Chris Longshot
05-25-2009, 02:58 AM
RACE 1
#1 ALEXIA: Has 2 turf placings on form but that was under a different trainer and under a completely different horse. Trainer obviously a minus and with all the speed to the outside and inherits the rail the horse is the easiest of throwouts.
#2 TOUCH OF JAZZ: Firster on turf for Allen picked the wrong spot for his debut, another horse that will left behind early near the rail. Three postives though, one, Allen runners do well on the turf and usually at nice odds, two, stalking style might help here despite the 4 1/2 furlong trip, more importantly while Golden Missle runners are not known for there turf prowress, his damsire Alphabet Soup is, I would look for this one to improve a race or two down the road in a more sensible spot but a 3rd place finish here would not be out of the question.
#3 RUNNING DOTTIET: Johnston speedster outdueled a good Shaneyfelt horse, Queen Commando, in last. Obviously is quick and one of many candidates to inherit the lead early. Only question is the first time turf experiment. Running Stag runners do suprisingly well, so based on pedigree he should relish the lawn but Johnston does not possess good turf percentages with limited runners, I would look for some value here, risky at a very short price.
#4 DAT'S MA LOOT: Off since 08', no turf pedigree, trainer never wins, you get my point.
#5 FIST OF THE FLEET: Englehart runner won handily in last at FL, has competitive placings on turf but only shows 1 win. Trainer doesn't have great percentages on turf but Parker sees fit, who is a solid turf rider. Will be in the middle of a speedball sandwhich early, looks like a 2nd/3rd place finisher on turf record but if anyone can make this horse a winner Parker can.
#6 BEAUTIFUL RACKET: Scooter runner has 3 placings on turf and should be fit. Drops slightly, Davila takes the call and the two have had some success in the past, Scooter good percentage with turf runners and should be gunning early. Obvious negative is that Parker leaves for the probable favorite the #5. But if you looking for a little bit more value albeit slightly, it would be no big suprise with this runner.
#7 BELLE OF ASCOT: Shaneyfelt runners always should be respected and looks like you will get close ML odds on this one. Though getting the lead will be beneficial, this horse has shown an ability to stalk and win on dirt. Being on the outside of speeds shoulds help. The 0-3 on turf hardly encouraging but that was under a different conditioner. Look for a better outing on the turf this time. A definate player.
#8 GETCHA SAM: Never seen a Akers runner run well on turf, 3L badly outclassed and with with no speed, has no shot, easy throwout.
#9 KATNIK: Fletcher runner was in sharp form when claimed from Shaneyfelt. Experiences the turf for the first time but no promblem here, Kipper Kelly runners do very well on on turf. Horse is quick but might prefer 6 furlongs and Vickers I prefer on a closer, should be off the speeds early, have a feeling this horse will get a wide trip around the turn, hurting its chances late but Fletcher has been winning with horses and getting prices, so we'll keep an eye on this one, just prefer others in this spot.
#10 FOR LOVE OR MONEY: trainer doesn't win on turf or dirt, is 0-2, has no speed, jumps in class, a race filler.
Very tough race with all the speeds, look for the break to play a big role in the outcome of the race, always seems at this distance 1 or 2 of the speeds break bad altering the pace complexion. Wouldn't look for any suprises, the likely chalks all look solid!!!
RACE 2
#1 FROSTBURG: Owns two wins on the Mountaineer sod. Bernindini deadly last year on the turf will all his runners. Owns a win at this distance and should be up there early. If I get any sort of a price on him I have to use just based on the trainers turf reputation.
#2 FOG BUSTER: Horse 1-6 on turf but no worries trainer 26% turf to dirt, has been competitve in higher claimers on dirt, exita a key race in November, could be a possible overlay, Cox good with turf runners.
#3 WESTERN SKYLINE: Cox runner owns a turf win on form but has been sluggish of late and looks to prefer the synthetic surfaces. When right, could be the speed and if able to get loose early could take it to the bank at juicy odds but will have to deal with the #1 Frostburg early. Cox's runner doing real well at the meet, and though the trainers turf stats are ordinary, Parker sees fit, intriguing at a price.
#4 BUDDAH CALLING: exits big time key race, already 4 next out winners, trainer has not run to many on the turf but Buddah runners do okay on the lawn should get a nice price on this one a definate longshot possibility.
