back to the win pools

[bobbyt62]

been a win only bettor for 20 years (other than occasional big p6 carry day), but the 10 centers had me intrigued. had last race at holly friday where i threw the 3-2 out of second, but left him in third and fourth, and had a $30 super. liked the horse that won ($70 win also) and was lucky to have 25-1 run second. my payout wasn't much more than if i had bet it to win. worse, my small bonus on the super meant i was betting the 3-2 worse than second---i didn't like him, but a bad statistical expectation nonetheless going against him. lesson: win only, unless you take the (big) favorite off the ticket ENTIRELY.

[cmoore]

been a win only bettor for 20 years (other than occasional big p6 carry day), but the 10 centers had me intrigued. had last race at holly friday where i threw the 3-2 out of second, but left him in third and fourth, and had a $30 super. liked the horse that won ($70 win also) and was lucky to have 25-1 run second. my payout wasn't much more than if i had bet it to win. worse, my small bonus on the super meant i was betting the 3-2 worse than second---i didn't like him, but a bad statistical expectation nonetheless going against him. lesson: win only, unless you take the (big) favorite off the ticket ENTIRELY.

The ten cents super is hard to grasp on what the payout is going to be at times..It seems like Churchill is hammered down no matter what wins..Other tracks will pay over 100 bucks when the 2 favorites come in 1st and 2nd or 1st and 3rd with a couple of bombers thrown in there..Just the other day I saw a 9k 10 cents super payout... Today there was a $4,800 dollar payout for a dime..

I'm going to try and attack these 10 cent supers..I like to pick 2 singles..One horse on top then the other in 2nd, 3rd and 4th with all covering the other positions..Possibly throw out one or two runners..A 12 fi horse field narrowed down to 10 using my two singles would cost $16.80...It seems like a good strategy..LOL!!! Just have to be patient..

[ranchwest]

Every super is a different puzzle. One day I liked a near-lock (I don't consider any horse a sure lock) who was almost sure to wire the large maiden field. So, the other front running types were almost certain to tire. Just grab the closers. The second place horse was 39-1 and the dime super paid about $139 with the winner at even money. I don't remember how much I had into the super but it wasn't much, under $5. Sometimes it is easier than other times. lol

[bobbyt62]

yeah, i can see 'capping a race and putting togeteher a small ticket trying to win big. i'm a spot player--saturday had 10 bets out of almost 20 tracks looked at, sunday none out of 7----looking to win bet $50-$200. thought if i beat a big favorite that my "odds" would be better on an 'almost' all-all-all (took out three of 10 horses) ticket, especially if favorite misses ticket or runs worse than second. i had a 9-1 (win bet also) , 25-1 second, then the fav and a mid price for fourth. the cost of the ticket against the payoff was 8-1. win bet was 9-1, and i didn't have to get a 25-1 second!

[markgoldie]

Hi Bobby. I looked at the chart in question. There is no question that you ran into an aberrationally low super payout here. A look at some of the other payouts in the race will bear this out.

For example, your insight into the race was that the 8.20 - 1 shot would win and that the 1.50 favorite was unlikely to finish as high as second. Had you played the 8 other horses in the race to be second to your 8.2 - 1 horse in the exacta (excluding the favorite), your return here was 26.25 - 1 (rather than the 8.2 -1 in the win hole. You would have made 3.2 times the profit of a win bet.

The trifecta was even better. Using the same logic, you might have played the 8.2 - 1 horse over the 8 runners with the 1.5 favorite third. Here we invest the same 8 units, but receive over $743 as a payout, with an effective odds of 91.92 - 1. However, your insight was that the favorite could run third or fourth as I read it. In that case, you may have also wheeled the 8 -1 horse with the field excluding the favorite in the tri. This might have been done for a bit lesser increment, understanding that the size of a winning ticket here could be huge! But even if you did it for the same increment and with tearing up of those particular tickets as it turned out, your effective odds' return would have been almost 11 - 1, but having had a realistic shot at a major score.

The super was indeed a disappointment. Playing your insight logically would have required keying the favorite third and fourth in the super with all other horses except the 8 - 1 winner, who would remain in the top position. This paid a very disappointing 2.23 - 1, and as you said, well less than could have been made in the win pool. But this was an unfortunate fluke as the trifecta payouts indicate. As a person who generally plays 20 or more supers per day, I can tell you this was just bad luck and in a pool as large as Hollywood's, it indicates to me that the superfecta players liked a horse or horses other than the favorite among the horses that made the ticket. In this tight-money environment, where sharp money generally prevails, big box tickets are gradually giving way to the more dominant part-wheel play. A sharp superfecta player may launch a box ticket now and then but only in wide-open handicapping races. These are relatively rare. Looking at the odds' spread of this race, I do not think that's what happened here. I think there was another "hot" horse in the mix and it may well have been your winner.

Mark

[bobbyt62]

markie, very keen analysis of my decision making. thanks for taking the time to post your comments.