Stagnant economy eroding mutuel prices?

[lansdale]

I know this question is so vague and open-ended as to be almost useless, but I am very curious as to whether anyone else is experiencing a noticeable drop in the odds of their winners, or I'm just dealing with my own small-sample tundra.

For me this has been the case for about the last 6-8 weeks at both major and mid-level tracks - I check about 4-5 per day for plays. I've never before had quite had such a long run of the odds on so many of my picks being hammered down to exactly what I would have made them - therefore, of course, no play.
Since I'm usually betting only in the win and exacta pools, this kind of thing may affect me more than exotics players.

If this is more than an anomaly, the only rationale I can think of is that the weak economy may have taken a certain chunk of the discretionary money out of the pools. As a blackjack player, this is easier to see, since so many casinos are nearly empty, and as a friend observed, the only people still playing are pros and addicted gamblers. I'm curious if the same is true of horseracing. Grateful for any feedback.

Cheers,

lansdale

[DeanT]

I am reading a good book by a UK bettor who has been adjusting his personal odds line downwards based on prices the past year or so. I hasten to post this as the odds line guys dont like it, but this betting market as handles go down and real time information go up, is getting damn efficient, imo.

[acorn54]

"dumb money" has been steadily leaving the horseracing betting basically what you have today is computer sharks competing with one another. similiar to what happened to internet poker with the banning of online wagering in that venue. the "fish" are no longer there for easy pickings by the pros.

[bobbyt62]

the addicted aren't betting much per race, either, leaving the pools very efficient. the takeout really shows now. chalk, mid level and longshot horses still win, but over a large sample, probably at a rate much closer to true odds than in the past. i call it odds compression. obviously there are still overlays, but they don't come as often or as large.

[redeye007]

I believe that there is a lot of gamblers dutching horses at some of the major tracks where the win pools are large enough . I see it over and over where in a field of 10 or 12 entries 5 or 6 runners have almost identical odds. that 20/1 shot 10 years ago that paid $45 is likely now to pay $14. Also more and more players are using software that uses the same files so everyone is basically coming up with the same plays. :)

[dvlander]

I play only on an earlybird basis and have noticed this odds dilemma as well. I have so many horses with morning lines of 6-1 or higher that get knocked down to 5-2 or less. It seems so rare to get a decent price now. In prior years, my average mutuel was around $11 and for calendar year 2009, it's barely above $10. I'm still picking about the same percentage of winners, but it's tougher to achieve ongoing profitability.

I was using conditional betting for a while but the final odds clicks at 0 MTP and less have such drastic swings that I find it largely useless. It was turning into a Murphy's Law scenario for me. The tote accepts me for losers and I'm shut out of winners or at least it seems that is largely the trend.

It's definitely a tougher game these days.

Dale

[46zilzal]

There are services and tons of computer programs out there. SOME of the public is better informed.

Our mutuels manager tells us about big international syndicates that play the same courses around the world in differing pools manipulating the prices the way it was shown in the movie The Grifters, but on a larger scale. COMPUTERS and better communication allows for that.

[lansdale]

"dumb money" has been steadily leaving the horseracing betting basically what you have today is computer sharks competing with one another. similiar to what happened to internet poker with the banning of online wagering in that venue. the "fish" are no longer there for easy pickings by the pros.

Hi acorn54,

Thanks for your reply, and for the others who also replied in this thread. Since most gave pretty much the same answer, this is a general reponse. I'm well aware that value has been disappearing from the mutuel pools and that the game is now tougher to beat than 10 or even 5 years ago, due to all the factors that were mentioned. What I was really asking about was the last two months only. FWIW, I had my best winter ever, and then prices seemed to suddenly drop off a cliff. But since no one responded with a similar experience, I'm hoping that this was only a small-sample anomaly. If not, I'm out of this game for the foreseeable future.

Thanks again.

Cheers,

lansdale

[lansdale]

I am reading a good book by a UK bettor who has been adjusting his personal odds line downwards based on prices the past year or so. I hasten to post this as the odds line guys dont like it, but this betting market as handles go down and real time information go up, is getting damn efficient, imo.

