A Gamblers Temperament.

[Cadillakin]

I brought this post over from another thread. Cratos tells how he wins and I respond below his quoting..... I think the subject is worthy of it's own thread....

I want to see how others here deal with the psychological issues of winning and losing that sometimes prevent the greatest of handicappers from succeeding.. Please tell us how you cope with gambling pressures... and what you do to increase your chances of winning consistently...

A very good post and my approach is very simple; and that is to be a very discipline gambler.

I do my handicapping before I go to the racetrack and decide on my bets for the day (usually 2-3) at win bets only of odds not less than 3-1.

If I lose, my comment to myself is “there is always another day.”

My discipline didn’t come easy nor did it come without a price. I spent many years betting exotics trying to hit the “big one” until one day at Saratoga a friend says to me: “Why not take the money that you are wagering on the exotics and bet it to win only?” I did and that was the start of me becoming a discipline gambler.

This game is about being a good handicapper and a even better gambler, but whichever you are; you must have discipline.
I use a very similar approach. My handicapping has always been significantly better than my gambling skills. Therefore, betting to win simplifies and streamlines my game. I don't force myself into exotics.

I use a modified flat bet approach, pressing my bets when the price is more generous than I expected... and keeping bets level when the pricing is "satisfactory".

Those are the choices that suit my gambling temperament. I'm very hard on myself when I lose.. Handicapping and betting to win minimizes many of the psychological issues and mistakes that I often encounter while playing exotics. When I lose 5 or 6 in a row...I purposely increase my wait.. It helps me immensely to sit and watch races .. In doing so, my perspective seems to freshen and the tension that losing creates, lessens. I watch without any compulsion to bet or recover losses. Then, when I jump back in, it's like a new day..and a fresh start.. My win percentage is VERY high on that first bet back.

That's how I cope.. That's how I win..

[fmolf]

i use a similar approach, very rarely betting anything other than win and exactas...i use meadows chart to determine when i have an overlaid exacta that i like....i never bet exactas when i have no opinion or value in the win pool....i only use the exacta to enhance my earnings using my win horse on top never in the second slot...win horse can be any overlay even if it is 7/5 ..i rarely bet at lower odds than this ..usually when odds are this low and i feel the horse is solid i will bet a little heavier on my exacta combos...i also got tired of losing my money on tri's and p3's and 4's so now i very very rarely ever play them.

[rwwupl]

When I have a bad day,which for all of us is often, I try to "turn the page" after blowing off a little steam. Don't let the hurt linger.

You can not take yesterdays baggage into today and expect to do well.

My Pal uses a form of yoga and meditation.

The hardest thing for me to do is after a big day to have a repeat the next day.

[Derbyman32]

From my experience with this excellent subject I have to agree completely about the discipline and mental part of the handicapping process. I believe that I also do a good job in the handicapping of the horses but i often fall short on the application of my betting and using the proper discipline. Even after close to 40 years of working on my game I can not completely overcome my this weakness. To be honest I still find myself wanting to chase looses and sometimes have to disconnect my internet access to give my a chance to level off my thinking ( that is hard to admit to in an open forum). I continue to try different approaches to the mental part of the game which can really be the most important factor. :blush:

[sjk]

I have confidence in what I do and losing does not bother me in the least.

This week I lost about 50 races in a row (this usually happens once a year) then after cashing a couple of small ones lost another 20 or 30 straight.
The last race I bet my horse closed from 15 back and was beat a nose in a lengthy photo at 28-1. Did not bother me in the least.

Losing is a necessary step on the way to winning. Bound to happen at times.

[LottaKash]

I have confidence in what I do and losing does not bother me in the least.

This week I lost about 50 races in a row (this usually happens once a year) then after cashing a couple of small ones lost another 20 or 30 straight.
The last race I bet my horse closed from 15 back and was beat a nose in a lengthy photo at 28-1. Did not bother me in the least.

Losing is a necessary step on the way to winning. Bound to happen at times.

