RA & Bird works

[joanied]

They both worked this morning...over a sloppy track, while it was raining...MTB went in 51+, RA in 50+....Borel was on MTB and was happy with the work.
so, IMO, niether of them was pressed for any speed, and these works are just breezes, nothing serious for either of them.
Now Jackson wants to wait until next week to decide on RA, after she works again.

One thing that bothers me...why don't both these camps move RA & MTB to Belmont? It seems to me that they sure would benefit with continuing their training at Belmont...IMO, both better get a good feel for the surface before they(or just MTB) run in the Belmont...staying at Churchill is driving me crazy:bang:

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Why did they work Rachel slower today? 50.2 Breezing...good for 10/38. For any normal horse, this workout time would be fine, but not Rachel. I don't like how Asmussen is content with working great horses slower and just trying to keep them happy.

Jess Jackson said Rachel came out of the preakness great and has been running like she wants to run through a brick wall. Why not let her run a bit faster and keep her happy? I doubt it would drain her for the Belmont if she were to run. I just get the feeling that maybe horses like Curlin and Rachel could run even better if they were with a little more aggressive trainer. I bet Helen Pitts could have done just as well, if not better than Asmussen did with Curlin. The same goes for Hal Wiggins and Rachel. Asmussen probably thinks his training regime is perfectly fine since he wins a fair amount of races, but those are mostly claiming and allowance races. I think he should train Rachel a little different or he'll waste her full potential. I bet if Calvin would have worked her this morning, they would have gone a little faster. Calvin lets her do what she wants instead of strangle holding her.

This is just my opinion, and many will not agree with me.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, Woolley drew a line in the sand last week, saying today was the deadline to decide who rides MTB in the Belmont.

But now it looks like Woolley is being strung along by Jackson, as Woolley has been quoted as saying "I hate to do this to y'all, but we're probably going to hold off on a decision for a few more days," he said. "Out of respect for Calvin and them, we're going to give them a little more time."

So much for deadlines.

This is getting interesting. I thought Rachel was a no-go for the Belmont as last week drew to a close, but now I would have to think that she is going to run, based on today's non-decision.

If she wasn't going, there wouldn't be any need to draw this out....Jackson could have easily said today that the Belmont was out.

[FenceBored]

<conspiracy>
Could Jackson/Asmussen be putting Calvin in a spot? Say they drag this out to where Calvin commits to MTB. They wait a day or two more and then say, "oops, we are going to run her." Calvin would then have taken himself off Rachel, and they can ride Shaun or whomever.
</conspiracy>

Of course, if they did something like this and she gets beat ...

[toussaud]

Why did they work Rachel slower today? 50.2 Breezing...good for 10/38. For any normal horse, this workout time would be fine, but not Rachel. I don't like how Asmussen is content with working great horses slower and just trying to keep them happy.

Jess Jackson said Rachel came out of the preakness great and has been running like she wants to run through a brick wall. Why not let her run a bit faster and keep her happy? I doubt it would drain her for the Belmont if she were to run. I just get the feeling that maybe horses like Curlin and Rachel could run even better if they were with a little more aggressive trainer. I bet Helen Pitts could have done just as well, if not better than Asmussen did with Curlin. The same goes for Hal Wiggins and Rachel. Asmussen probably thinks his training regime is perfectly fine since he wins a fair amount of races, but those are mostly claiming and allowance races. I think he should train Rachel a little different or he'll waste her full potential. I bet if Calvin would have worked her this morning, they would have gone a little faster. Calvin lets her do what she wants instead of strangle holding her.

This is just my opinion, and many will not agree with me.


assmussen works all of his horses in the 50/51 1:01 change speeds he's the king of the slow work. you will enver see a fast work from an assumssen work.

this tells me nothing other than he has finally got his grips on the filly whereas last rac ehe had her for a couple of days.

she might not be ready, but that workout tells me nothing whatsoever

[Oaklawn]

assmussen works all of his horses in the 50/51 1:01 change speeds he's the king of the slow work. you will enver see a fast work from an assumssen work.

this tells me nothing other than he has finally got his grips on the filly whereas last rac ehe had her for a couple of days.

she might not be ready, but that workout tells me nothing whatsoever

This drives me crazy on his first time starters too. I never know which one is ready to go.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

assmussen works all of his horses in the 50/51 1:01 change speeds he's the king of the slow work. you will enver see a fast work from an assumssen work.

this tells me nothing other than he has finally got his grips on the filly whereas last rac ehe had her for a couple of days.

she might not be ready, but that workout tells me nothing whatsoever
I understand Asmussen works his horses slow, I just don't think thats the best way to train Rachel. If you keep pulling back on her during her works, she might be too keyed up during her races. I also don't know if he gets his horses fit enough by working them that slow. I would've liked to see Curlin work a little faster for some of his works too. I shouldn't be questioning him since he's obviously a good trainer, but I think other trainers could do better if they were given a great horse. He just has so many horses in the stable that he's bound to win a bunch of races, regardless of his slower works.

