Belmont Picks

[SmartyLane]

I know it is early and the runners are not confirmed yet but lets see some ideas here......

If RA runs she is my pick on top PROBABLY
MTB will be in there as well
And I really liked Charitable Mans Peter Pan so I think he will up there as well. 3rd race off a layoff, might be primed for a big race.

[Stevie Belmont]

It's way to early for me to even consider what might happen. A fresh and ready Dunkirk and already intrigues me though.

[cmoore]

If Mine That Bird is in, he wins..This little horse could go 2 miles.

[cj's dad]

If Mine That Bird is in, he wins..This little horse could go 2 miles.

Deep closers typically do not win the Belmont Stakes.

Victory Gallop was somewhat of an exception although he was nowhere near a deep closer as is MTB

[Bettowin]

Deep closers typically do not win the Belmont Stakes.

Victory Gallop was somewhat of an exception although he was nowhere near a deep closer as is MTB

Birdstone came from way back didn't he?

[OTM Al]

Birdstone came from way back didn't he?

Yes, after Smarty Jones put down three different duals on the lead, two of which with horses that became Gr1 winners. That final dual with Eddington doesn't happen, Birdstone likely never catches him. Can't know for sure, but the finish was close enough that I would have to put strong credence to it.

[SmartyLane]

I agree with you Stevie, but it is fun to think about.........

I am also wondering about a well rested Dunkirk. I am on the fence with him still though. Musket Man is always in the money, can't count him out either. He has outran his pedigree so I don't care what it says on distance.

[tucker6]

If Mine That Bird is in, he wins..This little horse could go 2 miles.
I am willing to bet that MTB does not hit the board as a top 3 finisher in the Belmont. Forget RA, MTB has done a lot of racing himself in the past four weeks. Belmont doesn't fit his style, and fresh horses will be there like Dunkirk, Summer Bird, and Charitable Man. Not to mention MM if he shows up. Then there is RA.

[cj's dad]

Birdstone came from way back didn't he?

The point is that more often than not, 2 out of 3 (?) that the Belmont winner comes from on the lead, sitting right off the lead or up close in the 2nd flight.

Not from the clouds.

[46zilzal]

last late mover was the PLODDER Editor's Note

[cj's dad]

Birdstone came from way back didn't he?

The latest stats I can find are that from 1970 - 2003 the breakdown is as follows:

6 winners went wire to wire

14 (including those 6) led all or most of the way

9 others were never farther than 4-5 lengths back

9 were listed as "well off" the pace

[cj]

Victory Gallop was 10th of 11 early and well back...plodding behind a very slow pace.

[46zilzal]

I am willing to bet that MTB does not hit the board as a top 3 finisher in the Belmont. Forget RA, MTB has done a lot of racing himself in the past four weeks. Belmont doesn't fit his style, and fresh horses will be there like Dunkirk, Summer Bird, and Charitable Man. Not to mention MM if he shows up. Then there is RA.
If the Bird comes out of the last race in good order, his energy distribution STYLE is perfect for the Belmont Stakes.

[FlyinLate]

I agree with you Stevie, but it is fun to think about.........

I am also wondering about a well rested Dunkirk. I am on the fence with him still though. Musket Man is always in the money, can't count him out either. He has outran his pedigree so I don't care what it says on distance.

I'm a VERY strong MM supporter, however, I dont know if he will even show up in the Belmont. After rewatching the Preakness a few times he was awful tired in the stretch. Looked like a two year old veering in and out. He has a hell of alot of heart, but I think a short layoff is in order.

I'm getting real sick of hearing how MTB would have won Preakness if the race was a further distance. If the race is a further distance, the fractions will be slower. RA dueled a horse who won five straight races, completely shut him down, and still ran on to win.

If she goes my tickets will surround RA, Summer Bird, and Dunkirk. The race is a ways away, so these selections are likely to change depending on works, post, freshness, etc.

[cj's dad]

Victory Gallop was 10th of 11 early and well back...plodding behind a very slow pace.

