My 2009 Belmont Stakes picks

[Bill Cullen]

$1 exacta box: Charitable Man, Chocolate Candy, Flying Private

$1 triple box: Charitable Man, Chocolate Candy, Flying Private. Mr. Hot Stuff

[theveep]

2$ ex: Mine that Bird, Chocolate candy
2$ tri: Mine, Chocolate, Miner's escape
1$ super: mine, chocolate, miner's escape, dunkirk

[Bill Cullen]

i like MTB but tossed him as the fav.

I like Miner's Bird but think Dunkirk looks weak on his workouts.

Best,

Bill C

[Bettowin]

i like MTB but tossed him as the fav.

I like Miner's Bird but think Dunkirk looks weak on his workouts.

Best,

Bill C

Miner's Bird? Talk about a subconcious sign. I am boxing Miner's Escape and Mind That Bird at least once. Thanks!!

[plainolebill]

MTB, Dunkirk, Flying Private - the rest nowhere as the saying goes.

[theveep]

Bill,

Similar to how you don't like Dunkirk's workouts, I really don't like Charitable Man's workouts. They never brought this horse up to and over 5F. Seems like they just want the horse to sprint the heck out of the field. It's a losing proposition I think. I love Chocolate Candy's workouts. Nice progression up to 7F and then back down to a sprint.

On Dunkirk, I will never bet on a grey horse to win. That has done me well over the years.

Lou

[Bill Cullen]

On Dunkirk, I will never bet on a grey horse to win. Lou

That's the kind of rule I like!

Best,

Bill C

[Shelby]

Bill,

Similar to how you don't like Dunkirk's workouts, I really don't like Charitable Man's workouts. They never brought this horse up to and over 5F. Seems like they just want the horse to sprint the heck out of the field. It's a losing proposition I think. I love Chocolate Candy's workouts. Nice progression up to 7F and then back down to a sprint.

On Dunkirk, I will never bet on a grey horse to win. That has done me well over the years.

Lou

Lol. I have the opposite rule. I always bet on the gray.

[fmolf]

playing zitos' and lukas' horses over mtb and mtb over zitos' and lukas' horses provided mtb is above 8/5...if he is not i will take a shot with dunkirk or charitable man in that spot

[beertapper]

mine that bird...he's gonna win.

[Robert Fischer]

Win: Charitable Man , Dunkirk

Longer shots include: Chocolate Candy, Brave Victory
Mine That Bird = second and third

[Stevie Belmont]

Dunkirk has the two best works of anyone in the race...

[Robert Fischer]

Dunkirk has the two best works of anyone in the race...
?

[Stevie Belmont]

?
?

[miesque]

From a workout perspective, I thought it was kinda interesting looking at the difference in the workout patterns of the contenders coming in from the Derby, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, Summer Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff with Hollendorfer taking a more old school approach with Chocolate Candy's preparation:

Chocolate Candy
Jun 1 Bel 4ft 0:50 1/5 30/44
May 25 Bel 7ft 1:27 1/5 1/1
May 18 Bel 6 ft 1:13 2/5 1/1
May 11 Bel 4 ft 0:47 4/5 16/100

Dunkirk
May 31 Bel 4ft 0:49 2/5 57/93
May 23 Bel 5ft 1:00 3/5 7/23
May 18 Bel 4ft 0:47 1/5 1/62

Summer Bird
May 30 Bel 5ft 1:01 4/5 5/9
May 23 Bel 7ft 1:26 2/5 2/5
May 15 LaD 5 ft 1:02 9/30

Mr. Hot Stuff
Jun 1 Kee 5ft 1:00 1/12
May 26 Kee 5ft 1:01 1/12
May 20 Kee 4ft 0:49 4/5 18/23
May 14 Kee 4ft 0:49 4/5 11/13

[keithw84]

I think Brave Victory is an overlay at 15-1 and will problem include him in my exotics.

I think Miner's Escape is an underlay at 15-1. I think he will be way outclassed.

What's the deal with Mr. Hot Stuff? He seems to be getting a lot of attention.

[cj's dad]

Lol. I have the opposite rule. I always bet on the gray.

Most women do.

[andymays]

#2 Dunkirk

with

#6 Charitable Man and #7 Mine That Bird and #9 Miner's Escape

with

#6 Charitable Man and #7 Mine That Bird and #9 Miner's Escape

with

#1 Chocolate Candy and #3 Mr. Hott Stuff and #6 Charitable Man and #7 Mine That Bird and #9 Miners Escape

[46zilzal]

On Dunkirk, I will never bet on a grey horse to win. That has done me well over the years.

Lou

Wow no Lady's Secret, Native Dancer, Spectacular Bid, Itsallgreektome, etc. etc

[W2G]

MTB to win. This is the same horse that sliced through 18 rivals like a hot knife through butter in the Derby. And his Preakness run was almost good enough to win, just lost to a talented filly who was all-out. And she is not able to answer the bell for this one. As a May foal (just like his Dad), the handy and resilient MTB appears to be peaking and coming into his own as race horse early in his third year (just like his Dad). We never did find out just how good Birdstone could have been due to his BC injury, but maybe MTB's career going forward will give us a hint.

The others do not inspire, although Summer Bird looks very well-meant. I don't like CM here and think he'll be overbet, as will Dunkirk to a lesser extent. Flying Private reminds me of the Woody Allen quote: "Eighty percent of success is showing up."

