Pace pressure gauges

[markgoldie]

Okay gentlemen (and ladies). Since my last post relative to a different sort of metric has seemed to have devolved into a back-and-forth about honesty in racing, thought I'd throw something new out there for us to chew over.

My sense of the history of thoroughbred handicapping is that the near-obsession with measuring and using early speed is a relatively new phenomenon. Yes, going back to the days of Ainsle and Taulbot, there was a sense of the importance of speed, but nothing near what we see today. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, I think the real explosion in speed-related research post dates original Beyer and Ragozin.

At any rate, there seem to be a number of ways to quantify early speed. The best known of these are: (1) Pace-speed pars, (2) Pace-speed figs; and (3) Speed points. Pace-speed pars are nothing more than the average pace time for the given class. As such, they are a rudimentary way to determine if the pace speed of a given race was fast, slow, or normal. Pace-speed figs are a step forward since they incorporate a track variant. Also, some advanced pace speed figs employ foot/per/second calculations to adjust for inaccuracies in lengthages at varying distances. Pace points as espoused by Quirin, Brohamer, Giles, Klein, and others are a way of identifying the propensity of horses to seek the front in their races.

Interestingly, many advanced handicappers believe that well-constructed speed points are a more accurate way of determining who will be on or near the pace in a given race than even a close comparison of pace figs.

My observation has been that this assertion, that speed points beat pace-speed figs seems to be correct. On the other hand, I have never been in possession of high-quality pace figs, so my observation may be uninformed.

First off, are there opinions out there about this question that are backed with more first-hand knowledge and/or data? It would be interesting to find out.

Next, we come to what's known as "race profiling." In race profiling, we stop anyone in a car who is not an apparent WASP. Oh. No. Excuse me. That's the other type of race profiling. In this type of race profiling, we look at the number of speed horses and the number of speed points they are assigned and make a decision as to whether or not the race is likely to be won by a front runner or a more come-from-behind sort.

Giles explains a speed-pressure gauge in which every horse with a speed number of 5 Quirin points or over is added up and any race in which there are 21 or more such points, the race profile begins to turn toward closing types. He also incorporates what he calls a pace velocity gauge in which each horse with an "E" racing style. When that number reaches 3 (that is there are at least 3 E-type horses in the race), a speed duel becomes likely, such that an off-the pace type is very likely to win even over the so-called speed survivor.

All this has a solid basis in reasoning and while every race is an individual event in which anything can and will happen, over the long term, we would expect these theories to hold true.

My question is, does anyone out there have any research regarding race-pace profiling in terms of pace-pressure matchups and the pace profile of the race winner? Also, does anyone have figures for S or P-type horses in the money or on gimmick-wagering tickets based on a race-pace profile?

Thanks in advance to our research experts out there. Mark

[rrbauer]

In addition to a number of pace-experts who post at this board and who have computer applications that can address some of your questions, I would suggest that you contact Jim Cramer at HDW. He has studied and understands as much as anyone that I'm familar with about race profiling.

[sjk]

I have never used the speed point method with my only rationale being that anything easily done with pencil and paper would be a suboptimal use of my computing power and I am better off with something that uses lots of calculation and involves information that is not on the printed page.

I have had good luck making pace projections (never bothered to reduce them to figures since they are only used internally in my program). It is by no means clear how to best make pace figures and it is easy to make really bad ones if you don't use some sort of sectional variants so if you are thinking of evaluating the use of pace figures you might want to try them from as many sources as possible before reaching a conclusion.

[BIG HIT]

Maybe some guy's here can chime in.Who use jim the hat bradshaw method.I have tried most all the people in your above thread and think bradshaw give a much more explanation beside's number's.
You might want two check it out over at pace cap website.

[cj]

I find that accurate running styles and a good set of pace figures are the best method.

As for the accurate running styles, I think there are two the handicapper should consider. If evaluating the chances of a horse in a race, you need to know how he runs when he runs well and is that going to happen today.

If you are evaluating the likely pace of the race, you need to evaluate how the horses have been running lately.

[markgoldie]

Thanks for the replies. Sjk: I understand completely what you are saying regarding the simplicity of the pace-point concept. But if we look at it logically, it makes a lot of sense. Pace speed as measured by sheer velocity and adjusted however subtley would be completely appropriate if we were talking about racing robots. But we're not. We're talking about live animals with their own intelligence and quirks.

