Sartin Pace Handicapping - Harness Style

[jeebus1083]

I developed a manual input Sartin velocity calculator/profiler in Excel for use with Trackmaster's new Pace Past Performances. It is very simple to use, and requires no math on the part of the user. Since the Trackmaster Pace PPs have the horse's individual fractions broken down into quarterly segments as well as their front half, middle half, and back half times, and since they have a variant listed, all the user has to do is select the horse's paceline race, and enter in the horse's front half time as the 1st fraction (combined 1st and 2nd quarters), the 3/4 mile time as 2nd fraction, the final quarter time as 3rd fraction, and the variant next to the odds. If you want to get technical with shippers, you can figure out using the discontinued USTA Speed Ratings what the speed rating time is for the shipper's track, and what the speed rating is for today's track, and add or subtract that into the variant. Excel will tally everything, and will provide the user with Sartin-style pace velocity ratings for 1Fr, 2Fr, and 3Fr, as well as the Average Pace, Early Pace, Sustained Pace, and %Energy Distribution.

Those who use Sartin ratings know the importance of keeping a profile, and this program will do that for you. Select the winner of the race, click the appropriate button, and it will send the winner's ranking data to another spreadsheet. As you continue to handicap at a certain track, you will notice trends in the rankings and the energy distribution demands for that track. I don't know of anyone or anything that has attempted to assess pace in harness through feet traveled per second, but it's very effective.

If PA allows, I would like to post my spreadsheets (the main spreadsheet to calculate, and the modeler sheet) for those who are interested. If you are serious about the trotters, it will open your eyes.

[BetHorses!]

I use to do it. I had much success at the Meadowlands with it. Balmoral was good as well. I recall Yonkers being a waste of time. It was labor intensive for me as I typed in the fractions from Sports Eye LOL but it was good.

Still have my spreadsheet though.....

[justin13892002]

I have a Velocity Spreadsheet for Sartin too lol. Works just about everyplace. Basically you need to use pattern recognition while using it though.


Good idea to post. Would love to compare our spreadsheets.

[Tom]

Doc actually had a program for harness called Trotamation. ( Not the same thing as the Taco Bell warning!) ;)

[46zilzal]

The BEST way to understand the racing game, PERIOD

Form cycles, turf, maidens, stretch outs, cut backs, etc etc.

I have used Trotomation, with limited success, but just have not put the time into it. Many of my friends swear by it, but the more I learn about standardbreds, the less the HORSE is the mainstay as the driver has much more to do with a move than the horse.

[justin13892002]

Doc actually had a program for harness called Trotamation. ( Not the same thing as the Taco Bell warning!) ;)


I have long been a student of Howard and Jim B. and never heard of Trotamation??? Any ideas where to find it?

[Tom]

The BEST way to understand the racing game, PERIOD

Form cycles, turf, maidens, stretch outs, cut backs, etc etc.

I have used Trotomation, with limited success, but just have not put the time into it. Many of my friends swear by it, but the more I learn about standardbreds, the less the HORSE is the mainstay as the driver has much more to do with a move than the horse.

Not too many turf courses for the trotters. Even fewer cut backs. :D

[justin13892002]

Not too many turf courses for the trotters. Even fewer cut backs. :D

And how many stretch outs have you seen in Harness??? Other than track length?

[justin13892002]

Not too many turf courses for the trotters. Even fewer cut backs. :D

Tom,

Any idea on where to find Trotamation?

[46zilzal]

Tom,

Any idea on where to find Trotamation?
In the top drawer of this desk of course

[justin13892002]

In the top drawer of this desk of course


? :confused: :confused:

[Tom]

Other than Zilly's desk, I don't think it is available anymore, unless you see it on eBay.

[46zilzal]

? :confused: :confused:
This one is the one yes?

[jeebus1083]

With the Trackmaster Pace PPs, the labor intensive part is not really there. Takes a few minutes per race.

Of course, one has to consider post position, driver, and possible position when using the figs. Picture the race in your head and work from there.

