Official PaceAdvantage.com Belmont Stakes Analysis

[PaceAdvantage]

I know you've all been wating with baited breath to hear by amazing take on the race....:lol:

www.paceadvantage.com (http://www.paceadvantage.com)

[cmoore]

Race shape figures.........................Mine That Birds late pace figs
Derby..............0...+1......................... ..late pace 113
Preakness........+7..+4........................... late pace 109

Mine That Bird actually ran a faster late pace in the Derby when the race shape was slower..So imo, it doesn't matter if the pace is a real slow..Plus Calvin is back aboard..He will run about 15 lengths back and make one big move and blow by them all late..We all know that Mine That Bird will have no problem at this distance.

[lamboguy]

Race shape figures.........................Mine That Birds late pace figs
Derby..............0...+1......................... ..late pace 113
Preakness........+7..+4........................... late pace 109

Mine That Bird actually ran a faster late pace in the Derby when the race shape was slower..So imo, it doesn't matter if the pace is a real slow..Plus Calvin is back aboard..He will run about 15 lengths back and make one big move and blow by them all late..We all know that Mine That Bird will have no problem at this distance.excellent analysis, i couldn't agree with you more. if rachel was in this race, mine the bird probably would not hit the board, without her in it, it gives him a great shot to win it. the only other horses that might win this race is kiran's horse and i hate to admit this but dunkirk. they are all saying dunkirk put his weight back on that he lost before the kentucky derby.

the belmont is my favorite race, so i hope this is a good one to watch. kinda no value to bet though.

[NY BRED]

for the most part you and I hsve taken different paths on analyzing
races.

I sent an email blast to my office picking the "other bird" and Flying
Private in this race, virtually repeating your statements!

Interesting issue is the same sire of SB and MTB , and possibly
the racing Gods will allow Kent payback for the debacle in the
last Belmont.



Only difference is I substituted Dunkirk in the show postion
and in several tri's recommended Dunkirk to beat our two
top picks, and even a light tri for Charitable Man to
split our top two.


PS: I am "live" with SB and FP in the Brooklyn/Belmont Double:jump: :jump:

Good luck :cool: :cool:

[Overlay]

PA,

I notice in your analysis that you navigated away from Mine That Bird in a search for betting value. Of course, depending on the individual handicapper's approach, Mine That Bird may well an underlay. However, short odds don't necessarily mean lack of value. I peg Mine That Bird at fair odds of 6-5 (morning line odds: 2-1), and Charitable Man at 2-1 (morning line odds: 3-1). Although I realize that either or both of them may end up going off at actual odds below my line, they were the only two horses in the field that I rated as morning-line overlays.

My point (not directed to you) is that a handicapper shouldn't disregard short-odds horses out-of-hand as a non-value play without at least giving them a look to assess their winning chances. When you can get betting value on a horse that you also rate as having a high probability of coming in first, that's a win-win situation.

[sammy the sage]

this race is like taking CANDY from a baby; hope you like CHOCOLATE....it's my favorite ;)

On cleaner dirt track...CC...will JUMP UP in performance...ala...IWR...plus he has much more tactical speed than being discussed or observed by most...he should roll by CM in the lane and be far enough in front to w/stand Bird, Bird2, and Dunkirk...maybe FP...

[rokitman]

I used Summer Bird in my pick 3's and 4's on Derby day, thinking he could be a sleeper. I was a little leery of him coming back to haunt in here when I will not be playing him. But now that PA has put the Kiss of Death on him, I can swing freely in peace! :ThmbUp:

;)

[redeye007]

charitable man folded in Keeneland on the synthetic carrying 123 pounds. I'm wondering now if it was the surface he didn't care for or was it carrying the highest weight of his career. packing another 3 pounds leaves me in doubt about him. mine that bird ran well enough in his last 2 with 126. now to just figure out the superfecta.

[Cratos]

I know you've all been wating with baited breath to hear by amazing take on the race....:lol:

www.paceadvantage.com (http://www.paceadvantage.com)


In another thread on the forum I picked in order for my choice to win the Belmont: Dunkirk, Charitable Man, and Mine That Bird.

I am not going to revisit my reasons here because those were given in my earlier post.

However I am going to challenge your statement about Charitable Man: “He came home so slowly in the Peter Pan that I can't see how in the world he wins stretching out to 12 furlongs.”

The pace of the Peter Pan by quarter is as follows with Charitable Man’s fractions in parenthesizes:

¼ M – 23.38 (23.71)

½ M – 21.51 (22.18)

¾ M – 24.04 (23.79)

1M - (25.43) (25.25)

Last 1/8 M – 12.77 by Charitable Man

Off the layoff that was a helluva race for Charitable Man and he should be even better today with the “tightener" under his belt, but my choice is still Dunkirk.

