Using Prime Power as an Elimination Tool

[coach_lowe]

Over the last year or so I've been using Bris's Prime Power rating as a tool to identify contenders in non-conditioned claiming races. I'm interested in knowing if anyone has done any extensive studies into this rating and its usefulness in different types of races. I've found some great overlays by spotting horses that are within 6 pts of the top rated horse, especially when the top rated horse is questionable. Presently, I'm looking at the aforementioned method in combination with some, but not all, of William Scott's form qualifications. Seems to be working out well.

[Onion Monster]

Coach, I'd stick with dirt races. Prime Power doesn't handle turf/poly specialists too well. A turf sprinter with bad form on dirt, will be underrated by Prime Power figures.

In races, such as the ones you're describing, I think using Prime Power would work quite well to divine contenders and potential value plays. Just look out for those horses who have raced on different surfaces.

[fmolf]

Over the last year or so I've been using Bris's Prime Power rating as a tool to identify contenders in non-conditioned claiming races. I'm interested in knowing if anyone has done any extensive studies into this rating and its usefulness in different types of races. I've found some great overlays by spotting horses that are within 6 pts of the top rated horse, especially when the top rated horse is questionable. Presently, I'm looking at the aforementioned method in combination with some, but not all, of William Scott's form qualifications. Seems to be working out well.
i have been using scotts form standards for years now..... i have modified the recency rules up to 40 days and relaxed his lost lengths in the stretch rule up to three lengths.....i do not discount any e type horse that was within one length at the pace call and lost ground....his ideas are excellent and hold water to this day "total victory at the track" is a must read if you have not already read it.

[DeanT]

I use Prime Power in my Jcapper stuff for distance races, turf and dirt. For 2009, impact values in my poly database (WOX, SAX, HOL, TP, DMR and KEE) showed some real promise.

[CBedo]

I've actually been using it lately in an opposite manner. I've been trying to find easy ways to identify negative class drops, and have had some promising results using prime power. I'm basically looking for horses who were competitive in their last race, drop in class, and are standouts as measured by prime power. I'm finding lots of low priced losers.

[fmolf]

I've actually been using it lately in an opposite manner. I've been trying to find easy ways to identify negative class drops, and have had some promising results using prime power. I'm basically looking for horses who were competitive in their last race, drop in class, and are standouts as measured by prime power. I'm finding lots of low priced losers.
are these horses the post time favorites?....because they advertise that horses first in prime power that are not the favorite lose more than their share of races

[ryesteve]

they advertise that horses first in prime power that are not the favorite lose more than their share of racesIs that really what they advertise? That's not really an endorsement of their ratings. It'd make a whole lot more sense if they claimed that favorites that aren't first in prime power lose more than their share.

[CBedo]

are these horses the post time favorites?....because they advertise that horses first in prime power that are not the favorite lose more than their share of races
The horses that I'm looking at are false/vulnerable favorites that have big prime power advantage over the rest of the field. I've been trying to find a way to define a "negative class drop," and am experimenting with ways of using prime power possibly.

[JustRalph]

I use Prime Power in my Jcapper stuff for distance races, turf and dirt. For 2009, impact values in my poly database (WOX, SAX, HOL, TP, DMR and KEE) showed some real promise.

hmmm..............in my combined databases.....which is really all I use now

I find the results negligible. I might have to conjure up a poly database

[fmolf]

Is that really what they advertise? That's not really an endorsement of their ratings. It'd make a whole lot more sense if they claimed that favorites that aren't first in prime power lose more than their share.you are right ... i had it backwards...old age creeping up :D
i confused myself.....

[fmolf]

favorites not on top in prime power win less than their fair share in comparison to all favorites.....a 3 point edge wins 39% of the time an the win % goes up as the edge in prime power goes up

[InFront]

The claims what BRIS/TSN makes with their Power ratings are off as far as point edges and win% goes. Once you test them against a huge database their true %s are shown whether by point edge, favorites or not.

[fmolf]

The claims what BRIS/TSN makes with their Power ratings are off as far as point edges and win% goes. Once you test them against a huge database their true %s are shown whether by point edge, favorites or not.
i am not quite sure what you mean by this could you please elaborate?are you saying that the win %'s they give in their page about using prime power are not accurate?...if not what does your research show?

[coach_lowe]

CBedo,

You bring up a very interesting concept. I've always thought that the negative class droppers were very easy to spot by simply looking at the Ultimate Race Summary. A very basic premise: If the ACL is way above the average for the rest of the field and HAS the speed figures as well, then something is amiss. The only thing I would add to that is that you have to be careful of connections that aren't afraid to lose a horse, especially owners(Maggi Moss, Robert Bone, Calabrese, etc...).

