MY ROI - Learning about ourselves..

[Cadillakin]

This is a new feature of YouBet.. Fascinating.. I've always known my money won.. I keep track of that... but I never bothered much to monitor each specific bet category...

This is my last years play. Two reasons for posting this...

First, when I declared myself a winner of longstanding at the Del Mar Forum, I was met with much skepticism and some derision. I have to admit, though I'm a confident man, such derision is still unpleasant.. I'm no longer a kid who wishes to be a gambler.. I am a gambler.. I've been handicapping and betting for over 40 years now..

Secondly, the data serves as a good teacher and we would all do well to pay close attention to the breakdowns... As I said to one of the novice players in another thread who was asking for advice, learn what you are good at and specialize..

Here is what I see...

What I'm good at...
Grass Racing (Over 50% ROI. I knew that already. That's my strength)
Class Racing (Mdn, Alw, and Stakes, over 50% Knew that too)
Distance racing. 6.5 and beyond (Well over 50% - I'm a pedigree nut!)
Simple Betting, (Win, Doubles, Triples. The last is my strength. I knew that.)
Bejarano, Rosario and Mike Smith are my go-to jocks, with postive ROI's of 75%, 82% and 92%. and hundreds of bets with each.. No wonder I like those guys :D ) Brice Blanc is my longshot rider.. used sparingly but making over a 500% ROI with him..

Exactas and Trifectas are fairly neutral for me... (I mentioned in a thread that I waste a lot of money covering and am not a good exacta player. This proves it!) I play grass almost exclusively at Del Mar, as I got totally shelled when Polytrack started in 2007. My confidence is low there so my main track play is very sparing..

I had a slight loss on the Pro-Ride at Oak Tree, then did poorly at the beginning of Santa Anita.. I ventured out for a week to Gulfstream, got shelled, came back home. More discipline, more grass, brought me back... Overall, I'm surprised that I show a good ROI on synthetic.. The old dirt tracks were much easier for me to understand.

What I'm NOT good at...
Maiden Claimers (Minus 23 % Shocking - I thought I was pretty good),
6 furlong sprints.. (That one's an eye opener - I'm minus 23% at 6 furlongs.. At 6.5, Im plus 80%, at 7.0, Im plus 53%.. I'll have to reflect on the whys and the wherefores - that's kind of weird.)
Superfectas, Pick 4's and Pick 6's.. (Shockingly bad at Superfectas and the other complex exotics, at minus 50% or higher... I think I better skip em)
Solis, Valdivia, and Mike Baze can't seem to bring in winners for me. I'm minus 20% or so with all of them.. (Those guys better be way overlaid from now on)

Going forward, I'll adjust my gambling..

Comments and similar data from others is welcome...
http://i39.tinypic.com/zlf6vd.jpg

[InFront]

I read about that new ROI feature from Youbet but now see what it actually does. Now that is pretty cool stuff! Thanks for posting a sample page. I use to have an account with Youbet years ago when they came out but no longer do since so many other ADWs have started since then. But that is one YouBet feature which would be nice to have.

[bcgreg]

You are my hero!

Incredible betting record...much congrats!

Regards,
bcgreg

[acorn54]

i hope you are more than a two dollar bettor. it would be a waste to have that kind of r.o.i. and only be a small time bettor.

[Cadillakin]

i hope you are more than a two dollar bettor. it would be a waste to have that kind of r.o.i. and only be a small time bettor.I can assure you I bet more than $2 :D

[Oaklawn]

You need to start posting your selections in here!

[Bettowin]

Forget posting your picks. How about I give you the password to my Twinespires account and you have at it :jump:

[Cadillakin]

You are my hero!

Incredible betting record...much congrats!

Regards,
bcgreg
I want the novice and the young players starting out to know they can beat the races.. When I started out in the 60's, EVERYBODY sang the same tune.. "You can beat the race but you can't beat the races."

I thought, "I'm not sure about the logic in that one" :confused: So, Im playing the races as a teen and winning regularly.. and I tell the oldtimers after they sing that song to me... "I can beat the races!" And they scoff at me.. They laugh at me..

I remember Professor Gordon Jones being asked in the 70's if he knew anybody that could beat the races regularly and make a living at it.. Jones said, Well, over the years, I've known probably 6 or 7... I thought, well, that makes 8 because I can do it too.. I never met Gordon, but he always wrote me back when I was a kid asking him questions.. Joe Hirsch too.. Very nice to me.. Always tried to answer all my questions..

So, I don't talk about it much... Sometimes, when I was young.. I would go to a party and meet people .. I'd tell them I did something else for a living.. just so I wouldn't have to put up with the cynicism.. I tell you, I never felt like Clark Gable on the riverboat with the chips stacked high and the beautiful babes on my arms.. It's not a glamorous life.. It's a competitive and somewhat stressful life... I lost my first marriage and family because I loved the horses more than I did them.. But I'm doing better in my second marriage.. 17 years now.. For me, it's much harder to have that good marriage than it is to beat the races..

I like the work of handicapping, the thoughtfulness of it all.. the subtle competition with the other men...

You CAN beat the races.. It's not a lofty ideal or an unrealistic dream..

[Oaklawn]

Forget posting your picks. How about I give you the password to my Twinespires account and you have at it :jump:

I actually thought that, but remembered that I'm a $2 bettor!

[Cadillakin]

Forget posting your picks. How about I give you the password to my Twinespires account and you have at it :jump:
I'm laughin...

[Keene]

Great job!

[Imriledup]

You bet on some low percentage riders and show profit. Is that a strategy, stay away from Bejerano, Gomez, etc?

[Hajck Hillstrom]

.... a 32% ROI....

.... a tip o' da' handicap to you, sir.....

.... I think even Danny would be impressed.... and we both know he isn't easily impressed. :ThmbUp:

[InFront]

I can assure you I bet more than $2 :D

Those are very impressive profits. It is pretty amazing how you profits are consistent in most catagories. But the two that impressed me the most are not the tiny breakdowns of bets but that 19% for WIN and 32% overall. With almost 900 win plays with a 19% roi so far now that is excellent. What would you say your % was on those WIN plays?

Now this may sound like a silly question but what does Youbet count as a BET? For example if I played 3 horses to win on one ticket what count is that? Or if I played a tri key 1/234/234 what does that count as? In otherwords is a bet a bet or combo a combo.

[Cadillakin]

You bet on some low percentage riders and show profit. Is that a strategy, stay away from Bejerano, Gomez, etc?No strategy .. I bet Bejarano alot.. As I said, I'm at plus 72% ROI with him. Gomez, I'm at plus 39%. I don't think you should make too much of that...

First, I look for horses to win their race. Then, I look for horses that are likely to win their race AND be overlooked. I key mostly on the latter group. Second tier riders are much more likely to offer high value.. so that is something to consider, of course.

[sjk]

Looks to me like they are counting the number of tickets.

[DeanT]

First, when I declared myself a winner of longstanding at the Del Mar Forum, I was met with much skepticism and some derision.
Was it accompanied by name calling? :D

Nice stats; great feature at youbet for bettors too. :ThmbUp:

[Cadillakin]

Those are very impressive profits. It is pretty amazing how you profits are consistent in most catagories. But the two that impressed me the most are not the tiny breakdowns of bets but that 19% for WIN and 32% overall. With almost 900 win plays with a 19% roi so far now that is excellent. What would you say your % was on those WIN plays?

Now this may sound like a silly question but what does Youbet count as a BET? For example if I played 3 horses to win on one ticket what count is that? Or if I played a tri key 1/234/234 what does that count as? In otherwords is a bet a bet or combo a combo.
I think I win at about a 35% rate on my win bets.. Maybe a tad higher.

As to the second.. every time you press the "bet" button after choosing your selections, that counts as one bet.. A two horse box is one bet.. but if you were to bet them separately, 2-1 and 1-2, and press "bet" twice, that would count as two bets with Youbet.

[the little guy]

I think I win at about a 35% rate on my win bets.. Maybe a tad higher.




No kidding? What are the average odds, if you don't mind, of the winners that contribute to this unheard of percentage?

[InFront]

I think I win at about a 35% rate on my win bets.. Maybe a tad higher.

As to the second.. every time you press the "bet" button after choosing your selections, that counts as one bet.. A two horse box is one bet.. but if you were to bet them separately, 2-1 and 1-2, and press "bet" twice, that would count as two bets with Youbet.

To win 35% with a 19% roi is very impressive. This means you are showing that kind of profits on not longshots say with a 10% hit rate but even lower odds horses as wells since your average payoff on such winners is almost $7.

[cmoore]

Nice betting Cadillakin....It looks like your a west coast bettor who likes the turf and synthetic..

3568 bets
$50 average ( just a guess )
--------------
$178,400
x .32
-------------
$57,088 profit....WOW!!!!!

That's IMPRESSIVE!!!!!!!:ThmbUp:

[Cadillakin]

No kidding? What are the average odds, if you don't mind, of the winners that contribute to this unheard of percentage?
Never mind little guy.... You can ask the guys that know more than me what my average odds and percentage are.. and then you can tell me...

[the little guy]

Never mind little guy.... You can ask the guys that know more than me what my average odds and percentage are.. and then you can tell me...

Thanks for the informative answer.

[DrugS]

Comments and similar data from others is welcome...
http://i39.tinypic.com/zlf6vd.jpg

How does someone get a 890% ROI with Kazuo Fujisawa on one bet??

He's trained 3 winners in America in his career.

Casino Drive in the Peter Pan (6/5)

Casino Drive's final Breeders Cup Prep (2/5)

Dance in the Mood in the Cash Call Mile (5/2)

He's 3-for-15 in America.

[Cadillakin]

How does someone get a 890% ROI with Kazuo Fujisawa on one bet??

He's trained 3 winners in America in his career.

Casino Drive in the Peter Pan (6/5)

Casino Drive's final Breeders Cup Prep (2/5)

Dance in the Mood in the Cash Call Mile (5/2)

He's 3-for-15 in America.
If I recall, that was a $40 or $50 exacta bet, one way, in Casino Drive's prep. Paid about 9-1.

[DrugS]

It paid $5.90 for $1.

[Cadillakin]

Was there a tri in that race? If not, I hooked him up in a double..

[DrugS]

Must have been a double. The tri paid $16 for a buck.

Either way, it's kind of odd that they use multi-wins for the jocks and trainers.

[the little guy]

Was there a tri in that race? If not, I hooked him up in a double..


Maybe it was the Pick-6.

[Cadillakin]

Must have been a double. The tri paid $16 for a buck.

Either way, it's kind of odd that they use multi-wins for the jocks and trainers.
I don't much care about a bet like that.. but if you have the date of the race, I think I can look up the race and tell you exactly what I bet to get a 900% with that trainer..

[DrugS]

I just put Casino Drive into a horse search on Cal Racing's Replays to get it.

When I first looked, I didn't realize they grade the ROI for jocks and trainers by multi wins.

[Cadillakin]

I just put Casino Drive into a horse search on Cal Racing's Replays to get it.

When I first looked, I didn't realize they grade the ROI for jocks and trainers by multi wins.
I misspoke about the exacta play.. It was a single $20 double 2-3. It returned $198

[DrugS]

I see that. A double into the following race.

Those are some pretty freaky good numbers.

I do selections for a newspaper and I was able to come up with a top pick flat bet profit for a 100 day meet last year .. it was only a slight profit and it was honestly thanks to a 35/1 winner on the last day of the meet I had on top.

This year my top pick is 41-for-144 .. with a flat bet profit (return of $307.20 on $288 worth of mutuals.)

Each day I do a "best bet" which is basically the top pick who I believe is the most likely winner on the card.

And each day I do a "best value" which is basically the top pick who I believe figures to go off at the longest price.

I have shown flat bet profits both years with both of those .. and am on track again.

I'm 9-for-18 with best bets so far this year - a return of $46.40 on $36.

And 4-for-16 with two scratches with Best Value. A return of $49.40 on $32.

I did not show a flat bet profit for the overall meet my first year.

The numbers of mine are obviously impressive - but certainly don't compare with the ones you posted... and I feel like I've had a killer read on this place.

So, what does your edge come from?

[InFront]

I see that. A double into the following race.

Those are some pretty freaky good numbers.

