Derby Thoughts

[PaceAdvantage]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/Kentucky_Derby_2003.htm

[PaceAdvantage]

I would just like to point out that my data listed Peace Rules, Funny Cide and Empire Maker as my top 3.....also, based on the odds line, tabbed only Peace Rules and Funny Cide as overlays....

Bout time I hit a winner! LOL

[PaceAdvantage]

I just updated my par times the night before I ran the Derby through my numbers....I use Dave Schwartz's par times....

I see my predicted running time for Funny Cide was 2:01.90 and the actual running time was 2:01.19....not bad....I actually had Peace Rules winning the race in 2:01.20, so there you go....LOL

[JustRalph]

Nice Work Pa.......

[WINMANWIN]

Good Job P.A. as that N.Y. BRED shocked many, including me !!
Funny thing about FUNNY CIDE is in the NEW YORK post
FUNNY CIDE and EMPIRE MAKER Picture appears from the Wood Memorial. In bold print The caption reads " FUNNY CIDE HAS SHOT TO UPSET EMPIRE" Ray kerrison the noted N.Y. post handicapper
writes an Nice article about FUNNY CIDE, and his owners and trainer. To the right of the article HIS Selections appear, Ray
doesn't have Funny in his top 3. Even RAY KERRISON must
think that's pretty FUNNY !!!:eek:

[Shacopate]

Your top three makes up the trifecta, very impressive. That's impressive in any race, but in the freaking KENTUCKY DERBY?

WOW!!!

We all know how hard that is.

Outstanding job.

Although I didn't have the tri, I was lucky enough to settle on Funny Cide for the win. (Sir Cherokee, my first pick)

I didn't think that Empire Maker was "toying" with Funny Cide in the Wood. To me, he looked like a green horse (throwing his head after making the lead). Funny Cide lost at least two lenghts on the first turn when New York Hero came wide. He showed his gameness by cutting into the margin at the end.

I use Bris figures and the average winning late speed for a Derby winner is 100. Funny Cide had exceded par in three of his last five races, Empire Maker had exceded par in TWO of his last five races.

And the race was decided late.

Funny Cide also has three points in the fourth spot of his dosage profile. STRONG.

Oh well, It was a great day. Congratulations on nailing the tri.

[JustRalph]

I think I am going back to BRIS data. Equisim with BRIS Data had the Trifecta cold using Bris Data (simulator) The TSN data was a little different. Equisim also had 3 out of the first 4 last year in the Derby. Including WE to win it.

The Bris data was pretty damn close in the visual running of the sim. It ran almost exactly like the race. I am re-thinking the difference in the data. I used think it wasn't much different.

[PaceAdvantage]

Lots of people had Funny Cide...damn horse was 15-1 on the tote board at YouBet when the race went off....announcer on TV said he was 19-1!! as they crossed the wire...and yet he pays off at 12.5-1.....

Very strange if you ask me...

[azmike]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Lots of people had Funny Cide...damn horse was 15-1 on the tote board at YouBet when the race went off....announcer on TV said he was 19-1!! as they crossed the wire...and yet he pays off at 12.5-1.....

Very strange if you ask me...

I agree. When I bet him (is he still a "He") it was 15-1 on youbet. Then I walked in to the next room to watch the big screen and the announcer says 19-1, I was feeling pretty good. But, hey, still a nice hit. I had the exacta, didn't bet the win or tri.

[PaceAdvantage]

I just finished watching the Derby again....Durkin mentioned he was 12-1 as they thundered down the stretch towards the finish...so I'll take his word for it over the TV folks...lol

[JustRalph]

I thought this was a pretty good race call by Durkin. No slip ups really and he made it pretty exciting without going overboard.

[Richard]

I used two programs,SNAPCAPPER and EASY CAPPER to handicap the Derby.SNAPCAPPER'S top 3 picks were EMPIRE MAKER,FUNNY CIDE,and PEACE RULES.EASY CAPPER'S TOP 3 were FUNNY CIDE,EMPIRE MAKER,and PEACE RULES.Both programs picked the trifecta box but I just bet FUNNY CIDE to win.Glad I did.Preakness-wise,FC is up to the distance and it looks like he's up to the pace.We'll see.

[Speed Figure]

These are my Figures for the Derby. My Par is 101/109/108

Funny Cide 117/115/114

Empire Maker 113/113/112

Peace Rules 120/116/112

Atswhatimtalknabout 104/106/112

Eye Of The Tiger 109

Buddy Gil 108

Outta Here 107

Ten Cents A Shine 106

Ten Most Wanted 106

Domstic Dispute 104

Scrimshaw 103

Offlee Wild 102

Supah Blitz 96

Indian Express 94

Lone Star Sky 93

Brancusi 120/108/92

TV Sprints 8

TV Routes 6

TV Turf Routes -3

[WINMANWIN]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
I just finished watching the Derby again....Durkin mentioned he was 12-1 as they thundered down the stretch towards the finish...so I'll take his word for it over the TV folks...lol

I heard today on the N.Y. OTB Show, That some bettor
placed an $200,000 WIN bet on FUNNY CIDE with 3 to 4 mins
to post.:eek:

[PaceAdvantage]

With the way his odds were fluctuating (at least on my toteboard), I'm not surprised to hear this....

[GARY Z]

f.c. odds were between15-18 :1 throughout the
day inclusing the last 6 minutes..in the last few flashes the
odds dropped to 15,13,11 and 9 :1,,and in
the last minute rose to final odds..
i watched the race @ club med(med) and as previously stated
loved this horse(i didn't.however create this underlay)
ps..thorograph released this horse as a value bet,along
with brancusi
note:this is a winstar bred horse...

[JustRalph]

I think that Funny Cide's sire was or is partially owned by Russell Reineman, who was the minority owner of War Emblem after he sold to Tbred corp. Distorted Humor (Funny Cide's sire) and War Emblem's sire are both at Winstar if the web page is correct. I think between the two horses (Funny Cide and War Emblem) they were both purchased at auction for less than $50,000 between them. If my memory is right they both went for around $25,000. That has to make some of these big time owners cringe when they are attending the sales and spending half a million for decent horses.

[GARY Z]

interesting..
that's why this game is so great!!