[coach_lowe]

If anybody has the Bris PP's, look at tonight's 5th & 6th races. I was able to be on both winners from simply starting with Prime Power. A $21 winner in the 5th and a $14 winner in the 6th.

In the 5th, #4 Moody Coach was only 4.8 pts from the top rated horse. His last out was competitive finishing 4 lengths behind the winner at the same level 18 days ago. In addition, he had the highest back speed figure in the field by 4 pts! So definitely an overlay at 9/1.

In the 6th, #6 Speakster was 4.5 points behind the top rated horse. He had the highest speed figure last out just 8 days ago coming out of the highest rated race for any of the horse's last outs. 6/1 was a gift!

Those are just two examples, and of course there are losing streaks, but I find it to be an easy way to spot value.

[coach_lowe]

This is insane. Three overlays in a row. In the 7th, #2 Cheer's Echo wins at 5/1. 5.3 pts behind the underlaid Max's Song, improved in last earning a competitive figure in a very similar race and returns in 8 days for solid connections. The only drawback to this one was the back speed. But as I mentioned earlier, Max's Song was not a contener IMO. That only left the #6 Pick The Fowers who almost got up in time. 5/1 was very acceptable.

[CBedo]

CBedo,

You bring up a very interesting concept. I've always thought that the negative class droppers were very easy to spot by simply looking at the Ultimate Race Summary. A very basic premise: If the ACL is way above the average for the rest of the field and HAS the speed figures as well, then something is amiss. The only thing I would add to that is that you have to be careful of connections that aren't afraid to lose a horse, especially owners(Maggi Moss, Robert Bone, Calabrese, etc...).
It seems to me that I can look at the Ultimate PPs w/ Summary and easily spot a negative class drop, but I've had a harder time defining it so the computer can pick it out (and unfortunately, the Class Rating and ACL figures aren't in the data files (at least not the cheap ones).

I also totally agree that you have to know which trainers have the "drop off a good race" in their repertoire, or you will be playing against some legit favorites. Some of the trainers only make the move near the end of some of the meets too, so you have to know "when" they make the move.

[coach_lowe]

Race 10 Mountaineer. I played two horses to win, the #5 Great Facts and the #9 Deputy Director. The latter won at 8/1 and paid $18.80.

Again, I used Prime Power as an aid to eliminate non-contenders and search for value with the remaining horses. Deputy Director was the 2nd rated horse just 3.7 pts behind a vulnerable favorite. He exited a tougher race 25 days ago, had the highest ACL in the field, and figured to be rolling late on a day when speed was obviously not holding.

This game is so much like golf. One day everything clicks and you can't wait until tomorrow, then tomorrow comes and you wonder what in the hell you are are doing.

[fmolf]

If anybody has the Bris PP's, look at tonight's 5th & 6th races. I was able to be on both winners from simply starting with Prime Power. A $21 winner in the 5th and a $14 winner in the 6th.

In the 5th, #4 Moody Coach was only 4.8 pts from the top rated horse. His last out was competitive finishing 4 lengths behind the winner at the same level 18 days ago. In addition, he had the highest back speed figure in the field by 4 pts! So definitely an overlay at 9/1.

In the 6th, #6 Speakster was 4.5 points behind the top rated horse. He had the highest speed figure last out just 8 days ago coming out of the highest rated race for any of the horse's last outs. 6/1 was a gift!

Those are just two examples, and of course there are losing streaks, but I find it to be an easy way to spot value.
now your on to something... if you can just find a way to spot the vulnerable favorites....i have had some nice winners betting the top rated class horse on the bris summary average or last especially when the favorite was not the top rated prime horse......

[dav4463]

Has anyone ever done a study on Prime Power rank and their value in exactas based on what combo comes in? For example: the 2nd ranked over the 3rd, 4th and 5th ranked.....or 3rd ranked on top of 2nd, 4th, and 5th....or how about top ranked over 5th, 6th, and 7th ranked......looking for value in certain combinations. I'm sure the top ranked with the 2nd or 3rd pick shows a loss in exactas. There should be some combos that pop up frequently at a price though.

[ryesteve]

I'm sure the top ranked with the 2nd or 3rd pick shows a loss in exactas. There should be some combos that pop up frequently at a price though.
All combinations (with a reasonable sample size) show a loss. Those with the top rank on top really aren't overbet that badly. Going off '08 results, except for rank3 over rank1, rank1 over the next three ranks are the least unprofitable combinations.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have never used the BRIS data but I certainly do contender selection. I'd like to offer a suggestion that I have found valid.

1. Rank the horses by this factor.

2. Consider the top 1/2 field + 1 horse as contenders.

Thus, in an 8-horse field, consider the top 5 horses.

