Bubbles
05-01-2003, 06:32 PM
Hey all...
There are enough storylines in this Derby to fill this post. We've got a horse owned by a movie director (Atswhatimtalknbout), one that was nearly lost at birth (Brancusi)...the list goes on and on. Anyway, here's the horse-by-horse analysis...
1) Supah Blitz-Am getting mixed signals. Threw in a career-fast Beyer last out, but that field was sooooo bad compared to these; class disadvantage makes me look elsewhere.
2) Brancusi-His last three starts have been great. He nearly won the San Felipe two back and didn't throw in a really bad race in the Blue Grass. But what interests me most is his 4/20 work at KEE (:59 for 5f). This horse reminds me a lot of War Emblem with his solid early speed; very appealing, especially at 30-1; top pick.
3) Sir Cherokee-WOW. That's what I say about his Arkansas Derby upset. He came from seventeen lengths back to win that one, but some still have their doubts. He'll bounce. He won't be able to pick off this field. Bull. He completes my exacta.
4) Atswhatimtalknbout-His stock absolutely plummeted after his SA Derby flop. However, some must be encouraged after a series of promising works, and you can't doubt his pedigree (his sire was A.P. Indy); could be charging down the lane and might get a share.
5) Peace Rules-Some were questioning his Blue Grass win, as he didn't respond to urging in the stretch. However, a win is a win, and I respect this horse a lot. He has plenty of early speed and will be in the mix through the first half-mile; major player.
6) Funny Cide-Hard not to like a horse that came a half-length from all the money in the Wood. This horse has only thrown in one bad effort in his career (Holy Bull Stakes) and has been working the lights out; gets a spot on my exotics tickets, and will be my pick to win in the mud.
7) Offlee Wild-This horse was a well-beaten third in the Blue Grass. However, he has won on this track, traces back to a Triple Crown winner, and has won a respectable stakes, all of which give this horse somewhat of a shot.
8) Buddy Gil-There's no doubt that he's the best in California, but can he tackle these? There are just too many angles working against him (lots of speedballs, the gelding factor, and lack of experience on this track) here, and he's one I will bet against.
9) Indian Express-Baffert did this last year with War Emblem, but can he repeat? I say no. He's never won a race longer than 6.5 furlongs and his works are average at best; elsewhere.
10) Lone Star Sky-The only thing going for him here is that he has won on the track before. Other than that, I say no on a fast track, but he has impeccable bloodlines for running in the mud and could surprise if it rains hard on Friday.
11) Domestic Dispute-All I'm gonna say is that for some strange reason, the word "NO" keeps popping into my mind.
12) Empire Maker-What surprises me is that the Wood, which he wasn't supposed to be running hard in, was FASTER than his Florida Derby romp. This has me concerned about a fast track, and what happens if, say, Buddy Gil or Funny Cide get out there and set comfortable fractions? Believe it or not, I'll leave him off my win tickets, but I will play him on an off track.
13) Eye of the Tiger-See Domestic Dispute.
14) Ten Cents a Shine-Perhaps the most overrated colt out there right now. Can close, but this field simply outclasses him.
15) Outta Here-Has experience at the distance, but that's the only thing going for him on a fast track. However, he traces back to both Deputy Minister and Forty Niner, both excellent mud horses; would not surprise if there is moisture in the track.
16) Ten Most Wanted-Just who did he beat at Hawthorne? He had a golden trip, and while he finished well, the time wasn't exactly outstanding (1:51 2/5); will be coming late, but the outside post is a setback.
17) Scrimshaw-Lukas is back again. This horse had rotten luck in the draw, but simply ran the hands of the watches in a work on 4/16 (46 3/5 for 4f); has speed, the question is, does he have the stamina?
DA PICKS
FAST
1) BRANCUSI
2) SIR CHEROKEE
3) PEACE RULES
4) OFFLEE WILD
5) SCRIMSHAW
6) EMPIRE MAKER
OFF
1) FUNNY CIDE
2) EMPIRE MAKER
3) LONE STAR SKY
4) BRANCUSI
5) OUTTA HERE
6) SCRIMSHAW
There are enough storylines in this Derby to fill this post. We've got a horse owned by a movie director (Atswhatimtalknbout), one that was nearly lost at birth (Brancusi)...the list goes on and on. Anyway, here's the horse-by-horse analysis...