Wow, after losing almost 70 to 80 races in a row, even at only once a year, well, I just don't know how I would handle that.....God bless you..cool you..:cool:

best,

[proximity]

I have confidence in what I do and losing does not bother me in the least.

This week I lost about 50 races in a row (this usually happens once a year) then after cashing a couple of small ones lost another 20 or 30 straight.
The last race I bet my horse closed from 15 back and was beat a nose in a lengthy photo at 28-1. Did not bother me in the least.

Losing is a necessary step on the way to winning. Bound to happen at times.

and a post like this is your way of reassuring us all that winning is "very much a reasonable hope." :D

[BombsAway Bob]

I have confidence in what I do and losing does not bother me in the least.
This week I lost about 50 races in a row (this usually happens once a year) then after cashing a couple of small ones lost another 20 or 30 straight.
The last race I bet my horse closed from 15 back and was beat a nose in a lengthy photo at 28-1. Did not bother me in the least.
Losing is a necessary step on the way to winning. Bound to happen at times.
In a Duck's 'Dictionary of phrases', they use..
"...LIKE WATER OFF A SJK's BACK!" :cool:

[Cadillakin]

From my experience with this excellent subject I have to agree completely about the discipline and mental part of the handicapping process. I believe that I also do a good job in the handicapping of the horses but i often fall short on the application of my betting and using the proper discipline. Even after close to 40 years of working on my game I can not completely overcome my this weakness. To be honest I still find myself wanting to chase looses and sometimes have to disconnect my internet access to give my a chance to level off my thinking ( that is hard to admit to in an open forum). I continue to try different approaches to the mental part of the game which can really be the most important factor. :blush:
Derbyman32, Thanks for your post.

I think we all have that problem of wanting to get out for the day. Winning bets on the last race is not always a good thing. It does reinforce our "losing" behavior.

What I do to combat that inclination is that I follow a fairly defined rule of having picked my horses in advance of the actual races. I rarely vary from that.. When I have completed the work of handicapping, I can recite the form of each and every horse in the race and why he/she won't win versus this field, without referring back to the Racing Form.. It is my opinion that handicapping DURING a race is not a winning method... at least for me.

Thus, I have a pretty good idea if a race or races are playable, going-in. Still, I allow myself the latitude to pass if the odds are not sufficient or if the horse(s) I have handicapped as playable do not look race-ready. Also, once in a while, I will perceive a notion that physically my horse looks overmatched. I don't often follow that perception, except when I focus on a foreign horse or youngster whose form is unclear to me, In those cases, I allow myself the opportunity to back out or change my bet..

Other than the exceptions above, I tend to stick to my plan where the betting odds seem sufficient. The odds board can and does stimulate us sometimes in ways that do not benefit. Invariably, when we are trying to "catch-up", we are scanning the odds for horses whose payoff matches or exceeds our losses on the day.. This is NOT a winning method!

I think all of us make a lot of mistakes. But for me, having a betting plan prior to post and sticking to it, helps me maintain the discipline necessary to win consistently..

[fmolf]

Derbyman32, Thanks for your post.

I think we all have that problem of wanting to get out for the day. Winning bets on the last race is not always a good thing. It does reinforce our "losing" behavior.

What I do to combat that inclination is that I follow a fairly defined rule of having picked my horses in advance of the actual races. I rarely vary from that.. When I have completed the work of handicapping, I can recite the form of each and every horse in the race and why he/she won't win versus this field, without referring back to the Racing Form.. It is my opinion that handicapping DURING a race is not a winning method... at least for me.

Thus, I have a pretty good idea if a race or races are playable, going-in. Still, I allow myself the latitude to pass if the odds are not sufficient or if the horse(s) I have handicapped as playable do not look race-ready. Also, once in a while, I will perceive a notion that physically my horse looks overmatched. I don't often follow that perception, except when I focus on a foreign horse or youngster whose form is unclear to me, In those cases, I allow myself the opportunity to back out or change my bet..

Other than the exceptions above, I tend to stick to my plan where the betting odds seem sufficient. The odds board can and does stimulate us sometimes in ways that do not benefit. Invariably, when we are trying to "catch-up", we are scanning the odds for horses whose payoff matches or exceeds our losses on the day.. This is NOT a winning method!