In a 7-horse field, where the correct contenders would be 4.5 horses, allow the 5th horse in if it is "close" to the 4th horse. (Whatever YOU deem to be called "close" works, but be consistent.)


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[DeanT]

hmmm..............in my combined databases.....which is really all I use now

I find the results negligible. I might have to conjure up a poly database
Hey Ralph,

I have not done a ton of work on it in all situations, but when poly in routes has a bit of a closing bias it tends to work fairly good.

Woodbine last year in routes it was doing well.

By: Prime Power Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 28.40 674.00 1.0421 107 337 .3175 2.5908
2 64.40 670.00 1.0961 77 335 .2299 1.8756
3 2.50 668.00 1.0037 58 334 .1737 1.4170

[acorn54]

after spending a heck of alot of time using my database with commercially available info which includes the prime power rating i have never found any combination of factors commercially available to the general public that over the long term show a positive r.o.i.

[Light]

If anybody has the Bris PP's, look at tonight's 5th & 6th races. I was able to be on both winners from simply starting with Prime Power. A $21 winner in the 5th and a $14 winner in the 6th.

In the 5th, #4 Moody Coach was only 4.8 pts from the top rated horse. His last out was competitive finishing 4 lengths behind the winner at the same level 18 days ago. In addition, he had the highest back speed figure in the field by 4 pts! So definitely an overlay at 9/1.

In the 6th, #6 Speakster was 4.5 points behind the top rated horse. He had the highest speed figure last out just 8 days ago coming out of the highest rated race for any of the horse's last outs. 6/1 was a gift!

Those are just two examples, and of course there are losing streaks, but I find it to be an easy way to spot value.

I've boldened 2 of your sentences above to point out that the prime power(IMO),only works in conjuction with at least one other positive factor, speed being a major consideration. I would argue that horses like those above would do as well,probably better, without a high PP number, as opposed to horses who had just had a high PP number but nothing else to back it up.

I've been doing some studies of horses who go from sprints to routes and routes to sprints. Prime power was not a significant factor in eliminating horses as contenders. In both cases I had to use horses with a PP rank up to 6th rank and in sprints to routes I had to consider the 7th rank PP if he had a high enough rank in two other handicapping categories.Still that did not cover all the winners but tilted the scale significantly for a favorable win percentage and profit using horses with a PP less than 7th rank and a loss and low win percentage for those with a PP greater than 6th rank. My guess as to why the cut off for contenders would be 6th or 7th is that most races dont have full fields and if they did the cutoff would probably be greater.Certainly,I did find the number of winners decreased correspondingly with a greater PP rank.But PP seems irrelevant as a profit maker and as a stand alone factor fails even worse.

[fmolf]

I've boldened 2 of your sentences above to point out that the prime power(IMO),only works in conjuction with at least one other positive factor, speed being a major consideration. I would argue that horses like those above would do as well,probably better, without a high PP number, as opposed to horses who had just had a high PP number but nothing else to back it up.

I've been doing some studies of horses who go from sprints to routes and routes to sprints. Prime power was not a significant factor in eliminating horses as contenders. In both cases I had to use horses with a PP rank up to 6th rank and in sprints to routes I had to consider the 7th rank PP if he had a high enough rank in two other handicapping categories.Still that did not cover all the winners but tilted the scale significantly for a favorable win percentage and profit using horses with a PP less than 7th rank and a loss and low win percentage for those with a PP greater than 6th rank. My guess as to why the cut off for contenders would be 6th or 7th is that most races dont have full fields and if they did the cutoff would probably be greater.Certainly,I did find the number of winners decreased correspondingly with a greater PP rank.But PP seems irrelevant as a profit maker and as a stand alone factor fails even worse.being computer illiterate i do not have the database or the time to undertake a massive study ,but it seems to me that a horses rank in each category should not matter as much as how far numerically he is behind the leader in that category?

[ryesteve]

Woodbine last year in routes it was doing well.

By: Prime Power Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 28.40 674.00 1.0421 107 337 .3175 2.5908
2 64.40 670.00 1.0961 77 335 .2299 1.8756
3 2.50 668.00 1.0037 58 334 .1737 1.4170
Before anyone gets too excited, if you were betting the top 3 ranks in Woodbine routes this year, you'd be getting completely destroyed.

[ryesteve]

being computer illiterate i do not have the database or the time to undertake a massive study ,but it seems to me that a horses rank in each category should not matter as much as how far numerically he is behind the leader in that category?You need to consider both. A lower rank at an equivalent gap suggests a more contentious scenario. Eg, those ranked 2nd, 3 points from the top will win more often than those ranked 6th, 3 points from the top.

