Which Horse Completes The Exacta?

[InFront]

When a horse wins the race does that have an effect on which horse then may come in second? I understand due to pace scenarios during the race this can effect how each horse in the race runs whether good or bad. But what I'm asking say you like a horse and it is the favorite in the race. And you know statistically betting all these type of horses to win may lose a bit on the win end but if you can narrow down which other horse or horses may complete the exacta and can do it with a decent degree of accuracy you can maybe turn those key horses into profitable plays.

So what I am asking is what other factors can we take into consideration in finding those place "other horses". Could running style of that winning key horse effect other styles to give a clue who may land second, maybe post position, bias of the track, distance of race, trainer/jockey stats, etc.

Or even if your key doesn't win but places you still need to narrow down which horse or horses will win the race for a boxed exacta play. Any suggestions?

[Imriledup]

Running style is important as far as i'm concerned.

In today's last race at Hollywood, there was a TON of speed on paper. I played the race accordingly by boxing up 3 and 6 (two sharp closers). So, you guessed what happened. One of the speeds got the lead, the rest of the speeds were no where to be found, and that speed horse wired the field at 9-1 and my two horses were 2nd and 3rd.

I did hit the tri because i tossed out the false favorite and did a 5 horse box for 60 bucks, but my main bet lost thanks to the 'other speeds' jockeys decided to take one dimensional types and race them from behind.

if i think a favorite is going to get in a 'speed duel' or be compromised by pace pressure, i'll structure my plays accordingly, leaving him off my tickets.

Of course, on the flip side, i'm not the only one using this strategy, so you might be able to get better value if you can connect one speed and one closer in an exacta box.

[Overlay]

Here are two links from a Google search (including one previous PA thread) that may be useful:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9776

http://www.brisnet.com/library/software/allnews/jul08brs.pdf

[Overlay]

Here are two more previous PA threads (from a search of threads with the words "place horse" in the title):

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=23692&highlight=place+horse

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9776&highlight=place+horse

Also, I just thought of Douglas Railey's relatively old book, Exacta Expose, that looked at the probability of various exacta combinations coming in based on how the horses ranked in the betting on the race (favorite, second choice, etc.) (if there are copies still available somewhere).

[Overlay]

My second PA thread in the above post was a duplicate of the one in the post before that. (Sorry.) :blush:

[CincyHorseplayer]

The ideas you outlined are some of the cornerstones of my game because I love the exacta.I think it offers the best bang for the buck.Far better ROI than win or win/place bets,but with 2 slots to cover there is less stretching out covering so many combinations.You can play them with more on the top and bottom this way.

The best races to play the exacta are the ones "you" can isolate the fewest contenders.It might seem elementary but I think it's taken for granted that the easiest races to pick are also easily the most profitable.My greatest attack is passing a lot of races and if there is a favorite that looks solid yet is a typical 6/5 and I can't isolate a place horse candidate,I'll pass it up.But I've had many days that I've made a solid profit from $17 and $25 exactas on easily hittable races.I know some people make money on either chaos races or bias boxes of 4-5-6 contenders but I like to zero in on a single horse with 1 or 2 contenders and play those 2 or 4 combinations heavier with maybe a few hedge bets.

For me there are only 2 bets in racing with varying degrees;betting on a favorite and betting against a favorite,even in exactas.If it is a favorite the combinations have to be few IMO and the opinion strong on the place horse.I'm a $20-30 bettor so I might make a $14-6 play on my top 2 combinations with 2 other $1 boxes to hedge.If I'm betting against a favorite and the odds are solid I'll play the combinations usually with 2 other contenders and more of a balance with their distribution,like say $9-7/$7-5.Plus I'll make a win bet with it,or a win place bet.

Isolating when you have a live overlay or a horse with value that is hit or miss is the artistic part of it or you end up betting too many marginal horses or underbet the best bets there are.

As to isolating who will place behind the winner,all of your suggestions are valid.A lot of times opposites attract as we saw in the Preakness,opposite running styles run 1-2 a lot and being sensitive to probable pace scenarios usually dope these situations out.Or simply on a normal track horses that pass muster on the basic nuts and bolts of handicapping credentials and fit the class profile of the race,isolating the best horses can be enough.

But on a biased track,especially in extreme weather,hot or cold,frozen or muddy or sunbaked,same running style exactas happen with frequency,Again making that distinction is crucial.

Distance specialists especially at say 5f or 1-1/8 are good plays as long as a horse is in form.

If I can isolate 3 horses,the track profile or bias is what sets them apart for me,it usually is that simple.On a legitimately speed favoring track I'm going to bet the speed horse vs the close but I'll have to make an assessment of if the place horse will be the presser or the closer of my other 2 contenders.If the bias looks overwhelming I'll us the presser,if the pace scenario looks like it might melt down all but my speed demon,I'll use the closer as the place horse.

Often it's just the best 2 or 3 horses in the race or withing the 3 basic running styles.They can be separated withing the scope of their own running styles.Many times there aren't enough contenders to have to isolate them.They stand out.These are easily hittable races and if there is modest value in them they are worth playing because your cash rates will off the charts and stacking combinations can yield unexpected to most,big ROI numbers.