MTB
Flying Private
Summer Bird

[Bettowin]

MTB to win. This is the same horse that sliced through 18 rivals like a hot knife through butter in the Derby. And his Preakness run was almost good enough to win, just lost to a talented filly who was all-out. And she is not able to answer the bell for this one. As a May foal (just like his Dad), the handy and resilient MTB appears to be peaking and coming into his own as race horse early in his third year (just like his Dad). We never did find out just how good Birdstone could have been due to his BC injury, but maybe MTB's career going forward will give us a hint.

The others do not inspire, although Summer Bird looks very well-meant. I don't like CM here and think he'll be overbet, as will Dunkirk to a lesser extent. Flying Private reminds me of the Woody Allen quote: "Eighty percent of success is showing up."

MTB
Flying Private
Summer Bird

Agreed. The question is will he be 2-1 at post? If he is it's $500 to WP on the "Bird" :)

[WinterTriangle]

What's the deal with Mr. Hot Stuff?

Beauty pageant contestant. He's got to be the most stunning-looking horse on the track there this week.

Most think he's a nutcase. I call it intelligence. Tiznow was the same way.

[WinterTriangle]

The others do not inspire, although Summer Bird looks very well-meant.

Tim Ice doesn't have the experience esp at BEL, compared to the other trainers. All the equipment changes on SB show this, to me it looks like he is trying to throw whatever sticks onto this horse.

I guess it all depends on whether you think the sire stats and Desormeaux for the jock boost his chances enough to counter-act all that.

I don't.

[FenceBored]

Luv Guv ... unless one of the outriders is on a cute NJ bred filly.

[wannano6]

My tri ticket I bet this afternoon
:4: :6:
:1: :4: :6: :7:
:1: :2: :4: :6: :7: :10:

I am giving Summer Bird another chance with Rosier out and Desormeaux up.

[Grits]

Tim Ice doesn't have the experience esp at BEL, compared to the other trainers. All the equipment changes on SB show this, to me it looks like he is trying to throw whatever sticks onto this horse.

I guess it all depends on whether you think the sire stats and Desormeaux for the jock boost his chances enough to counter-act all that.

I don't.

Isn't this a bit shortsighted, given that similar was said regarding Chip Woolley and the Kentucky Derby winner? Noting this same line of thought may be carried tomorrow in regard to, both, Woolley and Ice?

Summer Bird, his trainer and his jock pulled a not too shabby feat finishing 6th in the world's most crowded and glaringly contentious horserace--being it was a first time event for all three, if I'm not mistaken.

I don't see, with four races, how adding first time blinkers, and a jockey that knows Belmont Park and this distance (better than the jock who managed the 6th place finish in Louisville) can be seen as, remotely, close to "throwing whatever sticks."

To be honest, I'd say its pretty smart, particularly, if one notes how well the horse has closed in each of his races. Not to mention if he gets a better trip this time out. But of course, I could quite easily be wrong.

Now, wouldn't it be something to see 2 Birdstones hit the exacta and trifecta?

Like Zito says, in the Belmont, strange things can happen that last 1/8th of a mile. And he would surely know.

I might add . . . . whatever the horse is wearing, he might surprise us.

[raybo]

I wouldn't bet this race with YOUR money!!

[surfdog89]

The other Bird............. Summer Bird ......... adding Blinkers for the first time should have him closer to the pace......... lightly raced fresh horse is my pick
:cool:

[joanied]

Beauty pageant contestant. He's got to be the most stunning-looking horse on the track there this week.

Most think he's a nutcase. I call it intelligence. Tiznow was the same way.

He IS gorgeous...they actually picked a good name for him...works both ways....for his good looks and crazy temperment:D...Tiznow could be a handful to deal with, and from what I remember, he always did things his way...but man, oh, man...IMO, he was a very intelligent horse and had the heart of a Gladiator...if Mr. Hot Stuff can pull it all together...he might surprise everyone, including Eion Harty:eek:
I love the Tiznow's anyway!!

I'm watching Summer Bird...I guess they added the back toe grabs because he was not handeling the surface at Belmont...and the blinkers for focus...and he seems to be doing much better on the track...according to his trainer...I cannot rule out that run he made in the Derby, so me thinks he might hit the board, regardless of how much experience his trainer doesn't have at Belmont!!

[Overlay]

Mine That Bird
Charitable Man
Dunkirk

[Bobzilla]

Not sure what I'll be thinking tomorrow while at the track but if I were to wager now I'd do win bets on Chocolate Candy and Dunkirk.
Also:

3 superfectas: 1,2/1,2/ALL/ALL; 1,2/ALL/1,2/ALL; 1,2/ALL/ALL/1,2

P4: 1,2,3,5,9/1,5,8/1,4,7/1,2,6,7 $(180)

P6: 5/2/1/1,5/1,2,3,5,6,9,12/1,2,6,7 $(114)

Love Raw Silk in The Just A Game, R7.

[cj's dad]

Summer Bird

MTB

and

Dunkirk

boxed in the tri and exacta

[rastajenk]

Exacta box :1: :2: :3: and :4:

I also used those four with :7: in some dime stupor part wheels.

[Cratos]

I think this year’s Belmont might be the best of the three TC races because it will help establish the legitimacy of Mine That Bird without all of the hoopla.

This is not to say that Rachel Alexandra didn’t prove to be a viable competitor to Mine That Bird by winning the Preakness, but it is to say that if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont (and I don’t think he will) he will clearly put himself in the driver’s seat for the 3yo of the year title and a strong candidate for horse of the year honors, but I am getting too far a field because he has to win first.