[DeanT]

Before anyone gets too excited, if you were betting the top 3 ranks in Woodbine routes this year, you'd be getting completely destroyed.
Woodbine is running very weird this year. Inside being dead seems to be throwing all metrics off.

[ryesteve]

Woodbine is running very weird this yearDefinitely. Nothing is working as well for me so far this year.

[dav4463]

All combinations (with a reasonable sample size) show a loss. Those with the top rank on top really aren't overbet that badly. Going off '08 results, except for rank3 over rank1, rank1 over the next three ranks are the least unprofitable combinations.

How many races would constitute a reasonable sample size if I happen to check combos using another means of selection?

[coach_lowe]

after spending a heck of alot of time using my database with commercially available info which includes the prime power rating i have never found any combination of factors commercially available to the general public that over the long term show a positive r.o.i.


No doubt that you are correct. I simply use Prime Power as a starting point for separating contenders and non-contenders. I then look for reasons why a horse can't win. If a find no legitimate reasons for a poor performance in today's contest(and believe me, they are scrutinized), I then consult the tote board. If I perceive value, I play.

[ryesteve]

How many races would constitute a reasonable sample size if I happen to check combos using another means of selection?Honestly, I can't give you a number, because even if I was looking at 1000 exacta plays that showed a profit, I wouldn't necessarily say that was reliable if there was one huge hit that otherwise would have made it very unprofitable. You also have to look at things in context. For example, I no longer have the numbers in front of me, but I believe that with the prime power combinations, rank 10 over rank 1 was profitable... but because rank 9 over rank 1 was terrible, and rank 11 over rank 1 was totally dismal, I would completely discount the rank 10/rank 1 finding as just noise.

[Light]

being computer illiterate i do not have the database or the time to undertake a massive study ,but it seems to me that a horses rank in each category should not matter as much as how far numerically he is behind the leader in that category?

With respect to PP,the average number of points behind the top PP horse of those that won was 5.7. This corresponds to my finding of including all horses up to the 6th ranked PP. Because approxametly the same number of horses who were ranked up to 6th in PP won as the number of horses who were within 6 points of the top PP horse.But because there is a wider fluctuation between the top PP horse and the rest of the field using actual points,the use of rank is more moderate and less likely to fool oneself.

[cmoore]

I think the prime power is base upon a horses last 3 starts..So a troubled race, bad post position, distance or surface the horse didn't like can also fudge the numbers. It's probably more accurate for older and classier horses that are much more consistent. A par prime power would be ideal..

[Oaklawn]

With respect to PP,the average number of points behind the top PP horse of those that won was 5.7. This corresponds to my finding of including all horses up to the 6th ranked PP. Because approxametly the same number of horses who were ranked up to 6th in PP won as the number of horses who were within 6 points of the top PP horse.But because there is a wider fluctuation between the top PP horse and the rest of the field using actual points,the use of rank is more moderate and less likely to fool oneself.

This may have been answered and I'm no keen enough to tell, but regarding the PP number, does the #2 ranked horse win more (% wise) than the #3, than the #4, etc?

[ryesteve]

This may have been answered and I'm no keen enough to tell, but regarding the PP number, does the #2 ranked horse win more (% wise) than the #3, than the #4, etc?Yes

[Bettowin]

I don't have a database to find out how prime power ranked horses finish but it seems the top 3 ranked runners fill out the exacta on a very regular basis.

It would be interesting to find out if one bet the trifecta based on prime power rankings such as:

1 with 23 with 234 and

23 with 1 with 234


How it would turn out? It seems there are a lot of races where the 2 thru 4 ranked horses end up at decent odds.

[Light]

Looking at my last 2 years of results from the Aqu Inner dirt track meet,I handicapped 656 races. 462 were won by the top 3 PP horses in rank. Investment betting the top 3 in all those races blindly was $3936. Return was $3582.


On the other hand using the top 3 Bris speed based horses by rank (based on picking one suitable pace line),the return was $3854.

So even though the top 3 Bris PP horses win an astonishing 70% of the races,you lose money and can do better using the top 3 speed based horses in a race,which had about the same number of winners and winning percentage. But the negative ROI was less.

[Oaklawn]

Looking at my last 2 years of results from the Aqu Inner dirt track meet,I handicapped 656 races. 462 were won by the top 3 PP horses in rank. Investment betting the top 3 in all those races blindly was $3936. Return was $3582.


On the other hand using the top 3 Bris speed based horses by rank (based on picking one suitable pace line),the return was $3854.

So even though the top 3 Bris PP horses win an astonishing 70% of the races,you lose money and can do better using the top 3 speed based horses in a race,which had about the same number of winners and winning percentage. But the negative ROI was less.