Yeah, I remember, I was there. From our seats between the 1/8 and 1/16 poles, we thought that RQ had won.

And as you have lectured me in the past, deep closers do not TYPICALLY win the Belmont !

[46zilzal]

And as you have lectured me in the past, deep closers do not TYPICALLY win the Belmont !
Deep closers are a distinct disadvantage ALL THE TIME on dirt

[tag]

I'm a VERY strong MM supporter, however, I dont know if he will even show up in the Belmont. After rewatching the Preakness a few times he was awful tired in the stretch. Looked like a two year old veering in and out. He has a hell of alot of heart, but I think a short layoff is in order.

I'm getting real sick of hearing how MTB would have won Preakness if the race was a further distance. If the race is a further distance, the fractions will be slower. RA dueled a horse who won five straight races, completely shut him down, and still ran on to win.

If she goes my tickets will surround RA, Summer Bird, and Dunkirk. The race is a ways away, so these selections are likely to change depending on works, post, freshness, etc.


Derek Ryan has already said they will skip the Belmont and point the horse torwards the Haskell.

[Stevie Belmont]

I agree 100%...

Horse has done a lot and deserves a break...

The Haskell is the race for him with no doubts...

Derek Ryan has already said they will skip the Belmont and point the horse torwards the Haskell.

[cj's dad]

Deep closers are a distinct disadvantage ALL THE TIME on dirt

Thanks so much for reinforcing my long held beliefs - what a relief that was.

[cmoore]

The latest stats I can find are that from 1970 - 2003 the breakdown is as follows:

6 winners went wire to wire

14 (including those 6) led all or most of the way

9 others were never farther than 4-5 lengths back

9 were listed as "well off" the pace

So 9 of 32 have won from well off the pace. So that means I need at least 3-1 on MTB. If Rachel is in then 3-1 will be easy to get...If Rachel is not in..Then MTB just might be the favorite. Hell, We don't even know if MTB is going to run..

[badcompany]

The latest stats I can find are that from 1970 - 2003 the breakdown is as follows:

6 winners went wire to wire

14 (including those 6) led all or most of the way

9 others were never farther than 4-5 lengths back

9 were listed as "well off" the pace

I think people assume that because it's such a long race that closers do well. These stats indicate the opposite is true.

I don't see anyone challenging Rachel early as did Big Drama.

I might take a shot with a cold exacta: Rachel on top of Charitable Man.

[Wickel]

I think people assume that because it's such a long race that closers do well. These stats indicate the opposite is true.

I don't see anyone challenging Rachel early as did Big Drama.

I might take a shot with a cold exacta: Rachel on top of Charitable Man.

Bad, you're absolutely right. If RA gets out on a lonely lead, the race is over. Right now I'm thinking Dunkirk, but he's going to need some pace help from another early speed type. Don't know if anyone could have beaten MTB in the Derby, but Dunkirk certainly would have finished a lot better if it weren't for the horrendous ride he received. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he's reunited with Gomez.

[MickJ26]

I know it is early and the runners are not confirmed yet but lets see some ideas here......

If RA runs she is my pick on top PROBABLY
MTB will be in there as well
And I really liked Charitable Mans Peter Pan so I think he will up there as well. 3rd race off a layoff, might be primed for a big race.


Dunkirk is going to be fresh and dangerous.
Charitable Man we already know can handle Big Sandy.
Mine That Bird never seems to get tired.
That's my triple box, whether Rachel runs or not.

[SmartyLane]

I agree 100%...

Horse has done a lot and deserves a break...

The Haskell is the race for him with no doubts...


Glad to hear this myself. I really like MM. Talk about a horse that tries everytime. He gives his all like no other horse on the track. He shows that determination will overcome ability/pedigree a lot.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Glad to hear this myself. I really like MM. Talk about a horse that tries everytime. He gives his all like no other horse on the track. He shows that determination will overcome ability/pedigree a lot.