[jeebus1083]

The key to using Sartin ratings for harness is A) Early Energy distribution, and B) the variant/USTA ratings. The energy demands are higher on the 1/2 mile and 5/8 mile ovals than they are on the 7/8 and 1 mile ovals. Of course when the line is adjusted by the variant and (if the horse is a shipper) the seconds faster or slower than tonight's track, it brings the figures closer to reality.

With that said, a claiming horse on the low end of %E may be a good bet at Meadowlands, but not such a good bet at Yonkers. With 4 turns and shorter straights, a horse cannot get the same sustained momentum as the long straights and the two turns. Of course, class is king in any type of racing, and this may not apply so much in the higher classes of horsedom.


I use to do it. I had much success at the Meadowlands with it. Balmoral was good as well. I recall Yonkers being a waste of time. It was labor intensive for me as I typed in the fractions from Sports Eye LOL but it was good.

Still have my spreadsheet though.....

[LottaKash]

I developed a manual input Sartin velocity calculator/profiler in Excel for use with Trackmaster's new Pace Past Performances. It is very simple to use, and requires no math on the part of the user.

If PA allows, I would like to post my spreadsheets (the main spreadsheet to calculate, and the modeler sheet) for those who are interested. If you are serious about the trotters, it will open your eyes.

Jeebus, I too, am a great fan and player of the trots, and that is where most (not all) of my horse racing passion lies... And, I admire your determination and guts in trying to find a more successful model in your search for winners....

A few months ago, I subscribed to the "New" Pace-Performances as well, and I am happy to say, that as of lately, I am really getting a good handle on the use of them.....I have melded them into my own time-worn handicapping, and now "New-good" things are beginning to happen to my decent-bottom line, as of lately....As a result of those new numbers, I have been re-vitalized to a great degree, and each day I eagerly anticipate some new revelation to occur, meaning that I have some darn-good, rootin'-tootin' handicapping angles that have always had much merit in my view of racing, but I've found that through the proper perspective of pace (new numbers), much more meaning and understanding has entered into my safe old handicapping realm since the infusion of these new numbers into it.....I use the numbers as a casual means for eliminations, as well as, Red/Green-lights on my contenders....

Honestly, I have always been too lazy to make any signifcant effort in the way of manually, saving and crunching numbers, and I believe it has always been holding me back from ascending to a higher plane of handicapping....But, I did do that for a good while and it wore me out...Since that time, I returned to a Paper & Pencil style (electronically, of course) and as a result, I still have manged to do quite well, despite the lack of these new and wonderful numbers....Now, with these new numbers, it was like a gift from above, and at a glance, by just reading the form, with the supplied new numbers, a windfall of joy has been dumped into my lap.....My current wish is for "Trackmaster" to turn these bad-boys into an .EXE-file....Now that would be something !!!!...Still, unless, or until they do that, I am in "Handicapping-Heaven", all the same....Combining these numbers with my tried and true way of doing things, well, it's like cleaning a window with 40-years of dirt on it.....Wow...:jump:

I personally, am very interested in your new adventure, and I sure would like to keep abreast of your progress, and when the time comes, of your implementation and the results of your results......

Go Jeebus, :jump: :jump: :jump:

best,

[jeebus1083]

I asked CJ if he could post the spreadsheets. I'll find out soon, I guess. Once they get posted (if they are allowed to be posted), I'll post instructions to those interested. It's simple to use, but even simple things can be difficult for some. I know because it's happened to me!

I hope the harness enthusiasts here enjoy!

[LottaKash]

Jeebus, I hope that is possible, looking forward to it....THX...

best,

[BetHorses!]

The key to using Sartin ratings for harness is A) Early Energy distribution, and B) the variant/USTA ratings. The energy demands are higher on the 1/2 mile and 5/8 mile ovals than they are on the 7/8 and 1 mile ovals. Of course when the line is adjusted by the variant and (if the horse is a shipper) the seconds faster or slower than tonight's track, it brings the figures closer to reality.