I think all of us make a lot of mistakes. But for me, having a betting plan prior to post and sticking to it, helps me maintain the discipline necessary to win consistently..
the worst feeling in the world is handicapping the winner the night before and betting the loser 1 minute before post because another horse looked better in the paddock or its odds were higher!

[toussaud]

I find that without a doubt when I hit huge losing strikes, I am doing something wrong in my process. usually I'm reaching.

I really can't explain it, but I have a good idea when I need to shut it down., cool down, go over the days picks figure out where you are screwing up at, etc.

I am aware that anything can happen in a certain race, there is no such thing as a sure thing, but there is a difference between a race playing like you thougth and it not coming together as you had hoped, and you just not being close race after race after race.


for me, although I'm the prototypical value player, I find it important that I play a few chalk horses who I like, if for anything just to keep morale up. nothing is better than hitting a race after you have lost 6 in a row, regardless of how much it pays. Thanks Zenyatta lol.

[markgoldie]

As I have been saying for many years now, there is a certain human temperament that translates well into betting horses and there is a temperament (or temperaments) that do not do well. The difference involves the ability to relax and to look at the largest possible picture at all times, vs. the tense, nervous, impatient and over-eager personality-type.
One of the best ways to identify the type of a person involves the way they "root" for winners that they have played. The intense screamers, in my experience, are near-universal losers. Those whose vital statistics barely budge during the running of a race are at least temperamentally equipped to be winners.

The problem is that emotionalism tends to make you alter your game-plan, often significantly. As someone suggested, to counter that, you can pre-decide your plan of action so that you don't alter it in the heat of the moment. The problem with that, of course, is that value is the holy grail of wagering and it ties your hands in the face of odds' information which only comes in during the running of the races. Also, it precludes adjustments which may be made relative to daily track biases, hot stables, hot jockies, etc. To me, there is a "vibe" or a "flow" to every card that I need to get into to be the most effective. So in this case, the cure might be worse than the disease.

Aside form extensive mental-training-zen-type-meditation-relaxation exercises, I've found that winning itself is the best cure for the panic syndrome. There's something about the firm knowledge that you can beat the game that enables you to relax and "let it come to you," rather than trying to make it happen all the time. I know this isn't imparting much useful information. It reminds me of the old Ray Charles song when he says:
"That old saying them that gots is them that gets,
Is somethin' I can't see.
'Cause you gotta have somethin' before you can get somethin',
How you get the first is still a mystery to me."

Maybe there is one little tip I can give, however. When you're losing, the psychological pressure builds. There's a "fight or flight" component to the moment. There's regret, even a little embarassment over perceived errors that have caused the losses. In some people, this can even unleash a self-destructive tendency where you subconsciously want to lose more just to prove that you're an unworthy idiot for thinking you can beat an unbeatable game. Here's the tip. When this happens, say to yourself: "All the losing is in the past. I'm starting out clean right now. I'm only going to judge my results from this moment forward. I'm starting with a completely clean slate. Now that my slate is clean, I will use all of my considerable abilities to win, because when my head is clear, I can see everything in the proper perspective. I only bet into what I know to be value and I know that value means staying away from over-bet favorites. In fact, the concept of ANY kind of value in favorites is an excuse made up by chalk players who refuse to see the errors of their ways. I never do that. You'll never hear me explaining how a 1-1 shot should really be 3-5. No. I wait for my spots and when I find them, I am amply rewarded over time. There's no hurry. When I'm calm and patient, it will all come, sooner or later."

Something like that. Good luck. Mark

[fmolf]

i always remember this little saying told me by an old racetracker at belmont when i was a young lad of 17 0r so...."remember kid a day betting the races is like 9 separate games forget what was and think about what is".....

[Cangamble]

When I watch a race at home, my wife has no clue whether I'm live onto a pick 4 that might pay 10,000 or if I have no bet on the race.