I do selections for a newspaper and I was able to come up with a top pick flat bet profit for a 100 day meet last year .. it was only a slight profit and it was honestly thanks to a 35/1 winner on the last day of the meet I had on top.

This year my top pick is 41-for-144 .. with a flat bet profit (return of $307.20 on $288 worth of mutuals.)


If you can keep up those numbers that is still very good. I believe the mighty win bet really tells the true skills of any handicapper. And if one can show profits by playing win (without rebates) is very good regardless. Remember 99%+ of horse players lose year after year and I'm not talking rois of .90 I mean LOSE big time. And even the good cappers without decent rebates would lose as well.

Like in Cad's ROI stats. While he shows a huge roi in Pick 3's and Double this can happen with just a few huge scores whether by luck or skill. But as I posted what impresses me the most is his profit on flat win bets of 19%. And with a nice 35% cold hit rate as he claims makes it even more impressive. And not bad W/P roi to boot. To me WIN BETS doesn't skew stats.

While all these other roi catagories that YouBet provides may help an individual capper find his strong or weak spots to me the BET TYPES catagory is most important of all. Like if one finds they showed losses at a certain track or distance does that mean they should adjust their capping or even skip those catagories completely. I don't think so cause those catagories the following year may now bring in the dough.

[riskman]

No kidding? What are the average odds, if you don't mind, of the winners that contribute to this unheard of percentage?

What is the point here. The average win mutual needed to guarantee a 20% profit would be:

Win%/ Average Mutual

35 ---- 6.86

36 ---- 6.67

37 ---- 6.49

38 ---- 6.32

39 ---- 6.15

Are you saying this is impossible despite the info submitted by Cadillakin.

[DrugS]

If you can keep up those numbers that is still very good. I believe the mighty win bet really tells the true skills of any handicapper.

In my case regarding the newspaper picks .. my biggest goal for the year was to get through the 100 cards without having a single duck (0 top pick winners for the day)

In some cases I'm picking horses on top that I never would bet to win .. and in other cases I'm picking horses 2nd or 3rd that I would love to bet assuming they go off at the 20/1 to 40/1 odds they figure to.

My largest win mutual through the first 18 days is only $17.40 - and that doesn't reflect my style of betting.

I agree with you that if Cad is hitting 35% with a 19% ROI from a 859 race sample size ... that is sick.

I'm a very skeptical person .. and maybe his great edge is photoshop .. but those ROI numbers are doable by someone sharp who is on his game.

Still, making such a high volume of win bets on short priced horses without getting a rebate just seems like asking for trouble in the long run.

[DrugS]

What is the point here. The average win mutual needed to guarantee a 20% profit would be:

Win%/ Average Mutual

35 ---- 6.86

36 ---- 6.67

37 ---- 6.49

38 ---- 6.32

39 ---- 6.15

Are you saying this is impossible despite the info submitted by Cadillakin.

Since 2005 ... Robert Cole owned horses racing at Charles Town are 348-for-745 (47% wins) with a $2.23 ROI

The numbers are even a little better when the hop goddess Stephanie Beattie - and/or her boyfriend David Wells are doing the training.

[Cadillakin]

I see that. A double into the following race.

Those are some pretty freaky good numbers.

I do selections for a newspaper and I was able to come up with a top pick flat bet profit for a 100 day meet last year .. it was only a slight profit and it was honestly thanks to a 35/1 winner on the last day of the meet I had on top.

This year my top pick is 41-for-144 .. with a flat bet profit (return of $307.20 on $288 worth of mutuals.)

Each day I do a "best bet" which is basically the top pick who I believe is the most likely winner on the card.

And each day I do a "best value" which is basically the top pick who I believe figures to go off at the longest price.

I have shown flat bet profits both years with both of those .. and am on track again.

I'm 9-for-18 with best bets so far this year - a return of $46.40 on $36.

And 4-for-16 with two scratches with Best Value. A return of $49.40 on $32.

I did not show a flat bet profit for the overall meet my first year.

The numbers of mine are obviously impressive - but certainly don't compare with the ones you posted... and I feel like I've had a killer read on this place.

So, what does your edge come from?
My friend would see me picking these horses day after day.. and say; How do you f***ing do that? I'd just laugh and say.. "I'm not sure." I told him the truth.. I'm just not sure..

I don't know how to respond to your question... It's not that I'm reluctant, but I really don't know what to say.. Perhaps you have something more specific I can respond to?

[Cadillakin]

What is the point here. The average win mutual needed to guarantee a 20% profit would be:

Win%/ Average Mutual

35 ---- 6.86

36 ---- 6.67

37 ---- 6.49

38 ---- 6.32

39 ---- 6.15

Are you saying this is impossible despite the info submitted by Cadillakin.
riskman..

I'm used to all the geniuses telling me what I'm capable of doing and not doing... It doesn't bother me.. As you know... little man wasn't interested in getting any information from me.. It was just his feeble attempt to diminish me by saying that what I'm claiming is impossible..

Thank you for your simple chart and logical reading of the data...

[Bettowin]

Maybe you can help to simplify.

Over what timeframe were your results?

Instead of ROI and all the categories shown can you say if you started at X day with $1,000 and ended X days later or at X date how much did you have in your $1,000 bankroll?

That is what would catch my attention if I were just starting and wondering if the game was beatable.

If you are wondering, my Twinspires offer still stands:)

[Cadillakin]

Maybe you can help to simplify.

Over what timeframe were your results?

As per the attached chart.. the data begins on June 4, 2008 and extends to the present day... One full year.


Instead of ROI and all the categories shown can you say if you started at X day with $1,000 and ended X days later or at X date how much did you have in your $1,000 bankroll?

I don't understand? I suppose the rate at which my bankroll grows or contracts, theoretically speaking, is subject to the plays that I make... The results can vary in any frame in time, of course. But generally, as per the data chart, it will grow $300 for every $1000 I bet...


If you are wondering, my Twinspires offer still stands:)
I wasn't wondering :)

[DrugS]

My friend would see me picking these horses day after day.. and say; How do you f***ing do that? I'd just laugh and say.. "I'm not sure." I told him the truth.. I'm just not sure..

I don't know how to respond to your question... It's not that I'm reluctant, but I really don't know what to say.. Perhaps you have something more specific I can respond to?

I was just looking for something you're doing that gives you such a tremendous edge that's reflected in the stats you've posted over the past year.

If you tell me you've been that dominant from that big of sample by just studying the pp's and relying on sound handicapping, guile, and experience I'd be a little shocked.

I've had some great dominant sustained betting runs but they've always come because I had made monster edges from highly tedious...borderline cruel.. hard work... and had the great analytical skill to make good of the info overload.

But you start losing contact with the rest of the world and your life gets away from you to the point that you are oblivious to everything and everyone but the work and playing the card. And when you get a whole bunch of cash saved up you take short cuts or lose the heart.

When you say you're not sure ... I'm just assuming you're doing what you've been doing all these years.. but just happen to be tremendously locked in for quite a while now?

[DanG]

These are just remarkable numbers; thanks for posting and MAJOR congratulations. A 30% hit rate / 19% profit ratio is as high on the food chain as I've seen over a sustained period.

I don’t quite understand how its extrapolating Jky / Trn ROI’s etc through exotics; but I did just glanced at it.

Still; the most overlooked “angle” in betting horses is record keeping. Ask new HANA exec Mike Maloney sometime about his record keeping. Last I heard it was a good hour each day. (mostly for tax ramifications)

If you 'really want to improve your bottom line; get serious about record keeping. You will be SHOCKED at what it brings your game and mental stability after a relatively short time.

Big step forward for Youbet who is providing some pretty good overall service imho.

[Cadillakin]

If you tell me you've been that dominant from that big of sample by just studying the pp's and relying on sound handicapping, guile, and experience I'd be a little shocked.
Yeah, sound handicapping, more or less.. If you're shocked, it's because you were somewhat unaware of who the competition is and what they are capable of.. Not everybody that can handicap is working in media or touting their picks..

I've been around quite a while.. I'm a consistent winner over more than 30 years.. I'm 56 now. I quit school at 15, and went off to work at the racetrack, so I had an early start... That didn't last long because I was more interested in betting winners than mucking stalls..

10-12 years ago, I hung out in Usenet and fought with the touts in the horse racing group.. I tried to keep the theme on racing and handicapping.. Ultimately, I lost that war... There was a guy in the groups named Michael J.. a brilliant handicapper.. speed guy.. Michael was a good record-keeper. I am not.. I only kept my ROI. How much money am I making and how much am I spending.. That's what I tracked.. If my memory is accurate.. one time Michael was lecturing/posting about win betting, stating that "nobody" wins more than 6 or 8 percent on win bets - I think that was the number he used.. I was winning at over 25 percent on my win bets for years.. I didn't say anything.. I just thought.. "Hmm.. I guess I'm a pretty good handicapper." You see, back then, we didn't really know how well the others did. As you know, the internet has made this kind of information more accessible.. But back in the day, as we saw it, most who claimed victory were just exaggerating. And the others who were really winning weren't talking much..

Frankly, I was very surprised when seeing that Youbet data that my ROI on synthetics is 22%... because I've been having difficulty understanding Pro Ride and Polytrack. My first meeting at Del Mar's Polytrack was an unmitigated disaster.. Definitely, my ROI on the main track has gone down quite a bit since the advent of synthetics.. MY ROI on grass has been high for many years... My first 5-10 years of handicapping, grass was my weakness.. especially Hollywood where speed never lasted.. but I turned it around.. I didn't quite get it that there were different qualities required on the turf.. At present, that's where my skill as a trip handicapper is best utilized.. I touched on it a little in the thread, Turf Sprints..

I barely glance at a Beyer number.. Only to assure myself that the speed guys will be going one way while I'm planning another, do I take a peek..

I'm a seasoned and knowledgeable pace handicapper.. Everybody that wins must have those fundamentals down pat.. Regarding speed or making numbers, I don't do it.... It is only the raw speed.. the gate speed, the burst, that is significant to me.. Then I use my knowledge of pace/class to ascertain energy in reserve or dispersed, and I integrate that with the jockeys management skills. Currently, Joel Rosario is the newest member of the master class and a guy who puts money in my pocket. His ability to retain and disperse energy, as needed, is a system in itself. Yes, he makes some mistakes taking too much of a hold, like Garrett does, but on the whole, he is a level above most of the guys he rides against. Follow that guy.. learn what he does well and on what kind of horse and you can make a good profit.. Those guys who do it well.. Bejarano, Smith, Gomez, and Rosario carry out my strategies.. So, I'm not one of those, "Any jockey can win on any horse" guys. But ask me if I want Gomez or Martin Garcia on that front runner, I'll take Garcia and twice the price.. He can handle that job as well as Gomez.

I'm quite knowledgeable on pedigree.. I was an ardent student of Franco Varola, the sociologist-lawyer who created the categories of dosage for the purposes of breeders understanding the "component parts" of the thoroughbred race horse. He wrote the brilliant, "Typology of the RaceHorse." It's a very advanced book, but ultimately the most satisfying I ever read on breeding.. I labored over it and didn't really understand it all that well for a few years.. Sometimes I would reread the same page slowly trying to grasp the meaning within... In fact, I drew Steven Roman into a pretty substantial argument in Usenet so that I could sharpen my skills and accuse him to his face of pilfering the work of Varola. He called me an arrogant asshole.. I called him an ungrateful thief.. In any event, incorporating that learning and understanding of the horse into my handicapping has perhaps given me an edge in understanding the thoroughbred.. Applying it to my handicapping probably helps me with better guesses about who can and who can't..

And a few stories I don't get to tell much ...On second thought, I'll send those to you in private..

[Cadillakin]

By the way, to the breeding geeks.. I'm well aware of Vuilliers original contributions to what is presently called the dosage system... I didn't mention him purposely.. to save time and words..

[Cadillakin]

These are just remarkable numbers; thanks for posting and MAJOR congratulations. A 30% hit rate / 19% profit ratio is as high on the food chain as I've seen over a sustained period.

I don’t quite understand how its extrapolating Jky / Trn ROI’s etc through exotics; but I did just glanced at it.
Thanks Dan.. I've already come to respect you in my short time here.. It was very apparent, upon my first reading, that you are one of the guys to learn from. I'll be interested to read more of your posts..