I've got a sick little play that people crack up at me over.I'll have an exacta paying between $15-20 in a 6 horse field(typical a lot),I'll play a $10-2 on the top 2 combinations and another $1 box($14 total).

If I get 10 plays a week($140) and hit 3 of them with my top combinations and have 2 more that recoup a play.That's $290.50-$140 in bets=110% ROI.

I get my share of win and win/place bets at odds and in fact my hit percentage is pretty good on these.But after sitting at many chalky meets for over a decade trying to figure out how to win I've speezed this blood out of the turnip!!!

Try it,you'll be surprised at how little it costs and how much can make.Playing in this manner and/or making larger bets are the only 2 ways I think,from my experience,that the game can be beat.

[fmolf]

one of my favorite exacta plays is to look for a race with only two speed horses ....no more both must be in form and then box them for usually ten dollars watch them run first and second from gate to wire ..happens quite often when only two quality speeds are in the race...payoffs usually low but sometimes a bad bet can be avoided using minimum throwout standards.

[InFront]

The ideas you outlined are some of the cornerstones of my game because I love the exacta.I think it offers the best bang for the buck.Far better ROI than win or win/place bets,but with 2 slots to cover there is less stretching out covering so many combinations.You can play them with more on the top and bottom this way.



Thanks for the reply. Some very good ideas given.

[InFront]

To All:
Thanks to all who replied thus far. I am mainly a win bettor and mainly playing those middle to higher odds horses. I very seldom play low odds to win and very seldom play exotics even exactas. While I have a huge database unfortunately I currently don't have exotic payoffs in it so I can't even query them or at least to an ROI point to see what may work or not.

As I said while I'm mainly a flat win bettor I recently been checking out a group of horses while they may lose a tad on flat win bets they do hit the exacta W/P with great frequency. Now of course most of these are favorites and while they may not be great "longterm" bets for win I think they may possibly have some use in exactas that is IF I can narrow which one or maybe even two or three horses to hook up with them. There is nothing wrong with hitting a $25 or even a $12 exacta if you can do it for little cost and do it often enough. But some of these horses even complete exactas that pay very well over $200 sometimes.

Since I can't simply query them in all ways in exactas I'm trying to wing it on to what is the most logical "other horses" to hook up with them. This of course is not an easy task. Yes, I also read that more often than not whatever type of running style horse wins the opposite type comes in second. Not really sure if that holds water. Maybe someone with an exacta database can query that and post the results to see if it is true or not.

Other ideas is to hook this horse with other horses that are best in speed, early speed, late speed, best trainers, adjacent post positions, etc. There are tons of ideas that can be done but without some longterm database testing you can't really be sure which is why I posted and am asking this very question.

Forgot to mention. The way I look at it is say you have a $4 winner which completes a $18 exacta. Even if you made 3 cold exactas in that race and hit that would be equal to making 3 cold win bets and hitting a longshot for a nice profit. And we know hitting $18 cold winners ain't that easy. But what if the winner paid $6 and the exacta came back like $42. Now we are talking picking a real longshot winner and even though in a exacta wager not a win wager bottom line still a longshot in my book.

[CincyHorseplayer]

To All:
Thanks to all who replied thus far. I am mainly a win bettor and mainly playing those middle to higher odds horses. I very seldom play low odds to win and very seldom play exotics even exactas. While I have a huge database unfortunately I currently don't have exotic payoffs in it so I can't even query them or at least to an ROI point to see what may work or not.

As I said while I'm mainly a flat win bettor I recently been checking out a group of horses while they may lose a tad on flat win bets they do hit the exacta W/P with great frequency. Now of course most of these are favorites and while they may not be great "longterm" bets for win I think they may possibly have some use in exactas that is IF I can narrow which one or maybe even two or three horses to hook up with them. There is nothing wrong with hitting a $25 or even a $12 exacta if you can do it for little cost and do it often enough. But some of these horses even complete exactas that pay very well over $200 sometimes.

Since I can't simply query them in all ways in exactas I'm trying to wing it on to what is the most logical "other horses" to hook up with them. This of course is not an easy task. Yes, I also read that more often than not whatever type of running style horse wins the opposite type comes in second. Not really sure if that holds water. Maybe someone with an exacta database can query that and post the results to see if it is true or not.

Other ideas is to hook this horse with other horses that are best in speed, early speed, late speed, best trainers, adjacent post positions, etc. There are tons of ideas that can be done but without some longterm database testing you can't really be sure which is why I posted and am asking this very question.

Infront,

Just as a now means,all you have to do is make a place profile at the track or tracks you bet.It's a place to start.Just note the 1st-2nd call positions for the 2nd place finisher,post,and run notes if any.Using them adjacent to winners profiles gives you a more in depth insight to the way a track is playing or the way a race was run.

In addition to win and place profiles I make a race notation such as "3H duel 50" meaning 3 horses battled for the lead for a half mile or "lone speed" which is self explanatory,or "chase lead" meaning a horse got loose at 1st call but was run down.