MM was completely exhausted running down the stretch in the preakness...was weaving like a drunk driver on his way home...yet still held on for a very solid third. alot of heart there... looking foward to seeing him in the future.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

If Rachel doesn't enter...Give me the "All Bird" Exacta Box. Summer Bird just keeps running, the longer the race. A lot of these horses will hit a wall anywhere between 1-1/8 and 1-1/4, and Summer Bird should be picking them off down the lane.

[FlyinLate]

Derek Ryan has already said they will skip the Belmont and point the horse torwards the Haskell.

Good news, I was unaware of this until now. Can't wait to see him tear it up in the Haskell.

[WinterTriangle]

I will take Flying Private in my trifecta. This is the quintessential "horse on the improve." He has been building lots of experience two turns on dirt. Watched him carefully at Oaklawn. Lukas has been running him two turns on dirt for a reason......Lukas WILL have Flying Private ready, IMHO. This is the race he's been aiming for.


IMHO, Summer Bird, not MTB, is truly the "fluke" horse. 4th or 5th maybe.

MTB: Those thinking that MTB is *only* a deep closer are basing that on the running style used in the Derby and Preakness. The jockeys SAID they were going to hold him back. But take a look at all his races in canada as well, and compare to others on the PPs.......he actually has more tactical speed than PON and Papa and FF, and like MM and Take the Points, he can stalk the pace if ridden that way, if not neck-breaking speeds. He is a versatile horse. And he WILL be ridden closer to the pace this time.

Dunkirk: not sure i wanna take a chance on him? He's another "horse with somewhat unproven potential" and I used FF in my supers for Derby and Preak and don't want to make that mistake again.

[SmartyLane]

Dunkirk: not sure i wanna take a chance on him? He's another "horse with somewhat unproven potential" and I used FF in my supers for Derby and Preak and don't want to make that mistake again.

I feel the same way...........I didn't use him in the derby except for 3rd in the tri's, but I am thinking this is a FF performing horse.........then I think about the Florida derby and I start questioning myself again.

[Cratos]

Yeah, I remember, I was there. From our seats between the 1/8 and 1/16 poles, we thought that RQ had won.

And as you have lectured me in the past, deep closers do not TYPICALLY win the Belmont !

Years ago in an article published by the DRF it was found that horses running on the lead or near the lead in distance races win 60%-70% of the time.

While I don’t believe Rachel Alexandra would win the Belmont Stakes if entered because of my concern about her distance limitation, I do believe that against the horses that have run in both the Derby and the Preakness she has the perfect running style to win the Belmont.

[cj]

The reason "speed horses" win more is because they are usually the best horses. I don't think deep closers are at any particular disadvantage in the Belmont, it is just pretty rare that they are the best horses. It is pretty common that the best horse that day wins the race.

Jazil, Victory Gallop, Afleet Alex, Editor's Note, etc. proved you can win from the back. For those that say it is a disadvantage, which horses were best but compromised by the trip in recent years?

[Bignick63]

Belmont Stakes Taking Nice Shape

The Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be another very exiting and very anticipated event.



Charitable Man - Looked very good winning The Peter Pan a few weeks ago
Dunkirk - Troubled trip in the derby has had 5 weeks to recover
Summer Bird - Figures to improve off his derby effort
Chocolate Candy - Was squeezed early in the derby but did make a run and has had 5 weeks to recover
Mr Hot Stuff - Finished striong in California before getting a rough trip in the derby
Flying Private - Made a nice late run to finish within 4-lengths of the winner in Maryland
Mine That Bird - Figures to be flying late once again
Rachel Alexandra - If she goes it will be her toughest test yet

Too soon to make any predictions. A lot depends on who's in and who isn't but should be fun to follow.


Nick

www.nickborg.com (http://www.nickborg.com)

[OTM Al]

The reason "speed horses" win more is because they are usually the best horses. I don't think deep closers are at any particular disadvantage in the Belmont, it is just pretty rare that they are the best horses. It is pretty common that the best horse that day wins the race.

Jazil, Victory Gallop, Afleet Alex, Editor's Note, etc. proved you can win from the back. For those that say it is a disadvantage, which horses were best but compromised by the trip in recent years?

