Another good 'take' on the RA/Belmont

[W2G]

Run, Rachel, Run

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=4185605

[PaceAdvantage]

From what I've been hearing all week, it sounds as if they aren't going to run. Hopefully I'm wrong, and as we all know, it wouldn't be the first time...

[sammy the sage]

from a horse lover's viewpoint she shouldn't run...

from a betting investment viewpoint...would love to see her run..so as to BET AGAINST!

[lamboguy]

rachel is only going to run in the belmont if she is 110%. otherwise she will face stake mares along the way to the eventual goal of running in the breeders cup.

mr. jackson is not pressing the issue to run belmont. if steve likes the way she eats and trains you still might see her there though.

[joanied]

I read several articles this morning, and can't recall which one it was that said Steve A beleives the Preakness took too much out of RA and , here I quote: "wants nothing to do with the Belmont"....but will wait until her work on Monday to decide one way or another...
makes me wonder if Steve is against running her in the Belmont, but Jackson feels he can't back out...would Jackson over rule his trainer?
I would hope not...as much as I'd love for her to run, it'd be a travesty of great proportions for her to run and finish off the board...it's excellent that Jackson is such a sporting man and loves to give the fans what they want...but IMO, that is a poor reason to run a horse, any horse.

I wish Monday was here and gone already...I have such mixed feelings about her running or not, I won't be able to make up my own mind until she works.

[Cratos]

Run, Rachel, Run

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=4185605

I don’t know how good Rachel Alexandra is or how good she will be, but for Bill Finley to write that she is “the best 3-year-old in America,” leaves me wondering who numbers 2 and 3 is?

Quality Road was the early favorite in the KY Derby and when he was fell by injury I Want Revenge became the favorite which defaulted to Pioneer of the Nile at post time because I Want Revenge was declared out of the Derby due to injury.

Therefore with a healthy Quality Road, a healthy I want Revenge, a healthy Rachel Alexandra all running in this year’s Travers would the best 3yo be determined?

Maybe, but if an outsider come out of the clouds and win the Travers should all of the above horses be entered and run then what? We now wouldn’t have just 1, 2, and 3; we would have 1, 2, 3, and 4.

What I am getting at is that it take a body of work to determine which horse should rein at the top of the heap and thus far there hasn’t been a horse with such resume.

And to start putting Rachel Alexandra in the class with Ruffian (as Bill Finley did in his article) is pure folly. Ruffian won at distances from 5 ½ F to 1 ½ M. She won her first 10 races by an average margin of 8 ½ lengths (an incredible 1.42 seconds average).

Until Rachel Alexandra approaches those sorts of accomplishments the discussion of comparison should be muted. Please don’t say Rachael Alexandra over the “boys” is the equalizer because it is not.

Many fillies/mares have won against the ‘boys,” but never came close to Ruffian’s achievements.

[WinterTriangle]

makes me wonder if Steve is against running her in the Belmont, but Jackson feels he can't back out...would Jackson over rule his trainer?

Back out of what? :) They made no announcement that RA would run in the Belmont, so there's nothing to "back out of", is there?


Aside from love for Rachel, Jackson's got a $10 million investment to protect, as well as future racing and breeding. Who would chance having a non-recuperated Rachel running a race and breaking down, a world-class PR nightmare.



We are waiting to see about recuperation. Horses have different recuperation times, depending on the nature of their last race and what it took out of them. Do fillies take longer to recuperate after running against the boys? .....or, is it a function of what kind of race a horse ran? I don't have data on this, but I will go with the latter, although its probably a combination of both.

MTB was back on the track bouncing around 3rd day after Preakness after 10 hour travel. Obviously, he bounces back well, but but but --- he didn't have to run in front against Big Drama the whole way in the Preakness, either.:)

BTW, I'm not willing to make one "better" than the other. Both of them are really amazing, given what we've witnessed, just in different ways. MTB shows incredibile bravery (what Mike Smith and Calvin said about him, shooting thru that little opening with Borel and fearless in the Preakness. ) and resiliancy. Rachel Alexandra is a filly is in a class of her own. For me, no way to make a true *comparison*, because there's too many pros and cons for every method.....at least when talking about 3 year olds. Perhaps we can make that assessment later on.....they both have more to accomplish. MTB may come in last in the Belmont. Rachel may lose to Zenyatta.