[toussaud]

I understand Asmussen works his horses slow, I just don't think thats the best way to train Rachel. If you keep pulling back on her during her works, she might be too keyed up during her races. I also don't know if he gets his horses fit enough by working them that slow. I would've liked to see Curlin work a little faster for some of his works too. I shouldn't be questioning him since he's obviously a good trainer, but I think other trainers could do better if they were given a great horse. He just has so many horses in the stable that he's bound to win a bunch of races, regardless of his slower works.

you are switching arguements.

the arguement isn't rather it's the best way to train rachael or not, the arguement is what can we tell from the work, and the answer is not very much. he works all his horses slow


and it seems to work for assumssen. he trained curlin for almost 2 years and the horse never missed a day of training from what i understand. but againt his isnt' about what is best, it's what is

[sandpit]

well, in defense of RA's time this morning, there was literally a downpour right in the middle of the work, so maybe it threw off the rider or the filly a little bit; who knows?

[Zenyatta To Crush]

you are switching arguements.

the arguement isn't rather it's the best way to train rachael or not, the arguement is what can we tell from the work, and the answer is not very much. he works all his horses slow


and it seems to work for assumssen. he trained curlin for almost 2 years and the horse never missed a day of training from what i understand. but againt his isnt' about what is best, it's what is
Well by the way Asmussen works his horses, its hard to tell if they are ready to roll or not. He works them all slow so I'm not sure what to make of Rachel's workout. If Wiggins was still training and Borel was on board for the work, I'd definitely be concerned about the 50.2 time. Whenever Curlin worked out slower, nobody was concerned because thats how Asmussen works his horses. Maybe Curlin could have won the Haskell and the Breeders Cup a second time if he had a trainer that worked him faster. I don't know.

Wiggins seemed to trust Calvin aboard Rachel, but Asmussen wants a specific time each time for her. I say, put Calvin back on for her works and just let her be comfortable....running slower uncomfortably would not be a good thing. I understand it started to rain pretty hard during the work, but I expected a faster time to say the least, especially since they say she wants to "run through a brick wall".

[badcompany]

but I expected a faster time to say the least, especially since they say she wants to "run through a brick wall".

You can't take anything these trainers say at face value.

She wants to run through a brick wall, yet, they haven't even confirmed that she'll be running the Belmont.

I get the feeling they want to create doubt so that the horse doesn't go off at 1/5.

[46zilzal]

The amount of physical strain incumbent on a three year old that tries the Triple is enormous. ANY trainer in his right mind would be 'under-training' his animal at this point as fitness is not a question but rather keeping the animal racing sound is.

Saying that Secretariat's last work before his Belmont was 5 f in :59 2/5. That one was blossoming, but of course comparing these two to that yardstick is, of course, not valid; Perfection is hard to reach.

[Hank]

I'm NO horseman, I have a rudimentary, and that might be a stretch, understanding of the training of a racehorse,However you guys Make me feel like the Bald eagle.Why on earth would they give RA a fast work in this spot?Does she need speed put into her?She not quite fit? Of course not, they just wanted to put her into a nice rhythm let her stretch her legs and assess her mental and physical condition. Also I will get the memo to Bill Mott cut out all those dam 4f breezes in 50 no wonder he's such a lousy horseman.:rolleyes:

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I understand that between the TC races, keeping a horse fit is not the number one issue, but keeping them sound and happy is. I just don't know if RA would be a happy horse if they forced her to continue running her slower than she wants.

Asmussen works his horses slower even when they are coming off a layoff. I think the reason why Curlin lost the Haskell was because of his training routine leading up to it and not necessarily the TC races. Anyways, I've never really liked Steve Asmussen too much. He's a good trainer but I don't think his training style works best with a horse like Rachel, who probably wants to do much more in her workouts, unlike many of his claiming and allowance horses.

[Cadillakin]

I'm NO horseman, I have a rudimentary, and that might be a stretch, understanding of the training of a racehorse,However you guys Make me feel like the Bald eagle.Why on earth would they give RA a fast work in this spot?Does she need speed put into her?She not quite fit? Of course not, they just wanted to put her into a nice rhythm let her stretch her legs and assess her mental and physical condition. Also I will get the memo to Bill Mott cut out all those dam 4f breezes in 50 no wonder he's such a lousy horseman.:rolleyes:
I think you are the Bald Eagle.. How's things on the other side?

[depalma113]

<conspiracy>
Could Jackson/Asmussen be putting Calvin in a spot? Say they drag this out to where Calvin commits to MTB. They wait a day or two more and then say, "oops, we are going to run her." Calvin would then have taken himself off Rachel, and they can ride Shaun or whomever.
</conspiracy>

Of course, if they did something like this and she gets beat ...

I think they want to get Borel off the horse without it being their decision. IMO, Jackson simply doesn't like all of the attention Borel is getting. I think he believes that not enough credit is being given to the horse. He wants Borel on Mine That Bird, so when Rachel Alexandra wins the Belmont with Robbie Albarado up, all the attention will be on Rachel Alexandra and of course Jackson himself, and not the jockey.

[FenceBored]

And here I thought I was being nutty. Then I read this.

http://www.courier-journal.com/blogs/trackside/2009/05/woolley-will-wait-on-borel-to-make.html (http://www.courier-journal.com/blogs/trackside/2009/05/woolley-will-wait-on-borel-to-make.html)


Jackson said Robby Albarado "probably" would ride Rachel Alexandra if Borel opted for Mine That Bird. Albarado rode two-time Horse of the Year Curlin for Jackson and Asmussen.