[DeanT]

Caddy, your story is my story, except for all the technical stuff. I kick ass on big beyers when I like the jockey's colors :)

These are just remarkable numbers; thanks for posting and MAJOR congratulations. A 30% hit rate / 19% profit ratio is as high on the food chain as I've seen over a sustained period.

I don’t quite understand how its extrapolating Jky / Trn ROI’s etc through exotics; but I did just glanced at it.

Still; the most overlooked “angle” in betting horses is record keeping. Ask new HANA exec Mike Maloney sometime about his record keeping. Last I heard it was a good hour each day. (mostly for tax ramifications)

If you 'really want to improve your bottom line; get serious about record keeping. You will be SHOCKED at what it brings your game and mental stability after a relatively short time.

Big step forward for Youbet who is providing some pretty good overall service imho.

What do you do with yours Dan? I am not sure what to do with mine at times. For low hit rate bets I could have quit them several times, but then I hit something and I move into decent territory. I find I play longer shots on tris, rather than using chalk, looking for an edge so my hit rate with those is bad, however when I hit one the bankroll goes up.

One thing I did do recently was find I was losing money on bets below 2-1, over two full years so I have really watched myself there.

Anyhow, any record keeping and analyzing tips are appreciated.

[Cadillakin]

While all these other roi catagories that YouBet provides may help an individual capper find his strong or weak spots to me the BET TYPES catagory is most important of all. Like if one finds they showed losses at a certain track or distance does that mean they should adjust their capping or even skip those catagories completely. I don't think so cause those catagories the following year may now bring in the dough.
I really agree with that.. I think for me.. the best compromise is to recognize those races that I do not have success with, and then apply more discipline.. Wait for something in my wheelhouse, so to speak...

As an example.. I'm really not too interested in playing the low priced claimers.. as I don't like the hassle of guessing their changing racing condition.. #4, back in 8 days, #6, hasn't worked in 5 weeks, #9 off a layoff of a year, etc.. But I will keep my eye open for a sharp speed play at the right distance.. and I will have a positive ROI on those races too, even though I don't like them.. So, I don't rule anything out, even when I notice that some of these categories are not my strengths..

I'll just be more thoughtful about throwing money into those pools..

[DanG]

What do you do with yours Dan? I am not sure what to do with mine at times. For low hit rate bets I could have quit them several times, but then I hit something and I move into decent territory. I find I play longer shots on tris, rather than using chalk, looking for an edge so my hit rate with those is bad, however when I hit one the bankroll goes up.

Today’s a perfect example Dean at Belmont; before I kept score I was “convinced” I killed in the mud. I was right, but it was suicide! :bang: Leaking money like the treasury department and until it was in black and white (or actually a spreadsheet and later Access) I was completely delusional.

Reviewing ticket structure and tax records is where most of the time is spent. In the beginning all the usual surf, class, dist, odds ranges circuit details to get a handle on my strengths & weaknesses and in the last few years a monthly system for monitoring spot plays.

A few years ago I added a short memo field to the race ledger and just jot down and overview my thinking going into the sequence (serial bets mainly). Its been very interesting to go back over time and see the pre-race thinking and while I know its not a revelation, clearly the more confidence I have evaluating bad favorites, the greater the returns. HTR has just come out with a new tool for this purpose that is dynamite btw.

All the insight about your own play it reveals can be powerful, but I think the best thing it’s done for me is peace of mind. Besides knowing if and when another audit hits I’m prepared, when the dry spells happen it’s reassuring to go over the past and see its just part of the process. Doesn’t make them any more enjoyable, but it can also point out consistent seasonal patterns you were unaware of.

There a pain; I’m not going to lie about it. Especially after a losing run the last you want to do is reenact the torment late at night, but now with YouBet etc doing some of the busy work for people, there is little excuse not to gain the edge.

Well; this is one of those posts when I had a clear direction when I started typing and after doing some other work it turned into a mess. :D Hopefully I can get back to this later and be a little clearer.

[lansdale]

This is a new feature of YouBet.. Fascinating.. I've always known my money won.. I keep track of that... but I never bothered much to monitor each specific bet category...

This is my last years play. Two reasons for posting this...

First, when I declared myself a winner of longstanding at the Del Mar Forum, I was met with much skepticism and some derision. I have to admit, though I'm a confident man, such derision is still unpleasant.. I'm no longer a kid who wishes to be a gambler.. I am a gambler.. I've been handicapping and betting for over 40 years now..

Secondly, the data serves as a good teacher and we would all do well to pay close attention to the breakdowns... As I said to one of the novice players in another thread who was asking for advice, learn what you are good at and specialize..

Here is what I see...

What I'm good at...
Grass Racing (Over 50% ROI. I knew that already. That's my strength)
Class Racing (Mdn, Alw, and Stakes, over 50% Knew that too)
Distance racing. 6.5 and beyond (Well over 50% - I'm a pedigree nut!)
Simple Betting, (Win, Doubles, Triples. The last is my strength. I knew that.)
Bejarano, Rosario and Mike Smith are my go-to jocks, with postive ROI's of 75%, 82% and 92%. and hundreds of bets with each.. No wonder I like those guys :D ) Brice Blanc is my longshot rider.. used sparingly but making over a 500% ROI with him..

Exactas and Trifectas are fairly neutral for me... (I mentioned in a thread that I waste a lot of money covering and am not a good exacta player. This proves it!) I play grass almost exclusively at Del Mar, as I got totally shelled when Polytrack started in 2007. My confidence is low there so my main track play is very sparing..

I had a slight loss on the Pro-Ride at Oak Tree, then did poorly at the beginning of Santa Anita.. I ventured out for a week to Gulfstream, got shelled, came back home. More discipline, more grass, brought me back... Overall, I'm surprised that I show a good ROI on synthetic.. The old dirt tracks were much easier for me to understand.

What I'm NOT good at...
Maiden Claimers (Minus 23 % Shocking - I thought I was pretty good),
6 furlong sprints.. (That one's an eye opener - I'm minus 23% at 6 furlongs.. At 6.5, Im plus 80%, at 7.0, Im plus 53%.. I'll have to reflect on the whys and the wherefores - that's kind of weird.)
Superfectas, Pick 4's and Pick 6's.. (Shockingly bad at Superfectas and the other complex exotics, at minus 50% or higher... I think I better skip em)
Solis, Valdivia, and Mike Baze can't seem to bring in winners for me. I'm minus 20% or so with all of them.. (Those guys better be way overlaid from now on)

Going forward, I'll adjust my gambling..

Comments and similar data from others is welcome...
http://i39.tinypic.com/zlf6vd.jpg

Cadalllakin,

Thanks for starting a very interesting thread and congrats on your performance. Although you don't mention it, just wondered if the Sartin Methodology figures into your play since I came across some contributions you had made to the group's journal 'The Follow Up', about 10 or 15 years ago.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Cadillakin]

Cadalllakin,

Thanks for starting a very interesting thread and congrats on your performance. Although you don't mention it, just wondered if the Sartin Methodology figures into your play since I came across some contributions you had made to the group's journal 'The Follow Up', about 10 or 15 years ago.

Cheers,

lansdale
Hi lansdale...

No. Never had anything to do with Sartin.. Never purposely did I write in their journal.. at least I don't think so.. You're the second guy that has asked me something about writing for Sartin. I did do quite a bit of writing for a couple of websites in that time frame, one a handicapping site.. The fellow on the handicapping site saw my writing in Usenet and asked for permission to publish some of it.. I allowed it.. Maybe that's it? If it's mine, at least it's credited.

If you can track it down, copy it, I'll know if it's mine.. I've seen my writing in other places.. with and without my permission..

[DrugS]

If you're shocked, it's because you were somewhat unaware of who the competition is and what they are capable of.. Not everybody that can handicap is working in media or touting their picks..

An alarming number of the people in the press or touting are comically bad.

I do have respect for the competition I'm betting against in terms of the money bet. I find it difficult to turn a profit using common sense handicapping without the aid of trip handicapping, making pace and final time figures, studying trainer and jockey stats, as well as pedigree and watching thousands of unnamed 2-year-olds breeze under track at various auctions gives me a big edge in 2yo maiden races.

[InFront]

[QUOTE=Cadillakin]I really agree with that.. I think for me.. the best compromise is to recognize those races that I do not have success with, and then apply more discipline.. Wait for something in my wheelhouse, so to speak...
QUOTE]

Cadillakin,

Couple questions:
1. Do you mainly bet with YouBet and other ADWs or sometimes even make plays in person somewhere?

2. If you do bet through ADWs daily I recently started a thread "How trusting are ADWs" and with that in mind do you ever worry about some employee/teller piggybacking your plays everday which can be done especially if you are a consistent profitable player year after year? Check out that thread and you'll know what I mean.

Thanks.

[Cadillakin]

I really agree with that.. I think for me.. the best compromise is to recognize those races that I do not have success with, and then apply more discipline.. Wait for something in my wheelhouse, so to speak...


Cadillakin,

Couple questions:
1. Do you mainly bet with YouBet and other ADWs or sometimes even make plays in person somewhere?

2. If you do bet through ADWs daily I recently started a thread "How trusting are ADWs" and with that in mind do you ever worry about some employee/teller piggybacking your plays everday which can be done especially if you are a consistent profitable player year after year? Check out that thread and you'll know what I mean.

Thanks.
1. Youbet only now.. I went to a live track once last year.. Im not close anymore..

2. Yeah, I do worry about that.. I worried about it before your thread and I worry about it after your thread.

[InFront]

1. Youbet only now.. I went to a live track once last year.. Im not close anymore..

2. Yeah, I do worry about that.. I worried about it before your thread and I worry about it after your thread.

It's so tough to beat and win longterm at this game as it is that even if you are one the handful to squeak out a profit even with decent size horse pools it can be wiped out quickly with others "stealing" your plays. Maybe not to much with win bets but say you hit a nice pick 3 here or there and now some "piggybacker" also sent in the same bets splitting the pool even more.

This was one thing I always thought about cause I know with computer technology and some knowledge it can be done. Just get access to accounts, see who is winning and constantly withdrawing and not depositing and there is your free ride. Now just somehow access their accounts thoughout the day and send in the same bets on another bogus account. In my opinion when it comes to money and a human nature "cheating" will happen if there is a way to make even more money on the side than working at some ADW for a just weeks pay?

[Cangamble]

I'm curious. Do you get rebates at Youbet, and are they included in the ROI report?

[Cadillakin]

I'm curious. Do you get rebates at Youbet, and are they included in the ROI report?
No rebates are offered to California players...

[andymays]

No rebates are offered to California players...


I believe that the rebate policy has either changed or is about to change officially. The was a question about this earlier in the year when XpressBet was offering a 2% rebate if wagers were placed at certain Tracks like Santa Anita.

By the way I've got to admire the guys who are patient enough to keep detailed records like DanG and Dean T. My biggest weakness as a Handicapper is Patience, then Money Management, and Consistency. Although I have made some nice scores in my time I am glad to be on this Board because of the some of the "Sharp Handicappers" that post here. In my opinion sharing some of our experiences makes us all a little better!

[Cadillakin]

When I started this thread, I had no idea that my stats are so good as everybody suggests. I never paid much attention to any of it.. I knew only that I've been a good handicapper and a winner for many years...

Nor did I realize that this thread would be all about me.. I'm SURPRISED not one other player has offered their stats to the group for discussion... I think a few of you are winners.. and others of you are shy to put forth your stats because youre not a winner...

Here's the thing.. If you're NOT a winner and you want to be one.. you have to look at yourself in the mirror and admit what you are, what you can and can't do. You have to admit that many of the plays you make are baseless stabs with no data or logic, or your methods are not working..

For me, after learning the basics of handicapping, it was all about discipline.. learning to pick my spots. I knew what I should be doing - passing.. but I played anyway... My catharsis - about 32 years ago.. was a girl in trouble, a friend in an abusive marriage who needed help getting out and I didn't have the ability to help her.. When I made every bet, I thought if I'm stupid and just play around here, I'm not going to be able to give her the assistance she needs...

And that made a difference... I waited and caught a few winners and I was able to offer her some help.. I was proud of myself.. I was playing like a winner.. Then, I knew what I was capable of doing..