Because of this, it is highly probable that many, if not most, t-breds run the pace portion of their race in some sort of "positional" comfort zone. For some, that might mean as fast and as hard as possible unless and until they gain the lead. For others, it might mean as fast as possible until reaching what might be nominally called "at or near" the front. For others yet it might mean as fast as possible so as to clearly avoid dirt "kickback" being thrown in your face due to trailing other horses.

Once the comfort zone is achieved, it is probable that t-breds, in the main, will not run as hard as they possibly can. Why? Well, for one thing, many are a tad lazy like their human counterparts (we only work as hard as we have to), but also because that's what they are taught, meaning they know there is a "rest" period so to speak before the jockey will pull out his stick and begin whacking away for maximum effort. During this rest period, the horse may actually feel a tightening of the lines as a form of mild restraint once in a while.

The point is, the horse who runs to a 4f pace marker as fast as he possibly can each and every race (with total disregard to the competition) exists, but is a rare specimen. Which means what?

Well, for one thing, it means that no matter how sophisticated your running velocity, track-speed, and wind direction & velocity calculations are, they are NOT measuring the complete and total ability of the horse to gain a particular position in a race.

This is why, from an intuitive standpoint at least, I can understand the validity of pace points over and above all other measures of pace speed. Why? Because it measures the PROPENSITY of an animal to race in a particular position at the pace call.

Now. Are there instances where the animal will find himself incapable of achieving his preferred positioning due to the superior abilities of the competition? Of course. But measurements of raw pace speed among his rivals is a tricky way to predict such an out-positioning. Well, you might say, why not look at a number of the horse's past races and extrapolate a "maximum" pace ability, such figure to be derived by instances where the horse was unable to achieve his preferred positioning because he lacked the requisite pace speed. Great idea. Only there are flies in this ointment as well.

First, horses do not achieve alert breaks in every start, nor do jockies always get into the proper "break rhythm" with the horse. And second, and more importantly, the form of the horse will vary over a number of races such that extrapolating a maximum pace velocity depends on the attendant overall form of the moment.

The bottom line is simply this: Pace points, simplistic though they are, may very well be the best way to predict where a horse will be at the pace call of a race.

Mark

[46zilzal]

I find that accurate running styles and a good set of pace figures are the best method.

As for the accurate running styles, I think there are two the handicapper should consider. If evaluating the chances of a horse in a race, you need to know how he runs when he runs well and is that going to happen today.

If you are evaluating the likely pace of the race, you need to evaluate how the horses have been running lately.
Succinctly accurate

[markgoldie]

A vote for current form combined with pace figs and brevity. Duly noted. Mark

[sjk]

Mark,

I would disagree with the whole idea that a horse's running position has much to do with what goes through the horse's head. Most horses are at least somewhat ratable and if they are sent to the lead it is because the trainer and jockey feel like using his speed early gives him the best chance to win.

The idea of measuring a horse's speed potential is to evaluate the likelihood that he will able to make the lead while running a couple of ticks slower than all out or while running only briefly at top speed. If this is the case his chances to win go up significantly.

Have you done some research comparing the two methods?

[Greyfox]

Mark,

I would disagree with the whole idea that a horse's running position has much to do with what goes through the horse's head. Most horses are at least somewhat ratable and if they are sent to the lead it is because the trainer and jockey feel like using his speed early gives him the best chance to win.



I think it was Chris McCarron who once said:
"The first two furlongs belong to the horse."
He was implying that the jockey hasn't got a lot of say in that area.
Was he right? I couldn't tell you, I've never ridden a thoroughbred.
I'll take him at his word until someone here convincingly argues otherwise.

Personally, I think that speed points are of value in predicting who will try to set the pace.
Pace figures are of value in who will either set or overtake the pace.

[markgoldie]

Sjk;

Yes, but you may be missing the point. If it is the case that running on or near the lead in the race is a decision of the trainer and/or jockey since the horse can be rated, then speed points clearly indicate the past intent relative to the animal better than pace-velocity figs would. This is true because speed points simply attempt to quantify where the horse is generally positioned in his races. On the other hand, speed-velocity measurements, such as pace figs, DEPEND completely on the notion that speed horse go as fast as they possibly can to the pace call. Otherwise all we're measuring here is however fast the jockey felt like going on a particular day. So I agree. Whether it is a pace comfort zone or the rating of the jockey, pace points measure where the horse "normally" winds up at a pace-call point, and you and I are saying the same thing: That this is more important than sheer velocity which assumes that the horse is going as fast as possible.
As far as a research project to see which method more accurately predicts the horse on top at the pace call, no. I haven't done such research. Maybe someone out there has? Mark

[sjk]

Could probably do myself if someone would tell me how the speed points are done.