This is difficult to address because of defining a horse as "best". Deep closers are not often going to look best because very often their finish placings, BSFs, and what have you are going to be compromised by bad trips or slow front ends.

I remember Afleet Alex and Jazil's runs well. Afleet Alex was so far the best in that race he was a steal at the approx 6/5 price he went off at. And he had already hit the lead for the stretch run, so not exactly the deep closer move. He'd already psyched out the other trainers just watching him tirelessly jog the track in the days leading up. He wasn't getting beat and they knew it. Jazil's year was just a bad renewal. Someone had to win. That might sound simplistic, but I just can't put it any other way.

Best I can do is flip this one on its head and say look at what happened last year. Would anyone consider Da Tara all that good? But he did exactly what Zito (was Zito right?) said he was going to do. Go to the front, and he led them all the way around during/after the Big Brown debacle. Can we really say he was the best horse in that field (excluding BB of course)? Not sure if he's even won since. Such is the advantage though of being up front at the distance. After running so far, there isn't the same closing kick as there is at 1 1/8 m for the deep closers. Yes, the best horse will often win, but that's as you say because the best horse is usually up there all the way and he looks even better because he doesn't find the trouble of the deep closer

[cj]

I agree Al, my point is that it isn't like there has been a plethora of quality closers lined up to take the Belmont. It is pretty tough to get a bad trip, even as a deep closer, at Belmont going a mile and a half. If you lose, you weren't best that day.

Last year's field, save Big Brown,was pretty awful too. I don't think any of the horses lost because they were deep closers at some tactical disadvantage. The horse won by 5 and was certainly best that day. If I remember right, he was drawing away.

[depalma113]

Belmont Stakes Taking Nice Shape

The Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be another very exiting and very anticipated event.



Charitable Man - Looked very good winning The Peter Pan a few weeks ago
Dunkirk - Troubled trip in the derby has had 5 weeks to recover
Summer Bird - Figures to improve off his derby effort
Chocolate Candy - Was squeezed early in the derby but did make a run and has had 5 weeks to recover
Mr Hot Stuff - Finished striong in California before getting a rough trip in the derby
Flying Private - Made a nice late run to finish within 4-lengths of the winner in Maryland
Mine That Bird - Figures to be flying late once again
Rachel Alexandra - If she goes it will be her toughest test yet

Too soon to make any predictions. A lot depends on who's in and who isn't but should be fun to follow.


Nick

www.nickborg.com (http://www.nickborg.com)

Those horses are a tougher test than the group she faced in the Preakness?

[OTM Al]

It probably has much more to do with the way horses are trained and jockeys know how to ride on the dirt. Turfers are trained for that big closing kick and the jocks know that is the best way to run the race, but dirt horses simply aren't trained or ridden that way very often, at least not the top ones. Mine That Bird was not trained that way or ridden that way until fate got in the way in Kentucky. Imagine if he would have gotten a good clean break that way and tried to race the way he had before. He would have ended up near the back and faded back to the obscurity he came from.

You are right in pointing out that because of Belmont's size and larger and thus more gentle terms traffic problems may not be as big as an issue at like at Pimlico. When I saw it for the first time last week I was amazed at how narrow the track seemed. But there will still be traffic regardless so the run is only rarely going to be truly clean. And beyond the traffic, the pace up front will always dictate if a deep closer even has a chance to make up the ground. These two factors are what get them beat more often than not because both have to go the right way for the one runners to get there at the end. Even the best horse in the race will run afoul of these two factors if he is a deep closer.

[joanied]

OhOh...looks like Zito will enter two in the Belmont...Miner's Escape & Brave Victory....both just worked in 48+....also, Charitable Man IMO, is going to be one tough colt come Belmont day...Summer Bird also concerns me...he did put in a good late run in the Derby and comes into this one fresh...looks like a compelling field is taking shape :jump:
I won't even begin to try figuring out the Belmont until Monday...when we all will know for sure wether or not RA is entered...