#5 TIZ A COUP: Owns 4 wins on the turf, trainers percentage should not be a negative here since she has won with this animal on the sod. Obviously likes the turf and is dangerous but I prefer others in this spot.
#6 MOON IS A STAR: Wolfendale runner has been out of form of late but that was on dirt, has sold wins on turf and should be respected at the windows. However, I'm interested to see how the jock navigates the course, a lot of the new riders at MNR this season are not familiar with the turf course and it can be a bit quirky. And why no Q-MAN, who has excelled on this horse, that might indicate this one may not be ready yet, would like much more at double digit odds.
#7 CHALLENGER: Shaneyfelt runner obviously in good form tries turf for the first time is by Chester House a monster on the turf. Lightly raced runner could be the absolute goods on turf but does step up in class, if the #8 doesn't fire next likely to step up, I'll assume he'll like the turf but let price be my guide.
#8 BILLY ALLEN: All the signs point to this one but I am a bit skeptical here, first of all McDonnell does not excel with turf runners and why would this horse be privately sold off that good form on SA turf. If legit, obviously the horse is the one to beat plus jock/trainer 1 for 1 in tandem but I'm not taking any sort of a short price, which Im gonna get on this one, could be damaged goods, let him win, I won't be getting value anyway.
#9 SMOOTH TANGO: Bayley runner 1-17 on turf but has a decent amount of turf placings. Barn's been going well of late but haven't remembered any turf winners for Bayley. Does get Whitney a plus and should get good odds but prefer others.
#10 DARCY BOY: Has decent turf pedigree but will need more than that to be competitve from the #10 post, an easy throwout.
If the #8 fires race could be a formful outcome, however, if damaged goods, could get chaotic late, could see some nice prices in this one.
RACE 3
#1 MAYOMAST: Very nice turf form at TAM but tries MNR on for size in this one. Should be on the lead early with Benny up but will see some competition early. Has been known to tire late but gets the rail and the trainer is tearing it up at the meet, 67% dirt to turf at the ML odds a definate use in the exotics, could forget to step on the brakes, intriguing longshot possibility on the front end.
#2 BAVARIAN BELLE: Does own a win on the Mountaineer turf course, but will need to step up on beyers to be competitive here, Parker leaves, just looks in way too tough.
#3 BEAUTIFUL VENUE: Beagle runner excels on MNR turf, 4/9 wins, Rex in town, will be in the mix late but expect a real short price.
#4 FIRST ASCENT: Dangerous runner for the LEIGH OFFLUT, barn a sneaky good trainer from Tampa, Garcia sees fit to make the trip, didnt embarrass herself at 116-1 in a G3 race at Tampa one back, should offer some value and at a price this one could surprise, intriguing.
#5 UNSPOKEN WORD: Maker barn comes to town red hot with this charge. But horse might prefer synthetics, which makes this one suspect at a short price. Owns 3 wins on the turf and is obviously one of the ones to beat.
#6 LINDELAAN: Winner in last from the very dangerous Clement barn. Will be coming late, a definate player here just not sure this one will go, don't think Ive ever seen a Clement runner at MNR but if he does go I'll definately be using.
#7 MONTE CRYSTAL: Zantelli runner owns respectable turf wins himself and possess a stalking style that works well here, Whitney a plus, and does own a MNR turf win way down on form. Negative is that he looks to prefer a longer distance and the trainer is 0-7 on the year but the odds will be juicy and would not rule out a fast closing late, will need a few to regress but is a possible upset special!!
#8 SI SI MONNIE AMIE: Blew away the field in the Firecracker last year, including the one of the likely favorites the #3 Beautiful Venue, but has disappointed his public as the favorite in a few races. Looks real tough again and should be a factor, in the mix late.
#9 BAHIA GIRL: Gulfstream runner in a good form but must improve on Beyers to be competitive and with the #10 post at a mile on the turf is destined to be wide or at the very least loses ground, I doubt the trainer makes the trip.
Another highly competitive race that is hard to predict, I would expect a few scratches, which could alter the outcome dramatically, but do like the #1 MAYOMAST and the #8 MONTE CRYSTAL as interesting longshot possibilities.
RACE 4
#1 BERNIE BLUE: Feliciano runner always brings his best efforts to the Mountain, where his reputation proceeds himself. Will be the sentimental favorite and the likely chalk, shows a bullet for this and looks ready. A definate factor.