This way I can look at the running positions for the win and place horses,the fractions,and how the race unfolded.Knowing what types of scenarios occur in the different race denominations and on different track surfaces gives you a better idea of how races will be run in the future.

[fmolf]

i will also look for horses who come in second more than first ...especially in class of todays race......also certain jockeys finish second more often than others.......another of my favorite plays is to take an odds on favorite in a field of at least ten and use him in a wheel in the second slot because lots of times especially on turf racing luck will cost him the win....

[michiken]

To structure an exacta bet I like to combine the best early with the best late horses. It all depends on the race as some do not have closers i,e. maiden races.

I rank the field by ability time and try to predict which horse(s) will survive the early pace contest. When a horse is not part of the early pace, then you have to look at the final fraction or see if the speed rating is within the range of front runners.

I like to take my key horse and wheel it. I am not afraid to wheel 4-5 other horses as long as my key horse is 8-1 or higher.

The best paying exactas will have the top late pace horse finishing first or second at high odds. Take a look at the results from Evangeline Downs and you can see how the large fields and herd mentality allow closers to get there.

[Lateralus]

I was just reading Dick Mitchell's COMMON SENSE HANDICAPPING last night on this very subject. According to Mitchell, to be most successful with the exacta one actually has to handicap separately for the place horse. His biggest piece of advice was that the place horse is NOT generally going to be the #2 win horse. In fact, the place horse according to Mitchell is more often an opposite type: a closer in a race that figures to be won by an early speed type for example. Or the horse that has a clear edge on class but not on speed. His advice is to study the place horses and eventually patterns will emerge and if one persists they will eventually become as good at handicapping for place as for win, and hopefully become quite deadly with the exacta eventually.

[fmolf]

I was just reading Dick Mitchell's COMMON SENSE HANDICAPPING last night on this very subject. According to Mitchell, to be most successful with the exacta one actually has to handicap separately for the place horse. His biggest piece of advice was that the place horse is NOT generally going to be the #2 win horse. In fact, the place horse according to Mitchell is more often an opposite type: a closer in a race that figures to be won by an early speed type for example. Or the horse that has a clear edge on class but not on speed. His advice is to study the place horses and eventually patterns will emerge and if one persists they will eventually become as good at handicapping for place as for win, and hopefully become quite deadly with the exacta eventually.
that is an excellent book along with "Common Sense Betting".... i always look to see the style of the horse i havce for win slot and go with a diferent type of horse one exception is when their are two speed horse and only two and both look to be fit and ready and no closer has the speed or stamina to catch them...i play a two horse box or a little more with my #1 horse on top

[kitts]

What completes the exacta? I grew so tired of running 1-3 in an exacta but realized I favor win types and they do not often Place. Aslo, I am partial to speed horses and that will twist an exacta. What to do? I was working at the time for HDW and Jim Cramer was teaching me the RS/POS report which was very heavily running style/postion oriented. It had a bit of a learning curve but I finally got it. So Jim challenged me to successfully pick the Place horse in consecutive races based on RS/POS and I did 41 in a row! Not as good at it as I was but Exactas are easier now.

[46zilzal]

Sartin figured this out long ago in his work The 55% Solution. It is a Mitchell borrowed from him: contra-energy horse to the winner.

[Overlay]

that is an excellent book along with "Common Sense Betting".... i always look to see the style of the horse i havce for win slot and go with a diferent type of horse one exception is when their are two speed horse and only two and both look to be fit and ready and no closer has the speed or stamina to catch them...i play a two horse box or a little more with my #1 horse on top

Mitchell summarized "place horse" types in Commonsense Betting as follows:

-- the unbalanced horse that has class or speed, but not both;
-- the horse that has strong numbers, but has to fight a bias (such as a frontrunner on a track that favors closers (or vice-versa), a horse breaking from the 1 post when the rail is dead, or a turf horse breaking from the 12 post in a two-turn race);
-- a "seconditis" horse, with a record that shows a disproportionate number of second-place finishes;
-- both the public favorite and the morning-line favorite in races where the two are different horses; and
-- the Form's consensus best bet horse (in bold-face type).

[eqitec]

As suggested by others, creating a profile of horses that placed for each distance/surface of the tracks you play can be very helpful. Here's a sample of what I used for the 6 1/2F distance from the '08/'09 meeting at TAM.

[fmolf]

Mitchell summarized "place horse" types in Commonsense Betting as follows:

-- the unbalanced horse that has class or speed, but not both;
-- the horse that has strong numbers, but has to fight a bias (such as a frontrunner on a track that favors closers (or vice-versa), a horse breaking from the 1 post when the rail is dead, or a turf horse breaking from the 12 post in a two-turn race);
-- a "seconditis" horse, with a record that shows a disproportionate number of second-place finishes;
-- both the public favorite and the morning-line favorite in races where the two are different horses; and
-- the Form's consensus best bet horse (in bold-face type).
i especially like his ideas about the" mitchell matrix" in races he deemed chaotic...i have an exacta overlay chart from barry meadow i believe and i use this in chaos races with two horses in the win slot and the overlayed horses beneath them...works well in turf races especially,with big fields