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Sea Biscuit
05-19-2009, 04:11 PM
I usually restrict my plays to the Woodbine/Mohawk circuit. When a trainer does not enter a horse that has impressed me in his last outing within the 7 days at my local track (Mohawk) I generally put such a horse in my VS Stable.

Race 4 #3 Rogers Place. In his first start of the season this horse tried to wire the field at Mohawk on May 11 (Race 2) only to be caught at the wire and lose by 1/2 length. My pace meter reading on this horse was a whopping -3.45. Anything over -2.50 the horse is having it tough on the front end. Trained by Stephan Lees who has a win percentage of 27 which is nothing short of spectacular. This is one trainer who you could probably bet every time he enters a horse blindly and still make money. This horse figures to win by open lengths and lay over the field. My oddsline for this horse is 5 cents on the dollar. Meaning he should not pay over $2.10 for a $2 mutuel ticket.

I spoke extensively of such horses in my thread 'Making your own Odds line' sometime back. I am not going to rehash this thread here but if you are interested you can read it on this link

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46540

Bet: Georgian Downs May 19

Race 4 #3 Rogers Place $100 to win.

Another horse from my watch list who I would be looking at is entered at Kawartha Downs tonite (May 19)

Race 6 #5 Mr Ontario

Good Luck to all.

Sea Biscuit.

botster
05-19-2009, 11:11 PM
I usually restrict my plays to the Woodbine/Mohawk circuit. When a trainer does not enter a horse that has impressed me in his last outing within the 7 days at my local track (Mohawk) I generally put such a horse in my VS Stable.

Race 4 #3 Rogers Place. In his first start of the season this horse tried to wire the field at Mohawk on May 11 (Race 2) only to be caught at the wire and lose by 1/2 length. My pace meter reading on this horse was a whopping -3.45. Anything over -2.50 the horse is having it tough on the front end. Trained by Stephan Lees who has a win percentage of 27 which is nothing short of spectacular. This is one trainer who you could probably bet every time he enters a horse blindly and still make money. This horse figures to win by open lengths and lay over the field. My oddsline for this horse is 5 cents on the dollar. Meaning he should not pay over $2.10 for a $2 mutuel ticket.

I spoke extensively of such horses in my thread 'Making your own Odds line' sometime back. I am not going to rehash this thread here but if you are interested you can read it on this link

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46540

Bet: Georgian Downs May 19

Race 4 #3 Rogers Place $100 to win.

Another horse from my watch list who I would be looking at is entered at Kawartha Downs tonite (May 19)

Race 6 #5 Mr Ontario

Good Luck to all.

Sea Biscuit.

Easy winner first over at Georgian:ThmbUp: .

Sea Biscuit
05-19-2009, 11:25 PM
Easy winner first over at Georgian:ThmbUp: .


I don't know what results charts you are looking at Bots,

Rogers Place lost and lost badly. I think my speed figures for Georgian Downs Vs Mohawk have to be revised for sure. I most certainly over estimated the horse after looking at the results. What a downer.:blush:

Down 100 bucks.

Mr Ontario came 2nd at Kawartha

Sea Biscuit

botster
05-19-2009, 11:44 PM
I don't know what results charts you are looking at Bots,

Rogers Place lost and lost badly. I think my speed figures for Georgian Downs Vs Mohawk have to be revised for sure. I most certainly over estimated the horse after looking at the results. What a downer.:blush:

Down 100 bucks.

Mr Ontario came 2nd at Kawartha

Sea Biscuit

My apologies there...Thought he was the #5.That is what I get for trying to multi-task with the audio muted:bang: .

Sea Biscuit
05-20-2009, 07:52 AM
My apologies there...Thought he was the #5.That is what I get for trying to multi-task with the audio muted:bang: .

No problemo there Bots and no need to apologize. I make these silly mistakes all the time.

About Rogers Place I was thinking that the horse must have regressed after that excruciating mile at Mohawk. I will follow this horse for the next two or three weeks and see how he does. If I am right about the regression factor he should not win at least in the next few starts.

Sea Biscuit.