#2 STRATHAM: Reed runner disappointed in last, has obvious turf merits but that was under a different trainer, might have been sold damaged goods with this one but if runs according to previous turf efforts could be dangerous at a price.
#3 BRICKELL: Upset a stakes race at 50-1 in last at Pimilico, won't get that price this time, in good form and could enjoy a pace collapse late but I prefers others in this race.
#4 BAWDENS: 1/5 on the turf, did close strongly in last at 21-1 to nab 3rd but best form seems behind him beyers will have to step up to be competive here. Will need a front end meltdown of epic proportions to win this.
#5 CRYPTOLIGHT: Martin runner in good form but that was on dirt, lone win at MNR was against easier company and the beyer and winning margin hard from encouraging but I like the Parker factor here and I would expect this horse to run well. I will be seeking value with this charge.
#6 BLUES STREET: Pletcher makes a celebrity appearance to the Mountain and has had some success. Brings a solid runner who one his last at GP but the name might bring down the odds too low, I'll be looking to shoot against.
#7 STOLEN CHEVY: looked like a monster earlier in his career but has not lived up to the earlier expectations since that point, still a solid runner these days, had decent 2nd on MNR turf and if he improves could offer some value to the exotics, but will have to compete with Bernie Blue early, an obvious negative and with no ability to stalk looks unlikely.
#8 GHOST HOUR: Pimlico runner disappointed in last but has some competitive turf efforts that fit here, Martinez makes the trip and stalking style fits well here, should get a decent price and should be a player.
#9 HOT CHILI: Taking a stab on the turf, good luck to the connections!!!
#10 UNBRIDLED WISDOM: Solid Boris runner obviously prefers dirt so Im not sure why this one is entered. Obviously if he runs like he did on dirt last year he's a factor but would not expect that.
#11 CJS MISSLE: earned best beyer of career in last, in way, way too tough here, grossly outclassed and with a dreaded post, a probable scratch anyway.
Expect some scratches as well in this one, looks chalky though if a few of the major players scratch out the longer shots will be elevated, but with the field full would'nt shoot for big prices.
HOPE THIS HELPS!!!! ALWAYS LOOK FOWARD TO THE TURF SEASON AT MNR!! FEEL FREE TO COMMENT ON THE THREAD AND GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE AND HAVE A HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!!!
#1 ALEXIA: Has 2 turf placings on form but that was under a different trainer and under a completely different horse. Trainer obviously a minus and with all the speed to the outside and inherits the rail the horse is the easiest of throwouts.
#2 TOUCH OF JAZZ: Firster on turf for Allen picked the wrong spot for his debut, another horse that will left behind early near the rail. Three postives though, one, Allen runners do well on the turf and usually at nice odds, two, stalking style might help here despite the 4 1/2 furlong trip, more importantly while Golden Missle runners are not known for there turf prowress, his damsire Alphabet Soup is, I would look for this one to improve a race or two down the road in a more sensible spot but a 3rd place finish here would not be out of the question.
#3 RUNNING DOTTIET: Johnston speedster outdueled a good Shaneyfelt horse, Queen Commando, in last. Obviously is quick and one of many candidates to inherit the lead early. Only question is the first time turf experiment. Running Stag runners do suprisingly well, so based on pedigree he should relish the lawn but Johnston does not possess good turf percentages with limited runners, I would look for some value here, risky at a very short price.
#4 DAT'S MA LOOT: Off since 08', no turf pedigree, trainer never wins, you get my point.
#5 FIST OF THE FLEET: Englehart runner won handily in last at FL, has competitive placings on turf but only shows 1 win. Trainer doesn't have great percentages on turf but Parker sees fit, who is a solid turf rider. Will be in the middle of a speedball sandwhich early, looks like a 2nd/3rd place finisher on turf record but if anyone can make this horse a winner Parker can.
#6 BEAUTIFUL RACKET: Scooter runner has 3 placings on turf and should be fit. Drops slightly, Davila takes the call and the two have had some success in the past, Scooter good percentage with turf runners and should be gunning early. Obvious negative is that Parker leaves for the probable favorite the #5. But if you looking for a little bit more value albeit slightly, it would be no big suprise with this runner.
#7 BELLE OF ASCOT: Shaneyfelt runners always should be respected and looks like you will get close ML odds on this one. Though getting the lead will be beneficial, this horse has shown an ability to stalk and win on dirt. Being on the outside of speeds shoulds help. The 0-3 on turf hardly encouraging but that was under a different conditioner. Look for a better outing on the turf this time. A definate player.