How about you guys? Is there any inclination for self reflection here and making a declaration of what you will do henceforth? To help yourself? When I quit smoking after 30 years ago, I told my young daughter.. You know what daddy is going to do now? She said, What? I said, Im going to smoke this last cigarette and never ever smoke another one... I said, Do you believe me? She said, Yes! She was the only person that ever believed me when I said I would quit smoking.. Both of my wives learned that I often said it, but never did it.. They laughed at me when I claimed I would quit...But when my 5 year old daughter said yes, I found the strength to do it..

The thread is called MY ROI, learning about ourselves.. Is there nobody else here that wants to step forward and tell us who they are as a gambler...

[Cadillakin]

I believe that the rebate policy has either changed or is about to change officially. The was a question about this earlier in the year when XpressBet was offering a 2% rebate if wagers were placed at certain Tracks like Santa Anita.

By the way I've got to admire the guys who are patient enough to keep detailed records like DanG and Dean T. My biggest weakness as a Handicapper is Patience, then Money Management, and Consistency. Although I have made some nice scores in my time I am glad to be on this Board because of the some of the "Sharp Handicappers" that post here. In my opinion sharing some of our experiences makes us all a little better!
I agree..

But I won't play Xpressbet because they won't use the same process to send my winnings as they do to fund my account... They send me f****** checks and I have to go to the bank and deposit them.. Just put the f****** money in my account the same way you took it out... Knuckleheads!

It's some kind of stupid strategy of keeping our money as long as they can.. But it irritates the hell out of me.. They won't be seeing a nickle from me..

[andymays]

This year I'm probably down a little for the year. Ever since I Want Revenge was scratched on Derby morning I've been running bad. I don't use You Bet so I can't print out the same stats that you have. I do use Twin Spires that has something similar but I spread my bets out between TVG, XpressBet, and Twin Spires, and occasionally go to Satellite or to live racing.

Santa Anita was always my favorite until the Pro Ride (Hocus Pocus Junk in my opinion). I made my biggest score there(only ticket with 6 for over 500k) and what I consider my best bet ever(a $200 wp parlay for over 50k). Since Pro Ride my scores have been cut down significantly.

As I said earlier I am not consistent or disciplined and do not manage my money well. Being weak in any one of those areas is trouble enough but being weak in all three is a recipe for disaster. I am improving though and I would expect to have it right about a month before my funeral!

[Cadillakin]

To be fair, many of you are recreational gamblers... so winning is not so important as is the pastime of handicapping and playing.. I have a couple of friends like that... one a brilliant English professor with a love of handicapping. He is plenty happy if he can play and break even...

But still, wouldn't it be better to make 3 bets of $30 on well considered horses, instead of 9 bets of $10, half of them nags of moderate to no-chance... Win some money, buy your wife or kids a present...

That's better than losing.. Ain't it?

[Cadillakin]

This year I'm probably down a little for the year. Ever since I Want Revenge was scratched on Derby morning I've been running bad. I don't use You Bet so I can't print out the same stats that you have. I do use Twin Spires that has something similar but I spread my bets out between TVG, XpressBet, and Twin Spires, and occasionally go to Satellite or to live racing.

Santa Anita was always my favorite until the Pro Ride (Hocus Pocus Junk in my opinion). I made my biggest score there(only ticket with 6 for over 500k) and what I consider my best bet ever(a $200 wp parlay for over 50k). Since Pro Ride my scores have been cut down significantly.

As I said earlier I am not consistent or disciplined and do not manage my money well. Being weak in any one of those areas is trouble enough but being weak in all three is a recipe for disaster. I am improving though and I would expect to have it right about a month before my funeral!
As Tom Petty said... WAYAAATING IS THE HARDEST PART...

I understand and thanks for your response...

[Grits]

Cadillakin, I have a feeling we may know the same brilliant English professor, along with another one or two others from Usenet days.

I seldom speak of friends or acquaintances in a venue such as this, still, like they say, "small world" -- especially so, when one is talking horseplayers, particularly long time ones.

You have an intersting thread going here, but, its Belmont Day and a fine card.

Good luck today.

To be fair, many of you are recreational gamblers... so winning is not so important as is the pastime of handicapping and playing.. I have a couple of friends like that... one a brilliant English professor with a love of handicapping. He is plenty happy if he can play and break even...

But still, wouldn't it be better to make 3 bets of $30 on well considered horses, instead of 9 bets of $10, half of them nags of moderate to no-chance... Win some money, buy your wife or kids a present...

That's better than losing.. Ain't it?

[Cadillakin]

Cadillakin, I have a feeling we may know the same brilliant English professor, along with another one or two others from Usenet days.

I seldom speak of friends or acquaintances in a venue such as this, still, like they say, "small world" -- especially so, when one is talking horseplayers, particularly long time ones.

You have an intersting thread going here, but, its Belmont Day and a fine card.

Good luck today.
Nah, it's not Nash.. It's a local friend of 40 years... My oldest friend. I would like to check on Sydneyman from the old days... I wonder how he is doing?

Good card, yes.. but I wasn't suggesting anybody stop what they are doing to post.. this thread has been up for a few days now..

I was just hoping for a little more participation from others ...

[andymays]

Nah, it's not Nash.. It's a local friend of 40 years... My oldest friend.

Good card, yes.. but I wasn't suggesting anybody stop what they are doing to post.. this thread has been up for a few days now..

I was just hoping for a little more participation from others ...


Cadillakin, you may have more than a few here "Off Stride" because of your success!

[markgoldie]

Hey Cad;

Sorry to be late to the party (thread) so to speak. Brilliant numbers! Well better than mine. I play complex gimmicks only and have a complete computer breakdown on everything I do. My trick is to keep pumpimg in the volume, but that's much easier when you play large spreads in gimmicks. My only other advantage is that it might be harder for me to affect payouts in the same way a win bettor might. But playing in Socal helps you in that respect.

Anyway, win ROI being the current Holy Grail of handicapping, and in my opinion with good reason, it appears you have virtually flabbergasted the forum. Me included. Keep up the good work! Mark

[m001001]

With your ROI, you could bet a very substantial amount safely, and qualify you for the best pari mutuel rebate.

Why bet with Youbet?!

[Cadillakin]

With your ROI, you could bet a very substantial amount safely, and qualify you for the best pari mutuel rebate.

Why bet with Youbet?!
Because I think TVG is the Mickey Mouse Club and Xpressbet, as mentioned on the previous page sends me f****** checks that I have to go cash...

Youbet has always treated me fairly... In fact, they treat me great... and they have never made a single mistake on my betting..

I'm loyal to them..

[Grits]

Nah, it's not Nash.. It's a local friend of 40 years... My oldest friend. I would like to check on Sydneyman from the old days... I wonder how he is doing?

Good card, yes.. but I wasn't suggesting anybody stop what they are doing to post.. this thread has been up for a few days now..

I was just hoping for a little more participation from others ...

Certainly not, I'm sure you weren't. Still, much good luck today.;)

[m001001]

I have not used Youbet for many years, except an occasional bet to check out their new features. After reading your post, I placed a few bets on lad & cd yesterday just to see the report.
From yerterday's experiement, I am very sure the number #Bets field is the number of individual combination, not a betline. E.g. exa 2 on top with 1, 3, 4 would count as 3 bets in the stat.

[InFront]

I have not used Youbet for many years, except an occasional bet to check out their new features. After reading your post, I placed a few bets on lad & cd yesterday just to see the report.
From yerterday's experiement, I am very sure the number #Bets field is the number of individual combination, not a betline. E.g. exa 2 on top with 1, 3, 4 would count as 3 bets in the stat.

I asked Cad that very question and at first thought it may be a silly one but now maybe not. Cause you now say opposite of what he said. I would think more your way in that if I played a 1/234/234 tri it should be counted as 6 BETS/PLAYS/COMBOS not one single bet as he said.

While ROI tells the bottomline it still would be nice to know the exact number of bets/combos/plays you made. For example if I played 2 horses to win in 400 races on the same ticket for the year I think it should be counted as 800 win bets for the year not 400. Just the same as boxing 3 horses all the time in exactas not shown as one bet ticket but 6 bets a pop. Same goes for Doubles and Pick 3's. So who is correct?

[Cadillakin]

I have not used Youbet for many years, except an occasional bet to check out their new features. After reading your post, I placed a few bets on lad & cd yesterday just to see the report.
From yerterday's experiement, I am very sure the number #Bets field is the number of individual combination, not a betline. E.g. exa 2 on top with 1, 3, 4 would count as 3 bets in the stat.
My mistake... I didn't give it much thought..

When I play doubles or triples, I play very few combos.. so that column looked about right to me... but I can see now from my pick 4 totals that you are correct.. It says I played 279 bets.. Well, I play the pick4 very rarely, maybe once a month, so that's proof of it...

You're right. I was wrong.

[InFront]

My mistake... I didn't give it much thought..

When I play doubles or triples, I play very few combos.. so that column looked about right to me... but I can see now from my pick 4 totals that you are correct.. It says I played 279 bets.. Well, I play the pick4 very rarely, maybe once a month, so that's proof of it...

You're right. I was wrong.

Since YouBet does count each combo as an individual wager which I think is a better way to track things anyway too bad they also didn't include a HIT% column. This way when you combine your ROI% column with a HIT% column you can really see a much clearer picture what's going on. Like especially in exotic bet combos you can see if you got lucky with maybe one huge payoff or you are consistently grinding out profits in that catagory as well.

[sjk]

I also bet very few combinations especially since they got the wager queue feature going. I thought the number of bets was about 10% higher than I expected.

Retract my answer that they were counting tickets.

[Cadillakin]

Anyway, win ROI being the current Holy Grail of handicapping, and in my opinion with good reason, it appears you have virtually flabbergasted the forum. Me included. Keep up the good work! Mark
I've got better numbers in the last six months... I attribute that to gaining a better understanding of the synthetics.. We've had them less than a couple of years/seasons.. Notice my synthetic play is up to 40%, whereas over the full year, it was only at 22%. So, now, as I gain experience, I have a better sense of when to pull the trigger... I think that's the case...

These numbers over the last six months are pretty consistent with the numbers I used to achieve on dirt...

A few months ago, I felt really discouraged and wrote a long post on the Del Mar Forum about the Pro Ride surface and how I couldn't figure out jockey strategy, etc.. speed was stopping badly, etc... I am used to playing at a much higher level.. So, with a big announcement, I tried Gulfstream... for a week.. but I had nothing there.. no insight at all..

So, I came back, calmed down, and things came back for me... I finished Santa Anita very strong.. We will see if I can handle Del Mar.. I got killed on Polytrack in 2007.. the only substantial losses I can ever remember.. I did pretty good last year on Polytrack, not great... If things don't work well, I'll stay with grass bets...

But I am improving...

http://i40.tinypic.com/2928xhy.jpg

[ranchwest]

Sometimes I think I just need my head screwed on right. Today I hit 21 of 24 wagers.

win 2/2
place 8/9
show 11/12
super 0/1 (didn't have the winner on top in the Belmont)

[Cadillakin]

Sometimes I think I just need my head screwed on right. Today I hit 21 of 24 wagers.

win 2/2
place 8/9
show 11/12
super 0/1 (didn't have the winner on top in the Belmont)
Winning at this game requires self knowledge and self-mastery.. It is truly a game against one's own self..

If you can recognize the pull, the pressures, and the psychology that draw you into losing, you can change the trends.. If you can't gain mastery over those, IMO, you can't win consistently..

Tell me why you bet place and show?

[ranchwest]

Winning at this game requires self knowledge and self-mastery.. It is truly a game against one's own self..

If you can recognize the pull, the pressures, and the psychology that draw you into losing, you can change the trends.. If you can't gain mastery over those, IMO, you can't win consistently..

Tell me why you bet place and show?

I pick a horse, then I evaluate my expectation for where it will finish. I changed my handicapping a bit recently and so far I'm doing pretty good on WPS with a good percentage. Betting the Place and Show also helps to keep me off of Win losers. Admittedly I should be putting in more Win wagers. Interestingly, I'm doing better on Show wagers than Place. Seems to me there are more overlays in the Show pool than the Place pool.

[Cadillakin]

I pick a horse, then I evaluate my expectation for where it will finish. I changed my handicapping a bit recently and so far I'm doing pretty good on WPS with a good percentage. Betting the Place and Show also helps to keep me off of Win losers. Admittedly I should be putting in more Win wagers. Interestingly, I'm doing better on Show wagers than Place. Seems to me there are more overlays in the Show pool than the Place pool.
Far be it from me to tell you what you can and can't do.. I simply don't know what is and isn't possible.. But I think I can say with 100% confidence that if you're skilled enough to make money in the show pool, you're skilled enough to make even MORE money in the win pool..

