Six-horse fields

[kenwoodallpromos]

As some of you may know, I love betting multiple longshots in unpredictable races; However this is about betting multiple favorites (2) in short fields! I saw 2 six-horse fields today on TV and bet the favorite (7-5, 8-5) and 2nd favorite (5-2, 9-5) in each race. A fav and 2nd fav came in, making me about 25% profit. Since I have never thought of betting both at more than even odds while the next closest was like 5-1 and I did not use handicapping, I'm asking=
AM I dreaming or can betting the top 2 in short fields be this easy?

[ryesteve]

can betting the top 2 in short fields be this easy?No, it can't. The 100% hit rate you got in your sample of 2 races isn't sustainable.

[kenwoodallpromos]

No, it can't. The 100% hit rate you got in your sample of 2 races isn't sustainable.
I should look into handicapping short fields more generally. Any suggestions of past threads, etc, where to look? Maybe I should look at each horse/PP closer? In small fields, do you think the "Trip handicapping" including running styles make a big difference? Thanks!

[ryesteve]

I should look into handicapping short fields more generally. Any suggestions of past threads, etc, where to look?I think the consensus (and I would agree) is to avoid short fields in general. There isn't enough money spread around on horses that you don't like to provide enough of an edge.

[ranchwest]

I should look into handicapping short fields more generally. Any suggestions of past threads, etc, where to look? Maybe I should look at each horse/PP closer? In small fields, do you think the "Trip handicapping" including running styles make a big difference? Thanks!

Fewer horses, fewer to beat. Also, with less traffic less usually "happens". So, the formful ability horses tend to run into the exacta quite a bit.

[Niko]

I always thought short fields would benefit the physicality player at the track the most....if you see a couple horses that don't look good the field is really narrowed. In a big field there's probably more horses that look good and that have a chance to win or finish second. On paper, it seems a lot tougher in general to find as much value in small fields as opposed to larger fields.

[ranchwest]

I always thought short fields would benefit the physicality player at the track the most....if you see a couple horses that don't look good the field is really narrowed. In a big field there's probably more horses that look good and that have a chance to win or finish second. On paper, it seems a lot tougher in general to find as much value in small fields as opposed to larger fields.

On physicality, it depends on the level of the track and race. In a low level claimer at a small track, not many will show positive physicality, even in a large field.

[Niko]

Good point, at the low levels they almost all have some sort of problem.

[Greyfox]

I refuse to play races with less than 8 horses, except a Pick 3 demands it.
Just say No.
If enough of us did that, perhaps tracks might refuse to card them.

[fmolf]

I refuse to play races with less than 8 horses, except a Pick 3 demands it.
Just say No.
If enough of us did that, perhaps tracks might refuse to card them.
i think you can do well with a little handicapping......my favorite angle is when the two favs are the only two speed horses in the race i will bet two exactas.........betting more with my preferred horse on top...if it comes my top horse on bottom i make less .....but yes i do look at running styles/early speed in small fields

[kenwoodallpromos]

The reason I was asking is that the last few days I have been noticing that in 5 and 6 horse fields, at different tracks, surfaces and distances, when the lowest 2 odds horses are each 2-1 or lower odds, seems a high % of one or the other come in. Usually less than $6 on $2 + $2 bets.
I seem to also notice some odds-on horses on top in exactas pay decent for "all" on the bottom in medium size fields.

[Robert Fischer]

I think the consensus (and I would agree) is to avoid short fields in general. There isn't enough money spread around on horses that you don't like to provide enough of an edge.

:ThmbUp:

[fmolf]

The reason I was asking is that the last few days I have been noticing that in 5 and 6 horse fields, at different tracks, surfaces and distances, when the lowest 2 odds horses are each 2-1 or lower odds, seems a high % of one or the other come in. Usually less than $6 on $2 + $2 bets.
I seem to also notice some odds-on horses on top in exactas pay decent for "all" on the bottom in medium size fields.
i do fairly wel in these type races with a little handicapping....verify the two favorites are solid.....throw out a nag or two ...then structure your exactas accordingly and bet to win on both if you can cover your losing bet on the horse that does not win

[kenwoodallpromos]

Thank you all for the replies!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think the consensus (and I would agree) is to avoid short fields in general. There isn't enough money spread around on horses that you don't like to provide enough of an edge.

Why talk yourself out of easy money with rigid generalizations??

Usually the easiest races to predict pay decent enough to capitalize on,even if it is a 6 horse field.I have had days where all I hit were 2 measly exactas at $14.60 and $24.00 and have hammered them into the ground to make more than a day's wage at actual work.Some people lose interest because a race is soooo predictable.If the prices are off in the right direction it's fish in a barrel time.Turn your back on those scenarios and the game becomes overwhelming and unbeatable.The worst case scenario normally for these races is you cash a backup ticket,cut your losses and move on to the next race.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Why talk yourself out of easy money with rigid generalizations??

Usually the easiest races to predict pay decent enough to capitalize on,even if it is a 6 horse field.I have had days where all I hit were 2 measly exactas at $14.60 and $24.00 and have hammered them into the ground to make more than a day's wage at actual work.Some people lose interest because a race is soooo predictable.If the prices are off in the right direction it's fish in a barrel time.Turn your back on those scenarios and the game becomes overwhelming and unbeatable.The worst case scenario normally for these races is you cash a backup ticket,cut your losses and move on to the next race.
I just figured if those bets hold up, either of the 2 most favs, like the other day, fav at 5 min to post went off at 6-5, 2nd fav went off at 8-5; 3 other horses were in the race, the others' lowest odds were like 4-1. Winner was the 8-5 so a clear profit. I guess you would have to hit those at 66-75% to make money! But I think I read that the 1st and 2nd favs combined on average of ALL races hit over 50% of the time, with fields averaging 7.5-8 horses.
Does anyone have the stats for 5 and 6 horse fields as to the % the top 2 win, both at odds of 6-5 to 2-1? Thanks!

[ryesteve]

Why talk yourself out of easy moneySounds like the same argument a bridgejumper would make.

Yes, no doubt there's some comfort in the high hit rate a short field will produce, but in most cases, it doesn't work for me. It's not that I've chosen to eschew profit out of a sense of sportsmanship because it's too easy. I know where I'm able to find an edge, and it's usually not in short fields.