[Stevie Belmont]

Pace makes the race...

And no two races are the same...Exactly anyway

Commendable was a very average horse at best, left him alone up front after he put Hugh Hefner away, and it was adios to the rest, as Pat Day took the white carnations.

Frankel wanted to strangle the life out of Solis for his ride on Aptitude.

[WinterTriangle]

While I don’t believe Rachel Alexandra would win the Belmont Stakes if entered because of my concern about her distance limitation

Cratos, I'm not aware of any data that shows RA has distance limitations? I'm interested to see more data on this, because I wasn't aware of it.

According to Steve Roman's site, her % of C (percentage of progeny open stakes wins at the classic distances of 9 1/2, 10 and 12 furlongs) is 14.3 on the sire side and 20 on the dam's sire side. Sire's AWD and Dam's Sire AWD (average winning distance) is 8.71 and 8.80 respectively........the highest numbers of any other horses he has listed for the Belmont right now. (except for Mr. Hot Stuff's Dam's sire dirt AWDs).

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2009/2009_belmont_starters.htm

[PaceAdvantage]

For those that say it is a disadvantage, which horses were best but compromised by the trip in recent years?This one doesn't count because it was long ago, but Strike the Gold probably fits as an answer to your question, as he was, in my mind at least, the quintessential "hard luck closer."

[Cratos]

Speed horses win more races because they typically dictate and control the pace. Pace is the most important dynamic of the race.

A jockey on a slow starter will typically have to measure his horse against the upfront speed, but the speed horse is not being measured against the come from behind speed.

Also, if a straight line is the shortest distance between two points, a jockey on a speed horse have the advantage of maintaining the straight line by being up front and out of trouble whereas a jockey on a come from behind horse might have the disadvantage (and usually does) of altering its course to obtain running room. This alteration typically adds distance.

[Cratos]

Cratos, I'm not aware of any data that shows RA has distance limitations? I'm interested to see more data on this, because I wasn't aware of it.

According to Steve Roman's site, her % of C (percentage of progeny open stakes wins at the classic distances of 9 1/2, 10 and 12 furlongs) is 14.3 on the sire side and 20 on the dam's sire side. Sire's AWD and Dam's Sire AWD (average winning distance) is 8.71 and 8.80 respectively........the highest numbers of any other horses he has listed for the Belmont right now. (except for Mr. Hot Stuff's Dam's sire dirt AWDs).

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2009/2009_belmont_starters.htm

I don’t discount Steve Roman’s dosage methodology, but to attempt to wrap a horse’s performance into a single number and then stratify it into some sort of exact ranking is disingenuous to say the least.

Go to the Stallion Register and take a look at Medaglia d’Oro progeny and although it is early in his stud career there isn’t any sign of distance winning off-spring with the exception of Rachel Alexandra who won one (1) race beyond 1-1/8 miles.

[tucker6]

I don’t discount Steve Roman’s dosage methodology, but to attempt to wrap a horse’s performance into a single number and then stratify it into some sort of exact ranking is disingenuous to say the least.

Go to the Stallion Register and take a look at Medaglia d’Oro progeny and although it is early in his stud career there isn’t any sign of distance winning off-spring with the exception of Rachel Alexandra who won one (1) race beyond 1-1/8 miles.
Bold Ruler couldn't get one of his offspring to go beyond a mile even if he carried them on his back. He had a horrible reputation for only throwing sprinters, not all deserved. And then he had a son in 1970, who it turned out could sprint for miles. I don't give him credit for that one though. That was all on the dam. Are we certain RA isn't following after mom instead of dad??

[Cratos]

Bold Ruler couldn't get one of his offspring to go beyond a mile even if he carried them on his back. He had a horrible reputation for only throwing sprinters, not all deserved. And then he had a son in 1970, who it turned out could sprint for miles. I don't give him credit for that one though. That was all on the dam. Are we certain RA isn't following after mom instead of dad??