Hi Dean T.,

Appreciate your response - this is the timeframe I was asking about. If the trend you describe continues, and I'm afraid that many indicators point in that direction, I'll be seeking greener pastures.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Cangamble]

Bettors with programs that wait until one minute to post are identifying overlays in as objective manner as it is possible when handicapping horses.
If there is an emotional favorite, betting programs will uncover the overlays in the race and the result is that the win odds become efficient.

In other words, a 16% takeout 10 or 20 years ago, was much easier to cut into than now.

[Imriledup]

I think there is just more information pointing more people to the winners than there used to be. Its almost like a group-think with all these 'free' Beyer figs running around, Tvg interviewing trainers, message boards where smart people share information, etc.


People are just smarter and the racing secretaries aren't doing as good of a job getting 9 horses to be 'on the wire' together. (they say a racing secretaries dream is to card races where there are 9 noses on the wire in a 9 horse field)

I don't think this has anything to do with the economy.

[DeanT]

Hi Dean T.,

Appreciate your response - this is the timeframe I was asking about. If the trend you describe continues, and I'm afraid that many indicators point in that direction, I'll be seeking greener pastures.

Cheers,

lansdale
There are still good overlays in exotics, imo. I think if I was starting to play at this time of the information age, and did not have betfair or good rebates like most don't have, I would play the Texas pick 3's, Meadowlands pick 4's and CD and KEE exotics.

JMO, but I think you would have a better shot to win looking for low take exotics. it's a tough game in the best of times.

PS: I used to think concentrating on biases was best, but the past year it has been amazing to watch. With so little dumb money around, the bias horses are bet off the board as soon as a bias might be apparent. Horses you figure should be 3-1 are 8-5 and jog. There are some wickedly sharp players out there.

[cmoore]

I agree lansdale..The economy has effected the prices..Smaller fields..Less racing..Smaller pools..Less dumb money in the pools..The economy has effected the pools imo..Plus the quality of horses is diminishing..

I have a brother in Vegas and Florida..Both tell me it's dead in there areas when it comes to tourism compared to a 2-3 years ago..Remember a lot of peoples credit has dried up..Bankruptcies are at all time high..Foreclosures are at a all time high..Unemploment is higher then its' been since the 80's..

[Cadillakin]

I am reading a good book by a UK bettor who has been adjusting his personal odds line downwards based on prices the past year or so. I hasten to post this as the odds line guys dont like it, but this betting market as handles go down and real time information go up, is getting damn efficient, imo.
I agree.. Things are much tougher. For me in California, I have also to cope with the synthetics. I also agree, one cannot expect nearly as many mistakes as in years past. One has to look deeper, handicap better, and not miss the less frequent opportunities, as they are no longer falling plentifully in our laps..

On the 29th, I was alive in the pick 6.. It was not going to be a big score, but I was alive into the last leg.. I had 4 horses on a small ticket...And as one often does, I looked at who I might have missed...

OH MY GOD... Collato.. I threw him out because of his trainer and his seeming lack of speed.. OH MY GOD... It's all there right in front of my face and I didn't even look at him in this terrible field.. He is going to finish strong against these mutts! I just threw him out!

He powered home and paid $62. The pick 6 paid 15k.

Ability must be accompanied by discipline and a full effort. I didn't make that effort. If I lose this meet, it will be because I was lazy, not because of a worsening economy..

[Track Collector]

(a) Lesser "uneducated" money in the pools.
(b) Elimination of virtually all drugs which seemed to help the lesser talent to win once and a while at higher prices.
(c) Smaller average field sizes.

[MzDucat]

Another factor is this bizarre trend that if you work the windows you shouldn't bet. Does anybody really want to bet with a clerk who doesn't follow the action? I kid you not, I have to get the equipment changes off the tip card guy because some nimrod will be investigating me if they see me in front of the board and then behind the windows.

But after 25 years will I make a guy with a walker go outside to look at the equipment board or will I hand him the changes written down and wish him a good day with a smile?

The lousiest bosses in racing are the bozos who never blew their paycheck at least once at the track.

Former gamblers make the best investigators too. They have empathy for the public. The other guys just like the power. And some of them really suck at their jobs. One jerk questioned the head of NYRA's old money room because he saw him on camera reaching in his pocket and pulling out a ten to pay the kid who got him a sandwich and a coffee.