#8 GETCHA SAM: Never seen a Akers runner run well on turf, 3L badly outclassed and with with no speed, has no shot, easy throwout.
#9 KATNIK: Fletcher runner was in sharp form when claimed from Shaneyfelt. Experiences the turf for the first time but no promblem here, Kipper Kelly runners do very well on on turf. Horse is quick but might prefer 6 furlongs and Vickers I prefer on a closer, should be off the speeds early, have a feeling this horse will get a wide trip around the turn, hurting its chances late but Fletcher has been winning with horses and getting prices, so we'll keep an eye on this one, just prefer others in this spot.
#10 FOR LOVE OR MONEY: trainer doesn't win on turf or dirt, is 0-2, has no speed, jumps in class, a race filler.
Very tough race with all the speeds, look for the break to play a big role in the outcome of the race, always seems at this distance 1 or 2 of the speeds break bad altering the pace complexion. Wouldn't look for any suprises, the likely chalks all look solid!!!
RACE 2
#1 FROSTBURG: Owns two wins on the Mountaineer sod. Bernindini deadly last year on the turf will all his runners. Owns a win at this distance and should be up there early. If I get any sort of a price on him I have to use just based on the trainers turf reputation.
#2 FOG BUSTER: Horse 1-6 on turf but no worries trainer 26% turf to dirt, has been competitve in higher claimers on dirt, exita a key race in November, could be a possible overlay, Cox good with turf runners.
#3 WESTERN SKYLINE: Cox runner owns a turf win on form but has been sluggish of late and looks to prefer the synthetic surfaces. When right, could be the speed and if able to get loose early could take it to the bank at juicy odds but will have to deal with the #1 Frostburg early. Cox's runner doing real well at the meet, and though the trainers turf stats are ordinary, Parker sees fit, intriguing at a price.
#4 BUDDAH CALLING: exits big time key race, already 4 next out winners, trainer has not run to many on the turf but Buddah runners do okay on the lawn should get a nice price on this one a definate longshot possibility.
#5 TIZ A COUP: Owns 4 wins on the turf, trainers percentage should not be a negative here since she has won with this animal on the sod. Obviously likes the turf and is dangerous but I prefer others in this spot.
#6 MOON IS A STAR: Wolfendale runner has been out of form of late but that was on dirt, has sold wins on turf and should be respected at the windows. However, I'm interested to see how the jock navigates the course, a lot of the new riders at MNR this season are not familiar with the turf course and it can be a bit quirky. And why no Q-MAN, who has excelled on this horse, that might indicate this one may not be ready yet, would like much more at double digit odds.
#7 CHALLENGER: Shaneyfelt runner obviously in good form tries turf for the first time is by Chester House a monster on the turf. Lightly raced runner could be the absolute goods on turf but does step up in class, if the #8 doesn't fire next likely to step up, I'll assume he'll like the turf but let price be my guide.
#8 BILLY ALLEN: All the signs point to this one but I am a bit skeptical here, first of all McDonnell does not excel with turf runners and why would this horse be privately sold off that good form on SA turf. If legit, obviously the horse is the one to beat plus jock/trainer 1 for 1 in tandem but I'm not taking any sort of a short price, which Im gonna get on this one, could be damaged goods, let him win, I won't be getting value anyway.
#9 SMOOTH TANGO: Bayley runner 1-17 on turf but has a decent amount of turf placings. Barn's been going well of late but haven't remembered any turf winners for Bayley. Does get Whitney a plus and should get good odds but prefer others.
#10 DARCY BOY: Has decent turf pedigree but will need more than that to be competitve from the #10 post, an easy throwout.
If the #8 fires race could be a formful outcome, however, if damaged goods, could get chaotic late, could see some nice prices in this one.
RACE 3
#1 MAYOMAST: Very nice turf form at TAM but tries MNR on for size in this one. Should be on the lead early with Benny up but will see some competition early. Has been known to tire late but gets the rail and the trainer is tearing it up at the meet, 67% dirt to turf at the ML odds a definate use in the exotics, could forget to step on the brakes, intriguing longshot possibility on the front end.
#2 BAVARIAN BELLE: Does own a win on the Mountaineer turf course, but will need to step up on beyers to be competitive here, Parker leaves, just looks in way too tough.