Jackson was noncommittal when asked if Borel would keep the mount for future races if he opted for Mine That Bird before a decision was made and then Rachel Alexandra did not run in the Belmont.

"I told him he could have her for the year if he stays with her," Jackson said. "So we'd have to look at that opportunity as well. Calvin is in business. I think he'd be pleased to ride either one financially. I think his heart is with the filly, though, but I'm not sure."

So, the only thing really nutty about my theory was using Bridgmohan.

Maybe Woolley should offer Albarado the ride on MTB in the Belmont as a backup to Calvin. :)

[joanied]

I think this entire thing stinks!! If Jackson & Assmussen are playing games someone needs to call them out on it...I wonder if Calvin's agent has said anything to them... IMO, if they take Calvin off Rachel, they are going to regret it... Jackson has everyone involved with the Belmont on 'stand by' and that sucks!!

As for Rachel's work on Monday... MTB went even slower than she did...so we can only think it was simply not prudent to work either horses faster considering the track was soup.
Actually, I don't know why they are still at Churchill...if it was me...I would already have them at Belmont...especailly Rachel A...I think MTB won't give a damn about the surface at Belmont and he'll run his race...but the filly may really need to train on it before the Belmont (IF she goes)

But, now that Wiggin's training is slipping away, I think we'll all be interested to see just how good a trainer Assmussen is...and IMO, he ain't so great...someone mentioned that Curlin may have won the BC Classic if he'd been worked faster leading up to it...that may very well be the case...I guess I never noticed:eek: that Steve A works everything slow...which leads me to think he isn't such a good trainer, because a really good trainer deals with every horse as an individual...some are Ok with slower works, but horses like Rachel & even Curlin, would greatly benefit from faster morning times...you cannot train every horse the same way...maybe Steve A needs to take a peek at Wiggin's training regime...and he needs to get Calvin working her too.
A big, strong filly like this needs work and plenty to keep her mind occupied...and in this short time, my gut feeling is Assumussen is not doing her justice.

Jackson may be a great 'sportsman'...but his ego seems to be taking center stage, and I, for one, do not like it:ThmbDown:

AAARRGGGHH:faint:

[Jinxed]

I don't personally think RA can get the extra distance at Belmont, and especially not if she runs with the speed she did from start to finish at the Preakness. I can, however, see Mine That Bird coming from off the pace to win it I guess the horse was definitely not a fluke. I may be the only one wondering if MTB could have won the Preakness with Calvin aboard, but he was sure whipping that filly down the lane. I guess I'm never going to know, but I'm not sure the filly wil go to the Preakness to be honest. I truly believe they are playing games with Calvin right now...just my 2 cents and probably not worth much. I still think that had the Preakness been longer MTB would have won it. I'm thinking maybe I'm the only one that feels this way though. It appeared RA was really tiring just as MTB was revving it up.

Anyone else feel that just maybe Calvin passed up his chances at a TC on MTB? Just wondering.

[badcompany]

I don't personally think RA can get the extra distance at Belmont, and especially not if she runs with the speed she did from start to finish at the Preakness. I can, however, see Mine That Bird coming from off the pace to win it I guess the horse was definitely not a fluke. Just wondering.

I don't see a horse to go w/ Rachel early as did Big Drama in the Preakness.

My scenario is Rachel gets loose on the lead, runs away and hides with MTB picking up the pieces for second.

[46zilzal]

I don't see a horse to go w/ Rachel early as did Big Drama in the Preakness.

My scenario is Rachel gets loose on the lead, runs away and hides with MTB picking up the pieces for second.
The distance may be a problem: more when the real past performances come out. Rising % medians, IF THERE, will be a tale here if found.

[Jinxed]

RA may be loose on the lead for a long time...but she was tiring in the lane in the Preakness..thus Calvin whipping her so much. She can't possibly get the extra distance. I think MTB could close like a freight train. Say what you want, I've watched the Preakness over and over and with a few furlongs to go MTB would have won it. Remember, this is simply one person's opinion and only my thoughts. I don't think RA, as good as she is, can win the Belmont.

I think the discussion may be moot anyway, because I don't think they are going to run her in the Belmont.

[tucker6]

Say what you want, I've watched the Preakness over and over and with a few furlongs to go MTB would have won it. Remember, this is simply one person's opinion and only my thoughts. I don't think RA, as good as she is, can win the Belmont.
Say what?? If the Preakness had a few furlongs to go, it'd be a two mile race.

[MickJ26]

Mine That Bird was gaining on her with every step in the final 1/16 of the Preakness. How would've Rachel hung on with an extra 5/16 to run? She doesn't deserve to finish third or fourth in the Belmont. She's too good for that. Save her for the Mother Goose, Coaching Club Oaks and the Alabama.

[toussaud]

my gosh wht's up with all the jacked up handicapping?

the race is 12F. you aren't going to get a 46 and change half in the freaking belmont

Rachael might not hold on, but it's not like right at the 9F mark mine that bird is going to blow by her and draw off like is being mentioned.


here was last year's fractions for the belmont

23.82, 48.30, 1:12.90, 1:37.96, 2:03.21, 2:29.65

here was the year before last's


24.74, 50.14, 1:15.32, 1:40.23, 2:04.91, 2:28.74


if rachael gets anywhere near a 49 second half mile you can forget it.