With that said, a claiming horse on the low end of %E may be a good bet at Meadowlands, but not such a good bet at Yonkers. With 4 turns and shorter straights, a horse cannot get the same sustained momentum as the long straights and the two turns. Of course, class is king in any type of racing, and this may not apply so much in the higher classes of horsedom.


I used a formula of only EP, Avg Pace, Sustained Pace and Factor X.
I like making an oddsline but was never comfortable with it. For me, the line makes the betting decisions easy.

[cj]

Click here to download (http://www.pacefigures.com/SartinForHarness.zip)

[jeebus1083]

Thanks, CJ.

[jeebus1083]

Instructions for Use:

1.) Download the .zip file that CJ uploaded to this thread, and after you have saved it to the computer, unzip the .zip file content (a folder named "Sartin For Harness") to the C: drive. This folder MUST be saved in the C: drive or else the macros that control the Harness Model WILL NOT WORK! However, the actual "Sartin For Harness" spreadsheet can be moved anywhere on your computer. I keep mine on the desktop for easy access.

2.) Open the Sartin For Harness spreadsheet. There are separate tabs for each race, so that you can do the entire card without having to input data, and then delete and do the next race. If you choose to create a working decision model, you need to keep each race separate until you run the data into the model (more on that later).

3.) In the approrpriate green boxes, enter for each race that you do, the Track Code (Meadowlands is M, Yonkers is YR, Saratoga is Stga, etc.) and the date of the race. Don't change the race number.

4.) Next, is the manual data entry. The first 5 columns are PN (Pgm#), 1Fr, 2Fr, 3Fr and Variant. The PN column can be edited if necessary (in races with coupled entries), but generally, there is no need. The 1Fr is an individual horse's 1st half mile, 2Fr is the horse's 3rd quarter, and 3Fr is the horse's final quarter. If you use Trackmaster Pace PPs, this is the easy part, as all these fractions are broken down for you and readily available for manual entry. For those not familiar with the format of the Pace PPs, check out the Trackmaster website samples. If you use Harness Eye's Enhanced PPs (only offered for select tracks), it's still simple, aside from the fact that you will have to add the first two quarters to get your horse's half mile time. If you use any other PPs, it becomes time-consuming, and you will have to make adjustments to the fractions based on beaten lengths (since USTA does not time in hundredths, the yardstick of 1/5th of a second = 1 length has to suffice, so break the lead fractions into quarters, and then multiply the beaten lengths at each call by .20 and add to the fractional time. Remember: 29-1 is 29.20, 29-2 is 29.40, etc., since 1/5th = .20 seconds. When entering data manually, entering 29.1 for 29-1 happens by accident more than you think!

5.) If you have Trackmaster or Harness Eye PPs, there is a track variant available. Enter that as you see it. If your program does not have a variant, it can be skipped, but you will miss out on important adjustments to the time. If evaluating a shipper, and you can find the last edition of the USTA Speed Ratings through Google, you may also want to make an adjustment on top of the variant based on the difference between the shipper's track and tonight's track. If the variant is -7 and the difference between the paceline track and tonight's track is +10 (10/5ths of a second, or 2 seconds slow), add +10 to the -7 for a +3 variant. This is not necessary, but it allows for you to adjust the fractions for today's track.

6.) Once you have everything entered, you will have a complete summary of the race. After the race is run, you may want to create a decision model. In the final column where it says "Win Pick", select the race winner's line by filling in the field with an "x". It will automatically input the horse's rankings for 1Fr, 2Fr, 3Fr, AP, EP, and SP as well as other relevant information. Press the approrpriate button to send to the model and the model will copy and save automatically that race winner's information.

7.) Click the next race tab to move onto the next race!