Do you mean the average racing speed of the top 3 or best speed ever or what? Also, can you explain what you mean by picking one suitable pace line. Sorry, I'm slow.

[Bettowin]

Looking at my last 2 years of results from the Aqu Inner dirt track meet,I handicapped 656 races. 462 were won by the top 3 PP horses in rank. Investment betting the top 3 in all those races blindly was $3936. Return was $3582.


On the other hand using the top 3 Bris speed based horses by rank (based on picking one suitable pace line),the return was $3854.

So even though the top 3 Bris PP horses win an astonishing 70% of the races,you lose money and can do better using the top 3 speed based horses in a race,which had about the same number of winners and winning percentage. But the negative ROI was less.


Good info. I am not familiar enough with Aqueduct to know about how many horses are in those fields? 7-10 would be my guess but I am not sure.

[Light]

Do you mean the average racing speed of the top 3 or best speed ever or what? Also, can you explain what you mean by picking one suitable pace line. Sorry, I'm slow.

I look at the horse's PP's and decide which paceline is the most appropriate for today's race. I use homegrown software.When I run my software,it brings up each horse individually and asks me which paceline I want to use (i.E. one back,two back etc.) I only pick one paceline. I don't believe in averaging. It goes through the whole card. Then the program gets the Bris speed fig for the paceline I selected. It puts out a text file which I import into Excel and sort to get the top 3 speed horses.

[Light]

Good info. I am not familiar enough with Aqueduct to know about how many horses are in those fields? 7-10 would be my guess but I am not sure.

That's probably a good guess on the number of horses per race. I dont track the number of horses in a field but probably should. However I dont include in studies or calculations races where there are less than 5 horses in a race due to scratches,lack of entries or a race with several first time starters where the remaining horses with data are less than 5.

[fmolf]

Looking at my last 2 years of results from the Aqu Inner dirt track meet,I handicapped 656 races. 462 were won by the top 3 PP horses in rank. Investment betting the top 3 in all those races blindly was $3936. Return was $3582.


On the other hand using the top 3 Bris speed based horses by rank (based on picking one suitable pace line),the return was $3854.

So even though the top 3 Bris PP horses win an astonishing 70% of the races,you lose money and can do better using the top 3 speed based horses in a race,which had about the same number of winners and winning percentage. But the negative ROI was less.
maybe you should be doing research on the other 194 winners to uncover some longshot prospects?.....because now we are back to when to bet when not to bet?the prime is a useful number no matter how and why you use it.but it still boils down to when to bet when not to bet!

[cmoore]

maybe you should be doing research on the other 194 winners to uncover some longshot prospects?.....because now we are back to when to bet when not to bet?the prime is a useful number no matter how and why you use it.but it still boils down to when to bet when not to bet!

We all know that any single number by itself won't get you a positive ROI over the long haul..I'm sure these database guys can punch in some odd minimums along with prime power rankings and try to come up with something..I ignore the prime power altogether..I used to look for angles all the time..Came up with nothing..

[hdcper]

Below is a breakdown of all primepower picks by rank for 2008 and 2009 (thru 5/26):

2008 output:





query start: 5/28/2009 12:04:45 PM
query end: 5/28/2009 12:14:12 PM
elapsed time: 567 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\DB\AADATABASE2008\pL_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 357474.50 353561.20 352653.80
Bet -468896.00-468896.00-468896.00
Gain -111421.50-115334.80-116242.20