However my choices for this year’s Belmont are:

1. Dunkirk – I felt he would win the Derby (and he didn’t), but I am giving him a shot at redemption.
2. Charitable Man – He has a run over the Belmont strip and his victory with his breeding he is well suited to get both the distance and the victory.
3. Mine That Bird – I am not overlooking the gutsy little gelding, but I think he might be on a downward turn in terms of form and if he is not, watch out

[Stevie Belmont]

ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Belmont Stakes is Dunkirk. Dunkirk looks primed to make a strong bounce back run after his dull Kentucky Derby effort. And a tremendous amount of respect to Mine That Bird who has every right to be pegged for the top spot in the Belmont Stakes. This is a tough call, and ThoroughbredZone has labored over this for awhile. I really like MTB and it would be great for the sport, and to see Calvin Borel win all three Triple Crown races would be something else. Below is a close up of each horse, and how they might do. And further down are a few ways you might want to play these guys.



Chocolate Candy: Chocolate Candy is an honest horse who has done all of his best running on a synthetic surface out in California. He will be running for the first time tomorrow on a fast, dirt surface. (track could still be wet) He has been pointed to the Belmont Stakes since he finished the Kentucky Derby. Super trainer Jerry Hollendorfer must be respected. He has put some nice stamina-building works into this horse, and a solid effort is expected. He was very wide in the Santa Anita Derby and still finished a fast rallying second to Pioneerof the Nile. His Kentucky Derby race was a poor effort, but that race is throw out, like it’s been for so many other horses. He will be making his 11th career start and has a good bottom to him. He is a solid finisher who should rebound off his Kentucky Derby effort. User Under

Dunkirk: The Kentucky Derby was a disaster from start to finish. The race is a complete toss. The 3.7 million dollar purchase has class, and talent. ThoroughbredZone covered his debut race back in January (http://thoroughbredzone.com/2009/01/22/first-time-starter-alert%E2%80%A6won-token-and-dunkirk-set-for-debuts-at-gulfstream-park-on-saturday/). He ran a powerful race against the top rated and ThoroughbredZone’s #1 Kentucky Derby Prospect Quality Road in the Florida Derby back in March. He launched a powerful move to hook and pass Quality Road, who was able to dig in and turn Dunkirk back on a very speed-favoring surface. Dunkirk did gallop out past Quality Road in the Florida Derby, which was a positive sign. There is no doubt that Quality Road was the best 3-year-old colt in the land at the time. Connections skipped the Preakness Stakes for the Belmont Stakes. Dunkirk has had three published workouts since the Kentucky Derby. He has had two fast breezes, followed by a slower breeze. And another positive sign is the fact that Todd Pletcher has indicated he has gained some weight since the Kentucky Derby. He looks sharp and ready to go. A much-improved effort is expected in the Belmont Stakes. Top Selection

Mr. Hot Stuff: He had a disaster of trip in the Kentucky Derby. He has still yet to run on a fast dirt surface. He has been working well over the Keeneland poly surface. He ran a good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but still would have to take it up several notches here to be considered a legitimate threat for top prize. However, he is eligible to improve in his first try on a fast dirt track. He looks to be a late developer. User Under

Summer Bird: Summer Bird is a lightly raced colt. He will add blinkers for the first time in the Belmont Stakes. He was closing well in the Arkansas Derby at a mile and an eighth at Oaklawn in April. The Kentucky Derby was a disaster, as it was for so many others. He would still have to improve a great deal to win. A strong pace and a late kick will help his cause. He should be a square price. 10-cent supers will be on the betting menu for the Belmont Stakes, and this horse fits the bill in the fourth spot at a big price. User Under

Luv Gov: He is one of two D. Wayne Lukas colts ready for action. He should be one of the early pacesetters along with Miner’s Escape. Luv Gov will me making his 12th career start, but he has yet to run a race that would indicate he could win a race of this magnitude. Luv Gov will go as far as he can on, or near the lead. Hanging in there late will be difficult. Sports a good 6 furlong work since the Preakness Stakes. Not Using

Charitable Man: The runaway winner of the Peter Pan Stakes last month is clearly the talk of the Belmont Stakes. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has exuded confidence in him, stating that he would not change places with anyone. He will be making his third start off a lengthy layoff. He is eligible to improve, but ran a strong race in the Peter Pan just a month ago. He will have to come back and run another strong race to win the Belmont Stakes. He was behind a hot pace set by Hello Broadway in the Peter Pan, who eventually faded. Charitable Man looks like he could be on or near the lead in a stalking position. At some point during the stretch, he should have the lead, but will have to fend off Dunkirk and the hard charging Mine That Bird. That final furlong could be his undoing. Talent is there, and the confident connections are a plus. He is an interesting prospect. There are a combination of pros and cons with this horse. User Under


Mine That Bird: The upset Kentucky Derby winner, and hard charging runner-up in the Preakness Stakes is ready to give it another go in the mile and a half Belmont Stakes. And there is nothing to indicate he will not be ready to make another power packed late run. He proved his class in the Preakness running behind the best 3-year-old filly in the land Rachel Alexandra. He is a well-seasoned gelding who raced as a 2-year-old. Calvin Borel is extremely confident in this horse ability and has already stated he is the winner. In addition, ThoroughbredZone is confident in his ability. Mine That Bird is the most likely winner if Dunkirk cannot stay on for the mile and a half. If he once again comes with that same strong kick, he has shown in his two previous races, he is a huge threat to win two thirds of the Triple Crown. He has more pros than cons, of any other horse in the race. Who ever has the lead late will have to fend him off. Being a May foal, this guy might actually be getting better at this time of year. Some have indicated he is not a wise win play as a favorite, which is not the wisest way to handle the best horse in the race. I hope he runs well. User On Top And Under

Flying Private: The other D. Wayne Lukas entry. One of only two horses in the Belmont Stakes to run in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. The other being Mine That Bird. This horse has been improving throughout the spring. He had some issues in the stretch of the Preakness Stakes, yet finished strongly to finish fourth. The Derby was a disaster and a throw out race. He will be making his 13th start of his career in the Belmont Stakes, making him the most experienced horse in the race. He also fired off a career best speed figure in the Preakness Stakes. Another strong rally in the long Belmont Stretch, and he could make an impact. I feel this horse could pose the biggest upset threat of any horse in the race. D. Wayne Lukas has had success in the Belmont Stakes with four wins. Flying Private has all the indications he is ready to run another good race. User, and If he is better than 10/1…A Saver win bet.

