What's the most common type race where....

[Oaklawn]

the betting favorite finishes out of the money? What type of horse, like E, E/P, P, or S is it usually?

[ryesteve]

What type of horse, like E, E/P, P, or S is it usually?Actually, it's the NA favored horse that runs out more than the others. Among the other designations, the ITM performance is practically identical.

[Onion Monster]

I have no evidence to verify this claim, but I'd guess it would be the extreme styles "E" and "S." A true front-runner, Bris seems to label too many speedy types as an "E," could get burned by a hot pace and an "S" could be too far back to clunk-up for the show. If I were trying to beat a favorite in such a manner, I'd stay away from the mid-pack runners and stalkers. They tend to find away to negotiate better trips. This, as I've said, seems to make good sense. But, as is often the case at the track, common sense rarely sniffs a profit.

[Oaklawn]

Mine That Bird has come from the back of the pack to almost win 2 straight triple crown races, and the Ult. pp on brisnet still has him as a E/P horse? I thought that was strange.

I am new, so are these designations E, E/P, P, and S common designations or just with Brisnet?

[fmolf]

Mine That Bird has come from the back of the pack to almost win 2 straight triple crown races, and the Ult. pp on brisnet still has him as a E/P horse? I thought that was strange.

I am new, so are these designations E, E/P, P, and S common designations or just with Brisnet?
you can make these designations yourself.. an early type is usually first or second no further from the lead than 2 lengths....an e/p is the most versatile usually has what is called tactical speed can go to the front or lay back in the second group of horses and pounce near the middle or end....p types sit off the pace in the second tier of horsesthree to maybe five off at the first call......s horses or closers are one run types like mine that bird that sit near the back of the pack and make one late run at the pacesetters.....now just figure out who has the best style and can run the fastest the longest from the ideal spot during the race and bingo you have a winner! :lol:

[Bettowin]

Early pace horses going from MSW to Allowance races. I have no data to back this up but seem to see it a lot.

[Oaklawn]

Early pace horses going from MSW to Allowance races. I have no data to back this up but seem to see it a lot.

So, this is a horse that won (maybe impressively) in MSW and is a favorite against other winners in the allowance? So, the step up in class is too much or first time with other winners too much?

[CBedo]

I just happen to have most of the 2008 data from Mountaineer sitting in front of me, so I just did a quick analysis of the BRIS run style & favorites.

Interestingly, I found that as you would expect (given Mnr's propensity of speed dominating), of the favorites, the impact values were slightly positive for the E & E/Ps to win (1.03 & 1.01) with the P & S types being negative (0.94 & 0.96). I was somewhat surprised that the IV was positive for the NA types (much smaller sample) as well (1.07).

BUT, if you look at ITM finishes, not just the wins, the numbers change. The impact value for E, E/P move down a bit to about 1 (0.99 & 1.00) with the P moving up to 1.00 and the S types jumping all the way up to 1.05. The NA types who were so good in the win, dropped precipitously and are only 0.89 for ITM.

Somewhat interesting I think.

[Oaklawn]

I just happen to have most of the 2008 data from Mountaineer sitting in front of me, so I just did a quick analysis of the BRIS run style & favorites.

Interestingly, I found that as you would expect (given Mnr's propensity of speed dominating), of the favorites, the impact values were slightly positive for the E & E/Ps to win (1.03 & 1.01) with the P & S types being negative (0.94 & 0.96). I was somewhat surprised that the IV was positive for the NA types (much smaller sample) as well (1.07).

BUT, if you look at ITM finishes, not just the wins, the numbers change. The impact value for E, E/P move down a bit to about 1 (0.99 & 1.00) with the P moving up to 1.00 and the S types jumping all the way up to 1.05. The NA types who were so good in the win, dropped precipitously and are only 0.89 for ITM.

Somewhat interesting I think.

Thanks for the data CBedo. On a speed bias track I guess it's typical for a closer to get in the money but not be able to get past the front runner, so that makes sense. What does IV stand for?

[CBedo]

Thanks for the data CBedo. On a speed bias track I guess it's typical for a closer to get in the money but not be able to get past the front runner, so that makes sense. What does IV stand for?
IV is impact value. Basically, it's a statistic that measures the percentage of winners that have a certain characteristic divided by the percentage of starters that have the characteristic. So a measure greater than 1 means more likely than random.

[cmoore]

Mine That Bird has come from the back of the pack to almost win 2 straight triple crown races, and the Ult. pp on brisnet still has him as a E/P horse? I thought that was strange.

I am new, so are these designations E, E/P, P, and S common designations or just with Brisnet?

His running style will probably be changed to an S style in his next race..Especially with two big runs from last..

[cmoore]

the betting favorite finishes out of the money? What type of horse, like E, E/P, P, or S is it usually?

