What's the more powerful angle statistically?

[Oaklawn]

2nd off a layoff or 3rd off a layoff? Or does it only depend on the trainer?

[Greyfox]

What's the most powerful angle statistically?
Don't Bet.

[fmolf]

2nd off a layoff or 3rd off a layoff? Or does it only depend on the trainer?
i think it depends on the trainer and also how long the layoff was .....a lot of times with longer layoffs a horse will regress a bit in the second race off..then run a new top third race off.....especially powerful if horse battled in a stretch duel in first race back

[Overlay]

For sprinters, both Quirin and Nunamaker at the time of their studies found a progressive improvement in impact values up through the fourth start (i.e, third start better than second; fourth start better than third) after a layoff of 45 days or more, provided the horse didn't overexert itself too soon after coming back with a driving finish from the stretch call to the wire (either leading or trailing by one length or less at both of the last two calls, or with a clear lead at the stretch call, but then winning or losing in a photo finish).

For routers, Quirin found that the ideal pattern was to race twice in sprints as tighteners after a layoff before attempting a route. Such horses did better when routing in their third, fourth, and fifth starts after the layoff than horses that came back immediately in a route race, or that had only one sprint race as a tightener. Nunamaker found impact values of .91, .88, .96, and 1.01 for routers in their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th starts, respectively, after a layoff. Although he didn't include narrative on routers coming back in sprints vs. routes, these values would seem to me to indicate the same general pattern, with routers that tried to do "too much, too soon" in their first start after a layoff experiencing a drop-off in performance in their next start.

[Tom]

MY best are:

3rd off layoff, showed something in either of the first two, back figures make the horse a contender today

MSW to MdClm if it showed anyting in th MSW races

Class drop, rider switch, back figs

And a new one, fast gaining my attention, was presented by our own Mountainman in his HP Mag article - horses that last won a nw1,6 race, have been running in nw2,6 or higher since, then drops back to a nw1,6 today.
I am looking for this type of race every day now - tip o' the hat to the author for a really good article. :ThmbUp:

[Oaklawn]

For sprinters, both Quirin and Nunamaker at the time of their studies found a progressive improvement in impact values up through the fourth start (i.e, third start better than second; fourth start better than third) after a layoff of 45 days or more, provided the horse didn't overexert itself too soon after coming back with a driving finish from the stretch call to the wire (either leading or trailing by one length or less at both of the last two calls, or with a clear lead at the stretch call, but then winning or losing in a photo finish).

For routers, Quirin found that the ideal pattern was to race twice in sprints as tighteners after a layoff before attempting a route. Such horses did better when routing in their third, fourth, and fifth starts after the layoff than horses that came back immediately in a route race, or that had only one sprint race as a tightener. Nunamaker found impact values of .91, .88, .96, and 1.01 for routers in their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th starts, respectively, after a layoff. Although he didn't include narrative on routers coming back in sprints vs. routes, these values would seem to me to indicate the same general pattern, with routers that tried to do "too much, too soon" in their first start after a layoff experiencing a drop-off in performance in their next start.

Thank you Overlay. Exactly the type of info I was looking for.

[fmhealth]

Tom, interesting thoughts on MSW to MCL. Perhaps we all should fine-tune our thinking here.

http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2009/05/21/sports/horseracing/doc4a1628dd74b54505029983.txt

[bobphilo]

i think it depends on the trainer and also how long the layoff was .....a lot of times with longer layoffs a horse will regress a bit in the second race off..then run a new top third race off.....especially powerful if horse battled in a stretch duel in first race back

Another thing that depends on the trainers MO is the meaning of a class drop after a layoff. In general, it's considered a bad sign and often is, but with some others it's a sign that it's a go.

Also with 2YOs and even young 3YOs, class is only significant as a sign of trainer intention rather than real quality of the race.

Bob

[fmolf]

Another thing that depends on the trainers MO is the meaning of a class drop after a layoff. In general, it's considered a bad sign and often is, but with some others it's a sign that it's a go.

Also with 2YOs and even young 3YOs, class is only significant as a sign of trainer intention rather than real quality of the race.

Bob
you may have wanted to quote tom about the class drops?though i do agree with you that you need to determine if it is a drop to search for a winning level(msw-mcl)or a drop off a conditioning race.....both positive drops... or a negative drop where the horse is in to be sold

[JustRalph]

2nd off a layoff or 3rd off a layoff? Or does it only depend on the trainer?


I have been watching you post this kind of stuff for a few weeks now

I really think you should look into Jcapper............ right up your alley.........from what I read............so far............

just a suggestion.............the truth is out there........ :lol:

[Oaklawn]

I have been watching you post this kind of stuff for a few weeks now

I really think you should look into Jcapper............ right up your alley.........from what I read............so far............

just a suggestion.............the truth is out there........ :lol:

Ralph,
I am busy reading your book recommendation at the moment! (Exotic Betting). Very interesting. I can't believe the bankroll the guy uses, but it makes so much sense. I've never been known as technically savvy, so I'm hesitant about getting software at the moment. From what I have read, if you can't handicap on pen and paper, software won't be much help, and frankly, that's where I'm at right now! Once I feel like I'm at least betting smart and got a feel for what is working, then I'll likely jump in and start using software.

[Bruddah]

I have been watching you post this kind of stuff for a few weeks now

I really think you should look into Jcapper............ right up your alley.........from what I read............so far............

just a suggestion.............the truth is out there........ :lol:

Ralph, you can leed them to water but you can't make them drink. You gave the kid excellent advice about JCapper, He is just not ready. :ThmbUp:

[Easy Goer]

A couple of favorite angles of mine that have given me positive bankroll over the years are as follows.

Turn-back in Distance, ie: Mile or further to 6 or 7 Furlongs, these type horses almost always get ignored in the betting, meaning they never go off as the Fav & they often run well at a nice price.

Blinkers-On for the 1st or 2nd time, especially in Maiden or Alw races, also note that a lot of these horses will run 2nd at big odds, notice the 9th race yesterday @ Bel the #7-ran 2nd at odds of like $40-1.

Hidden Drops in Class, like when a horse drops into a Alw after runing OTM in a Stakes, or an Alw horse who ran OTM dropping into a Claiming Race.

It takes a little time to run thru the pp's looking for horses that qualify to fit these guidelines, but trust me over time you will find that its worth it to take the time out looking. Good Luck to All.