To that jerk: question it, stupid when he gets free stuff. Plus if he was betting, which he never did, he could give the bets to any one of his 50 mini dealers who would have been glad to become teflon by having him beholding.



But when tracks tell their clerks they'll be fired if they bet, guys you deserve to have clerks that suck.

My first Mutuel Directors rules:

Don't bet the tracks money.
Don't handicap at the window.
Don't shut anyone out getting your own.
Don't forget to call me if you get a good one.
Let me know who's rocking our tote so I can look him over.

Good rest and keep you Hughie. I was always grateful you were a blackjack dealer before you worked in racing.

Track Collector was right about the lesser "uneducated money" part. Alot of that money used to work the windows. Some guys took part time jobs and could care less if they lost their whole check. Their full time jobs were well paid and boring. The action at the track kept them sane.

When I cashed their paychecks and they got 5 bucks, they'd say, "Did you see how close I was to that big Pick 4 yesterday?" They lived to throw the money through the windows. No more.

Current tracks want people not interest in the betting. What a bunch of dullards. The gamblers made the game for all of us.

[Robert Fischer]

anecdotally, ive noticed a trend similar to the real estate markets. That there seems to be a bidding war at the bottom of the market.

Place and Show pool inefficiencies are getting hammered down by the computer players. Most overlays with 1 minute to go end up underlays by the time the race goes off. This seems to be happening more frequently recently.

If the parallel is true then there should be some prices to be had in more expensive markets. Unfortunately Pick4s and Trifectas don't show probable payouts before the race. Exactas are about the closest. I've tried to look in these pools without a whole lot of success thus far.

[lansdale]

anecdotally, ive noticed a trend similar to the real estate markets. That there seems to be a bidding war at the bottom of the market.

Place and Show pool inefficiencies are getting hammered down by the computer players. Most overlays with 1 minute to go end up underlays by the time the race goes off. This seems to be happening more frequently recently.

If the parallel is true then there should be some prices to be had in more expensive markets. Unfortunately Pick4s and Trifectas don't show probable payouts before the race. Exactas are about the closest. I've tried to look in these pools without a whole lot of success thus far.

Robert,

Thanks for your comments - I don't usually bet place and show but I have had to sit on my hands a great deal recently after checking exacta projections. BTW, Pick-3 will-pays are available in the States, although not Pick-4s, as far as I know. Are things different in UK?

Cheers,

lansdale

[Imriledup]

anecdotally, ive noticed a trend similar to the real estate markets. That there seems to be a bidding war at the bottom of the market.

Place and Show pool inefficiencies are getting hammered down by the computer players. Most overlays with 1 minute to go end up underlays by the time the race goes off. This seems to be happening more frequently recently.

If the parallel is true then there should be some prices to be had in more expensive markets. Unfortunately Pick4s and Trifectas don't show probable payouts before the race. Exactas are about the closest. I've tried to look in these pools without a whole lot of success thus far.

That's totally true. I'll look up at the place or show pools on heavy favorites on occasion very close to post time and they always seem to level out at the very last moment. back in the old days, they weren't able to do that. Now, its just a mouseclick away.

[lansdale]

I know this question is so vague and open-ended as to be almost useless, but I am very curious as to whether anyone else is experiencing a noticeable drop in the odds of their winners, or I'm just dealing with my own small-sample tundra.

For me this has been the case for about the last 6-8 weeks at both major and mid-level tracks - I check about 4-5 per day for plays. I've never before had quite had such a long run of the odds on so many of my picks being hammered down to exactly what I would have made them - therefore, of course, no play.
Since I'm usually betting only in the win and exacta pools, this kind of thing may affect me more than exotics players.

If this is more than an anomaly, the only rationale I can think of is that the weak economy may have taken a certain chunk of the discretionary money out of the pools. As a blackjack player, this is easier to see, since so many casinos are nearly empty, and as a friend observed, the only people still playing are pros and addicted gamblers. I'm curious if the same is true of horseracing. Grateful for any feedback.

Cheers,

lansdale


I hit a 21-1 shot in the 6th at WO today, my best hit in about six weeks. BTW, to clarify, the drought I was talking about in my first post was of winners at 7-1 or better, which I was hitting at slower than my usual rate of four a week. Let's hope it was only an anomaly and that the drought is over.

lansdale