Miner’s Escape: Miner’s Escape is coming off a front-running win in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on May 2, 2009. There is little doubt he will be forwardly placed right out of the gate in the Belmont Stakes, to help set up a late run of Brave Victory, who is by the same owner Robert LaPenta and trained by Nick Zito. Nick Zito has been the man in recent years with upset wins in the Belmont Stakes, and both of his horses tomorrow will be over bet. Miner’s Escape will go as far as he can on the front end, and looks to duplicate Da’Tara’s front running Belmont win of a year ago. To say that for him to go gate to wire in an impossibility might be an over statement, but that is exactly what the plans are with him. He has a good foundation and you know Nick has had his eyes on the Belmont for a while. User Under

Brave Victory: The other half of the uncoupled Nick Zito/Robert LaPenta entry. Brave Victory will be making his fourth start off a layoff, and looks to be cycling to a top effort in the Belmont Stakes. He has had two nice breezes since his good third place finish to Charitable Man in the Peter Pan Stakes. Another move forward is more than possible, as Nick Zito has probably mapped out a path to the Belmont Stakes some time ago. A top effort is expected. Whether that top effort is good enough for the win remains to be seen, but an on the board finish is not out of the question for Nick Zito who knows how to get one ready for the Belmont. Both of Nick Zito’s horses will probably be over bet considering his recent success in the Belmont Stakes. User Under

Belmont Stakes Plays


Dunkirk - Top Pick For The Win

Dunkirk-Mine That Bird Exacta Box

Flying Private - Saver Win Bet

10-Cent Supers are on the betting menu, and they offer an opportunity to spread around with some price horses. So going with the 10-super could very well be a way to go…

2,7 / 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 /1,3,4,8,9,10 / 1,3,4,8,9,10 $28

And a Super Saver Play With Belmont Boys On Top

8,9,10/8,9,10/2,6,7/2,6,7 $3.60


All in all a real blockbuster day of racing at Belmont Park. 6 stakes races. The True North, Just A Game, Woody Stephens, Acorn, Manhattan and The Belmont Stakes to cap it off. There is also a 1 million dollar guaranteed Pick 4 and Pick 6.

Fabulous Strike looks primed in the True North…

We will give some updates at Belmont if there is anything of importance. Also try to get some tweets from the paddock if any horse in particular stands out. And an eye will be on Monmouth Park of course.

[MzDucat]

Mine that Bird (always loved Calvin and his brother) and Chocolate Candy

$1 tri MTB, CC/MTB, CC/all 18 tickets
$1 tri MTB, CC/all/MTB, CC 12 tickets
$1 tri all/MTB, CC/MTB, CC 4 tickets

80 exa MRB, CC 20 reverse

no super because the poachers are out

Will post the cost and win or lose the results. Can't bet it for real. Not allowed. Bet Bill Nader will be cranking it in from Hong Kong though. Ramsey too. And of course Skippy from the Racino.

[mostpost]

I will be going with:
$40 exacta 7 - 2
$20 exacta 2 -7

$1 tri part wheel
2-7
over
2-6-7
over
1-2-6-7-8-9

[eastie]

That's the kind of rule I like!

Best,

Bill C


Only bet on a gray horse on a gray day

[WinterTriangle]

Summer Bird

MTB

and

Dunkirk

boxed in the tri and exacta

Mine's gonna look something like that, except with MHS, not Summer Bird. I also like BV, CC and FP for longshots. Yeah yeah, I know everyone likes Summer Bird except me. :)

[NYPlayer]

Charitable Man is the strongest horse in the race. He ran a new top effort in the the Peter Pan. On the Rags, this performance was better than MTB's Derby or Preak efforts. Of course, there is some risk that he bounces, but overall his numbers as a 2yo and the Peter Pan effort loom large in this race, and he could win with a small bounce.

My second choice is Dunkirk. He ran strongly in an allowance race and the FL Derby, and those efforts are much better than what many others have shown. He bounced in the Derby, but will likely recover to perform better.

Chocolate Candy is the most interesting horse in that, while he's not fast, he is arguably the most consistent performer in the race. On the Rags, he peaked as a 3yo at GG in February after impoving dramatically but steadily as a 2yo. His SA and KD Derby efforts were not as good, but they were not bad off races either. He's had plenty of rest, and now seems like an ideal time for him to show his best.

Summer Bird is an interesting horse. He showed tremendous improvement in the AK Derby, and ran strongly in the Derby per Rags. In my opinion, he's hard to read as to whether he bounces or moves forward, but off of his numbers, he's a strong contender and a win candidate.

MTB? It's time for that horse to bounce. A small bounce keeps him in the money.