[ranchwest]

Far be it from me to tell you what you can and can't do.. I simply don't know what is and isn't possible.. But I think I can say with 100% confidence that if you're skilled enough to make money in the show pool, you're skilled enough to make even MORE money in the win pool..

Just depends on the situation.

For instance, a couple of days ago, CT had about 2 inches of water over the whole track. It was a very tiring track. So, I looked for the best closer with form in the next race. Well, I didn't think my selection had a legit shot to win, so I bet it to show. The horse was 13/1. Unfortunately it came in with two heavy favorites, but it did show and paid $3.60, which was not far from being the biggest payoff on the board. I felt it was the best bet available in the race. Of course, I was hoping that something would happen with the favs and my horse might have paid $10+.

I've been having the most success with supers. Even infrequent super scores can be huge for the bottom line. Right now, I'm trying to hone my skills in the WPS pools.

[beertapper]

that's awesome.. congrats..

and abit OT, but i'm really impressed by that ROI tool on youbet... man i wish i had access to something similar

[cj]

http://www.iwdsc.com/Merchant2/graphics/00000001/20-4006559.jpg

[Cadillakin]

So, does that picture of Donald Duck in this thread have some meaning to you? Whatever your point, it's lost on me...

[bigbrown]

Cadillakin,

Thanks for posting this. I am wondering how scalable are these ROI numbers.

What is the size of your bankroll?

bb

[Cadillakin]

Cadillakin,

Thanks for posting this. I am wondering how scalable are these ROI numbers.

What is the size of your bankroll?

bb

Hi bigbrown.

Any ROI, consistent over time, is scalable to any bankroll size until it affects the players nerve and/or handicapping method. If a player can't pull the trigger on a 12 -1 shot in the same manner as a 3-1 shot, then the ROI is no longer scalable... Also, if he/she cannot handicap with the same mental acuity as the bet size increases, his/her consistency will lessen, and the ROI will fall. Thus, the level of effective play will differ with each players unique circumstances.

I'm not inclined to discuss publicly the specifics of my gambling or bankroll other than to tell you; I drive a 1990 Cadillac Eldorado and own a modest 1200 sq foot home. In many of these last 30 years, I have supported my three daughters and two wives on my gambling income alone.

[the little guy]

I'm not inclined to discuss publicly the specifics of my gambling or bankroll.




I'm glad to know you draw the line somewhere.

[Cadillakin]

I'm glad to know you draw the line somewhere.
Listen pal.. You're the only one so far I've had a problem with here.. I'd like to keep my adversaries at a low number...

I stated plainly at the head of this thread, one of the reasons I posted my positive ROI is because until the day that Youbet started providing this service, a man's word was his only proof of ROI in forums of this sort.. I also stated there was some skepticism and derision directed towards me in the Del Mar Forum when I stated I was a consistent winner.

So, if you want to follow me around and make snide remarks, have at it.. Those who know me will tell you I rather like a good pissing match...

[cj]

So, does that picture of Donald Duck in this thread have some meaning to you? Whatever your point, it's lost on me...

Hook, line and sinker.

[Cadillakin]

Hook, line and sinker.
Are you suggesting that the people here are gullible to believe my ROI, or that I somehow altered it? If so, say so.. and we will go from there...

[the little guy]

Hook, line and sinker.


Listen pal...I'm the only one he's had a problem with ( so far ).......stop trying to usurp my position.

Those who know me will tell you I rather like a good pissing match.

[cj]

Are you suggesting that the people here are gullible to believe my ROI, or that I somehow altered it? If so, say so.. and we will go from there...

I'm skeptical, especially as to the whole purpose for this thread.

[Cadillakin]

I'm skeptical, especially as to the whole purpose for this thread.
I'm glad you kept your response civil..

I stated my purpose at the head of the thread and reiterated it a few posts up. First, to validate the fact that I am a consistent winner... and to restore some credibility that was challenged in the Del Mar forum..

And secondly, as a vehicle to help others learn how to focus on their own gambling habits.. and to improve, if that is their inclination... To let them know, I'm willing to help them.. and that this particular teacher does win consistently. He is not a pretender...

Anything else I can help you with?

[garyoz]

[QUOTE=and to restore some credibility that was challenged in the Del Mar forum..[/QUOTE]

That explains everything. Redboarded ROI, why do I even waste my time?

[Quagmire]

I'm glad you kept your response civil..

I stated my purpose at the head of the thread and reiterated it a few posts up. First, to validate the fact that I am a consistent winner... and to restore some credibility that was challenged in the Del Mar forum..

And secondly, as a vehicle to help others learn how to focus on their own gambling habits.. and to improve, if that is their inclination... To let them know, I'm willing to help them.. and that this particular teacher does win consistently. He is not a pretender...

Anything else I can help you with?

I once read a self help book that said if you keep repeating something it could come true.

[Cadillakin]

That explains everything. Redboarded ROI, why do I even waste my time?
Would you mind explaining what a redboarded ROI is? Does that mean a fake ROI?

[cj]

Would you mind explaining what a redboarded ROI is? Does that mean a fake ROI?

Maybe your stats are real, maybe they aren't. Any person with an iota of graphics knowledge could post any altered picture they want to on the internet. Is yours altered? I have no idea, and don't really care.

I'm just not a fan of Pied Piper threads.

[Cadillakin]

Maybe your stats are real, maybe they aren't. Any person with an iota of graphics knowledge could post any altered picture they want to on the internet. Is yours altered? I have no idea, and don't really care.

I'm just not a fan of Pied Piper threads.
I'm not particularly good with graphics.... but if you want to press that issue a bit more, I'm perfectly willing to prove my ROI to a neutral third party, provided you're willing to put up some substantial money to make the challenge more official and interesting..

Also, let's be fair.. I seem to have noticed that you have a website that touts your picks.. Am I mistaken? So, you're interested in proving to others that you can help them too? But you take fees for your services?

[Cadillakin]

I once read a self help book that said if you keep repeating something it could come true.I once read a book that said if you accomplish more than others that you will be subject to jealousy...

What else you got to invalidate my claim to being a consistent winner?

[cj]

I'm not particularly good with graphics.... but if you want to press that issue a bit more, I'm perfectly willing to prove my ROI to a neutral third party, provided you're willing to put up some substantial money to make the challenge more official and interesting..

Also, let's be fair.. I seem to have noticed that you have a website that touts your picks.. Am I mistaken? So, you're interested in proving to others that you can help them too? But you take fees for your services?

I've already said I don't care if they are real or not. I've done plenty here to help others in addition to providing a service for those that want it.

[Cadillakin]

I've already said I don't care if they are real or not. I've done plenty here to help others in addition to providing a service for those that want it.
I made no claim against you, friend.. But you saw fit to make one against me. Of course, I will defend myself...

Let's drop it..

[cj]

I made no claim against you, friend.. But you saw fit to make one against me. Of course, I will defend myself...

Let's drop it..

I made no claim whatsoever.

[andymays]

In my opinion the ROI is rare but not impossible. The stuff Cadillakin claims about the Del Mar Forum is true. All the other stuff he’s written is credible. Nobody here has any proof that the ROI graphic is bogus. Is it possible that the Graphic is doctored? Of course it is.

The only way to find out is this..

Since this is a new feature to You Bet I’m sure customer service would like to promote their new service. If Cadillakin calls customer service and tells them about the Forum discussion and asks if You Bet can email the graphic for the said period to two or three neutral parties the issue would be solved.

As far as the thread goes it has gotten over 3000 views so I liked following it but that's just me.

[Cadillakin]

I made no claim whatsoever.
Now, you're being dishonest...

You posted a big stupid picture of Donald Duck fishing on the previous page, implying that either I'm lying or others are gullible to believe my ROI..

I asked you to drop it... so this forum/thread doesn't denigrate into personal attacks... OK?

[cj]

I never said it wasn't true, just pointing out is isn't the stone proof the guy makes it out to be. What exactly do his records point out that is so enlightening to the masses? Some people are better at different tracks, or different distances, or different classes? That has been discussed here ad nauseum, no big revelation there.

I was implying they are gullible to get sucked into your "look at me" thread like it is some kind of learning tool.

[Cadillakin]

In my opinion the ROI is rare but not impossible. The stuff Cadillakin claims about the Del Mar Forum is true. All the other stuff he’s written is credible. Nobody here has any proof that the ROI graphic is bogus. Is it possible that the Graphic is doctored? Of course it is.

The only way to find out is this..

Since this is a new feature to You Bet I’m sure customer service would like to promote their new service. If Cadillakin calls customer service and tells them about the Forum discussion and asks if You Bet can email the graphic for the said period to two or three neutral parties the issue would be solved.

As far as the thread goes it has gotten over 3000 views so I liked following it but that's just me.
You know andy... I appreciate your support.. but it's pretty amazing altering or creating graphics that fine - matching the original quality - would be brought up... I think, but I'm not sure, that doing such a thing takes great skill and time...

I don't have such skills...

I live in Northern California.. If anybody wants to challenge me more definitively, I will gladly let a neutral person come to my house, and I'll open up the Youbet ROI page and let them have a look...

But I won't do it for free.. If you want to make a bet against me, I'll take that bet.. Any bet size you wish..

[ddog]

Look guys..... take the ROI or leave the ROI --- it really doesn't matter in the end if it's true or not.

If the guy comes on here and puts out ideas on capping and you read them and think about them and what others post about them , maybe it opens a path for YOU, maybe not.

Get past the ROI stuff.

Post your idea/thoughts and let the endless quibble about ROI go.

The idea/discussion will either help or not and is easily proved by YOUR results.

my 2cents.

[andymays]

You know andy... I appreciate your support.. but it's pretty amazing altering or creating graphics that fine - matching the original quality - would be brought up... I think, but I'm not sure, that doing such a thing takes great skill and time...

I don't have such skills...

I live in Northern California.. If anybody wants to challenge me more definitively, I will gladly let a neutral person come to my house, and I'll open up the Youbet ROI page and let them have a look...

But I won't do it for free.. If you want to make a bet against me, I'll take that bet.. Any bet size you wish..


The reason I mentioned altering graphics is that something similar to this subject came up a couple months ago something about "winning professional Horseplayers on the Forum" I think. More that a few posted that graphics could be altered.

Do I personally think the graphics were altered? No! So I would probably be betting on you and not against you. But my opinion is that many on the Forum don't believe the numbers in the graphic are possible over that period of time.

The reason I jumped in was that I could see the thread spinning out of control.

Maybe I've helped and maybe not.

[bcgreg]

Look guys..... take the ROI or leave the ROI --- it really doesn't matter in the end if it's true or not.

If the guy comes on here and puts out ideas on capping and you read them and think about them and what others post about them , maybe it opens a path for YOU, maybe not.

Get past the ROI stuff.

Post your idea/thoughts and let the endless quibble about ROI go.

The idea/discussion will either help or not and is easily proved by YOUR results.

my 2cents.

ddog,

Absolutely agree!

bcgreg

[ryesteve]

but it's pretty amazing altering or creating graphics that fine - matching the original quality - would be brought up... I think, but I'm not sure, that doing such a thing takes great skill and time...
Not really...

http://i199.photobucket.com/albums/aa165/simonsez40/roi.jpg

[Quagmire]

I once read a book that said if you accomplish more than others that you will be subject to jealousy...

What else you got to invalidate my claim to being a consistent winner?

I'm not sure what I should be more jealous of... the '90 Caddy or the 1400 sq ft house.

[oddsmaven]

I made no claim whatsoever.
Cadillakin is right...that's disingenious on your part.
He opened an interesting thread - and more than just post his record, he's offered some insights and has taken the time to answer a lot of questions...I know that you have often been helpful too but don't think you showed the best qualities with your efforts here...maybe too critical, but that's my opinion.

[riskman]

I'm not sure what I should be more jealous of... the '90 Caddy or the 1400 sq ft house.

Thats what happens when you are in a quagmire. Think handicapping. You can pass, single or dutch.

