Running style

[redeye007]

I've been noticing that a lot of horses that are going off favored that have a running style of S0,S1,S2 are losing. Is there a way to determine how to eliminate these sustained runners from consideration as prime contenders?

[cmoore]

I've been noticing that a lot of horses that are going off favored that have a running style of S0,S1,S2 are losing. Is there a way to determine how to eliminate these sustained runners from consideration as prime contenders?

If there's only one E/Ep style runner in the race hurts the chances of the S style runners. The pace will likely be slow and that will leave too much energy left for the E style runner or runners closer to the pace...

A slower pace usually hurts the chances of the S style runner on the dirt..

On the turf it's a different story..S style runners win more often even against slow paces at a higher rate then on the dirt.

[matthewsiv]

Check the track bias for the race.

As said unless there is a strong pace in the race stalkers have less chance of winning.

[fmolf]

I've been noticing that a lot of horses that are going off favored that have a running style of S0,S1,S2 are losing. Is there a way to determine how to eliminate these sustained runners from consideration as prime contenders?
i am generally suspect of any s type horse that is the favorite unless there are three e type horses with at least 7/8 speed points

[justin13892002]

The ONLY way an S type wins, is if the pace breaks down, and all the other horses were dueling.

S wins if...

There are E and EP's that you see will duel.
There are P style horses that you suspect will be close to the pace, and then they will be sucked into the duel...


Other than that, S types do not win that often.

[46zilzal]

S types win routes all the time. It is relativity that most miss.

DEEP movers have three problems
1) they HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PACE and can only react to what the hand deals them.
2) the rider has to make a best guess just when to move and usually makes that too late even with a strong horse.
3) TRAFFIC trouble can stop a strong move in it's tracks.

[Charlie D]

I've been noticing that a lot of horses that are going off favored that have a running style of S0,S1,S2 are losing. Is there a way to determine how to eliminate these sustained runners from consideration as prime contenders?


Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw will help you

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=55059#post55059



Have fun and all the best

[Bettowin]

I've been noticing that a lot of horses that are going off favored that have a running style of S0,S1,S2 are losing. Is there a way to determine how to eliminate these sustained runners from consideration as prime contenders?

Which tracks and which surfaces? That makes a big difference. If you are talking about multiple tracks, surfaces and distances well then......... it just depends:)

Sorry, with the information given in the question that's about all I can do but others have made good valid points.

[InFront]

This is the exact kind of mechanical stuff you don't have to guess at if any theories are valid or not. Simply run it all through a good size database and see it in black and white. Does running style matter by track, by distance, by surface, by class, etc.? Does it matter what type of "before the fact" PACE the race will be such as Honest, Slow, Fast, etc. and what type of running style performs better.

The answers are pretty much NO and NO and NO. Regardless we all know that E and E/P horses not only win more races but win at a higher% of their actual number of runners that run. But we also know that P or S horses pay more in general. So is there a better type of running style to play. Pretty much NO again. Sorry to be blunt but just saying what I see.

The public is not good they are very, very, very, very good and are "tuned" into such factors as this and many others and compensate as needed. As Schwarz said, "To win at horse racing is not a BATTLE it is a WAR!"

[Tom]

Did you run all this through a database?

[cj]

This is the exact kind of mechanical stuff you don't have to guess at if any theories are valid or not. Simply run it all through a good size database and see it in black and white. Does running style matter by track, by distance, by surface, by class, etc.? Does it matter what type of "before the fact" PACE the race will be such as Honest, Slow, Fast, etc. and what type of running style performs better.

The answers are pretty much NO and NO and NO. Regardless we all know that E and E/P horses not only win more races but win at a higher% of their actual number of runners that run. But we also know that P or S horses pay more in general. So is there a better type of running style to play. Pretty much NO again. Sorry to be blunt but just saying what I see.


You are way, way, way off if you believe that. You clearly did not run this data through a database.

[InFront]

You are way, way, way off if you believe that. You clearly did not run this data through a database.

Yes, yes and yes. Based on large studies the public is very "in tuned" to running styles of horses and they bet accordingly. They know that P and S "labeled" horses win less races this is why they have higher average payoffs. They know that E and E/P "labeled" horses win at a higher rate which is why they have lower average payoffs.