[Jinxed]

Say what?? If the Preakness had a few furlongs to go, it'd be a two mile race.

Perhaps 50 ft. would be a better distance..ya think? Fact is the Belmont is a longer race and I don't believe she can get get the distance. MTB was closing and closing well, and a little bit longer he would have won. RA was rode hard and put away wet. Like I said it's just my opinion. :bang:

It was a figure of speech, but thanks for always being there with your input. You are so appreciated :)

[Robert Fischer]

Comparing the final time of two workouts is rarely a useful comparison with an Asmussen workout.

What makes Rachel a little more interesting has nothing to do with the times, but with how she moved up when Borel started getting on her in the morning and building that response. Since that time, she has been a willing runner and her natural talent has proved special. You hear rumors about some jockeys and the techniques they use in the morning to build that response, but obviously Rachel has carried that form for many races now to have solidified any improvements. She isn't going to lose that willingness at this point.

[PaceAdvantage]

She can't possibly get the extra distance.Wow.

Question for you. Did the "Freight Train" EVER pass Rachel Alexandra AFTER the wire? No? Some freight train.

Why can't she get the extra distance? Her sire almost won the Belmont....she's got some Saddlers Wells in her....her dosage and CDI certainly indicate extra distance won't be a problem...and she beat the best 3yos currently running in the Preakness after dueling through the first six furlongs.

[WinterTriangle]

....her dosage and CDI certainly indicate extra distance won't be a problem...

Pace, it's all theoretical since none of them have actually run 12F. Basically, how can anybody say she can --- or can't?



But if doing this strictly on pedigree, (which didn't get me too far either :)) I thought I'd take a look at Sire stats for distances greater than 9F on all the BM contenders. Actually no standout for either Medaglia D'Oro or Birdstone:

http://www.breedingwinners.com/reports.asp
Bottom of page: Top Sire Reports-- take a look at Top Sires Greater than 9F(Dirt).

Also take a look at Top Sires at 9F (Dirt). The obvious higher %'s start showing up here are with Mineshaft/AP Indy and Tiznow.


On Dr. Roman's site, he gives RA the highest PF number----however, in the bottom area where he analyzes all the Pace Parameters for actual 12F distance scenario, in different categories, Rachel doesn't show up, except once under the total energy column. (very bottom of page)
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2009/2009_belmont_starters.htm


Let me know what you get out of reading these. It' all just theoretical anyway! Nobody knows. Back to square one.

If anyone has dam's sire or conduit mare stats as they relate to furlong distance, post 'em up. :)

[Jinxed]

Wow.

Question for you. Did the "Freight Train" EVER pass Rachel Alexandra AFTER the wire? No? Some freight train.

Why can't she get the extra distance? Her sire almost won the Belmont....she's got some Saddlers Wells in her....her dosage and CDI certainly indicate extra distance won't be a problem...and she beat the best 3yos currently running in the Preakness after dueling through the first six furlongs.

I guess you never say never in a horse race. I should have said "I don't think RA can get the distance." Are you going strictly on the "gallop out" after the race as an indicator that MTB couldn't have won with extra distance? I don't think that's any real indicator. Smith could have put the brakes on more MTB more then Calvin did on RA. I don't count the gallop out after the race as any indicator that RA could have gone the longer distance and MTB couldn't.

I guess we will see for ourselves when, and if, they run RA in the Belmont. I think they should quit with her while they are ahead, but you know what they say about opinions.

PA, you told me before the Preakness that I would never see Borel on RA again (even in the Preakness). Do you remember that? I still haven't figured out why you made that statement to be honest.

[ghostyapper]

Smith could have put the brakes on more MTB more then Calvin did on RA. I don't count the gallop out after the race as any indicator that RA could have gone the longer distance and MTB couldn't.

I've pointed this out before. Not only did calvin have 1 hand off the reins in celebration, but he even hit her in the neck after the wire all the while smith was slowing mtb down with 2 hands.

The gallop out was meaningless in the preakness.

[Robert Fischer]

looked like Mike Smith wrapped up and stopped driving the moment that Rachel crossed the wire.

Borel then celebrating with a loose reign also smacks Rachel with the palm of his right hand and gallops out along the rail. Mike Smith and Mine That Bird continue out to the center of the track while under wraps.

[joanied]

Pace, it's all theoretical since none of them have actually run 12F. Basically, how can anybody say she can --- or can't?



But if doing this strictly on pedigree, (which didn't get me too far either :)) I thought I'd take a look at Sire stats for distances greater than 9F on all the BM contenders. Actually no standout for either Medaglia D'Oro or Birdstone:

http://www.breedingwinners.com/reports.asp
Bottom of page: Top Sire Reports-- take a look at Top Sires Greater than 9F(Dirt).

Also take a look at Top Sires at 9F (Dirt). The obvious higher %'s start showing up here are with Mineshaft/AP Indy and Tiznow.


On Dr. Roman's site, he gives RA the highest PF number----however, in the bottom area where he analyzes all the Pace Parameters for actual 12F distance scenario, in different categories, Rachel doesn't show up, except once under the total energy column. (very bottom of page)
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2009/2009_belmont_starters.htm


Let me know what you get out of reading these. It' all just theoretical anyway! Nobody knows. Back to square one.