A P or S style runner that has shown no early speed and there are only 1 or 2 E/Ep style runners in race..

[JustRalph]

His running style will probably be changed to an S style in his next race..Especially with two big runs from last..

exactly right........those bris pp's are still looking at those Woodbine races and weighting them equal to the most recent races

[DRIVEWAY]

His running style will probably be changed to an S style in his next race..Especially with two big runs from last..

In the Belmont will MTB maintain his "S" style or revert back to "EP". When I look at his unexpected victory in the Derby, three considerations come into mind.

1.) The off-track
2.) The Distance
3.) The accidental change in running style

The Preakness definitely validated number 2 above. It made number 1 moot. But the Style question still remains open to me at least.

In the Belmont the "EP" style is preferred. If MTB rise to fame is based upon Distance and Distance only then a change to "EP" will not hurt him.

Won't it be ironic if prior to the Derby/Preakness he has an "EP" style in the BRIS data and then ran with an "S" style, only to have it change to an "S" style prior to Belmont and then run an "EP" style!

Stay tuned.

[CBedo]

In the Belmont will MTB maintain his "S" style or revert back to "EP". When I look at his unexpected victory in the Derby, three considerations come into mind.

1.) The off-track
2.) The Distance
3.) The accidental change in running style

The Preakness definitely validated number 2 above. It made number 1 moot. But the Style question still remains open to me at least.

In the Belmont the "EP" style is preferred. If MTB rise to fame is based upon Distance and Distance only then a change to "EP" will not hurt him.

Won't it be ironic if prior to the Derby/Preakness he has an "EP" style in the BRIS data and then ran with an "S" style, only to have it change to an "S" style prior to Belmont and then run an "EP" style!

Stay tuned.
He's an S for sure, even at 1 1/2 miles. His trainers, his riders, and others connected with him have all stated that "now that we have his running style figured out," telling us that he's a much different horse as a one run closer. I think he could compete as an EP horse back in his Woodbine days because the competition wasn't as stiff, but when he started trying to run with the big boys, he couldn't compete as an EP.

[46zilzal]

the betting favorite finishes out of the money? What type of horse, like E, E/P, P, or S is it usually?
there is no standard but deep closers are a supreme disadvanatage

[cmoore]

In the Belmont will MTB maintain his "S" style or revert back to "EP". When I look at his unexpected victory in the Derby, three considerations come into mind.

1.) The off-track
2.) The Distance
3.) The accidental change in running style

The Preakness definitely validated number 2 above. It made number 1 moot. But the Style question still remains open to me at least.

In the Belmont the "EP" style is preferred. If MTB rise to fame is based upon Distance and Distance only then a change to "EP" will not hurt him.

Won't it be ironic if prior to the Derby/Preakness he has an "EP" style in the BRIS data and then ran with an "S" style, only to have it change to an "S" style prior to Belmont and then run an "EP" style!

Stay tuned.

Your right..If the race has a lack of early speed or the fractions are likely to be very slow..He just might sit closer then usual. We'll see..

[Oaklawn]

there is no standard but deep closers are a supreme disadvanatage

Well, I guess this is reason for the post. I read in various places that the key to being a successful handicapper should be to "identify the false favorite." Which I guess, if favorites win 1/3, then 2/3 are false favorites. I suppose I'm looking for information on how to identify the true favorite from the false one, which is what everybody else is also trying to do.

[46zilzal]

Well, I guess this is reason for the post. I read in various places that the key to being a successful handicapper should be to "identify the false favorite." Which I guess, if favorites win 1/3, then 2/3 are false favorites. I suppose I'm looking for information on how to identify the true favorite from the false one, which is what everybody else is also trying to do.


the false favorite is distinct to the pace scenario of the contest and there are no hard and fast rules here.

Also a deep closer is the better choice at some track some days on some surfaces..

Each race is a new mosaic of running styles and form cycles: the same 12 horses could run versus one another every three weeks throughout the year and the winner would rarely be the same horse twice.

[46zilzal]

Well, I guess this is reason for the post. I read in various places that the key to being a successful handicapper should be to "identify the false favorite." Which I guess, if favorites win 1/3, then 2/3 are false favorites. I suppose I'm looking for information on how to identify the true favorite from the false one, which is what everybody else is also trying to do.
No those 2/3's are NOT false favorites but favorites that lost.

False favorites can often be the 2nd or 3rd choices as well

[CBedo]

Your right..If the race has a lack of early speed or the fractions are likely to be very slow..He just might sit closer then usual. We'll see..
Of course if there's a lack of pace, he'll be closer, but as far as his style, he's a closer for sure. His best style is to lope around and then coming running the last 3/8ths of a mile.

Here's a quote I just found at drf about his style, from his trainer:
"But with a horse who comes from last, there's always a concern you're going to hit traffic. And we can't change his running style, because then he won't finish."