I have even broke running styles down by the "predicted" pace of a race and never seen anything that pops out. The first problem is just cause a horse is "labeled" as a E or S horse doesn't mean it will run that way today. Just the same, just cause a race has a "estimated prediction" that it will be a SLOW pace race doesn't mean it will. All these factors/labels are based on "before the fact" not after the fact.

I once asked BRIS this. Some of their products list what type of running styles are winning at each track/distance the most and they give recent and longterm percentages. So I asked them are those stats based on "actual running styles" as listed in the PPs. They said NO they are based on "after the fact" running styles meaning if a horse was listed as a P horse but ran like a E/P horse and won it would be counted as a E/P. That is like saying how wire to wire horses or lead 1st call horses are winning at a specific track/distance. What good is that since that study is based on "after the fact" information.

I'm not saying completely ignore running styles I am just saying based as a whole they don't give us much to rely on who will win or lose a race. I actually think there is more to Quirin points than running styles.

Hey, just my opinion on what I seen thus far so you can take it or leave it as that.

[cj]

Hey, just my opinion on what I seen thus far so you can take it or leave it as that.

I'll leave it. I have a huge database, and before the fact running styles have a huge discrepancy in ROIs, and it can be overwhelming when broken down by surface, distance, track, etc.

[Dave Schwartz]

This is the exact kind of mechanical stuff you don't have to guess at if any theories are valid or not. Simply run it all through a good size database and see it in black and white. Does running style matter by track, by distance, by surface, by class, etc.? Does it matter what type of "before the fact" PACE the race will be such as Honest, Slow, Fast, etc. and what type of running style performs better.

The answers are pretty much NO and NO and NO. Regardless we all know that E and E/P horses not only win more races but win at a higher% of their actual number of runners that run. But we also know that P or S horses pay more in general. So is there a better type of running style to play. Pretty much NO again. Sorry to be blunt but just saying what I see.


InFront,

I must respectfully, disagree.

The fact that they pay more (and that this is automatically a good thing) is faulty logic.

I am not saying that specialization (on late horses) cannot work, but there must be a basis for it that is proveable with a database.

One of my clients specializes in 4.5f races. That is all he plays. Why? Because he came to understand that the only thing that matters in THAT kind of race is F1. He makes a small living from just those races.

My point is that if you decide to bet late in THOSE races you will get clobbered on a regular basis. Does the public know that? Sure, but (like you) enough of them are STILL attracted by the higher prices to make the best-of-the-early profitable.

But, hey - difference of opinion is what makes the world such an interesting place.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Tom]

A horse leading by 5 at the first call gets two speed points.
A horse 3rd by 2 gets two points.
Hardly seems equitable.

Should a horse with this:

1 - 2
1 - 3
1 - 5

Be rated equal to a horse with this:

3-2
3-2
3-2

The first gets one point more.


As far as the BRIS profile goes, I would say it would be meaningful to
model and profile, that is, track what the winners were assigned going in and how they actually ran.

(Pre race/actual)
EP E
E E
EP E
EP E
P EP

Is a different track from:

EP P
EP P
EP P
P SP

[InFront]

As far as the BRIS profile goes, I would say it would be meaningful to
model and profile, that is, track what the winners were assigned going in and how they actually ran.

(Pre race/actual)
EP E
E E
EP E
EP E
P EP

Is a different track from:

EP P
EP P
EP P
P SP

Now this is something that would be difficult to test. Cause while we have the pre-race running styles we would need the charts and then TRY to assign the actual running style of each horse. As you see very judgemental and difficult to do.

But as far as using pre-race running styles I never seen much to them. Yes, as posted early speed styles win more, late closing styles pay more. And while there may be slight flucations based on track or distance or even surface I seen nothing that pops out at me or anything that much value even thought it seems most disagree on this.

I want to make it clear that I do slightly use running style labels in some of my angles but they are also based on so many other I think more important factors that they are only a tiny, tiny fraction of the entire algorithm. Believe me if I thought more emphasis and weight should be placed on running styles then I would.

[fmolf]

Now this is something that would be difficult to test. Cause while we have the pre-race running styles we would need the charts and then TRY to assign the actual running style of each horse. As you see very judgemental and difficult to do.

