Did Frankel tell us the truth?

[Kentucky Bred]

I spent the afternoon watching the Derby with a vet friend who worked on many big horses in Lexington for some prominent farms over the years.

I asked him the significance of the 3/4 shoe that Empire Maker had to wear in the Derby on his right front leg.

He said that, while trainers do change shoes all the time to keep a horse together, we will probably know if EM is 100% during the race and not before. He said that, if EM has a problem the new shoe will be weighted different and cause the horse to bore out on the far turn before the stretch. (As he was doing during the workouts late in the week) Also, the weight difference of the shoes, even a few ounces, may cause the horse to flatten in the stretch.

When I watched the race I saw Bailey go wide on the turn (he had to anyway) which helped EM but the way he was flying I said "it's over, EM is in position to win"--- Especially with the very fast 46 and change 1/2 mile time.

This is not sour grapes as I was fortunate in the race to finally win one, but it is clear to me that EM was not 100% as reported. I think the bruised foot was a problem. Certainly running second shows he was fit to run. But we saw a horse slightly below his best and that made the difference between winning and losing.

Ten Most Wanted:

I got off of him once the hype started. I love Dollase and would have loved to see his career get the deserved boost. However, with all the commentating I did hear a few people mention that the horse had been carrying much less weight in his last few starts. However, I was saying before the race that with Day up on the horse you have one of the lightest jockeys in the country. He weighs in at around 100 pounds. The 26 or so pounds added to the horse is all DEAD WEIGHT and that is important. Live jockey weight can be shifted (and is) throughout the race as top jockeys are masters at balance. Dead weight just a drag on the horses effort. Now the horse stumbled early and never really got into it, but it is possible that this was an important factor.

Kentucky Bred

[hurrikane]

Interesting take on weight KB. I don't consider weight much at all but that is an interesting way of looking at it.

I did'nt think EM was 100% just from the way he was acting before the race. Like War Emblem in the Belmont he was not his usual piss and fire attitude and I think that really tells something of the way a horse is feeling.

[JustRalph]

I think he was ok. The problem is that since Bailey never really asked him in the Wood, we don't know how much response there would have been. He may not have pulled away any better in the Wood? The fact that he only faced 8 horse fields or less in all of his races since his 1st race was a factor for me. I figured he was going to have to work much harder to get thru this field based on his running style. I also figured Peace rules would be up close like he was. I figured that Funny Cide was going to have a track position edge coming into the stretch and it played out that way. I also thought that Funny Cide might just improve based on his form. I can't wait to see the Beyer Numbers. I thought Peace Rules beat EM for a minute, it was close. Peace rules probably improved some too.

I think maybe we have found that EM runs just about full out anyway? This was his toughest challenge so far and I think the running style is why he lost. Funny Cide isn't a better horse. He is pretty damn good, but Funny Cide had a running style that favored him in this race. Track position and the recognition of this by the rider made these horses even up for me when it came time to bet them. I was confident Santo's would be right where he was. With the prices the way they were I had to go with Funny Cide and the trifecta was a gimmie after that.

[cj]

In my opinion, if two horses have roughly the same ability, and one has more tactical speed, he is the better horse. Doesn't mean he'll win every time of course, but will usually get better trips.

CJ

[andicap]

Lets see.
EM beat Funny by half a length three weeks ago and Funny turns the tables this time. Seems simple to me: The two are very evenly matched and racing luck/position/day of race health are the key to whose turn it is.

I have NEVER (and the Raggies agree) have bought into the proposition that a horse that wins by a 1/2 length didn't give it his all. Who's to say EM would have run any faster in the Wood? If horse is a competitor like EM he'll run all out if he's fit. He was fit for the Wood so just because a jockey isn't rocking back and forth and using a whip doesn't mean the horse isn't trying his best.

One of the Raggies' major tenets is its silly to say a horse that won easily will do better next time because he "left something in the tank."
The number -- and its place in the form cycle -- tells all about the horse's effort. EM ran a big number in the Wood -- believe me he was trying his best.

[plainolebill]

I've never given that 'won with something left' stuff any weight. He just had a little too much to do yesterday. Could change next race.

[John]

Hey Guys,

are there any phone bet services that will video Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga. I can't find any.

thanks

[Hosshead]

When I heard that Frankel had given Empire Maker a LONG Brisk run, the Morning OF the Kentucky Derby, -- I figured his chances of Winning, had De-creased considerably.

Frankel Let The Fizz Out Of The Soda Pop !

[Tom]

There's a good example of the old tandem race at work.

[Early]

Originally posted by andicap
I have NEVER (and the Raggies agree) have bought into the proposition that a horse that wins by a 1/2 length didn't give it his all. Who's to say EM would have run any faster in the Wood? If horse is a competitor like EM he'll run all out if he's fit. He was fit for the Wood so just because a jockey isn't rocking back and forth and using a whip doesn't mean the horse isn't trying his best.

Thanks Andicap. I think that sounds reasonable. I believe that may be the most useful piece of advice I've seen posted here. I thought Funny Cide could turn the tables, but was looking at it more from where he was in his form cycle. I think I will take your advice into consideration from now on and see if it helps me at all. Thanks again.