formula's derby pick

[formula_2002]

Peace Rules min odds 9/2.

Good Luck

Joe M

[kenwoodall]

My trifecta: Buddy Gill, Peace Rules, Tenmostwanted.

[Rick]

Peace Rules, Sir Cherokee, and Indian Express. Empire Maker is only 7th best according to my ratings. If he's really 6/5 you could probably bet everything else in the field.

[freeneasy]

peace rules / buddy gil with the
2,3,4,11,16 with the
2,3,4,5,6,8,9,11,16
what no super!

[Rick]

Sir Cherokee scratched. Make it Peace Rules, Indian Express, and Brancusi (5, 9, 2). That would make a very nice trifecta.

[Zaf]

My Pick for the derby is INDIAN EXPRESS.

If he scratches my alternate is SCHRIMSHAW.

I have already bet $10 WP on Indian Express

and $2 excata box 4-9-17
and $2 trifecta box 4-9-17

I guess that insures I won't get shut out :D

ZAFONIC

[JohnB]

Peace Rules
Funny Cide
Indian Express

[midnight]

Funny Cide and Eye of the Tiger, in that order. I don't see Empire Maker hitting the board.

[Kentucky Bred]

According to WHAS in Louisville, Churchill is reported a dramatic change in current odds after the first day of betting from a massive crowd at the Oaks. Empire Maker is now 8-1 (which blew my mind) and Ten Most is 9-2 with nearly all horses down from their ML except Funny Cide and Brancusi.


Going from memory

Buddy Gil 5-1

Atswhat...6-1

Peace Rules 6-1

Indian Express 8-1, I think

Just curious. Will the trend continue?

Oh, by the way, if the trend did continue, would you consider changing your picks?

Kentucky Bred

[LureHSH]

My universal system gave me these picks with a click of a button.

6-5-12-9-8-2. And my "Budlight Longshot Special" will be the 15.

Lure

[rmania]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and pick Empire Maker ;)

Occasionally the best horse DOES win and all BS aside, this is the best horse hands down.

Frankel holds all the aces and a win for Juddmonte Farms would be a big plus for the industry.

Only question is.. what would be a fair price?

[ceejay]

My betting selections are predicated by the fact that I'm alive in the Oaks-Derby double with 4, 7, and 9.

Bets:
$1Ex 2,9,12,16 with all ($60 total)
$1 Tri box 2,9,12,16 ($24)
$1 Tri 12,16 with 12, 16 with all ($28)

[tboles]

Computer selections for Derby
Looks like a tight race to the end

6-12-3-16-1

Attaching file...derby03.rtf

[LureHSH]

Some picks:

Haw is the toughest track for my systems, but here goes:

1.) 2-1-6-5
2.) 3-6-8-9
3.) 9-4-1-3
4.) 6-5-1-8
5.) 4-3-1-7
6.) 2-1-7-9
7.) 3-8-4-6
8.) 4-6-7-8
9.) 11-5-1-8
10.) 2-9-1-6
11.) derby
12.) 5-3-8-1

Aqu:

1.) 1-7-8-4
2.) 1-3-2-5
3.) 6-5-2-1
4.) 6-1-2-7
5.) 10-1-9-4
6.) 8-7-3-9
7.) 4-5-2-6
8.) 8-6-7-12
9.) 2-1-3-5
10.) 7-1-6-2

Beu:

1.) 1-3-2-4
2.) 1-5-6-4
3.) 6-2-7-3
4.) 1-6-2-7
5.) 1-6-3-2
6.) 10-7-12-5
7.) 4-2-3-6
8.) 2-6-8-3
9.) 6-4-2-7
10.) 8-9-3-6
11.) 3-7-8-4


Hol:

1.) 1-5-7-2
2.) 3-4-5-2
3.) 7-9-3-10
4.) 3-5-4-9
5.) 8-5-7-2
6.) 1-3-4-6
7.) 4-5-7-2
8.) 3-2-4-1
9.) 4-5-7-2

LS:

1.) 8-7-5-1
2.) 6-4-3-7
3.) 2-6-10-1
4.) 4-5-9-2
5.) 2-11-8-5
6.) 1-6-7-8
7.) 3-6-5-10
8.) 7-5-10-8
9.) 6-2-3-1
10.) 4-1-10-11
11.) 5-11-8-9

Penn:

1.) 9-2-8-4
2.) 8-1-2-5
3.) 8-2-5-9
4.) 2-1-3-5
5.) 1-3-7-5
6.) 4-5-7-3
7.) 3-2-1-4
8.) 6-7-3-1
9.) 3-5-4-1

Lure

[tboles]

With the scratch of Sir Cherokee here are the new selections

6-12-16-1-5

attaching updated file

[anotherdave]

Peace Rules, Scrimshaw, Buddy Gil

AD

[GR1@HTR]

Going for the bomb. Will Key Eye of the Tiger with Outa Here and All in the tri.

