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moneyline702
06-04-2009, 01:49 AM
I'm torn between betting Exactas & Win bets. I have been searching for days on this topic. I have played on paper using both ways. The approximate win rate for each method hovers around 30% for me.

My anxiety is weathering the losing streaks. I've heard arguments from both sides saying how theirs is better but never anyone saying WHY.

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

Imriledup
06-04-2009, 02:41 AM
Play win on winners and play exactas if you have a clue as to who is going to run 2nd. Keep it simple.

Don't 'force' an exacta play if you don't have a 'feel' for it.

acorn54
06-04-2009, 03:30 AM
My anxiety is weathering the losing streaks. I've heard arguments from both sides saying how theirs is better but never anyone saying WHY.

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:[/QUOTE]

if you don't have the temperment to handling losing alot then horserace gambling is not for you.

dav4463
06-04-2009, 03:54 AM
Play them both. It's a great feeling to have both a win and an exacta........and the tri, super...etc!

ranchwest
06-04-2009, 11:47 AM
Exactas tend to be my worst play. Maybe it's just me, but my preference is the win bets. For verticals, I prefer supers.

fmolf
06-04-2009, 02:24 PM
I'm torn between betting Exactas & Win bets. I have been searching for days on this topic. I have played on paper using both ways. The approximate win rate for each method hovers around 30% for me.

My anxiety is weathering the losing streaks. I've heard arguments from both sides saying how theirs is better but never anyone saying WHY.

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
i play mostly in the win pool when i have an think i have an overlay even if the horse is 7/5 when i think he should be even money.....when i have an odds on favorite or an overbet favorite i think is solid i may couple him on top using no more than three overlaid horses i like underneath
... i have barry meadows exacta overlay chart to determine this so all i do is look st the track pays and see if they are overlaid

46zilzal
06-04-2009, 02:28 PM
I'm torn between betting Exactas & Win bets. I have been searching for days on this topic. I have played on paper using both ways. The approximate win rate for each method hovers around 30% for me.

My anxiety is weathering the losing streaks. I've heard arguments from both sides saying how theirs is better but never anyone saying WHY.

You have to have a VERY GOOD understanding of the pace variances in a field before you start playing exotics. Winning profiles are not the same as those underneath and that varies track to track.

fmolf
06-04-2009, 03:56 PM
You have to have a VERY GOOD understanding of the pace variances in a field before you start playing exotics. Winning profiles are not the same as those underneath and that varies track to track.
only if your a pace handicapper ..the second horse can be found out in any number of ways.....consistency records/the horse has many more places than wins...ditto for jockey records...i like to play class horses/dropping off a long layoff in the second spot...or last out winners moving up one class.....a lot of ways to skin the same cat

Otis11
06-04-2009, 10:39 PM
This is just me talking ... no factual basis to back it up.

I don't like playing the exacta or trifecta. Too hard trying to predict who will finish 2d and 3d.

If you really like 2 or 3 horses in a race why not handicap the next leg and play a double like: #, #/# #? Or go three races deep and play the pick 3. The takeout on doubles and pick threes is much better then what you'll get in the exactas and trifectas.

Valupix
06-04-2009, 11:06 PM
Moneyline: you're off to the right start by keeping records and having a feel for you hit rate. Many will call my response splitting hairs (I disagree with them vehemently). I assume you mean about 30% of the races for both type bets and not actually 30% of the bets. If you truly are hitting 30% of your exacta's you are already the best I know.

You have to consider the fact that hitting an exacta only pays on one combination of what is usually most players multiple exacta combinations (outside of the rare dead heat). What that really means is the only sound way to calculate you hit rate for exactas (and other exotic and multiples) is to calculate the number of hits compared to the number of combinations plays. It's the only way you're going to gets a true comparison for different types of bets and the only way you're going to get a comfortable feel for the debate you are currently considering for the best avenue to take from here.

Side note: If you, like me routinely bet more than one horse to win within a single race, that too is best based on each individual wager made instead of per race.

I’m not sure you’re going to get a direct answer to your question that will give you the confidence you seek. But I think comparing them as equally as you can might make the choice clearer for your own comfort zone. Which differs from player-to-player.

moneyline702
06-05-2009, 10:36 PM
Moneyline: you're off to the right start by keeping records and having a feel for you hit rate. Many will call my response splitting hairs (I disagree with them vehemently). I assume you mean about 30% of the races for both type bets and not actually 30% of the bets. If you truly are hitting 30% of your exacta's you are already the best I know.

You have to consider the fact that hitting an exacta only pays on one combination of what is usually most players multiple exacta combinations (outside of the rare dead heat). What that really means is the only sound way to calculate you hit rate for exactas (and other exotic and multiples) is to calculate the number of hits compared to the number of combinations plays. It's the only way you're going to gets a true comparison for different types of bets and the only way you're going to get a comfortable feel for the debate you are currently considering for the best avenue to take from here.

Side note: If you, like me routinely bet more than one horse to win within a single race, that too is best based on each individual wager made instead of per race.

I’m not sure you’re going to get a direct answer to your question that will give you the confidence you seek. But I think comparing them as equally as you can might make the choice clearer for your own comfort zone. Which differs from player-to-player.


My mistake. Yes, I mean COMBINED (both Win & Exactas) total a 30% rate. If I were hitting 30% Exactas I would be sitting on a beach sippin' a tropical mixed drink looking at the forum on a laptop. Seriously though, I just wanna look for more research angles and technique before going full throttle.