Wins 28754 57162 84298
Plays 234448 234448 234448
PCT .1226 .2438 .3596

ROI 0.7624 0.7540 0.7521
Avg Mut 12.43 6.19 4.18


By: Prime Power Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -8473.80 58132.00 0.8542 8944 29066 .3077 2.5090
2 -8749.00 58212.00 0.8497 5881 29106 .2021 1.6475
3 -10971.40 58284.00 0.8118 4274 29142 .1467 1.1958
4 -12502.40 58908.00 0.7878 3230 29454 .1097 0.8941
5 -12203.70 57706.00 0.7885 2422 28853 .0839 0.6844
6 -13191.50 53796.00 0.7548 1706 26898 .0634 0.5171
7 -14481.00 44436.00 0.6741 1049 22218 .0472 0.3850
8 -11047.50 32844.00 0.6636 618 16422 .0376 0.3068
9 -8634.60 21930.00 0.6063 324 10965 .0295 0.2409
10 -5953.80 13930.00 0.5726 186 6965 .0267 0.2177
11 -2872.40 6780.00 0.5763 82 3390 .0242 0.1972
12 -1785.20 3274.00 0.4547 32 1637 .0195 0.1594
13 -405.30 472.00 0.1413 4 236 .0169 0.1382
14 -137.90 180.00 0.2339 2 90 .0222 0.1812
15 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
16 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
17 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
18 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
19 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 -186.80 1600.00 0.8832 530 800 .6625
0.50 1.00 -1582.90 10086.00 0.8431 2467 5043 .4892
1.00 1.50 -2744.80 16000.00 0.8284 3013 8000 .3766
1.50 2.00 -2917.10 19058.00 0.8469 2992 9529 .3140
2.00 2.50 -4053.60 21082.00 0.8077 2665 10541 .2528
2.50 3.00 -3834.90 21718.00 0.8234 2419 10859 .2228
3.00 3.50 -3833.10 20050.00 0.8088 1942 10025 .1937
3.50 4.00 -3856.60 18678.00 0.7935 1584 9339 .1696
4.00 4.50 -3719.90 17128.00 0.7828 1296 8564 .1513
4.50 5.00 -2775.70 15342.00 0.8191 1105 7671 .1440
5.00 5.50 -2795.10 14084.00 0.8015 914 7042 .1298
5.50 6.00 -2910.60 12776.00 0.7722 740 6388 .1158
6.00 6.50 -1840.60 11766.00 0.8436 691 5883 .1175
6.50 7.00 -2022.10 11320.00 0.8214 606 5660 .1071
7.00 7.50 -1907.10 10248.00 0.8139 509 5124 .0993
7.50 8.00 -1493.70 9710.00 0.8462 472 4855 .0972
8.00 8.50 -2463.70 8998.00 0.7262 356 4499 .0791
8.50 9.00 -1114.10 8682.00 0.8717 392 4341 .0903
9.00 9999.00 -65369.10 220570.00 0.7036 4061 110285 .0368



Ending BankRoll: $39.30
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $589.50
Low BankRoll: $39.30
Bet Percentage: 0.0250
Max Bet: 500.00




2009 output:





query start: 5/28/2009 12:30:12 PM
query end: 5/28/2009 12:33:35 PM
elapsed time: 203 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\DB\BBBDATABASE2009\pL_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 131541.50 131388.00 131453.30
Bet -175874.00-175874.00-175874.00
Gain -44332.50 -44486.00 -44420.70

Wins 10816 21556 31724
Plays 87937 87937 87937
PCT .1230 .2451 .3608

ROI 0.7479 0.7471 0.7474
Avg Mut 12.16 6.10 4.14


By: Prime Power Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -3158.80 21912.00 0.8558 3443 10956 .3143 2.5550
2 -2663.30 21726.00 0.8774 2294 10863 .2112 1.7169
3 -4841.30 21890.00 0.7788 1592 10945 .1455 1.1826
4 -5568.70 21802.00 0.7446 1125 10901 .1032 0.8391
5 -5486.10 21760.00 0.7479 836 10880 .0768 0.6247
6 -4948.60 20212.00 0.7552 659 10106 .0652 0.5302
7 -5630.70 16622.00 0.6613 380 8311 .0457 0.3717
8 -3948.90 12394.00 0.6814 246 6197 .0397 0.3227
9 -3817.40 8338.00 0.5422 118 4169 .0283 0.2301
10 -2476.90 5330.00 0.5353 74 2665 .0278 0.2258
11 -988.80 2636.00 0.6249 35 1318 .0266 0.2159
12 -788.00 1130.00 0.3027 12 565 .0212 0.1727
13 -82.20 86.00 0.0442 1 43 .0233 0.1891
14 -26.00 26.00 0.0000 0 13 .0000 0.0000
15 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
16 101.20 2.00 51.6000 1 1 1.0000 8.1303
17 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
18 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 -112.70 774.00 0.8544 250 387 .6460
0.50 1.00 -639.40 4256.00 0.8498 1048 2128 .4925
1.00 1.50 -1044.60 5914.00 0.8234 1106 2957 .3740
1.50 2.00 -882.00 6890.00 0.8720 1116 3445 .3239
2.00 2.50 -1540.80 7890.00 0.8047 993 3945 .2517
2.50 3.00 -1425.40 8144.00 0.8250 914 4072 .2245
3.00 3.50 -1237.20 7598.00 0.8372 758 3799 .1995
3.50 4.00 -1440.90 7026.00 0.7949 596 3513 .1697
4.00 4.50 -1430.20 6180.00 0.7686 459 3090 .1485
4.50 5.00 -1359.80 5812.00 0.7660 392 2906 .1349
5.00 5.50 -1360.50 5254.00 0.7411 314 2627 .1195
5.50 6.00 -959.70 4792.00 0.7997 286 2396 .1194
6.00 6.50 -1152.40 4482.00 0.7429 232 2241 .1035
6.50 7.00 -726.90 4114.00 0.8233 222 2057 .1079
7.00 7.50 -639.20 3778.00 0.8308 193 1889 .1022
7.50 8.00 -769.90 3482.00 0.7789 157 1741 .0902
8.00 8.50 -821.10 3280.00 0.7497 134 1640 .0817
8.50 9.00 -759.70 3140.00 0.7581 123 1570 .0783
9.00 9999.00 -26030.10 83068.00 0.6866 1523 41534 .0367