I too have a turn the page attitude. I never show it, but I get mad at myself, mad at jockeys, mad at racing secretaries for ruining my pick 3 or pick 4 chances, etc. But I'm mad for a minute tops. I get over it quickly.

I never root early, though when I used to spend time at the track, I may have rooted only when I knew I was cashing the odd time.

[Cadillakin]

As I have been saying for many years now, there is a certain human temperament that translates well into betting horses and there is a temperament (or temperaments) that do not do well. The difference involves the ability to relax and to look at the largest possible picture at all times, vs. the tense, nervous, impatient and over-eager personality-type.
One of the best ways to identify the type of a person involves the way they "root" for winners that they have played. The intense screamers, in my experience, are near-universal losers. Those whose vital statistics barely budge during the running of a race are at least temperamentally equipped to be winners.
Agreed.


The problem is that emotionalism tends to make you alter your game-plan, often significantly. As someone suggested, to counter that, you can pre-decide your plan of action so that you don't alter it in the heat of the moment. The problem with that, of course, is that value is the holy grail of wagering and it ties your hands in the face of odds' information which only comes in during the running of the races. Also, it precludes adjustments which may be made relative to daily track biases, hot stables, hot jockies, etc. To me, there is a "vibe" or a "flow" to every card that I need to get into to be the most effective. So in this case, the cure might be worse than the disease.
Recognizing bias in the midst of a race card, IMO, is a slippery slope. The only time I'm ever sure it exists is during an "off session." Or, when I see several subtle form reversals in consecutive races - within each respective field, such as speed horses that always quit carrying their speed much further than normal, or stretch runners who always come up short, rallying wide and pressing the lead earlier than expected, while concurrently, good front-runners are readily succumbing.

The announcers on TVG will often call a bias after a few results that surprised nobody. I'm with Frank Mirahmadi and others who say, in their opinion, bias is mostly overrated. For me, it's of limited value. I mostly perceive talk of it as shortcuts that moderate handicappers employ in attempting to find a winner.

Generally, the overall tendency for victory at varying distances should be pretty well known to the handicapper.. For me, undoing that "known data" amidst the racing card, and reversing or changing our handicapping after watching a few races does more harm than good. If Rafael Bejarano loses 9 in a row, and Tyler Baze wins 3 of the last 4, I'm still not going to move off Bejarano and favor Baze because he is "hot" if I like Bejarano's mount. As for the changing odds, I think of it more as chatter than reliable information that I need. Not that it is totally without value to watch money flow, but for the most part, one never knows if they're following the money of the sharp guys or the losers. I ignore it... The only thing that matters is my final price.. I've already set my line and made my selections.. The only questions then are; Will my runner appear fit and ready and does his odds match or exceed my line..

Finally, I'm aware of "the flow" as you put it.. I see it all the time.. But for me, it is better to stick with the mental processes that "flow" within the calm environment that I create for my work...

Good post, Mark

[Cadillakin]

i always remember this little saying told me by an old racetracker at belmont when i was a young lad of 17 0r so...."remember kid a day betting the races is like 9 separate games forget what was and think about what is".....
In that regard, at age 20 or so, I was already a pretty good handicapper... I had a friend about the same age and he too was good.. But this older man that we knew picked some incredible winners...

One day after he just pounced on a 25-1 shot.. I asked; "How do you pick those horses? He pointed at his form and said; It's all in here, kid!

Which to me meant, "Get out of your imagination and study the real data. Everything flows from that." I always remember that moment as the best handicapping advice I ever received.

[NJ Stinks]

When I'm going bad I put down my DRF and start handicapping the trotters. I find harness races an easier proposition to handicap than thoroughbreds and it usually helps me get my confidence back. Of course, at most harness tracks the pools are much smaller and the payoffs smaller too for the most part.

But it seems to work so that's what I do.

One thing I don't do is change my thoroughbred handicapping style. I'm big on playing DD's, Pick 3's, and Pick 4's. And normally, unless a horse is at least 4-1, I'm not betting anything in the win pool. I rarely bet over $30 on one race and have found that I get a lot more bang for my buck with multi-race wagers.

