. His line on the early pace side of the graph had the greatest slope.

Your task is to use acceleration to find the place horse. When you do decide on who it is, look at the bris ability time and speed fig. This could leave you scratching your head because of the higher is better mentality.

BTW this exacta paid over $500

Good Luck

PS - No I did not have the exacta. This is one of the races that bugged me for days. I did not trust my own numbers.

[keilan]

I have no idea if I'm interpreting your chart correctly but I'll guess the "red line" horse ran 2nd

[hdcper]

Well my guess would be horse #6, with a +6 increase from Ability Time to Speed (68 minus 62), which is the largest improvement of all horses in the race.

[chickenhead]

I'll guess the 9, tho its really not enough info as to what we're looking at.

I assume this a "PP" view, you are populating this using one selected paceline from each horses historical record (their last race, maybe)...?

[michiken]

I have no idea if I'm interpreting your chart correctly but I'll guess the "red line" horse ran 2nd Hint: The colors of the lines are the same as the saddle cloth colors so you would be choosing the :1: . I also tried to place this number as close to the line as possible within the drawing.

[michiken]

After viewing the graph, I realized I had two horses listed as the 12. Here is the corrected graph where purple is no the :10: and the lime green is the :12:

DOH!:lol:

[raybo]

10. Average of the ability and speed figs?

[trigger]

>>>>>When using bris pace and speed figures, it is only natural to assume that higher is better but sometimes one needs to read between the lines. Like all speed and pace figures, these measure static velocity. It is static because beaten lengths are measured on a photograph that only records the leaders time and every other horses figure backwards from there..
>>>>>>>>>>>

Don't know if this makes any difference to your graph, but............
As far as I know, internal pace beaten lengths are estimated by a track employee.
Final beaten lengths are computed using each beaten horse's actual time crossing the finish line using a photo strip ...then the photo company computes beaten lengths by applying their time assigned to a length.

[CBedo]

My guess is the :6:. Since you said it was a huge exacta, the place horse had to be a longshot as well as the winner having nice odds, but since the winner seemed to have the best early (and the public sees that), I'm looking for a bomb underneath. So I eliminated any horses whose early or final numbers would jump out to the public. The :5: would look like he had potential, but his final numbers look abysmal and I'll toss him. I'll toss the :8: for the same reason. The :11: & :7: could be possibilities, especially if the winner burned up the other speed (as would be the :1:, but he seems to look better and thus I'm guessing would have lower odds), but I'll stick with the :6:.

[raybo]

I just snapped to that the graph is from PPs, duh!!

There are, according to the graph, 3 speed horses in the race, 3, 10, and 2. You said the 3 went on to win the race so chances are that the other 2 horses finished up the track a bit. In that case it would make sense that the show horse would be either an even runner or a strong finisher. There appears to be many even runners in the race which likely would result in pace duels behind the leaders possibly leaving the race for 2nd open to a very strong closer coming from well off the pace.

The strongest closer, that would not be involved in those secondary pace duels, appears to be the 6. The 6 is my pick for show behind the speed horse, the 3.

[michiken]

Congrats to those of you who chose the :6: who was the best late pace as the chart acceleration suggested. The exacta results (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/EVD052009USA-EQB.html#RN4) of this race were the best early/best late horses.

Attached are the numbers used to make this graph:

Considering the distance of 5 furlongs which requires high early energy, I was fooled by the ability low time of the :6:. Compared to the :3: the horse, the :6:would be (94 - 62) = 32 points behind! The :6: however had the 5th highest speed fig.

Because most of us have learned that horses must be close to the pace (higher numbers are better mentality), one would assume that the :6: would be an automatic throw out. Now examine the turn times (TT) and final fractions (FF) in the chart. The :6: has a final fraction of (68-63) = + 5.

I created this graph to illustrate how just a few bris points in the final fraction calculation can actually show a HUGE move. I also created this to illustrate that when a horse is not part of the early pace, you need to look at the final fraction a little more.

I am not sure I did justice to it but I hope you enjoyed a look beyond speed figures only.

Ken

[hdcper]

I believe it is +6 like I suggested in my earlier post. Wish I had the Bris file for that track, would like to look at the pps to see if I could determine how you derived your Ability time and such.