[riskman]

Not really...

http://i199.photobucket.com/albums/aa165/simonsez40/roi.jpg

Gee, can you send me a plate for $20. bills. I am offering free overnight shipping this week.

[stringmail]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quagmire
I'm not sure what I should be more jealous of... the '90 Caddy or the 1400 sq ft house.


I typically lurk on threads that interest me but I felt compelled to comment. With that level of immaturity, Quagmire, I think your best value add is to lurk along side me or add something constructive for the audience.

Healthy skepticism is fine, in my opinion, but I don't believe you should focus on detracting from the main theme of the thread.

The ability or awareness to assess ones strengths and weaknesses is essential to becoming a profitable horseplayer and YouBet's new tool is useful means to do so.

Whether one makes $100K or -$10K, the horseplayer is better served understanding his strengths and/or limitations.

[Cadillakin]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quagmire
I'm not sure what I should be more jealous of... the '90 Caddy or the 1400 sq ft house.


I typically lurk on threads that interest me but I felt compelled to comment. With that level of immaturity, Quagmire, I think your best value add is to lurk along side me or add something constructive for the audience.

Healthy skepticism is fine, in my opinion, but I don't believe you should focus on detracting from the main theme of the thread.

The ability or awareness to assess ones strengths and weaknesses is essential to becoming a profitable horseplayer and YouBet's new tool is useful means to do so.

Whether one makes $100K or -$10K, the horseplayer is better served understanding his strengths and/or limitations.
Stringmail, thanks for your post and putting the thread back on track.... As I said, my purpose was twofold.. First to prove my standing as a gambler.. and second to explore with others our strengths and weakness.. I didn't really know that my ROI would create such a stir...

I didn't mean for the thread to take such a turn.. I honestly thought some other players would contribute their ROI's, and we would have good discussion.

[Quagmire]

You are correct Stringmail, Youbet's new tool can be useful in pointing out ones wagering strengths and weaknesses. I apologize for raining on the guru's parade.

[Cadillakin]

You are correct Stringmail, Youbet's new tool can be useful in pointing out ones wagering strengths and weaknesses. I apologize for raining on the guru's parade.
Feel free to ignore my postings, butterfly.

[the little guy]

Cadillakin is right...that's disingenious on your part.
He opened an interesting thread - and more than just post his record, he's offered some insights and has taken the time to answer a lot of questions...I know that you have often been helpful too but don't think you showed the best qualities with your efforts here...maybe too critical, but that's my opinion.


Interesting discussions about racing and handicapping are terrific, but when you fill them with endless posts about your own brilliance, they become boorish and ultimately appear supremely self-serving. It is very easy to do the former without the latter.

[Cadillakin]

Interesting discussions about racing and handicapping are terrific, but when you fill them with endless posts about your own brilliance, they become boorish and ultimately appear supremely self-serving. It is very easy to do the former without the latter.
You too little guy, ignore my postings.. Is there some reason why you are compelled to read my boorish postings? I don't read yours unless you specifically respond to something I said...

I can participate here without crossing your path.. Why don't you do the same with me?

[markgoldie]

Interesting discussions about racing and handicapping are terrific, but when you fill them with endless posts about your own brilliance, they become boorish and ultimately appear supremely self-serving. It is very easy to do the former without the latter.


AGREED! Let's try to move on here. Aside from realizing that tracking your own performance as a handicapper is very important, the thread had disintegrated into a form of hero worship. Now that the ease of doctoring figures has been exposed, Cadillakin's cult may remain, though now clearly faith-based, and we can hopefully get back to discussing handicapping and wagering.

[Cadillakin]

AGREED! Let's try to move on here. Aside from realizing that tracking your own performance as a handicapper is very important, the thread had disintegrated into a form of hero worship. Now that the ease of doctoring figures has been exposed, Cadillakin's cult may remain, though now clearly faith-based, and we can hopefully get back to discussing handicapping and wagering.
Well, mark, I was respectful to you when you were posting that you were making a lot of show bets, and even when rrbauer went after you for the immaturity in your postings.., I was thoughtful in my posting to you.. But now that you have not shown me that same courtesy, I'll tell you what I really think...

Only a knucklehead, no-nothing rookie bets to show...

Equine Performance Analyst you say in your signature? LOLLLLLLLLLL

[the little guy]

You too little guy, ignore my postings.. Is there some reason why you are compelled to read my boorish postings? I don't read yours unless you specifically respond to something I said...

I can participate here without crossing your path.. Why don't you do the same with me?

I will participate or ignore as I see fit....not as you tell me to. If you choose to post you cannot dictate who responds or how they respond.

[Sid]

Only a knucklehead, no-nothing rookie bets to show...
Hi Cadillakin. Very long time no see.

As you know, I agree entirely with the above quote. Though it's also true that I have more of a tendency to accept whatever it is that someone might wish to do at the windows . . . and I also tend to believe that there are outlying extremely rare examples of bettors landing in the black via the most circuitous route possible.

Every time someone makes a parimutuel bet he or she is attempting to make a buck at the expense of other bettors. The only time I ever see that happening in the show pool is when someone gets audaciously misled into thinking that money can be made there . . . in which case I drop a few bucks backing your opinion stated above. I know I am well ahead lifetime on that one, though I cannot produce the paperwork as illustration.

Maybe something we disagree on is HOW to bet against a bridgejumper. I say -- and for a few years now have practiced the preaching -- that one is best to back just one horse rather than, as is common, betting all the non-bridge-jumped horses. I fervently believe that, would be happy to discuss it somewhere, but doubt that anyone gives a rat's ass.

Anyone, good to remake your acquaintance, and I see you have a rather long thread here for me to review at my leisure. I'm sure it's lively.

[Cadillakin]

Hi Cadillakin. Very long time no see.

As you know, I agree entirely with the above quote. Though it's also true that I have more of a tendency to accept whatever it is that someone might wish to do at the windows . . . and I also tend to believe that there are outlying extremely rare examples of bettors landing in the black via the most circuitous route possible.

Every time someone makes a parimutuel bet he or she is attempting to make a buck at the expense of other bettors. The only time I ever see that happening in the show pool is when someone gets audaciously misled into thinking that money can be made there . . . in which case I drop a few bucks backing your opinion stated above. I know I am well ahead lifetime on that one, though I cannot produce the paperwork as illustration.

Maybe something we disagree on is HOW to bet against a bridgejumper. I say -- and for a few years now have practiced the preaching -- that one is best to back just one horse rather than, as is common, betting all the non-bridge-jumped horses. I fervently believe that, would be happy to discuss it somewhere, but doubt that anyone gives a rat's ass.

Anyone, good to remake your acquaintance, and I see you have a rather long thread here for me to review at my leisure. I'm sure it's lively.
Bravo! Sydneyman is back...

I've often wondered about you from the old days.. In fact, I even asked about you here in the forum... I did in fact give the man the respect and latitude to bet and learn however he sees fit.. if you find that thread where he mentions his betting style .. In any event...

Very nice to see you again.. Hoping you are well!

[markgoldie]

Well, mark, I was respectful to you when you were posting that you were making a lot of show bets, and even when rrbauer went after you for the immaturity in your postings.., I was thoughtful in my posting to you.. But now that you have not shown me that same courtesy, I'll tell you what I really think...

Only a knucklehead, no-nothing rookie bets to show...

Equine Performance Analyst you say in your signature? LOLLLLLLLLLL

Have no idea who you are mixing me up with, but it doesn't matter. You are overly emotional at the moment. Cool off.

[cmoore]

No kidding? What are the average odds, if you don't mind, of the winners that contribute to this unheard of percentage?

I'm glad to know you draw the line somewhere.

Interesting discussions about racing and handicapping are terrific, but when you fill them with endless posts about your own brilliance, they become boorish and ultimately appear supremely self-serving. It is very easy to do the former without the latter.

It looks like you've added a lot to this thread..

TLG doesn't like when someone posts about their own brillance..TLG is the one with an ego the size of New York and is calling someone else self serving..Hysterical!!!! :lol:

[InFront]

Cadillakin,

I'm not sure why so many are jumping on your case or thinking that your ROI stats are "faked". While your roi on WIN bets is fantastic I would say not impossible. You played only 859 win wagers for the entire year. With about 52,000 races running a year in U.S. and "if" you played all tracks that is like 1 out of 50 races do you make a win wager on. So that would be actually a very strict spot player and showing a +19% roi may be possible over such a small sample of actual plays. But to also do it with a 35% hit rate is more fantastic.

The best handicapper/player I ever knew was able to maintain only a 15% win rate with only a +12% roi year after year. Mainly a longshot player based on those stats. But huge difference he was able to produce about 1,200 win plays EVERY MONTH. And I know this for a fact. So while your stats are great I believe they can be acquired.

I think you must remember that 99.5% of all horseplayers lose year after year. Not 95% as the old thought process was but 99.5%. Yes even those on public forums. So maybe this is why so much "ball busting" has been taking place lately. Or maybe not?

[the little guy]

It looks like you've added a lot to this thread..

TLG doesn't like when someone posts about their own brillance..TLG is the one with an ego the size of New York and is calling someone else self serving..Hysterical!!!! :lol:


I figured my personal troll was due to show. You rarely disappoint.....while somehow always disappointing.

[cmoore]

I figured my personal troll was due to show. You rarely disappoint.....while somehow always disappointing.

I actually gave you a "good job" on one of your picks a week or so ago..I think it was the 12 horse..An Exchange Rate runner if not mistaken..Don't get me wrong..I already had that horse in the DD..But at least I gave you props for the pick..

[the little guy]

I actually gave you a "good job" on one of your picks a week or so ago..I think it was the 12 horse..An Exchange Rate runner if not mistaken..Don't get me wrong..I already had that horse in the DD..But at least I gave you props for the pick..


That was just a ruse to try to throw me off course. ;)

It's all in good fun.

[Sid]

I've often wondered about you from the old days.. In fact, I even asked about you here in the forum... I did in fact give the man the respect and latitude to bet and learn however he sees fit.. if you find that thread where he mentions his betting style .
I just read this entire thread start to finish in about 1/10th the time it should be read. One basic item I didn't understand -- perhaps because of my haste -- is the push-me, pull-you regarding YouBet's ROI reporting. "ROI" means what it says -- return on investment -- not "return on how many bets one makes." So at a glance, I am assuming YouBet hasn't suddenly tried to redefine the term, and therefore the "Is an exacta box counted as one bet or six bets?" question is irrelevant. As with anything else, though, I could be wrong. If the bottom line of the entire report is $X wagered on Y number of bets for an ROI of Z% . . . then what kind of math produces a different result depending on what "Y" is?

And just like that I'm talking about useless trivia. That is just like the old days, eh?

In any event... Very nice to see you again.. Hoping you are well!
As well as one can be a dozen years later, when one was an old fart to begin with. I pay more attention to writing and to music than to horses these days, which by any definition makes me an amateur. As someone said in this thread, and which is certainly the truth by my own experience, the time it takes to be a serious horseplayer is by far the most difficult part of being a serious horseplayer. It's just like the braindead asking "What do you watch at 7 p.m. on Wednesdays?" -- except that it doesn't matter which day or what hour on the clock, 90 percent of the time slots are filled by past performances. Except, of course, when one isn't watching and/or wagering.

I lost a lot of interest once I realized what simulcasting was doing to the sport and to the game. When rebating came along, and everybody got excited about using that device to screw the average bettor, it didn't help my attitude much either.

Such things count in the "learning about ourselves" realm, no?

All that said, I still love the game, though I have not much in the way of either time or cash to devote to it. I do believe that is why I essentially lose my ass at it these days, though some in a public forum would no doubt debate that. But as you know, I too like a good pissing match. I think anyone able to sit up and take nourishment can, if he or she also has as much discipline as one of your better-behaved Springer spaniels, survive in this game. Making a buck is more difficult. For me, I think the best way to go at it is largely the old way -- and if I understand my glance at this thread correctly, you are still paying by far the most attention to tracks that you know something about. Which is, of course, a major part of the old way. For my money, making any cheap track one's entire racing universe -- and being there every day, rather than punching keys on a computer -- was the best way. For fun and profit.

Forgive the bandwidth, y'all.

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't get me wrong..I already had that horse in the DD..Of course you did! wink wink, know what I mean?

[DrugS]

TLG doesn't like when someone posts about their own brillance..TLG is the one with an ego the size of New York and is calling someone else self serving..Hysterical!!!! :lol:

I don't agree at all.

