View Full Version : Official PaceAdvantage.com Belmont Stakes Analysis

06-06-2009, 04:14 AM
1) Summer Bird
2) Flying Private
3) Mine That Bird

I have to try and beat the favorites here. Mine That Bird will be tough, but no way would I bet that horse at such a short price. He's not going to get a quick pace to run at like he did in the Preakness, nor will he catch a slop fest like he did in Kentucky.

This is one very early pace-poor race. Nick Zito's Miner's Escape is the only speed here...the only horse who even came close to sniffing the lead in any of his recent races.

The 2009 Belmont Stakes is actually quite a remarkable race given the almost total lack of early speed.

And it's for that reason that I will look to beat Mine That Bird, although I feel he will be right there at the end, as he was in the Preakness. However, I also feel he will come up short for the second straight race.

As for Charitable Man, the horse everyone is touting as the big challenger to Mine That Bird, on my numbers, I hate his last race. He came home so slowly in the Peter Pan, that I can't see how in the world he wins stretching out to 12 furlongs. Yes, he sat behind very fast early fractions in that race, but he ran a career best Beyer while making his second start as a three-year-old in the Peter Pan, and he slowed down quite markedly at the end of that race.

Now we're going to ask Charitable Man to tack on another THREE furlongs in his third start off the layoff?

Don't get me wrong, he'll have the ideal running style here, tracking just off of Miner's Escape, but I will sleep well betting against him at such a short price with these kinds of danger signs staring me in the face.

Which leads me to the horses I do like...Summer Bird and Flying Private. Both will be nice prices and worth the risk. Summer Bird has the breeding to get the distance and will be adding blinkers, which may help him stick a little closer in a Belmont Stakes where it is going to be a SERIOUS disadvantage to drop way back early on. He also gets a jock switch to Desormeaux. If Summer Bird runs back to his Arkansas Derby form while sticking closer to the front end, he will be a serious threat in only his fifth career start.

Flying Private, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, jumped up and ran a big one in the Preakness, finishing a close fourth after a troubled trip. He gets a jock switch to Leparoux, although I'm not all that sure it will help a great deal given this rider's relative inexperience at Belmont Park and the mile and a half distance itself.

However, Flying Private has a running style and an ability (if he runs back to his Preakness number) not unlike Mine That Bird. Therefore, why should I take 9/5 on Mine That Bird, when for a much juicier price, I'm likely going to get a similar run out of Flying Private, plus I'm getting the expertise of trainer D. Wayne Lukas to boot.

Sounds like value to me...