Ending BankRoll: $39.65
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $488.00
Low BankRoll: $39.65
Bet Percentage: 0.0250
Max Bet: 500.00




Next I decided to break it out by just horses going off 9/1 or better for both years and as you can see rank 2 is slightly profitable over the 2 year period.

2008 output:





query start: 5/28/2009 11:58:21 AM
query end: 5/28/2009 12:01:36 PM
elapsed time: 195 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\DB\AADATABASE2008\pl_OddsRange_9_to_999_.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 155200.90 149463.60 143755.00
Bet -220570.00-220570.00-220570.00
Gain -65369.10 -71106.40 -76815.00

Wins 4061 10624 19654
Plays 110285 110285 110285
PCT .0368 .0963 .1782

ROI 0.7036 0.6776 0.6517
Avg Mut 38.22 14.07 7.31


By: Prime Power Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -186.90 1488.00 0.8744 55 744 .0739 2.0076
2 -197.20 4906.00 0.9598 164 2453 .0669 1.8156
3 -2311.40 12138.00 0.8096 366 6069 .0603 1.6377
4 -5366.10 22578.00 0.7623 575 11289 .0509 1.3832
5 -7379.50 32832.00 0.7752 752 16416 .0458 1.2440
6 -9255.90 38628.00 0.7604 777 19314 .0402 1.0925
7 -12040.60 36302.00 0.6683 569 18151 .0313 0.8513
8 -9786.60 28732.00 0.6594 389 14366 .0271 0.7354
9 -7962.30 19938.00 0.6006 215 9969 .0216 0.5857
10 -5765.20 12928.00 0.5541 123 6464 .0190 0.5168
11 -2858.30 6384.00 0.5523 51 3192 .0160 0.4339
12 -1697.10 3090.00 0.4508 23 1545 .0149 0.4043
13 -401.60 438.00 0.0831 1 219 .0046 0.1240
14 -150.40 178.00 0.1551 1 89 .0112 0.3051
15 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
16 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
17 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
1.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
1.50 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
2.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
2.50 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
3.00 3.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
3.50 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
4.00 4.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
4.50 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
5.00 5.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
5.50 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.00 6.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.50 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
7.00 7.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
7.50 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
8.00 8.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
8.50 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
9.00 9999.00 -65369.10 220570.00 0.7036 4061 110285 .0368



Ending BankRoll: $39.50
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $645.30
Low BankRoll: $39.50
Bet Percentage: 0.0250
Max Bet: 500.00




2009 output:





query start: 5/28/2009 12:36:46 PM
query end: 5/28/2009 12:38:41 PM
elapsed time: 115 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\DB\BBBDATABASE2009\pl_OddsRange_9_to_999_.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 57037.90 55867.10 53973.70
Bet -83068.00 -83068.00 -83068.00
Gain -26030.10 -27200.90 -29094.30

Wins 1523 4003 7408
Plays 41534 41534 41534
PCT .0367 .0964 .1784

ROI 0.6866 0.6725 0.6498
Avg Mut 37.45 13.96 7.29


By: Prime Power Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -19.80 562.00 0.9648 19 281 .0676 1.8440
2 209.40 1658.00 1.1263 71 829 .0856 2.3356
3 -1346.70 4420.00 0.6953 117 2210 .0529 1.4438
4 -2048.00 8228.00 0.7511 212 4114 .0515 1.4053
5 -2916.60 12518.00 0.7670 282 6259 .0451 1.2287
6 -3912.80 14894.00 0.7373 301 7447 .0404 1.1023
7 -4771.30 13760.00 0.6532 214 6880 .0311 0.8483
8 -3481.70 10842.00 0.6789 156 5421 .0288 0.7848
9 -3650.10 7598.00 0.5196 68 3799 .0179 0.4881
10 -2362.50 4964.00 0.5241 50 2482 .0201 0.5494
11 -920.00 2462.00 0.6263 27 1231 .0219 0.5981
12 -801.20 1050.00 0.2370 5 525 .0095 0.2597
13 -80.00 80.00 0.0000 0 40 .0000 0.0000
14 -22.00 22.00 0.0000 0 11 .0000 0.0000
15 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
16 101.20 2.00 51.6000 1 1 1.0000 27.271
17 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
18 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
1.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
1.50 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
2.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
2.50 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
3.00 3.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
3.50 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
4.00 4.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
4.50 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
5.00 5.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
5.50 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.00 6.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.50 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
7.00 7.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
7.50 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
8.00 8.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
8.50 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
9.00 9999.00 -26030.10 83068.00 0.6866 1523 41534 .0367