[dvlander]

I tend to gamble without outward emotion. That doesn't mean that I don't get fed up when I lose my fourth stretch duel in a row by a nose.

I don't think there is anything wrong with gambling emotion. However, when the gambling emotion begins to alter your wagering behavior, that's when you are in trouble. That's where most problem gamblers dig their hole, they begin making plays in an effort to cover prior losses. That clearly is gambling's version of suicidal behavior.

No matter how bad of a day you've had, remember famed sports gambler Lem Banker's quote, "They play the star-spangled banner every day." In other words, no matter how bad it's gone, stick to your formula and try it again another day.

Dale

[cmoore]

In that regard, at age 20 or so, I was already a pretty good handicapper... I had a friend about the same age and he too was good.. But this older man that we knew picked some incredible winners...

One day after he just pounced on a 25-1 shot.. I asked; "How do you pick those horses? He pointed at his form and said; It's all in here, kid!

Which to me meant, "Get out of your imagination and study the real data. Everything flows from that." I always remember that moment as the best handicapping advice I ever received.

That's an answer I don't think any one of us would of forgotten..

[MzDucat]

My husband sits so chilly on a score, I have to look at the guys sitting in his box to see if they won. Sometimes I even misread them. Then some old time clerk would come up and tell me he just had to call the vault for them.
I'd tell him thanks for the info, but don't let the big guy catch you talking about his bets or he won't come back to you.

Never thought of it as my score. You never know how some of the bets are divided up. He might even have put it in as a favor. And I never do ask.

The second it's official a gambler refocuses on the new race at hand.

The last score is now old news. Losers focus on that big win. Pros are kicking themselves because the 40 to 1 missed the show spot and would have given them $2,000 more.

Pros never gloat. It brings the hard luck stories over with their hand out.

[BUD]

I Learned from my sport exp. I never get high with the good times nor low with the bad--And there are more bad being a novice having some health Problems that directly affect the game..IE Tremors-Optic Nueritis--But that is all Bullshit--I focus and play the game--Best effen thing that could have happen to me

I lose I get very curious-Why? I have a big arse ego--So I go back-Why did I lose? Same with the win--I need to do that More with my wins--

For the great Cappers out there I tip my hat--I was Great in sports--Hit the zone--Not think just react--Here--Its all Cerebral---You lose that------

Man You good ones are great--This retired at 43 disabled bastard is getting better----Each day is awesome cause it brings us all a fresh set of puzzles--Man That is the best.

[Derbyman32]

Derbyman32, Thanks for your post.

I think we all have that problem of wanting to get out for the day. Winning bets on the last race is not always a good thing. It does reinforce our "losing" behavior.

What I do to combat that inclination is that I follow a fairly defined rule of having picked my horses in advance of the actual races. I rarely vary from that.. When I have completed the work of handicapping, I can recite the form of each and every horse in the race and why he/she won't win versus this field, without referring back to the Racing Form.. It is my opinion that handicapping DURING a race is not a winning method... at least for me.

Thus, I have a pretty good idea if a race or races are playable, going-in. Still, I allow myself the latitude to pass if the odds are not sufficient or if the horse(s) I have handicapped as playable do not look race-ready. Also, once in a while, I will perceive a notion that physically my horse looks overmatched. I don't often follow that perception, except when I focus on a foreign horse or youngster whose form is unclear to me, In those cases, I allow myself the opportunity to back out or change my bet..

Other than the exceptions above, I tend to stick to my plan where the betting odds seem sufficient. The odds board can and does stimulate us sometimes in ways that do not benefit. Invariably, when we are trying to "catch-up", we are scanning the odds for horses whose payoff matches or exceeds our losses on the day.. This is NOT a winning method!

I think all of us make a lot of mistakes. But for me, having a betting plan prior to post and sticking to it, helps me maintain the discipline necessary to win consistently..