But as far as using pre-race running styles I never seen much to them. Yes, as posted early speed styles win more, late closing styles pay more. And while there may be slight flucations based on track or distance or even surface I seen nothing that pops out at me or anything that much value even thought it seems most disagree on this.

I want to make it clear that I do slightly use running style labels in some of my angles but they are also based on so many other I think more important factors that they are only a tiny, tiny fraction of the entire algorithm. Believe me if I thought more emphasis and weight should be placed on running styles then I would.
i use bris and just because a horse is an E8 this does not mean he will vie for the early lead....it only means that in his last threeraces he has been in the lead....the time of that first quarter still matters......he may not even be close to the lead today if other e types can run faster first quarters from more advantageous post positions so you need to analyze the actual pace and not rely on the running style/speed points of the horses...for me those are just guidelines

[46zilzal]

Positional style analysis is full of unsuspecting holes

[fmolf]

Positional style analysis is full of unsuspecting holes
it has its place used in conjunction with actual running times

[46zilzal]

it has its place used in conjunction with actual running times
IT makes a huge difference differentiating who can go on, on the lead with an S/P energy distribution, and those who will not be able to in todays match up with an E/P energy distribution. Their % medians can and are usually a great deal apart.

[fmolf]

IT makes a huge difference differentiating who can go on, on the lead with an S/P energy distribution, and those who will not be able to in todays match up with an E/P energy distribution. Their % medians can and are usually a great deal apart.
every body has their methods and i can usually tell which horses are in form and fit and ready to go with out all the foot per second calculations and % of energy distributed... track profiles are helpful in a general type of a way for me in pointing out possible bias and what running styles have an advantage

[InFront]

One of my clients specializes in 4.5f races. That is all he plays. Why? Because he came to understand that the only thing that matters in THAT kind of race is F1. He makes a small living from just those races.



Dave, with your client may make sense cause he is mainly found something in a F1 factor not running style as we are talking about. F1 is a factor that can be directly correlated to another horse while a running style factor is not.

If we can ever determine who will get the 1st call lead accurately enough we will win many races and show profits simply cause that leader wins 28% of all races that run. But using factors like style or even pace ratings don't always give us that high degree of early speed accuracy we need or want.

[cj]

Positional style analysis is full of unsuspecting holes

So is velocity style analysis. Both have strong points and weaknesses. Used together they are both stronger than they are alone.

[46zilzal]

So is velocity style analysis. Both have strong points and weaknesses. Used together they are both stronger than they are alone.
that is somewhat true

[fmolf]

that is somewhat truewe all agree that their are many different ways to view a race and the more angles you can look at it from the more thorough your analysis might be

[Tee]

what's true & what isn't? We are all dying to know.


that is somewhat true

[Greyfox]

I've been noticing that a lot of horses that are going off favored that have a running style of S0,S1,S2 are losing. Is there a way to determine how to eliminate these sustained runners from consideration as prime contenders?

If, on a given day, a particular style of runner isn't winning, simply toss it.
That's the easiest way to eliminate any runner from consideration as a prime contender.

[46zilzal]

If, on a given day, a particular style of runner isn't winning, simply toss it.
That's the easiest way to eliminate any runner from consideration as a prime contender.
True, I make my way with speed horses. Inner Aqu is usually a haven for them, particularly when it is cold, BUT this year in late Dec, early January it changed and I watched until it came back.

[Greyfox]

True, I make my way with speed horses. Inner Aqu is usually a haven for them, particularly when it is cold, BUT this year in late Dec, early January it changed and I watched until it came back.

I agree. There are several times on the California Poly tracks that I've just refused to play the early horses as some days the track just murders the speed.
It's as if the track is playing a furlong longer. Other days, you can't afford to ignore the early horses at all. Even in predicted pace battles, one of them goes on to score the win.

[Charlie D]

If, on a given day, a particular style of runner isn't winning, simply toss it.
That's the easiest way to eliminate any runner from consideration as a prime contender.

The easiest way to lose money too imho

[Greyfox]

The easiest way to lose money too imho

You'll lose more money betting a running style that the track energy itself will not let win today than simply tossing that style. It's just that easy.