I have made a lot of money using pace projections so I know that works.

[Cratos]

My question is, does anyone out there have any research regarding race-pace profiling in terms of pace-pressure matchups and the pace profile of the race winner? Also, does anyone have figures for S or P-type horses in the money or on gimmick-wagering tickets based on a race-pace profile?

Thanks in advance to our research experts out there. Mark


In reading through this thread several posters has made valuable contributions to your question and I will attempt to add to them.

However, I believe that CJ’s post #5 was the best when you look at pace from a practical point of view because if you don’t assess current form you are just “blowing in the wind” so to speak.

Additionally, long before Andrew Beyer’s Speed Figures and Ray Taulbot’s Pace Calculator there was Phil Bull’s timefigures which measure the performance of horses in terms of time and was first published in the thirties (I think); and this method inextricably links time and form together.

But to assess pace whether it is a practical application or a theoretical application you should have a speed curve for the distance of the race because after all speed by definition is a distance-time ratio and each point on a speed curve is a pace point or a speed point; and the sum of the points determines the curve.

However, if you are incline to play around with a theoretical pace curve I would suggest starting with the frequency curve wrt origin which has the Cartesian equation y = √(2n) exp(-Xsqrt/2) because in general it maps the typical pace shape of a horserace. That is it will show that pace is faster early in the race with the speed of the pace diminishing as the distance become longer.

If one has the time and resources, a pace curve can be built for every distance and class for a given racetrack. This is a laborious job and somewhat time consuming because of the way the data is present in the result charts. However once the curves are built and inserted into a predictive model; the payoff is that you have a good addition to your handicapping tool box

[justaboxofrain]

forget about the math if cc lopez is in the race.

[Tom]

Cratos, how would the data need to be formatted to use?

[fmolf]

speed points are very helpful especially with need to lead types....these are horses who when they do not get the lead they fold....also pace figs are very helpful in races with lots of early speed to determine if one speed horse might get an uncontested lead...i like to look at what a horses late pace is when he is in a race where there is a fast pace .....it is thru this late/early pace ratio that will determine which horses can last to the wire.. i believe quirin in his study found that the final speed is in proportion to the early speed when one goes up the other goes down

[Tom]

Found this shareware to do the equations....Horse Racing Predictor

http://www.pcworld.com/downloads/file/fid,66969-order,3-page,91
/reviews.html

[markgoldie]

Here's some information on calculating and using Quirin pace points.

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Quirin%20Speed%20Points.pdf

[fmolf]

Here's some information on calculating and using Quirin pace points.

http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/Quirin%20Speed%20Points.pdf
interesting i have been using the % method advocated by quirin and the 3/20 is very similar and much easier to calculate....i have found that speed duels generally materialize when their are at least two 8,s and a seven...generally the 8's are horses that when the lose the lead or do not get it quit..this opens the doors for a presser/closer to come down the lane to win!i also generally eliminate any horses with one or two speed points when their are five or more horses with five plus

[sjk]

Since I offered above I ran 6,000 dirt races from 2/14 to 5/15 with no fts to see how my top 1st call speed horse fared at the first call:

1ST POS pct
1 45.39%
2 21.80%
3 13.59%
4 7.88%
5 5.15%
6 2.89%
7 1.52%
8 0.92%
9 0.46%
10 0.25%
11 0.10%
12 0.05%

Not really directly comparable to the results in the paper cited they did not give data for highest point earner (which must usually be <8 since only 3% of starters get 8).

[Greyfox]

Cratos, how would the data need to be formatted to use?

Tom

If you can truly understand Cratos suggestion,

"I would suggest starting with the frequency curve wrt origin which has the Cartesian equation y = √(2n) exp(-Xsqrt/2) because in general it maps the typical pace shape of a horserace."

and I said if, please phone the White House and tell them how to fix Afghanistan, GM, and Health Care.