Cadillakin, thank you for your reply to my post. I think that what you said about being well prepared has considerable merit. By doing the physical act of handicapping and keeping very good records I have overcome a lot of the desire "to chase" at the end of a the day. I used to blame it on my it on my youth lol, but the youth part is long gone away. :)

[raybo]

For me, keeping records, tracking how I am doing, long term, is the key to keeping positive. One who knows what he does long term develops confidence in his/her method(s).

In my case, knowing that I only need to hit 8% of my wagers, long term, to produce a nice profit is very reassuring.

[strapper]

A horseplayer's temperament is something we must all develop. If you don't learn from your mistakes you'll never profit.

[Oaklawn]

One of the best ways to identify the type of a person involves the way they "root" for winners that they have played. The intense screamers, in my experience, are near-universal losers. Those whose vital statistics barely budge during the running of a race are at least temperamentally equipped to be winners

I am living proof of this! :D

[fmolf]

I am living proof of this! :D
:lol: you and me both......a lot of professional gamblers here and i love their input and the way they share their knowledge and ideas...but i am a recreational player who views this right now as a hobby that i can make a few bucks at!I am not afraid to lose or to make big wagers(big for my situation...its all relative!)and do not sulk when i lose or gloat when i winn but come on fellas rootin, hootin and hollerin your horse home is the other half of the fun of picking winners(besides the trip to the cashier!)keep rooting all you extroverts and count me amongst the vocal!

[Track Phantom]

Interesting topic. Betting win only is certainly one way to keep your losses (and wins) to a minimum. Betting win only could produce a yearly profit but, in my opinion only, not enough of a profit to make the time and investment in the game worthwhile to me. In other words, the lure of bigger money is attractive to me, not a daily grind. For others, it may be just the opposite. So, the first question you have to ask yourself is...what are you trying to get out of horse racing (at least financially speaking)? If your answer is lower investment but thrill of winning based on your handicapping and value selection, then win betting works fine. If your answer is your losing tolerant is high (as well as your bankroll) and want a more substantial score opportunity, you might have to bet differently.

Another side point, one thing I've noticed for myself is, I usually make the most money on races which I know the winner (even if that winner is 1-9). Races that are wide open in which I am looking for a value play are races in which I have a very low ROI. Sounds simple but lots of people say you can't make money on a low priced horse. I feel just the opposite.

[fmolf]

Interesting topic. Betting win only is certainly one way to keep your losses (and wins) to a minimum. Betting win only could produce a yearly profit but, in my opinion only, not enough of a profit to make the time and investment in the game worthwhile to me. In other words, the lure of bigger money is attractive to me, not a daily grind. For others, it may be just the opposite. So, the first question you have to ask yourself is...what are you trying to get out of horse racing (at least financially speaking)? If your answer is lower investment but thrill of winning based on your handicapping and value selection, then win betting works fine. If your answer is your losing tolerant is high (as well as your bankroll) and want a more substantial score opportunity, you might have to bet differently.

Another side point, one thing I've noticed for myself is, I usually make the most money on races which I know the winner (even if that winner is 1-9). Races that are wide open in which I am looking for a value play are races in which I have a very low ROI. Sounds simple but lots of people say you can't make money on a low priced horse. I feel just the opposite.i stated in another thread that i like to use a solid 6/5 or even money shot ..even odds on is some instances as the key in maybe three overlaid exacta bets or in a large field of ten or more underneath with all ....

[Track Phantom]

i stated in another thread that i like to use a solid 6/5 or even money shot ..even odds on is some instances as the key in maybe three overlaid exacta bets or in a large field of ten or more underneath with all ....

Not bad. In my opinion, when you really feel there is a sure winner, it makes it a bit easier to handicap pace, etc. In addition, most people think the next best horse (i.e. the horse with the next best chance at winning) is the likely runner up in the exacta. Often, very often, the 2nd or 3rd choices will expend early energy to try and "win" the race while plodders will chunk up to fill out the late exotics.

Probably my favorite angle, and one that has made me quite a bit of money, is when there is a huge favorite and one other (likely a long price) who was well beaten coming out of the same race as the favorite. As a key race player, these are when I usually lay out a large straight exacta.