[Charlie D]

The dynamics of one race (The Match Up) and it's result have nothing to do with the Dynamics of another race and it's result.

Each race is a seperate and "tossing" one running style because of a series of earlier results have gone to one particular running style without evaluting the Match Up is an easy way to lose money.


Evalute each race and it's dynamics on it's own to find the TRUE contenders - Best E, Best Sustained, Best Late and then throw out the horse(s) you think will be compromised by the act Dynamics, be it E, S or L

[Charlie D]

Crist on Inner


Have you heard that early speed does well on the IDT? Of course you have, ad nauseam, and while there's some statistical truth to it, I don't think that's a particularly useful impression or basis for winter handicapping, since it's an overrrated and overbet approach. It appears that way for reasons that have nothing to do with the track itself: a generally lower level of competition that includes a higher percentage of the most hopeless of the hopeless, who are outrun early and late; uncompetitive races with two dominant entrants who run 1-2 around the track; and a switch from one-turn 7f and 8f races on the main track that are more demanding on front-runners to more speed-favoring 8f, 8.32f, and 8.5f routes around two turns



What Mr Crist is talking about applies at every racetrack, in other words "The Match Up supercedes everything"


And with that, I leave it at that

All the best

[Tom]

These are my version of QSP for sprints - based on actual probabilities of a horse getting the lead based on position and beaten lengths. I did this in December 2005, so it probably needs updating, and it considers only dirt, no turf or poly.

[Tom]

And for routes.....

[Tom]

Mike Pizzola talked years ago (1990's) about two types of horses - positional and velocity.

A positional horse wanted to be positionally located in a race - be it on the lead or trailing the pack. If it wanted the lead, it would run whatever fist fraction it needed to run to get there, and many times that was the end of it. Need the lead types fall in this category.

A positional horse would run his race, either in the lead or pressing it, whatever his velocity ability dictated. Many closer fall in this, also - some horse will trail no matter what the pace.

Horses are living animals, not racing cars.

[Greyfox]

Horses are living animals, not racing cars.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Yes. And because of the "herd instinct" in most races Pace becomes a factor. If they were racing cars, Speed around the oval would mean more.

[proximity]

IT makes a huge difference differentiating who can go on, on the lead with an S/P energy distribution, and those who will not be able to in todays match up with an E/P energy distribution. Their % medians can and are usually a great deal apart.

46z, reading through the thread i detect some similarities in our handicapping although i suspect my method of measuring energy distribution is somewhat crude compared to what you are doing. if you're still reading the thread can you elaborate on the basics of "% median"?

[46zilzal]

46z, reading through the thread i detect some similarities in our handicapping although i suspect my method of measuring energy distribution is somewhat crude compared to what you are doing. if you're still reading the thread can you elaborate on the basics of "% median"?
Race is divided into three fractions. EACH fraction is expressed in feet per second so that the total of those three is called TOTAL ENERGY. The SUM of the first two fractions expended by the 2nd call divided by the total energy gives you the % median.

[jasperson]

Some times a horse label S has enough early speed to go to the front and therefore might be a good bet. I search the 4 tracks that I am going to play today for such a horse and did not find one. Seismic Shift S3 was the closest horse that I could find. There is plenty of early speed in this race by 1,3,and 7. The 5 is an e/p6 type. Seismic Shift might be a good play at ml odds of 8/1.

[jasperson]

The track was muddy and seismac shift never got a call:blush:

[Hosshead]

Some times a horse label S has enough early speed to go to the front and therefore might be a good bet.
I've become wary of these type of situations that at first glance look like stealing candy from a baby.
Often these S types "on the lead", will not win because they are running against their natural running style.

[proximity]

I've become wary of these type of situations that at first glance look like stealing candy from a baby.
Often these S types "on the lead", will not win because they are running against their natural running style.

i think there is a tendency for these types of horses to get "shuffled back".

[fmolf]

i think there is a tendency for these types of horses to get "shuffled back".
if a track is playing fair i have a hard time tossing any running style without further analysis of the race.in my estimation biases are pretty few and far between...most tracks play fair nowadays.if a prevalence of long odds closers come in then i may think bias...or illogical speed and fade horses lasting to the wire....i have to see this with my own eyes... i am not good enough to see this on paper...horse against horse is what i handicap