There are others that I am using. Here's my tri tickets

$2 - 1,6/2,4,5/1,6
$2 - 1,6/1,6/2,4,5
$1 - 1,6/1,6/2,4,5,7,8,10
$2 - 2,4/1,6/1,7
$2 - 1,6/7/1,6

$1 - 1/2,4,5/2,4,5
$1 - 1/2,4,5/2,4,5,7,8,10
$1 - 2,4/1/2,4,5
$1 - 2,4/2,4,5/1

$1 - 6/2,4,5/2,4,5
$1 - 6/2,4,5/2,4,5,7,8,10
$1 - 2,4/6/2,4,5
$1 - 2,4/2,4,5/6

[Bettowin]

After handicapping this race I came up with the obvious:) MTB and CM are the two best in the race. One near the front and the other coming from behind. So...............

6,7
6,7
1,2,4,8,10
1,2,4,8,9,10
$50


6,7
6,7
1,2,4,8,9,10
$12



6,7
1,2,4,8,9,10
6,7
$12


6,7
1,2,4,6,7,8,10
1,2,4,6,7,8,10
$60


$134 total

[andymays]

I had said in another post I like Dunkirk.

On the Roger Stein show Jonathan Hardoon said his picks are free today so I am pasting them below from the website.

Pick Club Event Event Date
Jonathan Hardoon Belmont BELMONT Saturday, June 06, 2009
Comments
PLENTY OF RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RACES 4,5,12 & 13 SWITHCHED TO MAIN TRACK- HANDICAPPING DONE ACCORDINGLY. ****BEST PALYS**** HAVE FUN!
Pick As Follows


R1)10/1,3,9

R2) 3/1,4,6

R3) 8/2,4,7

R4) mt 5/11,12,13 Turf 3 /4,7,10

R5) MT 5/10,12,14 turf 5/3,8,10****

R6) 6/4,5

R7) 5/7,8

R8) 2/3,4,8

R9) 4/1,7,8***

R10) 6/2,5,8

R11) 2/4,6,7,10*****

R12) mt 16/8,13,15

R13)mt 16/2,4,12

[winningponies]

It is Mine that Bird's race to lose. We think Borel, who rode beautifully at Churchill (his home track), only had 4 mounts here at Belmont since 2007, and is not that familiar with the sweeping turns and the fact that you can't close from too far off the pace here. We like the following horses:

Summer Bird: If we throw out his Derby race (where he didn't care too much for the gooey track that day), and examine his Arkansas Derby race, it seems he should like the distance. A big change of jockey for him (K. Desormeux up) and the addition of blinkers to keep him closer to the pace may do the trick.

Dunkirk: We also throw out his Derby race, where he was in all kinds of trouble and we like the change of jockey (J. Velazquez riding for Pletcher). He has a very brisk workout for this (:47.1) and will be ready to spoil Borel's hat trick.

Charitable Man: Throw out his poly race at Keeneland and he is undefeated in 3 starts on the dirt (and 2 for 2 at Belmont). It looks very similar to a pattern followed by Coastal, who in 1979, won the Peter Pan in fast time, sported a sharp workout after it, and demolished Spectacular Bid's hope for the Triple Crown that year.

Mine That Bird and Miner's Escape will have to be used in the gimmicks. Good luck everyone!

[Marshall Bennett]

$50 Exacta : 7,10
$50 Trifecta : 7,10,8

Pick 4 : 1A,2,4,6,8 / 8 / 1,5,10,12 / 6,7,8,10 @$80

[andymays]

The surface is lightning fast. Most Likely Speed Favoring!

[joanied]

My heart wants Calvin & MTB to win today...we can't have a real Triple Crown, but for the sake of racing itself...Calvin winning today would sure give us a boost on the front page of the sporting world...I can see the headlines now...'Calvin's Crown'...

my picks lists for the Belmont (and the other biggies on the card today...no one is talking about the Acorn...no Rachel, no one cares??)
Belmont ; (3 lists)
MTB
Dunkirk
Charitable Man
Mr. Hot Stuff

MTB
Charitable Man
Flying Private
Chocolate Candy

MTB
Charitable Man
Dunkirk
Mr. Hot Stuff (I don't know why, just think this goofball might be there)


True North;
Benny the Bull
Fabulous Strike
Desert Key

Woody Stephens; (Regal Ransom-out)
Hull
This One's for Phil
Hello Broadway

Acorn;
Gabby's Golden Gal
Justwhistledixie
Four Gifts

Woodford Res;
Better Talk Now
Cowboy Cal
Champelysees

GOOD LUCK TO ALL OUR HANDICAPPERS....GOOD LUCK TO ALL THE HORSES AND THEIR CONNECTIONS...MAY THE BEST HORSES WIN TODAY AND ALL COME HOME SAFE & SOUND:ThmbUp:

All the 'trash talk' stops today...the shoulda, coulda, woulda's...
I can't wait :)
:jump: :jump: :jump:

Hey....let's all be sure to watch the gallop out:lol:

[Bill Cullen]

My heart wants Calvin & MTB to win today...

Me too.

[Light]

As far as I can tell,there are only 2 front end horses. Charitable Man and Miners's Escape. The rest look like deep closers.Miner's Escape is very sharp right now and he'll get a price in a race lacking pace. If they duel they're probably both dead. But I'm hoping Garcia will underestimate Miner's Escape and sit off him,then be in shock as the Miner draws off. Shot at a price. BTW, Pizzola's pick is Summer Bird.

[Overlay]

No offense, but aren't those the 3 M/L Favorites in order?

Darn! I don't know how many times I've told the Belmont linemaker that people would start to catch on if his picks were always the same as the ones I gave him! Well, I guess the cat's out of the bag, now. ;) (However, I do rate Mine That Bird (6-5 fair odds) and Charitable Man (2-1) as the only two overlays in the field, based on their morning-line odds (2-1 and 3-1, respectively.)