1) Supah Blitz-Am getting mixed signals. Threw in a career-fast Beyer last out, but that field was sooooo bad compared to these; class disadvantage makes me look elsewhere.
2) Brancusi-His last three starts have been great. He nearly won the San Felipe two back and didn't throw in a really bad race in the Blue Grass. But what interests me most is his 4/20 work at KEE (:59 for 5f). This horse reminds me a lot of War Emblem with his solid early speed; very appealing, especially at 30-1; top pick.
3) Sir Cherokee-WOW. That's what I say about his Arkansas Derby upset. He came from seventeen lengths back to win that one, but some still have their doubts. He'll bounce. He won't be able to pick off this field. Bull. He completes my exacta.
4) Atswhatimtalknbout-His stock absolutely plummeted after his SA Derby flop. However, some must be encouraged after a series of promising works, and you can't doubt his pedigree (his sire was A.P. Indy); could be charging down the lane and might get a share.
5) Peace Rules-Some were questioning his Blue Grass win, as he didn't respond to urging in the stretch. However, a win is a win, and I respect this horse a lot. He has plenty of early speed and will be in the mix through the first half-mile; major player.
6) Funny Cide-Hard not to like a horse that came a half-length from all the money in the Wood. This horse has only thrown in one bad effort in his career (Holy Bull Stakes) and has been working the lights out; gets a spot on my exotics tickets, and will be my pick to win in the mud.
7) Offlee Wild-This horse was a well-beaten third in the Blue Grass. However, he has won on this track, traces back to a Triple Crown winner, and has won a respectable stakes, all of which give this horse somewhat of a shot.
8) Buddy Gil-There's no doubt that he's the best in California, but can he tackle these? There are just too many angles working against him (lots of speedballs, the gelding factor, and lack of experience on this track) here, and he's one I will bet against.
9) Indian Express-Baffert did this last year with War Emblem, but can he repeat? I say no. He's never won a race longer than 6.5 furlongs and his works are average at best; elsewhere.
10) Lone Star Sky-The only thing going for him here is that he has won on the track before. Other than that, I say no on a fast track, but he has impeccable bloodlines for running in the mud and could surprise if it rains hard on Friday.
11) Domestic Dispute-All I'm gonna say is that for some strange reason, the word "NO" keeps popping into my mind.
12) Empire Maker-What surprises me is that the Wood, which he wasn't supposed to be running hard in, was FASTER than his Florida Derby romp. This has me concerned about a fast track, and what happens if, say, Buddy Gil or Funny Cide get out there and set comfortable fractions? Believe it or not, I'll leave him off my win tickets, but I will play him on an off track.
13) Eye of the Tiger-See Domestic Dispute.
14) Ten Cents a Shine-Perhaps the most overrated colt out there right now. Can close, but this field simply outclasses him.
15) Outta Here-Has experience at the distance, but that's the only thing going for him on a fast track. However, he traces back to both Deputy Minister and Forty Niner, both excellent mud horses; would not surprise if there is moisture in the track.
16) Ten Most Wanted-Just who did he beat at Hawthorne? He had a golden trip, and while he finished well, the time wasn't exactly outstanding (1:51 2/5); will be coming late, but the outside post is a setback.
17) Scrimshaw-Lukas is back again. This horse had rotten luck in the draw, but simply ran the hands of the watches in a work on 4/16 (46 3/5 for 4f); has speed, the question is, does he have the stamina?
DA PICKS
FAST
1) BRANCUSI
2) SIR CHEROKEE
3) PEACE RULES
4) OFFLEE WILD
5) SCRIMSHAW
6) EMPIRE MAKER
OFF
1) FUNNY CIDE
2) EMPIRE MAKER
3) LONE STAR SKY
4) BRANCUSI
5) OUTTA HERE
6) SCRIMSHAW