Ending BankRoll: $39.30
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $488.00
Low BankRoll: $39.30
Bet Percentage: 0.0250
Max Bet: 500.00

[Jake]

If I were to bet the prime power number, which I prefer to ignore, I would simply be looking to play either the 1st or 2nd ranked at above 3-1. You play the 2nd ranked horse when he looks like he can beat the 1st ranked horse. This may sound like a smart ass reply, but it's really looking for a value play between the top two contenders. I understand that wasn't the point of this thread, but I sometimes think everyone wants to overly complicate a pretty simple process. Just my opinion.


Jake

[cmoore]

hdcpers database figures for prime power ranking number two at 9-1 odds or higher over a 2 year span..

829 bets
71 wins = 1.12 ROI....interesting...How about plugging in some exacta bets using the same positive win roi...

hypothetical..

829 bets x 200 per bet = $165,800 at a 1.12 ROI equals a profit of $19,896

Someone would probably have to start with at least 20k...Then when you had those $200 win bets. Your Roi will go down especially at the smaller pool tracks..On the flip side..Make most of your bets over seas with a 6-8% kick back..Then you could possibly increase that ROI up to 15-17%..

Go back as many years as you can and see what the results are..

[hdcper]

C Moore,

Actually you are just looking at 2009, not a two year span. For 9/1 shots, there were 164 winners in 2008 out of 2453 Plays with an ROI of .9598.

For 2009 so far, 71 have won out of 829 with an ROI of 1.1263.

Thus, if we combine the two years, we have 235 wins out of 3281 plays with a ROI just better than break even of 1.002 ($12.20).

Sorry if that wasn't too clear,

Hdcper

[cmoore]

C Moore,

Actually you are just looking at 2009, not a two year span. For 9/1 shots, there were 164 winners in 2008 out of 2453 Plays with an ROI of .9598.

For 2009 so far, 71 have won out of 829 with an ROI of 1.1263.

Thus, if we combine the two years, we have 235 wins out of 3281 plays with a ROI just better than break even of 1.002 ($12.20).

Sorry if that wasn't too clear,

Hdcper

Oh, ok..

[Light]

maybe you should be doing research on the other 194 winners to uncover some longshot prospects?.....because now we are back to when to bet when not to bet?the prime is a useful number no matter how and why you use it.but it still boils down to when to bet when not to bet!

My whole point of posting my data on PP is to point out its negative return aspect. I do have some positive ROI models but, PP was not able to be a major player in them.A minor one,yes.

Speed,pace,class,a prep off a layoff,turn times,earnings etc are more concrete than some PP number whose formula is kept a secret. You have no idea what handicapping principals you are relying on using PP numbers.

[fmolf]

My whole point of posting my data on PP is to point out its negative return aspect. I do have some positive ROI models but, PP was not able to be a major player in them.A minor one,yes.

Speed,pace,class,a prep off a layoff,turn times,earnings etc are more concrete than some PP number whose formula is kept a secret. You have no idea what handicapping principals you are relying on using PP numbers.
this info is very interesting and thanks to all who have databases and contributed data... i really admire you guys ....i am 51 yrs old and i am computer illiterate. i only use it to get my pp's...hopefully when i have more time i will begin to realize and learn how to use this powerful handicapping tool to my advantage!

[Light]

Looking at my last 2 years of results from the Aqu Inner dirt track meet,I handicapped 656 races. 462 were won by the top 3 PP horses in rank. Investment betting the top 3 in all those races blindly was $3936. Return was $3582.

Came accross an important ommission here.

There were 283 route races in the data above. 186 were won by the top 3 PP horses for a 65% win percentage. Investment $1698. Return $1433. -$265 ROI-15.6%

There were 372 sprints in the data above. 276 were won by the top 3 PP horses for a 74% win percentage. Investment $2232. Return $2148. -$84
ROI -3.7%

Looks like there may be some hope yet for PP with a little tweaking at least in sprints. I realize this is a small sample,but I think its indicative. The Aqu inner dirt track meet is a good representation for this data. A classic,one mile dirt oval with 95% of their sprints at 6f. No 5f, 6.5f or 7f races. Very few 5.5f races. This could also mean that the PP works best at this sprint distance than other sprint distances,since I dont have data for the other sprint distances. Or it could be that PP works better at one track than another.