If anyone has dam's sire or conduit mare stats as they relate to furlong distance, post 'em up. :)

WT...thanks for posting the links...I had taken a look at them before....nearly went crossed eyed trying to read all those lists and follow them:faint:...but I liked your first paragraph....

"Pace, it's all theoretical since none of them have actually run 12F. Basically, how can anybody say she can --- or can't?"

I think that says it all...unless it's pretty obvious that a horse just has no stamina influence (fairly up close)...who knows whether or not that horse can get the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont...talk about unchartered territory...even MTB might get all the way to the 1/16th pole, then stop...we don't know...and I guess that is one of the things that makes horse racing so great and so...mysterious at times:confused: ...and drives us nuts trying to figure it all out:D

[PaceAdvantage]

PA, you told me before the Preakness that I would never see Borel on RA again (even in the Preakness). Do you remember that? I still haven't figured out why you made that statement to be honest.Easy. As far as I knew (and correct me if I'm wrong), Steve Asmussen has never ridden Borel on any of his top horses. Plus I didn't see Jess Jackson as the type to put a jockey he's not personally familiar with on a horse he just paid top dollar for.

Very logical reasons, if you ask me. Can you figure now?

[PaceAdvantage]

I've pointed this out before. Not only did calvin have 1 hand off the reins in celebration, but he even hit her in the neck after the wire all the while smith was slowing mtb down with 2 hands.

The gallop out was meaningless in the preakness.But she was supposedly "very tired" and MTB was supposedly "moving like a freight train."

If that was true, a slap on the neck and a hand off the reigns ain't going to do a bit of difference.

[ghostyapper]

But she was supposedly "very tired" and MTB was supposedly "moving like a freight train."

If that was true, a slap on the neck and a hand off the reigns ain't going to do a bit of difference.

I see so your strategy is, instead of admitting that you were wrong putting so much weight into the gallop out, you've decided to just pull some random quotes out of thin air and claim that a jockey tightening the reins on a horse should have no affect on how fast the horse runs.

I guess I can play the same game and say if the preakness was such a "dominating performance by RA" why are Rachel's defenders spending so much time discussing the gallop out? I don't recall such a lively discussion on the gallop outs of dominant performances in the preakness by smarty jones, funny cide, or big brown.

Guess it wasn't such a "dominating performance" was it?

[Jinxed]

Easy. As far as I knew (and correct me if I'm wrong), Steve Asmussen has never ridden Borel on any of his top horses. Plus I didn't see Jess Jackson as the type to put a jockey he's not personally familiar with on a horse he just paid top dollar for.

Very logical reasons, if you ask me. Can you figure now?

Asmussen didn't make the call on this one, Jackson did. He promised Borel he would always have the ride on RA. I read that the day she was sold, and I just simply saw an owner as keeping his promise Please don't tell me you think Asmussen gets to do anything he wants. He works for the owner.

[Robert Fischer]

Asmussen didn't make the call on this one, Jackson did. He promised Borel he would always have the ride on RA. I read that the day she was sold, and I just simply saw an owner as keeping his promise Please don't tell me you think Asmussen gets to do anything he wants. He works for the owner.

I gotta side with PA on this one. I doubt Jess Jackson is over-ruling Asmussen on jockey calls or workout strategies.
These trainers have the top jocks they are familiar with doing business with, and sooner or later those guys tend to get on their barn's new stock.

[Robert Fischer]

Guess it wasn't such a "dominating performance" was it?

Evaluating the Preakness is a personal opinion each handicapper has to form, and it is largely based on how tough a trip Rachel had, especially considering how fast she went.
A lot of the supposed better horses stopped cold from chasing that pace. Setting the pace can be easier than chasing the pace, but she did go a little wide into the first turn as well.
Mine That Bird had a beautiful set up.

Paceadvantage dot com and we have a performance that largely depends on the pace scenario.

I thought it was a pretty good race. I didn't see a superhorse race, but it was impressive. I never felt the race was in doubt, and I felt Borel and Rachel "won" the race at about 1 1/16th to 1 1/8th and that after that was academic should she come home safely.

Others may feel that the pace was nothing special or that Mine That Bird had an actual chance of beating her.

[Jinxed]

I gotta side with PA on this one. I doubt Jess Jackson is over-ruling Asmussen on jockey calls or workout strategies.
These trainers have the top jocks they are familiar with doing business with, and sooner or later those guys tend to get on their barn's new stock.

Run a YAHOO search and read all about it. Jackson promised Borel he would have the ride on RA as long as he wanted it. If I see something in black and white, I'm sure going to believe it when it comes from a reputabe source. Asmussen had absolutely nothing to do with this call at all. I don't think it ever came to Asmussen having a say in who rode RA. The promise was made to Calvin the day of the sale.

[Jinxed]

I gotta side with PA on this one. I doubt Jess Jackson is over-ruling Asmussen on jockey calls or workout strategies.
These trainers have the top jocks they are familiar with doing business with, and sooner or later those guys tend to get on their barn's new stock.