(What Cratos said: "What I am getting at is that it take a body of work to determine which horse should rein at the top of the heap and thus far there hasn’t been a horse with such resume.")


"Greatness" has many definitions, or seems to, depending on who you ask.

[joanied]

I don’t know how good Rachel Alexandra is or how good she will be, but for Bill Finley to write that she is “the best 3-year-old in America,” leaves me wondering who numbers 2 and 3 is?

Quality Road was the early favorite in the KY Derby and when he was fell by injury I Want Revenge became the favorite which defaulted to Pioneer of the Nile at post time because I Want Revenge was declared out of the Derby due to injury.

Therefore with a healthy Quality Road, a healthy I want Revenge, a healthy Rachel Alexandra all running in this year’s Travers would the best 3yo be determined?

Maybe, but if an outsider come out of the clouds and win the Travers should all of the above horses be entered and run then what? We now wouldn’t have just 1, 2, and 3; we would have 1, 2, 3, and 4.

What I am getting at is that it take a body of work to determine which horse should rein at the top of the heap and thus far there hasn’t been a horse with such resume.

And to start putting Rachel Alexandra in the class with Ruffian (as Bill Finley did in his article) is pure folly. Ruffian won at distances from 5 ½ F to 1 ½ M. She won her first 10 races by an average margin of 8 ½ lengths (an incredible 1.42 seconds average).

Until Rachel Alexandra approaches those sorts of accomplishments the discussion of comparison should be muted. Please don’t say Rachael Alexandra over the “boys” is the equalizer because it is not.

Many fillies/mares have won against the ‘boys,” but never came close to Ruffian’s achievements.



At this point in time for the 3 yr olds....every week there's a different best of the bunch...it's too early in the year to proclaim any horse as the best 3 yr old...and races like the Travers are too far away to contemplate...as for comparing Rachel to Ruffian...that remains to be seen....one cannot take what some one else says as gospel...even someone like Finley...maybe he does beleive Rachel is the 2nd coming of Ruffian...guess he's entitled to that opinion... and remember, since everyone seems to think a great horse needs to win outside of it's home base...yes, it's been mentioned here many times..."but, he never raced out of CA, or NY or wherever"....Ruffian raced only one time away from Belmont/Aqueduct...when she ran at Monmouth. No doubt Ruffian is safe as being considered 'Great'...because she was...in fact, I was at the rail for the CCAO to watch our filly, Equal Change, finish a gallant 2nd to the Great One...I saw Ruffian, I was there for all her races except the Monmouth race...including the damned Match Race with my 'old friend' Foolish Pleasure...
I have not once mentioned that Rachel is even equal to Ruffian...that big black filly was one in a million.
:)

[joanied]

Back out of what? :) They made no announcement that RA would run in the Belmont, so there's nothing to "back out of", is there?
OK...ya got me there, he didn't say he would run her....but we all know that Jackson is a great sportsman and that the guys at Belmont are kissin' butt to get him there with Rachel...but, yeah, he never did actually say it:)

Aside from love for Rachel, Jackson's got a $10 million investment to protect, as well as future racing and breeding. Who would chance having a non-recuperated Rachel running a race and breaking down, a world-class PR nightmare.
That's a no-brainer, WT...even if Jackson had said she's going to NY...if the filly isn't 110%...you just don't run...period:)


We are waiting to see about recuperation. Horses have different recuperation times, depending on the nature of their last race and what it took out of them. Do fillies take longer to recuperate after running against the boys? .....or, is it a function of what kind of race a horse ran? I don't have data on this, but I will go with the latter, although its probably a combination of both.