Interesting stuff Ken,

Hdcper

[michiken]

Look at the attached figs from the 2nd pdf. Ability was calculated:

For distances greater than 5 1/2 furlongs where there is a 4f pace fig:

(4f pace fig) + (4f pace fig - 2f pace fig)

For 5 furlong distances and less, I create an artificial pace call (APC):

Artificial Pace Call = (speed fig + 2f pace fig)/2
turn time = (APC - 2f pace fig)
ability = APC + TT
ff = (speed fig - APC)

BTW, I know that the first call at 5 furlongs is not really at 2f. I just use that slot because it is more convenient in a database.

[fmolf]

Look at the attached figs from the 2nd pdf. Ability was calculated:

For distances greater than 5 1/2 furlongs where there is a 4f pace fig:

(4f pace fig) + (4f pace fig - 2f pace fig)

For 5 furlong distances and less, I create an artificial pace call (APC):

Artificial Pace Call = (speed fig + 2f pace fig)/2
turn time = (APC - 2f pace fig)
ability = APC + TT
ff = (speed fig - APC)

BTW, I know that the first call at 5 furlongs is not really at 2f. I just use that slot because it is more convenient in a database.
in a 5 furlong race is ability time a good indicator of hidden form like it is in longer sprints?...seems to me a lot of horses can carry their speed in a 5 furlong race to the wire or almost to the wire

[Red Knave]

Congrats to those of you who chose the :6: who was the best late pace as the chart acceleration suggested. The exacta results (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/EVD052009USA-EQB.html#RN4) of this race were the best early/best late horses.
Thanks for doing this Ken. This happens so often that its automatic for me. Also, as any Sartinista knows, the 3rd and/or 4th place horse often looks like the winner in his pace makeup. So if you were looking at the super you could have put in the 10 underneath as well. It's still hard to see anything in the 7, though.

[michiken]

fmwolf,

I only select pacelines from a horses past 2 races. This often results in horses running at different distances, cutbacks, etc.

The ability time number (artificial or regular) includes an acceleration factor. The standard static numbers do not:

Look at the 2f and speed fig from the :12::

- The 90 2f pace fig is among the highest.
- The 75 speed fig is also the highest.
- Look at my artifical turn time of -8 and final fraction of -15.
- The horse carried his speed via static ratings but was a deceleration disaster based on a dynamic internal fraction rating.
-Although the horse had the highest pace and speed numbers, the hidden numbers indicate exhaustion...
- The lack of acceleration indicates that other Early horses would be better.

[fmolf]

fmwolf,

I only select pacelines from a horses past 2 races. This often results in horses running at different distances, cutbacks, etc.

The ability time number (artificial or regular) includes an acceleration factor. The standard static numbers do not:

Look at the 2f and speed fig from the :12::

- The 90 2f pace fig is among the highest.
- The 75 speed fig is also the highest.
- Look at my artifical turn time of -8 and final fraction of -15.
- The horse carried his speed via static ratings but was a deceleration disaster based on a dynamic internal fraction rating.
-Although the horse had the highest pace and speed numbers, the hidden numbers indicate exhaustion...
- The lack of acceleration indicates that other Early horses would be better.
meaning other horses were slowing down at a slower rate in the final furlong than the 12.... i did read modern pace handicapping so i know a bit about what you speak of...i am no pace expert though

[michiken]

meaning other horses were slowing down at a slower rate in the final furlong than the 12.... i did read modern pace handicapping so i know a bit about what you speak of...i am no pace expert though
The :12: horse's paceline indicates a E running style. He did not have have a turn time or ability time that would allow him to get the lead... at least in this race.

I have attached a new chart where I divided the race into predicted running styles base on abilty time. This also indicates the :12: would be running against his preferred style. E horses that can't lead often quit.

I have also highlighted in yellow the horses that had an positive acceleration factor.

[michiken]

Also, as any Sartinista knows, the 3rd and/or 4th place horse often looks like the winner in his pace makeup.
It would interesting if any Sartinista, (RDSS Spec or VAL) would also post a readout as a comparison selecting the exact same pacelines...

[BeatTheChalk]

I did not know that Bris had " Ability Time " Which proves I need to follow
the instructions .. and read them as well. Thanks for the posting