PA told me before the Preakness I would not see Borel on RA. Wrong!! How can you even state Borel wasn't promised the ride by the owner, when obviously he was. He rode her in the Preakness didn't he? I don't think that was an Asmussen call. If..big if and I doubt it is going to happen....RA runs in the Belmont, Calvin could have the ride. My feeling is he could lose out on riding MTB if he waits for a decision on RA, because I don't think it's going to happen. There is a chance Borel will outsmart himself waiting for a decison on RA and not even have a mount for the Belmont. It could happen. He is the one who opted off MTB for the Preakness, so maybe he is now going to pay the piper, so to speak. I personally think he could have done wonderfully on MTB, but I'm not going to argue it anymore.

[ghostyapper]

Evaluating the Preakness is a personal opinion each handicapper has to form, and it is largely based on how tough a trip Rachel had, especially considering how fast she went.
A lot of the supposed better horses stopped cold from chasing that pace. Setting the pace can be easier than chasing the pace, but she did go a little wide into the first turn as well.
Mine That Bird had a beautiful set up.


MTB got caught in traffic and went 7 WIDE around the turn. Nothing beautiful about that. And big drama, who dueled with Rachel finished 5 lengths back, I wouldn't call that "stopped cold". This was a horse who never went beyond 8.5 furlongs, his only race of this year being 7 furlongs

[Robert Fischer]

MTB got caught in traffic and went 7 WIDE around the turn. Nothing beautiful about that. And big drama, who dueled with Rachel finished 5 lengths back, I wouldn't call that "stopped cold". This was a horse who never went beyond 8.5 furlongs, his only race of this year being 7 furlongs

I happen to disagree with these points, but you are exactly right. It comes down to your personal opinion about the pace of that race, largely due to the race being won by a frontrunner in fractions somewhere between "honest" and "blazing", and the runner-up being a one run closer.

Once you sort out your opinions on the pace the whole race will be fairly easy. Most importantly evaluating Rachel and Mine That Bird's performances.

[lamboguy]

Asmussen didn't make the call on this one, Jackson did. He promised Borel he would always have the ride on RA. I read that the day she was sold, and I just simply saw an owner as keeping his promise Please don't tell me you think Asmussen gets to do anything he wants. He works for the owner.

if he loses on rachel, they will be faster than flash gordon to make a jockey change.

[FenceBored]

There is a chance Borel will outsmart himself waiting for a decison on RA and not even have a mount for the Belmont. It could happen. He is the one who opted off MTB for the Preakness, so maybe he is now going to pay the piper, so to speak.

Would you believe Jackson's own words?
Jackson was noncommittal when asked if Borel would keep the mount for future races if he opted for Mine That Bird before a decision was made and then Rachel Alexandra did not run in the Belmont.

"I told him he could have her for the year if he stays with her," Jackson said. "So we'd have to look at that opportunity as well. Calvin is in business. I think he'd be pleased to ride either one financially. I think his heart is with the filly, though, but I'm not sure."

-- http://www.courier-journal.com/blogs/trackside/2009/05/woolley-will-wait-on-borel-to-make.html

Calvin is just trying to keep the ride on Rachel. The way I read that, if Calvin commits to MTB before Jackson announces his decision, Calvin is off Rachel forever. And Robbie Albarado gets a new meal ticket.

Of course, if Jackson and Asmussen really want Calvin off of Rachel they ought to just bite the bullet and say so. But, that wouldn't be good PR.

[FenceBored]

Pace, it's all theoretical since none of them have actually run 12F. Basically, how can anybody say she can --- or can't?



But if doing this strictly on pedigree, (which didn't get me too far either :)) I thought I'd take a look at Sire stats for distances greater than 9F on all the BM contenders. Actually no standout for either Medaglia D'Oro or Birdstone:

http://www.breedingwinners.com/reports.asp
Bottom of page: Top Sire Reports-- take a look at Top Sires Greater than 9F(Dirt).

Also take a look at Top Sires at 9F (Dirt). The obvious higher %'s start showing up here are with Mineshaft/AP Indy and Tiznow.


Maybe this is your point, but since they're both 2nd crop sires you wouldn't expect them to be on a list of top sires of distance races, based on data from 5/4/06 to 5/3/09.

Yeah, it's all probabilities and doesn't determine anything about these particular individuals in this particular race. And yet, say I tell you that the sire of the :4: has 36% winners at today's distance of 10f, the sire of the :7: has 3%, both sires are well established with a roughly equal number of starters at the distance, their both at 6-1 (because of a 3-5 shot we both know is vunerable) and you don't know anything else about the horses. I hand the teller $100 for you to bet on one of the two horses, which one would you choose? Yeah, I know, the :12:, because it's a gray. :)

[Jinxed]

Would you believe Jackson's own words?
Jackson was noncommittal when asked if Borel would keep the mount for future races if he opted for Mine That Bird before a decision was made and then Rachel Alexandra did not run in the Belmont.

"I told him he could have her for the year if he stays with her," Jackson said. "So we'd have to look at that opportunity as well. Calvin is in business. I think he'd be pleased to ride either one financially. I think his heart is with the filly, though, but I'm not sure."