[Tom]

Empire Maker and 10Most Wanted
Box and bet both win

[andicap]

Empire Maker at 7-2?????? Everyone's afraid of his foot.

Well, my top three choices are EM, Ten Most and Funny Cide.

at 5 or 6-1 I'll bet Ten across the board and fiddle with some small exactas I'm sure to lose.

FC/EM and Ten Most and reverse

EM/Scrim, Indian

Ten/with a few horses


I know at the odds I should bet more on Funny, but I'm afraid of his breeding.

[tboles]

PA....

Did my computer pick attachments not arrive on your end?
Just curious.....

Tony

[PaceAdvantage]

Did not realize any attachments were sent....sorry....will post now, but I realize it's too late...

[formula_2002]

couple of 6/12 winners here.

congrats

Joe M

[Zaf]

Originally posted by tboles
With the scratch of Sir Cherokee here are the new selections

6-12-16-1-5

attaching updated file


NICE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

ZAFONIC

[LureHSH]

My universal system gave me these picks with a click of a button.

6-5-12

I realize there were a few people that had these picks too, but one of the reasons why I like the HSH program and the ability to make systems is that I got the trifecta and almost straight by just clicking on a couple of buttons. I know many of you crunch some big numbers and did a lot of research and got the same horses, but I like the idea of doing the same thing in less than a minute.

The other thing I like about the program is that with a single click of the button the porgram gave these picks and ratings:

12=81, 6=75, 5=60.

Then using a system I made up based on only one day of races at CD from last Saturday, the 26th, I improved upon the program's picks. I reailze that this is only one race but I think the results are still suggestive of the strength of the program. I noticed that there were many different picks from a lot of very good handicappers with large datbases and a lot of experience with their programs and yet there were some people who said that "empire" didn't have much of a chance or was ranked poorly in their handicapping results.

Well as much as I hate favorites, I think you would still have to rate the horse as a top contender. I would never bet a favorite to win in the derby, but I would include it in the exotics and in a list of contenders. In HSH on the "Composite" screen, there are 14 factors listed, and only 3 horses in the whole field had more than one - #1 rating. Horse 12 had 10, 6 had 4 and the 5 had 2 #1 ratings.

I have a about 25 systems that I'm experimenting with and I just now decided to run the derby through each system. Remember that all of these systems except the one I used yesterday were created without any CD races at all and all of the systems are only based upon about 200 races in total. I found 4 other systems that picked the trifecta straight. I still have a lot of learning to do. Maybe one of these 4 systems will prove to be a better CD system than what I used yesterday.

I am familiar enough with some of the other programs to know that they have some good predictive factors too. I'm curious which programs out there had the top 3 horses rated in the top 3 of the key factor(s) such as the "K" ratings in HTR and other similar key factors for each program respectively. If anyone wants to list their program's key factor(s) and the value of this factor for each horse in the Derby, I think it would be interesting for comparison.



Thanks,

Lure

[LureHSH]

Just another thought about these systems…you can personalize them to make selections depending upon how you typically wager. If you are a strict win bettor, then you want a system that picks the most winners on top and you don’t care about anything else. On the other hand if you are a Pick 3 player or a variation of this wager, then you may prefer a system that picks the highest percentage of winners in the top 2 or 3, but not necessarily the most winners on top. If you play the exactas and trifectas, then you will want a system that has the most trifectas in the top 4 picks even if the winner isn’t usually on top.

I looked at 7 other systems that I already had in place (6 of these had the trifecta in the Derby) and I found 4 of those that outperformed the system that I used. My system got 4 winners for 33%. I typically have my systems list the top 4 selections. Looking at only the top 4 picks per system, my system had 5 exactas and 2 trifectas. I haven’t looked at all the systems yet, but so far I have found 2 other systems that had 5 winners on top so if you only bet to win, then you would prefer one of these systems. I have one system that picked 5 winners, 6 exactas, 3 trifectas, and 8 winners in the top 3 picks per race, which is nice when you bet multiple horses to win as I do. Half of the few systems that I looked at had 8 races with the winner in the top 3. I had one system that picked 4 trifectas.

So I see a lot of potential here and something for everyone depending upon how one wagers. Right now, I’m going to concentrate on systems that pick the most winners in the top 3. But I may eventually design different systems for different wagering methods once I get more data to research. The bottom line is that a system that I think is great, might not work for someone else if they primarily bet trifectas. But the systems are very flexible and can be used in a variety of ways.

Still experimenting...

Lure