Paceline Selection:
DON'T USE QUALIFIERS!
DON'T USE LINES WHERE THE HORSE BROKE (unless the horse does it every race!)
DON'T USE FAIR RACES (except Delaware, Ohio)

When dealing with these, USE COMMON SENSE! The "Q"s are not real races and will not represent a true race. Use the last race before the Qualifier if yo can, otherwise, don't rate the horse and use common sense. If a horse is a hopeless breaker, use discretion on whether you want to use a paceline or not. Sometimes, it's not worth it. Races at fairs have plenty of incomplete information and are often unreliable. If all of a horse's races are at a fair, don't rate the horse for velocity and make a common sense judgment call.

I would rather not select a paceline if I don't trust the information than use one at all and have it be misleading.

Any other questions, PM me or respond!

[jeebus1083]

BTW, the download is an Excel 2007 file. If you use Excel 2003 or earlier, you may need to download a plug-in direct from Microsoft to even be able to see this file.

[Tom]

Not too many turf courses for the trotters. Even fewer cut backs. :D

OK, make a liar our of me......Meadowlands is carding a TURF race tonight!!!:eek:

[Maxspa]

All,
I remember talking with Howard Sartin during a seminar break in the 90's.
While conversing with Howard, I mentioned that I had trained and owned harness horses. Howard stated, "That in his opinion they were easier to handicap." One reason was that harness horse types ex: speed, closers were more predictable and that post position helped to breakdown how the race would be run!
Just a bit of Sartin wisdom.
Maxspa

[LottaKash]

BTW, the download is an Excel 2007 file. If you use Excel 2003 or earlier, you may need to download a plug-in direct from Microsoft to even be able to see this file.

FWIW, it loads and opens with no problems in "Open-Office".org......:jump:

best,

[traveler]

I have the original Sartin Phase III Harness program if somebody wants a copy(if I can legally give it to someone,1988 Copyright when it opens up). DOS based,it runs on XP. Haven't used it in over 15 years.

[jeebus1083]

Bumping. Does anyone still have my spreadsheet? I lost mine going through my hard drive and if someone still has a copy, I would like to get it back.

[David Siegel]

TrackMaster Pace Ratings are included in the TrackMaster Plus (for harness racing) files. So if one really wants to use them (I of course think they are great), you don't have to manually enter anything. You will have to chose your pace line if you are using such a methodology, or write software to do so, but the data is there (in every harness plus file, there is a dbf file called runlinhp and this file has fields called pacefigq1, pacefigq2, pacefigq3, pacefigq4. Individuals have written software that reads in these harness plus files and then use their personalized output for wagering. TrackMaster also generally supports efforts for people that want to commercial such software.

Hope that addresses the manual entry discussion some.

[traynor]

TrackMaster Pace Ratings are included in the TrackMaster Plus (for harness racing) files. So if one really wants to use them (I of course think they are great), you don't have to manually enter anything. You will have to chose your pace line if you are using such a methodology, or write software to do so, but the data is there (in every harness plus file, there is a dbf file called runlinhp and this file has fields called pacefigq1, pacefigq2, pacefigq3, pacefigq4. Individuals have written software that reads in these harness plus files and then use their personalized output for wagering. TrackMaster also generally supports efforts for people that want to commercial such software.

Hope that addresses the manual entry discussion some.

What is the cost of the Trackmaster Plus data files?

[David Siegel]

Of course there is a lot more to the files than the Pace Ratings and they also include any of our Platinum PDF products.

Pay as you go - $5.00 per card
20 cards/month - $49.95 ($2 per card if you go over 20)
Unlimited/month - $149.95 (every US and Canadian track)

There are discounts for longer commitments.

Pricing can be found at:

http://www.trackmaster.com/cgi-bin/pricing.cgi?hmp

[traynor]

Of course there is a lot more to the files than the Pace Ratings and they also include any of our Platinum PDF products.

Pay as you go - $5.00 per card
20 cards/month - $49.95 ($2 per card if you go over 20)
Unlimited/month - $149.95 (every US and Canadian track)

There are discounts for longer commitments.

Pricing can be found at:

http://www.trackmaster.com/cgi-bin/pricing.cgi?hmp

I think a basic harness app (with manual entry) is likely to encourage a wider interest in wagering on harness races--and more subscribers to Platinum PDF products.