Mountaineer 05/17

[redeye007]

Race 1
:1: with 7-5-3-8

Race 2
:7: with 3-5-2-6

Race 3
:1: with 6-5-4-8

Race 4
:2: with 7-3-5-6

race 5
:1: with 3-7-8-2

race 10
:2: with 3-4-7-10

pick 3 races 3-4-5
:1: :6:
:2:
:1: :3: :7: :8: :2:

race 10 ex tri super :2: with 3-4-7-10

good luck :)

[redeye007]

I think I should play a second ex tri super in the 10th at mnr

:7: 10/1 with :3: :5: :4: :1: this one should have good odds :)

[CBedo]

Race 2
:7: with 3-5-2-6
What a strange race this is. 3 of 4 of my contenders haven't run in forever (2,7,6) and the 5, although very consistent, really hasn't run a number big enough to win a normal race at this level. good luck

[CBedo]

Race 3
:1: with 6-5-4-8
Looks like whoever doesn't fall over before the end wins this race. My contenders (I guess) are :1::5::8:. The :1: seems to have a running style that would fit this race better than the others have shown lately, but I woudln't take less than 7/2 though. I think this race is a pass for me.

[CBedo]

I'll be watching for Clancey to come back. He definately need a race, and I thought he ran pretty well considering.

[Valupix]

R9: 1 & 9

[CBedo]

I think I should play a second ex tri super in the 10th at mnr

:7: 10/1 with :3: :5: :4: :1: this one should have good odds :)
I'll go :3: / :2::4::7::10:

[CBedo]

I'll go :3: / :2::4::7::10:
Overall, not too many bets today at Mnr for me, and the horses I liked were low priced overlays, but good way to end.

RESULT: :3: :10: :2: :7:
$2 Win 5.80 (they really pounded his odds at the end)
$2 Double 15.20
$2 Exacta 41.80 (almost left the 10 out of the exacta, shoo!)
& the perfect way to end:
$1 Superfecta $216.90

[redeye007]

Overall, not too many bets today at Mnr for me, and the horses I liked were low priced overlays, but good way to end.

RESULT: :3: :10: :2: :7:
$2 Win 5.80 (they really pounded his odds at the end)
$2 Double 15.20
$2 Exacta 41.80 (almost left the 10 out of the exacta, shoo!)
& the perfect way to end:
$1 Superfecta $216.90

nice going. that was a decent score. what do you make of the 60/1 winning the 5th?

[CBedo]

nice going. that was a decent score. what do you make of the 60/1 winning the 5th?
I actually had passed the race. It just seemed like it could be random result type race.

There are two factors that when both are true seem to make things illogical (for me). The first is how the field stacks up on speed ratings compared to the par. When no one when can run within a couple lengths of par, weird things happen. The two best horses on numbers (the two heavy favorites) both were just below my cutoff. Usually, some horse that hasn't shown the best numbers will somehow move forward (towards the par somewhat), and beat those types, so for me they're not playable, especially at low odds. (To explain this phenomenon, think about a race where there are 10 horses. One of them runs 100 speed rating every race. The others usually run 90, but every once in a while each will run better than 100. Individually, none of these are good bets to beat the consistent 100 horse, but as a group, it's very likely that one will fire that day and win. The actual math would be something like you give each of the inconsistent ones a 15% chance to run better than a 100. So the chance they don't run better is 85%. The chance that NONE of them run better is that 85%^9 (the number of inconsistent horses) which means the super consistent horse will only win this race just over 20% of the time--not a good proposition at low odds.)

The second part is the early pace scenario. As you know, at Mnr, it seems to be the key to the world usually, and when I get it wrong, my selections are terrible. I just couldn't figure out who really wanted the lead, and who had the ability to get it. By my numbers, there were 6 or 7 who all kind of ran the same types of numbers.

When both of these factors are present, it makes sense to me why the results never make sense! I wonder if you just bet the five highest priced horses (or some variant of this approach), what the returns would be, hehe.

Looking back at the winner with the benefit of hindsight, I can see why he might have a shot, but I don't think there is anyway I would have ever landed on him.

Sorry for the long rambling post, you probably just wanted me to say "I couldn't get the winner" but that would have been too easy.

[redeye007]

man I should have hammered that 1-6 exacta in the 3rd. paid $28@$2

[CBedo]

I missed betting that as well. I thought the 1 was overbet a bit, but that was a great price for the exacta.