You are only partially correct. Bold Ruler was not known for having off-spring with stamina. However Bold Ruler himself unlike Rachel Alexandra’s sire, Megdalia d’Oro wasn’t that bad at the American classic distance of 1 ¼ miles. because as a 4yo he won two races at 1 ¼ miles with one being the 1958 Suburban in which he spotted his rivals a whopping 25 pounds (Megdalia d’Oro never did that).

Additionally, Bold Ruler’s progeny included not only Secretariat as a stellar performer, but the very good filly, Gamely who ran a rallying second to the great Dr. Fager in the 1964 renewal of the Californian.

And how can any NYRA race goer ever forget the brief rivalry between Bold Ruler’s son, Wajima and the great Forego. Wajima would split the two contest; which if I remembered were at 1 ¼ miles. Also, Wajima defeated the KY Derby winner of 1975, Foolish Please.

Medaglia d’Oro was a very good race horse, but he wasn’t a Bold Ruler on the racetrack and has yet to prove that he will be a Bold Ruler under shed row.

[WinterTriangle]

the best horse will often win, but that's as you say because the best horse is usually up there all the way and he looks even better because he doesn't find the trouble of the deep closer

Okay. Question here.

Most horses don't run the distance of the BM very often. My thinking is you can have all the pace in the world......but if you don't have *serious* stamina, you will not reach the wire on what is a notoriously deep (tiring?) track at 1-1/2 miles.

So, can we say that if others are lacking stamina/ability/breeding to get 1-1/2 miles on a sandy track, that closers who *do* have those qualities might benefit here? After all, they do have more time to "get up there", don't they?

Give me your thoughts. I really don't know.

[badcompany]

After giving this some more thought, I believe the highest probability outcome is a repeat of the Preakness, except, this time Rachel wins by about five, with MTB picking up the pieces to get second by the same margin.

Charitable Man, my original pick for second, didn't beat much in the Peter Pan and it's a bit too much of a reach to think that he could beat an accomplished horse like MTB. That said, I never feel overly confident betting against Kieran McG.

Any ideas on what a Rachel/MTB exacta pays? My guess is the $12-15 range.

[PaceAdvantage]

However Bold Ruler himself unlike Rachel Alexandra’s sire, Megdalia d’Oro wasn’t that bad at the American classic distance of 1 ¼ miles. Seriously...MDO got beat a HALF a length in the Belmont Stakes. Why is that never taken into consideration when discussing MDO's inability to go a distance? Yeah, he got beat by Sarava, but still....

[Cratos]

Seriously...MDO got beat a HALF a length in the Belmont Stakes. Why is that never taken into consideration when discussing MDO's inability to go a distance? Yeah, he got beat by Sarava, but still....

PA, I don’t think I have concisely articulated my point about Megdalia d’Oro.
It is not that he wasn’t a very good racehorse (matter of fact he borders on being exceptional)

His owner, Edwin Gann I think was a courageous horseman because after Megdalia d’Oro was injured he didn’t retire the horse, but brought him back to race until the horse was 5yo and that is saying a lot these days with the “rush” to the breeding shed.

However I stand by my assertion that Megdalia d’Oro was not a quality horse beyond 1 1/8 miles even though he won the Travers and finished second in the Belmont.

To compare his performances to Bold Ruler’s on the racetrack or in the breeding shed is an unfair disparity to Megdalia d’Oro given what Bold Ruler accomplished.

[the little guy]

Medaglia D'Oro's best race was the BC Classic at Santa Anita.....at 1 1/4 miles. He dueled with Congaree, and still held second, losing to the very talented Pleasantly Perfect. Medaglia D'Oro's problem wasn't the distance....it was the competition ( and race dynamics ).

[PaceAdvantage]

So he wins the Travers at 10 furlongs, finishes second in the BC Classic at 10 furlongs, gets beat a half length in the 12 furlong Belmont, and to my amazement, some folks on here have done nothing but point to MDO as a reason why Rachel CAN'T get the Belmont distance...

I can't wrap my head around this...it makes no sense.