#3 BEAUTIFUL VENUE: Beagle runner excels on MNR turf, 4/9 wins, Rex in town, will be in the mix late but expect a real short price.
#4 FIRST ASCENT: Dangerous runner for the LEIGH OFFLUT, barn a sneaky good trainer from Tampa, Garcia sees fit to make the trip, didnt embarrass herself at 116-1 in a G3 race at Tampa one back, should offer some value and at a price this one could surprise, intriguing.
#5 UNSPOKEN WORD: Maker barn comes to town red hot with this charge. But horse might prefer synthetics, which makes this one suspect at a short price. Owns 3 wins on the turf and is obviously one of the ones to beat.
#6 LINDELAAN: Winner in last from the very dangerous Clement barn. Will be coming late, a definate player here just not sure this one will go, don't think Ive ever seen a Clement runner at MNR but if he does go I'll definately be using.
#7 MONTE CRYSTAL: Zantelli runner owns respectable turf wins himself and possess a stalking style that works well here, Whitney a plus, and does own a MNR turf win way down on form. Negative is that he looks to prefer a longer distance and the trainer is 0-7 on the year but the odds will be juicy and would not rule out a fast closing late, will need a few to regress but is a possible upset special!!
#8 SI SI MONNIE AMIE: Blew away the field in the Firecracker last year, including the one of the likely favorites the #3 Beautiful Venue, but has disappointed his public as the favorite in a few races. Looks real tough again and should be a factor, in the mix late.
#9 BAHIA GIRL: Gulfstream runner in a good form but must improve on Beyers to be competitive and with the #10 post at a mile on the turf is destined to be wide or at the very least loses ground, I doubt the trainer makes the trip.
Another highly competitive race that is hard to predict, I would expect a few scratches, which could alter the outcome dramatically, but do like the #1 MAYOMAST and the #8 MONTE CRYSTAL as interesting longshot possibilities.
RACE 4
#1 BERNIE BLUE: Feliciano runner always brings his best efforts to the Mountain, where his reputation proceeds himself. Will be the sentimental favorite and the likely chalk, shows a bullet for this and looks ready. A definate factor.
#2 STRATHAM: Reed runner disappointed in last, has obvious turf merits but that was under a different trainer, might have been sold damaged goods with this one but if runs according to previous turf efforts could be dangerous at a price.
#3 BRICKELL: Upset a stakes race at 50-1 in last at Pimilico, won't get that price this time, in good form and could enjoy a pace collapse late but I prefers others in this race.
#4 BAWDENS: 1/5 on the turf, did close strongly in last at 21-1 to nab 3rd but best form seems behind him beyers will have to step up to be competive here. Will need a front end meltdown of epic proportions to win this.
#5 CRYPTOLIGHT: Martin runner in good form but that was on dirt, lone win at MNR was against easier company and the beyer and winning margin hard from encouraging but I like the Parker factor here and I would expect this horse to run well. I will be seeking value with this charge.
#6 BLUES STREET: Pletcher makes a celebrity appearance to the Mountain and has had some success. Brings a solid runner who one his last at GP but the name might bring down the odds too low, I'll be looking to shoot against.
#7 STOLEN CHEVY: looked like a monster earlier in his career but has not lived up to the earlier expectations since that point, still a solid runner these days, had decent 2nd on MNR turf and if he improves could offer some value to the exotics, but will have to compete with Bernie Blue early, an obvious negative and with no ability to stalk looks unlikely.
#8 GHOST HOUR: Pimlico runner disappointed in last but has some competitive turf efforts that fit here, Martinez makes the trip and stalking style fits well here, should get a decent price and should be a player.
#9 HOT CHILI: Taking a stab on the turf, good luck to the connections!!!
#10 UNBRIDLED WISDOM: Solid Boris runner obviously prefers dirt so Im not sure why this one is entered. Obviously if he runs like he did on dirt last year he's a factor but would not expect that.
#11 CJS MISSLE: earned best beyer of career in last, in way, way too tough here, grossly outclassed and with a dreaded post, a probable scratch anyway.
Expect some scratches as well in this one, looks chalky though if a few of the major players scratch out the longer shots will be elevated, but with the field full would'nt shoot for big prices.
HOPE THIS HELPS!!!! ALWAYS LOOK FOWARD TO THE TURF SEASON AT MNR!! FEEL FREE TO COMMENT ON THE THREAD AND GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE AND HAVE A HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!!!