I often find myself in awe of his humility.

[PaceAdvantage]

Those who know me will tell you I rather like a good pissing match...Why am I not surprised?

[Cadillakin]

Forgive the bandwidth, y'all.In the interest of saving bandwidth, I snipped your post... :D

Sid is the finest writer that I have ever encountered on any forum, or any website.. In fact, his skills are too great to limit to just the internet. I welcome him and hope that he has some time to spare...

[riskman]

Cadillakin,

You played only 859 win wagers for the entire year. With about 52,000 races running a year in U.S. and "if" you played all tracks that is like 1 out of 50 races do you make a win wager on. So that would be actually a very strict spot player and showing a +19% roi may be possible over such a small sample of actual plays. But to also do it with a 35% hit rate is more fantastic.

If you return to Cadillakin first post on this thread, you will note that most of his wagers were made on the So. Cal circuit with a brief stint at Gulfstream. If, he were playing 300 days that year, he would be averaging 3 win plays per card. That's not unusual playing one track a day. He can speak for himself.

[cmoore]

Of course you did! wink wink, know what I mean?

You made me do this...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=694323&postcount=1637

Second leg of that double won and paid 44 dollars for the win and $152 for the Daily Double..;) right back atcha...

[Cadillakin]

If you return to Cadillakin first post on this thread, you will note that most of his wagers were made on the So. Cal circuit with a brief stint at Gulfstream. If, he were playing 300 days that year, he would be averaging 3 win plays per card. That's not unusual playing one track a day. He can speak for himself.
That's right, riskman.. It's all there in the data.. I play only one circuit, one track.. That's where my advantage lies..

I was surprised by some of it.. how poor my wagering is on Mdn32k, and 6f, but most of it I already knew - including the fact that I usually make a little less than 3 wagers per day...

[plainolebill]

I appreciate your posting. I looked at my stats on Youbet and I won't be displaying them because I hate getting laughed at!

I don't keep records because I'm lazy and I have other interests besides racing, so the youbet report is going to be useful to me. I was surprised how badly I do with 5 1/2 and 6F sprints, also MSW and Stakes races. Leaving them out I'd have a slightly positive ROI. My main bets are win and exacta but I make a fair number of throwaway bets: tris, p3s and supers that I'm not willing to put enough funds into to make them hittable so that money is burned.

I'm going to download the cvs files for those distances, look up the PPs and see, if possible, what I'm doing wrong. I have a hard time passing races when I'm sitting in front of the computer because I bet only one circuit and once I handicap a race I feel the need to bet it. (I should probably go out to my shop and do something productive when I need to pass a race) I read something about that once, having put out the energy to cap' a race it's hard to pass it.

[Cadillakin]

I'm going to download the cvs files for those distances, look up the PPs and see, if possible, what I'm doing wrong. I have a hard time passing races when I'm sitting in front of the computer because I bet only one circuit and once I handicap a race I feel the need to bet it. (I should probably go out to my shop and do something productive when I need to pass a race) I read something about that once, having put out the energy to cap' a race it's hard to pass it.
Hi Bill.

The last part of your posting brings up what I think is a relevant point to winning consistently..

When I handicap, at first I scan... race to race.. What I'm looking for is familiarity or the knowledge that I can possibly research and learn what is at first glance, unknown to me.. Can I study this race and get a good handle on most of the relevant data? And which of these races are in my handicapping and gambling wheelhouse?

Let's say I see a grass race.. a surface I like.. I scan and go over what I know and what I don't know.. Ugh.. two shippers from the east.. Double Ugh, three pace setters, none rateable, with no idea who is going to do what... Triple Ugh, a class horse coming back off a layoff with a good workout pattern... AND the only horse that looks ok in those conditions is breaking from the 9 hole with a speedster in the 10 who will cross over and shut him off at the start.

That. my friend, is NOT a playable race.. I do not pretend that I can somehow garner the knowable from unknowing data.. How many questions can't I answer? If the answer is too many.. I leave it alone.. No bet.. I can play a triple perhaps with a race like that.. if I have a good solid single in one leg and a price horse that I like in another leg.. but as for a win bet... NO WAY... Double, probably not..

That's called finding the playable race.. and that's the beginning of the seasoned handicapper/gamblers process... I think that most of the players do not know their selves well enough to find them... Or if they do, they cannot restrict their gambling to those races... or, they simply don't care about what they know or what they don't know... They just want to play.

As a rule, you can only win when you know more than the others who you are playing against... Simple? Yes. But an obvious truism that most ignore or are unaware of.

[DrugS]

Not really...

http://i199.photobucket.com/albums/aa165/simonsez40/roi.jpg

Wow dude ... you're on some roll.

[Grits]

Bravo! Sydneyman is back...

I've often wondered about you from the old days.. In fact, I even asked about you here in the forum... I did in fact give the man the respect and latitude to bet and learn however he sees fit.. if you find that thread where he mentions his betting style .. In any event...

Very nice to see you again.. Hoping you are well!

Cadillakin, you owe the resident southern lady a gold star. It took me a few hours today, but I knew I could achieve more, maybe even get first chair--by producing one of your long lost fellow horseplayers.

Think about it. Hell, not even the DelMar forum could roll out two players, who combined, can account for 80 years o' churn! And no telling how much in coin.

LOLOLLLLLLLLLL

And folks think guys playing checkers in the back of the barbershop could get dicey. And interesting.

Now, all I need is somebody to take on the game's winner. If I could just produce Archer City Slew. That'll be harder though. He's probably somewhere on the apron at Hollywood Park in his grey sweatpants and that damn ugly hat, watching his horses breeze, and perusing Keeneland's sales catalogs. Lookin' for the next 500K horse he's gonna buy for Ernie Moody. Sidneyman and Archer, Cadillakin, (your) company kept--its a fine indicator of class. LOLOL ;)

You'll do fine here. But I'm gonna keep asking ya questions. I'm like that.:lol:

[JustRalph]

wow, makes me wish I had read the first 6 pages of the thread

Del Mar east.......... we have become.............. :ThmbDown:

[dav4463]

I wish I could have a front row seat to watch all of you guys handicap and bet a day of racing together! It would make a great reality show. It would be better than all those poker shows on ESPN!

[miesque]

wow, makes me wish I had read the first 6 pages of the thread

Del Mar east.......... we have become.............. :ThmbDown:

Consider yourself lucky, I wish I could say I just jumped in at the sixteenth pole, as far as reading this train wreck of a thread.

[sally]

Hi Bill.

The last part of your posting brings up what I think is a relevant point to winning consistently..

When I handicap, at first I scan... race to race.. What I'm looking for is familiarity or the knowledge that I can possibly research and learn what is at first glance, unknown to me.. Can I study this race and get a good handle on most of the relevant data? And which of these races are in my handicapping and gambling wheelhouse?

Let's say I see a grass race.. a surface I like.. I scan and go over what I know and what I don't know.. Ugh.. two shippers from the east.. Double Ugh, three pace setters, none rateable, with no idea who is going to do what... Triple Ugh, a class horse coming back off a layoff with a good workout pattern... AND the only horse that looks ok in those conditions is breaking from the 9 hole with a speedster in the 10 who will cross over and shut him off at the start.

That. my friend, is NOT a playable race.. I do not pretend that I can somehow garner the knowable from unknowing data.. How many questions can't I answer? If the answer is too many.. I leave it alone.. No bet.. I can play a triple perhaps with a race like that.. if I have a good solid single in one leg and a price horse that I like in another leg.. but as for a win bet... NO WAY... Double, probably not..

That's called finding the playable race.. and that's the beginning of the seasoned handicapper/gamblers process... I think that most of the players do not know their selves well enough to find them... Or if they do, they cannot restrict their gambling to those races... or, they simply don't care about what they know or what they don't know... They just want to play.

As a rule, you can only win when you know more than the others who you are playing against... Simple? Yes. But an obvious truism that most ignore or are unaware of.

this is great advice. not that I'm that great with the basics yet, but this should be my number one rule-- thanks Cad--

and thanks PA for having this site--I can learn a lot about handicapping from a lot of you people--

[InFront]

When I handicap, at first I scan... race to race.. What I'm looking for is familiarity or the knowledge that I can possibly research and learn what is at first glance, unknown to me.. Can I study this race and get a good handle on most of the relevant data? And which of these races are in my handicapping and gambling wheelhouse?


From what I read in your posts thus far it seems you're not much of a computer handicapper using large databases to prove or disprove ideas. You're more of what I call a "judgemental art paper handicapper" that is you basically look at the PPs and each individual race and begin your own handicapping process using factors and logic you found to be important in such a specific race. From there it is all a judgement call on what races to play, which races to pass and which horses to play or pass, etc. Am I correct on saying this?

If so next question, do you believe it is possible to devise a propriertary algorithm that is 100% mechanical that can produce longterm profits on WIN bets. Even if this algorithm must be adjusted a tad between tracks, distances, class, etc. but is still 100% mechanical and can be programmed by computer?

[Cadillakin]

From what I read in your posts thus far it seems you're not much of a computer handicapper using large databases to prove or disprove ideas. You're more of what I call a "judgemental art paper handicapper" that is you basically look at the PPs and each individual race and begin your own handicapping process using factors and logic you found to be important in such a specific race. From there it is all a judgement call on what races to play, which races to pass and which horses to play or pass, etc. Am I correct on saying this?

Yes, more or less. I have an idea of which races are playable going-in.. and which horses I might play.. I'm NOT locked in. I still want to see them.. how they are acting. Also, I want to see the general trend of the odds board in that race. It's usually in my interest to pass a race where the odds are insufficient or if I'm lacking clarity and confidence. Yes, sometimes I pass and my horses win, but rarely does that happen with a good price horse.. 25 years ago, I passed two horses that paid over $50 in the same week because they were washy. I vowed then, never to pass on a horse that had only a poor post parade demeanor/appearance against him.

As an example.. I don't care much for a washy, obstreperous horse, going to the post.. If he is 3-1, I pass.. No sweat.. When he wins.. I say.. Oh well, I can live with that... Next..

But if the horse is 16-1.. I won't pass.. I'll bet and take the chance that he can overcome his pre-race nerves... For me, it's damn hard to live with the fact that I squandered some serious bucks when there was just some misbehavior in the post parade or too much sweat... I learned that lesson already.

Here is a good example to illustrate the difficulties of assessing horses in the post parade... Charlie Whittingham had a top class mare named Tallahto.. EVERY TIME I ever saw her, she was a mess when she went to the track.. Sweating buckets, whirling, swirling, rearing.. anything but looking like an athlete ready to run... At the very end of her career, she came on the track one day as calm as an old pony... I thought.. "Shoot, she looks great.. I already love her.. now I DOUBLE LOVE HER." I bet her strongly.. The great Tallahto didn't run a step...

I reflected on that afterwards.. She knew she wasn't going to run, and she told me so.. but I misunderstood her message...

Generally, if the public is thinking a lot like I am... I lose interest.. If they are differing with my views.. my interest to play increases.. That's it. No compulsion.


If so next question, do you believe it is possible to devise a propriertary algorithm that is 100% mechanical that can produce longterm profits on WIN bets. Even if this algorithm must be adjusted a tad between tracks, distances, class, etc. but is still 100% mechanical and can be programmed by computer?

Maybe.. I don't really have much of an opinion on that.. Unlike chess which has a finite set of variables.. the possibility for variation in horses as they contest one another is infinite... Each athlete is a new study.. No races are identical.. Condition and form will change..

So, other than that, I'll pass..

[louisianawoman]

This is a new feature of YouBet.. Fascinating.. I've always known my money won.. I keep track of that... but I never bothered much to monitor each specific bet category...

This is my last years play. Two reasons for posting this...

First, when I declared myself a winner of longstanding at the Del Mar Forum, I was met with much skepticism and some derision. I have to admit, though I'm a confident man, such derision is still unpleasant.. I'm no longer a kid who wishes to be a gambler.. I am a gambler.. I've been handicapping and betting for over 40 years now..

Secondly, the data serves as a good teacher and we would all do well to pay close attention to the breakdowns... As I said to one of the novice players in another thread who was asking for advice, learn what you are good at and specialize..

Here is what I see...

