Low Class Track vs High Class Track

[gambler844]

Do you think it is harded to handicap and win at a low class track like Charlestown than it is to handicap and win at a higher class track? Do you think it is harder to predict how a lower class track horses will run ?

[Rick Ransom]

My two best tracks over the long run have been Santa Anita and Turf Paradise. One's high class, the other low class.

Speed figures are more accurate at higher class tracks, but what you really want is a track that is predictable using factors that the public doesn't use. If your track is highly predicatable based on last race speed figures, there's probably no way you can beat it. The same is true if the morning line is extremely good. When everyone has the same good information, nobody has an edge.

My general answer though would be that I like medium level tracks the best because they reflect the overall averages for various factors better than those at either extreme.

[Butch]

Much easier at the lower-end tracks---if you know what you're doing.

1) You have cheaper stock, which means consistency and last race finish (which the crowd dotes on) go out the window. One can use information not commonly used by the public to win with.

2) The pools are smaller, so any betting activity that isn't the result of conventional handicapping will be easier to spot.

3) The competition from knowledgeable players isn't as intense, although with simulcast wagering, that's not as true as it used to be.

So what tracks to I play? NYRA, SoCal, Kentucky, and Florida. Why the four biggest circuits? Because to play the smaller tracks profitably, you have to know what you're doing, and I don't. :D

Butch

[Rick Ransom]

Butch,

I think early speed bias is much more common at cheap tracks and some have done pretty well taking advantage of this. But I can see the bias at most tracks becoming more "fair" than it has been in the past, so I don't emphasize pace in my handicapping. There are good ways to use pace figures, but they involve acceleration and energy, not velocity alone.

[so.cal.fan]

At any track, if you can classify the horses correctly, you can win.

I find I don't really mind betting a specific "Class" of track,I think I let the race and condition of the horses determine if I make a bet.
I will bet a cheap claiming race at a cheap track if I can isolate one or two contenders,and take the rest of the field(or the most probable contenders) and hope for good prices on the exotics.I will pass the race if I can't get a feel for who will or can win,as it may look like a race that all the horses are equally worthless.
I will bet a major track if it looks like the race may be contentious,with several contenders at a good price,or I might pass the race if it looks like a,"well I got the dolllar trifecta,paid 18 bucks....."deal,because the contenders were all short prices.
So for me I would let the race be the deciding factor,and not the track or the "quality" of the racing.

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
At any track, if you can classify the horses correctly, you can win.


A Phil Smith truism. -NDJ

[takeout]

I think they're all hard. A game where you have to be roughly 20% better than everyone else, just to break even, is a pretty rough deal to begin with. That's why the big boys love their perks and rebates. I've always liked the cheaper racing, but then again my bankroll isn't going to short circuit any tote boards either. :)

[hurrikane]

I don't usually care. I look for horses with a hidden advantage in a race and a price. I don't care if he is at Bel or FE. I hit more longshots at the cheaper tracks and have a higher ROI but I look more for the advantaged horse in a race than a track.

With that said...i agree with so cal fan completely...which in direct opposition to the last paragraph it says you have to specialize in a few tracks and learn them well.

Conflicted. :D

[Rick Ransom]

Different factors work better at different tracks, so I think you have to find the set of tracks that fit your methods best. It could be a big advantage to play a track that has a long season since you'll know it better. On the other hand so will everyone else. If you're not good at track-to-track comparisons, it's probably better to pick one where the horses don't move around a lot. But if you're good at it, you might want lot's of shippers because you'll have an advantage over the crowd.

I'd rather play California tracks since it's more compatible with my sleep schedule, but I don't really like Hollywood. Santa Anita and Del Mar are great though. My biggest problem is that during some parts of the year (like right now), there are too many good tracks to play, and other times (like a couple of months ago), too few.