MTB was back on the track bouncing around 3rd day after Preakness after 10 hour travel. Obviously, he bounces back well, but but but --- he didn't have to run in front against Big Drama the whole way in the Preakness, either.:)
Yep...we are waiting, and it's driving me crazy:faint: ...she's been galloping and from what I saw on TV...she's strong as ever...we'll know Monday morning... I swear, I really think MTB has a large heart...he sure did come back fast...but, as you said, in the Derby he really ran for what...3/8ths...and it was sooooooo easy...in the Preakness, I think he had ro race a little harder for 1/8th...but didn't have a hard race in all...still, seeing him crow hoppin' & bouncing around after those two races...well, IMO...amazing!!
BTW, I'm not willing to make one "better" than the other. Both of them are really amazing, given what we've witnessed, just in different ways. MTB shows incredibile bravery (what Mike Smith and Calvin said about him, shooting thru that little opening with Borel and fearless in the Preakness. ) and resiliancy. Rachel Alexandra is a filly is in a class of her own. For me, no way to make a true *comparison*, because there's too many pros and cons for every method.....at least when talking about 3 year olds. Perhaps we can make that assessment later on.....they both have more to accomplish. MTB may come in last in the Belmont. Rachel may lose to Zenyatta.
Absolutely:)
(What Cratos said: "What I am getting at is that it take a body of work to determine which horse should rein at the top of the heap and thus far there hasn’t been a horse with such resume.")
Absolutley:)

"Greatness" has many definitions, or seems to, depending on who you ask.
True:)

Tah-dah:jump:

PS...55 minutes to :jump: Zenyatta (my time)

[andymays]

On the Roger Stein show this morning he reported that against Asmussens wishes the owner of Rachel wants to run her in the Belmont!

[joanied]

On the Roger Stein show this morning he reported that against Asmussens wishes the owner of Rachel wants to run her in the Belmont!

OHOH...that is exactly what I mentioned in one of my posts about this...that if Steve A thought she shouldn't run...would Jackson over rule him...this might get interesting...but, I suppose if rachel doesn't work up to par tomorrow morning, Jackson would have to use his best judgment and bow to his trainers desision not to run?

[PaceAdvantage]

On the Roger Stein show this morning he reported that against Asmussens wishes the owner of Rachel wants to run her in the Belmont!This surprises me. Not that there might some conflict between owner and trainer, but that the Asmussen/Jackson camp would allow it to somehow escape into the public realm.

I always thought they ran a tighter ship than that...

[andymays]

This surprises me. Not that there might some conflict between owner and trainer, but that the Asmussen/Jackson camp would allow it to somehow escape into the public realm.

I always thought they ran a tighter ship than that...

Roger Stein interviewed Asmussen a while back so he may have a relationship with him. The archived show from this morning is probably up and he talkes about this subject early in the show. I was a little surprised by the announcement especially since prior to today Roger Stein had said there was no way on earth she would run in the Belmont. Anyway it's worth listening to and the consensus among Roger and his two compatriots was that she would lose the race if she ran. Their reasoning was mainly because of the "too many races in 5 weeks" thing!

www.rogerstein.com

[PaceAdvantage]

Roger Stein interviewed Asmussen a while back so he may have a relationship with him. The archived show from this morning is probably up and he talkes about this subject early in the show. I was a little surprised by the announcement especially since prior to today Roger Stein had said there was no way on earth she would run in the Belmont. Anyway it's worth listening to and the consensus among Roger and his two compatriots was that she would lose the race if she ran. Their reasoning was mainly because of the "too many races in 5 weeks" thing!

www.rogerstein.com (http://www.rogerstein.com)All this speculation is silly. How these people can conclude that there is no way she will run, or that there has been too many races in five weeks...blah blah blah...

These are probably the same people who crapped their pants when they learned she would run in the Preakness "Oh my...you can't do that to the poor filly! Why, she'll simply break!"

Hopefully, with the crackdown on steroids, we can get away from this intense "babying of the breed."

I've asked this question before on here, but I'll ask it again...why does it take WEEKS for a horse to recover from running less than two minutes in one race?

[WinterTriangle]

I've asked this question before on here, but I'll ask it again...why does it take WEEKS for a horse to recover from running less than two minutes in one race?

Pace: Not sure what, or who you are asking. Don't think it could be one size fits all, though?

So are you asking for data about muscle fatigue & recovery in horses? About the way muscles on a horse copes with lactic acid, and what kind of post race care is necessary to keep this at an improving level for SPEED ( which would differ from what is necessary to *stay* over a long route distance) and stuff like that?