-- http://www.courier-journal.com/blogs/trackside/2009/05/woolley-will-wait-on-borel-to-make.html

Calvin is just trying to keep the ride on Rachel. The way I read that, if Calvin commits to MTB before Jackson announces his decision, Calvin is off Rachel forever. And Robbie Albarado gets a new meal ticket.

Of course, if Jackson and Asmussen really want Calvin off of Rachel they ought to just bite the bullet and say so. But, that wouldn't be good PR.

The subject was the fact that Asmussen wouldn't use Calvin. You just made my point by saying exactly what I did..Borel has been promised the ride on RA for a year definitely. I know that is what Jackson said. I don't disput that at all. The fact is Calvin could opt to wait for RA and she probably isn't going to run. So, if he ends up on something else at that point, he may end up on a horse that doesn't have much of a chance. My thoughts are he should jump on MTB, because I think he is being jerked around about RA. I think they put him in a lousy position by not even deciding till next Monday to see if she will even be entered. Her next work is scheduled for Mon., and remember she certainly is not at Belmont at all, so I'd say her chances of going are slim to none. My point was that Borel was offered the ride on RA, so saying Asmussen would NOT use him was just wrong. I know the decision was made by Jackson.

There is a lot of messing around with this race, and some of it feels intentional. Borel is between a rock and a hard place, and if he's smart he will choose MTB. If RA doesn't run in the Belmont, why would they not keep Borel on her? Every jock wants a mount. Smart move is to choose MTB and be done with it, because I feel RA isn't taking on a 1 1/2 race.

I don't care where Borel's heart is. This is a matter of making money. They are jerking Borel around as far as I can see. Wy would they want Borel off RA? It makes no sense to me.

[MickJ26]

It seems fairly obvious they're stringing Calvin along hoping he'll take the mount on Mine That Bird. Doesn't seem like a classy thing to do, but, business is business. Borel also needs to think about future business. I'm sure he'll be in demand regardless of who he rides. I hope he picks Mine That Bird.

[Jinxed]

I hope Borel picks MTB, because I doubt very seriously that RA is running in the Belmont. I think Jackson and company are playing games.

[FenceBored]

The subject was the fact that Asmussen wouldn't use Calvin. You just made my point by saying exactly what I did..Borel has been promised the ride on RA for a year definitely. I know that is what Jackson said. I don't disput that at all. The fact is Calvin could opt to wait for RA and she probably isn't going to run. So, if he ends up on something else at that point, he may end up on a horse that doesn't have much of a chance. My thoughts are he should jump on MTB, because I think he is being jerked around about RA. I think they put him in a lousy position by not even deciding till next Monday to see if she will even be entered. Her next work is scheduled for Mon., and remember she certainly is not at Belmont at all, so I'd say her chances of going are slim to none. My point was that Borel was offered the ride on RA, so saying Asmussen would NOT use him was just wrong. I know the decision was made by Jackson.

There is a lot of messing around with this race, and some of it feels intentional. Borel is between a rock and a hard place, and if he's smart he will choose MTB. If RA doesn't run in the Belmont, why would they not keep Borel on her?

Jackson, not Asmussen, is saying the promise was conditional not definitive. Calvin can have the mount the rest of the year "if he stays with her." Not, Calvin has the mount for the rest of the year, period.

The question Jackson was asked was, in essence: "If Calvin takes Jinxed's advice, will Rachel be waiting for him when he gets back from the Belmont?"

That's where Jackson, not Asmussen, starts waffling. If he was solid on Calvin riding her in the future he would have said, "Definitely, Calvin is her guy." He didn't say that. He said, "I told him he could have her for the year if he stays with her. (emphasis added) So we'd have to look at that opportunity as well." What opportunity? The opportunity to put another jockey on Rachel. Calvin saying he will ride MTB before Jackson announces his decision is not 'staying with her,' thus Jackson will feel free to use that "opportunity" to put someone else on her in all future races. So the way I interpret his answer is, 'Calvin either waits on my decision, or he never rides this filly again.'

[Jinxed]

I heard (and I'm not positive on this) that MTB's connections will wait for a decision on RA running, before naming the jockey. That seems to me like they are the ones being the most fair in all of this. Things apparently will remain up in the air till next Mon. at least on RA, but my feelings are they are not going to run her, and they truthfully have no reason to take chances with her. She has a lot more races in her future, and this is a long and grueling race for this filly after the Preakness. In any case it looks like they will wait for Calvin before naming the jockey on MTB. I hope that is the case.

[FenceBored]

I heard (and I'm not positive on this) that MTB's connections will wait for a decision on RA running, before naming the jockey. That seems to me like they are the ones being the most fair in all of this.

:ThmbUp: They've been a true class act. Here's the article confirming it.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50992/woolley-will-wait-for-jacksons-decision

[PaceAdvantage]

:ThmbUp: They've been a true class act.Really? Conspiring with other owners to stuff the gate and keep the filly out of the Preakness is all class in your book?

[Derbyman32]

Really? Conspiring with other owners to stuff the gate and keep the filly out of the Preakness is all class in your book?

Mine That Bird could wait till Friday and still get just about any jockey that he truly wants.

Also all the talk about MTB being 7 wide in the turn just is not true. He swung out 7 wide at the top of the stretch and got the exact trip a big closer usually gets. Mine that Bird didn't even have to check to get a way through.

