What is a 'speed duel'?

[Imriledup]

Some times horses will battle head and head and fall off the map and get beat by 20 and other times there will be a 'cutthroat' duel and those horses will keep going and finish 1-2 (or one of them will still win and the other will get burned up and be off the board).

Is there really a such thing as a 'speed duel'?

When you handicap do you look to see if a duel might develop and accordingly bet closers?

I can't tell you how many times i've concocted a duel that never developed and was holding a ticket on a horse that was far back while some front runner was lone speed.

Handicapping 'duels' is really tricky because you also have owners, trainers and jocks handicapping the same thing and making a concious decision to NOT duel, especially when it looks obvious on paper that they will duel.

I feel its really dangerous to predict a 'duel' and bet a closer, you have to be really careful when doing this.

The worst feeling is predicting a duel, getting that duel and you STILL can't reach with your deep closer.

[Overlay]

I don't exclude any horse from consideration outright. I tend to view early speed as a positive, and to give early-speed types credit for that characteristic on an individual basis, and not try to project the effect of any duels that may or may not develop. I figure that I compensate for this by consideration of other elements in the handicapping equation (for example, how far a horse's current condition will enable it to sustain its early foot, or whether a late closer has enough other positive aspects in its record to be able to catch the early leaders). And, as always for me, it boils down to whether any particular horse's odds will compensate me for the risk involved in betting it, considering how the horses compare to one another in all those areas.

[kenwoodallpromos]

IMO any horse not in the lead who wins is a closer. How deep they can close and win from is the trick, as those who handicap fake dirt know. Speed duels- I think true speed duels where you expect 1 or more horses to burn out depends on if the horses are really pushing themselves beyond the limit of staying ahead of others. Horses have a inefficient casrdiovacular system, heartbeat is super high when exercising, lung bleeding, short distance capability of running at full exertion. That is why stamina at near-full speed is so important.

[kenwoodallpromos]

IMO any horse not in the lead who wins is a closer. How deep they can close and win from is the trick, as those who handicap fake dirt know. Speed duels- I think true speed duels where you expect 1 or more horses to burn out depends on if the horses are really pushing themselves beyond the limit of staying ahead of others. Horses have a inefficient casrdiovacular system, heartbeat is super high when exercising, lung bleeding, short distance capability of running at full exertion. That is why stamina at near-full speed is so important.
Upon checking it appears the respiritory and heart size has at least as much to do with stamina; also I read that faster= less aerobic and more anerobic.

[fmolf]

i believe it all boils down to fitness and how the horse feels today.....a lot of times a three way duel does develop and one horse puts away the rest due to its superior conditioning and lack there of of the other horses be they closers ,pressers or e types

[michiken]

I take it you are handicapping Mountaineer? (pun intended)

Are we are seeing more speed duels due to the shortening of many races to 5 1/2 or 5 furlongs or less? The high early energy expediture of these short races can take alot out of a horse.

What method are you using to calculate early contenders? Are you also looking at their 2nd and 3rd fractions?

Are you using running styles to eliminate P an S horses who really don't want the early lead but have been forced to run against their running style?

When an E or E/P horse doesn't get the lead, they pack it in and fold like a cheap tent. Do you identify horses that consistently quit i,e. cheap speed?

[Imriledup]

I take it you are handicapping Mountaineer? (pun intended)

Are we are seeing more speed duels due to the shortening of many races to 5 1/2 or 5 furlongs or less? The high early energy expediture of these short races can take alot out of a horse.

What method are you using to calculate early contenders? Are you also looking at their 2nd and 3rd fractions?

Are you using running styles to eliminate P an S horses who really don't want the early lead but have been forced to run against their running style?

When an E or E/P horse doesn't get the lead, they pack it in and fold like a cheap tent. Do you identify horses that consistently quit i,e. cheap speed?

I have a few methods to identify 'quick' runners that seem to 'run off' with the rider or are ridden in a manner consistent with being 'sent' at all costs. Some horses can't be 'grabbed' or they choke off and stop, so they are sent hell bent all the time. Sometimes horses who always get the lead aren't quick from the blocks for the first 16th of the race, i factor that into my analysis also. I'm pretty good at identifying duelers, but you know, just like anything, sometimes those duelers will keep going and the closers just will get 'bottomed out' and not be able to close. If a closer is too close to a fast pace, that takes the starch out of their late kick and they can't gain.