[the little guy]

So he wins the Travers at 10 furlongs, finishes second in the BC Classic at 10 furlongs, gets beat a half length in the 12 furlong Belmont, and to my amazement, some folks on here have done nothing but point to MDO as a reason why Rachel CAN'T get the Belmont distance...

I can't wrap my head around this...it makes no sense.


It's all relative.

Compared to people saying Rachel Alexandra is the greatest filly of all time that kind of thinking is actual genius.

[toussaud]

PA, I don’t think I have concisely articulated my point about Megdalia d’Oro.
It is not that he wasn’t a very good racehorse (matter of fact he borders on being exceptional)

His owner, Edwin Gann I think was a courageous horseman because after Megdalia d’Oro was injured he didn’t retire the horse, but brought him back to race until the horse was 5yo and that is saying a lot these days with the “rush” to the breeding shed.

However I stand by my assertion that Megdalia d’Oro was not a quality horse beyond 1 1/8 miles even though he won the Travers and finished second in the Belmont.

To compare his performances to Bold Ruler’s on the racetrack or in the breeding shed is an unfair disparity to Megdalia d’Oro given what Bold Ruler accomplished.
any horse who wins the travers and comes in 2nd in the BCC is a quality horse past 9F

[badcompany]

With Rachel out, it's back to the drawing board.

I like the Bird exacta.

Mine that Bird/Summer Bird

Good luck.

[CBedo]

I know it is early and the runners are not confirmed yet but lets see some ideas here......

If RA runs she is my pick on top PROBABLY
MTB will be in there as well
And I really liked Charitable Mans Peter Pan so I think he will up there as well. 3rd race off a layoff, might be primed for a big race.
Way to be contrarian, haha. j/k.

[Jinxed]

I will take MTB with some Zito horses. I like neither Dunkirk or Summer Bird. I will never undermine Zito's entries, and I do think MTB can do it again. I've seen deep closers at Belmont...it's a long, long stretch run..so what's the problem?

[simulcapper]

His sire, Birdstone, beat Smarty Jones in the Belmont with just that kind of late run. And it looks like his half brother, Summer Bird, rested since the Derby and also a late runner sired by Birdstone, will be joining him in that late late run from the back. One for $9,500 and the other for $10,000 ... that would make an interesting exacta. As long as there is some speed up front.

[SmartyLane]

I am not 100% sure, but I do think that Birdstone was just off the pace the whole time. He wasn't way back there like MTB has been. He was 6-8 lengths back most of the race and closed steadily half the last curve and the stretch home.

[Shelby]

Is Musket Man not running?

[point given]

Is Musket Man not running?


nope, pointed to the Haskell August 2nd

[TurfRuler]

TurfRuler Order Belmont Stakes (preliminary)

1. Chocolate Candy, Jerry Hollendorfer

2. Charitable Man, Kiaran McLaughlin

3. Dunkirk, Todd Pletcher

4. Mine That Bird, Bennie Wolley

5. Brave Victory, Nicolas Zito

6. Mr. Hot Stuff, Eoin Harty

7. Nowhere to Hide, Nicholas Zito

8. Flying Private, D. Wayne Lucas

9. Summer Bird, Tim Ice

10. Luv Guv, D. Wayne Lucas

11. Miner's Escape, Niccholas Zito

[WinterTriangle]

Summer Bird - not handling the track according to reports.

And too much equipment changes! Toe grabs, blinks, shoes?

No thanks. Either an entire make-over will yield astonishing results, or they are grasping at straws here.

[Charlie D]

So he wins the Travers at 10 furlongs, finishes second in the BC Classic at 10 furlongs, gets beat a half length in the 12 furlong Belmont, and to my amazement, some folks on here have done nothing but point to MDO as a reason why Rachel CAN'T get the Belmont distance...

I can't wrap my head around this...it makes no sense.

Bit late, PA, but you probably should add 2nd in Dubai World Cup to your list.