If they thought that they could get another dream trip up the rail in the Preakness they were just wrong. The other jockey's were not about to repeat that mistake again.
iso cam of the Preakness
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/3032808

[ghostyapper]

Also all the talk about MTB being 7 wide in the turn just is not true. He swung out 7 wide at the top of the stretch and got the exact trip a big closer usually gets. Mine that Bird didn't even have to check to get a way through.


Again everyone knows he was not 7 wide the entire turn. And swinging out 7 wide is not the "exact trip a big closer gets." He lost ground having to swing out while rachel swung out no further than the 3 path. That is a huge difference in ground saved. It's a shame people continue to incorrectly state that MTB had a dream trip or "exact trip a closer gets"

From the chart "steadied behind a wall of rivals"

[Derbyman32]

Again everyone knows he was not 7 wide the entire turn. And swinging out 7 wide is not the "exact trip a big closer gets." He lost ground having to swing out while rachel swung out no further than the 3 path. That is a huge difference in ground saved. It's a shame people continue to incorrectly state that MTB had a dream trip or "exact trip a closer gets"

From the chart "steadied behind a wall of rivals"



Also RA was out of the 13 whole and had to run the 1st turn in the 4 path thanks to Big Drama. That was exactly what Big Drama hoped would happen but RA still cleared for the lead on the backside. She was the one with a "harder trip" , not MTB.

[ghostyapper]

Afraid to watch the iso replay because you know you are wrong? Smith wanted a whole to open and it did not. Being a "big closer" is generally something that trainers do not like. Instead they prefer early speed or a close stalking position. Can't say that I blame them. MTB was lucky to get the trip he got considering the position he found himself in. As long as they continue to run him that way he will always have the possibility of a wide or shut off trip.

First I've watched that iso multiple times and it doesn't show a dream trip. MTB may in fact get shutout or forced wide in many races in his career with his running style but when that does happen lets not pretend he got a good trip. Same with Rachel, being a front runner she might get caught in a speed duel in some races. Lord knows we've heard about her preakness speed duel 1000's of times so why can't we point out MTB's troubled trip? Or should we just brush it aside because he's a closer and leave all the excuses for Rachel?

[ghostyapper]

Also RA was out of the 13 whole and had to run the 1st turn in the 4 path thanks to Big Drama. That was exactly what Big Drama hoped would happen but RA still cleared for the lead on the backside. She was the one with a "harder trip" , not MTB.

Seriously it's comments like this that drive me crazy. On the one hand you ignore how MTB had to swing out 7 wide and was no less than 4 wide the entire turn and in the next breath you'll point out how rachel was 4 wide the first turn and had the "tougher" trip.

[Derbyman32]

First I've watched that iso multiple times and it doesn't show a dream trip. MTB may in fact get shutout or forced wide in many races in his career with his running style but when that does happen lets not pretend he got a good trip. Same with Rachel, being a front runner she might get caught in a speed duel in some races. Lord knows we've heard about her preakness speed duel 1000's of times so why can't we point out MTB's troubled trip? Or should we just brush it aside because he's a closer and leave all the excuses for Rachel?

I never said that MTB got a "dream trip" because he didn't but the MTB's camp of followers state how bad the trip was. I ask you again .... What did you expect from a deep closer ,,, a ride up the rail again :bang:

[FenceBored]

Really? Conspiring with other owners to stuff the gate and keep the filly out of the Preakness is all class in your book?

:blush: No, not at all.

Just goes to show how quickly one can forget something. I do think Woolley has been gracious about the jockey situation with both Smith and Borel, but the call to Zayat, etc. was reprehensible.

[Cadillakin]

Jackson, not Asmussen, is saying the promise was conditional not definitive. Calvin can have the mount the rest of the year "if he stays with her." Not, Calvin has the mount for the rest of the year, period.

The question Jackson was asked was, in essence: "If Calvin takes Jinxed's advice, will Rachel be waiting for him when he gets back from the Belmont?"

That's where Jackson, not Asmussen, starts waffling. If he was solid on Calvin riding her in the future he would have said, "Definitely, Calvin is her guy." He didn't say that. He said, "I told him he could have her for the year if he stays with her. (emphasis added) So we'd have to look at that opportunity as well." What opportunity? The opportunity to put another jockey on Rachel. Calvin saying he will ride MTB before Jackson announces his decision is not 'staying with her,' thus Jackson will feel free to use that "opportunity" to put someone else on her in all future races. So the way I interpret his answer is, 'Calvin either waits on my decision, or he never rides this filly again.'
It's a shame Calvin is caught up in this..

If I were him, I'd give Jackson the finger, give Rachel a hug, and go ride the little horse...

[Jinxed]

It's a shame Calvin is caught up in this..

If I were him, I'd give Jackson the finger, give Rachel a hug, and go ride the little horse...

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Jinxed]

Really? Conspiring with other owners to stuff the gate and keep the filly out of the Preakness is all class in your book?

Considering the fact that talk is cheap, the owners of MTB did not "stuff the field", and I think there is more to the story then we have heard. I would have thought they were absolute jerks if they had...fact is they didn't. I give them a pass on this one, because there is a lot of crap that goes on in horseracing. :bang:

They definitely are being the class act now, and no one can deny it.