Alternatively, translate Cratos' suggestion, and I don't doubt that this man is onto something, into a new book entitled
"Pace Shapes for Dummies."

The y = √(2n) exp(-Xsqrt/2) is Greek to me except obviously a curve is involved somehow. You seem to know what to do with the data if he gives it to you with your question re: formatting.

[Cratos]

Tom

If you can truly understand Cratos suggestion,

"I would suggest starting with the frequency curve wrt origin which has the Cartesian equation y = √(2n) exp(-Xsqrt/2) because in general it maps the typical pace shape of a horserace."

and I said if, please phone the White House and tell them how to fix Afghanistan, GM, and Health Care.

Alternatively, translate Cratos' suggestion, and I don't doubt that this man is onto something, into a new book entitled
"Pace Shapes for Dummies."

The y = √(2n) exp(-Xsqrt/2) is Greek to me except obviously a curve is involved somehow. You seem to know what to do with the data if he gives it to you with your question re: formatting.


Greyfox, let’s put the math aside and visualize what is being asked. What is being asked in my opinion to is define the shape of the race with respect to distance and time and that is a “pace curve.”

I might add that if you only use the final time of a race, it would be only be a single point and you would have to create a “curve” (e.g. a pace scenario) backwards to reflect that final time.

Therefore the pace of a race is a curve which shows how the race was run and any point on the curve is how the race was run at any given time.

A good example of pace handicapping is the recent Preakness. Putting aside all of the hullabaloo about Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird; this race was a bonanza to the astute pace handicapper who played the exacta.

Why? The race had two horses (Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird) that had pronounce running styles with one being a front-runner and the other being a closer and they went off as the 1-3 choices in the race wagering pool; and paid a generous $39.20 in the exacta.

Please don’t accuse me of “red boarding” or being post race brilliant after the race because I am not; and I stated before the race that I didn’t think that Rachel Alexandra would win the Preakness. Also I am not an exotic player of any kind; for me it is win only wagering.

However the Preakness is a race with a good example to study and understand pace handicapping and how pace, “the curve” affects the final time.

[Cratos]

Tom

If you can truly understand Cratos suggestion,

"I would suggest starting with the frequency curve wrt origin which has the Cartesian equation y = √(2n) exp(-Xsqrt/2) because in general it maps the typical pace shape of a horserace."

and I said if, please phone the White House and tell them how to fix Afghanistan, GM, and Health Care.

Alternatively, translate Cratos' suggestion, and I don't doubt that this man is onto something, into a new book entitled
"Pace Shapes for Dummies."

The y = √(2n) exp(-Xsqrt/2) is Greek to me except obviously a curve is involved somehow. You seem to know what to do with the data if he gives it to you with your question re: formatting.


Greyfox, let’s put the math aside and visualize what is being asked. What is being asked in my opinion is to define the shape of the race with respect to distance and time and that definition is a “pace curve.”

I might add that if you only use the final time of a race, it would be only be a single point and you would have to create a “curve” (e.g. a pace scenario) backwards to reflect that final time.

Therefore the pace of a race is a curve which shows how the race was run and any point on the curve is how the race was run at any given time.

A good example of pace handicapping is the recent Preakness. Putting aside all of the hullabaloo about Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird; this race was a bonanza to the astute pace handicapper who played the exacta.

Why? The race had two horses (Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird) that had pronounce running styles with one being a front-runner and the other being a closer and they went off as the 1-3 choices in the race wagering pool; and paid a generous $39.20 in the exacta.

Please don’t accuse me of “red boarding” or being post race brilliant after the race because I am not; and I stated before the race that I didn’t think that Rachel Alexandra would win the Preakness. Also I am not an exotic player of any kind; for me it is win only wagering.

However the Preakness is a race with a good example to study and understand pace handicapping and how pace, “the curve” affects the final time.

[Tom]

You got my curiosity because the idea of pace being curves is exactly what K Gen - my all-time favorite program was showing in its readouts.
I am going to investigate the software I found.

[Greyfox]

Greyfox, let’s put the math aside and visualize what is being asked. .

Thank you Cratos. :ThmbUp:

[fmolf]

You got my curiosity because the idea of pace being curves is exactly what K Gen - my all-time favorite program was showing in its readouts.
I am going to investigate the software I found.
is this the same as the race shape ideas put forth that are in the moss pace figures(slow early /fast late) in addition to his pace numbers....i use bris so i have to discern this from their race shape numbers ...+2...-3...means 2 lenghts faster than par for the leader and 3 lengths slower late than the par for the leaders pace....are we talking about the same thing here?