[joanied]

I would sure have liked to see Calvin ride a couple before the Belmont...and he's been off all week....no mounts...not liking this at all.
Kent D is on a hot streak....hhmmmmmmm

[Jay Trotter]

2,7 / 2,7,10 / 2,4,6,7,10 $12.00


#7 Mine That Bird - his to lose
#2 Dunkirk - Looks most likely to find Derby redemption
#10 Brave Victory - I'm going with a closer as my longshot
#6 Charitable Man - shown too much to be left out
#4 Summer Bird - again, going with a closer for a small part


Best of luck to everyone, especially Calvin Borel

[Racehorse]

Belmont 2009

hour and a half from post time

wagers

WIN ---- 9 Miner's Escape

Exacta ----- 9 Miner's Escape over 2 Dunkirk

the 9 is going wire to wire

---easy lightly contested fractions @ 2fl and 4fl

---the 9 will be NO worse than second at those two calls and I forsee him actually in the lead,

---but the 6 Charitable Man could try also for the lead ... doesn't matter as the pace will be mostly unpressed by the remainder of the field who will be intent on stalking

---racing will be pretty slow even as far as 6fl when some of the stalkers will start trying to close up on the 9 and the 6

---the 9 will turn a turn of speed as he gets to the 8fl pole (1mi) and start to open more daylight as he hits the quarter pole

--- last sixteenth will be THE RACE

--- Miner's Edge holding on to the closing onslaught of 2 Dunkirk, 8 Flying Private, 1 Chocolate Candy, and the final kick of 7 Mine That Bird

I forecast that the final finish will be

9-2-7-1

[tucker6]

Win: Charitable Man

Place: Summer Bird

Show: Dunkirk

[Robert Goren]

If any one cares it will be the :6: wire to wire. As usual I no clue who will run 2nd or 3rd.

[Burls]

I'm with PA on this one all the way.

:4: :7: :8: EXB,TBX

[Burls]

I'm with PA on this one all the way.

:4: :7: :8: EXB,TBXThe INQUIRY is on :2: Dunkirk who gave :6: Charitable Man a minor side-push. Hard to say how this will go, but I could still have the EX.

[Burls]

The INQUIRY is on :2: Dunkirk who gave :6: Charitable Man a minor side-push. Hard to say how this will go, but I could still have the EX.
Nope. ... :4: :2: :7: It's Official.

[surfdog89]

The other Bird............. Summer Bird ......... adding Blinkers for the first time should have him closer to the pace......... lightly raced fresh horse is my pick
:cool: fifty to win on him.......... pick threes

[Burls]

fifty to win on him.......... pick threesNice hit!!
Good luck on the P3s.

[surfdog89]

thks ........... great day at the track:cool:

[andymays]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZThquH5t0ow

[WinterTriangle]

Isn't this a bit shortsighted.

Only in retrospect. ;)

I felt fully invested in my opinion at the time. :lol:

[sally]

Summer Bird

MTB

and

Dunkirk

boxed in the tri and exacta

WELL DONE! :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

WELL DONE! :ThmbUp:

Yeah, congrats guys, surfdog and rasta and CJ's Dad and I'm sure a few others won some $$ today on Race 11. :jump:

[Grits]

And WinterT., I stuck to him, bud, betting him to win and place, with the exacta. I'm glad I wasn't swayed by the seasoned NY trainers.

Its a great game. ;)

Isn't this a bit shortsighted, given that similar was said regarding Chip Woolley and the Kentucky Derby winner? Noting this same line of thought may be carried tomorrow in regard to, both, Woolley and Ice?

Summer Bird, his trainer and his jock pulled a not too shabby feat finishing 6th in the world's most crowded and glaringly contentious horserace--being it was a first time event for all three, if I'm not mistaken.

I don't see, with four races, how adding first time blinkers, and a jockey that knows Belmont Park and this distance (better than the jock who managed the 6th place finish in Louisville) can be seen as, remotely, close to "throwing whatever sticks."

To be honest, I'd say its pretty smart, particularly, if one notes how well the horse has closed in each of his races. Not to mention if he gets a better trip this time out. But of course, I could quite easily be wrong.

Now, wouldn't it be something to see 2 Birdstones hit the exacta and trifecta?

Like Zito says, in the Belmont, strange things can happen that last 1/8th of a mile. And he would surely know.

I might add . . . . whatever the horse is wearing, he might surprise us.

[tucker6]

Only in retrospect. ;)

I felt fully invested in my opinion at the time. :lol:
Is this a great sport or what?? :lol:

[Grits]

Fine, fine work, Cjd. ;) Summer Bird

MTB

and

Dunkirk

boxed in the tri and exacta

[off'nclear]

I asked for whoever was highest odds, got Luv Gov and put my $2 across the board. I feel obliged to put something on the highest odds horse. (Sympathy bets). I know that these do sometimes win...just not when I've got $ on it.

Husband had tri & super. (Can you tell that we don't handle $ in the same manner?)

I just love to watch all horses (with the exception of Western Pleasure class) do their thing: run in circles, jump things. outwit cattle, etc.

We went to OTB in Sedona, AZ...pretty swanky place. With the strangest bar in the world. Every dumpy bar I've ever been in could make a Harvey Wallbanger. Told the waiter how to make one, he comes back and says they don't have Galiano. ??? Settled for bloody mary with lunch.

Anyway, good lunch, fun to watch, and I do like the idea that someone had suggesting Birdsong for HOY. Sounds good to me!

[winningponies]

It is Mine that Bird's race to lose. We think Borel, who rode beautifully at Churchill (his home track), only had 4 mounts here at Belmont since 2007, and is not that familiar with the sweeping turns and the fact that you can't close from too far off the pace here. We like the following horses:

Summer Bird: If we throw out his Derby race (where he didn't care too much for the gooey track that day), and examine his Arkansas Derby race, it seems he should like the distance. A big change of jockey for him (K. Desormeux up) and the addition of blinkers to keep him closer to the pace may do the trick.