What I'm good at...
Grass Racing (Over 50% ROI. I knew that already. That's my strength)
Class Racing (Mdn, Alw, and Stakes, over 50% Knew that too)
Distance racing. 6.5 and beyond (Well over 50% - I'm a pedigree nut!)
Simple Betting, (Win, Doubles, Triples. The last is my strength. I knew that.)
Bejarano, Rosario and Mike Smith are my go-to jocks, with postive ROI's of 75%, 82% and 92%. and hundreds of bets with each.. No wonder I like those guys :D ) Brice Blanc is my longshot rider.. used sparingly but making over a 500% ROI with him..

Exactas and Trifectas are fairly neutral for me... (I mentioned in a thread that I waste a lot of money covering and am not a good exacta player. This proves it!) I play grass almost exclusively at Del Mar, as I got totally shelled when Polytrack started in 2007. My confidence is low there so my main track play is very sparing..

I had a slight loss on the Pro-Ride at Oak Tree, then did poorly at the beginning of Santa Anita.. I ventured out for a week to Gulfstream, got shelled, came back home. More discipline, more grass, brought me back... Overall, I'm surprised that I show a good ROI on synthetic.. The old dirt tracks were much easier for me to understand.

What I'm NOT good at...
Maiden Claimers (Minus 23 % Shocking - I thought I was pretty good),
6 furlong sprints.. (That one's an eye opener - I'm minus 23% at 6 furlongs.. At 6.5, Im plus 80%, at 7.0, Im plus 53%.. I'll have to reflect on the whys and the wherefores - that's kind of weird.)
Superfectas, Pick 4's and Pick 6's.. (Shockingly bad at Superfectas and the other complex exotics, at minus 50% or higher... I think I better skip em)
Solis, Valdivia, and Mike Baze can't seem to bring in winners for me. I'm minus 20% or so with all of them.. (Those guys better be way overlaid from now on)

Going forward, I'll adjust my gambling..

Comments and similar data from others is welcome...
http://i39.tinypic.com/zlf6vd.jpg

I really enjoyed the information and insight that you have.
Thanks!

[jayfree41]

Cadillackin. I greatly appreciate your perspective and impressive stats. I have been a big player in the last few years. I bet on Twinspires so don't have the neat stats that you have.

The Pick 6 is really my money making tool. I have a $1.06 ROI on the Pick 6 in the last 12 months thanks to four big scores in the last few months - $120k, $212k, $40k and $20k.

Unfortunately, I have a losing R.O.I. in the Win Place Show pool of $.08, winning 29% of my bets.

Exactas have never been a winning proposition to me.
I also have negative R.O.I. on Pick 3's and Pick 4's.

Discipline - is something that I haven't got a full grasp on, yet. I do have a tendency to burn money after big wins. The story you used about getting the discipline to support your friend was really helpful.

So...you asked for someone to reveal your stats ...there's mine. Great thread.

[DeanT]

My ROI at PEN is like 0.69, however I have convinced myself that I can be better there if I wait to bet until the race is over.

[Bison]

Cadillakin,

Those are great numbers. Betting forward though, do you feel you will hit at those same rates? In other words, will you stop betting your weak categories,
and start hammering your strong ones? Do you feel these stats will make you a stronger player?

Thanks,
Bison

[Cadillakin]

Cadillackin. I greatly appreciate your perspective and impressive stats. I have been a big player in the last few years. I bet on Twinspires so don't have the neat stats that you have.

The Pick 6 is really my money making tool. I have a $1.06 ROI on the Pick 6 in the last 12 months thanks to four big scores in the last few months - $120k, $212k, $40k and $20k.

Unfortunately, I have a losing R.O.I. in the Win Place Show pool of $.08, winning 29% of my bets.

Exactas have never been a winning proposition to me.
I also have negative R.O.I. on Pick 3's and Pick 4's.

Discipline - is something that I haven't got a full grasp on, yet. I do have a tendency to burn money after big wins. The story you used about getting the discipline to support your friend was really helpful.

So...you asked for someone to reveal your stats ...there's mine. Great thread.
Thanks Jayfree.. I'm glad you contributed here and told your story.. After 6,000 posts, finally somebody came forward ...

That's why I started the thread... because I wanted to know what other people did.. how they handled everything.. how they won. Until you posted, I never would have thought that a person nearly 10% down in the win category could have a positive yearly ROI as a regular pick 6 player..

I'm glad that story about helping my friend, helped you.. I told it to make the point that any man, at any moment, can turn the page on his past and begin anew..

[jayfree41]

Thanks for responding cadillakin.

i think the pick 6 has been more beneficial to me than your run-of-the-mill win bet - because the pick 6 requires a lot of detailed study. That detailed study - 4 to 5 hours = sometimes really pays off. I usually make win bets sporadically...without the careful study - Formulator - Brisnet PP's - Bruno's Workouts, etc. A 8% negative R.O.I. is better than your average player - still sucky when you bet as often as I do.

The Pick 3 and Pick 4 can be lucrative bets for me a times - won 30k pick 4 the other day at Tampa (love that track!!!) but I am guilty of a lot of really crappy wagering in these areas - after winning 340k in pick 6's Christmas week - 2008. (Barry Meadows is right - you shouldn't bet pick 3's / pick 4's) unless you've really narrowed it down)

There definitely is a wagering addict within me that can use some restraint - I can get carried away when I win too big. But I am a getting more disciplined. It is fantastic to hear from someone on these boards - who truly has had continued success. I am getting there!

[Tom Barrister]

Those are certainly awesome stats.

The only other person on Earth that I know of who can achieve stats like that is Dave Powers.

35% winners with an ROI of 1.19 over 800+ races is mind-boggling.

Since nobody else seems to doubt the word of the opening poster, I won't either.

It does seem odd, though, that nobody else has come close to the stats mentioned---the best minds and/or biggest bettors in racing can't approach any of them.

[FUGITIVE77]

The most profitable and best horseplayers I know are single circuit players. Find a circuit you like then work your tail off and you should do well.

[proximity]

The only other person on Earth that I know of who can achieve stats like that is Dave Powers.
.

word is that dave's cousin "austin" sports quite the win percentage too. just with fillies and mares though.....:)

[Cadillakin]

Those are certainly awesome stats.

The only other person on Earth that I know of who can achieve stats like that is Dave Powers.

35% winners with an ROI of 1.19 over 800+ races is mind-boggling.

Since nobody else seems to doubt the word of the opening poster, I won't either.

It does seem odd, though, that nobody else has come close to the stats mentioned---the best minds and/or biggest bettors in racing can't approach any of them.
Hi Tom,

First, let me politely correct your language here.. You mean; The best minds or biggest bettors in racing that you are aware of."

That 1.19 ROI at the head of the thread is not that great for me.. I'm still adapting to Polytrack at DelMar and Pro-Ride at Santa Anita. I had a solid meet at Santa Anita recently, so hopefully I've gained sufficient knowledge as a player to consistently win over that surface.... Regardless, I can always play the grass at Santa Anita if my Pro-Ride play regresses .. At the top of page 6 in this thread, the stats there, reflect my last six months. As you can see, they are higher than the yearly posted on page 1. Those stats do not include play over Polytrack...which in these last two years has been problematic.. In 2007, it's initial year, my play over that surface was a disaster.. In 2008, I improved quite a bit and turned a profit... so I'm hopeful I will continue to improve in this coming year. Those numbers posted on page 6 are very similar to the numbers that I hit consistently in my California play when all the main track surfaces were dirt... 2007 and prior.

And if I am one of the best players in the game.. What's so odd about that?

By choice, I've kept a low profile. I've had opportunites to be a public figure.. Some years ago, I did some public seminars.. In one of them, which I think was primarily a breeding seminar.Tom Brohamer was on the panel with me. We met in the restaurant lobby near Santa Anita prior to the seminar starting and we chatted for a few minutes. I knew who he was.. I'm sure he had no clue as to who I was, even though the host of the seminar advertised me as "The Expert to the Experts." I wasn't real comfortable with him promoting me that way... but I had no say in it... In any event...I don't think Tom spoke to the audience that much, if at all, that night. I recall that the audience directed most of the questions my way...

Afterwards, a man came up to me and introduced himself. He handed me his card and told me he handled/owned many of the phone lines (touts). He was friendly and we chatted for a minute or two. Then, he made this offer; You come see me tomorrow.. and I'll make you the highest paid man in the business! He said it with gusto..

But that wasn't for me.. I thanked him and declined. It was a point of pride to me that I was a gambler, not a tout.. I also took pride in the fact that my entire living in those years was made as a gambler. I never took a penny for my opinion, nor did I have any outside sources of income, other than betting on the horses..

I live a quiet, modest life, with my wife and youngest daughter, and that suits me just fine... I joined these forums because I am now quite far removed from my gambling friends... and I miss the camaraderie and the horse talk... I also like to teach... and give the younger/newer players an assist.. The forums here serve both purposes..

[Cadillakin]

Cadillakin,

Those are great numbers. Betting forward though, do you feel you will hit at those same rates? In other words, will you stop betting your weak categories,
and start hammering your strong ones? Do you feel these stats will make you a stronger player?

Thanks,
Bison
Hi Bison..

Going forward, I'm sure I can maintain consistent numbers. I rely on a very basic approach.. That won't change much...

About my weaker categories.. I think mostly the YouBet data offers me some concrete proof that I'm not handling my handicapping chores well enough. I should be able to win in all the categories if I reflect and come to grips with the whys and the wherefores.. Assessing one's self accurately should always be to a players advantage.

As to the gambling choices I make.. I may just nix trifecta and superfecta gambling.. The former is not making me a lot.. and the latter is a losing category. I think I know why. My tendency is to play a very concise game. My ideal pick 3 is single-single-double, single-double-double, and single-single-single. Sometimes I combine all or a couple of those combos within the pick 3 sequence... I rarely play a sequence where I have to go more than two-deep (max 3-deep) to get the needed coverage.

Thus, I think I'm a poor superfecta player for a couple of reasons.. First, I probably don't put enough horses on the ticket.. trying to be too precise. Second, and maybe of more importance.. the second/third/fourth best horses can be negatively impacted competing with their superiors. In sequence play, I don't have to concern myself with a superior horse outranking the others and negatively affecting their race.. because I'm only looking to catch the top horses to cash my tickets.. Whereas, in vertical play, (exactas, tris and supers) it's not always about the second best horse finishing second... or the third best finishing third, etc.. They can easily sacrifice their finishing positions by trying to best their superiors. For myself, I find it confusing trying to justify playing what I think is the 5th best horse in the 3rd hole.. Others, I'm sure can do it well, but it doesn't work much for me.

Also, another reason the pick 3 is attractive to me versus the pick 4 and pick 6 is that in playing the triple, I can select any sequence within the race card, whereas with the pick4 and pick6, they're limited to race sequences I may not favor. IMO, a good gambler should like nearly all of the races he plays, or nearly so.

Yes, the data should help me become a stronger player.. I'll utilize more discipline in the categories that are weak for me by lessening the number of plays and attempting to increase my winning percentage - by sticking to the basics and limiting my plays to decidedly clear overlays. In doing so, I should be able to change the overall loss into the positive.. In the six month ROI recap I posted on page 6, I brought both of my very negative categories, 6f races and mdn-clm, up quite a bit.. I also have a negative with some trainers of national stature too.. Bobby Frankel, I'm at -50%. Richard Mandella, who is the trainer that I respect the most, I'm losing at a 20% rate.. I'll need to make some adjustments on those and others, and with some of the jockeys too...

In this game, there is always a lot to reflect on.. That's perhaps why I chose to learn it and continue to play with a lot of enjoyment and fulfillment.

[Cadillakin]

My ROI at PEN is like 0.69, however I have convinced myself that I can be better there if I wait to bet until the race is over.
You're handling it just right. First, by selecting the horses after the race is run, you're pushing your win percentage very high.. Getting that win % up is very important..

Now, you just need to push that ROI up! That shouldn't be too hard now that you've got your win percentage moving in the right direction.. Good Luck!

[JBmadera]

thank you for posting this. It's been years since I've been able to wager at the track/simul center and I miss the back and forth with my race track buddies so I always enjoy reading about others success, failures, opinions, etc. Your post also seems to have stimulated a few other threads about roi and wager type which is cool since I certainly need to spend more time parsing all my results data.

cheers,

jb