[Light]

My question is, does anyone out there have any research regarding race-pace profiling in terms of pace-pressure matchups and the pace profile of the race winner? Also, does anyone have figures for S or P-type horses in the money or on gimmick-wagering tickets based on a race-pace profile?

Thanks in advance to our research experts out there. Mark

I recieve Pizzola's E Mail "rants" where he talks alot about using Black Magic to find heavily pressured races.But alot of times, a race where the pressure is supposed to be there doesn't materialize and someone gets a boat trip. Apparently Pizzola does win big too from these kinds of races,but I've yet to see one not redboarded,but he does present copies of the tickets in his "rants". The redboarding is irrelevant to me. I dont really care if Pizzola makes money or not. If I can learn something from him or anybody,is all I care about.The point is even an accomplished,experienced player and author of books and software like Pizzola is fooled on pace alot of the time. The other point is to make up for your losses when you do get the pace right. And that is more in the money management department rather than figuring out pace.

[fmolf]

I recieve Pizzola's E Mail "rants" where he talks alot about using Black Magic to find heavily pressured races.But alot of times, a race where the pressure is supposed to be there doesn't materialize and someone gets a boat trip. Apparently Pizzola does win big too from these kinds of races,but I've yet to see one not redboarded,but he does present copies of the tickets in his "rants". The redboarding is irrelevant to me. I dont really care if Pizzola makes money or not. If I can learn something from him or anybody,is all I care about.The point is even an accomplished,experienced player and author of books and software like Pizzola is fooled on pace alot of the time. The other point is to make up for your losses when you do get the pace right. And that is more in the money management department rather than figuring out pace.running style for me and pace scenarios tie hand in hand with a horses fitness becaus you can have three 7 rated e runners and still have one go wire to wire if he has superior form and conditioning ....i think the conditioning factor is why pace duels do not materialize a lot of the time when the numbers say they should

[Cratos]

is this the same as the race shape ideas put forth that are in the moss pace figures(slow early /fast late) in addition to his pace numbers....i use bris so i have to discern this from their race shape numbers ...+2...-3...means 2 lenghts faster than par for the leader and 3 lengths slower late than the par for the leaders pace....are we talking about the same thing here?

Every race has a shape because every race has a pace and this didn’t come from Randy Moss; it came from basis geometry.

If you take any race at any distance and plot the race using whatever increments you desire (e.g. 1/8M, 1/4M, or points of call) and graph the race with time on one axis and distance on the other axis, you would end up with a curve that depicts the shape of the race with respect to time and distance. In a word you would’ve graphed the “pace” of the race.

[cj]

Every race has a shape because every race has a pace and this didn’t come from Randy Moss; it came from basis geometry.

If you take any race at any distance and plot the race using whatever increments you desire (e.g. 1/8M, 1/4M, or points of call) and graph the race with time on one axis and distance on the other axis, you would end up with a curve that depicts the shape of the race with respect to time and distance. In a word you would’ve graphed the “pace” of the race.

Of course every race has a shape. I find it best to compare the shape of every horse to the "ideal" shape to win a race. Of course, that ideal shape varies according to track, distance, age of horses, and class of horses.

[fmolf]

Of course every race has a shape. I find it best to compare the shape of every horse to the "ideal" shape to win a race. Of course, that ideal shape varies according to track, distance, age of horses, and class of horses.
what your basically stating is that every horse has a pace that they can withstand and still have energy left to finish......and if that pace is too fast for all the horses in the race a late runner or presser who can overcome his early disadvantage wins the race?

[Cratos]

Of course every race has a shape. I find it best to compare the shape of every horse to the "ideal" shape to win a race. Of course, that ideal shape varies according to track, distance, age of horses, and class of horses.

An excellent handicapping tip

[cj]

what your basically stating is that every horse has a pace that they can withstand and still have energy left to finish......and if that pace is too fast for all the horses in the race a late runner or presser who can overcome his early disadvantage wins the race?

I was talking more in terms of evaluating past performances.

[fmolf]

I was talking more in terms of evaluating past performances.
so you try to determine what todays pace shape will be and match that to a horses pace shape from his pp's?