Recovery from a 6F race---or from a race at a route distance a horse has *never* run in their lives? Or about a specific filly coming off the Oaks (fastest effort of the year in a route stakes by a 3-year-old) who then runs a fast, long-route Preakness against males a few weeks later? Or about 3 year olds or 5 year olds?

Do you want "opinion" from handicappers (who may not ride, own or train horses).....or hard data from a hands-on trainer or equine veterinarian?

I have an veterinarian friend who runs an equine clinic. Personally, I would be most comfortable asking somebody with those credentials. What a horse does every day leading up to a race, and after a race, is something many people who follow racing don't have first-hand knowledge of. They aren't in the barn.

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

I've asked this question before on here, but I'll ask it again...why does it take WEEKS for a horse to recover from running less than two minutes in one race?

Standardbreds,even the best ones,commonly run every week.

[rastajenk]

In big races with heats they run two or three times a day!

[WinterTriangle]

So.... trotting/pacing is the same as galloping/running. And thoroughbreds and standardbreds are completely comparable?

[46zilzal]

I've asked this question before on here, but I'll ask it again...why does it take WEEKS for a horse to recover from running less than two minutes in one race?
Go back to the barns when they return and the horse will tell you a lot about how much it took out of them and fillies are the most fragile usually showing the signs of stress by going off their feed. When this occurs over a three or four race period they get noticeably thinner and "tucked up."

Musculoskeletal stress in accumulative and collagen replacement into those over extended ligaments and tendon sheaths takes time to repair. Horses often get small cuts from flying debris on the track and they are very subject to GI stresses from racing that take time to calm down. That TWO minutes of extreme stress is in addition to the stresses of workouts as well: bone fatigue (particularly since the bone of today's T-bred is so fragile) is also accumulative.

Fillies traditionally can run about three hard contests in a row before it begins to show signs that the trainer should listen to. That is for those who WILL Listen and not the D. Wayne's of the world.

[46zilzal]

So.... trotting/pacing is the same as galloping/running. And thoroughbreds and standardbreds are completely comparable?
NOT even close.

Force = mass x acceleration. You have heavier animals going a lot faster as compared to the ADMITTEDLY more sound standard bred horse.

[PaceAdvantage]

Go back to the barns when they return and the horse will tell you a lot about how much it took out of them and fillies are the most fragile usually showing the signs of stress by going off their feed. When this occurs over a three or four race period they get noticeably thinner and "tucked up."

Musculoskeletal stress in accumulative and collagen replacement into those over extended ligaments and tendon sheaths takes time to repair. Horses often get small cuts from flying debris on the track and they are very subject to GI stresses from racing that take time to calm down. That TWO minutes of extreme stress is in addition to the stresses of workouts as well: bone fatigue (particularly since the bone of today's T-bred is so fragile) is also accumulative.

Fillies traditionally can run about three hard contests in a row before it begins to show signs that the trainer should listen to. That is for those who WILL Listen and not the D. Wayne's of the world.This is all no-brainer stuff. If a horse is off his or her feed after a race, obviously something isn't right.

I'm talking about the normal horse and the normal race, which pretty much makes up a vast majority of the population.

Also, can you point me to the medical studies that document just how much more fragile the bones are of today's T-breds as compared to 10, 20 and/or 30 years ago?

Surely such elementary studies must exist.

[WinterTriangle]

Thank you, 46.

Am I the only one concerned about Calvin's remarks:

""She was catching a heat stroke and I was very concerned about her. I wanted to get her back and get some water on her. My biggest concern was the horse, because I know she's the greatest thing in the world and she was getting overheated. She struggled so much in the race, and when I pulled her up she started acting a little funny. I know that because I know her like the back of my hand. She never did that before. Once we got water on her, she was fine."--Calvin Borel discussing the aftermath of the Preakness with Reuters

I also thought they whisked her to--- and away from----the winners circle pretty fast for a TC race awards? Did anyone else think so.

Has nothing to do with gender. Or do you think Calvin was totally off base saying something like that?

[Cratos]

This is all no-brainer stuff. If a horse is off his or her feed after a race, obviously something isn't right.