[Charlie D]

Bit late again and i'm no expert on such things, but having Sadlers Wells a couple of Generation back on the Sire side and Dam side of her pedigree would have probably helped Rachel Alexander to get 12 panels

If Mr Jackson has spotted this , he may get his Arc trip thinking head on again.

[Charlie D]

Bit late again and i'm no expert on such things, but having Sadlers Wells a couple of Generation back on the Sire side and Dam side of her pedigree would have probably helped Rachel Alexander to get 12 panels

If Mr Jackson has spotted this , he may get his Arc trip thinking head on again.

Error regarding Sadlers Wells on Dam side. Racing Post data has Wild Applause (IRE) as Dam of Roar, but on checking Pedigreequery, it's Wild Applause(USA).


Should have double checked with Pedigreequery before posting above.

[deathandgravity]

1st: Dunkirk
2nd: MineThat Bird
3rd: Summer Bird

[joanied]

Summer Bird - not handling the track according to reports.

And too much equipment changes! Toe grabs, blinks, shoes?

No thanks. Either an entire make-over will yield astonishing results, or they are grasping at straws here.

Thanks for this post, WT....I knew they added blinkers, but didn't know about toe grabs...does his trainer thing wearing grabs will help him get over the surface there...prob'ly not.
I was watching this colt a bit, but if after 3 wks at Belmont, he's still having track surface troubles...I'll have to count him out for hitting the board.
:)

[Smarty Cide]

did dunkirk finish the derby yet?

[Racehorse]

Wednesday afternoon




1.. Chocolate Candy .... don't know how he'll like the dirt in NY but he surely didn't like it in KY ... I've watched some of his workouts and I am guessing he is a synthetic track runner.

2.. Dunkirk .... gets Velasques aboard this time as I heard Prado wasn't offered the ride after the terrible start in the Derby.... really would've liked to have gotten Gomez back up to make me feel stronger about this colt .... BUT he's gonna be on the board even though he needs more seasoning to stretch out to a mile and a half ... a bit too lightly raced to suit me a lot BUT might win here

3... Mr Hot Stuff ... I'm not picking him to hit the board

4.. Summer Bird ... another one who needs a LOT more experience to go mile and a half ....I thought he looked about the same as he does now in workouts before the Ark Derby and I think these ponies are better than those ..... show at best

5... Luv Gov ... guess D Wayne thinks Mena performed so well to break the maiden on this one that he has him riding .... miracles do happen and that is what it would take to even hit the board here

6.... Charitable Man ... yet another four race colt .... dang that just isn't enough bottom to get built to run mile and a half for a LOTTA money.... horse LOVES NewYork (3outta3) ... broke his maiden by 11 and coulda been 21 ... Kiaran can develop a horse via workouts as well as anyone training today...Garcia knows this colt well too .... odds are way too low for me to really get excited but this horse can win today

7... Mine That Bird .... my sentimental pick cause I am very ford of Calvin (have been for a long time) ... I think he'll go off below 1/1 ... my feeling is that ride by Mike Smith in the Preakness took a lot outta this pony and I am gonna have to move him down to place or even show .... I didn't like the way he looked Jun 1 workout.... looked a wee bit tired

8... Flying Private ... D Wayne just likes to have horses running in the big stuff ... goes back to Leparoux but this one win guy ain't gonna have two when this one is over

9... Miner's Escape.. Nick has got this one peaked out at the right time .... Lescano broke maiden two back ... horse IS fit and ready ... LONGSHOOTER pick from me

10 ... Brave Victory ... much the higher thought of the Zito pair entered ...I don't think this one is as good as Miner's Escape personally

------------------------------------
WIN and EXACTA ... no tris for me
-----------------------------------




On top

2 Dunkirk (needs above 4/1 to make me happy)
6 Charitable Man (needs above 3/1 for me)
9 Miner's Escape ( think this one can make for a BIGGGGG ticket)

On bottom

2 Dunkirk
6 Charitable Man
7 Mine That Bird
9 Miner's Escape

I'll arrive at bets Sat morning after seeing the weather and track condition after some races have been completed at Belmont