Dunkirk: We also throw out his Derby race, where he was in all kinds of trouble and we like the change of jockey (J. Velazquez riding for Pletcher). He has a very brisk workout for this (:47.1) and will be ready to spoil Borel's hat trick.

Charitable Man: Throw out his poly race at Keeneland and he is undefeated in 3 starts on the dirt (and 2 for 2 at Belmont). It looks very similar to a pattern followed by Coastal, who in 1979, won the Peter Pan in fast time, sported a sharp workout after it, and demolished Spectacular Bid's hope for the Triple Crown that year.

Mine That Bird and Miner's Escape will have to be used in the gimmicks. Good luck everyone!

Congrats to everyone who cashed in on Summer Bird (and the Ex, Tri and Super)!

[judd]

i like MTB but tossed him as the fav.

I like Miner's Bird but think Dunkirk looks weak on his workouts.

Best,

Bill C
so much for weak workouts :kiss:

[joanied]

Congrats :ThmbUp: to everyone that cashed a ticket yesterday... you all did a bang up job of handicapping...or just got lucky:) ...either way...I'm happy for everyone:jump:
I kept an eye on Summer Bird all week...had him on my picks lists, then tossed him... that'll teach me :faint: ...
I'm sure we'll be talking all about the Belmont and the road to the TC for the next week...this thread is for posting picks...so I'll leave it at that...

OH... I did have a winner yesterday...Gabby's Golden Gal :)

[FenceBored]

OH... I did have a winner yesterday...Gabby's Golden Gal :)

Were you playing the "I got my butt kicked by Rachel, so now I'm going to kick yours" angle?

[joanied]

Were you playing the "I got my butt kicked by Rachel, so now I'm going to kick yours" angle?

Nope...just the 'Baffert wire to wire' angle...
:) :) :)

[Stevie Belmont]

That Exacta came back nice...Should have played it knowing I liked Dunkirk and the S Bird was the word... $121...not shabby

Hats off to PA for making Summer Bird his top pick!!

[off'nclear]

when I didn't thank all of you for helping husband's bets. I'd printed out most all of your choices and the processes by which you'd made your decisions.

I'll blame it on being so surprised by the bar's odd shortcoming.

Thank you all.

[Stevie Belmont]

The winner was not a shock at all. Had a nice late kick and was pointed to this race.

Dunkirk ran a great race. He was on the lead most of the way, passed by Charitable Man, and dug in for more in the stretch. He was as game as he could be. Happy with the way he ran.

I have snap shot up from the Belmont on my homepage

http://www.ThoroughbredZone.Com (http://www.thoroughbredzone.com/)





ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Belmont Stakes is Dunkirk. Dunkirk looks primed to make a strong bounce back run after his dull Kentucky Derby effort. And a tremendous amount of respect to Mine That Bird who has every right to be pegged for the top spot in the Belmont Stakes. This is a tough call, and ThoroughbredZone has labored over this for awhile. I really like MTB and it would be great for the sport, and to see Calvin Borel win all three Triple Crown races would be something else. Below is a close up of each horse, and how they might do. And further down are a few ways you might want to play these guys.





Chocolate Candy: Chocolate Candy is an honest horse who has done all of his best running on a synthetic surface out in California. He will be running for the first time tomorrow on a fast, dirt surface. (track could still be wet) He has been pointed to the Belmont Stakes since he finished the Kentucky Derby. Super trainer Jerry Hollendorfer must be respected. He has put some nice stamina-building works into this horse, and a solid effort is expected. He was very wide in the Santa Anita Derby and still finished a fast rallying second to Pioneerof the Nile. His Kentucky Derby race was a poor effort, but that race is throw out, like it’s been for so many other horses. He will be making his 11th career start and has a good bottom to him. He is a solid finisher who should rebound off his Kentucky Derby effort. User Under

Dunkirk: The Kentucky Derby was a disaster from start to finish. The race is a complete toss. The 3.7 million dollar purchase has class, and talent. ThoroughbredZone covered his debut race back in January (http://thoroughbredzone.com/2009/01/22/first-time-starter-alert%E2%80%A6won-token-and-dunkirk-set-for-debuts-at-gulfstream-park-on-saturday/). He ran a powerful race against the top rated and ThoroughbredZone’s #1 Kentucky Derby Prospect Quality Road in the Florida Derby back in March. He launched a powerful move to hook and pass Quality Road, who was able to dig in and turn Dunkirk back on a very speed-favoring surface. Dunkirk did gallop out past Quality Road in the Florida Derby, which was a positive sign. There is no doubt that Quality Road was the best 3-year-old colt in the land at the time. Connections skipped the Preakness Stakes for the Belmont Stakes. Dunkirk has had three published workouts since the Kentucky Derby. He has had two fast breezes, followed by a slower breeze. And another positive sign is the fact that Todd Pletcher has indicated he has gained some weight since the Kentucky Derby. He looks sharp and ready to go. A much-improved effort is expected in the Belmont Stakes. Top Selection

Mr. Hot Stuff: He had a disaster of trip in the Kentucky Derby. He has still yet to run on a fast dirt surface. He has been working well over the Keeneland poly surface. He ran a good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but still would have to take it up several notches here to be considered a legitimate threat for top prize. However, he is eligible to improve in his first try on a fast dirt track. He looks to be a late developer. User Under