I'm talking about the normal horse and the normal race, which pretty much makes up a vast majority of the population.

Also, can you point me to the medical studies that document just how much more fragile the bones are of today's T-breds as compared to 10, 20 and/or 30 years ago?

Surely such elementary studies must exist.

I am not a veterinarian scientist nor am I a medical doctor, but from what I understand about physics and it concepts applied to both thoroughbred and standardbred horses you can see from a stress point of view the average thoroughbred pound the surface with about a 300Lb force compared to standard bred about 220Lb force.

The stress from the surface pounding by a thoroughbred is more immediate to the thoroughbred’s musculoskeletal structure than the standardbred and with severe consequences.

[cj]

I am not a veterinarian scientist nor am I a medical doctor, but ...

Did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

[46zilzal]

If you follow ANY patients who have been on steroids for an extended amount of time, a MAJOR side effect is vertebral compressions fractures as BONES ARE WEAKENED.

Wolf's law states that living bone is in a constant state of flux based upon mini stresses to it (one of the reasons the astronauts loose bone mass when in orbit is that these stresses are taken away in a no gravity environment) or "surf knots" over the top of the tibia were the result of constant intermittent pressure over time. We know this is the result, partly, to the low level inflammatory response of tissue under pressures and the immediate repair process. (Another example is that you can usually tell by looking at the medial side of the distal interphalangeal joint of one's middle finger as to what had they use to write as that margin is hypertrophies as compared to the non-dominant hand).

Now take away this low level inflammatory phase from the remodeling of bone and what have you left?: weakened bones typical of the juiced horses of the current era.

[joanied]

Did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

:lol: :lol: :lol: that is hilarious:ThmbUp:

[joanied]

Thank you, 46.

Am I the only one concerned about Calvin's remarks:

""She was catching a heat stroke and I was very concerned about her. I wanted to get her back and get some water on her. My biggest concern was the horse, because I know she's the greatest thing in the world and she was getting overheated. She struggled so much in the race, and when I pulled her up she started acting a little funny. I know that because I know her like the back of my hand. She never did that before. Once we got water on her, she was fine."--Calvin Borel discussing the aftermath of the Preakness with Reuters

I also thought they whisked her to--- and away from----the winners circle pretty fast for a TC race awards? Did anyone else think so.

Has nothing to do with gender. Or do you think Calvin was totally off base saying something like that?

:ThmbUp: 46's post was excellent.

It's really hard to say just how much time a horse needs to rest...there are way to many variables to consider, I won't make a list because they are all obvious to anyone into racing... and being a filly or a colt doesn't matter...every horse is different, and individual (DUH)...and needs to be treated as such.
WinterT's quote from that interview kinda surprised me....I hadn't heard Calvin saying that about Rachel...her getting heat stroke...really no surprise with the humidity on Preakness Day...but, I beleive what he says...you could see that Calvin was not his usual self after that race...he tried to whoop it up, but it came up short...he was only concerned with his filly and her well being...
I watched the race again and the follow up...and once they took her tack off you can see she was blowing hard...wish I could have seen if she had a crease down her back...but, in my very humble opinion...she looked tired....on the way to the winner circle, her ears were flopping around too...another sign of fatigue.

I couldn't wait for the announcment about whether or not she'll go in the Belmont...now I can wait...it's good that they are taking their time (except for the jockey problem, which I guess will come to an end today when Woolley announces his rider)... Rachels connections need a little more time to evaluate her condition...and that's OK with me...I think we all want the same thing...a healthy, happy Rachel A.

WT...thanks for posting that quote...sheds a little more light on all this.

[Cratos]

Did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

No I didn't because I could not afford it, but my stay at the Red Roof Inn went quite well. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

If you follow ANY patients who have been on steroids for an extended amount of time, a MAJOR side effect is vertebral compressions fractures as BONES ARE WEAKENED.