[DeanT]

I like your analysis big fella, but I do wonder why you didnt stop typing after the first paragraph and just go with the Zito speed horse?

[MNslappy]

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[surfdog89]

Had the horse in the derby.......... and love him in this race too............:cool:

[Overlay]

Way to call it, PA!

[Quagmire]

Nice call PA.

[andymays]

Good Call. The Bird is the Word!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZThquH5t0ow

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I know you've all been wating with baited breath to hear my amazing take on the race.... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:Nicely done!

[cmoore]

Nice Hit PA...You the Man!!!!

Calvin made his move to soon..They say Mine That Bird was fighting too much and he had to let him go..I thought he was home free when he took the lead..

[RaceBookJoe]

Way to pickem...guess thats why this is your board and we call you bossman. Seriously, you made a very goo case for Summer Bird and hit it. :ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

Bravo!:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Skanoochies]

Kudos, P.A. and anyone else who played him. :)

[Tom]

Bow to the KING!
KING PA nails it!

I bet the sucker in the derby....win and place.....:mad:

[WinterTriangle]

Good 'un, Pace.

We can still argue with you though, right? :lol:

[fmhealth]

Sweet one PA!! Wish I would have read your analysis BEFORE the race.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Nice pick PA!

[magwell]

CONGRATULATIONS .......:) .....Great pick.

[markgoldie]

Here was another nice pre-facto analysis in which the cold tri box was given and SB touted as a strong possible upset winner:

http://www.simulcap.com/BMT2009.HTM

[oddsmaven]

Great call...I should have read it a few more times and then you may have saved me a beating on Charitabe Man.

[Cratos]

PA, you made an excellent call and should be commended. Congratulations!!

[sammy the sage]

Excellent job P.A.....you should post RACING thought's MORE often...and LESS political... ;)

[Zaf]

Nice Job :ThmbUp:

Z

[matthewsiv]

Great Job

Well done PA

:jump::jump::jump:

[bishlap]

very nice..no red boarding ! BTW, all u Gomez fans, how's he doin? LOLOLOL

[reckless]

Congrats on a nice call.

[Donnie]

Nice job, Mike!! Hope you crushed it!!

[judd]

I know you've all been wating with baited breath to hear by amazing take on the race....:lol:

www.paceadvantage.com (http://www.paceadvantage.com)
**you should give out more selections on this forum instead of being a truant officer :D

[broadreach]

spot on :ThmbUp:

[DRIVEWAY]

Half way on the turn things were tenuous. Then the skies opened. Was it too late, you must have asked.

Question answered with a rousing rally for victory. PA congrats on your $25 score.:jump:

[Bettowin]

Very nice!

Should have paid much more but between your pick and the NY guy with the e-mail blitz to his office which was obviously picked off by the Nigerians, Indians, North Koreans and the Chinese bondholders of GM it didn't pay that bad.

Everyone needs to watch out for the e-mails tommorrow selling MTB place tickets for ten cents on the dollar:)

[NY BRED]

[QUOTE=Bettowin]Very nice!

Should have paid much more but between your pick and the NY guy with the e-mail blitz to his office which was obviously picked off by the Nigerians, Indians, North Koreans and the Chinese bondholders of GM it didn't pay that bad.

:)

Got to say, this was my best hit ever since Lemon Drop Kid, and I don't
mind saying I was cursing my luck when Charitable Man(son of LDK) started to move with Kent appearing to have no horse before entering the Stretch.

So, My office crew now has a positive ROI since the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness when I touted Papa Clem and not SB!

The weather was incredible at Belmont , and the crowd appeared
to be way smaller than uusual .

Importantly, the usual hassle with betting lines did not exist, and you could head to the windows with 5 minutes to go which is a trouble sign
for Racing on Belmont day.

Yes, I'll have to be careful next out with my picks, but again, thanks
for the thought..

[DanG]

You saw that race about as clear as anyone could have. :ThmbUp:

Great analysis Mike and your members expect the same level of excellence for the Rachel vs. Quality Road Travers. ;)

[Grits]

You rascal you, you're MIA--no where to be found in many hours now . . . . still out partying. LOLOLLLLLLLLL

[joanied]

Hey PA...:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: you nailed it...you're :1: ...at least for now;) and don't let this go to your head:D

Congrats to everyone that used Summer Bird...I kept an eye on him, put him on my pick lists, then tossed him out...my bad:(

I gotta say one thing...I am very, very happy for Kent D :jump: he finally got his Belmont:)

[nijinski]

Kudos to you PA, well done.

[rokitman]

Very nice public call :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

Thank you, thank you, thank you....lol

Seriously, that was very nice of you folks, considering it was only one race..lol