Summer Bird: Summer Bird is a lightly raced colt. He will add blinkers for the first time in the Belmont Stakes. He was closing well in the Arkansas Derby at a mile and an eighth at Oaklawn in April. The Kentucky Derby was a disaster, as it was for so many others. He would still have to improve a great deal to win. A strong pace and a late kick will help his cause. He should be a square price. 10-cent supers will be on the betting menu for the Belmont Stakes, and this horse fits the bill in the fourth spot at a big price. User Under

Luv Gov: He is one of two D. Wayne Lukas colts ready for action. He should be one of the early pacesetters along with Miner’s Escape. Luv Gov will me making his 12th career start, but he has yet to run a race that would indicate he could win a race of this magnitude. Luv Gov will go as far as he can on, or near the lead. Hanging in there late will be difficult. Sports a good 6 furlong work since the Preakness Stakes. Not Using

Charitable Man: The runaway winner of the Peter Pan Stakes last month is clearly the talk of the Belmont Stakes. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has exuded confidence in him, stating that he would not change places with anyone. He will be making his third start off a lengthy layoff. He is eligible to improve, but ran a strong race in the Peter Pan just a month ago. He will have to come back and run another strong race to win the Belmont Stakes. He was behind a hot pace set by Hello Broadway in the Peter Pan, who eventually faded. Charitable Man looks like he could be on or near the lead in a stalking position. At some point during the stretch, he should have the lead, but will have to fend off Dunkirk and the hard charging Mine That Bird. That final furlong could be his undoing. Talent is there, and the confident connections are a plus. He is an interesting prospect. There are a combination of pros and cons with this horse. User Under


Mine That Bird: The upset Kentucky Derby winner, and hard charging runner-up in the Preakness Stakes is ready to give it another go in the mile and a half Belmont Stakes. And there is nothing to indicate he will not be ready to make another power packed late run. He proved his class in the Preakness running behind the best 3-year-old filly in the land Rachel Alexandra. He is a well-seasoned gelding who raced as a 2-year-old. Calvin Borel is extremely confident in this horse ability and has already stated he is the winner. In addition, ThoroughbredZone is confident in his ability. Mine That Bird is the most likely winner if Dunkirk cannot stay on for the mile and a half. If he once again comes with that same strong kick, he has shown in his two previous races, he is a huge threat to win two thirds of the Triple Crown. He has more pros than cons, of any other horse in the race. Who ever has the lead late will have to fend him off. Being a May foal, this guy might actually be getting better at this time of year. Some have indicated he is not a wise win play as a favorite, which is not the wisest way to handle the best horse in the race. I hope he runs well. User On Top And Under

Flying Private: The other D. Wayne Lukas entry. One of only two horses in the Belmont Stakes to run in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. The other being Mine That Bird. This horse has been improving throughout the spring. He had some issues in the stretch of the Preakness Stakes, yet finished strongly to finish fourth. The Derby was a disaster and a throw out race. He will be making his 13th start of his career in the Belmont Stakes, making him the most experienced horse in the race. He also fired off a career best speed figure in the Preakness Stakes. Another strong rally in the long Belmont Stretch, and he could make an impact. I feel this horse could pose the biggest upset threat of any horse in the race. D. Wayne Lukas has had success in the Belmont Stakes with four wins. Flying Private has all the indications he is ready to run another good race. User, and If he is better than 10/1…A Saver win bet.

Miner’s Escape: Miner’s Escape is coming off a front-running win in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on May 2, 2009. There is little doubt he will be forwardly placed right out of the gate in the Belmont Stakes, to help set up a late run of Brave Victory, who is by the same owner Robert LaPenta and trained by Nick Zito. Nick Zito has been the man in recent years with upset wins in the Belmont Stakes, and both of his horses tomorrow will be over bet. Miner’s Escape will go as far as he can on the front end, and looks to duplicate Da’Tara’s front running Belmont win of a year ago. To say that for him to go gate to wire in an impossibility might be an over statement, but that is exactly what the plans are with him. He has a good foundation and you know Nick has had his eyes on the Belmont for a while. User Under

Brave Victory: The other half of the uncoupled Nick Zito/Robert LaPenta entry. Brave Victory will be making his fourth start off a layoff, and looks to be cycling to a top effort in the Belmont Stakes. He has had two nice breezes since his good third place finish to Charitable Man in the Peter Pan Stakes. Another move forward is more than possible, as Nick Zito has probably mapped out a path to the Belmont Stakes some time ago. A top effort is expected. Whether that top effort is good enough for the win remains to be seen, but an on the board finish is not out of the question for Nick Zito who knows how to get one ready for the Belmont. Both of Nick Zito’s horses will probably be over bet considering his recent success in the Belmont Stakes. User Under



Belmont Stakes Plays




Dunkirk - Top Pick For The Win

Dunkirk-Mine That Bird Exacta Box

Flying Private - Saver Win Bet



10-Cent Supers are on the betting menu, and they offer an opportunity to spread around with some price horses. So going with the 10-super could very well be a way to go…





2,7 / 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 /1,3,4,8,9,10 / 1,3,4,8,9,10 $28





And a Super Saver Play With Belmont Boys On Top





8,9,10/8,9,10/2,6,7/2,6,7 $3.60




All in all a real blockbuster day of racing at Belmont Park. 6 stakes races. The True North, Just A Game, Woody Stephens, Acorn, Manhattan and The Belmont Stakes to cap it off. There is also a 1 million dollar guaranteed Pick 4 and Pick 6.

Fabulous Strike looks primed in the True North…

We will give some updates at Belmont if there is anything of importance. Also try to get some tweets from the paddock if any horse in particular stands out. And an eye will be on Monmouth Park of course.