Wolf's law states that living bone is in a constant state of flux based upon mini stresses to it (one of the reasons the astronauts loose bone mass when in orbit is that these stresses are taken away in a no gravity environment) or "surf knots" over the top of the tibia were the result of constant intermittent pressure over time. We know this is the result, partly, to the low level inflammatory response of tissue under pressures and the immediate repair process. (Another example is that you can usually tell by looking at the medial side of the distal interphalangeal joint of one's middle finger as to what had they use to write as that margin is hypertrophies as compared to the non-dominant hand).

Now take away this low level inflammatory phase from the remodeling of bone and what have you left?: weakened bones typical of the juiced horses of the current era.So is your answer "I don't know of any such studies?"

[Imriledup]

NOT even close.

Force = mass x acceleration. You have heavier animals going a lot faster as compared to the ADMITTEDLY more sound standard bred horse.

The biggest difference is that Standardbreds don't carry 110 lbs on their backs.

[46zilzal]

So is your answer "I don't know of any such studies?"
hundreds in both human and equine medicine: steroids reduce bone density, Find a Physicians Desk Reference and it is listed as a side effect on all of the corticosteriods. Clandestine and overt use did not occure 30 years ago.

http://courses.washington.edu/bonephys/opsteroid.html

[Hank]

A big factor also, is that a speed like RA runs hard the entire race,particularly when facing pressure early and then holding the closers safe late, a la the Preakness.A one run closer like the bird runs hard about 3/8s and can rebound much faster.I really hope Jackson over ruling Asmussem is an unfounded rumor.They should give her time, get to know her better and PLAN a campaign for the rest of the year.

[todko]

I don’t know how good Rachel Alexandra is or how good she will be, but for Bill Finley to write that she is “the best 3-year-old in America,” leaves me wondering who numbers 2 and 3 is?

Quality Road was the early favorite in the KY Derby and when he was fell by injury I Want Revenge became the favorite which defaulted to Pioneer of the Nile at post time because I Want Revenge was declared out of the Derby due to injury.

Therefore with a healthy Quality Road, a healthy I want Revenge, a healthy Rachel Alexandra all running in this year’s Travers would the best 3yo be determined?

Maybe, but if an outsider come out of the clouds and win the Travers should all of the above horses be entered and run then what? We now wouldn’t have just 1, 2, and 3; we would have 1, 2, 3, and 4.

What I am getting at is that it take a body of work to determine which horse should rein at the top of the heap and thus far there hasn’t been a horse with such resume.

And to start putting Rachel Alexandra in the class with Ruffian (as Bill Finley did in his article) is pure folly. Ruffian won at distances from 5 ½ F to 1 ½ M. She won her first 10 races by an average margin of 8 ½ lengths (an incredible 1.42 seconds average).

Until Rachel Alexandra approaches those sorts of accomplishments the discussion of comparison should be muted. Please don’t say Rachael Alexandra over the “boys” is the equalizer because it is not.

Many fillies/mares have won against the ‘boys,” but never came close to Ruffian’s achievements.

I noticed you didn't include Mine That Bird. Derby winner and a close 2nd in Preakness. Might clean up Quality Road, I Want Revenge, and Rachel in the Travers.

Asmussen knows what he saw -- if it's his decision he's not running Rachel against Mine That Bird anywhere.

[Cratos]

I noticed you didn't include Mine That Bird. Derby winner and a close 2nd in Preakness. Might clean up Quality Road, I Want Revenge, and Rachel in the Travers.

Asmussen knows what he saw -- if it's his decision he's not running Rachel against Mine That Bird anywhere.

You are absolutely correct, I didn’t include Mind That Bird in my previous post and I apologize because he has done as well or better than any other 3yo to this point in the 3yo campaign and deserves to be included in any discussion about the top 3yos of the year.

[PaceAdvantage]

hundreds in both human and equine medicine: steroids reduce bone density, Find a Physicians Desk Reference and it is listed as a side effect on all of the corticosteriods. Clandestine and overt use did not occure 30 years ago.

http://courses.washington.edu/bonephys/opsteroid.htmlPay attention. That's not what I asked:Also, can you point me to the medical studies that document just how much more fragile the bones are of today's T-breds as compared to 10, 20 and/or 30 years ago?Simple. Any studies? Not a study about the effects of steroids...just simple study that supports your statement that the bones of today's T-bred is much more fragile than those of yesteryear....